With Selection Sunday coming up in just a few short weeks, fans of teams across the country are starting to analyze their team’s results looking at “quality wins” and “bad losses” (Aren’t they all?), digging into obscure computer formulas that analyze strength of schedule, margin of victory, and even more esoteric statistics. However, sometimes it is better to keep it simple. One of the better examples of this comes from Stephen Greenwell (h/t to Patrick Marshall of Bluejay Basketball for pointing this out) who decided to look at the simplest correlation of them all: wins and NCAA tournament bids.

Steven looked at the results from the 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08 seasons and stratified teams based on the number of wins they had that year regardless of their strength of schedule or any other factor. The results are below:

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.  He’ll be regularly out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.

Here’s the latest edition of RTC Bracketology from our resident bracketologist Zach. This was created before the Pitt-UConn game last night so it does not reflect that game or any others from last night.

RTC Bracket as of February 16th

More on the key games this week and a rationale of the seeds and snubs after the jump.

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.   He’ll be regularly out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.

Welcome to the first edition of Your Bubble Has Burst here on the new and improved RTC. I’m your resident bracketologist Zach Hayes here to give you a midweek update on the state of the all-important bubble, my favorite topic of conversation this time of year. I’ve classified every team in NCAA contention under four categories: locks (certainly in the field), comfortably in (they can pretty much depend on their name being called barring an epic collapse), work left to do (teams that need to win games to ensure their spot or risk being left out) and on the brink (teams not quite on the bubble that need to win and win often immediately). Let’s get right into it:

Note: all computer numbers prior to Thursday’s games.

Atlantic Coast

Locks: The three ACC locks- Duke, North Carolina and Clemson– are all likely top-four seeds in the NCAA Tournament. They boast RPIs in the top 15, with Duke landing at #4 and North Carolina at #5. The Tar Heels victory Wednesday in Durham drops Duke to a likely #2 seed with Clemson in the 3-4 range. These three teams should stay around this spot and are all Final Four threats in the top-heavy ACC.

Comfortably in: Wake Forest’s loss to their fourth unranked ACC team pushes them down a level. We’d still bet on them being a top-four seed on Selection Sunday, but you never know with this amount of youth, inexperience and inconsistency. Wins over Duke and Carolina help tremendously. Florida State has established themselves as a likely top-6 seed in the field by nearly defeating #1 seeds Pitt and North Carolina at home along with a huge comeback win at Clemson on Saturday. They also have excellent computer totals (20 RPI, 32 SOS) and 4 wins against the RPI top 50. The Seminoles need to stay focused due to a challenging schedule down the stretch, with vengeful Clemson and desperate-for-wins Miami and Virginia Tech visiting Tallahassee and trips to Wake, Duke, BC and Virginia Tech. There are no softies down the stretch.

Work left to do: Boston College could have used a win over Clemson Tuesday at home; instead, they risk going 0-4 (Duke and @ Miami) during a crucial ACC stretch. Luckily, they finish with Florida State and Georgia Tech at home with a visit to NC State, so they should be able to end strong and feel fairly good. Virginia Tech is aided by Duke and North Carolina visiting Blacksburg down the stretch, but let’s not forget those are games against Duke and North Carolina. They must take advantage of games at home vs. Georgia Tech and Florida State, along with a road contest at ACC punching bag Virginia. Miami is only 4-6 in the conference but seems to be improving with a beatdown of Wake Forest and near win at Cameron. They sit squarely on the bubble but end the campaign with BC, @Virginia, @Georgia Tech and NC State, four very winnable games. It could come down to the ACC Tournament for these four teams.

On the brink: Believe it or not, 15-8 (4-5) Maryland is still alive. They absolutely MUST beat Virginia Tech at home on Valentine’s Day to have a chance. Then they’d hope to win at NC State and Georgia Tech while stealing a home game against the top 3- Wake, Duke and North Carolina. This is a very high hill to climb for Gary Williams who I’m sure wishes he could have another shot at Miami and Florida State (two last second losses). They really hope to get to 8-8 and make an ACC Tournament run.

Big East

Locks: The Big East currently boasts two projected #1 seeds- RPI #1 Pittsburgh and #3 Connecticut. It’s extremely likely the Big East will garner two #1 seeds on Selection Sunday, and I’d be shocked if Pitt and Connecticut weren’t the two represented at the top of the bracket given their non-conference performance (as opposed to Louisville) and overall talent level. Louisville has rebounded nicely to a #2 seed in the projected field and have a favorable yet dangerous schedule down the stretch with road games against Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Georgetown and West Virginia (combined: 18-25). Villanova made tremendous progress towards moving to a 2-seed with their convincing win against Marquette last night. They hold a 10 RPI and 22 SOS down the stretch, while Marquette is trending the other way with a horrifying schedule (UConn, @Pittsburgh, @Louisville, Syracuse, @Georgetown remaining).

Comfortably in: Syracuse has hit a rough patch lately, but still should feel pretty good about where they stand. A 22 RPI and 21 SOS are solid numbers. They still have home games vs. Cincinnati, Rutgers and Georgetown with a visit to St. John’s on the slate.

Work left to do: West Virginia didn’t qualify for the comfortably in category because of their 5-6 conference record, but I’ll be shocked if they don’t make the field. They have a great chance in every single game the rest of the way with road contests at Rutgers, Cincinnati and South Florida and Louisville posing the toughest home threat. Their 15 RPI and 6 SOS are excellent totals. Bob Huggins’ former school, Cincinnati, still needs more wins to make up for a lacking non-conference resume. The win at Georgetown on Saturday was huge as are home games vs. West Virginia and Louisville near the end of February. Providence holds a 7-5 record in the conference with word before the season that 10-8 should be enough. Considering they have two games vs. Rutgers and Notre Dame at home, it may happen. Georgetown is also lurking as a team that probably needs to get to 9-9 and win twice in New York. They’ll have to sweep Marquette, Louisville and DePaul at home and steal a game on the road, a daunting task.

On the brink: Seton Hall has won five in a row to creep within bubble territory, fattening up against inferior competition. With their next three vs. Connecticut and at Marquette and pesky St. John’s, it could end soon. Much like Georgetown, the goal is to find a way to get to 9-9 and make a Big East Tournament run. Notre Dame is 3-7 and needs a miracle to find themselves in the field with a 79 RPI and weak non-conference SOS. They also play road games against Connecticut, West Virginia and Providence.

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Allen R of Houston Basketball Junkies is the RTC correspondent for Conference USA.

Conference Standings.

1. Memphis:   20-3 (8-0)
2. Tulsa:   17-7 (7-2)
3. UAB:   16-8 (6-3)
4. Houston:   14-7 (5-3)
5. UCF:   15-8 (5-4)
6. UTEP:   13-9 (4-4)
7. East Carolina:   12-10 (4-5)
8. Southern Miss:   13-9 (3-5)
9. Marshall:   11-13 (3-6) 
10. Tulane:   9-13 (3-6)
11. Rice:   7-15 (2-6)
12. SMU:   7-14 (1-7)

Slowly but surely, Conference USA basketball has rounded back into the form that’s earned it the nickname of: Memphis and the 11 dwarves in recent seasons.  I don’t want to completely trash every other team in the league, because there are some good teams and good players out there. Just because things are so ‘top-heavy’ in CUSA basketball, that’s not an excuse to completely ignore everyone else.  But the underlying fact remains: nobody besides Memphis has played well enough up to this point to earn a trip to the big dance.

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Allen R of Houston Basketball Junkies is the RTC correspondent for Conference USA.

1. Memphis: 18-3 (7-0)
2. UCF: 15-6 (5-2)
3. Tulsa: 15-7 (5-2)
4. UTEP: 13-8 (4-3)
5. UAB: 14-8 (4-3)
6. Houston: 12-7 (3-3)
7. Southern Miss: 13-7 (3-3)
8. Tulane: 9-11 (3-4)
9. East Carolina: 10-10 (2-5)
10. Marshall: 9-12 (2-5) 
11. Rice: 7-14 (2-5)
12. SMU: 6-13 (1-6)

“It’s the same old song…”

That isn’t just a line from a classic ‘Motown’ song, but the story of Conference USA basketball summed up in five choice words.

Some things change, but as last week proved, there are some things that always remain the same for a while.

1.) Don’t Boo the Aubrey: In his first game coming off the one game suspension by Conference USA, Houston guard Aubrey Coleman responded to boos and jeers from the Memphis student section by scoring 35 points. The only problem was none of Coleman’s teammates showed up and they combined for a total of 33 points, as the Tigers beat the Cougars 83-68 at the Fed Ex Forum. It was quite evident last Saturday that even in a down year, Memphis has far more talent than even the upper-tier CUSA teams like Houston.

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A few notes for this week’s edition:

– Louisville is a 1-seed because they’re the projected Big East champions. This could change in less than 24 hours should they fall to Connecticut at home, a very plausible scenario. Both Louisville and Marquette are undefeated in the conference, but I gave the edge to the Cardinals because I feel they’re the slightly better team. It’s my bracket and I’ll do what I want.

– As much as some will be screaming for Wake to garner the final #1 seed over Duke because of the win on Wednesday, the RPI advantage (Duke: 1, Wake: 13) and 1.5 game advantage in the ACC standings stand taller. Wake and North Carolina grab 2 seeds.

– One thing I anticipated that came to fruition when doing this bracket is the amount of muddled mediocre teams in the 4 seed to 7 seed range of the bracket. It seems as if just a couple outcomes could change vault a team like Kansas from a 4 to a 7/8 or California the other direction. Kansas and Villanova made huge progress this week in the seeding because so many teams in that very range faltered.

– The two conferences that seem to always shift projected winners from week to week are the SEC and Pac-10. It was difficult to deny South Carolina the SEC automatic bid and subsequent leap to a 7-seed after they beat Kentucky in Rupp (5 seed slide for the Wildcats this week). In the Pac-10, UCLA had an impressive couple of games while Arizona State collapsed, California slid and Washington lost to Arizona. The Bruins re-claim the Pac-10 auto bid and a 3-seed, jumping 3 seeds from a week ago.

– Penn State makes their first appearance in the field as a 10-seed. Their 71 RPI and 128 SOS stand out as lacking, but a 6-3 Big Ten record and win at Michigan State and home vs. climbing Purdue help greatly.

– The highest rated RPI team to miss the field? You probably guessed correctly with Georgetown at 17. Oklahoma State missed with a 27 RPI and the highest team to not even be remotely considered was UAB at 44. Disappointing season for Mike Davis.

– Michigan and Wisconsin finally fell out of the bracket. Both still have a chance to make a run, though. Michigan has the wins over Duke and UCLA to boast, while Wisconsin has the #37 RPI and #3 SOS. The Badgers have a crucial week ahead.

– Notre Dame has a long way to go to get back into the bracket. 12-8 (3-6) with a  77 RPI and just 2 wins over the RPI top 100 is a very porous resume at this point. They look like an NIT team.

– Tennessee desperately needed that win over Florida at home and pulled it out. A 19 RPI and 2 SOS with a victory over Marquette will help them. Improved guard play and defensive effort and they’re not out of the picture for the SEC championship.

– Just when you think Arizona is dead, they sweep the Washington schools at home and are lurking.

– Saint Mary’s still remained solidly in the field after their loss to Gonzaga, but fell out following the blowout loss to Portland on Saturday. They have the 179 SOS and zero wins vs.. the top 50. With Patrick Mills out for 4 weeks, they may miss the madness.

– As always, the results/predictions for winners of each game are just for fun.

Last Four In: Providence, San Diego State, Utah, Virginia Tech
Last Four Out: Georgetown, Saint Mary’s, Northwestern, Miami (FL)
Next Four Out: Oklahoma State, Michigan, BYU, Arizona

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Allen R of Houston Basketball Junkies is the RTC correspondent for Conference USA.

1. Memphis: 15-3 (5-0)
2. Houston: 12-5 (3-1)
3. UCF: 13-6 (3-2)
4. UAB: 13-7 (3-2)
5. Tulsa: 13-7 (3-2)
6. Southern Miss: 12-6 (2-2)
7. Tulane: 8-10 (2-2)
8. UTEP: 11-8 (2-3)
9. East Carolina: 10-8 (2-3)
10. Marshall: 9-10 (2-3)
11. SMU: 6-11 (1-4)
12. Rice: 6-13 (1-4)

There wasn’t any lack of excitement this week and in some cases that excitement was also coupled with a bit of controversy.

In fact the Houston basketball program tested the adage that “any publicity is good publicity” during this past weekend when they played Arizona. However there were other storylines from the past week of action, albeit a bit less controversial than the aforementioned incident.

1.) Stompgate ’09:  The unfortunate incident that made the most headlines this past weekend began with Arizona forward Chase Budinger drawing a charge call after a collision with Houston guard Aubrey Coleman. After the conclusion of that play, Coleman stepped on Budinger’s face in an act that looked equal parts negligent and malicious. Naturally this act enraged Budinger who was assessed a technical foul for his retaliation following the stepping. But the worst punishment was saved for Coleman, who was ejected for the flagrant foul. After watching the video of the incident and the reactions of both players, I’m convinced that Coleman deserved to be ejected and could have shown a lot more remorse immediately following the act. But the act itself was in my opinion, an attempt to show dominance over Budinger by stepping over him instead of around him. Something went horribly wrong in between and now we have a major headline story. It’s worth noting that Coleman’s had no other incidents this year at Houston or on his previous team at Southwest Mississippi Junior College. In the end, before rushing to crucify the young Mr. Coleman, we all must think of the “he who is without sin” line.  Following the game, Coleman gave what appeared to be a sincere and remorseful apology.

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Quick… what’s the term for the opposite of good basketball IQ?  A Stephon Marbury?  What do you call a player who consistently makes abominable, indefensible and atrocious decisions on the court?  A Derrick Coleman?  Well, step aside Bonehead Brethren of Years Past, because there’s a new sheriff in town, and his name is Jamelle Horne.  The Arizona sophomore, through his complete and utter obliviousness at the end of two key games this year, may have singlehandedly ensured that his school will not play in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in a quarter-century. 

"Oh No! I Did It Again!" (photo credit: Lori Shepler/LA Times)

Arizona now sits at 11-7 and eighth place in the Pac-10 (2-4) after getting swept by the SoCal schools over the weekend.  Their RPI is currently #52, the ship appears to be taking on water, and at this point it’ll take a herculean effort for Russ Pennell to get Arizona back into the mix as a realistic at-large candidate.  But what if instead of 11-7 (2-4), the Wildcats were currently sitting at 13-5 (3-3)?  You’d have to figure they’d be getting votes in both polls as well as being talked about as a dangerous team in the second half of the season. 

This is where Jamelle Horne comes in.  The Arizona wing was lambasted back in November for intentionally fouling a UAB player 60 feet from the basket in a game that was tied 71-71 with one second left.   UAB hit one of two free throws and won the game.  Flash forward to Saturday night at USC.  In a game where Arizona led most of the way, USC had clawed back to tie the score at 64-all when Nic Wise threw the ball away.  USC’s Daniel Hackett grabbed the errant pass and started upcourt.  From the Arizona Star:

Immediately after Hackett crossed the midcourt line, Horne ran into the USC guard with 1.2 seconds left. Having only a prayer of a chance at a game-winning field goal, Hackett instead was given two free throws. He made the first one and that was all the Trojans needed.

We were watching this game live, and let’s be a little clearer than the reporter’s account above.  Horne didn’t just accidentally “run into” Hackett.  He deliberately ran into Hackett in an attempt to cause the referee to blow the whistle.  It wasn’t an intentional foul in the sense that you grab a guy to impede his progress, but it was an end-of-game “intentional” foul designed to stop the clock and put the player on the line.  The kind of foul you only make when you think you’re behind and you need to get the ball back.   (we respectfully disagree with this UA blog’s assessment that the foul was ticky-tack)

Problem was, for Arizona and Horne, the game was (once again) TIED. 

If we were Russ Pennell, we’d strongly consider putting Horne through a battery of memory tests to determine if he has the mental capacity to remember something for longer than two seconds.  Either that, or just sit the kid down at the very end of his bench for the last minute of every game.  It’s simply astonishing that the same player could make such an egregious error twice in a single year, costing his team two Ls as a result.   Time and score, time and score, time and score…  how many times did we hear that growing up?   Either Horne really is not a very bright bulb… or he’s gotta have something else going on. 

note: we couldn’t find video of the incident, so this walkthrough vodcast will have to suffice.

Allen R of Houston Basketball Junkies is the RTC correspondent for Conference USA.

1. Memphis: 14-3 (4-0)
2. Houston: 11-4 (2-1)
3. Southern Miss: 11-5 (2-1)
4. Tulsa: 12-6 (2-1)
5. UTEP: 11-6 (2-1)
6. UCF: 11-6 (1-2)
7. UAB: 10-7 (1-2)
8. East Carolina: 9-7 (1-2)
9. Marshall: 8-9 (1-2)
10. Tulane: 7-9 (1-2)
11. SMU: 6-9 (1-2)
12. Rice: 6-11 (1-2)

This week in Conference USA basketball was full of the various surprises and dramatics that make college basketball season something special.  However when the dust settled this week, the same team was still the proverbial ‘King of the Castle’ and still nobody else from the pack has distinguished themselves.

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Allen R. of Houston Basketball Junkies is the RTC correspondent for Conference USA. 

CUSA Basketball Standings:

1. Memphis  12-3 (2-0)
2. Houston  10-3 (1-0)
3. Tulsa  10-5 (1-0)
4. UTEP  10-5 (1-0)
5. East Carolina  9-6 (1-1)
6. Marshall  8-7 (1-1)
7. Tulane  7-8 (1-1)
8. UCF  10-5 (0-1)
9. Southern Miss  9-5 (0-1)
10. UAB  9-6 (0-1)
11. SMU  5-8 (0-1)
12. Rice  5-10 (0-1)

Now that the proverbial dark cloud of non-conference play has passed, there’s the excitement of Conference USA basketball.  Everyone is now 0-0 and has their chances (some larger than others) to make a statement in the second half of the season. As this week started it didn’t matter if you were Memphis or SMU, a new season has begun for your team.

1.)  Same ‘Ol, Same ‘Ol in Memphis: There may be some surprises in conference play this season, but it doesn’t look the Tigers will be providing as many of them. In their conference opener at the FedEx Forum, Memphis dominated from start to finish in an 80-57 win over Marshall. The Tigers got a balanced scoring effort from Tyreke Evans and company. Things got scary in Orlando though as the Tigers got a stiff road test from UCF. Before last Saturday’s game, the athletic department encouraged all Knight fans to come to the arena “armored in black” to create a blackout effect. The Tigers ended up winning 73-66 due in large part to a 13 point effort from reserve Roburt Sallie. While this may be the season Memphis loses a conference game, it’s still been over 1000 days since that’s happened.

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