ACC M5: Early Season Tournaments, Part I Edition

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on November 16th, 2017

morning5_ACC

Note: To gauge relative team strength, we use current KenPom ratings. All times are Eastern.

  1. Charleston Classic: Clemson (#49) tips off the ACC’s early season tournament action later this afternoon, taking on Ohio (#153) in the first round of the Charleston Classic (ESPN2 – 5:00 PM). On Friday night, the Tigers will play either Dayton (#106) or Hofstra (#120) and the championship game will be played on Sunday night (ESPN2 – 9:30 PM). This event has a solid and balanced field this season — the eight teams playing are a combined 10-0 so far, and are all rated between #48 (Auburn) and #163 (Indiana State, which won at Indiana in its opener). Clemson has a decent shot at its first title in an exempt tournament since they won this event way back in 2008. Brad Brownell’s team should enjoy a slight home crowd advantage if the Tigers’ fans aren’t too consumed with Saturday’s football game against The Citadel earlier that afternoon in Death Valley.
  2. 2K Classic: Virginia Tech (#45) heads to Madison Square Garden tonight for the 2K Classic benefiting Wounded Warrior Project. The Hokies face Saint Louis (#163) in tonight’s opener (ESPN2 – 7:00 PM) with Providence (#32) and Washington (#130) squaring off in the nightcap. The two winners will meet in Friday night’s championship game (ESPN2 – 7:30 PM). The Hokies are off to a nice 2-0 start this year and currently rank second in the nation in scoring per game (121.5 PPG). If they meet a solid Providence squad in tomorrow’s title game (ESPN2 – 7:30 PM), it would be a great opportunity for Buzz Williams to make an early statement.
  3. Paradise Jam: Normally this event takes place in the U.S. Virgin Islands, but because of major damage to those islands from Hurricanes Irma and Maria, Liberty University in Lynchburg, Virginia, will serve as the tournament host this year. Wake Forest (#69) won’t get the Caribbean experience but Danny Manning probably isn’t in much of a vacation mood anyway after dropping the season’s first two games at home —  including Tuesday night’s 13-point loss to none other than Liberty. The Demon Deacons will face Drake (#221) in their opening tilt on Friday night (8:30 PM), and if Wake Forest advances as expected (no sure thing at this point), it would likely get Colorado (#81) in Saturday’s semifinals (8:30 PM) and perhaps Houston (#58) in Sunday evening’s title game (8:30 PM). It appears that none of the tournament will be televised but live streaming will be available for all the games on FLOHOOPS.COM.
  4. Jamaica Classic: Unlike most of its fellow Caribbean island resorts, Montego Bay was mostly unaffected by this season’s major hurricanes so it can host this event as planned. Instead of using the traditional winner-advance tournament format, all of the match-ups here have been predetermined. Florida State (#52) will play two games against teams with the same nickname (Rams). On Friday (CBSSports – 6:00 PM), the Seminoles will take on Fordham (#200) with another game against Colorado State (#121) coming on Sunday afternoon (CBSSports – 5:00 PM). It’s too bad that Rhode Island — the best of the “Rams” schools — was unavailable for this event, but regardless of that, Florida State isn’t likely to get much of a schedule strength bump from these two games.
  5. Hall of Fame Tip-Off: Boston College (#91) is off to one of its best starts in recent memory, trouncing three bottom-50 schools by an average of 26.3 points per contest. The competition will be at a much higher level this weekend at Mohegan Sun Arena, however, as the Eagles will meet Texas Tech (#31) on Saturday (ESPN3 – Noon) followed by either Northwestern (#33) or La Salle (#109) on Sunday afternoon. ESPN2 will air both of the games on Sunday — beginning with the consolation game at 3:00 PM, followed by the championship game at around 5:30 PM. After this event we will have a better gauge on just how improved Jim Christian’s team really is this year.
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ACC Burning Questions: Clemson Tigers

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on October 27th, 2017

This team preview is part of the RTC ACC microsite’s preseason coverage.

Burning Question: Does Brad Brownell need to reach the NCAA Tournament this season to keep his job?

It’s rare for ACC coaches to survive a stretch of five consecutive years not making the NCAA Tournament, but in a move that surprised many observers, Clemson head coach Brad Brownell was asked to return for another season after missing the Big Dance for the sixth year in a row. This looks like it will be another hot-seat kind of year for the beleaguered coach as he tries to finally get his Tigers over the hump.

Brad Brownell returns for his eighth season at Clemson despite not making the NCAA Tournament for the last six years. (AP Photo)

Star Jaron Blossomgame has departed, but there is a strong veteran nucleus intact. Leading the way is a trio of former transfers who are now in their third year with the program. Two of those players make up one of the most underrated backcourts in the league — point guard Shelton Mitchell and wing Marcquise Reed. Mitchell began his career at Vanderbilt and was slightly hampered by a knee injury going into his redshirt sophomore year; still, he led the team in assists (103) and was the Tigers’ second leading scorer at 10.8 points per game. His running mate Reed was a conference Rookie of the Year at Robert Morris before making the jump to  the ACC. Some wondered how he would handle the higher level of competition, but the sweet-shooting guard proved he belonged with a 115.3 offensive rating and a solid scoring average (10.0 PPG) off the bench. Both Mitchell (45.3% 3FG) and Reed (40.2% 3FG) are capable shooters from deep. The third impact transfer from a year ago, 6’9″ Elijah Thomas, figures to be the Tigers’ best big man this season. After joining the team last December, he became a key defensive cog in Brownell’s system, where he was was a good shot-blocker (7.5% block rate) and demonstrated active hands (2.5% steal rate) on the front line. Yet another transfer, 6’8″ junior David Skara, joins the Tigers after a redshirt year. Skara had a fairly significant role as a sophomore in a good mid-major program, Valparaiso, in averaging 6.5 PPG. Read the rest of this entry »

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A Look at the ACC in the NIT

Posted by Charlie Maikis on March 14th, 2017

March Madness is now upon us, but let’s take a moment to consider a different postseason tournament as the ACC is sending three teams to the NIT this season. In a year where many observers thought the NCAA Tournament bubble was one of the weakest in years, the Selection Committee was not particularly kind to the conference. Of the three ACC bubble teams, Wake Forest made the field of 68 while Syracuse and Georgia Tech were left at home. Clemson joins the Orange and Yellow Jackets in this year’s NIT, meaning that the 12 of the 15 ACC teams were invited to one of the two prestigious postseason tournaments. Before the NCAA Tournament vacuums all the oxygen in the college basketball universe, let’s discuss the trio of ACC teams playing in the NIT.

Syracuse and Clemson are two of the strongest teams in the NIT field this year and give the ACC a great chance at success. Credit: Joshua S. Kelly-USA TODAY Sports

Syracuse

Syracuse was a curious case as the Orange were left out of the NCAA Tournament presumably because of a lackluster non-conference performance. Teams that go 10-8 in what is widely regarded as the nation’s best conference usually get an invitation to the Big Dance, but that factor alone clearly wasn’t enough this season. The result was Syracuse’s placement as the top overall seed in the NIT bracket, but perhaps in the toughest region of the four. Their region also contains four other power conference teams, and the average Kenpom ranking of of the group is five spots better than the rest of the field. Luckily Syracuse doesn’t have to play the other seven teams but just the ones in front of it, starting on Wednesday night at home against UNC-Greensboro. Remember, after Jim Boeheim blasted the city of Greensboro (site of ACC headquarters and numerous ACC Tournaments) at last week’s ACC Tournament in Brooklyn, the municipality fired back:

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Inside the ACC Numbers: Volume VIII – Final Edition

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on March 7th, 2017

Here is the final edition of our weekly review of the current ACC standings and team performances where we focus on which teams are playing better or worse than their records indicate. Each week we delve into advanced metrics to reveal a few interesting teams, player statistics and trends. With the regular season now complete, we will look at which ACC teams performed better in the second half of league play and how that may impact the upcoming ACC Tournament. Finally, we forecast how the final ACC standings may look given current efficiency margins and what that means for each team’s postseason aspirations.

Note: All data is current for games played through Saturday, March 4.

Current Standings

North Carolina finished with an impressive two-game lead in the standings to edge out Louisville with the league’s top efficiency margin. Since the Cardinals finished as the #4 seed for this week’s ACC Tournament in Brooklyn, the two best teams in the conference landed on the same side of the bracket. The Tar Heels finish with the league’s top offense for the first time since 2009 — incidentally the last time North Carolina won the National Championship. This year, Roy Williams’ club used an outstanding offensive rebounding rate (42.5%) to overcome a modest shooting year — the Heels finished 10th in the league in effective field goal percentage (51.7%). Virginia reclaimed its status as the ACC’s best defensive squad, as Tony Bennett‘s teams have now finished as one of the ACC’s two best defenses in each of the last six seasons. Virginia’s pack line defense led the league in forcing turnovers (20.1%) and finished third in opponents’ effective field goal percentage (48.5%). Read the rest of this entry »

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Taking Stock of Jaron Blossomgame’s Senior Season

Posted by Charlie Maikis on March 6th, 2017

Jaron Blossomgame entered this season with sky-high expectations. After winning the ACC Most Improved Player award a year ago, the senior forward was selected to the preseason All-ACC First Team. And while his statistical output was very similar to last season, Clemson’s disappointing performance in a league full of stars assuredly hurt him given an All-ACC Third Team placement in the postseason awards. Was returning to school a good idea for the senior forward? Let’s take a deeper look at Blossomgame’s performance this season to find out.

Clemson’s Jaron Blossomgame has been the focus of opposing defenses (AP Photo/Robert Franklin)

Across the board, his numbers in scoring, rebounding and assists are slightly down, and his overall efficiency has suffered as a result. The primary reason for this decrease is related to his shooting ability. According to Hoop-Math, Blossomgame’s field goal percentage on shots at the rim improved this season by 6.3 percent. His field goal percentage on other shots inside the arc increased by 2.0 percent. For a player whose game is generally predicated on athleticism and conversions at the rim, those are good signs. The problem area, however, has come on Blossomgame’s perimeter game. Strangely, a player who converted 44.1 percent of his three-point attempts a season ago has regressed to 26.4 percent this year. Perhaps this should be unsurprising given that he was a 24.8 percent long-range shooter during his first two years of college, but for someone who shot so well to drop so precipitously is suggestive that his norm is much closer to the 32.2 percent he has converted in his career.

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ACC Weekend Review: 03.06.17 Edition

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on March 6th, 2017

The ACC regular season wrapped up on Saturday and things went mostly according to plan with home favorites winning six of the seven contests. The lone road underdog to triumph was Wake Forest boosting its NCAA Tournament hopes with a nice comeback win at Virginia Tech. In one of the season’s most exciting games, North Carolina earned revenge for an earlier loss at Duke defeating the Blue Devils on Saturday night in the Smith Center. In other important action, Louisville and Florida State clinched double-byes in the upcoming ACC Tournament by beating Notre Dame and Miami, respectively. Syracuse also routed Georgia Tech in the Carrier Dome in what was effectively an NCAA Tournament elimination game. Here are the highlights of the weekend around the ACC.

After Saturday night’s win over Duke, Roy Williams celebrated North Carolina’s second consecutive outright ACC regular season title (Getty/Streeter Lecka)

  • Best Win I: Even though North Carolina had already clinched the ACC regular season title, the Tar Heels still had much at stake in its annual season-ending meeting with Duke. In using a late-game spurt to beat the Blue Devils, Roy Williams’ club avenged an earlier loss and moved considerably closer to clinching a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The game was a riveting back-and-forth affair with great individual performances on both sides. Luke Kennard made his case for ACC Player of the Year by leading the Blue Devils with 28 points, but his efforts were not enough to overcome outstanding performances from North Carolina’s Joel Berry (28 points including 5-of-5 on threes) and Isaiah Hicks (21 points, nine rebounds). Another difference this time came in the form of North Carolina’s improved perimeter defense. Duke punished the Tar Heels from beyond the arc with 13 three-pointers several weeks ago; on Saturday, the Blue Devils managed only 7-of-19 from deep.

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Inside the ACC Numbers: Volume VII

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on March 3rd, 2017

Here is the latest edition of our weekly review of the current ACC standings and team performances where we focus on which teams are playing better or worse than their records indicate. Each week we delve into advanced metrics to reveal a few interesting teams, player statistics and trends. This week we will look at the how ACC teams have performed in the nail-biter games — conference games decided by one or two possessions. Finally, we forecast how the final ACC standings may look given current efficiency margins, and what that means for each team’s postseason aspirations.

Note: All data is current for games played through Wednesday, March 1.

Current Standings

Hats off to North Carolina for clinching at least a share of the ACC regular season title for the second straight season and for the eighth time in Roy Williams’ 14-year tenure at the school. The Tar Heels took advantage of a scheduling imbalance in their favor this year, with only three road games coming versus the top nine schools in the ACC standings. Despite being generally regarded as the ACC’s sixth best team in both the efficiency metrics and the national polls, Notre Dame sits alone in second place in the standings. With the Irish traveling to Louisville this weekend, though, the odds are against Mike Brey’s squad in catching the Heels. If all the home favorites win their games this weekend, Virginia Tech could rise all the way to the #5 seed in next week’s ACC Tournament, even with a likely negative points per possession margin. See below for how Buzz Williams’ guys have made this a legitimate possibility.

Advanced Stat of the Week: Performance In Close Games

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ACC Weekend Review: 02.27.17 Edition

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on February 27th, 2017

Saturday was a great day for visiting ACC teams with one notable exception – Miami celebrated its Senior Day by beating Duke in a 55-50 defensive struggle. Road teams on Saturday came out on top everywhere else. North Carolina wrapped up the #1 seed in the ACC Tournament by winning at Pittsburgh; Florida State crushed Clemson’s NCAA at-large bid hopes; and Virginia ended its four-game losing streak by besting N.C. State. Home teams had better results on Sunday as Louisville handled Syracuse and Notre Dame topped Georgia Tech. Here are the highlights of the weekend around the ACC.

Jim Larranaga has now led Miami to four straight ACC victories, including Saturday’s win over Duke.
(David Santiago-miamiherald.com)

  • Best Win: Prior to last week, Miami had been flying under the radar even with a cleary upward trajectory in the ACC. But after back-to-back upset wins over ranked opponents — at Virginia on Monday and at home against Duke on Saturday — the Hurricanes are finally getting some deserving national attention. Against the Blue Devils, Jim Larranaga’s club found a way to win despite shooting just 38.0 percent from the floor and giving up 21 offensive rebounds. Its defense saved the day, holding Duke to its lowest single-game point total in over eight years. The Hurricanes are now in a fifth-place tie with Duke in the ACC standings, and they still have a shot at a top-four finish and the ACC Tournament double-bye that comes along with it.

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This Weekend in the ACC: February 25

Posted by Mick McDonald on February 25th, 2017

Here are a few things to keep your eye on around the ACC this weekend (all times Eastern):

Saturday, 12:00 PM: Florida State (22-6; 10-5 ACC) at Clemson (14-13; 4-11 ACC) Clemson found yet another heartbreaking way to lose this week, this time thanks to a buzzer-beating three from Virginia Tech’s Seth Allen in Blacksburg. Can the Tigers still make a run at the NCAA Tournament without winning the ACC Tournament? Maybe. The Tigers’ 4-11 ACC record is unquestionably ugly, but if they can win their final three games (a big if, of course) to reach 7-11, a strong non-conference showing might counterbalance their sub-.500 record. They would still likely need a couple wins in Brooklyn, but such a run is certainly not out of the question. The problem is that the last time these two teams played, the Seminoles made 17 threes and shot a blistering 66 percent from the field on their way to a 48-point victory. Florida State, however, has been a different team on the road this year — can the Tigers finally win a close game?

Can Clemson finally win a tight one with the Seminoles in town this weekend? (AP Photo)

Saturday, 4:00 PM: Duke (22-6; 10-5 ACC) at Miami (19-8; 9-6 ACC) Break up the Hurricanes! After an, umm, let’s say unappetizing victory over Virginia on Monday night, Jim Larranaga’s bunch has now won five of their last six games. Miami now appears headed for the NCAA Tournament, a shocking development given a pathetic non-conference schedule that featured losses to the only two decent teams (Florida and Iowa State) it played. The Hurricanes have racked up wins by basically being the anti-Clemson, winning their last five games by single digits. Duke, meanwhile, fresh off a buzzer-beating loss at Syracuse that snapped its seven-game winning streak, needs a victory here to have a shot of catching North Carolina for the ACC regular season championship.

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Inside the ACC Numbers: Volume VI

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on February 24th, 2017

Here is the latest edition of our weekly review of the current ACC standings and team performances where we focus on which teams are playing better or worse than their records indicate. Each week we delve into advanced metrics to reveal a few interesting teams, player statistics and trends. This week we will look at the most extreme example of home court advantage in the ACC. Finally, we forecast how the final ACC standings may look given current efficiency margins, and what that means for each teams’ postseason aspirations.

Note: All data is current for games played through Wednesday, February 22.

Current Standings

Thanks to Wednesday’s home win over Louisville, North Carolina has now taken the lead in efficiency margin to go along with its two-game cushion in the standings. Efficiency margins confirm that the Tar Heels and the Cardinals are the two best teams in the league, so we should not be surprised if they meet again in the ACC Tournament championship game. If neither squad loses until March 11, one of the NCAA’s #1 seeds would probably be on the line that Saturday night. The standings match up well with efficiency at this point, with two notable exceptions – Virginia has played quite a bit better than its record indicates, while Virginia Tech appears to be very fortunate to be 8-7 in league play. Perhaps the hottest team in the league right now is Miami, as the Hurricanes have posted seven victories in their last nine outings.

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