Rushed Reactions: #3 UCLA 79, #6 Cincinnati 67

Posted by rtmsf on March 19th, 2017

RTC is providing coverage from start to finish of the NCAA Tournament for the next three weeks.

UCLA Soars Into the Sweet Sixteen (USA Today Images)

Key Takeaways.

  1. UCLA Plays Its Game. As written in Friday night’s Rushed Reactions after UCLA had dispatched Kent State, the Bruins will go as far as their supernaturally-good offense takes them. Many pundits before the NCAA Tournament and leading into tonight’s game with Cincinnati suggested that the Bearcats’ grinding, defense-first style would ultimately frustrate UCLA into a bunch of bad shots and an early loss. Didn’t happen. It says here that a team’s best bet to beat Steve Alford’s team is simply hoping that UCLA’s shots are off and finding a way to outscore them. The nation’s 11th-best defense coming into tonight’s game gave up a 63.3 percent second half that included 7-of-14 from three as the Bruins took control and ultimately ran away with the game.
  2. The Diversity of Options Makes Runs Impossible to Fully Contain. It’s basically pick your poison. UCLA clearly came into the game thinking that it had the interior size advantage and sought to punish the smaller Cincinnati front line with Thomas Welsh and TJ Leaf. Neither guy is a very comfortable post-up player, however, which allowed for a series of empty possessions for Cincinnati to stick around. But eventually the Bruins’ shooters — Bryce Alford (3-of-7 3FG in the second half), Lonzo Ball (3-of-4) and Isaac Hamilton (1-of-2) — found the range and opened up opportunities for Welsh and Leaf driving to the basket. The pair converted four dunks in the second half alone. Pick your poison.
  3.  Cincinnati Needed Troy Caupain. Given that the Bearcats were going to have to out-offense UCLA in order to win this game, they needed a monster day from Troy Caupain. And when he nailed an early three it appeared that he might be ready to continue his stellar play from Friday against Kansas State He didn’t hit another three-pointer for the rest of the game, going 1-of-8 from distance, and finally settling on a line of nine points on 3-of-11 shooting, five rebounds and four turnovers. UCLA clearly prioritized him in its defensive schemes, but sometimes it’s also just not your night. That appears to be what happened to Caupain tonight, who finishes an excellent four-year career at Cincinnati.

Star of the Game. Lonzo Ball, UCLA. The multifaceted Ball got himself going in the second half today, ultimately providing the fuel for a run that pushed UCLA’s lead to double-figures and ultimately the win. His game totals of 18 points, seven rebounds and nine assists were all team-highs, and yet it actually felt during most of the game that he was quiet. This is an extremely talented player who knows how to pick his spots.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

Rushed Reactions: #6 Cincinnati 75, #11 Kansas State 61

Posted by rtmsf on March 17th, 2017

Rush the Court will be covering the NCAA Tournament from start to finish over the next three weeks. 

Mick Cronin’s Team Was Very Impressive Tonight (USA Today Images)

Key Takeaways.

  1. Cincinnati is More Offensive Than You Think. Forgiving the pun here, but if you haven’t watched much of Cincinnati this season you likely don’t realize that the Bearcats — known under Mick Cronin for its generally offensive offense — broke 80 points in 15 games this season. That’s not to say that anyone will mistake his team for UCLA or North Carolina on the offensive end of the floor, but it is to say that the painful droughts that often ended up beating the Bearcats have become more sporadic this year. In tonight’s first half against Kansas State, Cincinnati delivered a 65 percent shooting clinic that effectively put offensively-challenged Wildcats in a bind — how to make up an 11-point deficit without the pace or ability to make sustained runs? The Bearcats did their typical defensive work too — especially in several key moments of the second half — but beware the team that thinks the likes of Troy Caupain (23 points) and Gary Clark (15 points) aren’t legitimate scorers.
  2. And Yet, the Defense. Cincinnati isn’t like Press Virginia in that it doesn’t turn you over to fuel blistering 12-0 runs that run teams out of the building. Rather, the Bearcats’ style is more like death by a slow, excruciating boil. Kansas State experienced this firsthand in the middle of tonight’s second half when, after cutting the lead to eight points with around 12 minutes remaining, the Bearcats made stops on the subsequent five possessions (including a couple blocks on what appeared like easy conversions) over three minutes to push the lead back out to 14 points. And while that may not sound like an insurmountable margin with nine minutes remaining, you could feel the air being sucked out of the sails on the Kansas State sideline. The Wildcats never got the lead under double figures again.
  3. Kansas State Showed Out Well. Many of the things that Kansas State does well, Cincinnati simply does better. But to make the NCAA Tournament field as the last at-large team in and win a First Four game over a trendy team like Wake Forest showed that the Wildcats, led by senior Wesley Iwundu but primarily run by underclassmen, will be back. Bruce Weber seems in perma-hot seat status, but you’d have to think that he did enough this season to keep his job for at least one more year.

Star of the Game. Troy Caupain, Cincinnati. The Bearcats’ senior guard put together a stellar First Round game tonight, scoring 23 points on 7-of-10 shooting, grabbing seven boards and adding a couple of dimes. When he is cooking, Cincinnati is tough to beat because the defensive effort will always be there to support it.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

Beware the Polls: Overperforming Teams Regress in NCAA Tournament

Posted by Will Ezekowitz on March 14th, 2017

Preseason rankings may seem irrelevant when it comes to college basketball, but history has shown that their predictive value are surprisingly important. For example, as we have shown in this space before, the preseason poll is in fact just as predictive of a run to the Final Four as the current AP Poll. The reasoning behind this phenomenon is that the preseason polls take into account all of the changes that the mathematical models have more difficulty accounting for (i.e. coaching changes, big recruiting classes, injuries, etc.). The conventional wisdom entering the season is actually fairly sophisticated and smart.

Are You Sure You Want to Choose Michigan? (AP)

Given this intuition, let’s examine the teams that defied that wisdom throughout the season and went from unranked in the preseason to ranked in the final AP poll before the NCAA Tournament. Had the preseason polls gotten something wrong? Or did these over-performing teams regress back to their expectations in the postseason? Using the last 10 years of data that includes seed win expectation data from fivethirtyeight.com, I investigated. Of the 97 teams who qualified for analysis, 32 (33%) of those teams outperformed their win expectations in the NCAA Tournament while 65 (67%) underperformed. As a whole, a group that was expected to win 138.8 games over the 10-year sample won just 107. A statistical T-test found this difference statistically significant. In fact, only one team — Kemba Walker’s 2011 National Championship team, Connecticut — even made the Final Four.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

RTC Bracket Prep: South Region

Posted by Bennet Hayes on March 13th, 2017

All day on Monday we will roll out our region-by-region analysis for the 2017 NCAA Tournament. Here, Bennet Hayes (@HoopsTraveler) breaks down the South Region from top to bottom. Also, be sure to follow our RTC South Region handle on Twitter for continuous updates the next two weeks (@RTCSouthRegion).

South Region

Favorite: #2 Kentucky (29-5, 16-2 SEC). It’s hard to pick a true favorite when examining the top three seeds in this region, as North Carolina, Kentucky and UCLA will all garner buzz as Final Four candidates. However, the Wildcats get the RTC nod as region favorites after a dominant SEC Tournament title run. The Tar Heels are the more experienced unit, but it’s possible that no team in the field can match the talent of these young Wildcats. At the very least, Malik Monk (20.4 PPG) and De’Aaron Fox (16.1 PPG, 4.8 APG) make up the scariest backcourt – freshmen or not – in the entire country, and we’ve heard that guard play matters a little bit this time of year. The Wildcats loom as a favorite in a top-heavy region.

Malik Monk and De’Aaron Fox have Kentucky rolling into this NCAA Tournament (Photo: USA Today Sports)

Should They Falter: #1 North Carolina (27-7, 14-4 ACC). The Tar Heels enter the NCAA Tournament with less momentum than Kentucky, but the ACC regular season champions have proved plenty dominant all season long. Whether it was during a three-game romp to the Maui Invitational title in November, or its perfect campaign at the Dean Dome, North Carolina sprinted past opponents like so many other Roy Williams coached teams have before. Justin Jackson (18.1 PPG) evolved into the go-to offensive weapon many thought he would never become, while Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks have manned an extremely effective frontcourt operation. The Tar Heels’ notation as secondary favorites in the region should not be perceived as a slight; this is a very good team that at worst is the 1B to Kentucky’s 1A.

Grossly Overseeded: #5 Minnesota (24-9, 11-7 Big Ten). If you are trying to make sense of Minnesota’s placement on the #5 seed line, do not look at the committee’s S-Curve for clarification. The Gophers are closer to a #4 seed than a #6 at #18 overall, and the slew of teams right behind them – Notre Dame, Iowa State, SMU, Cincinnati – all feel significantly more deserving/scarier than Minneapolis’ favorite team. As is always the case in situations like these, it’s important to note the merit of Minnesota’s season – Richard Pitino turned last year’s disappointment into success faster than any Gopher fan could have hoped – but a #5 seed this is not. Middle Tennessee State stands to benefit, and you don’t have to dig deep into the memory banks to recall a Blue Raiders’ March takedown of a Big Ten foe.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

2016-17 RTC Top 25: Week Six

Posted by Bennet Hayes on December 28th, 2016

It’s official: Conference play is here. Tuesday’s quartet of Big Ten games may have done little to impact next week’s edition of the RTC25, but it did signal the beginning of college basketball’s second season. Fans across the country shouldn’t be sad about this development, either, after a quiet final week of the non-conference season carried us through the winter holidays. The RTC25 reflects the depth of last week’s college basketball moratorium, as South Carolina (home losers to rival Clemson) was the only team to move up or down more than two spots, sliding out of the poll from #22 last week. The only other game of true consequence was significant in reality, but Louisville’s defeat of Kentucky did more for its NCAA Tournament resume than it did the Cards’ standing in the RTC25. Rick Pitino’s team rose two spots to #7 in this week’s poll, while the vaunted Wildcats dropped past the Cardinals to #8. It was a big game during an otherwise quiet week, but with conference foes lying in wait, consider the silence broken. This week’s Quick N’ Dirty Analysis of the RTC25 is after the jump.

screen-shot-2016-12-27-at-6-12-23-pm

Quick N’ Dirty Analysis.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

Where 2016-17 Happens: Reason #8 We Love College Basketball

Posted by rtmsf on November 4th, 2016

As RTC heads into its 10th season — Season X, if you will — covering college basketball, it’s time to begin releasing our annual compendium of YouTube clips that we like to call Thirty Reasons We Love College Basketball. These 30 snippets from last season’s action are completely guaranteed to make you wish games were starting tonight rather than 30 days from now. Over the next month you’ll get one reason per day until we reach the new season on Friday, November 11. You can find all of this year’s released posts here.

#8 – Where Fractions Happens.

We also encourage you to re-visit the entire archive of this feature from the 2008-092009-10, 2010-112011-122012-132013-142014-15 and 2015-16 preseasons.

Share this story

Keeping the Big 12 Expansion Doors Open

Posted by Brian Goodman on October 20th, 2016

For a little while on Monday, it seemed like the Big 12 might actually expand after months of indecisiveness. As we all know now, the league’s press conference ended up being a whole lot of nothing as commissioner Bob Bowlsby announced an extension of the status quo (until it comes up again this winter and we do this dance all over again). The will-they/won’t-they is frustrating enough for college football fans with their sport driving the decisions (or lack thereof), but it’s also exasperating on the basketball side as we’re merely along for the ride. If there’s any solace we can take from the seemingly seasonal Big 12 expansion talks, it is that the programs mentioned most frequently each have considerable basketball juice to bring to the table. Football may steer the ship in terms of overall revenue potential, but the hoops programs at BYU, Cincinnati and Connecticut would certainly make basketball even more competitive than it already is, with invested fan bases and strong histories in tow. Let’s take a closer look at each.

BYU

Jimmer Fredette Was a Household Name at BYU Several Years Ago (Jack Dempsey/AP)

Jimmer Fredette Was a Household Name at BYU Several Years Ago (Jack Dempsey/AP)

  • The Lowdown: The Cougars may not be as nationally relevant as they were when NPOY Jimmer Fredette was rewriting the school’s record books twice a week, but there’s still a lot to like about this program. Head coach Dave Rose has led BYU to NCAA Tournament appearances in eight of his 11 seasons at the helm, although they’ve only advanced to the Round of 32 twice and the Sweet Sixteen once in those chances. They play a very entertaining brand of offensive basketball, pushing tempo, valuing possessions, and knocking down threes. That might suggest a finesse style in the vein of Hoiberg-era Iowa State, but they also crash the defensive glass with complete abandon, ranking among the upper echelon in defensive rebounding rate on an annual basis.

untitled2

With such a high level of success and an entertaining blueprint to match, the Cougars have transformed the Marriott Center into a fortress, losing just four conference games there over the last three seasons. BYU regularly ranks among the top 15 schools in attendance, topping every current Big 12 program other than Kansas.

  • Recent Big 12 Meetings: The Cougars are incredibly tough to beat at home, but Iowa State did just that in November 2014, winning a 90-88 thriller in Provo. Just five days later, though, BYU exacted revenge on the Big 12 with an 86-82 win over Texas in Kansas City. Going back even further than that, BYU also lost to Iowa State in Ames in 2013 and dropped a pair of games to Baylor that same year — once in Waco and then in New York in the NIT semifinals. Read the rest of this entry »
Share this story

Big 12 Morning Five: 05.06.16 Edition

Posted by Brian Goodman on May 6th, 2016

morning5_big12

  1. The coaching carousel is essentially finished for the offseason, but it may not be long before we see movement of a bigger variety with expansion “likely” coming to the Big 12, per ESPN’s Matt Rittenberg. While the potential move would be football-driven — like most realignment shake-ups — it obviously would impact basketball as well, no matter who the Big 12 plucks. There are a handful of reasonable candidates for expansion (well, reasonable as far as realignment goes), but Cincinnati is particularly appealing and realistic for a few reasons, all of which make sense: Most importantly, they would instantly bring (what would be) the second-biggest TV market in the conference. The Bearcats also offer an underrated football program and, as we all know, a consistently strong hoops team. Lower on the list, their inclusion would provide a less taxing travel partner for West Virginia, which is 850 miles away from its closest Big 12 opponent, Iowa State. Cincinnati’s administration has been lobbying the Big 12 for inclusion over the past two years, and while that may not make them automatic, that familiarity certainly can’t hurt from either side. We’ll continue to keep an eye on any developments, but after a few years of rumblings, this summer could be the one where the talk finally leads to action.
  2. While there was never any reason to think that Josh Jackson would back out of his commitment to Kansas, the blue-chipper officially inked with the Jayhawks earlier this week, which means that Bill Self was allowed to talk publicly about him for the first time, and those first comments were pretty interesting. Among Self’s praises for the wing was the remark that “his (Jackson’s) impact on our program next year will be as much as any freshman will have on any college program.” While it’s traditional for coaches to talk up their newcomers, that particular comment sure sets a high bar when you consider how strong and deep the 2016 class is purported to be. Self went on to praise Jackson’s competitive nature, which is also worth pointing out in this space. One of themes of Kansas’ recent teams has been the lack of a vocal leader capable of igniting something within his more stoic teammates, so the degree to which that part of Jackson’s game translates in a much tougher environment will definitely be worth monitoring as the coming season wears on.
  3. Jamie Dixon‘s key challenge at TCU is finding prospects who are willing to spurn better programs in favor of one that has struggled mightily to achieve any semblance of success or build more than a passing following, but his first commitment in Fort Worth signifies that he’s up to the task. On Wednesday, the Horned Frogs secured the commitment of 2016 point guard prospect Jaylen Fisher, a former UNLV commit. The Running Rebels’ coaching shake-up led Fisher to reopen his recruitment, and he stayed loyal to his lead recruiter, former UNLV assistant Ryan Miller, who left Vegas to join Dixon’s staff. Perhaps more importantly, though, Fisher is a consensus top-75 recruit, which makes him TCU’s highest-ranking prospect in ages, crazy as that may sound. While the Horned Frogs will return most of their roster from last season, it’s also a roster that went 12-21, so Fisher will have a chance to make an impact from the get-go. It’s clear that Dixon is wasting no time in adding the level of talent that can change TCU’s fortunes in arguably the nation’s best conference.
  4. While there are still some players to be had through both the 2016 high school class and through transfer, the biggest Big 12 prospect still on the board is Jarrett Allen. The Longhorns are currently counting on rising senior Shaquille Cleare and freshman James Banks to fill the void left by the departures of Cameron Ridley and Prince Ibeh, which isn’t a great starting point. Cleare scored just 3.6 PPG last season as he struggled with conditioning and foul trouble, and while Banks may pan out eventually, he’s no guarantee to make an immediate impact. A commitment from Allen wouldn’t make Texas a top-ten team, but it would give Shaka Smart a little less to worry about as he looks to replace the Longhorns’ top three scorers, top three rebounders and top two shot blockers.
  5. Staying with the Longhorns, plans are reportedly being made for a December 17 match-up in Houston pitting Texas against Arkansas as part of a neutral court doubleheader. The Longhorns may be in rebuilding mode next year, but the Razorbacks will be a work in progress as well. Mike Anderson’s team is coming off a disappointing 2016 campaign that saw them go 16-16 and finish in a tie for eighth place in the SEC before losing its top freshman, Jimmy Whitt, to transfer. It won’t be the most intriguing match-up on paper regardless of what happens between now and then, but it’s early May; We’ll take whatever we can get.
Share this story

Rushed Reactions: #8 Saint Joseph’s 78, #9 Cincinnati 76

Posted by Kenny Ocker on March 18th, 2016

Kenny Ocker is an RTC columnist and correspondent. He is covering the Spokane pods of the South and West regionals this week.

Three Key Takeaways.

DeAndre Bembry was phenomenal on Friday night. (Photo: USAT)

DeAndre Bembry was phenomenal on Friday night. (Photo: USAT)

  1. DeAndre Bembry is phenomenal: The 6’6″ junior wing for Saint Joseph’s has an NBA future, and it’s obvious why. Scoring 20 first-half points against one of the country’s best defenses is no joke. And after being held to three points for most of the second half – and with his Hawks down 71-68 – he hit a floater, set up a three-pointer with a skip pass, grabbed a pair of defensive rebounds and led a 7-0 run to put the game back in Saint Joseph’s control. And the game-winning three-pointer from Isaiah Miles? That was from a Bembry setup, too. The SJU star finished with 23 points, six rebounds, five assists, three steals, two blocks and nearly a full 40 minutes played.
  2. Coreontae DeBerry had the half of his life, and so did Jacob Evans: Cincinnati’s backup senior center topped his career high with 14 points…in the first half. Then Evans, the Bearcats’ freshman wing, poured in 17 second-half points, which included a personal 8-0 stretch at one point. DeBerry finished with 18 points on 6-for-6 shooting and had a career-high-tying four blocks, while Evans had career highs with 26 points and nine rebounds.
  3. Sunday should be fun: Watching Oregon attempt to defend Bembry should be entertaining. His combination of length and savvy would test any team, and it seems like the Ducks could be particularly vulnerable to his game. The Hawks’ refusal to give up free throws will also take away easy scoring opportunities for the Ducks. But Oregon’s length – and shot-blocking ability – is not something that’s easy to prepare for in a situation with less than a 48-hour turnaround.

Star of the Game: DeAndre Bembry. Not only did he have a fantastic day on the stat sheet, but he came up big in the game’s biggest moments. One of the nation’s most under-appreciated stars.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

The Road to an NCAA Bid For Select Bubble Teams

Posted by Shane McNichol on March 8th, 2016

As the mid-major conference tournaments excite and entertain college basketball fans everywhere this week, teams on the bubble correspondingly shake in fear as coveted NCAA Tournament spots are snagged by pesky bid thieves. Northern Iowa (MVC), Iona (MAAC) and Green Bay (Horizon) have already collected conference tournament victories that are likely to impact the bubble equation. Power conference teams residing on the bubble still have some control over their destiny, as they are inevitably presented with multiple opportunities to bolster their resumes without having to win an entire tournament. A single victory over a fellow bubble team or an upset of a highly-ranked conference foe can provide the boost needed to rest a lot easier on Selection Sunday. Chances will vary for each of the following bubble teams, but here a few teams in need of victories this week along with a path with which to do so.

USC

Jordan McLaughlin And USC Have The Tournament In Sight...But May Need One Or Two More Wins To Get There (Photo: AP)

Jordan McLaughlin And USC Have the NCAA Tournament In Sight… But May Need One Or Two More Wins To Get There (Photo: AP)

Its Path: Beat UCLA and Utah

On January 13, USC was 15-3 with wins over Arizona and UCLA in Pac-12 play along with non-conference wins over Monmouth, Wichita State and Yale. The wheels have since fallen off the Trojans, as Andy Enfield’s squad lost eight of its final 13 games to plant itself firmly on the bubble. The rigors of conference play hit his squad harder than expected, knocking the Trojans right to the edge of the NCAA Tournament. USC begins this week’s Pac-12 Tournament with its bid-clinching work clearly laid out ahead of it. Wins over UCLA (which they swept this season) in the first round and Utah (RPI #8) in the quarterfinals would safely launch the Trojans into the field.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story