Rob Dauster of Ballin is a Habit is spending the week as the RTC correspondent at the Big East Tournament. In addition to live-blogging select games throughout the tournament, he will post a nightly diary with his thoughts on each day’s action. Here is his submission for the late quarterfinal games.
Georgetown 91, Syracuse 84
This performance from Georgetown shouldn’t surprise you. Remember, when healthy early in the season, this team was in the top ten nationally, and for good reason. Austin Freeman’s health situation affected this team more than people realize – Thompson said that was long as the Hoyas “keep Freeman’s levels fine he will be able to perform” – and they are just now hitting their stride again.
You know about Georgetown’s big three, but don’t underestimate Jason Clark. Jeff Goodman called him the “ultimate glue guy” earlier today, and while I agree with him to a point – Clark is a great defender, he can go and get you an offensive rebound, and he racks up some assists – I think by definition a glue guy isn’t a scorer. Clark can be. He hasn’t put up the numbers simply because he doesn’t get a ton of shots, but he is a nightmare to stay in front of and a lights out shooter. Jason Clark isn’t a glue guy, he is a very good basketball player.
The only way Syracuse doesn’t deserve a one seed is if both Duke and Ohio State win their conference tournaments. Otherwise, Syracuse is ok, although they may be headed out west.
JTIII on the Orange: “That team is still one of the best, if not the best team in the country in spite of today’s outcome. Do I expect them to be a dangerous team in the tournament? Absolutely?” Very true, but today may have exposed a flaw in this team - a stopper. Not on the defensive end, but a guy that can get you a basket when things aren’t going well. Can Wes Johnson be that guy? Right now, he is a jump shooter and an athlete.
Marquette 80, Villanova 76
The Golden Eagles shot 65% in the second half. The were 6/6 from three in the second half and 11/18 overall. They had 17 assists and just 8 turnovers. I think it is safe to say Villanova hasn’t solved their defensive issues.
There may not be two more underrated players in the Big East than Corey Fisher and Darius Johnson-Odom. Both were on full display this afternoon. Fisher was impossible to keep out of the lane, finishing with 16 points and 6 assists, while DJO had 24 points, 5 assists, and hit five threes.
Marquette is going to make it out of the first weekend. Put that on the record. This team is so difficult to defend. Hayward and Butler are match-up nightmares for opposing bigs. Their guards can all shoot it, they can all get into the lane, and they all can kick the ball out to an open shooter. Most importantly, everyone on the team understands that they are at their best when they move the ball offensively.
Buzz Williams on Jay Wright: “I think he will be in the Hall of Fame long before his career is over”
Rob Dauster of Ballin is a Habit is spending the week as the RTC correspondent at the Big East Tournament. In addition to live-blogging select games throughout the tournament, he will post a nightly diary with his thoughts on each day’s action. Here is his submission on the Second Round games.
Georgetown 69, South Florida 49
What is there to say about Georgetown that we don’t already know? This team is balanced, this team is poised, this team has size, they have shooting, they execute offensively, they are tough defensively. There is not anything this team cannot do… when they are playing well. The problem with that caveat is that they don’t always play well. So while they looked like a dark horse Final Four contender today, tomorrow they could come out and lose by 30 to Syracuse and I wouldn’t be surprised.
The difference in this game, believe it or not, was Georgetown’s transition game. South Florida loves to attack the basket, be it via the post up, the drive,or the offensive rebound. As a result, the Bulls on far too many occasions got caught with too many players in and around the paint. Georgetown took advantage, getting some easy baskets in transition and a number of open looks in secondary break situations.
South Florida didn’t hit their first three of the Big East tournament until there were 30 seconds left. And that was made by a walk-on. Tonight’s performance — five points from outside the paint and the foul line, only two prior to that final three — was only marginally better than yesterday. If you’re counting at home, South Florida had three baskets outside the paint in 80 minutes of basketball in MSG. Yeah, that’s not good.
USF was playing for a chance to make the NCAA Tournament. Now they are headed to the NIT.
Marquette 57, St. John’s 55
You don’t want to play Marquette in the tournament. There is no team in the country that is more battle tested than this group. The most impressive part? Its so obvious how much they have grown. Winning is a learned skill, and Marquette has learned. Marquette is probably going to end up in the #7-#10 range somewhere. Whatever #1 or #2 seed gets them won’t be pleased.
Buzz Williams is hilarious. First and foremost, his dances on the sideline are great. The one that left an impression with me today was the one-footed hop step with a leg kick on a three Marquette hit in the first half. In the presser he had some gems.
He said that he’d “play with these guys in the street anywhere in America”
He compared his trust for Cubillan to his trust of his wife
Regarding the overturned free throws at the end of the game, he said “my wife will get mad if I say anything because it would hurt my kid’s college fund.”
And do I need to mention this is a short, pudgy man with a big head shaved bald? All around hilarious guy.
Personally, I see no way that St. John’s can fire Norm Roberts this year. I touched on it yesterday, but this is a team that returns ten — 10 — seniors next year. Buzz Williams mentioned it in the presser after the game, but its obvious to those who watch St. John’s, no coach in the Big East has his team play harder than Roberts does. St. John’s has been very close in a number of games this year as well. He deserves at least one more season.
We love this bracket science stuff, which is reminiscent of some of the work we did when this site was in its infancy nearly three years ago. It’s good to see Peter Tiernan continuing to do this every year, now for CBS Sportsline. Maybe the NCAA Selection Committee should bring him on board. Here’s a taste: best team against seed expectation in the last decade? Florida. Worst? Wake Forest. Sounds about right.
If you’re lucky enough to live in an area with a select movie theater chosen by the NCAA overlords, the Final Four will be shown in living, breathing 3-D. Because nothing says March Madness like seeing Sherron Collins barreling down the court at you at 100 miles an hour. We have no idea if this will be incredibly awesome or incredibly lame, but we’ll make sure to send someone out there to check it out.
Speaking of all three dimensions, here’s Seth Davis’ 2010 All-Glue team. The headliner is Ohio State’s David Lighty, but we also love the Willie Veasley (Butler) and Rick Jackson (Syracuse) picks.
More conference awards today. POY – ACC: Greivis Vasquez, Maryland; Big East: Wes Johnson, Syracuse; SEC: John Wall, Kentucky. COY – ACC: Gary Williams, Maryland; Big East: Jim Boeheim, Syracuse; SEC: Kevin Stallings, Vanderbilt. FrOY:ACC: Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech; Big East: Lance Stephenson, Cincinnati; SEC: DeMarcus Cousins, Kentucky. Some weird goings-on in the SEC there. First, how does John Wall win POY but not FrOY? Isn’t he a freshman, and isn’t he the best player in the league according to the voters? Second, how does Kevin Stallings win COY — DeMarcus Cousins was so shocked he didn’t even know who Stallings was!
Rob Dauster of Ballin is a Habit is spending the week as the RTC correspondent at the Big East Tournament. In addition to live-blogging select games throughout the tournament, he will post a nightly diary with his thoughts on each day’s action. Here is his submission on the First Round games.
South Florida 58, DePaul 49
South Florida looked really good in the first half. In the second half, a scrappy DePaul team started hitting some shots and made it somewhat exciting. But in the first half, USF looked absolutely dominant. They got just about whatever they wanted offensively, they hit the offensive glass, they scored in transition, and they held DePaul to merely 15 points.
Jarrid Famous could be a very good player one day. Great frame, good size and athleticism, but he needs a post game. I like his aggressiveness as well; he had seven offensive rebounds.
In one of the stranger stats I’ve ever seen, South Florida scored 58 points. 50 of them came in the paint, and six at the foul line, meaning that the Bulls got just one basket outside of the paint.
The most entertaining part of this game was actually the battle of the bands in an empty gym before tipoff. In my opinion, USF clinched it with a stirring rendition of “You Can Call Me Al”.
Where to start about the Huskies? They turned it over 20 times; they went 6-18 from the foul line; they clearly had no interest in playing this game; Jerome Dyson packed it in three games ago, as he finished with four points and nine turnovers this afternoon. All around, it was ugly.
St. John’s is going to be a good team next year given they learn how to hold onto a lead. They will have ten seniors on their team, and the only rotation player they are losing is Anthony Mason, Jr. I’ve already got them slotted as my sleeper pick. They have size, they have athleticism, they have a stud in DJ Kennedy, and they have a couple experienced PGs.
Will UConn accept an NIT bid? Did Jim Calhoun just coach his last game in Storrs? Is Kemba Walker going pro? All questions you should keep in mind over the next month. Another thing to think about with the Huskies – they have not won a Big East Tournament game since the 2005 first round against Georgetown. Jerome Dyson is 0-4 in the Big East Tournamen and 0-1 in the NCAA Tournament. The only year he was on the team and the Huskies had any postseason success was last year’s Final Four run, while he was injured.
Rob Dauster of Ballin is a Habit is the RTC correspondent for the Big East Conference.
Season in Review
The Big East regular season ended on Saturday, and I think it is safe to say that the league had a bit of an unpredictable season. Don’t believe me? Show me a season preview that had Syracuse winning the league, Pitt getting a double-bye, UConn playing on Tuesday, and with South Florida and Notre Dame finishing above UConn and Cincinnati. See? Unpredictable.
But what does that mean? Was the Big East better from top to bottom than it was last year? Did teams like Marquette, USF, and Notre Dame benefit from a down year? The one thing that is for sure is that the top of the Big East is nowhere near the top of last year’s Big East. Five Sweet 16 teams and three No. 1 seeds is a pretty phenomenal feat. But last year the conference only sent seven teams to the tournament, and there is a very good chance that number will be surpassed this season.
The way the Big East bubble is shaping up right now, five teams are in – Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Pitt and Georgetown. Louisville and Marquette should be ok, but a loss on Wednesday and things could get dicey depending on how the rest of the bubble plays out. If Notre Dame happens to lose their first Big East Tournament game (to either Seton Hall or Rutgers), then the Irish could be in trouble as they will likely be right on the cut line. That gives us eight that are reasonably safe.
It is possible, however, for the Big East to get two more teams in. If today was Selection Sunday, then Seton Hall may actually be in the tournament. While they have 11 losses, the average RPI of the team’s that have beaten the Pirates is 26 and they have not lost to a team with an RPI below 64. Add into that mix that the Pirates have wins over Louisville, Notre Dame, Pitt, at Cornell and an RPI of 53. Its not a great profile, but its a very weak bubble this year. That could be enough. The other team that still has a shot of an at-large bid is UConn, simply because the Huskies have more good wins than most of the bubble teams. That said, they also have 14 losses. UConn will likely need to make it to the Big East semis for any kind of real shot at a bid.
The Big East Conference released their all-conference teams today, and there isn’t much there that I disagree with. (Note: there are six players on the first team because one of those six will win POY; POY, COY, and ROY will be announced on Tuesday between Big East Tournament sessions)
Folks, it’s March and we’re now approximately eight days until Selection Sunday sets the sports world on fire. By our count, there are about twenty teams fighting for half as many at-large spots, and this weekend’s games will have increased importance in the all-too-important ’sniff test.’ The NCAA Selection Committee is made of humans just like the rest of us, and if they see a couple of teams look great on tv this weekend, it could be the little extra push needed to earn a Dance card next Sunday. But it’s not just about those so-called bubble teams; it’s also about positioning. Which team will step up in the last week to grab the likely one remaining #1 seed, along with Syracuse, Kansas and Kentucky? Who will be able to secure a top four regional seed in order to play closer to home? There are so many questions unanswered still remaining. Today is the last Saturday of the regular season, and as always, we’ll be with you on Boom Goes the Dynamite throughout the day. Below are the key games we plan on keeping an eye on — of special note is that three more automatic bids will be delivered today, in the Big South, Atlantic Sun and Ohio Valley Conferences.
Noon – West Virginia @ Villanova on CBS – RTC Live
Noon -Texas A&M @ Oklahoma on ESPN
Noon – Cincinnati @ Georgetown on ESPN360
1 pm – Tulsa @ Memphis on CBS College Sports
1:30 pm – Maryland @ Virginia on ESPN360
2 pm – Kansas @ Missouri on CBS
2 pm – Syracuse @ Louisville on ESPN
2 pm – Notre Dame @ Marquette on ESPN360
2 pm – UConn @ USF on The Big East Network
2 pm – Notre Dame @ Marquette on The Big East Network
2 pm – South Carolina @ Vanderbilt on ESPN2
4 pm- UCLA @ Arizona State on CBS
4 pm – Texas @ Baylor on ESPN
4 pm – Big South Championship: Winthrop vs. Coastal Carolina on ESPN2
4 pm – Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech on ESPN360
6 pm – Tennessee @ Mississippi State on ESPN
6 pm – Atlantic Sun Championship: ETSU @ Mercer on ESPN2
8 pm – OVC Championship: Murray State vs. Morehead State on ESPN2
9 pm – UNC @ Duke on ESPN
9 pm – New Mexico State @ Utah State on ESPN360
We will be back at 11 AM for our continuing coverage so check back then and feel free to comment or ask questions in the comment section.
11:00: Nice showing by the Duke student for GameDay. Not going to be Kentucky because of the smaller student body and smaller arena.
11:10: Ugh. Speedo guy segment coming on GameDay. I will be switching the channel for a few minutes when that segment is going to start. Way to show segments that your audience will be interested in. Would they do a “Bikini girl” segment or would that not be PC?
11:20: Coach K does not approve of “Speedo guy”. I think we have finally found something that UNC fans will agree with him on. Seriously ESPN. Why are you featuring this idiot?
11:25: Be back in 5 minutes. Tell me when it is over.
11:30: Back again. Knight does not look amused, which amuses me.
11:45: So Sherron Collins was a great athlete in high school, plays video games, and like macaroni. I’m glad we found that out. Why can’t GameDay do legit segments like the one on the Syracuse zone they did earlier this year?
Noon: Hubert picks UNC. Big surprise. Knight and Bilas are calling for a Duke beat down. I’d go with something in between the two.
12:05: Three interesting games on right now none of which is the FSU-Miami game that ESPN2 decided to show over Cincinnati-Georgetown. The best of the three games is clearly the West Virginia-Villanova game, which we are doing a RTC Live for so be sure to check that out.
12:15: Interesting news: Both Luke Harangody and Austin Freeman will play today according to Seth Davis and Jeff Goodman respectively.
An article appearing in The Washington Post on Thursday details how Georgetown’s inestimable junior guard Austin Freeman was recently diagnosed with diabetes, and how that is the illness — not a stomach virus, as initially reported — that’s caused him to feel poorly in recent days. It was this which caused him to play only reduced minutes against Notre Dame and miss the game against West Virginia this past Saturday. He was, in fact, taken to the Georgetown University Hospital emergency room on Monday at which time the diagnosis was made clear.
The article mentions that Freeman is doing better and has now rejoined his team for practices, but Hoya head coach John Thompson III was reluctant to rule Freeman either in or out for Georgetown’s final regular season game on Saturday against Cincinnati, or even for the Big East Tournament.
Diabetes is pretty common, affecting about 3% of the world’s population. It’s characterized by having high amounts of glucose (sugar) in one’s bloodstream. This is a problem because if you go for a long time like this, you can do permanent damage to your eyes, kidneys, nerves, heart, and pretty much any part of your body. Usually, the pancreas counters high amounts of sugar in the blood by automatically producing insulin, a substance that makes the sugar move out of your bloodstream and into your muscles. This makes the level in the blood normal again.
Feeling Title-y. There were three conference championships won tonight around the nation, and you can count the number of people on one hand who had these three picks back in November.
#7 Ohio State 73, Illinois 57. Evan Turner put in his usual work (16/12/5 assts) for the Buckeyes and Jon Diebler rained seven threes as OSU pulled away in the second half to win at least a share of the Big 10 regular season title. Both Purdue and Michigan State will need to win both of their remaining games this week to tie the Buckeyes at the top of the standings, but regardless, OSU will be the top seed in next week’s Big 10 Tournament. If you’re looking for a darkhorse Final Four candidate, look no further than this Buckeye team with NPOY Turner leading the charge. We heard that they RTC’d tonight in Columbus to celebrate the championship, but we’ve yet to have visual confirmation of this.
Who Had OSU as Big Ten Champs in November? (AP/T. Gilliam)
#1 Syracuse 85, St. John’s 66. Newly-minted #1 Syracuse put five players into double figures in an easy win that captured the Big East regular season title outright tonight. The Orange were led by Arinze Onuaku’s 21/8 as the senior played in front of his mother for the first time in his career. SU will now travel to Louisville for a Saturday matchup against one of the two teams that has beaten them this year, while the presumably-motivated Cards will be playing for their postseason lives as they simultaneously close down Freedom Hall. Will Jim Boeheim’s kids have the focus needed to overcome the expected Cardinal surge with their top seed in the Big East Tournament already sewn up?
#21 UTEP 80, Marshall 76. The Miners clinched the CUSA regular season title with a strong second half showing led by star Randy Culpepper, who poured in 22 of his 31 points after the break. UTEP has now won thirteen in a row and they’re doing it with great defense and balanced scoring from the aforementioned Culpepper and big men Derrick Caracter (14/9 on the year) and Arnett Moultrie (10/7 on the year). Marshall’s Hassan Whiteside threw up another ridiculous line (20/14/6 blks), but it wasn’t enough for the Herd, who now drop to 10-5 in the conference. UTEP is ranked #50 in the RPI, but you’d have to believe a strong showing in next week’s CUSA Tourney will get them in.
Teams That Helped Themselves. There were a lot more teams that seemed more interested in hurting themselves than helping themselves this evening.
Clemson. The Tigers guaranteed themselves a winning ACC record with tonight’s win over Georgia Tech, in so doing also likely cemented a spot in the NCAA Tournament. With a win on Saturday at Wake Forest, Clemson will also earn a first-round bye into the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament next week.
Marquette. The Golden Eagles were already in the NCAA Tournament, but their win tonight solidifies things and also gives MU a shot at the prestigious double-bye in the Big East Tourney next week. Now at 11-6 in conference, they need Pitt to lose twice this week, but at worst with this win Marquette will end up with the #5 seed.
Missouri. Mizzou played with fire in allowing its game with Iowa State to go into overtime, but Zaire Taylor’s driving two at the buzzer gave them the escape they needed to make a claim on third place in the Big 12 standings. Taylor essentially won the game for the Tigers, with three clutch shots in key situations. They’ll have an opportunity to make some noise on Saturday when they host Kansas in Columbia.
Even though ESPN likes to hype up its Bracketbuster day, the fact is that the last few weeks of the season act like an elimination tournament with teams moving in and out of the NCAA Tournament, while other teams move up and down on a daily basis. While each and every game could theoretically have an impact on the Bubble and NCAA seeding, there are a few games that matter more than the others which we will feature over the next two weeks leading up to the conference tournaments. We will feature these in two posts per week. The first will be a post released on Sunday night for games from Monday through Thursday, and the second will be a post released on Thursday night for games from Friday through Sunday.
Tenth Georgia Tech at Clemson on Raycom/ESPN Full Court at 8 PM on Tuesday – This game is important not just for NCAA seeding, but also for ACC seeding. Both teams are currently occupying a position in the ACC standings where they could easily rank anywhere from 3rd in the conference all the way down to 7th in the conference. That conference rank could be the difference between having to play Duke or having to play UNC (ok, I’ll admit that was a cheap shot Tar Heel fans) early in the ACC Tournament. As you would expect from fairly similar teams, they both sit in the middle of most brackets. I could see either one going as high as a 6-seed or as low as a 9-seed when Selection Sunday roles around and these head-to-head match-ups will play a huge role in where they fit in the bracket.
Ninth Memphis at UAB on Comcast Sports South at 9 PM on Wednesday – It still seems incredible after all these years of John Calipari’s teams dominating Conference USA that the Tigers are no longer dominating CUSA any more. In fact, these two Conference USA teams will be playing for more than the #2 seed in the CUSA Tournament (UTEP is in the driver’s seat for the #1 seed) when they meet in Birmingham. They might be playing for an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament as well. Most bracketologists have the Blazers as one of their last teams in while the Tigers are one of the last teams out. A win by Josh Pastner’s squad could cause the teams to flip positions into and out of the bracket overnight. Normally I might make this game even higher, but I’m not buying the UTEP Kool-Aid and the loser could still get in with either a win in the conference tournament over the other or could potentially win the CUSA Tournament outright.
Eighth Oklahoma State at #24 Texas A&M on ESPN at 9 PM on Wednesday – Both teams are coming off huge home wins. Now the question is whether they can sustain the momentum. The Cowboys will need to show they can win away from the land of perpetual T. Boone Pickens money and the Aggies will need to show they can win against a team that isn’t collapsing. Both teams are currently in a group of five Big 12 teams with in-conference records of either 8-6 or 9-5. A win here or there could mean the difference between finishing 3rd in the conference or finishing 7th in the conference and even though OSU has a win over KU everybody in the Big 12 (and the country) wants to avoid the Jayhawks for as long as possible in any tournament (Big 12 or NCAA). Right now both teams are in the 6-8 seed range, but a hot or cold streak to finish the season could mean anywhere from a 5-seed to a 10-seed for these two teams.
Seventh #19 Vanderbilt at Florida on ESPN at 7 PM on Tuesday – The Gators are coming off a tough two-point loss at Georgia, but their prior three-game winning streak has assured them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Now they are entering a two-game stretch (home versus Vanderbilt then at Kentucky) where it might appear that they can only help their NCAA seed and a win could boost them 2-3 spots, but if they lose these two and their opener in the SEC Tournament a four-game losing streak might be enough to take them to the NIT for the third straight year. As for the Commodores, they have a treacherous two-game finish in Gainesville then at home against Devan Downey and company. They are currently chasing a #3 or #4 seed, but a loss in either of those games could cripple their chances at getting a top-4 seed (barring an upset victory over Kentucky in the SEC Tournament). Technically they still have a chance of winning the SEC regular season title (if they win out and the Wildcats finish on a 3-game losing streak), but we don’t see that happening.
Can Chandler Parsons and his Gators shoot their way into the field?
Sixth #9 Villanova at Cincinnati on ESPN2 at 7 PM on Tuesday – The question here is how these teams respond to difficult loses on Saturday. Villanova’s loss was more visible and watched (by just about everyone in upstate New York–aka everything outside of NYC), but the Bearcats suffered a difficult loss in Morgantown where they blew a 2nd half lead before falling just short. The Wildcats loss likely will keep them out of a #1 seed, but the Bearcats loss might be enough to keep them out the NCAA Tournament altogether. A win here for Villanova would be big to ensure that they stay on the 2-seed line while Cincinnati needs a win here and probably at Georgetown along with 1 or 2 wins in the Big East Tournament to punch their ticket to the Big Dance.
Even though ESPN likes to hype up its Bracketbuster day the fact is that the last few weeks of the season act like an elimination tournament with teams moving in and out of the NCAA Tournament while other teams move up and down on a daily basis. While each and every game could theoretically have an impact on the Bubble and NCAA seeding there are a few games that matter more than the others which we will feature over the next two weeks leading up to the conference tournaments. We will feature these in two posts per week. The first will be a post released on Sunday night for games from Monday through Thursday and the second will be a post released on Thursday/Friday night for games from Friday through Sunday.
Fifth #21 Texas at #23 Texas A&M at 2 PM on ESPN on Saturday – These two teams are on edge of being anywhere from a #4 to a #8 seed so this is obviously a big game for both teams because when the Selection Committee is placing teams in the bracket they will look at how they did head-to-head. Texas has been disappointing this year, but they have a chance to salvage their season with a late rally. The big question is how they respond to the loss of Dogus Balbay. Texas A&M is in essentially the same situation that the Longhorns are just with much less fanfare and volatility. The winner here has a shot at a 4 seed while the loser is going to be looking at a #7 seed at best barring a run in the Big 12 Conference Tournament, but perhaps the biggest prize for the winner will be moving up to try and avoid Kansas in the Conference Tournament for as long as possible.
Fourth Illinois State at #22 Northern Iowa at 8:05 PM on ESPN2 on Saturday – I know after the media’s lovefest for the Panthers this year it might be shocking to hear that they might need to win this game to guarantee a spot in the NCAA Tournament, but after their shocking loss at Evansville they might need this one for an at-large bid if they slip up in Arch Madness. Jordan Eglseder is scheduled to return from his suspension today and the Panthers will need him against Illinois State. The Redbirds have no illusions of an at-large bid, but this game is significant for their automatic bid chances as it would give them a shot at the #2 seed in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament and help them avoid the Panthers until the finals, which is particularly important since there are only 3 solid teams in the MVC.
Will Eglseder’s return spark the Panthers?
Third #8 Villanova at #4 Syracuse at 9 PM on ESPN on Saturday - Yes. The biggest game ever (!) slides in as the #3 game of the weekend in our rankings. Obviously this is the marquee game of the weekend in terms of big names, but it holds a little less significance for the NCAA Tournament then some would think. A win here for Syracuse would give them clinch the Big East regular season title for the Orange, but they already have the coveted double-bye (an absolute joke) in the Big East Tournament. The bigger issue for Jim Boeheim’s squad is their quest for a #1 seed. With Purdue basically being eliminated in the talk about the final two #1 seeds (see below), a Syracuse win would give them the inside track for one of those seeds. As for Villanova, they have an outside shot at a #1 seed, but they will need a lot of help thanks to their #50 SOS (yes, I double checked and yes I was shocked too). Their main concern should be trying to avoid slipping for a #3 or possibly even #4 seed with a difficult three-game stretch to end the season (at Syracuse, at Cincinnati, and home versus West Virginia).
As the season winds closer to a conclusion and Selection Sunday approaches, a bracket snapshot each Monday just doesn’t quite seem adequate. From now until the end of the year, we’ll be providing a Friday seed update that outlines where each team inside and just outside the field of 65 currently stands along with reasoning why certain teams changed seed number since the previous Monday.
(Note: each of the four teams in one seed grouping is listed in pecking order in terms of who is closer to moving up a seed line. This is used to determine game location and matchups similar to Joe Lunardi’s S-Curve listing. Auto bids marked in italics).
#1 Seeds: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Purdue
#2 Seeds:Duke, Kansas State, Villanova, West Virginia
#3 Seeds: Georgetown, New Mexico, Ohio State, Pittsburgh
#4 Seeds: Vanderbilt, BYU, Temple, Wisconsin
#5 Seeds: Michigan State, Gonzaga, Butler, Baylor
#6 Seeds: Texas, Xavier, Texas A&M, Tennessee
#7 Seeds: Wake Forest, Richmond, Maryland, Northern Iowa
RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every week until Madness ensues.
With just over two weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, the bubble is starting to shrink as more teams move into lock status:
Richmond- The current A-10 co-leader has the most difficult stretch to finish the season with trips to Xavier and Charlotte and a home date with Dayton. Even losing all three wouldn’t squash the Spiders.
Xavier- The Musketeers really only needed to split their road trip at Charlotte and St. Louis. Instead, they went out and won both. With a high RPI and three winnable games left, Xavier is back in the field yet again.
Maryland- The Terrapins have now won four in a row and collected huge home wins over Georgia Tech in miracle fashion and Clemson in comeback fashion. Gary Williams has his squad 10-3 in the ACC.
Missouri- Mike Anderson’s team only needs to win one of their next four games (the four includes their first round matchup in the Big 12 Tournament). The home win over Texas pretty much sealed the deal.
Baylor- The Bears clinched a berth with their squeaker over Texas A&M last night in Waco. Their non-conference wins over Xavier (neutral) and at Arizona State seems a bit stronger, as well.
Texas- Winning at Texas Tech and taking care of Oklahoma State in Austin were the clinchers. Texas has four wins vs. the RPI top-50, but could still finish at a disappointing 9-7 in the Big 12.
Texas A&M- The win at Iowa State last Saturday clinched their bid. The Aggies have tremendous computer numbers, won at Missouri and beat Baylor at home.
UNLV- A lock for two reasons: 1) wins over BYU, at New Mexico, at Arizona and vs. Louisville and 2) their final two games against Wyoming and Air Force, teams that have combined for three MWC wins this season.
Atlantic 10
Locks: Temple, Richmond, Xavier
Rhode Island (28 RPI, 60 SOS)- The Rams hit a rough patch in mid-February losing three in a row in A-10 play, but they righted the ship this past Saturday against hapless Fordham and now head into their last three very winnable games. URI must travel to St. Bonaventure and Massachusetts with a huge bubble game against Charlotte at home sandwiched in between. If the Rams win out, they’ll finish 23-6 (11-5) in a strong Atlantic 10 and would, in all likelihood, received a bid as long as they’re not upset in the first round of the conference tournament. What’s concerning is that the Rams will head into that tournament with just two wins vs. the RPI top 50- Oklahoma State and Dayton. Current seed range: 11-12.
Dayton (43 RPI, 37 RPI)- Speaking of Dayton, unless the Flyers can stun Richmond on the road, they’ll be sitting squarely on the bubble heading into the A-10 tournament. Dayton probably passes the eye test and they do have out-of-conference wins over Georgia Tech on a neutral floor and Old Dominion. They’ve also lost a handful of close conference road games and beat fellow bubble squad Charlotte by 28 in their lone meeting. Still, the Flyers are just 3-6 vs. the RPI top 50 and 5-8 vs. the RPI top 100, and, factoring in a loss at Richmond on March 4, they’d finish an uninspiring 9-7 in A-10 play. It’ll come down to the A-10 tournament for the preseason favorites. Current seed range: Last Four Out.
Charlotte (55 RPI, 106 SOS)- The 49ers still have a shot to make the NCAA’s, but blew a golden opportunity at home against Xavier last Saturday to pick up an RPI top-25 win and lost by 14. Now they have to win two of their last three at George Washington, at Rhode Island and home vs. Richmond. Charlotte did pick up a big non-conference win at Louisville, but will the committee factor in the Cardinals depleted state at the time? What will help them more are A-10 wins over Temple and at Richmond. A 106 SOS and just four wins vs. the RPI top-100 doesn’t help the cause. They need to split those last two games to have a real shot. Current seed range: Last four out.
Bobby Lutz's 49ers are currently on the outside looking in
“Born Ready” has decided he’s not quite ready for the NBA, as the NYC prep legend-cum-Cincy guard told Bill Koch at the Cincinnati Enquirer today that he’s strongly leaning toward staying in college another year after (so far) a relatively up and down season. The UC freshman is averaging 11/4/2 assts in just over 27 minutes of action per game, but he’s only scored six points on 2-9 shooting in his last two games and has struggled with turnovers (2.6 per game) and his outside jumper all season long (20%). Here’s Lance Stephenson’s quote on the matter:
“I think I’m going to stay and keep working. I don’t think I’ve had an NBA season this year so the best choice for me is to stay.”
Maybe Born Ready is Wise Enough to Know When He's Ready
Well, at least he’s being honest. According to the article, NBA scouts have stated privately that he would be a low second-rounder at this point, and two draft tracking sites currently have him at #39 at #41, respectively. There’s no shortage of New York City schoolboy legends who failed to live up to their hype, but Felipe Lopez, Sebastian Telfair and Omar Cook immediately come to mind in varying degrees. But perhaps the best decision Stephenson ever made was to get away from the hustle and flow culture of the NYC basketball circuit by moving to the calmer and more reasonable environs of the Queen City. By avoiding the endless crush of wannabe agents and hangers-on endemic to New York telling him how great he is at every turn, he might have just saved his career from an early flameout.
As Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin alluded to in the article, Stephenson’s biggest difficulty as a freshman in the Big East has been learning when to play within the offense rather than taking it upon himself to score every time downcourt. Even the more-ballyhooed John Wall has started to face the reality that playing 1-on-3 or even 1-on-4 isn’t always the best option in a team’s offense, no matter how many ridiculous skills at putting the ball in the basket you possess. When you’ve been The Man for your entire life, this is a subtlety often lost on young players transitioning to both the college and NBA game, but the ones who become great eventually learn it. The first step toward that end is simple recognition of physical limitations, and the above quote from Stephenson signifies to us that he might be getting it.
The “Born Ready” moniker is a humorous one because it portends an arrogance that young players often carry, but maybe in this case, the nickname actually refers to the wisdom to know when you’re ready rather than the actual readiness itself. If so, we’d expect to see Stephenson playing for pay for a very long time. Just not next year.
Even though ESPN likes to hype up its Bracketbuster day the fact is that the last few weeks of the season act like an elimination tournament with teams moving in and out of the NCAA Tournament while other teams move up and down on a daily basis. While each and every game could theoretically have an impact on the Bubble and NCAA seeding there are a few games that matter more than the others which we will feature over the next two weeks leading up to the conference tournaments. We will feature these in two posts per week. The first will be a post released on Sunday night for games from Monday through Thursday and the second will be a post released on Thursday night for games from Friday through Sunday.
Fifth #8 West Virginia at UConn at 7 PM on ESPN on Monday – The Mountaineers will need a miracle to get a #1 seed, but this is a “must-win” if UConn wants to get into the NCAA Tournament. After this game the Huskies do not have another opponent that would impress the Selection Committee until they begin the Big East Tournament. Despite the fact that their “ceiling” is probably a #2 seed this game is also very important for the Mountaineers who need to be careful here because they finish with a tricky stretch with this game being following by games at home against Cincinnati and Georgetown then a trip to Villanova before the Big East Tournament. If the Mountaineers do not finish strong (at least 2-2) they could be looking at a #4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Ebanks is the X-factor for West Virginia
Fourth #22 Texas A&M at #24 Baylor at 9 PM on ESPNU on Wednesday – This is one game that does not feature a bubble team since both of these teams are in the NCAA Tournament, but this game does have big seeding implications. Right now these teams are competing for the #3 spot in the Big 12 behind Kansas and Kansas State. Both of these teams could fall anywhere from a #5 seed to a #8 seed and the difference for both could well be this game. Texas A&M has been playing well lately with only one loss this month (by 5 to Kansas). Up until Saturday when they lost in Stillwater, Baylor had not lost since they traveled to College Station. Now the Bears welcome the Aggies to Waco hoping to return the favor as inhospitable hosts. Both teams have favorable schedules down the stretch (read: no Kansas or Kansas State) so the winner of this has the inside track along with Texas for that coveted #3 seed in the Big 12 Tournament to avoid Kansas in the semifinals and get a higher seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Third Oklahoma State at #21 Texas at 9 PM on ESPN2 on Wednesday – The Cowboys picked up a big win on Saturday against Baylor, which should put them on the inside of the Bubble, but they are entering a difficult 3-game stretch: at Texas, home against Kansas, and at Texas A&M. Winning 2 of 3 should ensure that the Cowboys get in to the NCAA Tournament, but if they lose all 3 games (not an unreasonable proposition) they will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday. As for the Longhorns, we are not sure what to say about them at this point. Outside of UNC there has not been a more disappointing team in the nation–the Tar Heels have a safe lead in this category–yet we know that they are the one underachieving team that nobody wants to see in the pod when the brackets come out. Right now people have them in the #5-6 range, but they have a 4 very winnable games to finish the regular season (at Texas A&M and Baylor will be challenging as both teams took the Longhorns to OT in Austin earlier this year, but the Longhorns should expect to win those games). If they can get their act together, this team could get back to a #3-4 seed given their 3 wins (and counting) against the RPI top 25. If they don’t they could slip down to the #8-9 range, which could make for a very interesting 2nd round match-up in the NCAA Tournament for a #1 seed.
For the third week in a row, Michael Rothstein at AnnArbor.com has taken a straw poll of nearly fifty journalists from around the nation who have a vote in one of the major national Player of the Year awards (presumably the AP, Wooden, and Naismith). Like the annual Heisman Trophy analyses that pop up every November, the straw poll gives us a sense as to who the top NPOY candidates are heading into the final few weeks of the season as well as any trends for better or worse that are occuring. This week’s list, released Wednesday prior to tonight’s games, is below.
Right now it appears to be a two-horse race between Ohio State’s Evan Turner and Kentucky’s John Wall, but for the first time in the three weeks of the straw poll, The Villain received more votes. It’s unclear whether these votes were tallied before Wall’s near-triple double on Tuesday night, but Turner more than held his own tonight against Purdue with 29/7/5 assts himself (although OSU lost the game). If DeMarcus Cousins keeps putting in the work for John Calipari’s Wildcats, he could begin shaving off even more of Wall’s supporters, as murmurs of an anti-Wall hype backlash are already surfacing in some circles.
Evan Turner is #1, For Now...
It’s somewhat interesting to us that Scottie Reynolds outpolled Syracuse’s Wesley Johnson in the Big East, even though Johnson has been the more celebrated player throughout the season — their relative placement on this list could literally come down to one game in Syracuse on February 27. If Kansas keeps winning, expect to see Sherron Collins rise up this list fairly quickly, especially if he has another big game where he leads his team to a close victory. We wouldn’t think Cole Aldrich will have a similar track, though, simply because his overall numbers are so pedestrian compared to the other names above him on the list (note: we recognize his substantial impact, but NPOY winners have better numbers than Aldrich will have this year).
With nearly four weeks until Selection Sunday, keep in mind that college basketball writers are a fickle bunch. At this time of year, one particularly inspiring nationally-televised game can seal it for a player near the top of this list. For example, who could ever forget the dominating Kenyon Martin performance against DePaul that sealed his NPOY award in 2000, or the 30/16 game that a baby-faced freshman Kevin Durant dropped in a double-overtime win against rival Texas A&M in 2007? There may not seem like there’s a lot of basketball to be played, but writers fairly or unfairly place much more emphasis on the games near the end of the season when making their selections. It’ll be worth keeping an eye on this straw poll the final few weeks to see how it ends up.
***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game
#25 Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech – 7 pm on ESPN2 (****)
This game might feature two of the most underrated teams in the entire country. It took a four-game winning streak for Wake Forest to crack the bottom of the top 25, and the 20-4 Hokies are still unranked in both polls. In fact, Virginia Tech ranks just #50 in the RPI and are still considered by many to be a bubble team. VT’s out of conference schedule is weak, but with four straight wins against ACC opponents, they are 7-3 in the league, just half a game behind Wake Forest and still in contention to win the conference. Before the Hokies can even think about an ACC title, though, they need to prove their legitimacy against a solid Wake Forest team. This game may only end up in the low 60s for both teams, as neither ranks in the top 70 in offensive efficiency, and both rank among the top 20 defensive teams. Virginia Tech, whose leading scorer shoots below 40%, ranks #113 in Ken Pomeroy’s offensive ratings, so a below-average shooting night could bring this game down to the 50s. If the Hokies want to be successful tonight, they are going to have to stop Wake Forest in the post. Led by Al-Farouq Aminu, the Demon Deacons score the majority of their points from forwards and centers, and they rank third in the nation in rebounds per game. Virginia Tech has not lost in Blacksburg yet, but they will face their toughest test of the season tonight.
Cincinnati @ South Florida - 7 pm on ESPNU (**)
With their recent performances, South Florida played itself out of the tournament and Cincinnati is on the verge of playing themselves back in. USF has lost their last two games to other bubble teams (Notre Dame and Marquette) and are now not even in Joe Lunardi’s first eight teams out. The Bearcats, on the other hand, are coming off a game in which they held UConn to their lowest point total since 2002, and are now the second team out according to Lunardi. Like the Wake Forest vs. Virginia Tech matchup, this game will also be extremely low scoring. Both teams give up less than 66 points per game, and neither ranks in the top 70 in offensive efficiency. Cincinnati has no players scoring over 12 points per game, and they rank #112 in offensive efficiency. On paper, it would seem like USF would score more than 68.9 points per game, with four players averaging over 10 points per game and two players scoring over 17 points per game. However, one reason for that is Gus Gilchrist just returned from an injury that kept him sidelined since December 2. In his first game back against Marquette, he scored 10 points below his season average of 17.4 (most of USF’s earlier games were against weaker teams), but if he can provide some quality minutes and score close to what he did earlier in the year, USF should be able to win this game. Cincinnati is just 2-6 on the road this year, and despite a relatively empty crowd at the Sun Dome, the Bulls should at least play themselves back in the bubble discussion.
Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist. He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next two months.
Last Four In: Dayton, Mississippi, Virginia Tech, Louisville
Last Four Out: Cincinnati, Saint Mary’s, San Diego State, Mississippi State
Next Four Out: Florida, Memphis, South Florida, Texas Tech
Multiple bids per conference: Big East (7), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Atlantic 10 (6), Big Ten (5), SEC (4), Mountain West (3), Colonial (2), Conference USA (2).
Automatic bids: Stony Brook, Richmond, Duke, Belmont, Kansas, Villanova, Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Michigan State, UC-Santa Barbara, Northeastern, Butler, UTEP, Cornell, Siena, Kent State, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Robert Morris, Murray State, California, Lehigh, Kentucky, Charleston, Sam Houston State, Jackson State, Oakland, Arkansas State, Gonzaga, Utah State
RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every week until Madness ensues.
It’s been almost two weeks since our last Bubble Watch, so let’s get right to it…
Atlantic 10
(With an incredible six bids if the season ended today and the realistic potential for five come Selection Sunday, I figured it was time the Atlantic 10 earned their own section).
Locks: Temple.
Rhode Island (15 RPI, 73 SOS)- The Rams don’t have a bad loss on their schedule and picked up an enormous split on the Xavier/Dayton trip in late January. Their best non-conference wins against Oklahoma State and Northeastern don’t necessarily stand out, but a top-15 RPI and 19-3 overall record means it would take an epic collapse if the Rams aren’t dancing for the first time under Jim Baron. Seed range: 7-9.
Xavier (26 RPI, 19 SOS)- Xavier’s resume isn’t quite as impressive as those numbers might indicate. Their three best wins all came at home against bubble team Cincinnati and Atlantic-10 foes Dayton and Rhode Island. Emerging victorious in one of their nail-biting losses at Butler and at Wake Forest would have been enormous for their NCAA chances. A win at Florida this Saturday provides another opportunity. Seed range: 8-9.
Richmond (31 RPI, 66 SOS)- The blowout win over Temple last Saturday pushed the Spiders from bubble team to comfortably in. They picked up quality non-conference wins over Missouri, Old Dominion and Florida while a win tonight at Rhode Island would make it awfully difficult to deny them a bid. Seed range: 8-9.
Dayton (#34 RPI, #39 SOS)- The Flyers needed to beat Xavier at home and did the job. Remember, their only three out of conference losses were against top-20 teams. The St. Joe’s loss stands out as ugly but the next four games are all winnable before a clash at Temple on February 24. Seed range: 10-12.
Charlotte (#45 RPI, #151 SOS)- The 49ers still have work to do even on their perch atop the Atlantic 10 standings. They were annihilated in most of their non-conference games against NCAA teams (exception being a destruction of shorthanded Louisville) but they have picked up A-10 wins over Temple at home and by 12 at Richmond. The key stretch could be 4 of 6 at home to end the year with Xavier and Richmond in that mix. Charlotte appears to be in a pretty good position overall. Seed range: 9-10.
ACC
Locks: Duke.
Wake Forest (#16 RPI, #23 SOS)- Wake is inching closer and closer to lock status. Their computer numbers are terrific and they have enviable wins at Gonzaga and against both Richmond and Xavier in overtime. Taking care of business Saturday at home against Georgia Tech would do the trick. Seed range: 5-7.
Georgia Tech (#24 RPI, #13 SOS)- The Yellow Jackets are comfortably in the field with their five wins against the RPI top 50. But they do finish with four of seven on the road including difficult visits to Wake Forest, Maryland and Clemson. A mediocre ACC record might hurt their seed. Seed range: 5-7.
Derrick Favors is the x-factor in Georgia Tech's quest for a high seed
Florida State (#37 RPI, #51 SOS)- After their game tonight in Littlejohn Coliseum against Clemson, the Seminoles end with a schedule that is very friendly. Their road games are all against likely NIT teams Virginia, North Carolina and Miami. Their only RPI top-25 wins have come against Georgia Tech, though, so some resume enhancement is necessary for Florida State to feel 100% comfortable. Seed range: 7-9.
Clemson (#43 RPI, #37 SOS)- At 4-5 in the ACC, Clemson needs to start winning games or their projected seed will keep plummeting. Their only notable non-conference win came against Butler on a neutral floor and their best ACC win was at home against Maryland. They could go 3-0 in this homestand against Florida State, Miami and Virginia to ease the minds of panicking Tiger fans. Seed range: 10-11.
Maryland (#44 RPI, #32 RPI)- A win Saturday at Duke would go a long way towards an ACC regular season title and lock status for the tournament, but that’s a bit much to demand. The sweep of Florida State only slightly makes up for a lack of quality non-conference wins. Still, just getting to 10-6 in the ACC should be enough for a bid. Seed range: 8-9.
Virginia Tech (#63 RPI, #235 SOS)- Their non-conference schedule is an absolute joke and the committee strongly factors that facet of a team’s portfolio. This means Tech needs to compile more and more ACC wins. They’ve done a nice job so far and qualified for my last bracket on the heels of their 5-3 conference mark. Avoiding a slip-up at NC State tonight is vital for their hopes. Seed range: 12-13.
RTC contributor and bracketologist Zach Hayes will deliver ten permeating thoughts every week as the season progresses.
1. One team that I believe could make a run for the Final Four that people seem to be slightly ignoring is Wisconsin. The Badgers should be favored in every game the remainder of their schedule other than possibly at Minnesota or at Illinois. Remember, Wisconsin already played their six games against fellow Big Ten contenders Michigan State, Purdue and Ohio State and emerged clean with a 3-3 split. Finishing the season on a 6-1 run basically guarantees the Badgers a top-three finish depending on the fortunes of those rival teams and that could put Wisconsin in the tremendous position to play their first two NCAA games in nearby Milwaukee. Bo Ryan’s team is incredibly efficient, ranking in the top-20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They’re top-40 in the nation in two-point FG%, FT%, blocks and steals and rank just below in effective FG%. The Badgers boast tremendous computer numbers- #9 RPI, #10 SOS, #53 non-conference SOS- and have three wins against the RPI top-15. Not many teams can match that overall portfolio. Throw in the committee factoring in the Jon Leuer injury, and it’s entirely plausible Wisconsin could go from being predicted ninth in the Big Ten to earning a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Throw Bo Ryan’s name in there along with Jim Boeheim, John Calipari and Steve Alford for National Coach of the Year.
Trevon Hughes has emerged as a star during his senior year
2. One team that no high-major wants to see in the first round of the NCAA Tournament is Siena. We know their recent history of winning tournament games, toppling 4-seed Vanderbilt two years ago and pulling out a 2OT classic over 8-seed Ohio State a season ago largely due to the heroics of Ronald Moore. While the Saints did blow their chances to pick up quality wins out of MAAC play- losing to Northern Iowa, Georgia Tech and Temple- Siena is inching towards the polls, boasting an unblemished 13-0 conference record and a winning streak that stretches back to mid-December. A win in Hinkle Fieldhouse against Butler on February 20 would make it an absolute certainty Siena earns a bid regardless of the MAAC Tournament, but even with a loss the Saints should run through their conference regular season and postseason at 21-0 and garner a seed in the 9-11 range. Other than Kenny Hansbrouck, head coach Fran McCaffrey has nearly his entire squad returning from that Ohio State victory. Moore is averaging an incredible 8.1 APG to lead the nation while Edwin Ubiles appears to be inching towards 100% after a banged-up start to the campaign. Ryan Rossiter has developed into a legitimate low-post threat and effective rebounder and fellow frontcourt mate Alex Franklin is one of the most efficient scorers around. There’s plenty to like with regards to Siena’s chances to pulling off another first round upset: top-50 efficient offense, tremendous coaching, four double-digit scorers and, most notably, the experience of success in March.
3. There are a few reasons why the Atlantic 10 has earned an astonishing six bids in Monday’s bracket: 1) the Pac-10 turning into a one-bid league, 2) Big Ten teams like Michigan and Minnesota disappointing and 3) a mediocre middle of the Big East. Most of all, though, the league is just really good. The top-flight teams all challenged themselves out-of-conference and picked up impressive wins to show for it, from Temple knocking off Villanova, to Richmond downing Missouri and Florida, Rhode Island beating Oklahoma State and Charlotte dominating Louisville in Freedom Hall. With the exception of Rhode Island, all of the other five bid-earners have a win over the RPI top 25, and the Rams have the highest overall RPI of the bunch mostly because they played the 28th strongest non-conference schedule in the nation. Dayton could be the team closest to the bubble; if they had fallen to Xavier at home on Saturday, the Flyers likely would have been on the outside looking in this week. Still, Dayton did beat Georgia Tech in November and if they can split their two challenging road games at Temple and at Richmond in February, Brian Gregory’s team should be in decent shape. I’d fathom that Charlotte is still the most likely team to fall out even if they currently sit at the top of the standings. They barely edged George Washington and Fordham on the road this week and still have four games against these NCAA contenders, including roadies at Dayton and URI.