Friday, March 19 (all CBS)
12:25pm - Minnesota vs. Xavier
12:30pm - Cornell vs. Temple
2:30pm - Siena vs. Purdue
2:35pm - Missouri vs. Clemson
4:45pm - Utah St vs. Texas A&M
7:10pm - FSU vs. Gonzaga
7:15pm - Ga Tech vs. Okla St
7:20pm - NMSU vs. Michigan St
9:30pm - Syracuse vs. Vermont
9:40pm - Houston vs. Maryland
9:45pm - Louisville vs. California
Over the next two days in a series of separate posts, RTC will break down all 32 of the first round games using our best analytical efforts to understand these teams, the matchups and their individual strengths and weaknesses. Our hope is that you’ll let us know in the comments where you agree, disagree or otherwise think we’ve lost our collective minds. Here are the Friday evening games.
7:10 pm – #8 Gonzaga vs. #9 Florida State (Buffalo pod)
This is a very tough game to call, so let’s start with what we know about it. The Zags, no stranger to cross-country travel, come into Buffalo after an 11-day layoff where St. Mary’s took Mark Few’s team behind the woodshed and beat them handily in the WCC Tournament championship. Florida State comes in having dropped its quarterfinal game against NC State in an effort that had their fans shaking their heads in disgust. So needless to say, both teams are looking for a fresh start here. The Zags are always dangerous, and this year’s squad led by Matt Bouldin and Elias Harris has the offensive firepower to score with just about anyone in America. Merely an ok three-point shooting team, they tend to rely on the drives of Harris and mid-range game of Bouldin to create offense. However, they don’t tend to respond well to teams that crowd and push them around, but unfortunately, FSU is just such a team. The Seminoles enjoy the nation’s top defensive efficiency, and while they have the opposite problem of finding points, they should have no problem putting the clamps down on the Zag scoring options. The question here comes down to whether the FSU defense, anchored by 7′1 Solomon Alabi and 6′9 Chris Singleton’s combined four blocks per game, is better than the Gonzaga offense, and we think that it is. And as up/down as the Seminoles were in the ACC, they never came close to losing to the likes of Loyola Marymount and San Francisco, as Gonzaga did this year.
The Skinny: The Zags this year aren’t quite as good as they usually are, and they’re facing a team that will shut down their biggest strength. FSU wins this one by eight points to get a date with Syracuse.
7:15 pm – #7 Oklahoma State vs. #10 Georgia Tech (Milwaukee pod)
Here’s another one that’s got people confused. For good reason, too. All year long we’ve been waiting on Georgia Tech to do something with all that talent, and now they’re playing better basketball, just in time. Oklahoma State’s showing against Kansas State in the Big 12 Tournament will cost them some support, but we’re going to excuse that performance. That was a tired basketball team, playing their third game in a six day span with K-State at the end of it — and the Wildcats were coming off of a five-day rest. Georgia Tech is going to go inside to Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal like crazy, but when the Yellow Jackets actually shoot the three, they shoot it well. Defending the three is a glaring OSU weakness, so it will be interesting to see how often Georgia Tech eschews their big men in favor of launching it from the arc, because those shots will be there. So…good outside shooting, great inside players…sounds pretty good for Tech, right? The question will be whether or not they can get to that point in their offense. Georgia Tech ranks in the bottom twenty of Division I teams in terms of turning the ball over. Can the Jackets, then, find a way to keep James Anderson from shredding them or Keiton Page from raining threes?
The Skinny: Oklahoma State won’t have to exert too much energy guarding the three, since Tech’s propensity to turn the ball over will take care of some of that. The Cowboys have been getting more and more help from their role players, and we feel 9-7 in the Big 12 is better than 7-9 in the ACC this year. It’ll be a great first round game, but we like Oklahoma State in a close one.
This is an idea we’ve had bouncing around in the dome for a while now, and since we’re not smart enough to actually do a bunch of number-crunching analysis with regression formulas and all that other statistical nonsense, we’re going to do what we know how to do — eyeball it. (note: if you want a more data-driven analysis, visit Vegas Watch for a region-by-region breakdown) We’ve taken a look at the Pomeroy numbers for the last five seasons (2005-09) to get a sense as to the type of offensive and defensive efficiency numbers that constitute your typical Elite Eight/Final Four/Runner-Up/Championship team. We know that all of these teams are pretty darn good — but can we draw any conclusions based on the past five years of historical data that might give us a clue as to how we should be looking at this year’s bracket?
Here’s the list of roughly thirty or so teams with the strongest efficiency differentials in the 2009-10 season (sorted as such): that far right column is the key number for our purposes. The greater the efficiency differential, the more dominant a team tends to be. Remember that both the offensive and defensive efficiency statistics represent the number of points a team scores over 100 possessions of basketball. +120 is really good for offense, while less than 90 is really good on defense. Anytime a team’s differential approaches +30 points or more, we’re reaching rarefied air in college basketball. (note - Pomeroy doesn’t provide historical data prior to past years’ tournaments, but we still think there is some value in looking at his final ratings because the likelihood that a team significantly improves or regresses during the snapshot window of the NCAA Tournament is small). If you don’t follow Pomeroy regularly, you might be a little surprised at the placement of certain teams versus some others. Have a look…
So what, right? Well, let’s see if we can use the historical data that we have from Pomeroy to make assessments of this year’s batch of teams and their prospects.
National Champions
Let’s first take a look at the last five national championship teams. What jumps out at us immediately is that they’re all offensive juggernauts. Every one of them is ranked first or second in offensive efficiency. These teams know how to score the ball. Defensive efficiency is a little more spotty, but they’re all pretty good (<90 and ranking in the top twenty). The average differential is really high at 37.4 points per 100 possessions, and all of them easily reach the +30 threshold in that regard.
Each day this week during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament we’re asking some of our top correspondents to put together a collection of notes and interesting tidbits about each region. If you know of something that we should include in tomorrow’s submission, hit us up at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.
South Region Notes(Patrick Sellars)
The first “upset” of the tournament occurred in the South Region when SWAC champion Arkansas Pine-Bluff took down the Big South tournament champion Winthrop, 61-44. The Golden Lions earned the right to play top seeded Duke on Friday night.
When #9 Louisville takes on #8 California on Friday night, Louisville head coach Rick Pitino says he’ll be ready for the Bears’ “organized chaos.” There is also an interesting quote in the article from Cardinals’ guard Edgar Sosa that says he has heard Cal referred to as “poor man’s Marquette”.
Utah State’s leading scorer, junior guard Tai Wesley,broke his nose in the WAC tournament final on Saturday when the Aggies got pounded by New Mexico State. He will play in the Aggies’ upcoming game versus Texas A&M, but you have to wonder what kind of effect it will have on USU’s star. On TAMU’s side, they will have Dash Harris back in the lineup after he missed the Big 12 Tournament with a bone bruise in his right wrist. Head coach Mark Turgeon said that if his team wants any chance to win this weekend, they will need Harris healthy.
Fran McCaffery is not letting his Siena team think they can beat Purdue by just showing up in Spokane on Friday. He says Purdue is by far the best team Siena will face all season even without Robbie Hummel. You’d have to think a Butler Bulldogs fan would think otherwise.
Here is an interesting article from The Times-Picayune which highlights the #3Baylor vs. #14Sam Houston State game. Not only are the two teams from Texas, but they have two New Orleans natives returning to their home town for the first round. Star senior guards Tweety Carter (Baylor) and Ashton Mitchell (Sam Houston State) both played their high school ball in The Big Easy.
Villanova head coach Jay Wrighttold the Philadelphia Inquirer about his team’s lackluster play in first round games the past two seasons. Wright said “we’ve survived first-round games, but we really haven’t played well in first-round games.”
The big thing from the past week.Big Ten season ends in three way tie. Exciting as the seesaw race was all year, it ended in melodramatic fashion as both Purdue and Michigan State hung on after Ohio State had already won out several days prior. The Boilers and Spartans took care of business, beating teams they were supposed to beat. Michigan State racked up back to back banners, but the big story is that this was the first title for Purdue since 1996. Now to see how many teams can go to the dance based on their performance in the Big Ten tournament. Four Big Ten teams are in the top 25: #5 Ohio State, #6 Purdue, #11 Michigan State, and #13 Wisconsin.
Power Rankings (final)
Ohio State 24-7, 14-4
Purdue 26-4, 14-4
Michigan State 24-7, 14-4
Wisconsin 23-7, 13-5
Illinois 18-13, 10-8
Minnesota 18-12, 9-9
Northwestern 19-12, 7-11
Michigan 14-16, 7-11
Iowa 10-21, 4-14
Indiana 10-20, 4-14
Penn State 11-19, 3-15
Big Ten Tournament – Indianapolis – March 11th-14th
First Round
#9 Iowa vs. #8 Michigan – March 11 – 2:30 ET – ESPN2 – This game could really go either way. The first game was a 14-point victory for Michigan at home, whereas the second game was a two-point victory in OT for Michigan on the road. For Michigan, Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims both had at least 20 in each game, so look for that to continue. For Iowa, Aaron Fuller played well in the first game, but went crazy for 30 in the second game. Matt Gatens was absent in the first game, but exploded for 21 in the second game. Michigan comes in having lost four of six games while Iowa has lost the past five of six games. Iowa should do well inside in this game, but I think Michigan has finally figured out that they can’t rely totally on threes, so I am going with Michigan in this one.
#10 Indiana vs. #7 Northwestern – March 11 – 4:55 ET – ESPN2 – This game will most likely go to Northwestern. It is just too difficult to win two games against the same team within a week’s time, especially for a team as inconsistent as Indiana has been all year. The big thing Indiana has going for itself in this game and for this tournament is that they are essentially the home town team, especially if they are able to fill Lucas Oil Stadium with Indiana fans. If not, I think Northwestern has too much John Shurna and too much Michael Thompson for IU to handle. I also think Northwestern will make the adjustments on Jordan Hulls to stop his flurry of threes.
#11 Penn State vs. #6 Minnesota – March 11 – 7:30 ET – I am going with Minnesota in this one. They have really come on strong to close out the season, winning four of their last six games, including a 35-point drubbing of Iowa. Both of the matchups between these teams during the regular year were close victories for Minnesota, so I expect this one to be close because it is on neutral ground, and I wouldn’t expect either of the team’s fans to come out in droves. Penn State will need Chris Babb to have a big game along with Talor Battle and David Jackson, while Minnesota needs a consistent performance from Westbrook, Sampson, Hoffarber, and Johnson. The X-factor for Minnesota is Devoe Joseph who struggled in both contests. If he can step up then Minnesota wins easily; if not they will win in a close battle.
Close Calls. In two closer-than-expected games, #12 Michigan State and #18 Pittsburgh held on to their positions in the Big Ten and Big East, respectively, with quite a bit still on the line. For MSU, it’s a shot at a shared Big Ten regular season title; for Pitt, it was a double-bye in the Big East Tournament next week.
#18 Pittsburgh 73, Providence 71. In a closely contested game throughout, it was Ashton Gibbs who saved Pittsburgh from what would have been their worst loss of the season at full strength (the IU loss in December was without several players). With 3.5 seconds remaining, Gibbs (25/4/3 assts) received the ball at the right hash mark on the opposite end of his basket, took two dribbles before stopping and pulling up from about 28 feet to drain a game-winning three at the horn. The bucket moved the Panthers to 12-5 in the Big East, and with a win over Rutgers this weekend in combination with a Villanova loss to WVU, the preseason-unranked kids from the Steel City would be the #2 seed in next week’s Big East Tournament. Simply amazing considering the talent in that league this year.
Ashton Gibbs: "I Got This." (PPG/M. Freed)
#12 Michigan State 67, Penn State 65. We’re really not going to fall into this trap that Tom Izzo likes to set for us seemingly every year. His teams always win a bunch of games, but many of those wins seem to come by a mere point or two, and they also lose a few more than you might expect. Then the Spartans get into the NCAA Tournament and the very same players who were somewhat underwhelming during the regular season put it all together for another run to the Final Four. So we’ll reserve judgment on this year’s MSU team until we see what happens later this month. Tonight Penn State had the ball with five seconds remaining but they were unable to get a shot off to win or tie the game. With the win, MSU moves to 13-4 in the Big Ten and the Spartans will host rival Michigan this weekend to try to tie Ohio State (and possibly Purdue) for the top record in the league.
Should Washington Join the Bubble Conversation Along With Ole Miss, Dayton and Arizona State?
Washington 86, Oregon 72. With an RPI of #53, twenty wins, and a better strength of schedule than its bubble peers Mississippi State and Virginia Tech, shouldn’t the Huskies at least be in the conversation? They’ve beaten Texas A&M, Portland and Cal, which is a resume of quality Ws at least as good as Mississippi State (best win: Old Dominion), Dayton (best win: Xavier) and Virginia Tech (best win: Clemson). We’re well aware how down the Pac-10 has been this year, but just because everyone has already seemed to decide that it’s a one-bid league shouldn’t make it necessarily so. The resumes need to speak for themselves, and we’re having trouble understanding the difference between the above teams. Quincy Pondexter had 34/10/6 assts in tonight’s win.
Syracuse Poised to Move to #1. Remember the paucity of insanity we were lamenting in this space last weekend? No longer. Although the calendar still officially says February, March arrived in earnest on Saturday. In what was probably the single best weekend of the entire college hoops season (and hopefully portends a month of craziness), the top three teams in the media/coaches polls were vanquished. By 2:15 pm Saturday afternoon, #2 Kentucky had lost in Knoxville; four hours later, #1 Kansas had dropped its second game of the year in Stillwater; and by the same time on Sunday evening, #3 Purdue had joined the others with a loss. In an 0range-themed weekend with Tennessee and Oklahoma State doing damage, it is literally the Orange, as in #4 Syracuse, who stands to move to the top of the polls for just the second time during the regular season in its long and illustrious history (SU held the top spot for six weeks in 1989-90). And why not? The beatdown that Jim Boeheim’s team put on #8 Villanova on Saturday night was downright clinical in its division of labor and efficiency. Six of Boeheim’s seven “starters’ contributed double figure points; five of them grabbed seven or more rebounds; and, four offered three or more dimes for their efforts. If you focus on stopping Wesley Johnson, Arinze Onuaku (17/9/3 blks) burns you. If you take away Andy Rautins, Scoop Jardine (16/7 assts) picks him up. Rick Jackson? Kris Joseph (16/9/3 assts). Syracuse has an answer for every problem, and their zone, while perhaps not the best in college basketball history as Bob Knight said, is awfully good. The Orange have met every major challenge thrown at them this year, and when you take a look at their two losses (Pittsburgh and Louisville at home) you start to think that maybe they weren’t as mentally prepared for those games as they should have been, because in every one of their “big” games this year, they’ve been virtually flawless.
A Record On-Campus Crowd Saw SU Dominate Villanova (P-S/Lauren Long)
As For the Top Three… We’re not going to read too much into the losses that #1 Kansas and #2 Kentucky took on the road this weekend. Even great teams lose road games once in a while, and both Tennessee and Oklahoma State are good enough teams to do some damage in March (more discussion on both games in the conference recaps below). However, #3 Purdue isn’t getting off so easily. We already knew that Matt Painter’s team would continue to fight and claw in their inimitable style without the services of Robbie Hummel, but the Boilers got completely pushed around today (-28 rebounds) by the bigger, stronger Michigan State Spartans and their offense was a complete disaster without the versatile forward in the lineup (30% from the field; 22% from deep). How does the NCAA Selection Committee fairly evaluate this team? They’re likely to win their final two games against Indiana and Penn State, which would put them at 26-4 overall and 14-4 in the Big Ten with a 3-1 record sans Hummel. But Ohio State and Michigan State are likely to also finish at 14-4 in the Big Ten, which means that the winner of the Big Ten Tourney will have the inside track on a #1 seed, or at worst, a top #2 seed. But what if Purdue loses in the B10 quarters or semis? Are they a #2 seed or a #3 seed or lower? The resume is strong, but they’re just not the same team as they were with Hummel in the lineup. Honestly, we would wager that the Committee is secretly hoping that Purdue drops one or both of this week’s games to the bottom-feeders of the conference to make their decision to demote them more defensible.
Weekend Wrap. We just looked at the calendar again to make sure it was late February, and sure enough it is. We’re currently just three weeks away from Selection Sunday, and yet this weekend didn’t have the feel of one so close to the end of the year. Part of the reason is that we’ve come to expect more insanity at this point, as teams who are safely heading to March Madness let their guard down a little to the benefit of those who are not feeling as secure. Put in short, where are the upsets? In the top 25 alone this weekend, there was, what, one? #25 Wake Forest went to Raleigh and lost to the Wolfpack, who are quickly going nowhere. Who else? #3 Villanova losing at #21 Pitt – arguable, at best. If you remove the OSU-MSU game from consideration, in sixteen other games involving ranked teams only Baylor’s road loss at Oklahoma State is even up for discussion. And it’s really not. That said, even though there weren’t a bunch of upsets this weekend, there were a lot of good games. Still, with twenty-one days leading up to the Soiree, we’re ready to start seeing a little more mayhem.
Shades of Redick vs. Morrison. We’re loving us some NPOY discussion this late into the season, reminding us of the season four years ago when Duke’s JJ Redick and Gonzaga’s Adam Morrison played ‘top this‘ from opposite ends of the country throughout the year. This season the two primary contenders only reside about 200 miles apart, but each is incredibly important to his team’s fortunes and as of now, the college hoops world is falling squarely into rival camps — you’re either a John Wall or an Evan Turner guy. Arguments pro and con are filling up the airwaves and bandwidth and we expect that with each passing game the intensity of partisanship will get stronger. This weekend didn’t solve anything, and in fact, may have exacerbated the dissension — depending on whom you ask, both Turner and Wall helped their case this weekend in big road wins for their teams.
Wall for NPOY? (AP)
#2 Kentucky 58, #19 Vanderbilt 56. For about 38 minutes of yesterday’s game in Memorial Gymnasium, John Wall was the invisible all-american. He had eight points on 2-10 shooting, and had effectively been shut down by the tough, physical Vanderbilt defense. But when it came winning time, he once again made just enough plays to give his team the win — first, by driving to the hole and somehow securing the ball after it got stripped so that he could still find his head to lay it in to put UK up three, and second, by blocking a last-second three attempt (a terrible decision, btw) by John Jenkins that could have tied the game with four seconds remaining. He was also 3-4 from the line in the final minute to give the Cats just enough cushion to survive yet another close finish. By our count, that was no fewer than the fifth time this season that Wall has saved his team in the clutch. Whether it’s luck or skill that he keeps making plays in these pressure-packed situations, or some combination thereof, we are absolutely certain that he embraces them. And all the great ones do. Vandy will be kicking themselves over this loss for some time, as they had multiple chances to make open shots and really put Kentucky in a tough spot, but the shots wouldnt fall (2-20 from three), and UK effectively wrapped up the SEC regular season title with this one.
Or Turner for NPOY? (Kirthmon Dozier)
#12 Ohio State 74, #11 Michigan State 67. Evan Turner used the Breslin Center to do his best Michael Jordan vs. the Jazz impression, fighting off flu-like symptoms to the point where he was unable to eat anything prior to the game on Sunday morning. After a listless first half where he only scored four points and missed seven of his first eight shots, he was able to come through when his team needed him most in the second half, scoring twelve points in the final nine minutes to hold off MSU. Like Wall, Turner (20/10/6 assts) was picked up by his teammates prior to his strong finish, with William Buford offering 18/10 and David Lighty 13/9 themselves. The scary part for OSU fans is that Thad Matta only used six players today, and four of those played the entire game. As for the Spartans, defending conference POY Kalin Lucas had a rough night, shooting 3-13 for only nine points today. The Buckeye win ties OSU with Michigan State one-half game behind Purdue with three games left to play in the Big Ten race. While the rest of America is entranced with the talents of Mr. Turner, the question we have is: does anyone in Columbus care?
Statement Wins. It was Super Tuesday tonight, and two teams came into this evening with a little something to prove to America on national television. Or at least, that’s the way it looked from our perspective. Two black-and-gold colored teams — Vanderbilt and Purdue — played with meaningful purpose, as if to overcome the perception (right or wrong) that they were the weaker sister in the games tonight. Memo to those teams residing in Nashville and West Lafayette: message received, loud and clear.
Purdue With Statement Win in E. Lansing (Kevin Fowler)
#6 Purdue 76, #10 Michigan State 64. We’re a little tired of harping on this because, frankly, it’s too easy. But once again Purdue got a strong performance from their center JaJuan Johnson, and once again they won the game. Since Matt Painter called out everyone on his team except Robbie Hummel and E’Twaun Moore three weeks ago, the Boilermakers (led by JJJ’s additional production) have reeled off six straight wins. And while those six wins included a trio of B10 dogs, they also included a home game against Wisconsin and road games at Illinois and tonight at the Breslin Center — not exactly the easiest three teams from which to come out of a slump. Robbie Hummel (15/5/5 assts) and E’Twaun Moore (25/3/6 assts) continue to hold up their end of the bargain for Purdue, but the addition of JJJ to the offensive repertoire instantly turns the Boilermakers from a top twenty team into a top five team. Now it’s Michigan State who is slumping, and as Tom Izzo put it, the Spartans haven’t “checked in three games” and the fact that Purdue shot a scorching 57% for the game in East Lansing illustrates his point. The last three games have been the three worst defensive performances for MSU all season long, and shooting in the low 30s (32% tonight) in two of those contests does not help matters. Obviously, the loss of Kalin Lucas has a lot to do with this. Even though Lucas played tonight (12 pts in 29 minutes), it was clear that he was still gimpy out there, and as the point man in Izzo’s tough-nosed M2M defense, his presence at full strength is a factor that cannot be measured just in numbers. Still, after holding what seemed to be a commanding three-game lead in the Big Ten standings a mere week ago, the Spartans with this loss are now tied with Illinois at 9-3 and only a half-game ahead of Purdue and Ohio State (both 8-3), setting up a fun final three-plus weeks of the regular season for the conference crown.
Vandy Dominated the Vols Tonight (Jae S. Lee)
#24 Vanderbilt 90, #12 Tennessee 71. Mismatch. Vandy stormed out of the gates to a lead of 19-4 en route to a seventeen-point halftime lead, soon to be outdone by a twenty-seven point difference in the mid-second half. Jimmy Dykes said it early and often, but Vandy was simply the more poised team tonight. They were quicker to move their feet, hungrier for loose balls, and generally played like the Vols were trying to steal something out of their pockets. Vandy’s Jeffery Taylor exploded for a career-high 26/7/3 assts (including a perfect 12-12 from the line), and Jermaine Beal added 20/4 stls. It’s probably coincidental that tonight’s game represented the most depth Bruce Pearl has had at his disposal since the New Year’s incident and yet the Vols played their worst game, but it’s worth noting that the same edge with which UT beat #1 Kansas and six SEC teams was sorely lacking tonight. Tennessee leading scorer Scotty Hopson has a tendency to let his offensive game impact his entire performance, and that was once again the case tonight as his 4-14 shooting seemed to make him invisible everywhere else. Vanderbilt moves to 7-2 in the SEC East, while Tennessee fell to 6-3, but it is the guys in orange who have the unenviable trip to Lexington on Saturday for Gameday against the second-ranked Wildcats. For UT to have any chance whatsoever, Bruce Pearl will have to tap into that ‘behind-the-eight-ball’ reserve he found when #1 Kansas visited Knoxville five weeks ago.
Blowout Weekend. On paper, it looked to be a dog of a weekend, and for the most part it turned out that way. Among nearly 150 games, you’re bound to find some good ones, but among the Top 25 there were twelve games where the favorite won by 10+ points and of the six “upsets” involving ranked teams, even three of those were blowouts the other direction. Maybe everyone knew that the sports world’s focus would be on the Super Bowl, so they figured they’d save some drama for the rest of the month. Whatever the case, we’re expecting some much better games this week during ESPN’s self-described Rivalry Week.
Game of the Weekend. Illinois 78, #5 Michigan State 73. For the second consecutive weekend, ESPN got lucky in that the best marquee matchup of teams happened to coincide with their Gameday game. In a wild Orange Krush environment in Champaign on Saturday night, it was Demetri McCamey who brought the noise with a 22/11 assts night that included six threes, every one of which seemed to be of the timely variety. Perhaps his biggest of the night was with less than a minute to go, a shot that effectively put the game away from the Illini. MSU got a huge night from Draymond Green (17/16), but it seemed as if the Spartans lacked a little of their usual poise with their star point guard acting as an assistant due to his ankle injury (18 turnovers, six from his replacement, Korie Lucious). It didn’t seem to bother the Illinois students who RTC’d afterward in a questionable display for a program of that caliber. The win puts Illinois in a virtual tie with Wisconsin, Purdue and Ohio State just one game back in the loss column behind MSU, but we’re not sold on the long-term viability of that team as much as the others. Still, they were the better team on this night, largely due to McCamey’s heroics, and we’re thankful that the Big Ten race has now gotten a lot more interesting.
Orange Krush Fail (AP/Heather Coit)
Notable Upsets This Weekend. The theme here? Home teams.
Oklahoma 80, #10 Texas 71. It was Wayman Tisdale Day at Oklahoma, and the Sooners used the inspiration from the sweet-shooting big man and musician to jump out on the reeling Longhorns behind 20/10 from Cade Davis and 24/5 from Tommy Mason-Griffin. The Horns once again looked indecisive and like a team without on offensive identity in this one, and it didn’t help that they were a putrid 10-27 from the foul line. Can Texas find their mojo in time for a visit from #1 Kansas on Monday night?
UNLV 88, #12 BYU 74. This was a good old-fashioned asskicking, as UNLV jumped out to a 47-18 first-half lead and never looked back. Tre’Von Willis had a career-high 33 points as his team hit their first nine three-point attempts and effectively walloped the Cougars from their perch atop the conference. BYU star Jimmer Fredette had 21 points, but he worked for it on 4-15 shooting. The MWC might have three teams that are NCAA-worthy this year if you include New Mexico in that mix.
Richmond 71, #17 Temple 54. It was Richmond that appeared to have one of the nation’s top defenses (and offenses!) on this night as the Spiders moved into a four-way tie in the loss column by torching Temple. The Spiders shot 58% from the field and held Temple to just 32% behind Kevin Anderson’s 29/5/3 assts on 11-17 shooting. With the Pac-10 looking like a one-bid league, could the A10 be a four-team league this year including some combination of UR, Temple, Rhode Island, Xavier, Dayton and Charlotte?
The Michigan State blog that’s not a Michigan State blog, Sparty & Friends, reminds us that a mere ten years ago, a certain talented MSU point guard also went down with an ankle injury that forced his team to grow up without him. Mateen Cleaves missed twelve games for the 1999-2000 Spartans, and when he came back, MSU won its second national title. Kalin Lucas is more of a scorer while Cleaves was more of a distributor, but the comparison is interesting. One necessary distinction, though, is that Lucas likely will not be out very long (1-3 games).
WVU’s president Jim Clements said that he was “appalled and embarrassed” by the fans’ behavior in their game against Pitt on Wednesday night, which included someone throwing a coin that hit a Pitt assistant coach just under his eye. He promised better security, but there are limits to what can be policed in these situations. Honestly, despite what Gary Parrish wrote yesterday, we’re not convinced that college basketball is on the brink of a major incident between athletes and fans any more than we were ten or twenty years ago. We have trouble believing that the student section fervor is any worse, and it may actually be better. People have always thrown things, and fans have always been obnoxious.
Arizona reportedly will self-impose sanctions as a result of a violation during Lute Olson’s tenure in the summer of 2008. The violation involved a letter on Olson’s letterhead sent to boosters asking for donations for an AAU basketball tournament called the Arizona Cactus Classic. The proposed sanctions will not include a postseason ban, but it will include the loss of a scholarship and less recruiting trips.
Luke Winn’sPower Rankings this week find K-State moving into the top five despite the loss at home to Kansas last weekend, but he missed one thing in his lead about the horrific still photos. While the two he chose were obviously very scary, they weren’t nearly as horrific as this one. And we say that completely wishing it weren’t true.
Dan Levy at The Sporting Blog lays out his guidelines for when it is appropriate for fans to taunt their opponent in light of the unconscionable decision by the Colorado student body to use the “overrated” chant in a game they were clearly going to lose (see below). Come to think of it, can we just retire the “overrated” chant altogether? When you’re winning the game, you’re marginalizing your team’s big win by using that chant; and when you’re losing, well, you shouldn’t be chanting anything at all when you’re losing.
You probably already knew that Michigan State star Kalin Lucas sprained his ankle in the game against Wisconsin on Tuesday evening, but yesterday MSU officials confirmed the important news that there was no broken bone in his foot. As of now, he’s listed as day to day but he’ll be re-evaluated after treatment today to determine if he might be back for Saturday’s game against Illinois.
Minnesota forward Royce White has officially retired from basketball as he formally withdrew from the Minnesota program on Wednesday. You’ll certainly recall White’s bizarre YouTube announcement that he was quitting basketball in mid-December, and it was clear that not all was right with the budding impresario. A tough week gets tougher for Tubby smith, who lost Al Nolen to academic problems on Tuesday.
This is an internal link, but we want to make sure everyone sees it who comes here. Have you wondered who some of the teams are that would be invited to the NCAA Tournament if they stupidly expand it to 96 teams? Check out our analysis for the answer to that. If you’re not as appalled as we are that the likes of Alabama and Boston College would be part of the field, then you’re a better person than us.
Impressive. The February 27 Gameday matchup between #2 Syracuse and #3 Villanovahas already sold out the Carrier Dome (34,616), and it will set a new record (breaking SU’s own 2006 makr) for the largest crowd to ever see a college basketball game in an on-campus arena.
Mike DeCourcy thinks that the three most likely teams to run the conference table will be the MEAC’s Morgan State, the Horizon’s Butler, and the MAAC’s Siena. Cornell in the Ivy is another obvious choice, but they do have to visit Harvard, and of course #1 Kansas has a tough road game coming up at Texas on Monday night.
Tuesday Night Hoops. Tonight’s games weren’t all that compelling from the perspective of must-see TV, but we learned a few things. Such as… don’t ever underestimate a Bo Ryan-coached team (that rings a bell…), John Wall is happy as a clam, and Wes Johnson should save the flips for the Winter X Games coverage.
Bo Ryan Can Coach a Little Bit. #16 Wisconsin 67, #5 Michigan State 49. Could there be a better blueprint for the basketball philosophy of Bo Ryan and the Wisconsin Badgers than this game? Clock control, care of the basketball, good shot selection, and tough defense. The Badgers didn’t come with any secret weapons or snazzy new game plans, here. Just the same recipe for success they’ve employed for years, now. In fact, they’re still without Jon Leuer and had to play without Trevon Hughes for a big chunk of the first half because of some early foul trouble. Jason Bohannon (19/4/2) and Jordan Taylor (17/4/4) amped up their games to fill the void, both playing all 40 minutes, and accounting for half of their team’s field goals. The most impressive number you can take from this one is found in the turnovers column; Wisconsin is the BEST in the nation when it comes to taking care of the basketball, averaging only 9.4 turnovers/game coming into this one. The Badgers gave it up only five times on Tuesday night (they’re down to 8.4 a game) while forcing MSU into 13 of their own. Kalin Lucas going down with a pretty ugly sprained ankle in the second half didn’t help on that front, either; more details on that injury after imaging is done on Wednesday. The win moved Wisconsin to within two games of the Spartans in the Big Ten, and both squads have four home and four away games remaining. For additional information, RTC Live was at the game tonight.
Wisconsin Punished MSU Tonight in Madison (Steve Apps)
Scary Situation Involving Wesley Johnson.#4 Syracuse 85, Providence 68. Coming into the game most fans viewed this as seemingly inconsequential, but the most important moment of the college basketball season may have happened with 11:56 left in the first half in Syracuse this season when uber-transfer Wesley Johnson went up to throw down an alley-oop, but got flipped by Brian McKenzie who was underneath his flight path. For a second everyone watching both in the Carrier Dome and on television had flashbacks to Travis Roy. Fortunately for Johnson, Jim Boeheim, and college basketball fans everywhere Johnson was able to get that extra half of rotation and land on his back rather than his head. He talks about it here. [Ed. Note: This is why we stay on the floor. Or is it our single-digit vertical?] After a rough stretch that saw the Orange struggle to take a 3-point lead into half, Syracuse rebounded behind a strong effort from Kris Joseph (career-high 23 points) and Arinze Onuaku (season-high 20 points) to lead the Orange to their best start (22-1) in school history.
The Obama Curse. South Carolina 68, #1 Kentucky 62. First the Chicago 2016 Olympic bid, next Martha Coakley’s Senate race, now Kentucky’s short-lived reign at #1. Just hours after President Obama had telephoned the Wildcat team to congratulate them on reaching the top ranking and raising over a million bucks in their Hoops for Haiti telethon, UK got lit up by South Carolina’s Devan Downey in Columbia to give the Gamecocks their first-ever win over a #1-ranked team. Much like the president over the course of the last year, John Calipari and his team tonight learned the hard way that it’s considerably tougher playing the game with a giant blue target on your back. Now, about this Downey kid. Last weekend he was spectacular in a shoulda-been-win at Florida. His one-on-five dribble drive to get through the entire Gator defense and make a running bank shot to give his team the lead was legendary. Tonight he had three of those. Or at least it seemed like he did. What we do know for a fact was that there was nobody on the Kentucky defense who could stay in front of the guy (can anyone in America?), as he sliced, diced, and spiced his way through Wildcat defenders for 30/5/3 assts like Heidi Montag’s plastic surgeon with a scalpel in his hand. He didn’t shoot well (9-29 FG), especially in the first half, but when it counted, it was Downey who appeared to be the best player on the floor (real estate shared tonight by at least three lottery picks). UK’s superstar guard John Wall did his best to bring the Cats back late in the game, as Downey and he went mano a mano, but his 19/4 was too little, too late, and the result is that there will be another new #1 team next week. So what can we take from this loss by Kentucky? Well, we wrote last week that there was a large disconnect between Kentucky as top team in the human polls and Kentucky as a top 10-15 team in the computer numbers. But the two areas that concerned us — three-point defense and forcing turnovers — weren’t the root cause of tonight’s loss. The defense was good enough (.941 PPP holding SC to 34% from the field and 25% from three), but it was the Cats’ second-worst offensive performance of the year that made this happen. The stat ESPN kept quoting was that Kentucky’s freshmen were scoring all of the second-half points, but what it really should have said is that DeMarcus Cousins (a dominant 27/12/3 blks) and John Wall were putting in the work. Fellow freshman Eric Bledsoe (4/5 assts) is a helluva player in his own right, and he had the only other two second-half points, while UK’s junior all-american, Patrick Patterson, was completely forgotten the entire game (five points on four shots). When Calipari’s offense is clicking, Kentucky puts four or more players into double-figures; tonight it was only two. If Kentucky has aspirations to reach the top spot again this season (and we think they do), the key to making that happen will be impressing upon the youngsters to get more touches to one of the most versatile and efficient players in America, Patterson. When all three of he, Wall and Cousins are clicking, few teams have the ability to match that kind of firepower. Final note: beautiful, well-executed RTC by the Gamecock students — security can put up all the yellow tape they want, but RTCs on nights like tonight can’t be suppressed (start at the 1:20 mark).
Call 1-866-rtc-wins For Our Tip Hotline. And there are no unbeatens left. Just a quick aside, but three weeks ago we posted an article examining when we thought were the most likely games the four remaining unbeatens would lose. 3-1 ain’t bad. The lone miss we had was Kansas’ stumble at Tennessee a couple of weekends ago, and we’re ok with that.
Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist plus author of the weekly Ten Tuesday Scribbles and Bubble Watch columns.
With college football crowning another faux-national champion Thursday night in Pasadena, the college sports scene can officially shift its axis to basketball. While a number of college basketball diehards such as yours truly were knee-deep in mid-major box scores and enthralling non-conference tournaments since the season tipped off in mid-November, it’s perfectly understandable for our college football-fan brethren out there to have been entranced in the gridiron scene during this time. For many folks out there, college basketball truly begins when a football champion is crowned and conference play heats up, when Rece and the gang show up on our TVs every Saturday morning at 11 AM and the bubble begins to take its early shape. For those people, you sure missed plenty of exciting hoops action. To get you caught up in what has gone down thus far on the hardwood, here’s a summary for your enjoyment, divvied up into the six major conferences and all the rest:
ACC
What we’ve learned: There was much back-and-forth debate entering this season whether Duke or North Carolina represented the class of this conference. After two solid months of play, it’s fairly evident Duke has separated themselves from their bitter rival as the class of the ACC. While the Tar Heels may top Duke skill-wise up front, Carolina simply does not boast the backcourt to even contend with the Dukies’ tandem of Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith. The primary knock on Duke heading into this season was point guard play with Elliot Williams transferring to Memphis. As a true sharp-shooting 2-guard who creates his shots coming off screens in Redick-like fashion, could Scheyer handle the responsibility of running the Duke offense? The answer has been resounding in the affirmative: 19.7 PPG, 46% FG, 92% FT, 43% 3pt and an otherworldly 4.8 A/TO ratio that currently leads the nation. Another key to Duke’s early season success has been Coach K’s willingness to adjust his defense to fit his roster. Rather than employing the normal Duke on-ball pressure attack, Krzyzewski is utilizing more of a sagging defense that plays into the frontcourt depth Duke enjoys with six players that receive time at 6’8 or taller.
Scheyer Has His Devils Looking Great This Season
What’s still to be determined: After Duke and Carolina (and let’s not go overboard following the Heels loss to Charleston, they’re still clearly the second best team in this conference), who will emerge as the third contender behind the top two dogs? An ever-shifting proposition, the current edge probably goes to Florida State despite their utter lack of point guard play. The Seminoles are one of the tallest teams in the nation and have a few capable long-range shooters that get open looks when defenses collapse on Solomon Alabi and Chris Singleton. Plus, they’re off to a head start with a December win at ACC foe Georgia Tech. Plenty of folks think Clemson could be that team behind powerful big man Trevor Booker, but they lack a second scoring option and I can’t stop thinking back to their collapse at home to an inexperienced Illinois squad. It would be unwise to count out Gary Williams, and the jury’s still out on Virginia Tech and Miami due to their soft schedules, so I’ll give the current edge to Wake Forest as that third team. The road win at Gonzaga’s on-campus arena stands out, Ish Smith has turned into a fine point guard and Al-Farouq Aminu has as much pure talent as anyone in this conference.
NCAA Locks: Duke, North Carolina.
Likely bids: Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest.
Bubble teams: Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech.
Make other plans for March: Boston College, North Carolina State, Virginia.
Big East
What we’ve learned: The NCAA picture is shaping up quite similarly to last season when Louisville (regular season champion), Pittsburgh and Connecticut all received #1 seeds. There will be much back-and-forth debate about whether the top three teams this season — Syracuse, West Virginia and Villanova -- holds the edge in this conference, but does it really matter? Right now you’d be hard-pressed to find someone who doesn’t think Kansas, Texas, Kentucky and Purdue are the likely #1 seeds (of course plenty could change, we have two months of games left), while those top contenders in the Big East are likely all on the second seed line. Even of greater importance though is the obvious revelation that Jamie Dixon can coach basketball. You wouldn’t be alone if you counted out Pittsburgh following a near-loss to Wofford, a 47-point output at home vs. New Hampshire and a second half butt-kicking at the hands of Indiana, but those losses came without their most athletic player, Gilbert Brown, and their best defender, Jermaine Dixon. Those two have returned to action with the most improved Big East player Ashton Gibbs (who recently broke the all-time Pitt record for consecutive free throws made) as a fearsome trio that has carried the Panthers to road wins over previously-undefeated Syracuse and fringe-top 25 Cincinnati. If Dixon is able to coax his Panthers into a NCAA Tournament team after losing such enormous production and leadership in Sam Young, DeJuan Blair and Levance Fields, there is little debate on his merits as National Coach of the Year.
Cal’s hustle and glue guy Jorge Gutierrezwill be out of both Bear games this week (vs. UCLA and USC) with a sprained right knee that he suffered in a game against Stanford over the weekend. Along the same lines, UCLA’s Jerime Anderson will be benched in the Cal game for missing a rehab session, meaning that Tyler Honeycutt will get the first start of his career.
Former Wolverine and current Domino’s Pizza CEO David Brandon will take over as the new Michigan AD. We know there’s a joke here somewhere.
The first Korean to ever earn a D1 basketball scholarship, Maryland’s Jin Soo Choi, is returning to his home country to pursue basketball opportunities there.
New Year’s Football? Coulda fooled us, as there were nearly 200 basketball games over the last four days in every corner of America. And here’s the rub — a couple dozen of those games held more value than all those meaningless bowls over the same time period. The bowls are fun for the players and the fans of the teams involved (another reason to tailgate), but they have absolutely no (as in zero; as in 0.00%) bearing on the national title picture in football. At least games like West Virginia @ Purdue and Louisville @ Kentucky and William & Mary @ Hofstra have implications toward invitation and seeding in the NCAA Tournament in March. These games matter. The bowls (save Thursday night) do not. Let’s see what some of the highlights of the long weekend were.
Unbeaten No More. Two of the remaining six undefeated teams lost over the weekend — one expected, one unexpected. On Friday afternoon, a New Year’s Day tilt between the #4 (Purdue) and #6 (West Virginia) teams in America resulted in the Boilermakers running away with the game 77-62. JaJuan Johnson was awesome on the interior (25/10), completely outplaying the WVU big men Da’Sean Butler (17/7) and Devin Ebanks (11/6) and showing that when he, Robbie Hummel (18/2) and E’Twaun Moore (15/3 assts) are clicking, the Boilermakers can play with anybody in America. Oddly, WVU shot the ball ok enough to win, and was absolutely scorching from deep (9-12 3FG), but it was the 17 turnovers that did them in. Time and time again a poor possession on the WVU end (in large part because of their lack of a true PG) led to Purdue points on the other end. This game was arguably the ‘biggest’ game of the preconference schedule, and Purdue made a real statement as to its legitimacy in this one.
The unexpected loss was #5 Syracuse, who has looked so fantastic this season, dropping a game to rebuilding Pittsburgh on Saturday. There were quite a few people in the preseason who were writing off Pitt after what was admittedly huge personnel losses from last season, but those people obviously don’t know or care to know that Jamie Dixon is a phenomenal coach (same as Bo Ryan at Wisconsin). He always figures out how to win with the team he’s got. His guards attacked the Syracuse zone to the tune of ten threes while holding their own on the boards and forcing Syracuse to miss most of theirs (1-13 from deep). A 55-point second half behind Ashton Gibbs’ 24 /8 and Jermaine Dixon’s 21/5/4 assts/5 stls for the game gave Pitt its defining win for the season, and it was clear throughout the second twenty minutes that the Panthers were the more aggressive team. Syracuse’s Wes Johnson (19/6) didn’t have his usual double-double, but the Cuse players are going to have to remember that Big East foes know how to play against their zone and will need to adjust accordingly.
There are four unbeatens remaining. You may have heard of them. #1 Kansas, #2 Texas, #3 Kentucky, #4 Purdue.
Bluegrass Bloody Brawl. #3 Kentucky 71, Louisville 62. This was an ugly, ugly game, and the tone was set from the first eight seconds when it was clear that one of Rick Pitino’s primary strategies was going to be to rough up the young Wildcats in an attempt to get in their heads. It worked with Louisville’s first target, Eric Bledsoe, as he was sent to the bench almost immediately, but it never fazed DeMarcus Cousins (18/18/3 assts) or John Wall (17/4), who were subject to repeated hacks and hard fouls throughout. This game was a turnover-filled foulfest that included five techs, but when Louisville came back to take a one-point lead at 42-41, it was Wall (who later said he’s not even close to fulfilling his potential) who once again took over the game and made several key plays to give the Wildcats breathing room. This put UK at 15-0 and at its best start in forty years, making the Wildcat faithful apoplectic over the possibility of what lies ahead. UK will most certainly lose a game or several in the SEC, but what’s even more amazing to us is that John Calipari is now 86-6 over the last two-plus seasons. Those are John Wooden/Coach K in their prime type of numbers (before you get all crazy, we’re not saying Calipari is as good as those guys… yet).
The last time Northwestern (10-2) and Michigan State (10-3) met the Wildcats pulled out a stunning 70-63 victory on the road. Of course the two leading scorers in that dramatic upset were Kevin Coble and Craig Moore, neither of whom will be on the court this afternoon. Instead the Wildcats are led by point guard Michael Thompson – one of the most underrated players in the Big Ten, forward John Shurna and freshman Drew Crawford. #11 Michigan State was supposed to be the class of the Big Ten this season, but the Spartans have struggled a bit early in the season against good competition. They come into the game 10-3 on the season and are led by all-everything point guard Kalin Lucas – who has earned the ire of his coach Tom Izzo – along with two excellent forwards in Raymar Morgan and Draymond Green. #25 Northwestern lost its Big Ten opener in a thrilling game against Illinois, so the Wildcats need to bounce back against a Michigan State team that is making their conference debut. It should be an excellent game, and we hope to see you drop by.
Illinois guard Alex Legion will leave his second team in three years as he has plans to transfer from Illinois during the semester break. The former Parade All-American clearly exhibits a disconnect between his actual talent level and his production, as the 6′5 junior guard with a career 32% shooting percentage and 3.8 PPG average just hasn’t been able to find a comfortable home in his college career. Mike DeCourcy points out that Legion’s second go-round on transferring mid-season has cost him up to as many as fifty games over the life of his career.
Kalin Lucas: suspended by Tom Izzo. No legal or school issues involved, but it’s clear that Izzo is trying to send a message to his team’s captain (and his team) that they’re not performing up to expectations.
Iowa’s Anthony Tucker has pleaded guilty to public intoxication. He’ll pay a little less than $200 in fines and is working toward reinstatement on his team given the requirements of the university’s student-athlete substance-abuse policy.
Here’s Luke Winn’s early warning signs column on which teams are likely overrated and underrated via the nonconference schedule. It’s a great article and very enlightening, but the point about Kentucky is apparent — the young UK players aren’t taking lesser teams as seriously as they should (until last night, gulp). That could be very different by February, however.
It’s a travel day around here, which we’re sure is also true for many of you out there in Hoopsland. Apologies if things get a little quiet after tonight, as there is only one game over the next three days (Saturday’s West Virginia at Seton Hall tilt). Have a safe, happy and tremendous Christmas celebrating however your family chooses to do so (or not at all), and remember to give that little extra, whether time, attention, or cashmoney, to those in need this weekend. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays everyone!
Georgetown’s Nikita Mescheriakovwill transfer at the end of the semester, according to school officials, marking the fifth such transfer from the Hoya program in the last three seasons. Mescheriakov wasn’t getting much playing time as JT3 continues to utilize a very short bench this year, but we wonder if his style of coaching isn’t grating on some of these players who are leaving?
Rick Pitino has suspended forward Terrence Jennings for Wednesday night’s game against Louisiana-Lafayette for an undisclosed violation of team rules. Recall that in October Jennings and teammate Jerry Smith were involved in an altercation with police outside of a party in nearby Jeffersonville, Indiana. Speaking of Coach P, Karen Sypher pleaded not guilty yesterday to (new) charges of retaliation against a witness.
This is fairly interesting. SI.com rated the top 25 “franchises” in both professional and college sports for the 2000s. Their top CBB “franchises?” #10 – North Carolina, #13 Kansas, #17 Michigan State, #20 Florida, #22 Duke. Interesting how that matches up with our very own Team of the 2000s we set forth last summer — same top five, slightly different order.
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2010 Tourney Preview, bracket prep | Tagged: arinze onuaku, arkansas-pine bluff, aubrey coleman, california, chris singleton, derrick favors, duke, elias harris, florida st, gani lawal, georgia tech, gonzaga, greivis vasquez, houston, jamal boykin, james anderson, james nunnally, jason williams, jerome randle, jj redick, jon scheyer, jordan williams, keiton page, kelvin lewis, kyle singler, landon milbourne, louisville, marqus blakely, maryland, matt bouldin, maurice joseph, michigan st, mike lonergan, ncaa tournament, new mexico st, nolan smith, ohio st, oklahoma st, orlando johnson, patrick christopher, rick pitino, samardo samuels, shelden williams, solomon alabi, syracuse, theo robertson, tom izzo, uc-santa barbara, vermont, wesley johnson | 
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