Overnight 5: February 21, 2023

Posted by Matthew Eisenberg on February 21st, 2023

What a strange CBB media cycle today was, but luckily there were games to play tonight. Let’s do an #overnight5 (@matteisecontributing)…


1. Since starting BE play 0-3 last yr, @MarquetteMBB has gone 25-8 since – incl. conf-leading 14-3 this yr. Despite being chosen 9th of 11 in preseason BE poll, Shaka has Eagles in line for 1st BE title since ’13 w/ DePaul, Butler & St. John’s remaining.

2. It was again tale of 2 halves for Baylor at K-State tonight, as Bears were outscored 44-31 2H in 10-pt loss. 20 of K-State’s 28 FGs came on layups/dunks, again calling into question Baylor’s interior D. BU now w/ worst def-eff in B12 play of any team last 4 seasons.

3. Tennessee lost 4th straight road game & for 5th time in last 7 outings as Texas A&M improved to 13-2 SEC. After -21 FT deficit vs. UK, the Vols were -20 vs @aggiembk. No longer asking will TAMU dance this March, but rather, can Aggies win the SEC?


4. After averaging 83 PPG through Jan, Xavier held under 70 for 3x in last 4 games in 64-63 L vs. Nova. Cats controlled tempo & frustrated XU, leading to 19-2 pts off TO. Xavier’s Souley Boum has 7 ast/14 TO in 3 recent Ls after having 4.3:1 ATO in Jan.

5. Coming off OT W vs. Okla, Texas hammered Iowa St. 72-54 to stay even w/ KU in B12 race. Cyclones have lost 4 of last 5 games & 7 in a row on road. Gabe Kalscheur’s 3FG struggles continue going 3-11 (25% last 7 games). Before closing vs. KU, Texas is @ Baylor & TCU.

EXTRA: Miami stayed 1 game behind UVA in ACC standings w/ road W at VT; Mich St held home serve vs. IU in battle of B1G middle (7 teams have 7 Ls in conf play); Mizzou (11th preseason SEC) notched 20th W vs. Miss St.; TxTech conts. strange late-season surge w/ W at Oklahoma.

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Overnight 5: Weekend Edition, February 19, 2023

Posted by Matthew Eisenberg on February 19th, 2023

It’s only 1 week until the start of #championshipfortnight, 2 weeks until #championshipweek & 3 weeks until #selectionsunday. Let’s do a #weekend10 (@matteise contributing)…


1. On Sat the selection committee gave us their bracket preview. Despite 3 recent Ls, Purdue is still a #1 seed; B12 has 5 teams in top 4 seed lines; & Mick Cronin is agitated. That fall of Gonzaga? Zags sit at #15 overall.

2. Trailing 45-32 at half, KU outscored Baylor 55-26 to grab key B12 win. Baylor’s superb trio outdone by deeper KU team w/ Dajuan Harris leading charge. KU’s versatile scoring, Bill Self’s coaching & BU’s def woes all apparent during Bears’ meltdown.

3. Kentucky posts strong 2-0 week after beating Tennessee 66-54. Vols’ offense was again putrid, finishing 37% FG, 22% 3FG & 4-14 FT, again calling into question how far UT can ride? OTOH, can @KentuckyMBB finish strong & avoid NCAAT trip to Dayton?

4. Trayce Jackson-Davis had 26 pts, 12 reb, 5 blks & 3 stls in 71-68 @IndianaMBB W vs. Illini. TJD now avg’ing more than 20 pts, 10 reb, 3 asts & 3 blocks per game, something last done by Tim Duncan in ’97. Could 2/25 game @ Purdue have NPOY implications?

5. Nick Smith returned to Arkansas’ starting lineup & played 30+ min in 84-65 W @ Florida. In his 3rd game back, Smith finished w/ 10 pts, one of 5 Razorbacks in dbl-figures. If Smith can stay on the floor, will Muss Bus pick up steam heading into March?


6. After losing prev 4 games in which they posted 65 PPG, TCU beat Okla St 100-75 in Mike Miles’ 1st game back. @TCUBasketball shot 68% FG, owning a 50-20 paint pt edge. Frogs added 8-15 from 3 for complete performance. A healthy TCU is a dangerous TCU.

7. After 10-10 start this yr, @TexasTechMBB is 5-2 in last 7 following W @ WVU. Tech overcame 8-pt deficit w/ 8:27 to go, w Fardaws Aimaq controlling final 5 mins on way to his 1st dbl-dbl of season. How much will respect of B12 strength benefit RRs come Selection Sunday?

8. UNC falls to 1-5 in last 6 games w/ 77-69 loss at @PackMensBball. Heels were unproductive on both ends, w/ Bacot, Davis & Love going 14-43 & allowing NC St to shoot 65% 2H. Now 0-9 vs. Q1 opps, Heels have a stellar NIT resume.

9. Houston beat Memphis 72-64 to likely ascend to #1 in polls on Monday. Memphis’ turnover proneness reared its head to the tune of 18 miscues leading to 22 @UHCougarMBK points. Can Memphis get Kendric Davis back from injury in timely manner? Tigers host Coogs on 3/5.

10. Clemson’s 10-1 ACC start is a distant memory now at 11-5 following ugly L @ Louisville. While Tigers were +20 in paint, going 4-24 from 3 & a -15 FT difference were too much to overcome. This resume-cratering L + recent L @ BC make for a steep uphill climb for Tigers.

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Overnight 5: February 16, 2023

Posted by Matthew Eisenberg on February 16th, 2023

What Thursday lacked in intrigue it made up for with a full-coverage RTC in College Park. Let’s examine in an #overnight5 (@matteise contributing)…


1. A 29-4 Maryland run had Xfinity Center rocking like old days on way to beating #3 Purdue, 68-54. Beyond Edey & BrSmith, rest of Boilers limited to 18 pts on 27% FG. After losing 3 of 4, will returning home get Purdue back on #1 seed track?

2. Arizona responded from Stanford L by blitzing Utah in Tucson, 88-62. While Utes made Tubelis work for his 11 pts (5-14 FG), Kerr Kriisa & Pelle Larsson combined for 28 pts – stark contrast from their 6 pt egg (1-14 FG) in SLC L. Cats still 2 games behind UCLA in Pac standings.

3. Florida Atlantic suffered 2nd C-USA Feb road L w/ 74-70 defeat @ MTSU. FAU nearly overcame 14-pt deficit in final 7 mins but were unable to get late stops. FAU began day w/ top 20 NET & SOR, but L shrinks their NCAA Tourney margin of error.

4. Despite 24 TOs & near 6-min scoring drought late in 2H, Memphis got past UCF, 64-63. With W, @Memphis_MBB has now won 8 of its last 9 as they cling to #11 seed @bracketproject. W/ 2 of final 5 games vs. Houston, Memphis cannot afford Ls elsewhere.

5. Picked 8th in A-Sun preseason, Kennesaw St moved into 1st following 88-81 W vs. Liberty. Trailing 70-59, @KSUOWLSMBB made 9 of final 11 shots to recover. From going 1-28 in 2020, Amir Abdur-Rahim now has Owls positioned for March run through Kennesaw.

EXTRA: Gonzaga avenged home L to LMU by dropping 68 1H on way to 43-pt win; UCLA traded runs back/forth w/ Stanford before finally pulling away late; Iowa avenged earlier 16-pt L at Ohio State with 17-pt W at home.

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Eight Questions for the Final Four

Posted by Matthew Eisenberg on April 2nd, 2021

Sixty-three NCAA Tournament games down, three more to go. After regional final games playing on Monday and Tuesday of this week, the Final Four teams are looking at a slightly shorter turnaround than usual heading into this weekend. Here are four questions for each game set to take place on Saturday in Indianapolis.

#1 Baylor vs. #2 Houston

1) Will Jared Butler break out of his tournament slump? Jared Butler was a first team AP All-American who averaged 17.1 points per game, shot 48.8 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from three-point range prior to the start of the NCAA Tournament. In the tournament, Butler has yet to find his stroke, as he is shooting just 34.6 percent from the field and 25 percent from beyond the arc. As a result, his scoring average has dipped to just 13 points per game in the tournament.

2) Will Baylor’s defense continue to create easy points off of forced turnovers? In the NCAA Tournament, Baylor has forced 14 or more turnovers in each game, leading to a turnover differential of +40 over four games. Offensively, Houston has only coughed the ball up more than 10 times in one of its four tournament games and maintains a season-long turnover rate that ranks in the top 20 nationally. If Baylor is able to create live ball turnovers against the Cougars, they can attack early and avoid the incredibly difficult half-court defense of Houston.

3) Who will AAC Defensive Player of the Year Dejon Jarreau be matched up against? Jarreau was locked onto Oregon State’s leading scorer Ethan Thompson for much of the Elite Eight win, holding the Beaver to 11 points on 3-of-12 shooting. Kelvin Sampson will have to decide between putting Jarreau on the struggling All-American Jared Butler or on Davion Mitchell with the hope of slowing him down.

4) Will Houston’s offensive rebounding prowess be a difference maker in this game? Houston has grabbed 62 offensive rebounds in its four tournament games, which has led to 51 second chance points. According to KenPom‘s database, Houston’s offensive rebounding rate of 39.8 percent ranks third among all teams since the start of the 2017-18 season. Baylor is coming off of a game in which it saw Arkansas grab 11 offensive rebounds. This is a match-up that will require Baylor’s guards to help clean up the glass.

#1 Gonzaga vs. #11 UCLA

1) Can UCLA find a way to slow the tempo to limit the number of Gonzaga possessions? In terms of pace, these two teams are polar opposites of one another. While Gonzaga is looking to run with every chance it gets, UCLA looks to milk the clock and attempt to find an offensive mismatch every possession. Unfortunately for UCLA, Gonzaga’s match-up with Virginia earlier in the year and the annual meetings with Saint Mary’s should have the Bulldogs more than comfortable playing at any pace.

2) Will Gonzaga’s size in the backcourt be what they exploit all game in this matchup? Gonzaga’s backcourt of Jalen Suggs, Joel Ayayi and Andrew Nembhard are all listed at 6’4″ or taller. The size, length and athleticism of this trio could lead to a difficult night for 5’11” Tyger Campbell on both ends of the floor. Campbell is the cog that keeps the Bruins’ engine running, and if he is slowed or in foul trouble, the near impossible task of beating Gonzaga gets even more challenging.

3) Will either bench play a role on the scoreboard? In UCLA’s win against Michigan, the Bruins’ defense did not tally a point, whereas in the win over Alabama it scored 18. For Gonzaga, Aaron Cook and Anton Watson get minutes but neither typically produces much offensive output. Then again, with Gonzaga’s starters averaging 72.8 points per game, the bench is not asked to score much at all.

4) Is there any chance Gonzaga gets caught looking past UCLA? Perhaps one of the few ways in which Gonzaga could be beaten is if they get caught thinking about cutting down the nets on Monday night and the perfection that would come with that. On paper, Gonzaga is the biggest favorite in a Final Four match-up for a reason. Coming out with the same intensity they showed against USC could go a long way in again building an early double-digit lead. Looking past UCLA could lead to a game that at least makes a Gonzaga play hard a bit longer than expected.

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Eight Key Questions for the Sweet Sixteen

Posted by Matthew Eisenberg on March 25th, 2021

What started with 68 is now down to just 16.

While the opening two rounds of the NCAA Tournament brought the usual surprises, the Sweet Sixteen is not without familiar faces. Three #1 seeds and a pair of #2 seeds are joined by the powerful programs of Florida State and Villanova, a quartet of Pac-12 teams, a pair of mid-majors, and of course, Syracuse. Here are eight questions that could define each match-up:

Saturday’s Games

  • #8 Loyola (Chicago) vs. #12 Oregon State (2:40 PM EST, CBS), If Oregon State can limit its turnovers, do the Beavers have enough firepower to pull off an upset? After a stifling defensive performance against Illinois, Loyola (Chicago) has retaken the top spot on KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings this season. The Ramblers forced 17 turnovers against the Illini, an area of which Oregon State struggled against Oklahoma State, committing 20 turnovers. If the Beavers protect the ball, the three-point line becomes key where Oregon State has shot a robust 42 percent over its last five games.
  • #1 Baylor vs. #5 Villanova (5:15 PM EST, CBS): Will Villanova’s offense keep clicking or will the absence of Collin Gillespie be magnified against Baylor? In Villanova’s first two full games without Gillespie, the Wildcats shot just 38.3 percent from the field and 27.1 percent from beyond the arc. In the tournament, Jay Wright’s squad has found new life, however, shooting 50 percent from the field and 41.8 percent from deep. Among the players stepping up is former five-star recruit Bryan Antoine, who has scored more points in the NCAA Tournament than he had in the entire regular season.
  • #3 Arkansas vs. #15 Oral Roberts (7:25 PM EST, TBS) How much will the late December matchup between these teams factor into the March rematch? Oral Roberts led Arkansas by 12 points early in the second-half when these teams met in Fayetteville earlier this season before Arkansas took control and won by 11 points. The Razorbacks had a 32-point advantage on points in the paint and a 16-point advantage on second-chance points. While Oral Roberts did get its normal production from Kevin Obanor, Max Abmas struggled, scoring just 11 points on 4-of-11 shooting.
  • #2 Houston vs. #11 Syracuse (9:55 PM EST, TBS) Which team is better equipped to score against their opponent’s defense? Houston is one of the nation’s best defenses in efficiency totals and across all defensive shooting percentages. For Syracuse, the 2-3 Boeheim zone continues to work magic in another NCAA Tournament. For Houston, it’s an offense that at times can struggle to make baskets, but feasts on the offensive glass, an area that helped the Cougars survive Rutgers and could remain prevalent against Syracuse. For the Orange, it begins with Buddy Boeheim, who is averaging 26 points a game over six March contests.

Sunday’s Games

  • #1 Gonzaga vs. #5 Creighton (2:10 PM EST, CBS) Can Creighton replicate a BYU type of gameplan to keep this close longer than expected? In Gonzaga’s WCC Tournament finale, BYU shot 11-of-28 from deep and turned the ball over just eight times. Creighton ranks 20th in the nation in three-point makes per game (9.6) and on the season have forced 43 more turnovers than they have committed. They must get more from the trio of Damien Jefferson, Denzel Mahoney and Mitch Ballock, who are a combined 14-of-63 (22.2%) from beyond the arc over the Bluejays’ last four games.
  • #1 Michigan vs. #4 Florida State (5 PM EST, CBS) Will Florida State’s size across the court be too disruptive for Michigan? The height and length of Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson and Franz Wagner is often too much for its opponents to handle. But for Florida State, size itself should not be a concern. The Seminoles will throw length and depth at the Wolverines for 40 minutes with nine players averaging at least 10 minutes per game and five of those listed at 6’8″ or taller.
  • #2 Alabama vs. #11 UCLA (7:15 PM EST, TBS) Which team is able to control tempo and how much will that disrupt the opponent? In terms of style of play, Alabama and UCLA are polar opposites. While Alabama is looking to push and maximize the number of possessions in a game, UCLA much prefers to slow things down, run its offense and take advantage of any mismatch. If UCLA can protect the ball and get good looks offensively, its defense will be put in a position to at least have a chance to stay in the game with a red-hot Crimson Tide team.
  • #6 USC vs. # 7 Oregon (9:45 PM EST, TBS) Will USC replicate its performance against Oregon or will the Ducks continue to fly high off of its performance against Iowa? In 14 games against teams other than USC since the beginning of February, Oregon’s Eugene Omoruyi is averaging 17.3 points per game. In Oregon’s loss against USC, Omoruyi scored just nine points on 3-of-10 shooting. USC’s length allowed the Trojans to grab 15 offensive rebounds in that game to go along with 10 made threes on 21 attempts which resulted in a 14-point USC win. Andy Enfield’s team had success also holding Will Richardson to just five points, a tougher task this time around as Richardson is netting over 15 points a game in March.
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16 Questions For First Round Saturday of the NCAA Tournament

Posted by Matthew Eisenberg on March 18th, 2021

After 16 games of wall-to-wall NCAA Tournament action on Friday, another 16 games are set to tip on Saturday. Here are questions I have for each game that will be played on First Round Saturday.

  • #1 Gonzaga vs. #16 Play-In Winner of Appalachian State/Norfolk State: What will a senior Corey Kispert look like in the NCAA Tournament? In Corey Kispert’s first two seasons at Gonzaga, he averaged 6.1 points per game in 24.8 minutes across seven NCAA Tournament games. No longer a secondary option, Kispert is poised to shatter his previous averages.
  • #1 Michigan vs. #16 Play-In Winner of Mount St. Mary’s/Texas Southern: Will Michigan have any tournament jitters without Isaiah Livers? With Isaiah Livers expected to be unavailable in the NCAA Tournament, the Wolverines not only lose their second-leading scorer, but one of the few players on the team with Tournament experience. With Livers sidelined, only senior guard Eli Brooks has any significant experience playing in the NCAA Tournament.
  • #2 Iowa vs. #15 Grand Canyon: If Grand Canyon can make threes, can its size at least frustrate Luka Garza? Grand Canyon’s two leading scorers are 7’0″ Asbjorn Midtgaard and 6’10” Alessandro Lever. The Antelopes rely on efficient post scoring from the pair to counteract the 245th ranked three-point shooting offense. Grand Canyon will have size to throw at Luka Garza, but the senior All-American will present real challenges for the Antelope bigs to stay attached in pick-and-pop situations.
  • #3 Kansas vs. #14 Eastern Washington: What will be the impact of the recent COVID battles within the KU program? From being knocked out of the Big 12 Tournament with positive tests to not having Jalen Wilson available to begin the NCAA Tournament, the last week has been tricky for Kansas. It appears the Jayhawks will get David McCormack back for the opener, a big boost with potential for a match-up against Evan Mobley in the second round.
  • #3 Texas vs. #14 Abilene Christian: Can Shaka Smart avoid NCAA Tournament struggles? Since taking VCU on its improbable Final Four run in 2011, his teams have gone 2-6 since, with four consecutive first round exits in the NCAA Tournament. The Longhorns open against an Abilene Christian team which played Texas Tech tough earlier in the season, having trailed by just one-point with eight minutes to go.
  • #4 Florida State vs. #13 UNC Greensboro: After its nightmare against Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament, will the Florida State offense protect the ball? The Seminoles turned it over 24 times against Georgia Tech in the ACC championship game, including a -25 turnover margin over its final three games, and a turnover rate ranking on the season of 241st. UNC Greensboro has a pesky backcourt of Isaiah Miller and Keyshaun Langley, who, between the pair, average 3.6 steals a game.
  • #4 Virginia vs. #13 Ohio: Does Ohio have enough firepower to pull an upset? Ohio’s Jason Preston is one of only two players in the country to be averaging 15 points, six rebounds, and six assists per game this season. Alongside Preston is the pair of Ben Vander Plas and Ben Roderick, who on the year made 97 three-pointers on 38 percent shooting. As a team the Bobcats average 80.9 points per game and could present a challenge for Virginia if Ohio’s offense can continue to click here.
  • #5 Colorado vs. #12 Georgetown: Can the Hoyas keep last week’s run rolling? Georgetown entered the Big East Tournament with a record of 9-12 before rattling off four wins in four days. The recent stretch of success goes back as far as 10 games, though, with much of it coming from a Georgetown defense which held eight of those opponents to under 45 percent shooting from the floor. The Hoyas are 12-6 when they accomplish that feat, and just 1-6 when opponents manage to shoot better than that mark.
  • #5 Creighton vs. #12 UC Santa Barbara: What will Creighton’s offense look like after a pair of lackluster performances? After torching the Madison Square Garden nets against Butler, the Bluejays’ offense really struggled against both Connecticut and Georgetown. In its final two Big East Tournament games, Creighton shot just 33.1 percent from the field and 29.2 percent from deep on 48 three-point attempts.
  • #6 USC vs. #11 Play-In Winner of Drake/Wichita State: With Evan Mobley playing his best basketball, can USC make a statement to start the tournament? Evan Mobley is averaging 17.2 points and nine rebounds per game over his last five contests while continuing to protect the rim at every turn. With Drake still having uncertainty about the availability of Tank Hemphill and with Wichita State fresh off of a surprising loss to Cincinnati, the Trojans have an opportunity for a favorable path against either opponent.
  • #6 BYU vs. #11 Play-In Winner of Michigan State/UCLA: Is BYU too much of a complete team for either Michigan State or UCLA? BYU is ranked among the top 30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and while Michigan State is just outside of the top 30 on the defensive side of the ball, it has struggled offensively. For UCLA, while its offense can be potent, the Bruins’ defense has struggled to string together stops when it matters most.
  • #7 Connecticut vs. #10 Maryland: Will this be a game won and lost on the backboard? All season long, rebounding performance has been a key indicator for both teams. In UConn wins, the Huskies outrebounded opponents by 9.8 rebounds a game, and in losses, they have averaged a 0.4 rebounding deficit to opponents. Similarly for Maryland, the Terrapins have averaged a +4.1 rebounding advantage in victories, and in losses have been outmuscled by opponents to the tune of 6.6 rebounds a game.
  • #7 Oregon vs. #10 VCU: In the NCAA Tournament will it be a singular talent or the talent of the whole that wins out? VCU’s Bones Hyland leads the Rams in scoring at 19.5 points per game, as the 6’3″ sophomore guard is an efficient scorer both in transition and in the halfcourt. For Oregon, the Ducks have five players who average 10 or more points per game, led by the talented duo of Chris Duarte and Eugene Omoruyi, who each average 16.7 points per game.
  • #8 LSU vs. #9 St. Bonaventure: Is Darius Bays the most important player to this matchup? While LSU’s trio of Cam Thomas, Ja’Vonte Smart, and Trendon Watford are consistent scorers, the team’s fourth-leading scorer, Darius Davis, is anything but consistent. In wins, Davis averages 14.9 points per game and has made 46-of-93 three-point attempts. In LSU defeats, Davis averages just 4.5 points per game and has made just 2-of-28 from beyond the arc.
  • #8 Oklahoma vs. #9 Missouri: How much will this matchup look like the matchup between these teams from last season? These former Big 12 foes played in November of last season, a game in which Oklahoma won by 11. The Sooners’ offense was led by 36 combined points from Austin Reaves and Brady Manek, who together made 6-of-14 three-point attempts.

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16 Questions for First Round Friday of the NCAA Tournament

Posted by Matthew Eisenberg on March 17th, 2021

With the first round of the NCAA Tournament now just days away, here is a question I have for each of Friday’s 16 match-ups.

  • #1 Illinois vs. #16 Drexel: Can the Illini’s Trent Frazier and Adam Miller begin the Tournament by finding their three-point shot? The Illini duo of Frazier and Miller made 36.7 percent of their three-point attempts in the season’s opening 22 games. Down the stretch over the final seven games, Frazier and Miller were a combined 16-of-55 (29.1%) from beyond the arc.
  • #1 Baylor vs. #16 Hartford: Will Baylor be back to its pre-COVID pause self or will the February layoff linger? Baylor went 5-2 after returning from its COVID pause, but that included closer than expected wins against both Iowa State and Kansas State. While Baylor has the nation’s best three-point percentage offense, they take on a Hartford team that has a top 10 three-point percentage defense.
  • #2 Houston vs. #15 Cleveland State: Can Cleveland State find enough baskets to keep the game close against a Houston squad that sometimes struggles to make shots? Cleveland State played three games all season against an opponent with a top-100 defensive efficiency and 19 games against a defense that sat outside of the top 250. The Vikings draw a top-10 defense in a Houston squad that is the only team in the country to have both a top-10 two-point and three-point percentage defense.
  • #2 Ohio State vs. #15 Oral Roberts: Can Oral Roberts keep things close long enough for Max Abmas to have a chance to steal an upset? Approximately 42 percent of the field-goal attempts taken by Oral Roberts come from three-point line. They have knocked down 38.8 percent of those attempts, a percentage that sits just outside of the top ten. ORU kept non-conference games close against Arkansas, Oklahoma State and Wichita State, and with the nation’s leading scorer in Max Abmas, they are a team Ohio State will not want to deal with late in a close game.
  • #3 West Virginia vs. #14 Morehead State: Can 35 percent be the magic number for Morehead State? Morehead State is 17-3 when it holds its opponent to under 35 percent shooting from beyond the arc. The Mountaineers were 12-3 when they exceeded that percentage and just 6-6 when they failed to reach it. In West Virginia’s two losses to Oklahoma State to finish the season, the Mountaineers made just 12-of-47 (25%) from deep.
  • #3 Arkansas vs. #14 Colgate: Quite simply, how will Colgate fare outside of the Patriot League? All 15 of Colgate’s games came against Patriot League opponents, with its 12 regular-season Patriot League contests coming against just three different teams in Army, Boston University and Holy Cross.
  • #4 Purdue vs. #13 North Texas: Will Purdue and other Big Ten teams have an advantage in tournament games played at Lucas Oil Stadium? The Boilermakers are familiar with Lucas Oil Stadium, having played there last week and just an hour’s drive from West Lafayette. Could Purdue be playing in front of a crowd that makes this feel like a home game?
  • #4 Oklahoma State vs. #13 Liberty: Will the bright lights of the Big Dance bring out a different Cade Cunningham? All season long freshman sensation Cade Cunningham has proven able and willing to make the right play and get his teammates involved. As the spotlight of March grows, the Cowboys will continue to need other players to take advantage of what the freshman superstar gives them. Avery Anderson has done that lately, averaging 17.4 points per game over his last five contests.
  • #5 Tennessee vs. #12 Oregon State: Can the Beavers continue what they started at the Pac-12 Tournament? Oregon State went from down double-figures against UCLA in their Pac-12 Tournament opener to clinching an NCAA Tournament spot just three days later. One standout from their recent success has been Warith Alatishe, who averaged 14 points and 9.7 rebounds per game in the Pac-12 Tournament.
  • #5 Villanova vs. #12 Winthrop: What will be the impact of the Collin Gillespie injury here in March? Villanova dropped its final two games without the services of Gillespie, games in which the Wildcats’ offense looked stagnant for much of both games. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Jermaine Samuels combined for 46 points in the Big East Tournament loss to Georgetown, while the other three starters combined for just six points on 1-of-7 shooting.
  • #6 San Diego State vs. #11 Syracuse: Can Syracuse once again turn things on at Tournament time? The Orange have reached at minimum the Sweet 16 in each of the last two times they were seeded 10th or worse. The Syracuse defense has allowed 12 .5 more points per game on the road than they have at home.
  • #6 Texas Tech vs. #11 Utah State: Will this #6/#11 battle come down to those “stolen” opportunities? Texas Tech forces turnovers at a top-10 rate nationally, while the Aggies turn it over at a rate that ranks outside of the top 200. For Utah State, they have a chance to gain ground by dominating the glass, where they outrebound opponents by 12.7 rebounds a game in wins and just 4.1 RPG in losses.
  • #7 Florida vs. #10 Virginia Tech: Will Tre Mann continue to light up the nets? Florida’s Tre Mann is averaging 22.6 points per game over his last five games on 58 percent shooting overall and 41.7 percentfrom beyond the arc. In Mann’s first 17 games of the season, he was averaging just 14.1 points per game.
  • #7 Clemson vs. #10 Rutgers: Will free throw shooting hinder Rutgers’ ability to pick up its first NCAA Tournament win since 1983? Clemson enters this matchup shooting 76.5 percent at the charity stripe whereas Rutgers ranks 332nd at just 63.2%. While the Rutgers trio of Geo Baker, Jacob Young, and Ron Harper are competent at the line, Montez Mathis and Myles Johnson are a combined 61-of-122 there.
  • #8 North Carolina vs. #9 Wisconsin: As great as North Carolina is attacking the glass, can they really win NCAA Tournament games with all their shooting and turnovers woes? The Tar Heels are the nation’s best offensive rebounding team with a rate that is better than any team has had since the start of the 2016-17 season. The rest of the North Carolina offense leaves room for improvement, with this year’s squad having the worst effective field-goal percentage and turnover rate of any Tar Heels’ NCAA Tournament team.
  • #8 Loyola (Chicago) vs. #9 Georgia Tech: Which senior big can find success against the opponents tenacious defense? This matchup features the ACC’s Player of the Year in Moses Wright and the MVC’s Player of the Year in Cameron Krutwig. Loyola possesses the best defensive efficiency, while Georgia Tech comes in fresh off of forcing Florida State to commit 24 turnovers in the ACC title game.
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2020-21 RTC16: Week 15

Posted by Matthew Eisenberg on March 8th, 2021

With now less than a week to go until Selection Sunday, the top eight in the RTC16 has become a bit more stable. As leagues embark on their conference tournaments, strong play to protect and possibly improve seeding will be key. With Gonzaga and Baylor having secured two of the four #1 seeds, will the Big Ten grab the others or will a team like Alabama pry a top seed away?

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN: Big Ten (5), Big 12 (3), ACC (2), SEC (2), AAC (1), Big East (1), MVC (1), WCC (1),


  • Illinois: Brad Underwood’s Illini picked up a pair of Quad-1 victories by beating Michigan without Ayo Dosunmu and then following that up with a win at Ohio State. The #2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament, Illinois has now positioned itself to be a strong contender for a #1 seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament.
  • Loyola (Chicago): The Ramblers ran through the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament with three wins all by double-figures. In the MVC Tournament, Loyola made 49% percent of its three-point attempts, an important improvement for a team that ranked seventh from beyond the arc in league play.
  • Oregon: The Ducks went 3-0 this past week to win the Pac-12 title. This included a dominant final 10 minutes Wednesday night against UCLA in which Oregon turned a nine-point deficit into an eight-point victory. Chris Duarte is the type of player who can carry this talented Oregon team into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.


  • Maryland: A week ago Maryland had won five straight games and found itself in good position on the bubble. Then the Terrapins went 0-2 this past week with losses to non-tournament teams in Northwestern and Penn State. Eric Ayala had a particularly tough week, going 6-of-20 from the field.
  • Villanova: The Wildcats were hit with injuries at the worst time of the season. First it was losing Collin Gillespie for the season with a knee injury against Creighton, and then Justin Moore to what was described as a severe ankle sprain. The impact of Gillespie was clear in the loss at Providence, a game in which Villanova produced its worst offensive efficiency output of the season.
  • Wisconsin: Wisconsin has lost three straight and five of its last six games. With the game tied late against Iowa, the Badgers failed to grab a defensive rebound on a missed free throw, were called for a foul on Jordan Bohannon shooting a three-pointer, and then found itself on the wrong end of another monitor review to a play involving Brad Davison.

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Ten Questions to Consider: Making Statements to Close the Regular Season

Posted by Matthew Eisenberg on March 5th, 2021

The first weekend of March brings the final weekend of the 2020-21 regular season. Seeding, both in terms of conference and NCAA Tournament positioning, is on the line as conference foes look to make a final statement before heading into sudden death territory. With pressure mounting, here are 10 questions I have for the weekend ahead:

  1. With or without Ayo Dosunmu, can Illinois carry over its performance against Michigan to this game? (Illinois @ Ohio State, Saturday, 4 PM EST, ESPN) The Illini put together one of the most impressive performances of the season on Tuesday night with their lopsided victory at Michigan. Freshman Andre Curbelo has scored 17 points in consecutive games off of the bench and senior Trent Frazier is coming off of tying his season-high with 22 points.
  2. Can D’Mitrik Trice fare better against Iowa the second time they meet? (Wisconsin @ Iowa, Sunday, 12:37 PM EST, Fox) In Wisconsin’s loss to Iowa in mid-February, D’Mitrik Trice went 3-of-15 from the field and was held to just 11 points. Trice’s offense is needed to offset the always difficult Luka Garza and Joe Wieskamp, who made 30-of-57 three-point attempts in February.
  3. Can Texas Tech lessen Baylor’s bench advantage and steal a win on the road? (Texas Tech @ Baylor, Sunday, 4 PM EST, ESPN) While Mac McClung’s 24 points matched the combined offensive production of Davion Mitchell and Jared Butler last time out, Baylor’s bench outscored the Texas Tech bench by 21 points. Limited scoring outside of McClung, combined with 20 turnovers doomed the Red Raiders.
  4. Can the Memphis defense carry the Tigers to a statement AAC victory? (Memphis @ Houston, Sunday, Noon EST, CBS) Heading into Thursday’s action, no team has a better adjusted defensive efficiency ranking than Memphis, as the Tigers have won six straight and nine of their last 10 games. Over that stretch, five Memphis opponents have been held to their lowest offensive efficiency outputs. While there are few questions about the Tigers’ defense, their offense las far behind. They will need both sides to click to beat Houston.
  5. Can UCLA’s lack of depth in the frontcourt handle USC better the second go around? (USC @ UCLA, Saturday, 4 PM EST, CBS) The Bruins were without both Cody Riley and Jalen Hill in the first match-up with the Trojans, and while Hill remains away from the team, Riley is back. A win for either team means the #2 seed in the conference tournament, while a loss likely pushes the losing team behind Colorado for the fourth seed.
  6. Will LSU defensively be able to hold up around the rim? (LSU @ Missouri, Saturday, 3 PM EST, SEC Network) Will Wade’s LSU team allows opponents to shoot 66.5 percent on field-goal attempts near the rim, which ranks among the top-20 highest percentages in the nation. For Missouri, its offensive field-goal percentage on shots around the rim ranks among the top-50 nationally.
  7. Can Colorado State avoid a slip-up in its final MWC game of the season? (Colorado State @ Nevada, Friday, 9 PM EST, CBS Sports Network) While the Rams are currently 14-3 in the MW, they travel to Nevada where the Wolf Pack are 9-2 on the season. For Colorado State, a win would keep the Rams in position to be an at-large selection a week from now.
  8. Quite simply, can Rutgers avoid disaster? (Rutgers @ Minnesota, Saturday, Noon EST, Fox) The Scarlet Knights are coming off of a horrific loss at Nebraska and now head to Minnesota to face a Gophers squad that has lost six straight games. Rutgers trailed Minnesota by four points with 2:22 to go in the first meeting, but used a 10-2 run to close the game out.
  9. Can Tennessee’s John Fulkerson find his scoring touch? (Florida @ Tennessee, Sunday, Noon EST, ESPNU) In Tennessee’s first 15 games of the season, John Fulkerson was averaging 11.2 points per game. In the eight games since February 1, Fulkerson is averaging just 5.9 points per game, having scored more than four points twice. This is clearly a problem, as Tennessee has fallen down the rankings over the same period.
  10. How close to the bubble is Ole Miss? (Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss, Saturday, 7 PM EST, SEC Network) With a win against Vanderbilt, Ole Miss would be 15-10 and 10-8 in the SEC. As of Thursday, the Rebels have a NET Ranking of #57 and, while a Quad-3 win against Vanderbilt would not enhance the Rebels’ resume, a second defeat at the hands of Vanderbilt would be crippling. In the recent loss to the Commodores, Ole Miss was 4-of-13 from deep while Vanderbilt made 11-of-23 three-point attempts.
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2020-21 RTC16: Week 14

Posted by Matthew Eisenberg on March 1st, 2021

The lengthy run of Baylor and Gonzaga holding down the top two spots in the RTC16 has finally come to an end with Michigan jumping the Bears this week for the #2 spot. The Wolverines moved up after overpowering victories against Iowa and Indiana last week. Sophomore Franz Wagner has upped his production since Michigan returned from its COVID pause, having now scored 20 or more points in three of Michigan’s five games. While Illinois remains in the top five, the Big Ten was not without a shakeup in the RTC top 10, as Iowa climbed and Ohio State fell this week.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN: Big Ten (5), Big 12 (4), ACC (2), Big East (2), SEC (2), AAC (1), MVC (1), MWC (1), WCC (1)


  • Georgia Tech: A win at Virginia Tech was followed up by a home win against Syracuse to move Georgia Tech to 13-8 (9-6 ACC). The Yellow Jackets began February ranked outside of the top 60 in the NET Rankings but now enter March ranked 40th.
  • Oklahoma State: No team in the country has a better overtime record than Oklahoma State (4-0), which needed five extra minutes to beat both Texas Tech and Oklahoma this past week. In the Bedlam battle, Cade Cunningham delivered his best performance of the season, dropping 40 points to go along with 11 rebounds and six assists. Oklahoma State prepares for a challenging week with games against Oklahoma, Baylor and West Virginia on the schedule.
  • St. Bonaventure: After beating A-10 contender Davidson to start the week, the Bonnies picked up their most lopsided conference win in program history with a 47-point win over George Washington. With some help via a VCU loss, St. Bonaventure has clinched the A-10 title and the top seed in the conference tournament. Sharpshooter Dominick Welch comes into the week hot having made 12-of-20 from deep over his last three games.


  • Indiana: On Wednesday night the Hoosiers got off to a hot start against Rutgers leading the Scarlet Knights 23-8. From there, nothing went right for IU. Rutgers outscored the Hoosiers 62-27 over the next 25 minutes en route to a 74-63 Rutgers win. Archie Miller’s team followed that up with a home loss to Michigan. Now having lost three straight and six of their last nine, the Hoosiers resume continues heading in the wrong direction.
  • Oklahoma: The Sooners stumbled in the RTC16 this week after an 0-2 week which included a loss against lowly Kansas State, a game in which OU led by six points with under four minutes to go. After losing to Oklahoma State in overtime on Sunday, the in-state rivals meet again on Monday night.
  • USC: The Pac-12’s “mountain trip” is often described as the toughest road test in the Pac-12 and it proved to be just that to USC. The Trojans dropped a pair and fell out of first place in the league. SC was outscored from beyond the three-point line by 42 points in the two games. The month of February has not been kind to Andy Enfield as his Trojans are just 20-20 in the month over the past five seasons.


  • Monday: Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State (9 PM EST, ESPN)
  • Tuesday: Illinois @ Michigan (7 PM EST, ESPN), Baylor @ West Virginia (5 PM EST)
  • Wednesday: Creighton @ Villanova (8:30 PM EST, Fox Sports 1), UCLA @ Oregon (9 PM EST, ESPN2)
  • Thursday: Oklahoma State @ Baylor, 7 PM EST
  • Friday: Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest, 8 PM EST
  • Saturday: Illinois @ Ohio State, 4 PM EST
  • Sunday: Atlantic Sun, Big South, and Missouri Valley Conference Title Games
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