ACC M5: ACC Tourney Edition

Posted by Matt Patton on March 7th, 2017

morning5_ACC

  1. Greensboro News & Record: HB2 strikes again. This year an NCAA Tournament first weekend site was moved from Greensboro to Greenville, South Carolina; now commissioner John Swofford says the league would “be remiss if [it] didn’t” plan on alternative future locations for the ACC Tournament. This could serve to precipitate the inevitable decentralization of the ACC and/or the ultimate evolution to a national entity (much as the Duke/North Carolina rivalry has become a national phenomenon). According to a February poll, approximately 60 percent of North Carolina residents disagree with large parts of HB2 (including the part that led the NCAA to pull its events out of the state). Potentially losing the ACC Tournament may be what forces the North Carolina legislature to move forward with a full repeal. We’ll learn very soon how much the Tar Heel State cares about the ACC Tournament.
  2. The ACC: The league got it right with the all-ACC first team (and based on the vote totals, it was a no-brainer): North Carolina’s Justin Jackson, Wake Forest’s John Collins and Notre Dame’s Bonzie Colson should have joined Duke’s Luke Kennard as unanimous first-teamers (the same probably goes for Louisville’s Donovan Mitchell, though he’s a hair below the top four). I thought Collins would finish a bit closer to Jackson in Player of the Year votes (although it’s likely that many voters rewarded Jackson for being on a better team). The only head-scratcher among the group was that Kennard didn’t get more votes for Most Improved Player.
  3. KenPom: Ken Pomeroy projects the ACC Tournament as a three-team race (Florida State gets an honorable mention) between North Carolina, Virginia and Louisville. Dark horse: Wake Forest has a pretty favorable path to the semifinals and will have the best player on the floor in nearly every game. A fun (potential) matchup I’m most looking forward to: the Duke vs. NC State rematch on Wednesday. Either way should be a great week of games. Food for thought: Florida State is the most well-balanced team efficiency-wise (although North Carolina and Louisville both rank among the top 25 in offensive and defensive efficiency). That should bode well in the postseason.
  4. Charlottesville Daily Progress: London Perrantes had quite the career at Virginia. Even as part of a program that doesn’t get any one-and-dones, a four-year college starter is exceedingly rare. He owns the most starts in Virginia history (a number inflated by the modern schedule, but still impressive nevertheless). He’s also defined the program as an unflashy, never flustered, quietly efficient point guard. He’s left Ty Jerome some pretty big shoes to fill in his absence.
  5. Raleigh News & Observer: NC State fans probably need a sincere pick-me-up, so how about a retrospective on the Wolfpack’s last ACC championship? It’s somewhat bittersweet since it also highlights the slow decline of the program as Duke grew into a national powerhouse in the 1980s and 1990s. Barry Jacobs’ stories are always tremendous, and this one comes through as well.

EXTRA: This piece on the ACC’s historic ties to the Big Apple is fascinating. Like I mentioned in this morning’s first blurb, the ACC may be nearing the end of its transition from a regional to a national brand. This story sheds more light on the beginning of that history, and how the league pushed recruiting well beyond its footprint.

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2016-17 RTC Top 25: Week 15

Posted by Walker Carey on February 27th, 2017

The penultimate week of the college basketball regular season is in the books, and it was a week marked by a few top teams suffering surprising defeats. First, #2 Villanova saw its seven-game win streak end Wednesday when #12 Butler went into Philadelphia and used an 18-0 second half run to catapult itself to a 74-66 victory. An even more stunning upset took place Saturday when previously undefeated #3 Gonzaga saw an early 16-point home lead disappear in being vanquished by a plucky BYU squad, 79-71. Not only did this loss end Gonzaga’s bid at a perfect regular season, but it also began conversations regarding if the Bulldogs are actually worthy of a number one seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. This season has been defined by the unexpected, so it is only reasonable to assume that more craziness will occur during the final week. Hopefully we will also see some of it carry over into the postseason. This week’s Quick N’ Dirty after the jump.

Quick N’ Dirty Analysis. Read the rest of this entry »

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ACC M5: 02.23.17 Edition

Posted by Matt Patton on February 23rd, 2017

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  1. Syracuse Post-Standard: Before I get started, I hope you caught that SyracuseDuke game last night. The big home win probably puts the Orange on the right side of the bubble for now (although this is far from assured), and John Gillon‘s contested three that banked through was the team’s second game-winner of the month. Duke only has its second half defense to blame for the loss. The Blue Devils played plenty well enough on offense, but allowing Syracuse to go a blistering 18-of-26 from the field in the second half was more than a good night on the glass could overcome. But back to the story at hand: Apparently an upset Syracuse fan called Georgia Tech head coach Josh Pastner to complain about fans chanting “air ball” at Gillon. Thankfully, Gillon’s 26-point, six-assist performance last night shows he wasn’t too impacted by the vitriol.
  2. Roanoke Times: Clemson may have sold its soul for a football championship (and its fans are likely at peace with that). After Tuesday night’s loss to Virginia Tech, the Tigers are now 1-7 in games decided by five p0ints or fewer in ACC play (they lost another game by six points). That gives Brad Brownell’s club a slight edge over Wake Forest in ranking lowest in ACC “Luck,” according to Ken Pomeroy (the Demon Deacons, by contrast, are 3-4 in ACC games decided by five points or fewer). If in fact Clemson still has its soul, that would imply some regression (or progression) to the mean, which could mean an exciting week in Brooklyn for the Tigers.
  3. Sports Illustrated: This is your annual reminder that the ACC will likely be replacing four Hall of Fame coaches in coming years, not to mention Miami’s Jim Larranaga. The only obvious choice is Jeff Capel almost certainly getting the chance to succeed Mike Krzyzweski at Duke (although given enough time, Chris Collins may have too much success at Northwestern to ignore). It remains to be seen whether North Carolina learned its lesson from hiring Matt Doherty, or whether the Tar Heel Way will take precedence over a surer pick. I don’t see the Tar Heels hiring Texas’ Shaka Smart, but Arizona’s Sean Miller would have a tough time saying no. Cincinnati’s Mick Cronin makes perfect sense at Louisville (and he’s criminally underrated nationally). Replacing Jim Boeheim at Syracuse looks simultaneously the easiest and most challenging. There’s a successor already in place (Mike Hopkins), but there’s been no evidence of any momentum to hand over the keys.
  4. Duke Basketball Report: Try to avoid the unnecessary aside about North Carolina’s academic scandal (the Raleigh News & Observer covered it better than any paper in the country and was relentless in uncovering new facets of the case). Other than that, I agree wholeheartedly with Al Featherston’s description of the NC State job. It’s a good but not elite job. Hiring Sidney Lowe (and the media narrative following Herb Sendek’s ousting) put the program in a really tough long-term spot. Mark Gottfried dug out of the hole but his team looked totally lost this year. Featherston’s best point is that a lot of luck goes into hiring a basketball coach. NC State could make a great hire (and that includes many people other than Archie Miller — UNC Wilmington’s Kevin Keatts and North Carolina Central’s Levelle Moton both come to mind). They could also make another hire that’s a band-aid, or worse.
  5. WRAL Sports Fan: Props to the ACC for ending the asinine process where anyone who contributed $15 could vote for postseason awards. That led to a huge advantage for North Carolina schools. Now each team will be represented by an equal number of people. In a league the size (both in terms of number of teams and geographic area) of the ACC, this makes the most sense.
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2016-17 RTC Top 25: Week 14

Posted by Walker Carey on February 20th, 2017

As we enter the home stretch of the college basketball season, the top two teams in the RTC25 have separated themselves from the pack as the best squads in the country. Top-ranked Gonzaga continued its undefeated run with dominant home victories over San Francisco and Pacific. The Bulldogs finish their regular season on Thursday at San Diego and Saturday in Spokane versus BYU, making the likelihood of a perfect 30-0 mark entering postseason play very likely. Second-ranked Villanova extended its winning streak to seven in a row with easy road wins last week over DePaul and Seton Hall — the Wildcats are now 26-2 overall and 13-2 in Big East play. They will have a chance to improve on those marks with looming home showdowns this week against #22 Butler on Wednesday and #23 Creighton on Saturday. Of course a lot can still happen between now and Selection Sunday, but it certainly looks like Gonzaga and Villanova will be pleased with where they end up on the evening of March 12. This week’s Quick N’ Dirty after the jump.

Quick N’ Dirty Analysis.

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ACC M5: 02.14.17 Edition

Posted by Matt Patton on February 14th, 2017

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  1. WTVD (ABC 11): Mark Armstrong dropped quite a bombshell on NC State fans yesterday. Per his sources, Debbie Yow has decided to fire head coach Mark Gottfried at the end of the season and the school has already reached out to Archie Miller. Reaching out to the Dayton head coach is the only part of the report that NC State denies, which makes sense (the school would reach out to Miller’s agent, not him directly). Joe Giglio does a good job breaking down Gottfried’s resume and it appears that such a move could be the right decision so long as the school makes the right hire.
  2. Richmond Times-Dispatch: Virginia Tech announced forward Chris Clarke has torn his ACL and is done for the season. This is a huge blow to the Hokies’ NCAA Tournament hopes, as their rotation isn’t very deep and Clarke is the team’s best defensive rebounder. Even considering last weekend’s big win over Virginia, the loss of the sophomore likely means Virginia Tech’s postseason rests on a strong showing in the ACC Tournament (wins over Duke and Virginia probably do not make up for such a lackluster non-conference schedule).
  3. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Is the honeymoon era over for Pittsburgh and the ACC? Was this a form of destiny or a simply a clash of basketball styles? Maybe some of both. While Mike DeCourcy is right when he points out Pittsburgh’s lack of homegrown talent, plenty of schools with abundant local products also regularly struggle (see: Georgia Tech). Occam’s Razor suggests that Jamie Dixon didn’t like the change of administration and knew he’d be paid handsomely with correspondingly less pressure at TCU. However, Decourcy’s point does mean that the Pittsburgh program cannot afford to float into anonymity. That being said, if the last couple of seasons have taught us anything in ACC basketball, the right hire (hello, Buzz Williams) can make all the difference.
  4. Sporting News: I hate this storyline. Yes, the ACC could set a new record for number of entrants to the Big Dance, but that’s a product of expansion rather than depth. The same was true of the Big East in 2011, which placed 11 teams into the NCAA Tournament. There’s a simple reason neither the Big East nor the ACC was rated as the best conference by Ken Pomeroy in 2011 or this year. Our perception of depth (highly impacted by media coverage and one-off results) differs from reality. It’s true that there’s a ton of parity at the top of this league, but highest number is dumber than non-possession adjusted stats (in 1996 and 1997, for example, the ACC placed six of its nine teams into the Big Dance).
  5. Technique: In happier news, Georgia Tech still has a chance to make the NCAA Tournament. That’s astounding considering what this program looked like coming into the season. It still looks like an uphill climb thanks to a pretty uninspiring non-conference schedule, but a strong finish could make up for some of those early season struggles.
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2016-17 RTC Top 25: Week 13

Posted by Walker Carey on February 13th, 2017

Another week of the college basketball season has come and gone, and with it a little more clarity has been revealed regarding the group of college basketball’s top teams. Duke and UCLA both showed on Thursday night that they must be included in the discussion. The Blue Devils, whose dramatically volatile season has been thoroughly documented, stayed on the winning course by earning an 86-78 victory over arch-rival North Carolina. The Bruins earned some revenge from an early Pac-12 loss to Oregon by riding its home crowd and a rejuvenated defensive effort to an impressive 82-79 comeback win. February is normally the month where elite teams begin to separate themselves from the pack, so it will be interesting to observe whether UCLA and Duke, along with a handful of others above them in the rankings, are ready to make a push. There are many opportunities for teams to earn impressive wins and bolster their NCAA Tournament résumés. It just comes down to which teams will actually take advantage of those opportunities. This week’s Quick N’ Dirty after the jump.

Quick N’ Dirty Analysis.

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ACC M5: 02.09.17 Edition

Posted by Matt Patton on February 9th, 2017

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  1. Louisville Courier-Journal: Arguably the ACC’s best team may be about to get a lot better. The undermanned result against Virginia (which has always played kryptonite to Rick Pitino’s teams) aside, Louisville‘s Quentin Snider has been cleared to practice. There’s still no concrete timeline on his return to game action, but the Cardinals are a much scarier offensive team with Snider on the floor — especially since Tony Hicks broke his hand.
  2. ACC Sports: While the world outside is chaotic, a well-worn (at least by Jon Rothstein) phrase still applies. Death. Taxes. And NC State‘s coach finding a warm seat after failing to meet expectations. Mark Gottfried  — someone who does not have a track record of sustained coaching excellence — was a hire in Raleigh that always came with an expiration date. And that’s why a season where the Wolfpack have plenty of talent but few quality wins to show for it is so important. The most damning part of NC State’s play this year hasn’t been its record; rather, it’s been the occasional appearance of quitting. Many times that has meant Dennis Smith playing his own game; sometimes it’s been lukewarm moral victory talk from Gottfried after an embarrassing loss; and other times it’s been a veteran player getting left behind on an important road trip. Gottfried has earned another chance because he’s shown considerable success during his tenure with the Wolfpack, but fans are right to worry that this season’s disappointment fits very well with his career pattern.
  3. South Florida Sun-Sentinel: Thanks to a win against Virginia Tech, Miami is probably on the right side of the bubble for now. Unfortunately for the Hurricanes, their closing ACC schedule makes achieving .500 in conference play look like an uphill battle. A trio of away games at Louisville, Virginia and Florida State are nearly guaranteed losses; a home game against Duke and a road trip to Virginia Tech certainly won’t be cake walks either. Without a legitimate non-conference win to hang its hat on, Miami will likely need a decent showing in Brooklyn to feel secure on Selection Sunday. Jim Larranaga is right to point out that youth is his team’s biggest hurdle, but the flashes his team has already shown should frighten ACC opponents about the Hurricanes’ future.
  4. Raleigh News & Observer: Roy Williams was all class when talking about Grayson Allen before tonight’s battle between Duke and North Carolina, describing the attention Allen has gotten as “way, way out of proportion.” And he’s right. Of course, Duke brought some of this on Allen because it never suspended him last season and his “indefinite” suspension earlier this year was for only one game. But ESPN‘s coverage of Allen has bordered on farcical, perhaps topped by Michelle Beadle calling for an opponent to knock him out. Here’s hoping tonight’s game is good enough to outshine the controversy.
  5. The Pitt News: The eight-game losing streak is dead! Pittsburgh finally notched its second ACC win (the Panthers beating Virginia will never make sense) thanks to playing an outmatched Boston College.

EXTRA: Get ready.

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Media Timeout: If It Bleeds, It Leads – Especially If It’s Duke

Posted by Will Tucker on February 7th, 2017

College basketball places huge emphasis on individual games — showdowns between top-ranked teams, annual rivalry clashes, single-elimination tournaments — but it’s important from time to time to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. The Media Timeout considers how fans and journalists watch, follow and talk about the sport.


For the second time in as many seasons, Duke entered February with five or more losses. Four of those have come in conference play, where Duke sits in the middle of the ACC log jam. What began as a National Title march went way off course over the winter break. First, the Blue Devils lost to Virginia Tech for the first time since 2011, with their best player riding the pine after losing his captaincy. Then they lost head coach Mike Krzyzewski to back surgery and a lengthy recovery. Then they lost access to their own locker room after falling to NC State in Cameron Indoor Stadium for the first time since 1995.

Jeff Capel III

Assistant Jeff Capel presided over a rocky 4-3 stretch in Mike Krzyzewski’s absence (Mark Dolejs/USA TODAY Sports)

It’s safe to say Duke has staunched the bleeding after winning back-to-back ACC road games and escaping last-place Pitsburgh over the weekend with Krzyzewski back on the bench. But with plenty of questions remaining ahead of a date with North Carolina this week, it’s also too early to claim that the Blue Devils have righted the ship. In spite of Duke’s undistinguished resume and erratic play, the preseason #1 team remains a fixture in national headlines and ESPN segments. Why? The obvious answer is Grayson Allen, the embattled preseason Player of the Year pick whose volatile play and widespread criticism has delighted those who can’t stand his petulant and, at times, dangerous behavior on the court. But Allen obviously isn’t the first high-profile college player to behave badly, and the gleeful spectacle around his slow unravelling speaks to greater forces at play. Read the rest of this entry »

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ACC M5: 02.07.17 Edition

Posted by Matt Patton on February 7th, 2017

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  1. Syracuse Post Standard: Apparently (and unsurprisingly, really) Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski called Jim Boeheim to congratulate him on his 899th* win (*just kidding, he has 1,000 wins). But more important than his USA Basketball colleague was the reception that Boeheim received from Orange fans. I’m a little worried, though, that he NCAA’s sanctioning of Boeheim will mean that he and Krzyzewski retire sooner than if there was still a reasonable chance of the former catching the latter.
  2. Louisville Courier-Journal: Louisville probably would have lost to Virginia last night regardless of their presence, but the absences of Mangok Mathiang and Deng Adel made their odds even lower. The real story here, though, was Rick Pitino‘s reaction when asked about Mathiang’s missing rebounding. After a standard graciousness in losing interview, Pitino then sniped: “I don’t even… Don’t mention his name to me.” Then he ended the interview. It’s certainly possible that Pitino was simply fed up with reporters at that point, but it’s more likely he’s livid with his captain for violating curfew. Pitino needs to strike the right balance, though, because the Cardinals have a chance to cut down some postseason nets if they can get reasonably healthy.
  3. Raleigh News & Observer: Even for a Mark Gottfried team, NC State‘s defense is atrocious. It’s unfortunate that StatBroadcast no longer exists, as it would be interesting to see non-adjusted efficiency ratings for the Wolfpack. The saddest part of this analysis is that NC State isn’t even the least efficient team in the ACC in conference play. That honor goes to Pittsburgh, which has allowed its conference opponents to shoot 42.5 percent from three and 53.7 percent from inside the arc. Either way, expect Gottfried hot seat chatter to reach fever pitch if this team doesn’t turn things around very quickly.
  4. Orlando Sentinel: My goodness, Florida State put the beatdown on Clemson this weekend. The 48-point victory was so lopsided that the Tigers’ FanSided blog went on a rant about needing better recruiting. I agree fully with the statement that head coach Brad Brownell needs to recruit more talent — that said, the question with this particular coach was always going to be about his ability to attract talent. The Clemson program, when viewed through an impossibly optimistic lens, looks like a sleeping giant. They have plenty of money and national publicity (with even more coming after the CFP National Championship); and they have an awesome, intimate basketball arena. But viewed more realistically, Clemson is awful more often than it is good. It’s a football school, through and through.
  5. Slap the Sign: This article is more than a little dramatic. Notre Dame certainly didn’t have a very good week, but the Irish are a long way from missing the NCAA Tournament. They rank among the top 30 in projected RPI, among the top 30 in KenPom, and are a consensus #6 seed in Bracket Matrix. Notre Dame can’t continue on its current path (1-5 in their last six games), but there’s no reason to think the Irish will either. Against Florida State and at Louisville will be really tough games, but the remaining five should all be wins (with the possible exception of NC State in Raleigh).
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2016-17 RTC Top 25: Week 12

Posted by Walker Carey on February 6th, 2017

This Saturday gave college basketball one of the most chaotic days of the regular season, and no conference felt that impact more than the Big 12. The league’s top three teams were all defeated, with two of those losses coming to unranked foes at home. The chaos started with #4 Kansas having its 54-game home winning streak snapped in a 92-89 overtime loss to Iowa State. At the same time the Jayhawks were losing to the Cyclones, #10 Baylor‘s offense struggled its way to a 56-54 home loss to Kansas State. To conclude the afternoon, #13 West Virginia blew a four-point halftime lead to allow Oklahoma State to leave Morgantown with an 82-75 victory. A host of other top 10 teams also lost on Saturday. There is always going to be that one crazy day in a college basketball season, so it’s worth wondering if Saturday was this year’s or if even more craziness is yet to come. This week’s Quick N’ Dirty Analysis is after the jump.

Quick N’ Dirty Analysis.

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