Rushed Reactions: #4 West Virginia 83, #5 Notre Dame 71

Posted by Tommy Lemoine on March 18th, 2017

West Virginia relied on timely shooting and aggressive defense (per usual) to reach its second Sweet Sixteen in the last three years.

West Virginia is headed to San Jose next week. (AP Photo/Bill Wippert)

Three Key Takeaways.

  1. No one is immune to Press Virginia. Notre Dame entered Saturday with the best offensive turnover rate in the country, a testament to its stable of seasoned ball-handlers and deliberate approach. Faced with West Virginia’s relentless, bruising defensive pressure, though, the Irish struggled just as so many of the Mountaineers’ opponents have this season. Mike Brey’s veteran club suffered 10 turnovers in the first half alone, unable to find any offensive rhythm and surrendering easy baskets on the other end. West Virginia — which forces turnovers at a higher rate than any other team in college hoops — jumped out to a 10-0 lead to start the game and never really looked back.
  2. The Mountaineers’ offense was pretty great, too. Much of the conversation surrounding West Virginia focuses on its defense, and deservedly so. But if it was defense that gave the Mountaineers’ an initial edge on Saturday, it was the offense that ultimately carried them home. Bob Huggins’ group shot 50 percent from the field, including 8-of-14 from behind the arc and 21-of-26 at the free throw line. Especially great was West Virginia’s interior passing, which enabled Esa Ahmad (11 points), Elijah Macon (11 points), Daxter Miles (18 points), and others to routinely find easy looks at the rim. Oh, and the timely three-point shooting helped — especially from Jevon Carter (4-of-5 3FG), who drilled a clutch triple with 2:30 remaining that helped stick a fork in Notre Dame.
  3. Bonzie Colson was every bit as good as you’d expect. While Notre Dame lost, it wasn’t because Colson didn’t hold his own. The uniquely-built 6’5″ forward scored 27 points on 10-of-15 shooting, including 4-of-5 shooting from long range along with eight rebounds. Despite picking up his fourth foul with about nine minutes left in the game, Colson remained effective on the offensive end, enabling the Irish to hang around despite facing a superior opponent. Silver lining for Notre Dame fans? The big man is only a junior, and should enter 2017-18 as a front-runner for ACC Player of the Year.

Player of the Game. Jevon Carter, West Virginia (24 points, 4-of5 3FG). For as outstanding as Colson was, Carter make the biggest difference in this game. The 6’2″ junior, known for his tenacious defense and quick hands (2.6. SPG), knocked down big shot after big shot on Saturday, including a long three-pointer from straight-on midway through the second half and that dagger triple with a few minutes remaining. He couldn’t have picked a better time to match his season-high point total.

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Rushed Reactions: #5 Notre Dame 60, #12 Princeton 58

Posted by Bennet Hayes on March 16th, 2017

Notre Dame didn’t play its best game of the season in the NCAA Tournament opener Thursday, but the Irish were able to survive a second-half Princeton push to advance to the second round.

Bonzie Colson, V.J. Beachem, and the rest of the Irish were lucky to survive Thursday afternoon (Photo: ND Insider)

Key Takeaways

  1. Princeton couldn’t find the range from deep. The Tigers’ ineptitude from long range (they made just 8-of-31 three-point attempts) was the defining element of this game. Devin Cannady, who shot 42 percent from long range on the season, made just two of his 10 attempts today. The largest of those eight misses came with just three seconds to play and the Tigers down two; when Cannady’s potential game-winner caromed off the back rim, Princeton’s upset bid was effectively over, and in fitting fashion: on a three-point miss.
  2. Irish dominate the glass. Notre Dame and its undersized roster rarely found an ACC team it could dominate on the glass, but the Ivy League champs proved beatable on the backboards. Bonzie Colson‘s 12 boards paced the Irish, which finished with nine offensive rebounds and a +3 rebounding advantage. On a day when the shots were not falling, those second opportunities were extremely important.
  3. Bonzie keeps grinding. Notre Dame’s gritty leader submitted one more tough performance in a season full of them. Colson had 18 points, seven rebounds, and a pair of blocks — all of which led the Irish. He did leave some points on the board – Colson shot just 6-of-13 from the field and missed four of his 10 free throw attempts — but on a day where Irish three-point attempts (11) and makes (four) were well below their season averages, it was the resourcefulness of Colson that again carried the offense.

Star of the GameMatt Farrell, Notre Dame. The Irish point guard, like every other player in this game, was far from perfect; however, Farrell was a spark for much of the afternoon, finishing with 16 points, four assists, and a pair of steals. He made six of his nine field goal attempts (including three from long-range) and came up with a number of key hoops to maintain the Irish lead early in the second half. Colson was equally effective, but Farrell gets the nod as the most efficient player on this afternoon.

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Beware the Polls: Overperforming Teams Regress in NCAA Tournament

Posted by Will Ezekowitz on March 14th, 2017

Preseason rankings may seem irrelevant when it comes to college basketball, but history has shown that their predictive value are surprisingly important. For example, as we have shown in this space before, the preseason poll is in fact just as predictive of a run to the Final Four as the current AP Poll. The reasoning behind this phenomenon is that the preseason polls take into account all of the changes that the mathematical models have more difficulty accounting for (i.e. coaching changes, big recruiting classes, injuries, etc.). The conventional wisdom entering the season is actually fairly sophisticated and smart.

Are You Sure You Want to Choose Michigan? (AP)

Given this intuition, let’s examine the teams that defied that wisdom throughout the season and went from unranked in the preseason to ranked in the final AP poll before the NCAA Tournament. Had the preseason polls gotten something wrong? Or did these over-performing teams regress back to their expectations in the postseason? Using the last 10 years of data that includes seed win expectation data from fivethirtyeight.com, I investigated. Of the 97 teams who qualified for analysis, 32 (33%) of those teams outperformed their win expectations in the NCAA Tournament while 65 (67%) underperformed. As a whole, a group that was expected to win 138.8 games over the 10-year sample won just 107. A statistical T-test found this difference statistically significant. In fact, only one team — Kemba Walker’s 2011 National Championship team, Connecticut — even made the Final Four.

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RTC Bracket Prep: West Region

Posted by Bennet Hayes on March 13th, 2017

All day on Monday we will roll out our region-by-region analysis for the 2017 NCAA Tournament. Here, Bennet Hayes (@HoopsTraveler) breaks down the West Region from top to bottom. Also, be sure to follow our RTC West Region handle on Twitter for continuous updates the next two weeks (@RTCWestRegion).

West Region

Favorite: #1 Gonzaga (32-1, 17-1 WCC). The Bulldogs still possess their share of skeptics, but 32 wins in 33 games played proved sufficient to earn Mark Few’s team a #1 seed and favorite status in the West Region. Gonzaga rebounded from a Senior Night loss to BYU to win three games in Las Vegas at the WCC Tournament by an average margin of 19.7 PPG and enter the NCAA Tournament poised for a deep run. The Zags also own a neutral court victory over West #2 seed Arizona from early December, and efficiency ratings still love their body of work: KenPom ranks them a comfortable #1 in his metrics. Gonzaga failures of recent March pasts will surely entice many bracket-fillers to look to the #2 line or below for their champion from this region, but on both paper and the hardwood, the Zags are an extremely worthy West favorite.

Nigel Williams-Goss will lead #1-seeded Gonzaga into the NCAA Tournament (Photo: Campus Insiders)

Should They Falter: #2 Arizona (30-4, 16-2 Pac-12). Arizona’s late push for a #1 seed fell short, but the Pac-12 Tournament champion enters the NCAA Tournament as winners of 24 of their last 26 games. Allonzo Trier’s late January reintegration into the lineup was relatively seamless, as the sophomore guard and Pac-12 Tournament MOP has led the Wildcats with 17.3 PPG since returning. The Wildcats are young – three freshmen play key roles and Kadeem Allen is the only senior contributor – and their success this season has been somewhat unexpected, but balance, selflessness, and the steady hand of Sean Miller will present Arizona a real opportunity to make a sustained March run.

Grossly Overseeded: #6 Maryland (24-8, 12-6 Big Ten). Florida State’s seed line (#3) fairly drew the ire of critics after bracket reveal, but Maryland’s placement as a #6 seed should be equally befuddling. Conference mates Wisconsin (#8 seed) and Michigan (#7 seed) each won more games against Big Ten opponents, possessed better non-conference victories, and finished the season stronger than the slumping Terrapins (4-6 in their last 10 games), yet received lower seeds. The exact role of advanced metrics in the committee’s methodology continues to be unclear, but they appeared to have little consequence in Maryland’s case, KenPom’s 45th ranked team. Kudos to Mark Turgeon, Melo Trimble and the rest of the Terrapins for making more out of this season than most expected, but a #6 seed the Terrapins are not.

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NCAA Tournament Instareaction: ACC Teams

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on March 12th, 2017

The ACC received nine bids to the NCAA Tournament today, as the Selection Committee rewarded one of the league’s two bubble teams with Wake Forest making the field over Syracuse and its 2-10 record away from the Carrier Dome. Another big question going into today was whether regular season champion North Carolina or ACC Tournament winner Duke would get a #1 seed? The Tar Heels, on the strength of their regular season work, ultimately got the nod from the committee. Here are some quick best- and worst-case scenarios for each of the nine ACC teams in the field.

North Carolina (#1 South)

  • Best Case: The Tar Heels’ size and experience results in another appearance in the National Championship game with a chance for the school’s sixth national title.
  • Worst Case: North Carolina has another bad shooting night away from the Smith Center against an opponent (e.g., Butler) that will not allow the Heels to dominate the offensive glass.

Duke hopes to continue to play like it did in Brooklyn where they won four games in four days to capture the ACC Tourney Title. (abc11.com)

Duke (#2 East)

  • Best Case: Duke builds on its current momentum all the way to Phoenix, giving Coach K a shot at his sixth National Championship.
  • Worst Case: On a day when Duke’s threes are not falling, the Blue Devils get picked off in the Second Round by South Carolina, which benefits from a friendly local crowd in Greenville.

Louisville (#2 Midwest)

  • Best Case: Louisville’s defense overwhelms its foes and the Cardinals hit enough shots to get Rick Pitino back to the Final Four for a chance at his second title at the school and third overall.
  • Worst Case: The threes and free throws don’t connect for the Cardinals and they can’t get turnovers against a hot Michigan or Oklahoma State squad in the Second Round.

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Rushed Reactions: #3 Notre Dame 77 #2 Florida State 73

Posted by Matthew Auerbach on March 10th, 2017

Three Key Takeaways.

It’s Brey Day in Brooklyn (USA Today Images)

  1. Notre Dame was the harder playing, smarter, better team. The Irish were the beneficiaries of its characteristically hot shooting from beyond the arc (13 made threes), but they also impressively took the fight to the bigger, stronger and more athletic Seminoles. Led by fearless floor leader Matt Farrell, Notre Dame was the aggressor in racing out to a 16-point halftime lead, leaving Florida State struggling to match the intensity of the Irish. A flurry of hot shooting from little-utilized Braian Angola-Rodas (17 points, 4-of-7 from three) was all that kept the game moderately competitive, but Florida State never applied any legitimate pressure to Notre Dame.
  2. This is why it’s impossible to trust Florida State. Just 24 hours ago, I sat in the same seat convinced that this version of the Seminoles was somehow different and perhaps worthy of discussion as a potential Final Four participant. Now I’m not so sure… or maybe I’ve just flat out changed my mind. It was not so much the loss but rather the uninspired, listless nature of the Florida State performance that makes trusting it so disconcerting. An illustration of the Seminoles’ substandard effort came early in the second half. After watching Notre Dame drill eight, mostly uncontested triples in the first 20 minutes, there is very little doubt that Leonard Hamilton addressed this point in the locker room. Just 1:15 after the half, though, Farrell found himself with a wide-open look from the corner as a lazy, last-second closeout effort by Dwayne Bacon once again proved late and futile.
  3. Don’t judge a book by its cover. Farrell and Bonzie Colson look like a pair of guys likely to be picked last in some of the more competitive pickup games in Brooklyn. But tonight, in a circumstance that becoming far from unusual, they were the two best players on the floor. The senior point guard (15 points, six assists) controlled the game from the tip, employing his grit and intellect that sometimes tends to unfairly overshadow his ability. The behemoth front line size of Florida State was somehow no match for the undersized Colson (18 points, six rebounds), who at 6’5” continues to amaze with his nose for the ball and penchant for scoring over taller opponents.

Star of the Game: Steve Vasturia, Notre Dame.  While the aforementioned dominated the tilt, Vasturia matched Colson’s 18 points in hitting some big shots to stem the tide and grabbed g a critical offensive rebound in the final minute.

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Inside the ACC Numbers: Volume VIII – Final Edition

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on March 7th, 2017

Here is the final edition of our weekly review of the current ACC standings and team performances where we focus on which teams are playing better or worse than their records indicate. Each week we delve into advanced metrics to reveal a few interesting teams, player statistics and trends. With the regular season now complete, we will look at which ACC teams performed better in the second half of league play and how that may impact the upcoming ACC Tournament. Finally, we forecast how the final ACC standings may look given current efficiency margins and what that means for each team’s postseason aspirations.

Note: All data is current for games played through Saturday, March 4.

Current Standings

North Carolina finished with an impressive two-game lead in the standings to edge out Louisville with the league’s top efficiency margin. Since the Cardinals finished as the #4 seed for this week’s ACC Tournament in Brooklyn, the two best teams in the conference landed on the same side of the bracket. The Tar Heels finish with the league’s top offense for the first time since 2009 — incidentally the last time North Carolina won the National Championship. This year, Roy Williams’ club used an outstanding offensive rebounding rate (42.5%) to overcome a modest shooting year — the Heels finished 10th in the league in effective field goal percentage (51.7%). Virginia reclaimed its status as the ACC’s best defensive squad, as Tony Bennett‘s teams have now finished as one of the ACC’s two best defenses in each of the last six seasons. Virginia’s pack line defense led the league in forcing turnovers (20.1%) and finished third in opponents’ effective field goal percentage (48.5%). Read the rest of this entry »

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ACC Weekend Review: 03.06.17 Edition

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on March 6th, 2017

The ACC regular season wrapped up on Saturday and things went mostly according to plan with home favorites winning six of the seven contests. The lone road underdog to triumph was Wake Forest boosting its NCAA Tournament hopes with a nice comeback win at Virginia Tech. In one of the season’s most exciting games, North Carolina earned revenge for an earlier loss at Duke defeating the Blue Devils on Saturday night in the Smith Center. In other important action, Louisville and Florida State clinched double-byes in the upcoming ACC Tournament by beating Notre Dame and Miami, respectively. Syracuse also routed Georgia Tech in the Carrier Dome in what was effectively an NCAA Tournament elimination game. Here are the highlights of the weekend around the ACC.

After Saturday night’s win over Duke, Roy Williams celebrated North Carolina’s second consecutive outright ACC regular season title (Getty/Streeter Lecka)

  • Best Win I: Even though North Carolina had already clinched the ACC regular season title, the Tar Heels still had much at stake in its annual season-ending meeting with Duke. In using a late-game spurt to beat the Blue Devils, Roy Williams’ club avenged an earlier loss and moved considerably closer to clinching a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The game was a riveting back-and-forth affair with great individual performances on both sides. Luke Kennard made his case for ACC Player of the Year by leading the Blue Devils with 28 points, but his efforts were not enough to overcome outstanding performances from North Carolina’s Joel Berry (28 points including 5-of-5 on threes) and Isaiah Hicks (21 points, nine rebounds). Another difference this time came in the form of North Carolina’s improved perimeter defense. Duke punished the Tar Heels from beyond the arc with 13 three-pointers several weeks ago; on Saturday, the Blue Devils managed only 7-of-19 from deep.

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This Weekend in the ACC: March 4

Posted by Mick McDonald on March 4th, 2017

Here are a few things to keep your eye on around the ACC this weekend (all times Eastern).

Saturday, 2:00 PM: Notre Dame at Louisville The Fighting Irish have quietly fired off six straight victories (thanks in part to an incredibly soft portion of the schedule), but they now sit alone in second place and can lock down the #2 seed with a win at Louisville this afternoon. This version of Mike Brey’s squad is nearly unbeatable if it makes three-pointers at a high clip and protects the ball. Over the past six games, Notre Dame is shooting 38 percent from three-point range and averaging fewer than nine turnovers per game. In their first meeting with the Cardinals — a 77-70 win in South Bend — the Irish attempted a season-low 12 three-pointers (making five) but converted 22-of-25 attempts from the free throw line. They’ll need to knock down more long-range shots than that today if they want to walk out of the Yum! Center with a victory.

Can John Collins pull together another dominant performance for the Demon Deacons against Virginia Tech today? (Brian Westeholt/Wake Sports)

Saturday, 4:30 PM: Wake Forest at Virginia Tech. Wake Forest’s tournament resume has been beaten to death for having all the requisite components (good computer numbers; no bad losses; a solid performance in the best conference in the country) except a signature win. The Demon Deacons finally checked that box when they beat Louisville in Winston-Salem earlier this week. Today’s trip to Blacksburg is another good opportunity for Wake to earn a win over another likely NCAA Tournament team, and for John Collins to make his final statement for ACC Player of the Year. Collins has been terrific all season but the sophomore has taken it to another level recently. In his last six games, Collins is averaging 25.7 points, 11.7 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game while shooting 65 percent from the field and 77 percent from the line. The big man leads the nation in Player Efficiency Rating (36.7) and paces the ACC in effective field goal percentage (61.9%) and Win Shares per 40 minutes (26.2). Against a Hokies team that doesn’t have a lot of size, look for Collins to finish off his incredible season with an exclamation point.

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Inside the ACC Numbers: Volume VII

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on March 3rd, 2017

Here is the latest edition of our weekly review of the current ACC standings and team performances where we focus on which teams are playing better or worse than their records indicate. Each week we delve into advanced metrics to reveal a few interesting teams, player statistics and trends. This week we will look at the how ACC teams have performed in the nail-biter games — conference games decided by one or two possessions. Finally, we forecast how the final ACC standings may look given current efficiency margins, and what that means for each team’s postseason aspirations.

Note: All data is current for games played through Wednesday, March 1.

Current Standings

Hats off to North Carolina for clinching at least a share of the ACC regular season title for the second straight season and for the eighth time in Roy Williams’ 14-year tenure at the school. The Tar Heels took advantage of a scheduling imbalance in their favor this year, with only three road games coming versus the top nine schools in the ACC standings. Despite being generally regarded as the ACC’s sixth best team in both the efficiency metrics and the national polls, Notre Dame sits alone in second place in the standings. With the Irish traveling to Louisville this weekend, though, the odds are against Mike Brey’s squad in catching the Heels. If all the home favorites win their games this weekend, Virginia Tech could rise all the way to the #5 seed in next week’s ACC Tournament, even with a likely negative points per possession margin. See below for how Buzz Williams’ guys have made this a legitimate possibility.

Advanced Stat of the Week: Performance In Close Games

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