Sunday, March 21 (all CBS)
12:10pm - Syracuse vs. Gonzaga
2:20pm - Ohio State vs Georgia Tech
2:30pm - Maryland vs Michigan State
2:40pm - West Virginia vs Missouri
2:50pm - Wisconsin vs Cornell
4:50pm - Pittsburgh vs Xavier
5:00pm - Purdue vs Texas A&M
5:15pm - Duke vs California
Over the next two days in a series of separate posts, RTC will break down all 16 of the second round games using our best analytical efforts to understand these teams, the matchups and their individual strengths and weaknesses. Our hope is that you’ll let us know in the comments where you agree, disagree or otherwise think we’ve lost our collective minds. Here are the Sunday games.
12:10 pm – #1 Syracuse vs. #8 Gonzaga (Buffalo pod)
In the CBS national game to start the day, everyone will get this very enticing game between Syracuse and Gonzaga. Given the way this year is winding up, it wouldn’t surprise anyone if the Orange without their big man Arinze Onuaku found itself on the short end of the score around 2:30 pm today. But we still have faith in Syracuse even without the talented center and we think that Jim Boeheim’s team is too good to fall short of the Final Four this early. The primary problem that the Zags are going to have is one they didn’t have to worry as much about with Florida State, and that is in stopping the powerful SU offense. With offensive scoring threats at all five positions, Syracuse is in a far more advantageous position than FSU was (with their limited offense) when Gonzaga caught fire on Friday — if the Zags want to get into a shootout with Syracuse, that’s not likely to end well for them. Still, with the way the Big East has had so many early round troubles, and the WCC looking great with St. Mary’s already in the Sweet Sixteen, we’re not ready to dismiss the Zags based on that alone. The Syracuse zone is likely to be something that Mark Few’s team has not seen with such athletes all season, so even with their ability to put the ball in the hole, we hesitate to think the Zags can consistently score on it.
The Skinny: Gonzaga will push the Orange, but we still like this team to advance and make a serious push for the national title in coming weeks.
2:20 pm – #2 Ohio State vs. #10 Georgia Tech (Milwaukee pod)
You might not see it on their faces, but the Buckeyes are smiling. Northern Iowa’s removal of Kansas puts Ohio State in the driver’s seat in the Midwest region. That said, there’s still no way Thad Matta and Evan Turner are going to let the rest of that team look past their opponents and assume an open road to Indianapolis. Good thing, because Georgia Tech showed us that they’re not just made up of Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal and a bunch of suckers. The Yellow Jackets shot 2-10 from the three point line but balanced that by holding Big 12 player of the year James Anderson to a 3-12 shooting night, 0-6 from beyond the three-point arc, and an overall 11 points. But the most impressive aspect of Georgia Tech’s performance on Friday night — by FAR — was the fact that they went to the free throw line 25 times — and hit 24 of them! It wasn’t just Lawal and Favors. Tech played nine players, and eight of them shot at least one free throw. Evan Turner isn’t just the player of the year in his conference, though — he’s likely the national POY, so the Tech task is that much tougher. Turner wasn’t himself in their first round game against UCSB, going 2-13 and posting only nine points (though he did contribute 10 boards and five assists). He’s looking to break out, and knows he’ll have to be at his best. Lawal and Favors, though, will be looking to get Dallas Lauderdale, Jon Diebler, and Turner in foul trouble early and open poke some holes in that OSU front line.
The Skinny: You probably don’t want to go with our Midwest picks, since yesterday we took Kansas and Ohio. It’s not exactly going out on a limb to say that this will be a great second round game, but that stat line of Turner’s shows you that he can play such an important role on the team even when he’s not scoring. For Tech to win, they’d have to turn in a similar performance at the free throw line, keep Turner under wraps and coax him into a supporting role again, and cool down Jon Diebler. That’s a tough trifecta to pull off. We don’t see it happening. But we didn’t see Northern Iowa dismissing Kansas, either.
Each day this week during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament we’re asking some of our top correspondents to put together a collection of notes and interesting tidbits about each region. If you know of something that we should include in tomorrow’s submission, hit us up at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.
West Region Notes (Andrew Murawa)
The West Region is the only region in the tournament without a double-digit seed still alive, but that doesn’t mean it is without some dreamers, as the recent blueprint for the mid-major Cinderella, Gonzaga, takes on Syracuse tomorrow. And Mark Few knows that his Zags won’t be intimidated by the importance of this game. But in order for them to get the job done, they’ll need to figure out the Orange zone.
In a Washington Post poll of nearly 500 people, 66% of voters believe that Saturday’s Northern Iowa vs. Kansas game was a bigger upset than George Mason vs. Connecticut in 2006.
UNI’s Adam Koch might have had the quote of the night with his reaction to what Pat Forde called one of the ultimate no-no-YES shots in tournament history: “”Honestly? It was ‘Oh God,’ ” Koch admitted. “I wasn’t sure. But if anybody’s going to shoot it, Ali’s going to do it. And Ali’s probably going to make it.”
Maryland’s Landon Milbourne said that he expects the Terps to play a different style against Michigan State. In addition to pushing the tempo, Maryland may also look to apply full court pressure.
Michigan State is anything but healthy going into tomorrow’s game. Not only are Kalin Lucas and Chris Allensuffering from foot injuries, but Delvon Roe is still suffering from pain in his knee.
According to Cleveland.com’s Doug Lesmerises, Georgia Tech is much more talented than your average 10 seed or 12-loss team, led by potential first round pick Derrick Favors.
Each day this week during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament we’re asking some of our top correspondents to put together a collection of notes and interesting tidbits about each region. If you know of something that we should include in tomorrow’s submission, hit us up at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.
President Barack Obamapicked Kentucky to lose in his bracket’s final game but Coach John Calipari is worried about just getting momentum. “Land the plane. Survive and advance,” Calipari told Chris Low of ESPN. “That’s all we’re thinking about. We’re not worried about the score and who scores and what. Just land the plane and move on.”To that end, East Tennessee State lost by ten to Pitt last year as a #16 seed in the first round. Can they be the first to pull off the historic upset?
Perhaps both Texas and Wake Forest should just throw out their recent struggles.
Temple is only favored by 4 points over Cornell. Meanwhile Lafayette head coach Fran O’Hanlon has worked with both coaches and is rooting for both.
Would professors at Wofford dare to not pick the Terriers over Wisconsin in their office pool? And apparently message boards hounded Badger junior Tim Jarmusz earlier this season as he moved from starting forward to coming off the bench.
Washington’s Isaiah Thomas has a broken bone in his shooting hand, which is why he wears a glove.
Last year Marquette’s players shaved their heads in solidarity, but this time they got a different haircut.
New Mexico’s Darington Hobson is predicting a run to the regional finals. Meanwhile the New York Times has a great profile on Montana’s Anthony Johnson.
Over the next two days in a series of separate posts, RTC will break down all 32 of the first round games using our best analytical efforts to understand these teams, the matchups and their individual strengths and weaknesses. Our hope is that you’ll let us know in the comments where you agree, disagree or otherwise think we’ve lost our collective minds. Here are the Friday afternoon games.
12:15 pm – #2 West Virginia vs. #15 Morgan State (Buffalo pod)
West Virginia enters the NCAA Tournament as one of the hottest teams in the nation. They squeaked out an enormous road win at Villanova to end the regular season then swept through Cincinnati, Notre Dame and Georgetown en route to a Big East championship riding the heroics of Da’Sean Butler. The Mountaineers are an extremely gifted rebounding team; in fact, sometimes their best offense comes after a missed shot. They feature multiple weapons that can step out and shoot a mid-range jumper or three from Wellington Smith to Kevin Jones to the all-around dynamo Butler. Also, few teams can match West Virginia’s intensity in the halfcourt defensively. Morgan State head coach Todd Bozeman will need a gigantic scoring output from their own star, Baltimore native Reggie Holmes. Holmes scored 25 or more points fifteen times this season, averaging 21.3 PPG and ranking in the top-50 in percentage of shots taken. The Bears also feature a rugged forward named Kevin Thompson who comes in at fifth in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. In fact, Morgan State ranks 11th in the country as a team in that very category. Unfortunately for the underdogs, West Virginia is never outworked on the glass, not with Jones, Devin Ebanks and Bob Huggins prominently involved.
The Skinny: This one shouldn’t be close from the tip. Morgan State dominated the MEAC all season, but West Virginia is flying high at this point. Expect the Mountaineers to dominate by 25-30 points.
12:25 pm – #6 Xavier vs. #11 Minnesota (Milwaukee pod)
The answer to which team will win this game depends entirely on which Gopher team shows up to play in Milwaukee. Will it be the defensive juggernaut that held Purdue to 11 first half points last Saturday, or will it be the team that got obliterated by Ohio State 52-29 in the second half on Sunday? Tubby Smith’s team has been schizophrenic like that all year, following up strong wins with disastrous performances (two losses to Michigan? really?), which probably explains why they were a bubble team up until Sunday evening. Xavier comes into this one with the stronger resume, but it’s difficult to say if the Musketeers are the better team. When he plays under control, XU’s Jordan Crawford is a talent, and his supporting case of Jason Love on the interior and Terrell Holloway running the show makes for nice balance throughout the Xavier lineup. The question we have is who will win the defensive battle, though. Xavier defends the three really well, while Minnesota behind Blake Hoffarber and Lawrence Westbrook both shoot it equally as well. This game is essentially a tossup (Vegas agrees, setting Minny as a one-point favorite), and we really liked the first seven halves of basketball that the Gophers put up in Indianapolis on a neutral floor last week, so we’re going with the extremely mild 6/11 upset here, in a close game that comes down to the last possession.
The Skinny: Despite the seedings, this is a tossup game and we like the Gophers to win it on the last possession.
This is an idea we’ve had bouncing around in the dome for a while now, and since we’re not smart enough to actually do a bunch of number-crunching analysis with regression formulas and all that other statistical nonsense, we’re going to do what we know how to do — eyeball it. (note: if you want a more data-driven analysis, visit Vegas Watch for a region-by-region breakdown) We’ve taken a look at the Pomeroy numbers for the last five seasons (2005-09) to get a sense as to the type of offensive and defensive efficiency numbers that constitute your typical Elite Eight/Final Four/Runner-Up/Championship team. We know that all of these teams are pretty darn good — but can we draw any conclusions based on the past five years of historical data that might give us a clue as to how we should be looking at this year’s bracket?
Here’s the list of roughly thirty or so teams with the strongest efficiency differentials in the 2009-10 season (sorted as such): that far right column is the key number for our purposes. The greater the efficiency differential, the more dominant a team tends to be. Remember that both the offensive and defensive efficiency statistics represent the number of points a team scores over 100 possessions of basketball. +120 is really good for offense, while less than 90 is really good on defense. Anytime a team’s differential approaches +30 points or more, we’re reaching rarefied air in college basketball. (note - Pomeroy doesn’t provide historical data prior to past years’ tournaments, but we still think there is some value in looking at his final ratings because the likelihood that a team significantly improves or regresses during the snapshot window of the NCAA Tournament is small). If you don’t follow Pomeroy regularly, you might be a little surprised at the placement of certain teams versus some others. Have a look…
So what, right? Well, let’s see if we can use the historical data that we have from Pomeroy to make assessments of this year’s batch of teams and their prospects.
National Champions
Let’s first take a look at the last five national championship teams. What jumps out at us immediately is that they’re all offensive juggernauts. Every one of them is ranked first or second in offensive efficiency. These teams know how to score the ball. Defensive efficiency is a little more spotty, but they’re all pretty good (<90 and ranking in the top twenty). The average differential is really high at 37.4 points per 100 possessions, and all of them easily reach the +30 threshold in that regard.
Andy Katz once again had the privilege of visiting President Obama this year to go through his bracket step by step. We like that he didn’t end up with all chalk, slotting Villanova and Kansas State as #2 seeds into the Final Four this year (along with favorites Kansas and Kentucky). You recall that he picked the champion (UNC) in 2009, but he missed on his other three F4 teams — Louisville, Pittsburgh and Memphis, and his first round was pretty much a disaster. One out of four is a pretty good success rate on Capitol Hill, but what was palpable in this year’s version of the unveiling was how much more stressed the environment (and Obama) seemed at the White House. It was almost a little uncomfortable, a painful reminder of the mental and physical rigors of running the country in the midst of a recession. Here’s the clip.
Each day this week during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament we’re asking some of our top correspondents to put together a collection of notes and interesting tidbits about each region. If you know of something that we should include in tomorrow’s submission, hit us up at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.
#8 Texas was once the top team in the nation, but now they are reeling. However, a team trending even worse might be their opponent: #9 Wake Forest. Demon Deacon Head Coach Dino Gaudio saidAl-Farouq Aminu had an x-ray done on his hand and appears to be ready to play on Thursday. Meanwhile, Texas, who comes in having lost seven of their last nine games to teams in the NCAA Tournament, said he is trying to deflect questions that the Longhorns are done this year. “There are people saying Texas is done,” Texas coach Rick Barnestold the Dallas Morning News. “I don’t think our guys have felt like that at any point.” Meanwhile Wake Forest’s last road win against an NCAA Tournament team was their December 5 win over Gonzaga, 77-75.
#5 Temple against #12 Cornell will be the game to watch on Friday to start. The subplot of course is that Cornell head coach Steve Donahue spent ten years as an assistant under Temple head coach Fran Dunphy, who crossed town from Penn to Temple in 2006. Donahue said he purposely does not schedule Dunphy’s Owls for a reason. “See, we would never play each other in a regular season game because it would be torture. In this profession, you want your friends to advance,” Donahue told the Ithaca Journal. “The NCAA tournament is the pinnacle of what you do, so both of us will have to get over that.” Dunphy reflected similar sentiments to the Philadelphia Daily News. “If you had said to me who do you not want to play? Cornell,” Dunphy said about the matchup. “We’re good friends and there is a no-win situation in that.”
#11 Washington, the Pac-10 Tournament champion,had to play to get into the field of 65. Their opponent, #6 Marquette, is not happy about traveling to San Jose to play the Seattle school. “They going to fly, or drive?” Marquette coach Buzz Williams asked the AP of the Huskies’ trip to the neutral site. “I think anytime you play on the West Coast against a team from the Pac-10, you are the underdog.”
#3 New Mexico, the regular season champion of the Mountain West Conference, will have their hands full with #14 Montana’s Anthony Johnson who scored 34 of his 42 points in the second half to clinch their Big Sky championship and NCAA Tournament bid. When asked about his ability, Lobos head coach Steve Alfordtold the AP, “We know he’s extremely talented … a potent scorer.” The Lobos will be playing to try to reach their first Sweet 16 in school history.
#7 Clemson taking on #10 Missouri will be an interesting matchup, guaranteeing an up-tempo pressuring style that Clemson coach Oliver Purnell favors. Missouri coach Mike Andersontold The St. Louis Globe-Democrat, “It won’t be one of those, walk it up and pass it about 20 times or five times. It’s going to be end-to-end. (It’s going to be) some athletic kids hopefully making some athletic plays.”
#2 West Virginia will tip off the NCAA Tournament against #15 Morgan State on Thursday. Coach Bob Huggins did not mince words when asked on whether or not West Virginia should be a top seed. “I thought statistically we were a 1,” Huggins said Sunday to the AP. “The disappointing thing is that when they stand up there and say, ‘Let’s look at the full body of work,’ and if you look at the full body of work, we were probably a 1.” The Mountaineers probably have a case for a #1 seed and will look to come out and show it to start the Tournament.
This is the third of our four quick-and-dirty region breakdowns. This will serve to help the quick triggers who like to fill out their brackets first thing on Monday morning. For the rest of you, we’ll be providing more detailed game-by-game analysis throughout the rest of the week.
Energy Solutions Arena Hosts the West Regional
Region: West
Favorite: Syracuse, #1 seed, 29-4. Jim Boeheim’s Syracuse Orange is the favorite in this region by a good margin. His team has lost their last two games and there are whispers that center Arinze Onuaku may not be available for the first two rounds, but SU is talented enough to survive the first weekend without him (as a comparison, UNC didn’t have Ty Lawson at full strength for the first weekend last year). K-State is realistically the only team in this region capable of standing toe-to-toe with Syracuse in terms of relative talent, but they play too loosey-goosey to actually beat the Orange.
Should They Falter: Kansas State, #2 seed, 26-7. Should Syracuse get upset, K-State is in position to take advantage. With a dynamite backcourt of Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen capable of going off in bunches, the Wildcats could make a run to their first Final Four since the mid-60s. The quality of talent in this region just isn’t very deep, so outside of Syracuse or K-State, who else could realistically win the requisite four games?
Grossly Overseeded: Vanderbilt, #4 seed, 24-8. A team that lost to Western Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina and Mississippi State, none of whom are Tourney teams, should not have gotten a protected seed with only a couple of marquee wins this year.
Grossly Underseeded:UTEP, #12 seed, 26-6. The Miners really didn’t start rolling until they integrated Derrick Caracter into the lineup, but they’ve been fantastic since then. At worst, this team should have been in the #8-#10 range. Instead, they’ll get an opportunity to prove themselves against the annual public darling #5 Butler, where Vegas has UTEP as only a 2.5-point underdog.
Sweet Sixteen Sleeper (#12 seed or lower): UTEP. For the same reasons as above, once UTEP beats Butler, they will also be able to get past #4 Vanderbilt who is probably overseeded, or #13 Murray State, a team they’re simply better than.
Final Four Sleeper (#4 seed or lower): BYU, #7 seed, 29-5. This is an easy one. Everyone knows that BYU is murder to play at home, and if the Cougars can get past their first two opponents (Florida and K-State), then they will have as partisan a home crowd as possible in Salt Lake City to play two eastern teams, either Pitt or Xavier and Syracuse. The problem for BYU will be getting there. They’ve had NCAA first round problems for the better part of two decades, and even though they’re much better than their initial opponent Florida, they’ll need to play really well to beat Kansas State.
From today until Selection Sunday, keep checking Rush the Court for updates on who’s in, who’s out and seeding.
UPDATES ALL DAY TODAY. FINAL BRACKET REVEALED JUST BEFORE 6 PM ET.
(Note: each of the four teams in one seed grouping is listed in pecking order in terms of who is closer to moving up a seed line. This is used to determine game location and matchups similar to Joe Lunardi’s S-Curve listing).
#13 Seeds: Murray State, New Mexico State, Oakland, Houston
#14 Seeds: Wofford, Sam Houston State, Ohio, Montana
#15 Seeds: Morgan State, UC-Santa Barbara, North Texas, Vermont
#16 Seeds: Robert Morris, East Tennessee State, Lehigh, Winthrop, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Last Four In: California, Utah State, Minnesota, Illinois
Last Four Out: Mississippi State, Florida, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall
Bids per conference: Big East (8), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (6), ACC (5), Mountain West (4), SEC (3), Atlantic 10 (3), Pac-10 (2), West Coast (2), WAC (2), C-USA (2).
Coming into conference tournament week there had been a lot of talk coming from the college basketball media that this might be the weakest bubble ever. We are loath to admit it, but they might just be right.
Ticket Punched. Lost in all the mess of the BCS conference also-rans blowing their chances every night is that one team actually earned a NCAA Tournament bid in the last .
Lehigh 74, Lafayette 59. For the 16th time in 20 years, the Patriot League will send its regular season champ to the NCAA Tournament after that same team also won the post-season tournament. In a game that was closer than the final score indicates (Lehigh led by 6 with less than 3 minutes to go), the Mountain Hawks (22-10) earned their 4th trip overall to the NCAA Tournament and first since 2004 behind a strong performance from senior Zahir Carrington’s huge game with 18 points (on 9/11 FG), 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, and 4 blocks while their star freshman C.J. McCollum added 20 points and 7 rebounds. The game between schools just 17 miles apart was the 213th meeting between the schools, but the first time that they played with a NCAA Tournament bid on the line. We would normally rip a player who comes up with something as trite as Carrington’s post-game quote, “No offense to those guys, but they just didn’t want it as bad as we did,” unless they played UConn in this year’s Big East Tournament, but we’ll give him a pass today because of how well he played. What’s next for the Mountain Hawks? Most likely a #16 seed assuming The Committee decides to throw them in the game that shall not be named.
Bubble Burst? Where do we begin? Plenty of teams that would be perilously close to the bubble in a normal year lost games that we would usually call fatal, but that might not matter this year. Yes, Virginia Tech, Florida, and Wake Forest, I am talking about you. This year you will probably get away with it. Memphis, UAB, Arizona State, Rhode Island, Mississippi, Mississippi State, and Seton Hall? You probably will not be so lucky. On the plus side there is a small chance that CBS or ESPN might get a camera on Bobby Gonzalez when the Pirates are not selected. [Ed. Note: If you aren't familiar with Gonzalez's body of work, check out what The NY Times wrote about him recently during his time at Manhattan and at Seton Hall.] If you’re wondering if we left somebody out, you’re right. We’re saving that elimination for its own special section.
Dumbest Play of the Year. Last year we had Jamelle Horne. This year’s recipient may not have made as egregious of an error, but his will ultimately be more costly. Allow me to introduce you to Dayton senior guard Rob Lowery. With his team fighting for its NCAA Tournament life and the game winding down, the Flyers trailed Xavier by 2 points with 33.6 seconds left when Lowery called timeout to set up a potential game-tying play. On his way to the bench, Terrell Holloway slapped at the ball which was still in Lowery’s hands. Lowery responded by swinging/slapping at Holloway and was given a technical. The Musketeers hit their free throws which essentially iced the game and now the Flyers and the uber-hyped Chris Wright will be making plans for a trip to the NIT.
It’s worth noting that while Brian Gregory continued to state that he did not see the play in the post-game press conference and continued to insinuate it was a questionable call one notable player was not made available to the media: Lowery.
Rob Dauster of Ballin is a Habit is spending the week as the RTC correspondent at the Big East Tournament. In addition to live-blogging select games throughout the tournament, he will post a nightly diary with his thoughts on each day’s action. Here is his submission for the late quarterfinal games.
Georgetown 91, Syracuse 84
This performance from Georgetown shouldn’t surprise you. Remember, when healthy early in the season, this team was in the top ten nationally, and for good reason. Austin Freeman’s health situation affected this team more than people realize – Thompson said that was long as the Hoyas “keep Freeman’s levels fine he will be able to perform” – and they are just now hitting their stride again.
You know about Georgetown’s big three, but don’t underestimate Jason Clark. Jeff Goodman called him the “ultimate glue guy” earlier today, and while I agree with him to a point – Clark is a great defender, he can go and get you an offensive rebound, and he racks up some assists – I think by definition a glue guy isn’t a scorer. Clark can be. He hasn’t put up the numbers simply because he doesn’t get a ton of shots, but he is a nightmare to stay in front of and a lights out shooter. Jason Clark isn’t a glue guy, he is a very good basketball player.
The only way Syracuse doesn’t deserve a one seed is if both Duke and Ohio State win their conference tournaments. Otherwise, Syracuse is ok, although they may be headed out west.
JTIII on the Orange: “That team is still one of the best, if not the best team in the country in spite of today’s outcome. Do I expect them to be a dangerous team in the tournament? Absolutely?” Very true, but today may have exposed a flaw in this team - a stopper. Not on the defensive end, but a guy that can get you a basket when things aren’t going well. Can Wes Johnson be that guy? Right now, he is a jump shooter and an athlete.
Marquette 80, Villanova 76
The Golden Eagles shot 65% in the second half. The were 6/6 from three in the second half and 11/18 overall. They had 17 assists and just 8 turnovers. I think it is safe to say Villanova hasn’t solved their defensive issues.
There may not be two more underrated players in the Big East than Corey Fisher and Darius Johnson-Odom. Both were on full display this afternoon. Fisher was impossible to keep out of the lane, finishing with 16 points and 6 assists, while DJO had 24 points, 5 assists, and hit five threes.
Marquette is going to make it out of the first weekend. Put that on the record. This team is so difficult to defend. Hayward and Butler are match-up nightmares for opposing bigs. Their guards can all shoot it, they can all get into the lane, and they all can kick the ball out to an open shooter. Most importantly, everyone on the team understands that they are at their best when they move the ball offensively.
Buzz Williams on Jay Wright: “I think he will be in the Hall of Fame long before his career is over”
The rush of conference awards are rolling in… here are some conference POYs that were announced on Monday: James Anderson, Oklahoma State(Big 12); Jerome Randle, California (Pac-10); Evan Turner, Ohio State (Big 10); Darington Hobson, New Mexico (Mtn West); Kevin Anderson, Richmond (A10). As for conference COY: Matt Painter, Purdue (Big Ten); Steve Alford, New Mexico (Mtn West); Herb Sendek, Arizona State (Pac-10), Frank Martin, Kansas State (Big 12), Fran Dunphy, Temple (A10). The ACC, Big East and SEC are expected to announce their choices on Tuesday.
At the national level, The Sporting News has selected Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim as its national COY, and has listed their all-americans. Their first team has five guards on it — John Wall, Kentucky (also FrOY); Greivis Vasquez, Maryland; Evan Turner, Ohio State; Scottie Reynolds, Villanova; James Anderson, Oklahoma State. Of course, we think that’s cheating, and RTC will have its position-specific AA team later this week. Watch for it.
Next year’s Coaches vs. Cancer Classic will feature Pittsburgh, Maryland, Texas and Illinois as the four regional hosts who are slotted into the semifinals at Madison Square Garden the week before Thanksgiving. This could be a very interesting and talented field if the majority of underclassmen on these teams decide to stick around, as they should. Maryland and Texas lose some key pieces in Vasquez, Milbourne, James and Pittman, respectively, but there are a bunch of really good underclassmen on all of these teams.
Talk about really early entry. Seattle University’s Charles Garcia is wasting absolutely no time in declaring his intention to go pro this spring. Seattle is an Independent, so their season is now over unless the Redhawks are invited to one of the lower postseason tournaments such as the CBI or CIT. What is most notable about Garcia aside from his 19/8 scoring/rebounding average is his ability to draw fouls from the defense. Garcia picks up an astonishing 10.6 fouls per game on his defenders, which as you may imagine, puts the 6′9 forward at the line nearly ten times per game.
As always, here’s some great analytical work from Vegas Watch, who takes an alternative (and much more defensible) approach to seeding the field of 65. Keep fighting the good fight, VW, with logic, reason and most importantly, data.
Rob Dauster of Ballin is a Habit is the RTC correspondent for the Big East Conference.
Season in Review
The Big East regular season ended on Saturday, and I think it is safe to say that the league had a bit of an unpredictable season. Don’t believe me? Show me a season preview that had Syracuse winning the league, Pitt getting a double-bye, UConn playing on Tuesday, and with South Florida and Notre Dame finishing above UConn and Cincinnati. See? Unpredictable.
But what does that mean? Was the Big East better from top to bottom than it was last year? Did teams like Marquette, USF, and Notre Dame benefit from a down year? The one thing that is for sure is that the top of the Big East is nowhere near the top of last year’s Big East. Five Sweet 16 teams and three No. 1 seeds is a pretty phenomenal feat. But last year the conference only sent seven teams to the tournament, and there is a very good chance that number will be surpassed this season.
The way the Big East bubble is shaping up right now, five teams are in – Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Pitt and Georgetown. Louisville and Marquette should be ok, but a loss on Wednesday and things could get dicey depending on how the rest of the bubble plays out. If Notre Dame happens to lose their first Big East Tournament game (to either Seton Hall or Rutgers), then the Irish could be in trouble as they will likely be right on the cut line. That gives us eight that are reasonably safe.
It is possible, however, for the Big East to get two more teams in. If today was Selection Sunday, then Seton Hall may actually be in the tournament. While they have 11 losses, the average RPI of the team’s that have beaten the Pirates is 26 and they have not lost to a team with an RPI below 64. Add into that mix that the Pirates have wins over Louisville, Notre Dame, Pitt, at Cornell and an RPI of 53. Its not a great profile, but its a very weak bubble this year. That could be enough. The other team that still has a shot of an at-large bid is UConn, simply because the Huskies have more good wins than most of the bubble teams. That said, they also have 14 losses. UConn will likely need to make it to the Big East semis for any kind of real shot at a bid.
The Big East Conference released their all-conference teams today, and there isn’t much there that I disagree with. (Note: there are six players on the first team because one of those six will win POY; POY, COY, and ROY will be announced on Tuesday between Big East Tournament sessions)
Close Calls. In two closer-than-expected games, #12 Michigan State and #18 Pittsburgh held on to their positions in the Big Ten and Big East, respectively, with quite a bit still on the line. For MSU, it’s a shot at a shared Big Ten regular season title; for Pitt, it was a double-bye in the Big East Tournament next week.
#18 Pittsburgh 73, Providence 71. In a closely contested game throughout, it was Ashton Gibbs who saved Pittsburgh from what would have been their worst loss of the season at full strength (the IU loss in December was without several players). With 3.5 seconds remaining, Gibbs (25/4/3 assts) received the ball at the right hash mark on the opposite end of his basket, took two dribbles before stopping and pulling up from about 28 feet to drain a game-winning three at the horn. The bucket moved the Panthers to 12-5 in the Big East, and with a win over Rutgers this weekend in combination with a Villanova loss to WVU, the preseason-unranked kids from the Steel City would be the #2 seed in next week’s Big East Tournament. Simply amazing considering the talent in that league this year.
Ashton Gibbs: "I Got This." (PPG/M. Freed)
#12 Michigan State 67, Penn State 65. We’re really not going to fall into this trap that Tom Izzo likes to set for us seemingly every year. His teams always win a bunch of games, but many of those wins seem to come by a mere point or two, and they also lose a few more than you might expect. Then the Spartans get into the NCAA Tournament and the very same players who were somewhat underwhelming during the regular season put it all together for another run to the Final Four. So we’ll reserve judgment on this year’s MSU team until we see what happens later this month. Tonight Penn State had the ball with five seconds remaining but they were unable to get a shot off to win or tie the game. With the win, MSU moves to 13-4 in the Big Ten and the Spartans will host rival Michigan this weekend to try to tie Ohio State (and possibly Purdue) for the top record in the league.
Should Washington Join the Bubble Conversation Along With Ole Miss, Dayton and Arizona State?
Washington 86, Oregon 72. With an RPI of #53, twenty wins, and a better strength of schedule than its bubble peers Mississippi State and Virginia Tech, shouldn’t the Huskies at least be in the conversation? They’ve beaten Texas A&M, Portland and Cal, which is a resume of quality Ws at least as good as Mississippi State (best win: Old Dominion), Dayton (best win: Xavier) and Virginia Tech (best win: Clemson). We’re well aware how down the Pac-10 has been this year, but just because everyone has already seemed to decide that it’s a one-bid league shouldn’t make it necessarily so. The resumes need to speak for themselves, and we’re having trouble understanding the difference between the above teams. Quincy Pondexter had 34/10/6 assts in tonight’s win.
RTC Live returns to Madison Square Garden for a late season Big East match between two teams who started the conference season with very different ambitions and expectations. Pittsburgh, picked by the conference coaches to finish ninth, ran up a 5-0 record to start the Big East season, but they have gone 5-5 in their last 10 games, including a sobering 68-51 beating in South Bend earlier this week. Early season talk of not missing a beat has given way to speculation on whether they can hold onto a bye seed in the Big East Tournament. The Panthers are slotted #13 on Joe Lunardi’s S-Curve, which makes them a #4 seed in the East Region, as of Lunardi’s February 22 bracket. Playing their Sweet Sixteen game (assuming they make it out of the first weekend) game in Syracuse is about as good as it gets for Pitt, and a second, consecutive loss would jeopardize their standing. The Johnnies were projected to finish #11 in the Big East, and more than a few St. John’s fans complained about lack of respect from the conference coaches. Going into this weekend the Red Storm languishes at #13 in the conference, seemingly unable, even with a squad well stocked with upper classmen, unable to escape the dreaded “last four” in the Big East. A win this late is the season is valuable to both teams. This is a head-to-head matchup between two teams who attack and defend the low post very well. Join us as two teams who will not be afraid to go body-to-body in the low post go blow for blow and possession for possession in the Garden. This is good old fashioned Big East basketball.
As the season winds closer to a conclusion and Selection Sunday approaches, a bracket snapshot each Monday just doesn’t quite seem adequate. From now until the end of the year, we’ll be providing a Friday seed update that outlines where each team inside and just outside the field of 65 currently stands along with reasoning why certain teams changed seed number since the previous Monday.
(Note: each of the four teams in one seed grouping is listed in pecking order in terms of who is closer to moving up a seed line. This is used to determine game location and matchups similar to Joe Lunardi’s S-Curve listing. Auto bids marked in italics).
#1 Seeds: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Purdue
#2 Seeds:Duke, Kansas State, Villanova, West Virginia
#3 Seeds: Georgetown, New Mexico, Ohio State, Pittsburgh
#4 Seeds: Vanderbilt, BYU, Temple, Wisconsin
#5 Seeds: Michigan State, Gonzaga, Butler, Baylor
#6 Seeds: Texas, Xavier, Texas A&M, Tennessee
#7 Seeds: Wake Forest, Richmond, Maryland, Northern Iowa
Hummel’s Knee Buckles — Did Purdue’s Season?#3 Purdue 59, Minnesota 58. Thirteen minutes into this game, Purdue star forward Robbie Hummel drove to his right into the paint, stopped, and squared his shoulders to the rim. Simultaneously, his right leg slipped a little causing his knee to buckle and give out from underneath him. It wasn’t a gruesome injury, but it was certainly forboding. People say they hate to speculate about someone’s injury, but they proceed to do it anyway, so we’ll avoid those niceties here. It looked like and his reaction certainly belied what we believe was an ACL injury in his knee: The inability to initially put weight on the knee; the severe pain immediately after the fact, yet the ability to stay on the bench for the remainder of the game; the crutches; the need for an MRI as soon as possible. We really hope we’re wrong about this, but as someone who has had a couple of these tears ourselves, we sorta think we know it when we see it. If Hummel is out for the rest of the season (and Gary Parrish reports that there’s not much optimism to the contrary coming out of the Boilermaker camp), then despite the heart and grit and skill we saw on display tonight at Minnesota, a phenomenal season will without question reach a premature conclusion. There is absolutely no way that Purdue can go to the Final Four without Hummel in the lineup. It’s not as if he’s a dominant player in the mold of Kenyon Martin (broken leg in 2000) or Derek Anderson (torn ACL in 1997), but he’s an extremely important piece of what Purdue does, and there simply isn’t enough time (or elite talent) to re-craft a plan for life post-Hummel. As a microcosm of this unfortunate truth, look at what happened tonight. Purdue was leading 26-14 when Hummel got hurt. After his injury the Boilermakers scored two more FGs in the next twelve minutes of action. Obviously, Matt Painter will have time to adjust his game plan in coming days and the recent emergence of Keaton Grant (10/5/4 assts) doesn’t hurt, but Hummel is such a multifaceted piece of the Purdue attack that someone like him cannot just be plugged in overnight. The aforementioned Grant was huge down the stretch tonight, and we expect that more will be asked from the talented duo of E’Twaun Moore (11/3) and JaJuan Johnson (14/10), but it’s going to take some really good luck in the form of tomorrow’s diagnosis for Purdue to have a chance to fulfill its lofty goals this season.
Let's All Hope For the Word "Sprain" for Hummel (AP/J. Wheeler)
No Harangody, No Problem. Notre Dame 68, #16 Pittsburgh 53. The Irish came off the schneid in a big way tonight even with its star Luke Harangody still sitting on the bench with a knee bruise injury. The high-scoring offense slowed down its attack, finding that running down the shot clock resulted in better looks from three, of which the Irish nailed 10-18 this evening. Pitt, on the other hand, was never able to find the mark from deep, going 4-18 from three and even getting killed on the boards (-10), unusual for a Jamie Dixon-coached team. Perhaps the Panthers were a little worn out from playing and beating WVU, Marquette and Villanova in their last three games, but it was to ND’s benefit as the Irish took control early and never relented. Mike Brey’s team still has significant work to do before we start talking about NCAA again, but this was a big step in the right direction.
***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game
Dayton @ #18 Temple – 6:30 pm on A-10 (****)
All the Dayton fans who thought that the Flyers had locked up a bid when they beat Charlotte by 28 turned out to be sadly mistaken. After losses to Saint Louis and Duquesne, the Flyers are again on the bubble and probably would be on the outside looking in if they lose tonight at Temple. Dayton has been an enigma this year having beaten solid teams like Xavier and Charlotte while having some horrendous losses in conference play. They only have two players scoring in double figures, and they also only have two players averaging more than 1.9 assists per game. Their offense is also ranked just 105th in efficiency, yet they have shot well over 40 % in each of their last seven games, a stretch in which they went just 4-3. For the Owls, their main problem is their inconsistency as they are one of the most erratic three-point shooting teams in the country. Against Richmond, they were just 1/10 followed by a 6/6 performance against Rhode Island then a 2/15 effort against Saint Joe’s. One of the biggest things the Owls have going for them is that they are playing at home, where they have beaten Villanova, Xavier, and Rhode Island this year. However, if Dayton shoots close to 50 %, and Temple struggle from the 3, the Flyers might be able to save their at-large status for at least one more game.
Pitt may not have the longest winning streak in the country right now, but nobody has been more impressive than the Panthers over the past three weeks. They have won five straight games, with victories against West Virginia, Marquette, and Villanova in their last three contests. The Panthers are now just two games out of first place in the Big East, and could be a # 3 seed in the tournament by the time selection Sunday rolls around. The Irish, on the other hand, are looking at another NIT bid after blowing a golden chance to reach 20 wins before their last stretch of the season against several tough teams. After losing three close games to mediocre teams in Seton Hall, St. John’s, and Louisville, they are now 10th in the conference. Going back to their loss at Rutgers in January, Notre Dame’s last four losses have been by a combined seven points. Luke Harangody, who may be one of the more under-appreciated players in the country due to his team’s record, will be out for the game and may not come back the rest of the season. Unless he returns up soon, the Irish have no shot at the tournament. With Ashton Gibbs playing so well for Pitt (he has scored at least 20 points in three of the last four games) the Panthers look to be unstoppable right now, and should send Notre Dame to a fourth straight loss.
***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game
#12 Ohio State @ #11 Michigan State – 12 pm on CBS (****)
Kalin Lucas Leads the Spartans Against OSU
The Buckeyes blew a golden opportunity to advance in the Big Ten standings when they lost at home to Purdue last week, but they have another great chance this afternoon against possibly the best team in the conference. They are still only one game behind the Spartans in the standings, and if they can beat Michigan State on the road, they are once again in the running to win the Big Ten title. In addition to potentially deciding the conference champion, Big Ten player of the year honors may also be on the line, as Evan Turner will try to wrest the POY award away from Kalin Lucas. Both players have suffered injuries this year, but appear to now be at 100% for this game. With Turner in the lineup, the Buckeyes are a completely different team with his ability to create shots for himself and find open players. They rank #13 in offensive efficiency, and are third in the country in two-point field goal percentage, so the Spartans may have a tough time defending them (MSU is #41 in defensive efficiency). These teams play different styles, as OSU uses a guard-heavy lineup and three of MSU’s top scorers are forwards, so I expect the Spartans to exploit the Buckeyes in the paint. Among Ohio State’s top four scorers, no player is taller than Turner at 6’7, so Raymar Morgan and Draymond Green may tryto carry their team at home. Michigan State is 13-1 at home this year, and shoots over 53% from inside the arc, so look for the bigger team to take one step closer to a Big Ten title.
#3 Villanova @ #19 Pittsburgh – 12 pm on CBS (****)
If somebody told you two weeks ago that entering the Villanova vs. Pitt game, one of these teams would be coming off a loss and the other was in the midst of a four-game winning streak, that wouldn’t surprise too many people. What does surprise fans is that the losing team is Villanova, while the Panthers seem to be firing on all cylinders. Pitt had lost four of their five games from January 20 to February 3, but now has wins over three quality teams since that slump, with victories over Seton Hall, West Virginia and Marquette. These teams have not met since their classic last year in the NCAA Tournament, when Scottie Reynolds sent the Wildcats to the Final Four with a last second shot. Reynolds has carried his great play into this season, and shoots 49% from the field, an impressive percentage for a smallish guard. Pitt’s Ashton Gibbs, on the other hand, had no points in their last game against Marquette, and will have to be a contributor for the Panthers to have a chance in this game. This contest may come down to Villanova’s unbalanced play, as they rank fifth in offensive efficiency but are #68 in Pomeroy’s defensive rankings. Their points per game is also deceiving, as they only rank 45th in field goal percentage, so look for the Panthers to at least give Villanova a run for their money at home.
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2010 ncaa tournament | Tagged: arinze onuaku, ashton gibbs, brad wannamaker, brian zoubek, bryan davis, cal, california, chris kramer, coach k, cornell, dallas lauderdale, dante jackson, derrick favors, devin ebanks, donald slaon, donald sloan, duke, e'twaun moore, evan turner, gani lawal, georgia tech, gilbert brown, gonzaga, greivis vasquez, jajuan johnson, jamal boykin, jason love, jeff foote, jermaine dixon, jerome randle, jim boeheim, joe mazzulla, jon diebler, jon leuer, jon scheyer, jordan crawford, jordan taylor, jordan williams, justin safford, kalin lucas, keaton nankivil, keith ramsey, kenny frease, kevin jones, khris middleton, kim english, kyle singler, landon milbourne, laurence bowers, louis dale, louisville, marcus denmon, mark few, mark turgeon, maryland, matt painter, michigan st, mike anderson, mike montgomery, missouri, ncaa tournament, nolan smith, ohio st, patrick christopher, pittsburgh, purdue, robbie hummel, robbie hummell, ryan wittman, siena, syracuse, terrell holloway, texas a&m, thad matta, theo robertson, trevon hughes, utah state, wellington smith, west virginia, wisconsin, xavier | 
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