The Most Likely Giant Killer on Each Seed Line #12-16
Posted by Tommy Lemoine on March 15th, 2018Let’s review the most likely upset scenarios on each of the seed lines of #12 through #16 this year.
#12 Seed: New Mexico State over Clemson. All four #12 seeds are dangerous this year and it wouldn’t be surprising if any one (or several) pulls off an upset. But if you’re only taking one — and there almost certainly will be at least one — roll with New Mexico State. For starters, the Aggies feature uncommon length and athleticism for a mid-major program, meaning they shouldn’t be at a physical disadvantage against Clemson. Next, the combination of rebounding machine Jemerrio Jones (13.2 RPG), a deep frontcourt and an aggressive scorer in Zach Lofton (19.8 PPG) makes it difficult to envision New Mexico State being completely shut down by the Tigers’ stout defense. At the very least, the Aggies should see their fair share of second-chances. What’s more, the Tigers are just 7-6 since losing second-leading scorer and rebounder Donte Grantham (14.2 PPG, 6.9 RPG) on January 20, failing to score over one point per possession five different times during that span. New Mexico State’s defense is elite in its own right, ranking 15th nationally in efficiency while limiting opponents to the sixth-lowest effective field goal percentage. And don’t forget: the Aggies have already beaten a quality ACC opponent (Miami) by nine points back in December.
Avoid this one: South Dakota State over Ohio State. Make no mistake: Mike Daum and the Jackrabbits are most certainly capable of winning the game. But Ohio State coach Chris Holtmann seems to be playing the “us against the world” card, which should give you pause.
#13 Seed: Marshall over Wichita State. “Hillbilly Ball” rolls into San Diego for what could be a memorable NCAA Tournament. According to KenPom, Buffalo and UNC Greensboro would actually be better picks, but considering Marshall’s style of play — uptempo, three-point heavy, run-and-gun — this could be a recipe for an upset. Wichita State is not an especially great defensive team this season, and opponents have proven capable of beating the Shockers from behind the arc and at the free throw line — the two areas where Marshall generates most of its points. Oklahoma, which is stylistically similar to the Thundering Herd, attempted 40 three-pointers en route to a road win at Wichita State in December. You might say Jon Elmore (22.8 PPG, 6.9 APG) is Marshall’s version of Trae Young, and you might see some March magic happen if he and his supporting cast get hot.
Avoid this one: Buffalo over Arizona. The Bulls are a good, veteran team with surprising athleticism. According to KenPom, they even have a 29 percent chance of pulling off the upset. But really: Who’s going to slow down DeAndre Ayton? USC, which has substantially more size than Buffalo, certainly didn’t have an answer.