Rush The Court

Player Name: Solomon Alabi

School: Florida State

Height/Weight: 7’1, 251

NBA Position: Center

Projected Draft Range: Mid-to-late first round

Overview: Solomon Alabi is was born in Nigeria, and grew up playing soccer. However, when it became apparent that he wasn’t going to stop growing, he was told he could earn a scholarship to play basketball in the United States so he took up basketball when he was 15. He came to the U.S. in 2005, attended the Monteverde Academy in the Orlando area (the same school that former UCLA star Luc Richard Mbah a Moute attended) and eventually wound up at Florida State. His freshman season was cut short when he needed to have surgery on a stress fracture in his right tibia, but in the last two seasons in Tallahassee, he has been a model of hard work and improvement. In nearly every area, Alabi’s numbers have improved over his career at Florida State, where he averaged a career best 11.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG and 2.3 BPG last season. He also improved his free throw shooting (which was an early weakness) to the point where he shot nearly 80% from the line last season.

Alabi is Very Raw But Has Great Potential

Will Translate to the NBA: It’s true that you can’t teach height, and of that, Alabi has plenty. Add to a legit 7’1 frame a monstrous 7’5 wingspan and decent leaping ability and Alabi is an intimidating presence in the lane. And, aside from improving his offense numbers on a yearly basis at Florida State, he also put on weight and strength every year. Given his height, he is a good shot blocker, able to block shots while defending one-on-one in the post or coming over on help defense. Offensively, Alabi is a work in progress, but with his improving free throw percentage as evidence, he is capable of knocking down a mid-range jumper on occasion when in rhythm. Aside from all that stuff, Alabi is also generally described as a gregarious personality, a great teammate and a hard worker.

Needs Work: A lot. If Alabi is drafted in the first round, it will be mostly on potential. While he constantly improves (he has only been playing the game for seven years), he still looks a bit wooden out there, lacking fluidity in his post moves. Though his turnaround jumper has improved, it still needs work and a jump-hook and some post moves would be necessary for him to become even a mediocre offensive talent in the League. Even more alarming is that despite his massive frame and decent athleticism, he is a dramatically poor rebounder for his size, something that will need to change before he’ll have a chance at serious NBA minutes. Defensively, Alabi can be exposed by perimeter-oriented big men who can pull him away from the hoop and then exploit his lack of lateral quickness by driving on him.

Comparison Players: Guys like DeSagana Diop, Hasheem Thabeet and Samuel Dalembert are reasonable comparisons, players with a lot of height who can patrol the middle and block shots, grab some rebounds and aren’t much of an offensive threat otherwise — that’s the expectation for Alabi. And, given Thabeet was a #2 pick last season, getting Alabi in the back end of the first round shows either that Alabi is a great value or that Thabeet was an extreme reach.

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Gerry Floyd is a longtime ACC fan and guest poster who feels strongly that the conference needs to get back to its roots in the next wave of expansion mania. 

With the seemingly constant banter about the Big 10′s imminent conference expansion, Atlantic Coast Conference commissioner John Swofford has said that he will not be `the aggressor’ during a summer in which potential moves will forever change the landscape of college athletics.  This is a big mistake.  Swofford needs to step up and take expansion by the horns.  With the potential of conference realignment looming from coast to coast, it only makes sense for the ACC to be proactive with these changes.  But instead of letting football dollars guide the decision-making, Swofford has a golden opportunity to come at the inevitable from a different perspective and instead alter the college basketball landscape for the better.

Commissioner Swofford Should Be Proactive Here

It is understandable that the driving force behind every conference expansion is football, and rightfully so.  College football brings in huge amounts of revenue that are not only used for athletic purposes but also for academic research opportunities at those universities.  This is very important for every ACC member institution and it makes sense that they should try to harness as much revenue as they can so their institutions can flourish.  But instead of focusing on expanding (or not expanding) for college football why not take a different approach to the usual football expansion?  To do this, the ACC must step back and take a look at the ACC’s overall product.  The conference’s primary business advantage over every other conference in America is its rich basketball tradition that includes a high level of competitiveness, passionate basketball fanbases and a strong presence in the national media regarding the sport.  Ask anyone in California or Michigan the first thing they think of when hearing ”ACC,” and the immediate response will be “basketball.”   Therefore, instead of scouring for leftover football revenue in an oversaturated football market, the ACC should stay true to its roots and take a stranglehold on the college basketball market.

Every conference wants to be considered foremost a ‘football conference’ because of the amount of money that the sport brings in, and the expansion of the ACC in 2003 to include Boston College, Virginia Tech and Miami (FL) was a brilliant maneuver that brought the ACC a football conference championship and all the revenue that goes with it.  But the truth is the ACC is in its best year the fourth or fifth strongest BCS football conference in America and expansion isn’t likely to change that fact (the Big Ten, SEC and Big 12/Pac-10 hybrids would likely get stronger).  Since 2003, the league has only won one of its BCS bowls (Virginia Tech over Cincinnati in 2008), and the last four BCS bowls with the lowest television ratings all featured an ACC team.   On the other hand, in the seven years since expansion the ACC has had three national basketball championships and six Final Four appearances.  Business as usual on the hardwood.

The ACC has long represented the essence of college basketball; it is the conference filled with thoroughbred athletes and teams that every other league still measures itself by annually.  But since the latest football expansion the league has lost some of that advantage.  The ACC Tournament was once the “hottest ticket” in the country, but now the tournament is just another ticket before the NCAA Tournament begins a week later.  This could be due to Duke’s tournament dominance over the past decade, or (more likely) the front office in Greensboro turning its back on the one sport that makes the ACC marketable.  The goal of the ACC should not be to pressure football into a basketball-rich conference but to expand on its quality attributes in college basketball.  Any expansion should be done to enhance the ACC’s overall television market, seeking to improve its college basketball image and competitiveness without losing any revenue or market share in college football.

See, There's a Divison Right There

Please understand that the next proposal is not suggesting that the ACC should expand before the Big 10, but the league should be open to expansion ideas and proactive in considering conference realignments.  By sitting back and waiting, the ACC as we know it runs the risk of either become irrelevant or extinct.  Assuming the Big Ten doesn’t, the ACC should therefore extend invitations to West Virginia, Syracuse, Connecticut and Pittsburgh (Louisville would also be another viable candidate).  By adding these four teams the ACC will finally gain much of the New England television market that Boston College was unsuccessful in delivering.  With a sixteen-team league that stretches up and down the entire eastern seaboard (and the tens of millions of people living in that footprint), an opportunity would arise for the ACC to pursue a television network much like the Big Ten Network.  Most importantly from a brand perspective, this type of expansion would provide growth in the level of basketball competition while suffering little to no decline in football competition.

After expansion the sixteen institutions should be separated into two divisions (North & South) and four subdivisions (for example:  North Atlantic, North Coastal, South Atlantic, and South Coastal):

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Andrew Murawa is the RTC correspondent for the Pac-10 and Mountain West Conferences and an occasional contributor.

Overview

College sports fans dodged a major bullet last week when the NCAA announced that the men’s basketball tournament would only be expanding to 68 entrants, rather than the 96-team field that had been widely rumored. However, the face of college sports as we know it is still in jeopardy, as the specter of widespread conference realignment still looms, with the much-speculated-upon expansion of the Big Ten as the key domino that could start a wave of changes leaving the college sports landscape drastically altered.

The elephant in the room issue is the consolidation of power away from the existing six BCS conferences and into a smaller number of “superconferences” with the possibility looming that once any realignment sorts itself out and we’ve got four 16-team conferences, those conferences break away from the NCAA and form their own structure. As Kansas athletic director Lew Perkins puts it: “At some time, the major conferences are going to have their own quasi-NCAA. They’re going to do their own thing.” Former Syracuse AD Jake Crouthamel was even more specific, saying that eventually the Big Ten, ACC, SEC and Pac-10 would expand and ultimately leave the NCAA, even to the point of forming their own competing basketball tournament: “If you look at the history of what’s been going on for the last decade, I think it’s leading in that direction.”

We Promise It Won't Get This Complicated

The potential expansion of conferences detailed below is not the first shot fired in the consolidation of power, but the next step in an already-existing series of moves that has widened the financial gap between the biggest athletic departments and the rest of the supporting cast. And, as those at the top get bigger and bigger, the underdogs not only fall behind in terms of funding, but they may ultimately be left completely behind: no more Boise State and Utah to steal BCS bowl spots from big-money institutions during the winter, and no more Butler and George Mason sneaking into the Final Four in the spring. While that type of doomsday scenario is still several decision points down the line, what happens in the Big Ten over the next twelve months or so could be the monumental tipping point to drastically move things in that direction.

At present, the most widely rumored targets for Big Ten expansion are Pittsburgh, Rutgers and Syracuse from the Big East and Nebraska and Missouri from the Big 12, although as always occurs when the Big Ten thinks about expansion, Notre Dame is in the mix and likely their number one choice. With the Pac-10 also in the midst of contemplating expansion within the next year, these moves could send a ripple effect throughout all of the Division I conferences causing some conferences to get bigger, others to contract, and even some to disappear.  While the specifics remain conjecture and speculation at this point, there are enough common-sense scenarios out there to fuel theories to create one of the most helter-skelter flowcharts ever seen. We’ll take a look conference-by-conference at what could happen, and what kind of fallout might be created by each move, starting with our eleven midwestern friends.

Big Ten

Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany confirmed last Wednesday that his conference is considering not only expanding to 12, but also perhaps even 14 or 16 teams. While some of the rationale for the expansion would be the addition of a football championship game for more revenue, the accumulation of more content and more markets for the Big Ten Network is probably more important to their plans. Delany noted that while discussions for this expansion are ongoing, the 12-18 month timetable that was originally announced in December is still the current framework.

Starting with the first domino, there is little doubt that the Fighting Irish would be the Big Ten’s first choice and the most logical fit for the conference, in terms of geography, academics and, frankly, football. Notre Dame and the Big Ten have flirted with each other many times in the past, but there is likely a greater chance that they will consummate their relationship this time around than any time before. For the Big Ten, the attraction is obvious: a huge fan base in historic “Big Ten country,” a ton of athletic history, and excellent academics. For Notre Dame, however, the question is a lot tougher. The Irish have been a football independent throughout their history and current athletic director Jack Swarbrick recently said that their “highest priority is maintaining football independence.” Notre Dame is currently in the middle of a television contract with NBC for the rights to broadcast home football games, a contract that runs through 2015 and an issue that will need to be confronted somehow if the Irish are eventually invited and accept Big Ten membership. The amount of the NBC deal (about $15 million annually) is not prohibitive enough to prevent them from considering membership in the Big Ten, whose member schools currently receive about $20 million annually from their television contracts. It is even possible that if the Big Ten and Notre Dame can come to an agreement, all this expansion talk will end right there: Notre Dame joins up, the Big Ten stops at 12 teams, the Big East poaches a team from CUSA like Central Florida as an additional football school and geographic partner to South Florida or a basketball-only school from the A-10 like Rhode Island or Massachusetts and the end-of-the-world scenario is averted. At present, however, it is being reported that Notre Dame is not being considered in the Big Ten’s expansion plans (a report that nobody in their right mind believes), but if Notre Dame is interested, the Big Ten will certainly be interested as well.

Figure 1: Big Ten Best Case Scenario

However, it is also realistic that with or without Notre Dame, the Big Ten is aiming for 14 or 16 teams to become the first superconference. While the addition of teams such as Missouri and Nebraska makes the most geographic sense, this expansion thing is not really about logic but about dollars, and Delany seems most interested in all the potential viewers that the bigger east coast markets present — notably Rutgers and Syracuse, but also Pittsburgh and potentially Connecticut. Adding three or even all four of those schools would effectively kill Big East football as we know it and potentially damage the Big East basketball enough to persuade a fence-sitting Notre Dame to leap off onto the Big Ten side as well. Swarbick himself admitted in March that “there are things that are large enough to challenge our ability to remain independent and remain in the Big East.” All four (or even three) of those flagship Big East programs bolting for the Big Ten could be one of those “large enough” things.

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1. As of Midnight ET last night, the NBA Draft early entry deadline had passed.  Most of the big names had already thrown their hats into the ring, but there were a few last-minute additions over the weekend.  Most notably, Florida State’s Solomon Alabi entered his name on Friday, representing the last likely first rounder who had remained on the fence.  Temple center Lavoy Allen has decided to test the waters, choosing to not sign with an agent while gauging what he needs to work on next year.  These two and all 758 of the others will now have fourteen days (until May 8) to make a final determination as to whether they’re staying or leaving, which is great for us but a little tight during exam time for them to get reliable information.
2. Oregon fans are coming to terms with the arrival of Dana Altman in Eugene and his high-intensity, pressing style of play.  As we said on Saturday, we believe this is a good hire for the next seven years for the Nike Duck program, even if not everyone was initially thrilled with this decision.  Altman may get an early shot to build good will with a win over visiting #1 Duke at the Rose Garden in the pre-conference schedule, it turns out.
3. And this is yet another example of why we shouldn’t allow people who don’t understand the game of basketball (and college basketball in particular) anywhere near our game (see: Malcolm Gladwell).  We love March Madness because it’s like American Idol?  Just.  Stop.
4. We hope to have something more substantial up about all the potential conference realignment spurred by the Big Ten’s rapacity soon, but for now many others have plenty to say on the matter.  One commentator points out that the league has been the butt of jokes in recent years, but nobody is laughing at it now, while another points out that four sixteen-teams conferences from sea to shining sea could result in a football Final Four for the ages.  Speaking of the gridiron, one thing is crystal clear to everyone — whatever happens, basketball tradition and rivalries will be an afterthought, a real shame given how hoops powers with little to no football tradition are being forced into decisions based on a sport that matters less to them.  Meanwhile, to really cap off your Monday morning, how about discussing a future doomsday scenario where those four super-conferences break off and hold their own version of March Madness someday.  Honestly, we’re not even sure we could continue RTC if that were to happen.
5. Michigan State is breaking out new unis starting next year.  The “State” we’ve all become accustomed to on the front has now been replaced with “Spartans.”  What do you think?

We Always Thought That "State" Thing Was Presumptuous Anyway

Alright, we’re through with three-fourths of the first round, and it’s time for the Friday night session.  This round of games always has some interesting television matchups as CBS tries to maximize interest in the after-work crowd.  We’re going to be tracking all of the games but we’ll move around to the most interesting ones as appropriate.  Here’s the lineup:

• #8 Gonzaga vs. #9 Florida State
• #7 Oklahoma State vs. #10 Georgia Tech
• #1 Duke vs. #16 Arkansas-Pine Bluff
• #5 Michigan State vs. #12 New Mexico State
• #1 Syracuse vs. #16 Vermont
• #2 Ohio State vs. #15 UC Santa Barbara
• #8 Louisville vs. #9 California
• #4 Maryland vs. #13 Houston

Let’s tip it off and see where it takes us…

7:15:  FSU-Gonzaga has already started and Gus Johnson is just waiting to explode over something.  I think that he senses this game might be his best chance tonight, with Vermont-Syracuse at his venue next.  One piece of news is that Norm Roberts has been fired at St. John’s, making him the second NYC-area Big East coach to be let go within the past few days.

7:21: So far, Gonzaga offense >> FSU defense.  A 9-0 run by the Zags has given them a nice early margin.  Georgia Tech is pitching a shutout over on the other channel, 6-0 so far.  With both of those ACC teams, you’re never really sure what you’re going to get.  So far it looks like “good” GT and “bad FSU.”

7:31: Goodness, the Seminole offense is ugly.  If they get themselves down too far here, they’re never going to be able to come back.  Quick aside, I was just thinking about this and they confirmed it.  The Big 12 is 5-1 right now, with the lone loss coming with Texas in overtime against Wake Forest.  The others: Big East (3-3), SEC (2-2), Big Ten (3-1), A10 (1-2), MWC (2-2), ACC (1-1).

7:37: The Zag offense is smokin’ hot right now – well over 50% from the field.  This one isn’t looking very good for FSU whatsoever.  Focusing over on Ga Tech-Oklahoma State for a while, which is at 15-15 at the moment.  Our sense on this game was that it would be a close game with OSU pulling it out at the end.  We’ll see whether that rings true.

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Each day this week during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament we’re asking some of our top correspondents to put together a collection of notes and interesting tidbits about each region.  If you know of something that we should include in tomorrow’s submission, hit us up at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.

South Region Notes (Patrick Sellars)

• Duke and guard Nolan Smith don’t think they’ll have an easy path to Indianapolis even though all the “experts” agree that Duke has the easiest road to the Final Four of the number one seeds. Smith said, “This is the NCAA tournament, there’s no such thing as an easy path.”
• California, who was considered by many a lock to make the Tournament, was not feeling at ease after the first three brackets were announced and their name was yet to be called. Head coach Mike Montgomery thinks with his team at full health they will be a very tough out for anyone in the tournament.
• If there was any doubt that Old Dominion was coming in confident against Notre Dame it should be washed away after reading this New York Times article on their upset victory. I know it is obviously after the fact, but Frank Hassell, ODU’s leading scorer, said “We really weren’t worried about them or Luke (Harangody). We were worried about us.”
• Another “after the fact” article, but here is a nice interview with Baylor head coach Scott Drew on being in the NCAA Tournament and how he handles each game. Baylor survived a scare from Sam Houston State, which is a big deal because the #14 seeds were on their game today, and it’s Baylor’s first NCAA Tournament win in 60 years.
• With Omar Samhan in foul trouble Saint Mary’s head coach Randy Bennett went to his bench to look for someone who might be able to fill the void, and he went to a player used sparingly during the regular season. The San Francisco Chronicle looks at the freshman’s role in SMC’s big win.
• The Philadelphia Inquirer looks at Villanova’s stingy victory over Robert Morris and Jay Wright’s decision to bench star guards Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher to start the game. Wright also said “If we can win this next game and get some practices, we’ve got a chance to be better. But I don’t know if we’re ready for this next game.” That’s music to the ears of all Saint Mary’s fans. What has happened to the Villanova Wildcats?
• Overall the South Region is exactly what everyone though it would be, which is that its Duke’s region to win. With Baylor and Villanova both struggling against double digit seeds it looks as if the Blue Devils are now the heavy favorites. However, the NCAA Tournament is all about surviving and advancing, one day your team can beat a #14 seed narrowly, the next thing you know they’re in the Final Four (ex: Villanova 2009).

West Region Notes (Andrew Murawa)

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Each day this week during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament we’re asking some of our top correspondents to put together a collection of notes and interesting tidbits about each region.  If you know of something that we should include in tomorrow’s submission, hit us up at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.

East Region Notes (Ryan Restivo of SienaSaintsBlog)

• President Barack Obama picked Kentucky to lose in his bracket’s final game but Coach John Calipari is worried about just getting momentum. “Land the plane. Survive and advance,” Calipari told Chris Low of ESPN. “That’s all we’re thinking about. We’re not worried about the score and who scores and what. Just land the plane and move on.” To that end, East Tennessee State lost by ten to Pitt last year as a #16 seed in the first round. Can they be the first to pull off the historic upset?
• Perhaps both Texas and Wake Forest should just throw out their recent struggles.
• Temple is only favored by 4 points over Cornell. Meanwhile Lafayette head coach Fran O’Hanlon has worked with both coaches and is rooting for both.
• Would professors at Wofford dare to not pick the Terriers over Wisconsin in their office pool? And apparently message boards hounded Badger junior Tim Jarmusz earlier this season as he moved from starting forward to coming off the bench.
• Washington’s Isaiah Thomas has a broken bone in his shooting hand, which is why he wears a glove.
• Last year Marquette’s players shaved their heads in solidarity, but this time they got a different haircut.
• New Mexico’s Darington Hobson is predicting a run to the regional finals. Meanwhile the New York Times has a great profile on Montana’s Anthony Johnson.
• Is this Mike Anderson’s best coaching job at Missouri?
• West Virginia is looking to beat Morgan State after losing to Dayton as a #6 seed last year.

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Over the next two days in a series of separate posts, RTC will break down all 32 of the first round games using our best analytical efforts to understand these teams, the matchups and their individual strengths and weaknesses.  Our hope is that you’ll let us know in the comments where you agree, disagree or otherwise think we’ve lost our collective minds.  Here are the Friday evening games.

7:10 pm – #8 Gonzaga vs. #9 Florida State  (Buffalo pod)

This is a very tough game to call, so let’s start with what we know about it.  The Zags, no stranger to cross-country travel, come into Buffalo after an 11-day layoff where St. Mary’s took Mark Few’s team behind the woodshed and beat them handily in the WCC Tournament championship.  Florida State comes in having dropped its quarterfinal game against NC State in an effort that had their fans shaking their heads in disgust.  So needless to say, both teams are looking for a fresh start here.  The Zags are always dangerous, and this year’s squad led by Matt Bouldin and Elias Harris has the offensive firepower to score with just about anyone in America.  Merely an ok three-point shooting team, they tend to rely on the drives of Harris and mid-range game of Bouldin to create offense.  However, they don’t tend to respond well to teams that crowd and push them around, but unfortunately, FSU is just such a team.  The Seminoles enjoy the nation’s top defensive efficiency, and while they have the opposite problem of finding points, they should have no problem putting the clamps down on the Zag scoring options.  The question here comes down to whether the FSU defense, anchored by 7’1 Solomon Alabi and 6’9 Chris Singleton’s combined four blocks per game, is better than the Gonzaga offense, and we think that it is.  And as up/down as the Seminoles were in the ACC, they never came close to losing to the likes of Loyola Marymount and San Francisco, as Gonzaga did this year.

The Skinny:  The Zags this year aren’t quite as good as they usually are, and they’re facing a team that will shut down their biggest strength.  FSU wins this one by eight points to get a date with Syracuse.

7:15 pm – #7 Oklahoma State vs. #10 Georgia Tech  (Milwaukee pod)

Here’s another one that’s got people confused.  For good reason, too.  All year long we’ve been waiting on Georgia Tech to do something with all that talent, and now they’re playing better basketball, just in time.  Oklahoma State’s showing against Kansas State in the Big 12 Tournament will cost them some support, but we’re going to excuse that performance.  That was a tired basketball team, playing their third game in a six day span with K-State at the end of it — and the Wildcats were coming off of a five-day rest.  Georgia Tech is going to go inside to Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal like crazy, but when the Yellow Jackets actually shoot the three, they shoot it well.  Defending the three is a glaring OSU weakness, so it will be interesting to see how often Georgia Tech eschews their big men in favor of launching it from the arc, because those shots will be there.  So…good outside shooting, great inside players…sounds pretty good for Tech, right?  The question will be whether or not they can get to that point in their offense.  Georgia Tech ranks in the bottom twenty of Division I teams in terms of turning the ball over.  Can the Jackets, then, find a way to keep James Anderson from shredding them or Keiton Page from raining threes?

The Skinny: Oklahoma State won’t have to exert too much energy guarding the three, since Tech’s propensity to turn the ball over will take care of some of that.  The Cowboys have been getting more and more help from their role players, and we feel 9-7 in the Big 12 is better than 7-9 in the ACC this year.  It’ll be a great first round game, but we like Oklahoma State in a close one.

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This is the third of our four quick-and-dirty region breakdowns. This will serve to help the quick triggers who like to fill out their brackets first thing on Monday morning. For the rest of you, we’ll be providing more detailed game-by-game analysis throughout the rest of the week.

Energy Solutions Arena Hosts the West Regional

Region: West

Favorite: Syracuse, #1 seed, 29-4.  Jim Boeheim’s Syracuse Orange is the favorite in this region by a good margin.  His team has lost their last two games and there are whispers that center Arinze Onuaku may not be available for the first two rounds, but SU is talented enough to survive the first weekend without him (as a comparison, UNC didn’t have Ty Lawson at full strength for the first weekend last year).  K-State is realistically the only team in this region capable of standing toe-to-toe with Syracuse in terms of relative talent, but they play too loosey-goosey to actually beat the Orange.

Should They Falter: Kansas State, #2 seed, 26-7.  Should Syracuse get upset, K-State is in position to take advantage.  With a dynamite backcourt of Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen capable of going off in bunches, the Wildcats could make a run to their first Final Four since the mid-60s.  The quality of talent in this region just isn’t very deep, so outside of Syracuse or K-State, who else could realistically win the requisite four games?

Grossly Overseeded: Vanderbilt, #4 seed, 24-8.  A team that lost to Western Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina and Mississippi State, none of whom are Tourney teams, should not have gotten a protected seed with only a couple of marquee wins this year.

Grossly Underseeded:UTEP, #12 seed, 26-6.  The Miners really didn’t start rolling until they integrated Derrick Caracter into the lineup, but they’ve been fantastic since then.  At worst, this team should have been in the #8-#10 range.  Instead, they’ll get an opportunity to prove themselves against the annual public darling #5 Butler, where Vegas has UTEP as only a 2.5-point underdog.

Sweet Sixteen Sleeper (#12 seed or lower): UTEP.  For the same reasons as above, once UTEP beats Butler, they will also be able to get past #4 Vanderbilt who is probably overseeded, or #13 Murray State, a team they’re simply better than.

Final Four Sleeper (#4 seed or lower): BYU, #7 seed, 29-5.  This is an easy one.  Everyone knows that BYU is murder to play at home, and if the Cougars can get past their first two opponents (Florida and K-State), then they will have as partisan a home crowd as possible in Salt Lake City to play two eastern teams,  either Pitt or Xavier and Syracuse.  The problem for BYU will be getting there.  They’ve had NCAA first round problems for the better part of two decades, and even though they’re much better than their initial opponent Florida, they’ll need to play really well to beat Kansas State.

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Steve Moore is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic Coast Conference.

The ACC Update finally returns after a few weeks away due to uncontrollable fried-laptop-related issues. But before we start looking ahead to this week’s ACC Tournament, I want to take a quick look back.  Late Friday night, with my laptop still fried and my shiny new MacBook not yet purchased, I found myself flipping channels in the wee hours of the morning. I was so bored, that I even ventured outside my HD comfort zone to find ESPN Classic. With the Duke-UNC game the following night, the channel was airing prior “classics” in the rivalry. Of course, I came across the final five minutes of regulation in the epic February 2, 1995 affair.

In case you need a refresher: Duke was 0-7 in the ACC at the time, while UNC was LOADED with stud players, like Rasheed Wallace and Jerry Stackhouse, and ranked #2. Jeff Capel’s one-footed 3-pointer at the buzzer tied the game, and sent Dickie V into a insane frenzy.  Considering I was 12 years old at the time, there were many things about that game that I forgot, and that made it unbelievably fascinating:

• Duke was left for dead, trailing 26-9 at one point in the first half and by as many as seven in the final minutes. As they continued to fall behind, I actually kept checking to make sure this was the game I thought it was.
• Hindsight is easy, as they say, but Cherokee Parks just looked like one of those great college players who would never materialize in the pros. He was dominant inside, but really unathletic.
• If UNC had hit even one or two free throws down the stretch, Capel’s shot never would have happened.
• Dickie V questioned the decision at the time, and I agree wholeheartedly — why wouldn’t Dean Smith put any UNC players on the lane to rebound the final free throws? He had a terrible foul-shooter at the line, and by giving Parks a free rebound and hand-off to Capel, he gave Duke at least a second of time and probably 20 extra feet of court. Even if UNC doesn’t rebound it there, at least Wallace or Stackhouse could have put a body on Parks or Capel.
• Finally, I gained an even greater (if that’s possible) appreciation for today’s video and production quality. This game was only 15 years ago, but for someone used to HD, 30 camera angles, and excellent sound quality, this might as well have been in black and white. Replays were scarce, there appeared to be three cameras in the entire gym, and the lack of a constant score and gameclock on the screen was jarring to say the least.

Anyway, I just found that interesting, and was jotting down notes as I watched. Now let’s jump ahead to 2010. We’ll take a quick look at each matchup, and even toss out a few meaningless predictions. First, let’s examine the NCAA Tourney fates of our ACC friends:

BOOKING TRAVEL PLANS

• Duke, Maryland, Florida State and Virginia Tech are absolutely in at this point.

SAFE AND SOUND

• Wake Forest and Clemson probably shouldn’t go out and lose in the first round, but otherwise, both the Deacons and Tigers are safe bets.

DON’T CHOKE…

• I’m looking at you Georgia Tech. You are just too talented to even be on the bubble at this point. But if you don’t take care of lowly North Carolina on Thursday (and I can definitely see a UNC stunner), you are NIT-bound.

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Large Wednesday.  It was a big-time night of games, the kind of evening that has you checking the clock all day long in nervous anticipation.  Most of the games ended in predictable fashion, but that didn’t make them any less interesting.  To get this out of the way, ranked teams #3 Kentucky, #6 Purdue, #10 New Mexico, #13 Tennessee, #15 BYU, #16 Temple, #17 Wisconsin and #24 Texas A&M all won, most easily.  UNM won the Mountain West title outright, and Kentucky grabbed at least a share of the SEC title tonight.  We’ll focus on the biggest games, the key games of bubbular interest, and the conference tourneys in this space tonight, though.

• #2 Kansas 82, #5 Kansas State 65. ESPN got lucky that this game was only interesting for about thirty minutes tonight.  At the 15:39 mark of the second half, K-State’s Luis Colon hit a layup to pull the Wildcats back within one point, and we thought this battle between Big 12 stalwarts was destined to go down to the wire in Lawrence.  We were wrong.  Kansas seemingly awakened from its halftime slumber and went on a quick 9-0 run to open its lead back up to double digits.  KSU made one more push to get it back to six, but the Jayhawks used a 13-1 run to put the game away for the 59th consecutive time in Allen Fieldhouse.  The Kansas defense, virtually nonexistent in their loss at Oklahoma State on Saturday, was back in action here, holding their in-state rival to 40% shooting and limiting the opponents not named Denis Clemente or Jacob Pullen to a mere 24 points.  The old barn was rocking as Kansas won the Big 12 regular season outright and likely wrapped up a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament as well, but we’re not completely certain because we could hardly see the action on our ESPN360 feed.  KU walks into a trap game at Missouri on Saturday, while K-State should still finish second in the league with a win over Iowa State this weekend.

Sherron Collins: Winningest Player in KU History (KC Star/R. Sugg)

• #23 Maryland 79, #4 Duke 72.  The better big game of the night took place in College Park, as Maryland outlasted Duke in a back-and-forth contest that resulted in the Terps tying the rival Blue Devils at the top of the ACC standings with one game remaining.  Ultimately, it was Gary Williams’ team, led by the animated and spectacular Greivis Vasquez (20/4/5 assts), who broke a 69-all tie with two minutes to go and ended the game on a 10-3 closing run.  In particular, it was Vasquez’s running, fading, only-the-kind-of-shot-he-would-take-and-make jumper that gave Maryland a four-point lead with 39 seconds left and forced Duke to start fouling soon thereafter.  We really shouldn’t read too much into one result in a rivalry game, so we won’t, but one thing is very clear in that Maryland has been playing the better part of two months much, much better than their ranking might 0therwise indicate.  Since the new year turned, the Terps have only lost at Wake (when WFU was playing well), Clemson and Duke.  That’s it.  Pollsters have been holding four nonconference losses against them, but if Maryland isn’t a top four seed in the NCAA Tournament, then we haven’t seen one.  As for the regular season title, the Terps will play in a trap game at Virginia this weekend, while Duke will actually have the easier home game against rival UNC.  If both win (or lose), then Duke will win the top seed in the ACC Tournament, but suffice it just to say that these two are clearly the best two teams in the ACC.  Now, about that RTC, Terp fans…  we love the quick, full coverage of the court, and we know it’s been a few years since you last beat Duke, but, what if you’re the better team?

Huge Bubble Games.

• Notre Dame 58, Connecticut 50. There’s absolutely no question that the Irish are playing better without all-american Luke Harangody than they were with him.  Notre Dame won its third straight game over a solid team to put themselves squarely back into the NCAA picture, but with an RPI in the 60s, a win over Marquette this weekend and another in the Big East Tourney are needed.  The Ls keep piling up for UConn (13 now), but how long can you hide behind the excuse of a tough schedule and some big wins before you cut them out of the picture?
• Florida State 51, Wake Forest 47.  Wake is busily playing itself from a projected #4 seed to outside the field in a short span of two weeks with the Deacs’ fourth straight loss tonight.  Al-Farouq Aminu had a ridiculous zero-point, five-foul performance in the loss, and with a game versus surging Clemson on Sunday, Wake could be staring at five Ls in a row to end the regular season.
• Memphis 70, UAB 65.  In a battle of CUSA bubble teams, Memphis was able to get a big win while also wrapping up the #2 seed in next week’s Conference USA Tournament in Tulsa.  In most mock brackets, UAB is the second team out of this conference, but now Memphis has swept the season series between the two.  It will be interesting if they meet again in Tulsa with Memphis taking a third game as well.

Helped/Hurt Themselves.

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Contributing writer Kevin Chupka will periodically interview a rabid student fan about all things basketball on the court and in the stands… a view from the student section.

Cullen & Friends Ready to Push FSU Back to the NCAAs

Florida State is probably known more for its work on the gridiron than on the basketball court, but that doesn’t stop a group of basketball loving students from packing “The ‘Nole Zone” for every home game at the Donald L Tucker Center.  Matthew Cullen, a senior at FSU, is the president of this rabid fan section. “The Nole Zone is home to the rowdiest, most passionate Florida State basketball fans,” he says.  “The Nole Zone certainly does their collective homework,” Matthew adds, “we’re always quick to let an opponent know what we think about how their season is going.”

The Seminoles have rebounded nicely this season from their stint as the dreaded 12/5 upset victim in last year’s NCAA tournament (their first such appearance in a decade), bowing out to Wisconsin on a last minute shot in overtime.  This year Cullen admits that “losses at rival Florida and in the home ACC opener to NC State were disappointing,” but they have shown flashes of greatness in knocking off rival Georgia Tech in both meetings and handing Virginia Tech one of their three conference losses this year.  So what does the rest of the season hold? “Runs in both the ACC and NCAA Tournaments are certainly not out of the question for this year’s squad,” Matthew thinks.  But it might be easier said than done. Many analysts have just about the entire middle of the ACC on the bubble meaning FSU must jockey for position with the likes of Maryland, Clemson and Virginia; the last two of whom they are scheduled to play in the final weeks of the regular season. 

So who will FSU be counting on in the home stretch? “It’s really been a well-rounded team effort,” he says, “but it’s a trio of sophomores that stand out. 7’1 center Solomon Alabi leads the team in scoring, blocks and free throw percentage, where he’s better than 82 percent. Forward Chris Singleton has really developed his game. He’s second in scoring and blocks, and brings a defensive edge with his team-leading 48 steals. I’d also throw in Devidas Dulkys, the sophomore out of Lithuania. He’s an excellent three-point shooter, as well as a great defender who is second on the team in steals.”  And Matthew says the team as a whole has some work to do, namely on turnovers, “We turn the ball over too much… and often become hesitant and tentative in our play. Limiting turnovers and careful execution of the offense will be essential keys to returning to the Dance.” 

Still, hopefully improvements in the final weeks of action along with sustaining what Cullen calls “our suffocating style of play” on defense, the ‘Noles very well might be dancing and looking to turn around the upset tables come late March.

1. Want to know what’s wrong with UNC this year?  One ACC coach laid out all of the dirty laundry about Roy Williams’ team in an interview with the Washington Post.  Since the coach was speaking as someone who had faced Carolina once already this season, and the article came out Saturday morning, this means that it was one of the following four: Seth Greenberg (Virginia Tech), Paul Hewitt (Georgia Tech), Oliver Purnell (Clemson), Sidney Lowe (NC State) or Dino Gaudio (Wake Forest).  Lowe lost to the Heels in their only game and Gaudio still seems too new to make those kinds of statements about that program, even anonymously.  That leaves Greenberg, Hewitt and Purnell, and our money is on Greenberg.  For some reason it just sounds like him (and the WaPo probably has a closer relationship with him than the others).
2. Florida State announced on Sunday that they will be vacating wins from ten sports that involved 61 athletes accused of academic misconduct during the 2006-07 academic year.  Most of the news will focus on football coach Bobby Bowden losing 12 wins from his career total, but of interest to us is that the basketball program will lose all 22 of its wins from that year as well — one from the ACC Tourney, and two from the NIT.
3. Based on everything that Isiah Thomas says here about his lack of interest in the LA Clippers job, we fully expect him to see him stalking the sidelines (and the interns!) at the Staples Center next season.
4. NCAA 96: a voice of reason on expansion of the NCAA Tournament from an unlikely source, the Commissioner of the Big Ten, Jim Delaney.  The key takeaway from his discussion with TSN is ‘let’s learn more about this.’  Exactly.  The more time spent talking to stakeholders as well as THE FANS is simple but seemingly missing from this idea — it helps to remove avarice from the equation and gives reasoned consideration to the premise that just because an idea will be profitable makes it a good thing.
5. Pat Forde writes that if the COY award were handed out today, there would be no doubt who should win it – Jim Boeheim.  He won’t get any argument from us.  Syracuse received 83 votes in the preseason AP Poll (good for 31st) and 111 votes in the ESPN/Coaches Poll (25th).  The Orange are now 23-1, leading the Big East Conference, and could potentially be Boeheim’s best team ever.  That’s right.  Look through this list and find a better team.  It’s hard to do.

Thursday Night Doldrums.  There weren’t a lot of great games on paper tonight, and it turned out to be the case in reality as most of the marquee games were average at best.  We’ll break down the biggest two games, and just highlight the others.

Purdue Didn’t Choke, But Kelsey Barlow Did.  #7 Purdue 78, Indiana 75.  The one exception tonight was this game in Bloomington between the surging Boilermakers and the home Hoosiers.  These two teams went back and forth for thirty-eight minutes before a 5-0 run keyed by Robbie Hummel (21/7) and E’Twaun Moore (14/5/3 assts) put Matt Painter’s team in position to win at IU for the first time since the 90s.  Indiana had a shot to tie the game at the buzzer, but Verdell Jones III’s  (22/6/4 assts) shot from around 40 feet missed the mark, and Purdue won its fifth straight game prior to the big showdown with Michigan State next Tuesday.  JaJuan Johnson had a big night with 21/7, and as we’ve discussed in this space before, when the big man is putting in the work, Purdue is a much better team.  He’s gone for 18/8 a night during the Boilers’ five-game winning streak; in the previous three-game losing streak, he put up an average of 6/5.  Obviously Matt Painter and his guards want to keep Johnson happy.  As for Indiana, their second-consecutive loss on the final possession stings, but it’s further evidence that Tom Crean’s team isn’t all that far from competing in the Big Ten.  We’d suppose that one year from now IU will be winning these close games.  Final note: starter Kelsey Barlow will undoubtedly be suspended as soon as Matt Painter sees the below image (taken in the final moments of the game).  Brilliant move, that one.

When Will Kelsey Barlow's Suspension Begin?

Dud in Durham.  #9 Duke 86, #19 Georgia Tech 67. This was fairly close until three minutes left in the first half, at which point the Blue Devils turned up the defense a couple of clicks and began to separate themselves from the Yellow Jackets.  The one thing Tech couldn’t afford was to let Duke hit a three at the end of the half and make it a double-digit lead, so when Jon Scheyer found Kyle Singler in the corner for a trey as the buzzer sounded, you didn’t need a Magic 8-ball to predict the Jackets’ second half.  Georgia Tech got in early foul trouble and never came close to finding a rhythm against the Devils, who looked comfy at home as usual.  You would never have known that it was the Yellow Jackets who came in with the nation’s fourth-best defense (holding opponents to 37% shooting per game).  Duke shot holes through that with tremendous ease, and got big games they needed from Singler (30/5 on 9-17 shooting) and Scheyer (21/7 assts), not to mention a helpful 11 boards from Lance Thomas in a performance that was frankly better than their current #9 ranking.

The Rest of the ACC.

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A good discussion on twitter today about how to rank the top four (all one-loss) teams.  Here’s our version, with analysis after the jump:

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1. Some day-after analysis of South Carolina’s big upset over #1 Kentucky on Tuesday night…  a night that cost the Gamecocks $25k for the RTC (well worth it, if you ask us).  Jeff Goodman thinks the loss shows that the field is wide open this year, Pat Forde was really impressed by Devan Downey (like Calvin Murphy-impressed), and Gregg Doyel can’t get over the fact that Kentucky raised over a million bucks for Haiti.
2. Memphis will plead for leniency before the NCAA Infractions Appeal Committee in Indianapolis on Friday regarding the Derrick Rose scandal and those 38 vacated wins.  We’re not likely to know anything until four to six weeks after the hearing, however.
3. What was going on up in Seattle on Tuesday night with the ridiculous number of fouls in the Washington vs. Seattle game, which UW won 123-76?  Cameron Dollar’s Seattle Redhawks were hit with FORTY-FIVE personal fouls, and actually had to play the last 1:32 of the game with only four players on the floor.  Folks, they had more fouls than rebounds.  Soooo, let’s put this in perspective… the same team that defeated Oregon State by 51 just lost by 47 to Washington, and both Pac-10 teams are basically sharing space at the bottom of the conference standings.
4. Jim Boeheim: stand-up comedian.  Yeah, everything is funny when you’re 20-1 and ranked in the top five. 
   
5. As if there was ever any question about this, we noted something a little odd about a television glimpse of Dookie V’s grandson who was attending the  Duke-Florida State game at Cameron Indoor Stadium last night.  We’ve obscured the little guy’s face to protect the young/innocent, but given this outward display of partisanship by his family, how can Dick Vitale ever again say with a straight face that he’s capable of calling a Blue Devils game fairly?

Little Dookie V.

Hummel vs. Turner.  Ohio State 70, #6 Purdue 66.  Evidently Robbie Hummel got tired of hearing about how great Villanova’s Scottie Reynolds was last night.  My favorite tweet last night from a hoop-o-phile friend came in two parts: “What do Robbie Hummel and a Swarthmore sorority have in common?  They both have a lot of threes.”  Hummel came out and hit eight shots from behind the arc in the first half, setting off a chain reaction of texts, tweets, and phone calls that rivaled the second half of Tennessee vs Kansas a couple of nights ago.  Hummel tied a school record in the first half — meaning a record for a whole game — with his eight treys, also adding a two and, for completeness’ sake, a trio of free throws to end the half with 29 points, equaling Ohio State’s output for the half.  That’s right.  At halftime, it was OSU 29, Robbie Hummel 29.  Here’s the problem, though.  The rest of the Purdue squad contributed only 12 points in the first half on five field goals.  The halftime lead was 41-29, and if you were watching this one you never felt like the Buckeyes had been put away.  You also saw Evan Turner get a little more confident in his movement and ability to take contact with each trip down the floor.  In the second half it was almost like Turner was waiting to see how much his teammates would contribute before wresting control of this game.  And that he did.  This thing looked like a done deal just before the under-4 TV time-out with Purdue up 62-52.  Turner then went on a 14-0 run by himself, and in doing so, not only put OSU in a position to win with a 64-62 lead, but vaulted himself back into the talk for Player of the Year…as one of the two favorites.  OSU simply outhustled Purdue down the stretch and, with Turner solidly back as master and commander, were effectively unfazed by Purdue’s tight defense in both the half- and full-court sets.  Purdue never so much as tied the score after Turner’s 14-0 run.  Two William Buford (19/7) free throws with 16 seconds left closed the scoring and sealed the unlikely Buckeye victory.  Robbie Hummel’s first half was legendary, there’s no question.  And it had a lot of flash (something you don’t necessarily think of when you think of Purdue basketball), since 24 of the 29 points were from threes.  We don’t mean to drag down Hummel’s 35/10 night, but Evan Turner had 23 of his 32 in the second half, and considering whom he did it against, where it was done, and the fact that he did it while playing all 40 minutes with two bones still healing in his spinal column, we think it’s an easy call to say that Turner’s second-half 23 was more impressive than Hummel’s first-half 29, even though that probably won’t be the popular opinion.  There’s one thing on which everyone can agree, though, after what we saw from Evan Turner tonight: his backbone is not to be questioned.

Turner is Back

Kentucky Remains Unbeaten.  #2 Kentucky 89, Florida 77.  In an era of college basketball where many teams (even in the Top 25) have barely a single serviceable point guard, John Calipari’s team boasts two.  Everyone knows about the spectacular John Wall, but it might just be his backcourt mate Eric Bledsoe who has the longer-lasting impact on the UK program (think: Brandan Wright’s vs. Tyler Hansbrough’s careers at UNC).  Tonight Bledsoe scored in just about every way imaginable — driving, twisting layups, mid-range jumpers, three-pointers — as he dropped 25/7/5 assts/3 stls on a Florida team that appears to be going nowhere fast.  Think about how far this Gator program has fallen since the “04s” left Gainesville.  With a record of 11-5 (0-2 SEC) and an RPI rating in the 80s (and dropping), a third straight NIT is looking like a realistic possibility.  When is it acceptable to openly question whether Billy Donovan simply caught lightning in a bottle with that spectacular recruiting class to win back-to-back national titles in 2006 and 2007?  It’s utterly ridiculous that he hasn’t been able to sustain the success of at program after winning back-to-back (it’s not like we’re asking for F4s; a simple NCAA second round would be nice at this point).  As for Kentucky, the Cats moved to a still-perfect 17-0 and broke a five-game losing streak in Gainesville tonight while shooting 52% and answering every run that Florida made (including the start of the game when the fans were wild, and a late run to tie the game at 72-all).  We’re on record as saying that when UK loses (and they will), it will be in a situation where the young players are not focused because they do not respect the opponent — they were clearly focused for Florida.  John Wall added 19/4/6 assts and Patrick Patterson had 15/7, while Florida got 20/4 from Erving Walker who almost singlehandedly brought the Gators back into the game late.  According to Pomeroy, UK will be favored in every game it plays until February 16 at Mississippi State, but we have a sneaky suspicion that one of these ‘lesser’ teams will give the Cats their first loss (@ South Carolina is our best guess).

More Upsets!

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How did the Upset Weekend impact our poll this week?  Since so many teams lost, there wasn’t all that much relative movement.  Analysis after the jump…

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Welcome to College Park where we at RTC will once again be courtside as the Florida State Seminoles meet up with the Maryland Terrapins. It will be the ACC opener for the Terps, who have not quite lived up to expectations this season. With a senior-duo in the back court, including all-american Greivis Vasquez, and a couple of talented wings, Maryland was expected to be a top 25 team this season. But Gary Williams club is just 1-3 against major conference foes, the only win being against Indiana, and alos has a loss to William & Mary on their resume. Florida State, on the other hand, comes into this one with a 13-2 record, having already beaten Georgia Tech on the road in ACC play. The Noles have length and athleticism for days, but their back court can be suspect at times. There are going to be two keys to watch for tonight: How will FSU’s back court handle the pressure (Maryland has been using a 2-2-1 3/4 press the last month or so) the Terps bring, and will the much smaller Terps (FSU goes 7’0″, 6’9″, 6’9″ across their starting front line) be able to compete in the paint.

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist plus author of the weekly Ten Tuesday Scribbles and Bubble Watch columns.

With college football crowning another faux-national champion Thursday night in Pasadena, the college sports scene can officially shift its axis to basketball. While a number of college basketball diehards such as yours truly were knee-deep in mid-major box scores and enthralling non-conference tournaments since the season tipped off in mid-November, it’s perfectly understandable for our college football-fan brethren out there to have been entranced in the gridiron scene during this time. For many folks out there, college basketball truly begins when a football champion is crowned and conference play heats up, when Rece and the gang show up on our TVs every Saturday morning at 11 AM and the bubble begins to take its early shape. For those people, you sure missed plenty of exciting hoops action. To get you caught up in what has gone down thus far on the hardwood, here’s a summary for your enjoyment, divvied up into the six major conferences and all the rest:

ACC

What we’ve learned: There was much back-and-forth debate entering this season whether Duke or North Carolina represented the class of this conference. After two solid months of play, it’s fairly evident Duke has separated themselves from their bitter rival as the class of the ACC. While the Tar Heels may top Duke skill-wise up front, Carolina simply does not boast the backcourt to even contend with the Dukies’ tandem of Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith. The primary knock on Duke heading into this season was point guard play with Elliot Williams transferring to Memphis. As a true sharp-shooting 2-guard who creates his shots coming off screens in Redick-like fashion, could Scheyer handle the responsibility of running the Duke offense? The answer has been resounding in the affirmative: 19.7 PPG, 46% FG, 92% FT, 43% 3pt and an otherworldly 4.8 A/TO ratio that currently leads the nation. Another key to Duke’s early season success has been Coach K’s willingness to adjust his defense to fit his roster. Rather than employing the normal Duke on-ball pressure attack, Krzyzewski is utilizing more of a sagging defense that plays into the frontcourt depth Duke enjoys with six players that receive time at 6’8 or taller.

Scheyer Has His Devils Looking Great This Season

What’s still to be determined: After Duke and Carolina (and let’s not go overboard following the Heels loss to Charleston, they’re still clearly the second best team in this conference), who will emerge as the third contender behind the top two dogs? An ever-shifting proposition, the current edge probably goes to Florida State despite their utter lack of point guard play. The Seminoles are one of the tallest teams in the nation and have a few capable long-range shooters that get open looks when defenses collapse on Solomon Alabi and Chris Singleton. Plus, they’re off to a head start with a December win at ACC foe Georgia Tech. Plenty of folks think Clemson could be that team behind powerful big man Trevor Booker, but they lack a second scoring option and I can’t stop thinking back to their collapse at home to an inexperienced Illinois squad. It would be unwise to count out Gary Williams, and the jury’s still out on Virginia Tech and Miami due to their soft schedules, so I’ll give the current edge to Wake Forest as that third team. The road win at Gonzaga’s on-campus arena stands out, Ish Smith has turned into a fine point guard and Al-Farouq Aminu has as much pure talent as anyone in this conference.

NCAA Locks: Duke, North Carolina.

Likely bids: Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest.

Bubble teams: Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech.

Make other plans for March: Boston College, North Carolina State, Virginia.

Big East

What we’ve learned: The NCAA picture is shaping up quite similarly to last season when Louisville (regular season champion), Pittsburgh and Connecticut all received #1 seeds. There will be much back-and-forth debate about whether the top three teams this season — Syracuse, West Virginia and Villanova -- holds the edge in this conference, but does it really matter? Right now you’d be hard-pressed to find someone who doesn’t think Kansas, Texas, Kentucky and Purdue are the likely #1 seeds (of course plenty could change, we have two months of games left), while those top contenders in the Big East are likely all on the second seed line. Even of greater importance though is the obvious revelation that Jamie Dixon can coach basketball. You wouldn’t be alone if you counted out Pittsburgh following a near-loss to Wofford, a 47-point output at home vs. New Hampshire and a second half butt-kicking at the hands of Indiana, but those losses came without their most athletic player, Gilbert Brown, and their best defender, Jermaine Dixon. Those two have returned to action with the most improved Big East player Ashton Gibbs (who recently broke the all-time Pitt record for consecutive free throws made) as a fearsome trio that has carried the Panthers to road wins over previously-undefeated Syracuse and fringe-top 25 Cincinnati. If Dixon is able to coax his Panthers into a NCAA Tournament team after losing such enormous production and leadership in Sam Young, DeJuan Blair and Levance Fields, there is little debate on his merits as National Coach of the Year.

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