Thursday, March 18 (all CBS)
12:20pm - Florida vs. BYU
12:25pm - ODU vs. Notre Dame
2:30pm - Murray St vs. Vandy
2:45pm - SHSU vs. Baylor
2:50pm - St. Mary's vs. Richmond
4:45pm - UTEP vs. Butler
7:10pm - UNI vs. UNLV
7:20pm - Wash vs. Marquette
9:35pm - Wake Forest vs. Texas
9:40pm - New Mexico vs. Montana
9:45pm - SDSU vs. Tennessee
Pardon the baseball reference, but we know that if a guy’s throwing a no-hitter you’re not supposed to talk to him about it. In fact, you’re supposed to just stay away from him, let him sit in the dugout alone, and act like nothing special is happening. We don’t go for such superstitions around here, so let’s check out the teams that are currently undefeated in their conferences, and who has the best chance to actually pull off a perfect conference campaign.
Last season, there were only two teams that streaked through their conference schedules without a blemish — Memphis went 16-0 in the CUSA, and Gonzaga tallied a perfect 14-0 in the WCC. Memphis kept it going three games into this conference season, but back on January 20th UTEP showed the Tigers that they were having none of that, and snapped Memphis’ conference winning streak at 64 games. The Zags stumbled ten days later at San Francisco after winning their first six WCC games this season.
Can Aldrich, Collins, and the rest of the Jayhawks run the conference table?
Right now (before Thursday night’s games), there are no less than eight teams with perfect conference records. We list them here along with the next time they’ll put it on the line, and our prediction as to when they’ll drop their first conference game — if at all:
If it wasn’t being asked before, it sure as heck is now. The biggest question in college hoops on this day — the Day After Kansas versus Texas facsimile-of-Texas — is what exactly has happened to the Longhorns. This former 17-0 and top-ranked team has now lost five of their last seven, including consecutive defeats at the hands of their most bitter rivals, Oklahoma and Kansas. With the exception of Damion James, the rest of the Longhorn squad has entered this part of the conference season with not even anything close to the spark with which they began the season. Kansas did their part in living up to the bargain of the Kansas-Texas game hype. Why not the ‘Horns?
James needs more floor time and more touches
From here, we see two levels to the recent backslide in Austin. First, Texas has three star freshmen in Avery Bradley, J’Covan Brown, and Jordan Hamilton, all of whom play substantial minutes and take a good chunk of the shots for the Longhorns. In Texas’ five losses, though, those three have shot only 47-146 (32%), and this accounts for over a third of the team’s shots in those games. In their last five wins, they’ve shot 68-139 (49%). When you have a team that relies heavily on freshmen, you invite this kind of inconsistency. We’re sure he’s addressing the issue in practice, but Rick Barnes can right this ship rather quickly if he can get his freshmen to buy in to the concept of taking not only fewer shots on the whole, but better ones. The two starting seniors, James and Dexter Pittman, can also help with this. James is only averaging 29.7 minutes in a given contest; Pittman (a 67% shooter from the field) is on the floor for an average of 19.7 MPG — not even a half. Having big-time freshmen is great, but it’s time for the Longhorns to rely on their seniors, and it’s time for those seniors to demand the basketball.
The second tier to Texas’ recent woes is more abstract. As we alluded to in our most recent ATB, this is the time of the season when players hit the wall (especially freshmen). They forget the fundamentals, they forget the little things that need to be done to win. Yes, there is a chicken-and-egg aspect to this question, but when you start settling for threes early in the shot clock and stop getting the ball to your 67% shooters and your POY candidates, you’re just going through the motions. When you’re the top rebounding team in the nation — Texas averages 40.8 RPG as a team, the best there is — and you stop boxing out, then you’re mailing it in. Ask yourself — is what we’re seeing now the same Texas team as the one from the first 17 games of the season that attacked their opponents on all fronts and put teams away early? Are they attacking the boards with the same ferocity? We say no on all counts. Telling fact even though they pull down the most rebounds of any squad in the game, in their losses (and even in recent wins) their opponents have kept up with them on the glass or even out-rebounded them. Texas can help their cause by getting back to the little things, and especially the things they already do well.
We’ll be the first to admit that these fixes that we’re recommending sound pretty simple — calm down the freshmen, get the ball to your seniors on the inside, get back to fundamentals, care more about what you’re doing — but even when dealing with complex problems on a team, the best solutions are often the simplest ones. We know Barnes is preaching this stuff in practice. We’ll see if the Longhorns are listening. If they’re not, teams will continue to find it pretty easy to mess with Texas.
The recent report from Sports by Brooks relaying information from an insider ESPN source claiming NCAA Tournament expansion to 68 or 96 teams was a “done deal” caused tremendous frustration and anxiety amongst college basketball diehard fans and followers. The complaints are numerous and completely fair: the regular season would be rendered basically meaningless, the conference tournaments utterly ruined, the NCAA tournament field watered down to the point of being a joke. Fans are irate at the thought of destroying the greatest sporting event known to man. To confirm just how ridiculous the bracket would be if the tournament expands by 31 teams, here’s the rough layout of which teams would be dancing in a hypothetical 96-team field if the season ended today:
That's One Sad Bracket
Teams very comfortably in the field (#65-#73)
#65: Connecticut- 13-9 (3-6), 0-5 in true road games, 2-6 vs. RPI top 50
#66: South Carolina- 13-8 (4-3), losses to Miami and Wofford, 1-4 vs. RPI top 50
#67: Maryland- 14-6 (4-2), best non-conf win at Indiana, 1-6 vs. RPI top 50
#68: Wichita State- 19-4 (8-3), #164 SOS and #330 non-conf SOS, 3 losses vs. sub RPI top 100
#69: Tulsa- 17-4 (6-1), #62 RPI and #178 SOS, 1 win vs. RPI top 100
#70: North Carolina- 13-8 (2-4), #75 RPI, 1-6 vs. RPI top 50, only road win at NC State
#71: Mississippi State- 16-5 (4-2), #65 RPI and #167 SOS, 3 wins vs. RPI top 100, lost to Rider
#72: Illinois- 14-8 (6-3), #79 RPI, 2-4 vs. RPI top 50, losses to Bradley and Utah on neutral courts
#73: William & Mary- 15-6 (7-4), four losses in CAA including UNC-Wilmington, lost 3 of 4
Teams fairly comfortably in the field (#74-#82)
#74: Minnesota- 13-8 (4-5), #61 RPI, 3-7 vs. RPI top 100, losses to Indiana and Portland
#75: San Diego State- 16-6 (5-3), 2-5 vs. RPI top 50, losses to Pacific and Wyoming
#76: Virginia- 13-6 (4-2), #87 RPI and #118 SOS, losses to Penn State, Auburn, USF and Penn State
#77: South Florida- 14-7 (4-5), #207 non-conf SOS, 1-4 vs. RPI top 50
#78: Seton Hall- 12-8 (3-6), #174 non-conf SOS, 1-5 vs. RPI top 25, 8 losses overall
#79: Northwestern- 15-7 (4-6), 3-7 vs. RPI top 100, #246 non-conf SOS, 6 losses in Big 10 play
#80: Virginia Tech- 16-4 (3-3), #74 RPI and #255 SOS, #345 non-conf SOS, 0-2 vs. RPI top 50
#81: UTEP- 15-5 (6-1), #72 RPI and #141 SOS, 1-3 vs. RPI top 50, best non-conf win at NM St.
#82: Texas Tech- 14-7 (2-5), 0-7 vs. RPI top 50, best non-conf win vs. Wash, best conf win vs. Oklahoma
Special to RushTheCourt. Ryan Restivo of the MAAC-based SienaSaintsBlog is the RTC correspondent for the Colonial Athletic Association. SienaSaintsBlog now features exclusive video!
The BracketBuster matchups are out, and as promised, RTC is here with some analysis of some of the top games! Five Colonial Athletic Association teams lead the pack into these February weekend matchups. The Western Athletic Conference drew four bids and the Missouri Valley drew three. One problem with the BracketBusters? Five of the television games will be on ESPNU, which of course means they’re not available on ESPN360. However I’d say there are five games where you must, to quote another piece here, “quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live.”
Friday 2/19 (RPI)
Old Dominion (#46) @ Northern Iowa (#17) – 7 pm on ESPN2/ESPN360
Get to Know Gerald Lee
The Monarchs will travel to Cedar Rapids to play where the Panthers have won every home game by an average of 14 points per game entering this week. 6’8 UNI senior Adam Koch is a tough-to-contain inside presence, scoring a team high 12.7 points per game. 6’10 ODU senior Gerald Lee will likely be assigned to the task of guarding Koch, an he has been a beast this year for the Monarchs, shooting 53% from the field and leading the team with 14.3 points per game. The matchup to watch in this game will be to see if Old Dominion can defend Koch on the inside while keeping their shooters, junior Kwadzo Ahelegbe (11.1 ppg) and Senior Ali Farokhmanesh (team high 42 3-pointers made), at bay. Both teams are first in their respective conferences in FG percentage defense at eerily similar numbers: Old Dominion’s 39.5% FG-defense is 21st while Northern Iowa’s 39.9% ranks 37th nationally. The Monarchs have had some defensive trouble lately, trying zones at Northeastern on Saturday when facing a team with similar size and offensive weapons as the Panthers, to give up a season high 59.5% field goal percentage.
Saturday 2/20 (RPI)
Siena (#44) @ Butler (#19) – 11 am on ESPN2/ESPN360
The owner of the nation’s longest winning streak, Siena at thirteen straight, will go into an extremely tough environment at Butler in Saturday’s first Bracketbuster game. The Saints are led by 6’5 senior Edwin Ubiles and his 15.8 points per game as he makes his case for MAAC Player of the Year despite some lingering shoulder issues. Alex Franklin plays bigger than his 6’5 frame to lead the Saints down low with 16.1 points per game. On the other side, Butler’s Gordon Hayward has been a beast for the Bulldogs this year, scoring 16.1 points per game and tying a season-high 25 in Sunday’s comeback win over UW-Milwaukee. Hayward, a sophomore, is already attracting the attention of NBA scouts. Fellow sophomore Shelvin Mack has scored 15 points per game and Matt Howard, when not in foul trouble, scores 11 points per game. Howard has been tough to defend inside, going off for 23 points in Butler’s nine-point loss to Minnesota, but has had issues with foul trouble, getting disqualified in three of the Bulldogs’ four losses. It will be interesting to see how Siena defends Hayward and Howard and how this veteran Saints team led by seniors Ubiles, Franklin and Ronald Moore can contain this explosive offense on the road.
We’re a little past the halfway point of the 2009-10 season now, and we wanted to make sure that we had given the players who had performed at an elite level their due and propers with a little love from the crew here at RTC. Here is our 2009-10 Midseason All-America Team.
First Team (** unanimous)
John Wall** (G), Kentucky (17.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 6.8 APG, 2.1 SPG) – Wall has been the most electrifying and clutch player in America so far this season.
Wes Johnson** (F), Syracuse (17.1 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.7 SPG, 1.8 BPG) – Johnson does it all for Jim Boeheim’s team, proving the cranky old man right.
Luke Harangody** (F), Notre Dame (24.7 PPG, 9.8 RPG) – the nation’s scoring leader isn’t just a bomber; he’s also in the top five in overall efficiency.
Damion James (F), Texas (17.3 PPG, 11.0 RPG) – James is the clear leader of a Texas roster brimming with talented players.
Evan Turner (F), Ohio State (18.6 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 5.5 APG) -Mr. Triple-Double (two this year) missed a month and still made it onto the first team.
Second Team
Sherron Collins (G), Kansas (16.3 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.3 SPG) – Collins has proved his worth in late-game situations where he’s taken charge.
Cole Aldrich (C), Kansas (10.8 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 3.4 BPG) – Aldrich doesn’t get enough touches, but his impact on the game is invaluable to the Kansas attack.
Jon Scheyer (G), Duke (19.1 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 5.8 APG, 4.0 A:TO ratio) – Scheyer has proven he can handle Duke’s point guard duties exceptionally well.
Scottie Reynolds (G), Villanova (18.7 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.5 SPG) – Big Shot continues to improve, leading Villanova to 17-1.
Al-Farouq Aminu (F), Wake Forest (17.3 PPG, 11.5 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.5 SPG, 1.3 BPG) – the Leap that we all expected from Aminu in year two has happened.
Third Team
Da’Sean Butler (F), West Virginia (15.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 3.4 APG) – Butler’s superb numbers get crowded out by the other talented forwards in the Big East.
Quincy Pondexter (F), Washington (20.4 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.4 SPG) – it’s been a disappointing first half for UW, but not because of Pondexter.
Jarvis Varnado (F), Mississippi State (14.1 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 5.3 BPG) – the nation’s most feared interior presence continues to erase possessions for the opponent.
Patrick Patterson (F), Kentucky (16.3 PPG, 7.9 RPG on 63% FG) – Patterson is not as hyped as Wall or fellow big man DeMarcus Cousins, but he’s more efficient than both.
Jimmer Fredette (G), BYU (19.4 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 5.0 APG, 1.6 SPG) – Fredette’s elevated production has helped BYU get off to a fantastic 19-1 start.
According to this report from CBS Sports, earlier today the NCAA passed legislation regarding a subject they’ve been talking about tackling for years, specifically that of basketball programs hiring “anyone associated with a basketball recruit for a two-year period before or after the player enrolls at the school.” Gone, therefore, are the days when a coach could entice a prized recruit to play at his program by also offering up a job as an assistant coach or administrative assistant (fill in whatever title you wish) to the recruit’s high school or AAU coach, or to a family member.
Don’t be fooled — this tactic is as much in practice today as it was in the past. A piece by the inestimable Andy Katz published at ESPN.com back in September brought up the matter of Louisville’s Rick Pitino hiring an assistant coach from star recruit Marquis Teague’s high school team as an assistant at the U of L program, and that many people are questioning the timing. At the beginning of the article he cites several examples of programs hiring associates/family members to help land recruits: during Bob Huggins’ one year at Kansas State, the program hired UNC-Charlotte assistant Dalonte Hill (Michael Beasley’s AAU coach); Beasley decided to get out of his initial commitment to Charlotte and head to K-State soon after. Danny Manning’s father was on Kansas’ staff during the Danny and the Miracles title year, and Mario Chalmers’ father was a staff member on their championship team from two years ago. John Calipari hired Milt Wagner to his staff right around the time that his son, prized prepster DaJuan Wagner, had signed with Memphis. It’s true, in each of these situations, there were reasons to hire the associate/family member other than their relation to the star player, and many of them were in their positions before and after the player came or left. The point is, though, that shady or not, this stuff happens. We know why it happens. And the NCAA has now attempted to do something about it.
Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist plus author of the weekly Ten Tuesday Scribbles and Bubble Watch columns.
With college football crowning another faux-national champion Thursday night in Pasadena, the college sports scene can officially shift its axis to basketball. While a number of college basketball diehards such as yours truly were knee-deep in mid-major box scores and enthralling non-conference tournaments since the season tipped off in mid-November, it’s perfectly understandable for our college football-fan brethren out there to have been entranced in the gridiron scene during this time. For many folks out there, college basketball truly begins when a football champion is crowned and conference play heats up, when Rece and the gang show up on our TVs every Saturday morning at 11 AM and the bubble begins to take its early shape. For those people, you sure missed plenty of exciting hoops action. To get you caught up in what has gone down thus far on the hardwood, here’s a summary for your enjoyment, divvied up into the six major conferences and all the rest:
ACC
What we’ve learned: There was much back-and-forth debate entering this season whether Duke or North Carolina represented the class of this conference. After two solid months of play, it’s fairly evident Duke has separated themselves from their bitter rival as the class of the ACC. While the Tar Heels may top Duke skill-wise up front, Carolina simply does not boast the backcourt to even contend with the Dukies’ tandem of Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith. The primary knock on Duke heading into this season was point guard play with Elliot Williams transferring to Memphis. As a true sharp-shooting 2-guard who creates his shots coming off screens in Redick-like fashion, could Scheyer handle the responsibility of running the Duke offense? The answer has been resounding in the affirmative: 19.7 PPG, 46% FG, 92% FT, 43% 3pt and an otherworldly 4.8 A/TO ratio that currently leads the nation. Another key to Duke’s early season success has been Coach K’s willingness to adjust his defense to fit his roster. Rather than employing the normal Duke on-ball pressure attack, Krzyzewski is utilizing more of a sagging defense that plays into the frontcourt depth Duke enjoys with six players that receive time at 6’8 or taller.
Scheyer Has His Devils Looking Great This Season
What’s still to be determined: After Duke and Carolina (and let’s not go overboard following the Heels loss to Charleston, they’re still clearly the second best team in this conference), who will emerge as the third contender behind the top two dogs? An ever-shifting proposition, the current edge probably goes to Florida State despite their utter lack of point guard play. The Seminoles are one of the tallest teams in the nation and have a few capable long-range shooters that get open looks when defenses collapse on Solomon Alabi and Chris Singleton. Plus, they’re off to a head start with a December win at ACC foe Georgia Tech. Plenty of folks think Clemson could be that team behind powerful big man Trevor Booker, but they lack a second scoring option and I can’t stop thinking back to their collapse at home to an inexperienced Illinois squad. It would be unwise to count out Gary Williams, and the jury’s still out on Virginia Tech and Miami due to their soft schedules, so I’ll give the current edge to Wake Forest as that third team. The road win at Gonzaga’s on-campus arena stands out, Ish Smith has turned into a fine point guard and Al-Farouq Aminu has as much pure talent as anyone in this conference.
NCAA Locks: Duke, North Carolina.
Likely bids: Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest.
Bubble teams: Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech.
Make other plans for March: Boston College, North Carolina State, Virginia.
Big East
What we’ve learned: The NCAA picture is shaping up quite similarly to last season when Louisville (regular season champion), Pittsburgh and Connecticut all received #1 seeds. There will be much back-and-forth debate about whether the top three teams this season — Syracuse, West Virginia and Villanova -- holds the edge in this conference, but does it really matter? Right now you’d be hard-pressed to find someone who doesn’t think Kansas, Texas, Kentucky and Purdue are the likely #1 seeds (of course plenty could change, we have two months of games left), while those top contenders in the Big East are likely all on the second seed line. Even of greater importance though is the obvious revelation that Jamie Dixon can coach basketball. You wouldn’t be alone if you counted out Pittsburgh following a near-loss to Wofford, a 47-point output at home vs. New Hampshire and a second half butt-kicking at the hands of Indiana, but those losses came without their most athletic player, Gilbert Brown, and their best defender, Jermaine Dixon. Those two have returned to action with the most improved Big East player Ashton Gibbs (who recently broke the all-time Pitt record for consecutive free throws made) as a fearsome trio that has carried the Panthers to road wins over previously-undefeated Syracuse and fringe-top 25 Cincinnati. If Dixon is able to coax his Panthers into a NCAA Tournament team after losing such enormous production and leadership in Sam Young, DeJuan Blair and Levance Fields, there is little debate on his merits as National Coach of the Year.
Over the long holiday weekend, Syracuse and West Virginia fell from the ranks of the unbeaten, leaving only four teams — Kansas, Texas, Kentucky & Purdue — with a shot at the holy grail of a perfect season. None of the coaches will admit to it on the record, but they all hate losing, and each of them would welcome a chance to become the first team since Indiana in 1976 to win every game put in front of them. There’s only one problem. It’s collectively called the Big 12, SEC and Big Ten gauntlets schedules.
As you’re well aware, there have only been two schools in the last two decades who have run the regular season table — UNLV in 1991, and St. Joseph’s in 2004 — and of course the aforementioned Hoosiers a generation ago were the last to go unblemished throughout. There are many reasons for this, especially given that it’s difficult to win every single game with a growing target on your back, but the primary reason that Tark’s Rebels and Martelli’s Hawks were able to do it when so many other great teams were not was because they played in mid-major conferences (the Big West and Atlantic 10, respectively). This is not to say that those conferences are cakewalks, because they’re not. Every league has its share of rivalry games, other good programs and rattlesnake pits disguised as home gyms that make life difficult on favorites. But what those conferences provide that is often missing among the BCS conferences are the true bottom-feeders that give elite teams such as UNLV/St. Joe’s breaks on a given night. Have a tough shooting night at Vandy or Baylor? You’re going home with your first L. A tough shooting night at Fordham or Long Beach, though? You’re probably still ok.
With the clear knowledge in mind that all four of the remaining unbeatens are going to lose a regular season game (or several), let’s take a look at the remaining schedules to pinpoint exactly when and where that might happen. First, let’s see what Pomeroy has to say. He provides percentage odds on every future game, and if you extrapolate out over the rest of the year, you can start to pinpoint the true likelihood of when that first loss might occur.
This is a good starting point, as Purdue appears to be the most likely candidate to lose next (@ Wisconsin on Saturday), while Kansas seems to be the most likely team to run the table (10.2% isn’t exactly a lock, though). The statistical analysis Pomeroy provides only tells part of the story, though, so we’re going to break down each team’s likelihood of its next loss using another analytical tool – our brain.
Because sometimes, playing with the numbers is more fun than watching the actual games. This is the first of a three-part series on height and college basketball.
“You can’t teach height.” – Frank Layden, Utah Jazz Basketball Coach
More so than in any other sport, height plays a huge role in determining a player’s fate on the court. My wife’s jaw drops when I tell her I’m the same height as Steve Nash. However, as a friend once told me, “being tall does not necessarily correlate with ability to play basketball.” For example, growing up in Charlottesville, the late nineties saw a man by the name of Chase Metheny suit up for the Cavaliers. Chase was an astonishing 7 feet 4 inches tall and he was… terrible. He just didn’t have the body coordination necessary to compete with other bigs in the conference and proving the point that being tall doesn’t mean you can dominate everyone.
So, then, what does it buy you? How does being taller help the average college basketball team?
Ken Pomeroy looked at this last year, but I’d like to take it a bit further. I’ve gone to kenpom.com (where else?) and downloaded the statistics for the effective height of each team. A team’s effective height is the sum of the height of each player on the team weighted by the percentage of minutes played (assuming the player has played at least 10% of the teams minutes). Thus, a team’s effective height can change depending on who they put on the floor. If Texas gives Dexter Pittman (6′10) more minutes relative to Dogus Balbay (6′1), they become a taller team in effective height terms.
I’ve separated the data out into offensive and defensive efficiency and plotted it versus effective height. (Note that redder is better.)
In case you missed it, there was a bizarre ending to the Butler vs. Xavier game in Hinkle Fieldhouse today that allowed the home Bulldogs to get a huge win that will undoubtedly help them when it comes to NCAA Tournament seeding in March. Down a single point with thirty-six seconds remaining, Butler came out of a broken play with a a wide-open layup for Gordon Hayward that included two offensive rebounds, a couple of near-steals for Xavier, a possible backcourt violation, a clock stoppage, a couple of scrums on the floor and a long break in the action as the refs tried to sort it all out. This is the sequence of events as they happened in real time:
What ended up happening was something that we’ve never seen before in all our years of watching college basketball (or our correspondent’s, who was on-site at the game today). If you stuck with the video all the way to the end, you know that the officials ultimately decided that the brief clock stoppage during the near-steal in the backcourt negated the final 1.2 seconds of the game, giving Butler the victory without an opportunity for Xavier to throw length-of-the-court and try to win the game. We’ve probably seen time added to a game a hundred or more times, but we’re not sure we’ve ever seen time taken away to end a game. Here’s the officials’ postgame explanation:
The game clock was erroneously stopped at 14.7 seconds. When we put (on) the stopwatch to see how long the clock had erroneously stopped, 1.3 seconds had elapsed. The shot by the Butler player was released at 1.8 seconds. The ball went through the net at 1.2 seconds and the clock stopped correctly. Because we lost 1.3 seconds, that time is deducted from the remaining 1.2 seconds, officially ending the game.
Xavier’s Chris Mack was apoplectic over this decision, and there’s a general sense around the twitterati that XU got homered at historic Hinkle today, but was the decision by the officials a fair and equitable one? Should time ever be taken away from a close game? And what does the NCAA rule say? RTC is here to answer those questions.
The news that the Big Ten was looking to expand from 11 teams (yeah I know 11 > 10) to 12 teams (yeah I know there is already a Big 12) set the college sports world abuzz with speculation about who the 12th team would be. And that set off a chain reaction of questions about who would fill in the spot in the conference that the Big Ten’s 12th member would leave vacant and so on. We will leave the latter for another post if and when the Big Ten finally commits to expansion and selects a school. Right now the schools I have heard mentioned most often are Cincinnati, Connecticut, Iowa State, Louisville, Missouri, Notre Dame, Rutgers, Syracuse, Texas,and West Virginia. I’ll go ahead and make this simple for everybody. Despite what Mike DeCourcy says Texas is not going to the Big Ten. The prospect of Texas leaving the Big 12 is too disastrous for the Big 12 officials to let happen. He can argue about TV revenues and how Texas is a much bigger TV draw than any of its Big 12 competitors, but he is missing a key element here. Unfortunately for Mike, geography destroys his grand scheme of having the Longhorns leave the Big 12 for the Big Ten. As the graphic clearly illustrates, Austin, Texas, is very far away from the members of the Big Ten. In fact the closest school would be Illinois, which is just a short 1,032 mile trip away from Austin (or 3 Mike DeCourcy Sporting News glamour shots).
That’s a lot of gas money even in a Civic.
While I understand a college team expects to have its fans outnumbered in road games, I can’t imagine that they would want to have a scenario where none of their students could go to a road game and none of the opposing team’s fans could watch games in Austin. So in my mind that pretty clearly eliminates Texas from consideration in the Big Ten. You can use this same argument when Mike suggests that UCLA join the Big East after the Big Ten poaches one of their programs for this round of expansion.
Sunday you were probably there with every other college sports fan glued to your television at 8 pm as the bowl pairings were announced, right? Orrrr… not, as it came in dead last in its time slot on Fox. So why weren’t you there with your pencil and brackets bowl matchup worksheets in hand? Because you knew that there is only one more college football game that matters this season, and you already knew who was playing for it (i.e., traditional powers Alabama and Texas). Other than to the fans of the individual schools who can take a holiday-season vacation to (hopefully) a warmer clime, the other 477 bowls are utterly meaningless to the crowning of a national champion, a jury-rigged travesty that continues to barf on itself seemingly every year as teams who win every single one of their games are considered unworthy for a shot at the ultimate prize (particular hilarity reserved for when a non-trad BCS team such as Cincinnati is left out).
Why Mess With Perfection?
We Can Actually Learn Something From NCAA Football… Well, Sorta
The best argument that the BCS apologists make every year is that their system values the regular season, and this is true to a certain extent. The problem is that it overvalues the regular season at the expense of the postseason. It values the regular season so much that it excludes worthy teams from its national championship picture based on ambiguous metrics that include computer rankings and vaguely-tuned in coaches and sportswriters who have been shown to not put equitable and informed efforts into their ballots. Consider that last year’s basketball computer rankings — both Sagarin and KenPom — could have placed Memphis against UNC in the “BCS title game” at the end of the regular season. Given their personnel losses, did anyone actually believe Memphis was a Final Four team last year, much less a title contender? Of course not. Thank goodness for small favors… and the NCAA Tournament.
This is why, when those of us who favor a college football playoff argue in favor of it, we push for an 8-team or 16-team playoff. Like the current format of the NCAA Tournament, such an entity would allow for every realistic potential NCAA football champion to have a shot at glory. Cincy, Boise and TCU this year – check. Utah last year – check. Boise again in 2006 – check. And so on back through the running comedy that has been the BCS over the last twelve years. The reason that we support this system (over a 32-team playoff, for example) is that it allows for college football to crown a tested and worthy champion while also respecting the integrity of a national championship by only including deserving and excellent teams.
70% of BCS Teams Do Not Belong in the NCAA Tournament
When we read today that the NCAA is considering expansion of March Madness to 96 teams from its current 65, effectively folding the NIT into the Big Dance and adding another week to the Tournament, we really cannot get on board with this idea. Why not? Because put simply, the additional teams that will be invited are not worthy. Every year there are certainly a few bubble teams that have a great case for inclusion in the field of 65; but there aren’t 32 of them, and if we add another layer of middling BCS teams, we only serve to cheapen what is right now the greatest spectacle for excitement in all of sports while simultaneously further minimizing the importance of the regular season. Seriously, why even have a 16-game ACC schedule if you’ll get a bid by winning six or seven games?
Only a Handful of Bubble Teams Deserve Entry
Let’s look at this from a numbers perspective. Consider last year’s NIT field (presumably the #66-#97-ranked teams, discounting for the regular season champion clause). We’ll focus exclusively on BCS teams here because they are the most likely beneficiaries of the new setup. By our calculation, if the 2009 NCAA Tournament had included the NIT field, almost half (15) of the additional teams would have come from the BCS conferences, which would mean that FIFTY-ONE of the SEVENTY-THREE(70%) BCS conference teams would have been invited to the NCAA Tournament. So what’s the profile threshold that would have gotten you a bid last year using this format?
Bubble Team(19-12, 9-10) – the typical team in this group lost to nearly everyone they were supposed to, beat very few elite teams, and mostly built up the majority of their wins in a soft nonconference schedule. They finished anywhere between 7th-10th in their conference and, on average, won one game in the conference tournament. There was nothing particularly interesting or compelling about any of these teams, and the odds of any of them making a run to the Round of 32, much less the Sweet Sixteen, would have been minimal. See below breakdown for a detailed look at the fifteen BCS teams that would have been invited last season.
So why add them? The answer that the coaches want to expand the NCAA Tournament is not satisfactory (of course they do!). The answer that media executives also want to expand it also falls on deaf ears (they are selling a product and can’t be relied upon to act in the best interests of the game). Whoever is seriously listening to this idea really needs to be removed from his or her post. Why would you mess with something that already works so damn well? As Mike DeCourcy so succinctly put it in today’s article, this is a “horrible idea” and would end up being a “disaster.” Couldn’t agree more, Mike.
2009 NIT BCS Team Breakdown
*note – all records and stats are prior to the 2009 NIT (conf reg season finish)
ACC – 7 NCAA teams, 2 NIT teams
Virginia Tech (18-14, 8-10) – lost 7 of their last 9 games (t-7).
Miami (FL) (18-12, 7-10) – lost 8 of their last 12 games (t-7).
Big East – 7 NCAA teams, 3 NIT teams
Georgetown (16-14, 7-12) – is this a joke? Georgetown couldn’t beat anyone in the Big East; finished 4-11 in their last fifteen games. (t-11)
Notre Dame (18-14, 9-11) – ND at one point lost seven Big East games in a row; five of their final six wins were against teams rated #80 or below. (t-9)
Providence (19-13, 11-9) – at least PC had a winning Big East record, right? (t-7)
Big Ten – 7 NCAA teams, 2 NIT teams
Penn State (22-11, 11-9) – PSU had a reasonable argument for inclusion last year with their resume, and they showed it by winning the NIT. (t-4)
Northwestern (17-13, 8-11) - NW did not and their resume was in no way supportive of an NCAA berth last year. (9)
Big 12 – 6 NCAA teams, 3 NIT teams
Kansas State (21-11, 9-8) – K-State is another bubble team that could have arguably received a bid to the Big Dance last year (t-4).
Baylor (20-14, 8-12) - Baylor, on the other hand, went 2-10 in their last twelve regular season games prior to making a Big 12 Tourney run (10).
Nebraska (18-12, 8-9) – lost five of their last eight and was sorely lacking in quality wins over the course of the season (9).
Pac-10 – 6 NCAA teams, 1 NIT team
Washington State (17-15, 9-11) – a mediocre Pac-10 team who lost to nearly every good team it played last season. (7)
SEC – 3 NCAA teams, 4 NIT teams
South Carolina (21-9, 10-7) – best wins of the year were against who? Kentucky and Florida? (t-1 East)
Auburn (22-11, 11-7) – at least the Tigers finished strong, winning 9 of their last 11 games. (2 West)
Florida (23-10, 10-8) – again, the Gators beat and lost to a bunch of other mediocre SEC teams – how is that NCAA-worthy? (3 East)
Kentucky (20-13, 9-9) – losing 8 of their final 11 regular season games does not an NCAA team make. (t-4 East)
Out of the above group, there are maybe 3-4 teams that had a reasonable argument to be included in the field of 65 teams. Other than that, do we really want teams like the 2009 versions of Georgetown, Kentucky, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Miami (FL), and Baylor getting bids to the Big Dance? Let those teams stay in the NIT where they belong. Please.
Ray Floriani of College Chalktalk is the RTC correspondent for the MAAC and NEC conferences. He also regularly covers all levels of basketball in the New York City area.
NEW YORK CITY – The morning started on a Northeast Conference note. I officiated three basketball games in the NJ Goats (love that name!) Thanksgiving Tournament. My partner was Ed Mills, a NEC official who occasionally will do a 12-and-under boys tournament such as this. Our third and final game had a former NEC official, Tony Banks, who stepped down a few years ago due to illness. Three nice games in the book and off to New York. Forget Black Friday shopping.
A final look back on the Pre-Season NIT finals and consolation. Duke knocked off UConn 68-59 for the championship.
Think of Duke and the images of motion offense, passes quickly distributed around the perimeter, precision cuts and open shots come to mind. Friday’s Pre-Season NIT final gave us a look at this year’s Duke, a team that will battle you in the paint and contest everything. The offensive rebounding rate is proof enough. Overall the Blue Devils outrebounded UConn 56-43 with a 25-14 edge on the offensive glass. And this was against a Husky team with several skilled, tough big men. The principal damage on the offensive glass was inflicted by Brian Zoubek (7 off boards) and Lance Thomas (5 off rebs). Zoubek scored only 2 points but impacted things contesting the paint and adding 11 rebounds overall. Coach Mike Krzyzewski noted two of Zoubek’s offensive rebounds resulted in pitches back out to the perimeter that resulted in three point field goals.
UConn shot 0-4 on the afternoon from three. Not a big concern for Coach Jim Calhoun as the gameplan was to attack the basket. Offensively two things stood out for the Huskies: the field goal percentage of 37% (22-59) and worse yet, a 15-28 mark from the charity stripe. Time and again as UConn was in the process of a run a missed free throw or two put a serious dent in their momentum. Two key points were emphasized by Calhoun. “I can’t remember holding an opponent to 28% field goal percentage (for the game) and limiting them to eight second-half field goals and losing.” Calhoun answered his own question looking at the stat sheet and lamenting the loss of the battle of the boards.
We’re a little short on time for this post, but we wanted to make sure that it’s up ahead of tonight’s Penn State @ Virginia game (7 pm ET, ESPN2) that tips off the 2009 ACC/Big Ten Challenge. If you’re reading this post, you’re undoubtedly well aware that the ACC holds a commanding 62-35 record in the ten-year history of this event, and that the ACC has won all ten challenges. The Big Ten has had four years where it lost by only one game (6-5 or 5-4), but the schools from the midwest have never been able to put it all together in a single season to overtake the mighty ACC.
Until this year.
We here at RTC believe that 2009 is when the tide will finally shift in favor of the Big Ten. The talent and coaching are there, the matchups are favorable, and nothing lasts forever (except Clemson losing in Chapel Hill, apparently). Here’s our quick analysis of how this year’s Challenge will go down…
Monday November 30
Penn State @ Virginia (ESPN2) – 7 pm. This might appear to be one of the least important games of the Challenge, but given the other matchups, this could be the rubber game that the Big Ten needs to bring the whole ACC house of cards down. Both teams are 4-2 so far this year, but on paper, Virginia’s losses (South Florida and Stanford) are a little more impressive than Penn State’s (UNC-Wilmington and Tulane). This will be a meat-grinder of a game, and the team whose star guard plays better — Sylven Landesberg (UVa) or Talor Battle (PSU) — will win. Our money is on Mr. Clutch, Talor Battle, and PSU will give the Big Ten a key road win to start it off.
Tuesday December 1
Wake Forest @ #4 Purdue (ESPN) – 7 pm. This might be a chic upset pick for the ACC, but don’t bother going there. Wake has yet to play anyone of consequence and lost to William & Mary on Saturday night anyway because they have no outside shooting to speak of. Purdue will triple-up on Al-Farouq Aminu and dare the Deacon guards to fire away. They will, and they’ll miss, and Purdue’s easy victory will put the Big Ten into an early 2-0 lead.
Northwestern @ NC State (ESPNU) - 7pm. After Kevin Coble injured his knee, we would have chosen NC State here. But Northwestern dispatched of Notre Dame and Iowa State over the weekend after testing Butler the week before, and we’re becoming convinced that the Wildcats are still going to be heard from this season. NC State is 5-0 with its best win over Auburn, but NW isn’t going to shoot 45% from the line tonight (as NCSU’s opponents have this season), and it says here that the Big Ten steals another road win to go up 3-0.
Maryland @ Indiana (ESPN2) – 7:30 pm. Indiana continues to play tough games they end up losing (0-3 in the islands last week) and Maryland looked less than impressive in Maui, but we dare you to count out Gary Williams. Because as soon as you do, he makes you look silly. This has the makings of a Greivis Vasquez explosion game… national tv, people doubting Maryland, all the red in the building. Maryland draws the first Big Ten blood with a commanding road win to make the tally 3-1.
#9 Michigan State @ #10 North Carolina (ESPN) – 9 pm. The marquee game of the entire Challenge, just like last year. Even though MSU has the majority of its team returning, and UNC does not, we don’t like that this game is taking place in Chapel Hill. The preponderance of Carolina blue in the building is going to glaze over the eyes of Kalin Lucas, Delvon Roe, Raymar Morgan and company as they remember the two shellackings from 2008-09, and MSU turns in a stinker of a game as the youthful Heels strut their stuff in front of the home crowd. The tally moves to 3-2 Big Ten.
Virginia Tech @ Iowa (ESPN2) – 9:30 pm. Iowa is without question one of the worst BCS teams in existence this year, and as bad as Virginia Tech is profiling right now, they’re still significantly better than the Hawkeyes. We’d expect this game to be incredibly ugly and close, but Malcolm Delaney as the best player on the court will take over in the last few minutes to give Va Tech the win. This result will even things up 3-3 going into Wednesday’s games.
Ray Floriani of College Chalktalk is an occasional contributor and the RTC correspondent for the NEC and MAAC conferences.
NEW YORK CITY – A final look back on Coaches vs. Cancer from a tempo free perspective. The first semifinal was a blowout with Syracuse dominating California 95-73. The other semifinal, North Carolina vs. Ohio State, was a rout for the Tar Heels. Down the stretch, Ohio State, which shot a putrid 1 of 10 beyond the arc in the first half, suddenly found the range. It was a one possession game with under twenty seconds to play. The Buckeyes never drew even and Carolina prevailed 77-73. The offensive efficiency tale of two halves:
North Carolina had a more even distribution with a 103 offensive efficiency and a 101 mark for the game. The strong second half showing by the Buckeyes was largely due to the Buckeyes’ shooting 17 of 30 (57%) for the final twenty minutes, including 5 of 11 from three.
Beware of the turnover. Tempo-free advocates and coaches agree, twenty percent or one-fifth of your possessions resulting in a turnover is not conducive to offensive efficiency, or winning. In the first semifinal, California had a TO rate of 19% (15 turnovers on 81 possessions). Not a bad showing, but upon further review, Syracuse had 10 steals and scored 19 points off Cal turnovers, which is indeed damaging. The problem is that not all turnovers are created equal. If you throw a pass out of bounds, the ball is dead and you can organize your defense. However, if the ball is stolen at midcourt your opponent has a great transition opportunity which often leads to a score.
As I write this, the North Carolina men’s basketball team just finished off their second win of the 2009-10 season against North Carolina Central. The University of Kentucky squad will play their first game this Friday, November 13th against Morehead State. That means that as of right now, the UNC program has amassed 1,986 wins in its incredible history. UK will start this season with 1,988. From this, it looks like in the Race For 2,000, we have a real barnburner on our hands.
Well, if you’re a Tar Heel supporter and you’re reading this, I have some bad news. We don’t. To Wildcat fans: you can fire up the sewing machines and start creating that banner. Call the silkscreeners and start cranking out T-shirts. I’m calling it.
The wins have occurred over time in such a way that both programs will get to the 2,000-win mark early in this season’s schedule, and we know the early part of any season is a time of the year when many teams load their schedule with a fair number of cupcakes and a few big non-conference names thrown in there for RPI/strength-of-schedule boosting. UNC and UK have both done this for this season, and this is nothing new for anyone. This season started with UK leading the race with 1,988 wins to UNC’s 1,984. UNC’s early start this week pulls them to within two wins. So let’s see how the rest of their schedules look up until December 5th, when Kentucky and North Carolina meet up for a monumental clash at Rupp Arena:
North Carolina: Valparaiso, Ohio State (in NYC), California OR Syracuse (in NYC), Gardner-Webb, Nevada, Michigan State.
Kentucky: Morehead State, Miami (OH), Sam Houston State, Rider, Cleveland State, Stanford OR Virginia, UNC-Asheville.
For the sake of argument, let’s say both teams start the season perfectly up to this point. That’s no guarantee; UNC-Ohio State, UNC-California/Syracuse, or even UNC-Nevada could be interesting. Kentucky has it a little easier up to here, so we’re actually helping the Tar Heels by assuming a perfect start to the season. But let’s say it happens — this would put the race at UK with 1,995 and UNC with 1,992 going into the head-to-head matchup.
If the names Duke, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina and UCLA didn’t come immediately to mind, then you probably shouldn’t be reading this site. The gummy bear picture that you’re looking for is somewhere else. These six schools represent, oh, only about half of the NCAA championships, a boatload of great players and tradition, and somewhere in the neighborhood of 11,000 wins. Not too shabby.
Now, who would you have on the next tier of great programs? Certainly Louisville, Ohio St., Cincinnati, Syracuse, Michigan St., NC State and some others would have a good argument, right? You might even throw an Oklahoma St. (two titles as A&M) or a Georgetown in there, right? Riddle us this, though. Where would you place a program that has been admittedly solid over the years, but even with five Final Fours on its resume, has never quite grasped the brass ring itself?
If you’re a computer program such as Jeff Sagarin’s all-time college basketball ratings (released today as part of the ESPN CBB Encyclopedia out tomorrow), you might rank that program sixth. As in, the sixth best program in college basketball history. Ahead of Duke, Louisville, and all but the elites mentioned above. And therein lies the problem with purely quantitative analysis such as this – whether it’s the BCS or the Helms Titles – there absolutely must be a qualitative component where you can consider the look and feel of what you’re evaluating, or you end up with an embarrassing result that suggests Illinois is the sixth best college basketball program of all-time.
Look, we have nothing against the Illini. There’s no question that the Big Ten stalwart is one of the top twenty programs ever, as five F4s, plenty of great players from Red Kerr to Deron Williams, and a long history of achievement will attest. But if the boys from Urbana-Champaign are one of the top six programs in history, having never won a national title (and only sniffing it once, in 2005), well, we simply cannot accept that result. By contrast, the #7 team in Sagarin’s all-time ratings, Duke, has by itself won three titles, been a runner-up six other times, and enjoyed the final weekend another five times. How is this possible?
Aggregation of data is how. At some point during Duke’s long basketball history, their ‘down’ periods were worse than Illinois’ even though Duke’s ‘up’ periods are much better, and despite all the phenomenal success of the Blue Devil program over the course of 72 years of basketball, Illinois’ profile looked slightly stronger in Jeff Sagarin’s insane mind on paper (although after reviewing all-time records here and here, we’re still having trouble figuring that out).
Ed. Note: we just learned that the methodology JS used was to double the value of NCAA Tournament wins vs. regular wins, with no regard for when they occurred. We’d have thought that Sagarin might have put a little more thought into that, eh? Perhaps giving bonuses for winning games deeper into March, perhaps?
Here are some other head scratchers:
#10 Iowa – with 3 F4s and no titles, this could be even more egregious than the Illinois selection at #6.
#25 USC - there is literally nobody in the Pac-10 who would agree with this.
#34 California – Stanford will be pleased to know that their rival school with a title and runner-up is below the Cardinal.
#38 Maryland – one spot behind Wake Forest and its sole F4 appearance. Hilarious.
#49 Arizona – we understand why Arizona is so low (same with UConn), but good grief…
#54 Connecticut – Calhoun and Olson are those programs, historically speaking, but we have trouble seeing a two-title team this low.
#64 Florida – speaking of two titles…
#77 Northwestern – yes the same NW who has never been to the NCAA Tournament. Not once.
#149 Rutgers – not a head scratcher, but this is the lowest BCS program on the list.
Turns out we’re not the only ones sitting around and wondering just what happened here.
We stumbled across an article recently while reading about the latest Sarah Palin tragicomedy, and we were immediately surprised about a couple of things. First, why is the Huffington Post writing about one-and-done basketball players? And second, why is the author of the piece, NCAA head honcho Myles Brand, blogging for the HuffPo and not ESPN, CBS Sports, NCAA News or some other sports-related website? Further investigation revealed that Brand has been writing on this platform since last August – 13 total entries – ranging in topics from the myth of the ‘dumb jock’ to diversity hiring in athletics to pay-for-play. It made for some interesting browsing, and if you have an extra fifteen or twenty minutes, well worth the time to delve deeper into the mind of someone who has spent countless hours in contemplative thought about the major issues affecting collegiate athletics today.
Of course, the post that caught our eye initially was written this week and called “Maybe Two is More Than Twice As Good As One,” and the central thesis to Brand’s argument is that there is a media-driven hysteria that significantly overblows the negative impact that one-and-dones have on college basketball. Brand writes:
Other than all the articles written, it [one-and-dones] has little impact on the college game. “But wait,” shout the naysayers, “What about the fact that the rule guarantees there will be basketball players — student-athletes — who have no intention of being students and even stop going to classes their second semester? And what about the fact that some may cheat to become eligible for their required one year?” The problem with the majority of the media reports is that they focus on the same two or three examples and fail to point out that the number of one-and-doners is no more than a handful in any one year.
Brand, in aggregate terms, is right about this part. We showed in our analysis of one-and-dones last week that there have been 24 total such players in the three year history of the rule, or, roughly eight per year, which accounts for <0.1% of D1 players in a given season. Of the 24, only two players – USC’s OJ Mayo and Memphis’ Derrick Rose – have been involved in ex post facto allegations of impropriety (roughly 8% of those). (Note: the class of 2009 with John Wall, Lance Stephenson, Renardo Sidney and others could significantly increase these numbers). Eight percent of a sample of 0.1% of D1 players is a very small number indeed, and from Brand’s perspective as president of the entire shebang, seemingly insignificant.
The problem is that, from a casual college basketball fan’s perspective, those 24 players are significant. And for a fan of a particular school that has lost multiple star players in three seasons to the one-and-done rule – schools such as Ohio St. (3), UCLA (2), Georgia Tech (2), Memphis (2), or USC (2) – those players are very significant. Not to mention fans who are fatigued from watching star players pass through campus for one unfulfilling season before shuffling off to the NBA – keep in mind that of the nineteen one-and-dones, only Rose, Kevin Love and the OSU trio of Greg Oden, Mike Conley and Daequan Cook have played in a Final Four and none has won a championship (Melo, of course, came to Syracuse prior to the NBA rule). As a result of this rule, college basketball is robbed of its top young players every single year, often before they can make a national splash, and that fact alone makes it increasingly difficult for casual fans to stay tuned in on a year-to-year basis.
While we generally take issue with the relative impact of the one-and-done rule according to Brand (it’s a big deal!), we completely agree with his suggested solution: just add another year to the NBA requirement. We’re as much a right-to-work person as anybody, and by no means do we want to suggest that this is the ‘right’ thing from the perspective of the athletes; however, if the NBA is going to continue to insist on a rule for its own selfish reasons of improved scouting, minimizing competitive risk, and providing players a less stressful opportunity to grow, then a two-year requirement is the proper compromise. By staying in college for two seasons, Brand mentions that the marketability of stars would increase substantially and it certainly would get more players further along the path toward graduation (4+ semesters vs. 1+), and we completely agree with his assessment.
The word we’ve heard for some time now is that NBA Commish David Stern wanted a two-year requirement during the last collective bargaining negotiations, but he backed off in order to get some other things on his wish list. With a rough economy taking a bite of the entertainment dollar in NBA cities across the land, Stern may be in good position to push through the two-year rule when the next bargaining session begins in 2011. And who knows, with Myles Brand lobbying/blogging into his ear, college hoops may just end up better for this in the long run.
It’s no secret that the high school Class of 2008 was one of the weakest in recent memory. Coming into the 2008-09 regular season, could you realistically point to any one player who would impact their team enough to become another Derrick Rose or a Michael Beasley (class of 2007), a Greg Oden or a Kevin Durant (class of 2006)? No way, right? The consensus #1 player, Brandon Jennings, high-tailed it to Europe when it became apparent he wasn’t going to become eligible to play college ball at Arizona, where he proceeded to burn up foreign nets at the clip of 6 ppg and 2 apg in limited action (17 mpg). The rest of the elite remained stateside, but from Jrue Holiday on down to his teammate Malcolm Lee at UCLA, the collegians too had middling degrees of success. We use the RSCI top 20 ratings provided by Statsheet for our table below.
The last two summers (here are 2007 and 2008), we’ve taken it upon ourselves to review how these one-and-dones did during their freshman year to determine whether their presence on campus for a mere 6-8 months was worth it for the schools involved. As it turned out this time around, only four college freshmen (+ Jennings) thought they were ready for the NBA Draft after only one season, so let’s take a look at how things turned out for them and their teams last year.
2009 One-and-Dones
Memphis – Worth It. After losing three starters from their 2008 national runner-up team, Memphis could have slid back into relative mediocrity by Tiger standards – very good, but not great. One-and-doner Tyreke Evans prevented that from happening. He averaged 17/5/4 assts/2 stls in 29 mpg and was the most efficient player on the team. He also showed that he was a gamer, dropping 33 huge points in the Tigers’ loss to Missouri and leading a furious comeback from 24 points down in that contest. More importantly, Memphis was 6-3 and ranked #24 in the nation when Evans moved from the shooting guard to the point guard slot; the Tigers then ran off 27 straight wins en route to a #2 seed and another Sweet Sixteen appearance, much of it due to Evans’ command of the team. Furthermore, prior to John Calipari’s departure, Memphis was building a pretty impressive reputation as a successful stopover for NBA-level point guards. Is there any coincidence that John Wall followed Calipari to Kentucky after seeing what Evans and Rose were able to do at Memphis? We’d have to say that Tyreke Evans coming to Memphis for one year was most definitely worth it for that program.
USC – Worth It. USC knew when they signed Demar DeRozan that they were unlikely to have this acrobatic swingman on campus for more than one year. For much of that year, however, it wasn’t looking like a good fit. Three points in a loss vs. Seton Hall. A 2-9 shooting night against Missouri. Six turnovers and fouling out of another loss at Washington. But around midseason, as things began to click in DeRozan’s game, USC benefitted. He provided a consistent threat on the wing and may arguably have been the Trojans’ top option in the last six weeks of the season. His season numbers were good – 14/6 on 52% shooting – but his stats from February on were better – 16/7 on 54% shooting with 22 of his season-total 51 assists coming in the last nine games. USC rode DeRozan’s playmaking abilities to win its first-ever Pac-10 Tournament and a convincing win over BC in the NCAAs before succumbing to national runner-up Michigan St in the second round. Or, in others words, more than what OJ Mayo was able to produce as a one-and-doner in 2007. Notwithstanding all the choas that has enveloped this program in the interim, we’d have to say that getting DeRozan to USC for one year was worth it.
Ohio St. – Not Worth It. For the third year in a row, Thad Matta lost a one-and-done player whose actual performance during his only season in Columbus didn’t really mesh with what you might expect from an elite prospect. He lost Daequan Cook in 2007 (along with stars Greg Oden and Mike Conley, Jr.), Kosta Koufos last year, and BJ Mullens this season. To date, we’ve yet to see any indication that Mullens has any discernible basketball skill other than being big (7′0). He averaged 9/5 in about 20 mpg with only two starts over the course of the season, but as an indication of how much Matta ultimately valued him, Mullens’ minutes tailed off considerably in the last 6-8 games. His defense was often considered suspect (37 blks all season) and he earned a reputation for loafing and failing to get back downcourt after an offensive possession. OSU had a solid season, mostly on the back of super-soph Evan Turner, but it’s difficult to construct an argument that Mullens brought much of anything to the Buckeye program other than an ability to get drafted in the first round. Ultimately, that may have been all Matta wanted to get from him, as he’s shown a substantial willingness to take one-and-dones every year that he can. Still, we don’t think that Mullens was on balance a good pickup for the Buckeyes, so we’re saying that he wasn’t worth it.
UCLA – Not Worth It. After Kevin Love’s departure from Westwood as a one-and-done, we thought UCLA might continue that trend this season with another superb guard ranked #2 in his class named Jrue Holiday. We were wrong. Holiday is exceptionally athletic, but he never seemed to ‘get it’ with respect to how Ben Howland runs his team and expects his players to execute. When we watched Holiday play, we saw a player who had a tendency to play out of control and get frustrated when things weren’t going his way (in other words, like most freshmen). Had Holiday stuck around for another couple of years at UCLA, he probably could have tamed his tendencies to become an elite guard in college basketball, but we’ll never know. After averaging a mere 9/4/4 assts as a starter who seriously tailed off down the stretch (single figure points in 10 of his last 13 games) ending in a second round NCAA blowout loss to Villanova, Howland may be questioning why he bothered to take this player for only one season. His contributions to the program were minimal and his general unhappiness with the program could actually end up hurting UCLA’s recruiting in the future more than it ever helps to have gotten him. Unlike Demar DeRozan across town at USC, Holiday wasn’t worth it.
*Brandon Jennings – Push. Of course, this is a weird situation because Jennings didn’t play for an American college last season, instead deciding to go to the Italian leagues and get paid for his services. He would have been drafted higher last season had he been eligible to come out, but then again, so would have all these one-and-doners except for Evans (who at #4 is about where he would have been last year). Playing in Europe didn’t hurt him very much despite his paltry stats, but it didn’t appear to help him, either, in any way other than financially. It’ll be interesting to watch how he develops in the NBA now. You’d have to believe that Jennings’ previously indomitable confidence would be somewhat tempered after spending a year as the backup-cum-waterboy. We’re quite certain he had images in his head of going to Italy and winning MVP in his rookie season, but the broken American basketball system doesn’t exactly inspire schoolboy humility. Will that carry over to his development as an NBA player, or will he be able to accept his European comeuppance and use that to improve his game in the next few years? There’s no way of knowing at this point.
One-and-Dones: Historical Snapshot
As stated above, RTC has done this for the three years in which the one-and-done rule has been in existence. We’ve made a qualitative determination as to whether recruiting a particular one-and-done was worth it for each program, and what we’ve found is that so far it’s been a roughly equivalent proposition. Of the 24 one-and-dones in three years, we’ve found thirteen instances (57%) where the player in question was either worth it or well worth it, “it” being the trouble of landing a top player and dealing with the disruption and potential hole he leaves in the program after one season. Additionally, in seven of the thirteen ‘worth it’ instances, we found that the player was such a great boost to the program in terms of success and marketing that the residual effects of his presence there will be felt for many years after he’s gone (e.g., OSU and Memphis making it to the NCAA Championship Game). On the other hand, we can only count ten occasions (42%) where a one-and-done player wasn’t worth the trouble of getting him into the program. So let’s look at it this way… if you were a college coach and you knew you had a historically better than even chance that recruiting a John Wall or Derrick Favors would end up making your program better, and a 25-30% chance of truly elevating your program into an elite echelon, there’s no question you do it, right? What’s the downside? Your player doesn’t do a whole lot, leaves after one year and you end up where you were before he got there. Exactly. Not only is recruiting one-and-dones worth the risk (so long as you’re doing it legally, Tim Floyd), but if you’re not doing it then you’re putting yourself at a serious competitive disadvantage.
After bringing back the gold from Beijing and watching his Duke teams slide back to the pack, it was widely assumed that Coach K would hand over the reigns to Team USA so he could focus on his Blue Devils. However, Krzyzewski announced late last week that he was interested in coaching Team USA in London in 2012. Although he did not say definitively whether or not he would be pursuing the position, it seems unlikely that he would need to do much campaigning to keep his spot as head coach with the success of the team and the apparent lack of disharmony on the team despite several big names playing sparingly. For us, there are two big questions about the situation:
(1) How will this affect the Duke program?
It will probably hurt them. I don’t really buy the notion that coaching Team USA gets Coach K’s face out there in front of more 5-star guys. I can’t imagine any high school basketball players not knowing about Duke and Coach K. Coaching Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James will certainly give you more street cred than coaching Greg Paulus and Josh McRoberts, but I’m assuming most recruits are aware of the fact that Carmelo and LeBron were really, really, really good before Coach K decided how to tinker with the rotation and their minutes. The bigger impact on Duke will be the absence of Coach K from the recruiting trail. Committing to Team USA will mean that Coach K won’t be on the summer circuit and the guys at ABCD and every other crazy camp out there won’t see him in the stands. While Coach K and the Duke name are still able to land highly touted recruits like Paulus, McRoberts, and Shavlik Randolph (yes, they were all projected to be stars coming out of high school) in recent years he has been unable to land some major targets that he used to land (John Wall comes to mind although it could be argued that it is that he is simply against having one-and-dones).
(2) If Krzyzewski does not seek the position, which coach would be the most likely to replace him on the sideline?
Our top choices would be Tom Izzo, Rick Pitino, Jim Boeheim, John Calipari (no entrance exams required here), Mike D’Antoni and Gregg Popovich. Other than D’Antoni and Popovich, I can’t think of another suitable NBA coach who would be willing to give up his summers to coach a bunch of players that he might be coaching against during the regular season. If Coach K turns down a chance to repeat in London, the question is who Team USA would target as its top choice. Given the standardized test fiasco at Memphis it’s unlikely that Team USA would go with Calipari if other comparable coaches were available. Boeheim is probably the logical choice after serving as an assistant under Coach K, but personally I would like to see Pitino employ a pressing defense with the athletes and depth Team USA could field that would destroy international teams (despite what Malcolm Gladwell thinks).
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