Handicapping the Midseason Battle for the #1 Seeds

Posted by Shane McNichol on January 20th, 2017

The College Football Playoff has caught a lot of flak for a system that rewards four teams in an environment where five power conference champions all feel that they are deserving. The NCAA Tournament with its 68 teams is obviously a lot more inclusive, but the pursuit of the four top seeds shares some of the flaws of the football system. College basketball features a less defined definition of its power conferences, but depending on your opinion of the Big East and American, our landscape features a minimum of six power conference champions which presumably would have a shot at the top line. On top of that, there are always a handful of mid-majors capable of having a stake in selection of the #1 seeds. With the American sitting at eighth in the RPI this season, Cincinnati would likely need to run the table for a chance at a top seed, an unlikely outcome. That leaves seven entrants, loosely defined to include conferences, for only four spots. Let’s examine each in turn.

Are Wisconsin fans gearing up for a possible #1 seed? (Photo by David Stluka)

  • Big Ten. Thanks to a pair of unexpected swoons by Indiana and Michigan State, Purdue and Wisconsin seem to be the only Big Ten teams with a semi-realistic chance of making a run at a #1 seed. However, the margin of error is already thin for both. The Boilermakers have four reasonable losses with wins over Notre Dame and Wisconsin, while the Badgers’ likely best win came at Assembly Hall against a struggling group of Hoosiers. It would be difficult to imagine that these resumes could turn into top-seed material by March. The Big Ten’s best teams appear to have suffered too many hiccups before conference play and are now slowly cannibalizing themselves into the lower seed lines.

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Evaluating Purdue’s Shooting Against Recent Big Ten Teams

Posted by Brendan Brody on January 19th, 2017

As recently as the 2012-13 season, Purdue ranked among the bottom 100 teams nationally (253rd) in three-point shooting. As the team’s perimeter marksmanship has steadily improved since hitting a low point of 32.7 percent the following season, the Boilermakers’ record has tracked correspondingly. Now, at the midpoint of the 2016-17 campaign, Matt Painter’s team is shooting a scorching 40.6 percent from behind the arc, already making 10 or more threes in seven games this season. If Purdue’s hot shooting continues, it has a chance to become one of the best deep shooting teams in the Big Ten over the last five years. How do the Boilermakers compare with the best in the league over this time span? And what does it mean as we slowly turn the corner toward March?

Ryan Cline is one of five Purdue players connecting on over 40 percent from the three-point line. (John Terhune, Journal &Courier).

For the sake of this exercise, three components were analyzed: team three-point percentage; team effective field goal percentage; and the number of players shooting over 40 percent who make at least one three-pointer per game. Ten Big Ten teams have made at least 37.9 percent of their three-point shots since the 2012-13 season. The best of the bunch was last season’s Michigan State squad at 43.4 percent, which led the nation. Purdue’s marksmanship so far this season ties for third. From an eFG perspective, last year’s Indiana team led the nation (58.7%), while Purdue’s 57.0 percent through 19 games comes in behind the Hoosiers. Finally, that same group from Indiana boasted five excellent shooters, as do this year’s Boilermakers. In the aggregate, Purdue finishes no worse than third in any of these metrics, which means that if it maintains the pace, it should definitely be mentioned as one of the best shooting teams in the Big Ten over the last five years. Here’s a look at the data.

  • Indiana 2012-13: (40.3% 3FG, 54.8% eFG, Watford 48.4%, Hulls 44.4%, Oladipo 44.1%)
  • Michigan 2012-13: (37.9% 3FG, 54.6% eFG, Stauskas 44.0%)
  • Michigan 2013-14: (40.2 3FG, 55.7% eFG, Stauskas 44.2%, Irvin 42.5%, Walton 41.0%, LeVert 40.8%)
  • Michigan State 2013-14: (39.2% 3FG, 54.5% eFG, Kaminski 49.4%, Trice 43.4%, Payne 42.3%)
  • Indiana 2014-15: (40.6% 3FG, 54.4% eFG, Hartman 47.5%, Zeisloft 45.0%, Ferrell 41.6%)

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Big Ten Weekend in Review

Posted by Brendan Brody on January 10th, 2017

The second weekend of conference action did nothing to solve the Big Ten puzzle. Wisconsin could have gotten a massive head start in the league race by winning at Purdue, but instead the Badgers were stymied by Matt Painter’s team. Maryland had looked vulnerable in losing a home game to Nebraska, but the Terrapins bounced back by winning at Michigan. Indiana, coming off a three-game losing streak, thoroughly outplayed Illinois in Bloomington and reminded everyone how well the Hoosiers were playing earlier this season. You get the idea. If you like chaos and unpredictability, the Big Ten is your conference this season. Here’s the best and worst of the weekend.

Thomas Bryant did not miss a shot from the field as Indiana beat Illinois on Saturday. (Kelsey Kremer, Des Moines Register).

  • Player of the Weekend: Unlike his sophomore counterpart in West Lafayette who is generating buzz for Player of the Year recognition, Thomas Bryant has not yet broken out this season. His statistics are down across the board, and much of this is attributable to no longer having one of the best point guards in the nation (Yogi Ferrell) to find him in premium scoring situations. It was therefore encouraging that Bryant went for a season-high 20 points and added a team-high six rebounds in Saturday’s 96-80 victory over the Illini. The Hoosiers made a point of finding their big man when Illinois started to make things interesting, and he responded by showcasing some nifty post moves to seal the win. For Indiana to make its way back to the top of the Big Ten, it will need to get Bryant going down low more frequently.

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Three Biggest Surprises & Disappointments in the Big Ten

Posted by Brendan Brody on January 3rd, 2017

Each and every season people like myself who cover college basketball make predictions as to how the season will go. Each and every season people like myself are wrong. What follows are three of the biggest surprises and disappointments in the Big Ten so far this season. Whether they will hold true over the next two months is anybody’s guess.

Three Surprises

  1. Caleb Swanigan, Purdue: That the Purdue sophomore is having a massive impact this season isn’t the surprise — the surprise, rather, is in the level of dominance he has displayed 14 games into the season. Swanigan is averaging 18.5 PPG, 13.0 RPG and 2.9 APG in high-possession usage, while shooting 41 percent from the three-point line, 59 percent inside the arc and converting 77 percent of his free throws. He has already notched four 20/20 games in points and rebounds, including a few flirtations with a triple-double. Swanigan made the preseason All-Big Ten team with good reason after a freshman campaign where he led the conference in rebounds, but his play to this point makes him the early frontrunner for Big Ten Player of the Year.

    Caleb Swanigan has played like a potential All-American so far this season. . (AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)

    Caleb Swanigan has played like a potential All-American so far this season. . (AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)

  2. Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights were 44-84 over the last four seasons and that’s why little was expected of them despite adding a new coach (Steve Pikiell) and some impact newcomers this year. An 11-2 non-conference record has ceded to an 0-2 start in the Big Ten (losses at Wisconsin and vs. Penn State), but Rutgers should be commended on the defensive end for protecting the rim (ranking among the nation’s best 25 teams in two-point field goal percentage defense and block percentage). Someone on this microsite mentioned that the Scarlet Knights’ goal this season should be to win 10 games and a 15-win season seems reasonable on this trajectory. In a position that requires a certain kind of coach, Pikiell appears to be the right person to eventually turn this program around. Read the rest of this entry »
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Should Purdue Think About Going Small?

Posted by Jim Root on December 28th, 2016

Entering the season, West Lafayette, Indiana, had a fairly legitimate claim to possession of the best collegiate frontcourt in college basketball (apologies to Wisconsin and a couple of other teams). Between incredibly versatile swingman Vince Edwards, half-man/half-Terminator center Isaac Haas, and former five-star power forward and Big Ten POY candidate Caleb Swanigan, the Boilermakers had the bodies to own the paint in most any match-up.

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Vince Edwards, Isaac Haas and Caleb Swanigan provide a potent trio up front for the Boilermakers .(Associated Press)

Despite all of that front line talent, though, head coach Matt Painter has faced an interesting decision in how to deploy his best three players. Playing them at the 3-4-5 spots gives the Boilermakers a massive size advantage, but there are drawbacks with that lineup too. Haas, for example, can be a liability on both ends of the floor when pulled outside of the paint, and his presence on the offensive end — despite being a major weapon in drawing fouls and double-teams — can clog up the lane for the more dynamic Swanigan. To his credit, Swanigan has developed his outside shot to the point of greater respectability (52 percent from three-point range this season, compared with 29 percent last year), which resolves some of the prior spacing issues. But Painter’s tradeoff of playing Swanigan with Haas usually takes him out of the interior, where his combination of strength and quickness make him a match-up nightmare for most defenders.

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Six Big Ten X-Factors Heading Into Conference Play

Posted by Brendan Brody on December 26th, 2016

Conference play is almost here, and after a 138-42 (.767) combined non-conference start, Big Ten teams will begin squaring off against each other tomorrow afternoon. As of right now, it looks like three front-runners (Wisconsin, Purdue and Indiana) have emerged, followed by a group of good-not-great teams competing for the top of the next tier — a glance at the most recent KenPom ratings reveals eight teams ranked within the NCAA Tournament at-large sweet spot of #29-#68. With things so relatively even, a number of x-factors around the league could very well swing the race with improved performances. Here are six players who could heavily influence how the Big Ten standings ultimately end up.

Carsen Edwards (USA Today Images)

Carsen Edwards is a Possible X-Factor For Purdue (USA Today Images)

  • Carsen Edwards, Purdue: One of the reasons why Purdue is a perceived title threat is because the majority of their players are reasonably consistent. Edwards, however, is the biggest wild card in the rotation, and his continuing development could be the key for the Boilermakers in March. Since the freshman moved into the starting lineup on December 3, he has averaged 9.3 PPG and a couple assists per outing. His shooting can stand to improve, but he’s a blur in the open court and causes havoc defensively on the perimeter. If Edwards can become a more efficient scorer during Big Ten play (95.0 Offensive Rating on 24.9 percent usage), Purdue’s offense (as well as the team) could move into the top 10 nationally.
  • D’Mitrik Trice, Wisconsin: With five returning starters this season, little was expected from Wisconsin’s lone true freshman. And yet Trice has been an efficient and capable third guard off the bench, including some outstanding shooting from deep so far (18-of-30 3FG). He has basically stolen the minutes that were going to Jordan Hill last season, and if he continues to give the Badgers another backcourt option beyond Bronson Koenig and Zak Showalter, Wisconsin could make another run at the Final Four.

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2016-17 RTC Top 25: Week Five

Posted by Walker Carey on December 19th, 2016

As we approach the end of the non-conference portion of the regular season, three RTC25 teams over the weekend earned noteworthy resume-enhancing wins over three other RTC25 teams. First, #14 Purdue used great interior play from sophomore forward Caleb Swanigan to overcome a 14-point halftime deficit in an 86-81 victory over #22 Notre Dame. In the follow-up game at the Crossroads Classic, #13 Butler used a dynamic performance from junior Kelan Martin to beat #14 Indiana by five points. In Saturday’s – and likely the season’s – best game, #6 Kentucky rode freshman guard Malik Monk’s insane 47-point game to a hard fought 103-100 triumph over #8 North Carolina. Conference play is just around the corner, but there is still a little time for some teams to notch a few more non-conference wins that will matter on Selection Sunday. This week’s Quick N’ Dirty Analysis of the RTC25 is after the jump.

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Quick N’ Dirty Analysis.

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Big Ten Weekend Look Ahead: 12.16.16 Edition

Posted by Alex Moscoso (@AlexPMoscoso) on December 16th, 2016

We might as well call tomorrow Super Saturday because five of the games involving Big Ten teams are as intriguing of a slate as in recent memory. In addition to the always-enjoyable Crossroads Classic in Indianapolis involving Purdue and Indiana, three other league schools will face off against potential NCAA Tournament teams. This provides each team with a golden non-conference opportunity to a land a resume-enhancing win and build some momentum heading into league play the week after Christmas. Here’s the Weekend Look Ahead:

Caleb Swanigan has a chance to wreak havoc in the paint in the Crosstown Classic against a smaller Notre Dame team. (AP).

Caleb Swanigan has a chance to wreak havoc in the Crossroads Classic against a smaller Notre Dame team. (AP)

  • #21 Notre Dame vs. #15 Purdue (Saturday 2:00 PM ET, ESPN2). With all four teams ranked, the Crossroads Classic couldn’t ask for a better slate. The annual event tips off with Notre Dame’s high-powered offense facing off against Purdue. While the Boilermakers have been impressive all season, they’ve fallen just short in their two chances against elite competition – losing close games to #1 Villanova and #11 Louisville. If Matt Painter‘s group can establish its inside-out game between Caleb Swanigan and outside threats Dakota Mathias and Ryan Cline, in addition to submitting a respectable defensive performance, the Boilermakers will walk out of Bankers Life Fieldhouse with their best win of the season.

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Dakota Mathias is Purdue’s Unsung Hero

Posted by Brendan Brody on December 8th, 2016

Purdue is off to a strong 7-2 start with the losses coming in close contests to top 15 teams Villanova and Louisville. From what we’ve seen so far, the Boilermakers have established that they’re on a short list of teams that look like they can win the Big Ten and make a run into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Isaac Haas and Caleb Swanigan are the stars who deserve first billing, but it’s also time to note the significant improvement that junior guard Dakota Mathias has made in becoming one of the league’s best shooters as well as the steady hand guiding Purdue’s offense.

Dakota Mathias has been one of the best deep shooters in the B1G this season. (John Terhune, Journal &Courier).

Dakota Mathias has been one of the best deep shooters in the B1G this season. (John Terhune, Journal & Courier)

Mathias has always been a strong long-range shooter, as his 38.6 percent mark from three-point range last season shows. But he’s taken it to another level so far this year, connecting on 24-of-43 threes (55.8%) and sporting one of the nation’s best Offensive Ratings (133.4). More than just a bomber, he has also led the team in assists four times and averages around four rebounds and a steal per outing. And even though he has also increased his turnovers (up nearly six percent over last season), Purdue owns the 14th most efficient offense in the land because it shoots the ball so well all over the court. Mathias leads a corps of shooters such as Ryan Cline, PJ Thompson and Vincent Edwards, all of whom are shooting better than 39 percent from deep. Purdue’s ability to shoot the ball from three-point range so well (44.8%, third nationally) gives the big men Swanigan and Haas numerous easy looks in the post.

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Big Ten Feast Week Winners and Losers

Posted by Brendan Brody on November 28th, 2016

After 10 days of games in eight different tournaments, the picture as to how things will play out in this season’s Big Ten has become clearer. It is still somewhat murky and disjointed, but Feast Week gave us some insights as to the ceilings and floors for each squad. Here’s a brief look at which teams helped their cause last week and those that came away looking like they still have considerable work to do.

Winners

  • Maryland: While not playing in the most prestigious of events, Maryland was able to pick up wins over Richmond and Kansas State in the Barclays Center Classic. Neither were huge resume boosters, but they should help come March rather than hurt. The Terps pounded the offensive backboards all weekend, snatching an average of 40 percent of their own misses in the two victories. The most significant aspect of Maryland’s performances was that Mark Turgeon’s freshmen trio of Anthony Cowan, Kevin Huerter and Justin Jackson all played heavy crunch time minutes in a pair of tight games. Their continued improvement will largely determine the arc of the Terrapins’ season.
Justin Jackson helped lead Maryland to two wins in Brooklyn last weekend. (Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports).

Justin Jackson helped lead Maryland to two wins in Brooklyn last weekend. (Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports).

  • Michigan: The shine from the Wolverines’ two wins at the beginning of Feast Week lost some of its luster when they lost at South Carolina last Wednesday. Concentrating solely on their play in the 2k Classic, however, Michigan looked like it could be a serious threat to finish in the top three of the Big Ten. DJ Wilson’s defensive versatility was on full display, as he successfully guarded almost every position on the floor. The Wolverines held both Marquette and SMU under 1.00 point per possession and under 39 percent shooting from the field. They also hit 22 three-pointers and paired stellar outside shooting with their typical runs that led to easy buckets. Overall, Feast Week was a net plus for John Beilein’s team.

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