Saturday, March 20 (all CBS)
1:05pm - Villanova vs. St. Mary's
3:20pm - Butler vs. Murray St
3:35pm - Tennessee vs. Ohio
5:40pm - Kansas vs. Northern Iowa
5:45pm - Baylor vs. Old Dominion
5:50pm - New Mexico vs. Washington
8:10pm - Kansas St vs. BYU
8:15pm - Kentucky vs. Wake Forest
Over the next two days in a series of separate posts, RTC will break down all 32 of the first round games using our best analytical efforts to understand these teams, the matchups and their individual strengths and weaknesses. Our hope is that you’ll let us know in the comments where you agree, disagree or otherwise think we’ve lost our collective minds. Here are the Friday afternoon games.
12:15 pm – #2 West Virginia vs. #15 Morgan State (Buffalo pod)
West Virginia enters the NCAA Tournament as one of the hottest teams in the nation. They squeaked out an enormous road win at Villanova to end the regular season then swept through Cincinnati, Notre Dame and Georgetown en route to a Big East championship riding the heroics of Da’Sean Butler. The Mountaineers are an extremely gifted rebounding team; in fact, sometimes their best offense comes after a missed shot. They feature multiple weapons that can step out and shoot a mid-range jumper or three from Wellington Smith to Kevin Jones to the all-around dynamo Butler. Also, few teams can match West Virginia’s intensity in the halfcourt defensively. Morgan State head coach Todd Bozeman will need a gigantic scoring output from their own star, Baltimore native Reggie Holmes. Holmes scored 25 or more points fifteen times this season, averaging 21.3 PPG and ranking in the top-50 in percentage of shots taken. The Bears also feature a rugged forward named Kevin Thompson who comes in at fifth in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. In fact, Morgan State ranks 11th in the country as a team in that very category. Unfortunately for the underdogs, West Virginia is never outworked on the glass, not with Jones, Devin Ebanks and Bob Huggins prominently involved.
The Skinny: This one shouldn’t be close from the tip. Morgan State dominated the MEAC all season, but West Virginia is flying high at this point. Expect the Mountaineers to dominate by 25-30 points.
12:25 pm – #6 Xavier vs. #11 Minnesota (Milwaukee pod)
The answer to which team will win this game depends entirely on which Gopher team shows up to play in Milwaukee. Will it be the defensive juggernaut that held Purdue to 11 first half points last Saturday, or will it be the team that got obliterated by Ohio State 52-29 in the second half on Sunday? Tubby Smith’s team has been schizophrenic like that all year, following up strong wins with disastrous performances (two losses to Michigan? really?), which probably explains why they were a bubble team up until Sunday evening. Xavier comes into this one with the stronger resume, but it’s difficult to say if the Musketeers are the better team. When he plays under control, XU’s Jordan Crawford is a talent, and his supporting case of Jason Love on the interior and Terrell Holloway running the show makes for nice balance throughout the Xavier lineup. The question we have is who will win the defensive battle, though. Xavier defends the three really well, while Minnesota behind Blake Hoffarber and Lawrence Westbrook both shoot it equally as well. This game is essentially a tossup (Vegas agrees, setting Minny as a one-point favorite), and we really liked the first seven halves of basketball that the Gophers put up in Indianapolis on a neutral floor last week, so we’re going with the extremely mild 6/11 upset here, in a close game that comes down to the last possession.
The Skinny: Despite the seedings, this is a tossup game and we like the Gophers to win it on the last possession.
Each day this week during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament we’re asking some of our top correspondents to put together a collection of notes and interesting tidbits about each region. If you know of something that we should include in tomorrow’s submission, hit us up at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.
South Region Notes(Patrick Sellars)
The first “upset” of the tournament occurred in the South Region when SWAC champion Arkansas Pine-Bluff took down the Big South tournament champion Winthrop, 61-44. The Golden Lions earned the right to play top seeded Duke on Friday night.
When #9 Louisville takes on #8 California on Friday night, Louisville head coach Rick Pitino says he’ll be ready for the Bears’ “organized chaos.” There is also an interesting quote in the article from Cardinals’ guard Edgar Sosa that says he has heard Cal referred to as “poor man’s Marquette”.
Utah State’s leading scorer, junior guard Tai Wesley,broke his nose in the WAC tournament final on Saturday when the Aggies got pounded by New Mexico State. He will play in the Aggies’ upcoming game versus Texas A&M, but you have to wonder what kind of effect it will have on USU’s star. On TAMU’s side, they will have Dash Harris back in the lineup after he missed the Big 12 Tournament with a bone bruise in his right wrist. Head coach Mark Turgeon said that if his team wants any chance to win this weekend, they will need Harris healthy.
Fran McCaffery is not letting his Siena team think they can beat Purdue by just showing up in Spokane on Friday. He says Purdue is by far the best team Siena will face all season even without Robbie Hummel. You’d have to think a Butler Bulldogs fan would think otherwise.
Here is an interesting article from The Times-Picayune which highlights the #3Baylor vs. #14Sam Houston State game. Not only are the two teams from Texas, but they have two New Orleans natives returning to their home town for the first round. Star senior guards Tweety Carter (Baylor) and Ashton Mitchell (Sam Houston State) both played their high school ball in The Big Easy.
Villanova head coach Jay Wrighttold the Philadelphia Inquirer about his team’s lackluster play in first round games the past two seasons. Wright said “we’ve survived first-round games, but we really haven’t played well in first-round games.”
This is the first of our four quick-and-dirty region breakdowns. This will serve to help the quick triggers who like to fill out their brackets first thing on Monday morning. For the rest of you, we’ll be providing more detailed game-by-game analysis throughout the rest of the week.
Reliant Stadium Hosts the South Regional
Region: South
Favorite: Duke, #1 seed, 29-5. Yeah, I know it isn’t shocking that they are the favorites especially in what many are calling the weakest of the four regions, but the Blue Devils have a solid combination of perimeter talent (albeit limited in numbers) and interior players (quantity more than quality, but still something). With the way Jon Scheyer has been playing this season and the sudden re-emergence of Kyle Singler in the ACC Tournament, Coach K and the Blue Devils should have their sights set on Indianapolis.
Should They Falter: Villanova, #2 seed, 24-7. A Final Four team last year, the Wildcats had the appearance of a Final Four team a month ago (many will still pick them now), but after losing five of their last seven games to close the season some of that luster has worn off. Still we would be remiss not to list them here as all but one of those losses came on the road (neutral site in one case to a #6 seed) against a team that is in the NCAA, another team with a top-3 seed and another to a UConn team back when Jim Calhoun’s players still cared.
Grossly Overseeded: California, #8 seed, 23-10. I know they won the Pac-10 regular season, but as you may have heard the Pac-10 was awful this year. When we asked Mike Montgomery about the possibility that the Bears might miss the NCAA Tournament this year he was perturbed. While he might have made it into the NCAA Tournament it does not erase the fact that they did not beat a single team in the top 50 of the RPI ratings. The Bears might deserve a spot in the NCAA Tournament, but I think most people would agree that they have not earned a seed this high.
Grossly Underseeded: Siena, #13 seed, 27-6. This might be where they deserve to be seeded based on their resume this year, but this is the team with the most “growth potential.” The Saints struggled in their conference final, but they have won first round games as an underdog in each of the past two years. Last year they knocked off Ohio State as a #9 seed and the year before knocked off Vanderbilt as a #13 seed. With an experienced squad they would be a tough out as a #13 seed in any bracket.
Sweet Sixteen Sleeper (#12 seed or lower): Siena. Like we said they won their first round games each of the past two years and there might not be a team more set-up to be upset in the first round than the Robbie Hummel-less PurdueBoilermakers. If they get past Matt Painter’s crew, they will play the winner of the Texas A&M and Utah State. It won’t be an easy second round game, but since it is in Spokane, Washington, we can’t imagine that either team will have a huge following there (although Utah State could conceivably travel up there).
From today until Selection Sunday, keep checking Rush the Court for updates on who’s in, who’s out and seeding.
UPDATES ALL DAY TODAY. FINAL BRACKET REVEALED JUST BEFORE 6 PM ET.
(Note: each of the four teams in one seed grouping is listed in pecking order in terms of who is closer to moving up a seed line. This is used to determine game location and matchups similar to Joe Lunardi’s S-Curve listing).
#13 Seeds: Murray State, New Mexico State, Oakland, Houston
#14 Seeds: Wofford, Sam Houston State, Ohio, Montana
#15 Seeds: Morgan State, UC-Santa Barbara, North Texas, Vermont
#16 Seeds: Robert Morris, East Tennessee State, Lehigh, Winthrop, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Last Four In: California, Utah State, Minnesota, Illinois
Last Four Out: Mississippi State, Florida, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall
Bids per conference: Big East (8), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (6), ACC (5), Mountain West (4), SEC (3), Atlantic 10 (3), Pac-10 (2), West Coast (2), WAC (2), C-USA (2).
Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist. He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next two months days.
First, a note: Remember to play Selection Sunday Challenge over at NCAA.com to be your own Bracketologist on Selection Sunday. You can even create a group, go up against your college hoops buddies and fill out exactly how you think the bracket will shake out. I’ve been lucky enough to represent Rush the Court in an Experts league this year. The best part: it’s completely free.
Some changes to look out for today: Vanderbilt and Tennessee both have the opportunity to pass Baylor and possibly Villanova if they win their semifinal SEC Tournament games today. Vanderbilt takes on bubble squad Mississippi State and Tennessee looks to make it two out of three against Kentucky. While the Vandy win wouldn’t be tremendous, it would move them closer to Baylor. Tennessee would be a lock for a #3 seed if they downed Kentucky twice and Kansas once along with a solid resume overall.
West Virginia is inching closer and closer to Duke for the final #1 seed. Regardless of what Duke does in the ACC Tournament, the Mountaineers may have enough to pass Duke if they take the Big East crown. Here’s the comparison:
Duke: 27-5 (14-3), 2 RPI, 9 SOS, 41 non-conf SOS, 1-3 vs. RPI 1-25, 6-1 vs. RPI 26-50, 8-1 vs. RPI 51-100
West Virginia: 26-6 (15-5), 4 RPI, 4 SOS, 23 non-conf SOS, 4-4 vs. RPI 1-25, 3-1 vs. RPI 26-50, 9-1 vs. RPI 51-100
I have a hard time seeing Ohio State or Kansas State passing Duke, but I can always re-evaluate on Sunday afternoon.
Conversely, if Georgetown should win the title on Saturday, they have a chance at garnering a #3 seed on Selection Sunday, moving up three seed lines during the Big East Tournament alone.
The Pac-10 final between lock California and bubble-in Washington in all likelihood eliminates another potential bid stealer. Houston takes on lock UTEP in the Conference USA final looking to take a spot away from our last team in, Seton Hall. Rhode Island downing Temple would likely vault them into the field much like San Diego State’s win over New Mexico on Friday. Illinois moves into lock status by beating Ohio State today and Minnesota will be right there if they can topple Purdue. Mississippi State can move into Last Four Out status by beating Vanderbilt, but I feel as though their resume is less impressive than others.
On The Bubble: San Diego State, Virginia Tech
Last Four In: Illinois, Washington, Florida, Seton Hall
Last Four Out: Mississippi, Rhode Island, Minnesota, Memphis
Still Alive: Mississippi State, Arizona State
Bids per conference: Big East (9), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (5), SEC (4), Mountain West (4), Atlantic 10 (3), Pac-10 (2), West Coast (2).
The big thing from the past week.Big Ten season ends in three way tie. Exciting as the seesaw race was all year, it ended in melodramatic fashion as both Purdue and Michigan State hung on after Ohio State had already won out several days prior. The Boilers and Spartans took care of business, beating teams they were supposed to beat. Michigan State racked up back to back banners, but the big story is that this was the first title for Purdue since 1996. Now to see how many teams can go to the dance based on their performance in the Big Ten tournament. Four Big Ten teams are in the top 25: #5 Ohio State, #6 Purdue, #11 Michigan State, and #13 Wisconsin.
Power Rankings (final)
Ohio State 24-7, 14-4
Purdue 26-4, 14-4
Michigan State 24-7, 14-4
Wisconsin 23-7, 13-5
Illinois 18-13, 10-8
Minnesota 18-12, 9-9
Northwestern 19-12, 7-11
Michigan 14-16, 7-11
Iowa 10-21, 4-14
Indiana 10-20, 4-14
Penn State 11-19, 3-15
Big Ten Tournament – Indianapolis – March 11th-14th
First Round
#9 Iowa vs. #8 Michigan – March 11 – 2:30 ET – ESPN2 – This game could really go either way. The first game was a 14-point victory for Michigan at home, whereas the second game was a two-point victory in OT for Michigan on the road. For Michigan, Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims both had at least 20 in each game, so look for that to continue. For Iowa, Aaron Fuller played well in the first game, but went crazy for 30 in the second game. Matt Gatens was absent in the first game, but exploded for 21 in the second game. Michigan comes in having lost four of six games while Iowa has lost the past five of six games. Iowa should do well inside in this game, but I think Michigan has finally figured out that they can’t rely totally on threes, so I am going with Michigan in this one.
#10 Indiana vs. #7 Northwestern – March 11 – 4:55 ET – ESPN2 – This game will most likely go to Northwestern. It is just too difficult to win two games against the same team within a week’s time, especially for a team as inconsistent as Indiana has been all year. The big thing Indiana has going for itself in this game and for this tournament is that they are essentially the home town team, especially if they are able to fill Lucas Oil Stadium with Indiana fans. If not, I think Northwestern has too much John Shurna and too much Michael Thompson for IU to handle. I also think Northwestern will make the adjustments on Jordan Hulls to stop his flurry of threes.
#11 Penn State vs. #6 Minnesota – March 11 – 7:30 ET – I am going with Minnesota in this one. They have really come on strong to close out the season, winning four of their last six games, including a 35-point drubbing of Iowa. Both of the matchups between these teams during the regular year were close victories for Minnesota, so I expect this one to be close because it is on neutral ground, and I wouldn’t expect either of the team’s fans to come out in droves. Penn State will need Chris Babb to have a big game along with Talor Battle and David Jackson, while Minnesota needs a consistent performance from Westbrook, Sampson, Hoffarber, and Johnson. The X-factor for Minnesota is Devoe Joseph who struggled in both contests. If he can step up then Minnesota wins easily; if not they will win in a close battle.
The rush of conference awards are rolling in… here are some conference POYs that were announced on Monday: James Anderson, Oklahoma State(Big 12); Jerome Randle, California (Pac-10); Evan Turner, Ohio State (Big 10); Darington Hobson, New Mexico (Mtn West); Kevin Anderson, Richmond (A10). As for conference COY: Matt Painter, Purdue (Big Ten); Steve Alford, New Mexico (Mtn West); Herb Sendek, Arizona State (Pac-10), Frank Martin, Kansas State (Big 12), Fran Dunphy, Temple (A10). The ACC, Big East and SEC are expected to announce their choices on Tuesday.
At the national level, The Sporting News has selected Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim as its national COY, and has listed their all-americans. Their first team has five guards on it — John Wall, Kentucky (also FrOY); Greivis Vasquez, Maryland; Evan Turner, Ohio State; Scottie Reynolds, Villanova; James Anderson, Oklahoma State. Of course, we think that’s cheating, and RTC will have its position-specific AA team later this week. Watch for it.
Next year’s Coaches vs. Cancer Classic will feature Pittsburgh, Maryland, Texas and Illinois as the four regional hosts who are slotted into the semifinals at Madison Square Garden the week before Thanksgiving. This could be a very interesting and talented field if the majority of underclassmen on these teams decide to stick around, as they should. Maryland and Texas lose some key pieces in Vasquez, Milbourne, James and Pittman, respectively, but there are a bunch of really good underclassmen on all of these teams.
Talk about really early entry. Seattle University’s Charles Garcia is wasting absolutely no time in declaring his intention to go pro this spring. Seattle is an Independent, so their season is now over unless the Redhawks are invited to one of the lower postseason tournaments such as the CBI or CIT. What is most notable about Garcia aside from his 19/8 scoring/rebounding average is his ability to draw fouls from the defense. Garcia picks up an astonishing 10.6 fouls per game on his defenders, which as you may imagine, puts the 6′9 forward at the line nearly ten times per game.
As always, here’s some great analytical work from Vegas Watch, who takes an alternative (and much more defensible) approach to seeding the field of 65. Keep fighting the good fight, VW, with logic, reason and most importantly, data.
Folks, it’s March and we’re now approximately eight days until Selection Sunday sets the sports world on fire. By our count, there are about twenty teams fighting for half as many at-large spots, and this weekend’s games will have increased importance in the all-too-important ’sniff test.’ The NCAA Selection Committee is made of humans just like the rest of us, and if they see a couple of teams look great on tv this weekend, it could be the little extra push needed to earn a Dance card next Sunday. But it’s not just about those so-called bubble teams; it’s also about positioning. Which team will step up in the last week to grab the likely one remaining #1 seed, along with Syracuse, Kansas and Kentucky? Who will be able to secure a top four regional seed in order to play closer to home? There are so many questions unanswered still remaining. Today is the last Saturday of the regular season, and as always, we’ll be with you on Boom Goes the Dynamite throughout the day. Below are the key games we plan on keeping an eye on — of special note is that three more automatic bids will be delivered today, in the Big South, Atlantic Sun and Ohio Valley Conferences.
Noon – West Virginia @ Villanova on CBS – RTC Live
Noon -Texas A&M @ Oklahoma on ESPN
Noon – Cincinnati @ Georgetown on ESPN360
1 pm – Tulsa @ Memphis on CBS College Sports
1:30 pm – Maryland @ Virginia on ESPN360
2 pm – Kansas @ Missouri on CBS
2 pm – Syracuse @ Louisville on ESPN
2 pm – Notre Dame @ Marquette on ESPN360
2 pm – UConn @ USF on The Big East Network
2 pm – Notre Dame @ Marquette on The Big East Network
2 pm – South Carolina @ Vanderbilt on ESPN2
4 pm- UCLA @ Arizona State on CBS
4 pm – Texas @ Baylor on ESPN
4 pm – Big South Championship: Winthrop vs. Coastal Carolina on ESPN2
4 pm – Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech on ESPN360
6 pm – Tennessee @ Mississippi State on ESPN
6 pm – Atlantic Sun Championship: ETSU @ Mercer on ESPN2
8 pm – OVC Championship: Murray State vs. Morehead State on ESPN2
9 pm – UNC @ Duke on ESPN
9 pm – New Mexico State @ Utah State on ESPN360
We will be back at 11 AM for our continuing coverage so check back then and feel free to comment or ask questions in the comment section.
11:00: Nice showing by the Duke student for GameDay. Not going to be Kentucky because of the smaller student body and smaller arena.
11:10: Ugh. Speedo guy segment coming on GameDay. I will be switching the channel for a few minutes when that segment is going to start. Way to show segments that your audience will be interested in. Would they do a “Bikini girl” segment or would that not be PC?
11:20: Coach K does not approve of “Speedo guy”. I think we have finally found something that UNC fans will agree with him on. Seriously ESPN. Why are you featuring this idiot?
11:25: Be back in 5 minutes. Tell me when it is over.
11:30: Back again. Knight does not look amused, which amuses me.
11:45: So Sherron Collins was a great athlete in high school, plays video games, and like macaroni. I’m glad we found that out. Why can’t GameDay do legit segments like the one on the Syracuse zone they did earlier this year?
Noon: Hubert picks UNC. Big surprise. Knight and Bilas are calling for a Duke beat down. I’d go with something in between the two.
12:05: Three interesting games on right now none of which is the FSU-Miami game that ESPN2 decided to show over Cincinnati-Georgetown. The best of the three games is clearly the West Virginia-Villanova game, which we are doing a RTC Live for so be sure to check that out.
12:15: Interesting news: Both Luke Harangody and Austin Freeman will play today according to Seth Davis and Jeff Goodman respectively.
Close Calls. In two closer-than-expected games, #12 Michigan State and #18 Pittsburgh held on to their positions in the Big Ten and Big East, respectively, with quite a bit still on the line. For MSU, it’s a shot at a shared Big Ten regular season title; for Pitt, it was a double-bye in the Big East Tournament next week.
#18 Pittsburgh 73, Providence 71. In a closely contested game throughout, it was Ashton Gibbs who saved Pittsburgh from what would have been their worst loss of the season at full strength (the IU loss in December was without several players). With 3.5 seconds remaining, Gibbs (25/4/3 assts) received the ball at the right hash mark on the opposite end of his basket, took two dribbles before stopping and pulling up from about 28 feet to drain a game-winning three at the horn. The bucket moved the Panthers to 12-5 in the Big East, and with a win over Rutgers this weekend in combination with a Villanova loss to WVU, the preseason-unranked kids from the Steel City would be the #2 seed in next week’s Big East Tournament. Simply amazing considering the talent in that league this year.
Ashton Gibbs: "I Got This." (PPG/M. Freed)
#12 Michigan State 67, Penn State 65. We’re really not going to fall into this trap that Tom Izzo likes to set for us seemingly every year. His teams always win a bunch of games, but many of those wins seem to come by a mere point or two, and they also lose a few more than you might expect. Then the Spartans get into the NCAA Tournament and the very same players who were somewhat underwhelming during the regular season put it all together for another run to the Final Four. So we’ll reserve judgment on this year’s MSU team until we see what happens later this month. Tonight Penn State had the ball with five seconds remaining but they were unable to get a shot off to win or tie the game. With the win, MSU moves to 13-4 in the Big Ten and the Spartans will host rival Michigan this weekend to try to tie Ohio State (and possibly Purdue) for the top record in the league.
Should Washington Join the Bubble Conversation Along With Ole Miss, Dayton and Arizona State?
Washington 86, Oregon 72. With an RPI of #53, twenty wins, and a better strength of schedule than its bubble peers Mississippi State and Virginia Tech, shouldn’t the Huskies at least be in the conversation? They’ve beaten Texas A&M, Portland and Cal, which is a resume of quality Ws at least as good as Mississippi State (best win: Old Dominion), Dayton (best win: Xavier) and Virginia Tech (best win: Clemson). We’re well aware how down the Pac-10 has been this year, but just because everyone has already seemed to decide that it’s a one-bid league shouldn’t make it necessarily so. The resumes need to speak for themselves, and we’re having trouble understanding the difference between the above teams. Quincy Pondexter had 34/10/6 assts in tonight’s win.
Even though ESPN likes to hype up its Bracketbuster day, the fact is that the last few weeks of the season act like an elimination tournament with teams moving in and out of the NCAA Tournament, while other teams move up and down on a daily basis. While each and every game could theoretically have an impact on the Bubble and NCAA seeding, there are a few games that matter more than the others which we will feature over the next two weeks leading up to the conference tournaments. We will feature these in two posts per week. The first will be a post released on Sunday night for games from Monday through Thursday, and the second will be a post released on Thursday night for games from Friday through Sunday.
Tenth Georgia Tech at Clemson on Raycom/ESPN Full Court at 8 PM on Tuesday – This game is important not just for NCAA seeding, but also for ACC seeding. Both teams are currently occupying a position in the ACC standings where they could easily rank anywhere from 3rd in the conference all the way down to 7th in the conference. That conference rank could be the difference between having to play Duke or having to play UNC (ok, I’ll admit that was a cheap shot Tar Heel fans) early in the ACC Tournament. As you would expect from fairly similar teams, they both sit in the middle of most brackets. I could see either one going as high as a 6-seed or as low as a 9-seed when Selection Sunday roles around and these head-to-head match-ups will play a huge role in where they fit in the bracket.
Ninth Memphis at UAB on Comcast Sports South at 9 PM on Wednesday – It still seems incredible after all these years of John Calipari’s teams dominating Conference USA that the Tigers are no longer dominating CUSA any more. In fact, these two Conference USA teams will be playing for more than the #2 seed in the CUSA Tournament (UTEP is in the driver’s seat for the #1 seed) when they meet in Birmingham. They might be playing for an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament as well. Most bracketologists have the Blazers as one of their last teams in while the Tigers are one of the last teams out. A win by Josh Pastner’s squad could cause the teams to flip positions into and out of the bracket overnight. Normally I might make this game even higher, but I’m not buying the UTEP Kool-Aid and the loser could still get in with either a win in the conference tournament over the other or could potentially win the CUSA Tournament outright.
Eighth Oklahoma State at #24 Texas A&M on ESPN at 9 PM on Wednesday – Both teams are coming off huge home wins. Now the question is whether they can sustain the momentum. The Cowboys will need to show they can win away from the land of perpetual T. Boone Pickens money and the Aggies will need to show they can win against a team that isn’t collapsing. Both teams are currently in a group of five Big 12 teams with in-conference records of either 8-6 or 9-5. A win here or there could mean the difference between finishing 3rd in the conference or finishing 7th in the conference and even though OSU has a win over KU everybody in the Big 12 (and the country) wants to avoid the Jayhawks for as long as possible in any tournament (Big 12 or NCAA). Right now both teams are in the 6-8 seed range, but a hot or cold streak to finish the season could mean anywhere from a 5-seed to a 10-seed for these two teams.
Seventh #19 Vanderbilt at Florida on ESPN at 7 PM on Tuesday – The Gators are coming off a tough two-point loss at Georgia, but their prior three-game winning streak has assured them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Now they are entering a two-game stretch (home versus Vanderbilt then at Kentucky) where it might appear that they can only help their NCAA seed and a win could boost them 2-3 spots, but if they lose these two and their opener in the SEC Tournament a four-game losing streak might be enough to take them to the NIT for the third straight year. As for the Commodores, they have a treacherous two-game finish in Gainesville then at home against Devan Downey and company. They are currently chasing a #3 or #4 seed, but a loss in either of those games could cripple their chances at getting a top-4 seed (barring an upset victory over Kentucky in the SEC Tournament). Technically they still have a chance of winning the SEC regular season title (if they win out and the Wildcats finish on a 3-game losing streak), but we don’t see that happening.
Can Chandler Parsons and his Gators shoot their way into the field?
Sixth #9 Villanova at Cincinnati on ESPN2 at 7 PM on Tuesday – The question here is how these teams respond to difficult loses on Saturday. Villanova’s loss was more visible and watched (by just about everyone in upstate New York–aka everything outside of NYC), but the Bearcats suffered a difficult loss in Morgantown where they blew a 2nd half lead before falling just short. The Wildcats loss likely will keep them out of a #1 seed, but the Bearcats loss might be enough to keep them out the NCAA Tournament altogether. A win here for Villanova would be big to ensure that they stay on the 2-seed line while Cincinnati needs a win here and probably at Georgetown along with 1 or 2 wins in the Big East Tournament to punch their ticket to the Big Dance.
Syracuse Poised to Move to #1. Remember the paucity of insanity we were lamenting in this space last weekend? No longer. Although the calendar still officially says February, March arrived in earnest on Saturday. In what was probably the single best weekend of the entire college hoops season (and hopefully portends a month of craziness), the top three teams in the media/coaches polls were vanquished. By 2:15 pm Saturday afternoon, #2 Kentucky had lost in Knoxville; four hours later, #1 Kansas had dropped its second game of the year in Stillwater; and by the same time on Sunday evening, #3 Purdue had joined the others with a loss. In an 0range-themed weekend with Tennessee and Oklahoma State doing damage, it is literally the Orange, as in #4 Syracuse, who stands to move to the top of the polls for just the second time during the regular season in its long and illustrious history (SU held the top spot for six weeks in 1989-90). And why not? The beatdown that Jim Boeheim’s team put on #8 Villanova on Saturday night was downright clinical in its division of labor and efficiency. Six of Boeheim’s seven “starters’ contributed double figure points; five of them grabbed seven or more rebounds; and, four offered three or more dimes for their efforts. If you focus on stopping Wesley Johnson, Arinze Onuaku (17/9/3 blks) burns you. If you take away Andy Rautins, Scoop Jardine (16/7 assts) picks him up. Rick Jackson? Kris Joseph (16/9/3 assts). Syracuse has an answer for every problem, and their zone, while perhaps not the best in college basketball history as Bob Knight said, is awfully good. The Orange have met every major challenge thrown at them this year, and when you take a look at their two losses (Pittsburgh and Louisville at home) you start to think that maybe they weren’t as mentally prepared for those games as they should have been, because in every one of their “big” games this year, they’ve been virtually flawless.
A Record On-Campus Crowd Saw SU Dominate Villanova (P-S/Lauren Long)
As For the Top Three… We’re not going to read too much into the losses that #1 Kansas and #2 Kentucky took on the road this weekend. Even great teams lose road games once in a while, and both Tennessee and Oklahoma State are good enough teams to do some damage in March (more discussion on both games in the conference recaps below). However, #3 Purdue isn’t getting off so easily. We already knew that Matt Painter’s team would continue to fight and claw in their inimitable style without the services of Robbie Hummel, but the Boilers got completely pushed around today (-28 rebounds) by the bigger, stronger Michigan State Spartans and their offense was a complete disaster without the versatile forward in the lineup (30% from the field; 22% from deep). How does the NCAA Selection Committee fairly evaluate this team? They’re likely to win their final two games against Indiana and Penn State, which would put them at 26-4 overall and 14-4 in the Big Ten with a 3-1 record sans Hummel. But Ohio State and Michigan State are likely to also finish at 14-4 in the Big Ten, which means that the winner of the Big Ten Tourney will have the inside track on a #1 seed, or at worst, a top #2 seed. But what if Purdue loses in the B10 quarters or semis? Are they a #2 seed or a #3 seed or lower? The resume is strong, but they’re just not the same team as they were with Hummel in the lineup. Honestly, we would wager that the Committee is secretly hoping that Purdue drops one or both of this week’s games to the bottom-feeders of the conference to make their decision to demote them more defensible.
***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game
#24 Richmond @ Xavier – 1 pm on ESPN2 (****)
Jordan Crawford and Xavier Look to Take the A10 Title
If there are still fans who don’t realize the importance of this game, they need to look no further than the recent comments by Xavier head coach Chris Mack on the message boards at Xavierhoops.com:
“Our team needs you loud. If you’re just going to come to the game to watch, give your tickets up. Heck, you can WATCH from home. I want our arena rocking!! Calling all PARTICIPANTS. This isn’t a marketing ploy. This is your head coach, sitting at his home computer asking for the best fans in the country to come alive for 40 game minutes on Sunday LIKE NEVER BEFORE.”
There is a good reason why Mack is so excited for this early game. With eight consecutive wins, Richmond has not only cracked the top 25, they have actually taken the lead in the A-10 standings. If the Spiders win their last three games against Xavier, Dayton, and Charlotte, their tournament stock could make a huge jump. The Musketeers have won four games in a row and are tied with the Spiders for the Atlantic Ten lead. Richmond comes in ranking only 90th in offensive efficiency, and they are going to have to hit their open shots, as they won’t get many second chance opportunities against the best rebounding team in the conference. Xavier has a dynamic offense that ranks 10th in efficiency and features future NBA pick Jordan Crawford. Xavier has won 22 consecutive games at home, and if they are able to hold Kevin Anderson in check, it looks like Richmond may lose its place atop the A-10.
Louisville @ Connecticut – 2 pm on CBS (****)
Both of these teams were in trouble of missing the tournament a few weeks ago when they met up. Louisville survived that game, but with losses against St. John’s and Georgetown since then, their at-large status is still in doubt. UConn, due to two improbable wins over Villanova and West Virginia, is playing their way back in the tournament. RTC said before UL’s last game that they were going to have to get production from somebody other than Samardo Samuels and Edgar Sosa. The Cardinals only had four points from their bench in that game, so Louisville is still going to need some more balance if they are going to beat a hot team like Connecticut. The Huskies’ offense features four double figure scorers, but rank just 61st in offensive efficiency, largely due to a poor assists to turnover ratio. Louisville’s defense ranks just 68th in the country, and they have allowed their last five opponents to shoot over 40% from the field, which will not cut it at the XL Center. The Cardinals started the year just 1-6 on the road, but have won their last two road trips (including a win over Syracuse) so perhaps they have figured out what was plaguing them earlier in the season. With Connecticut ranked 40th in the RPI and Louisville at #41, this game could be the difference in who is among the last four in and who is among the first four out. Given UConn’s recent upsets, look for them to continue their surprising run toward a potential NCAA berth.
As the season winds closer to a conclusion and Selection Sunday approaches, a bracket snapshot each Monday just doesn’t quite seem adequate. From now until the end of the year, we’ll be providing a Friday seed update that outlines where each team inside and just outside the field of 65 currently stands along with reasoning why certain teams changed seed number since the previous Monday.
(Note: each of the four teams in one seed grouping is listed in pecking order in terms of who is closer to moving up a seed line. This is used to determine game location and matchups similar to Joe Lunardi’s S-Curve listing. Auto bids marked in italics).
#1 Seeds: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Purdue
#2 Seeds:Duke, Kansas State, Villanova, West Virginia
#3 Seeds: Georgetown, New Mexico, Ohio State, Pittsburgh
#4 Seeds: Vanderbilt, BYU, Temple, Wisconsin
#5 Seeds: Michigan State, Gonzaga, Butler, Baylor
#6 Seeds: Texas, Xavier, Texas A&M, Tennessee
#7 Seeds: Wake Forest, Richmond, Maryland, Northern Iowa
Robbie Hummel aftermath. Obviously, Purdue losing Hummel to a season-ending ACL injury will get a lot of attention. Here’s what some of the big names are writing about it – Gary Parrish, Jeff Goodman, Mike DeCourcy, Andy Glockner. Everyone agrees that this is a situation that Purdue will not be able to overcome. One thing’s for sure, though — America may have found its team to root for in the postseason this year.
You gotta give it up for ESPN’s Jeannine Edwards going on John Calipari’s show and getting into a friendly banter about last year’s odd situation with former UK coach Billy Gillispie, well-chronicled on this very site.
Expect this to enable a lot of snarky dialogue today in the blogosphere: FIU head coach Isiah Thomas was ejected from his team’s game against Middle Tennessee State last night (a loss, 74-71). Thomas ran onto the court to protest a call and was thrown out for his behavior. FIU is now 7-23 on the season and 4-13 in the Sun Belt Conference, in case you were wondering (and we know you were).
Missouri’s Justin Safford joined Robbie Hummel with torn ACL injuries this week, but oddly, MU officials are leaving open the possibility of Safford returning to the team this season. The junior starting forward tore the ligament in the Tigers’ blowout win over Colorado on Wednesday night, and he was averaging 9/4 in twenty minutes per game this year.
Syracuse is expecting to set a new on-campus record for attendance at the Carrier Dome on Saturday night for their battle with Villanova. 34,616 tickets have been sold, nearly a thousand more than the previous record crowd in 2006 for Gerry McNamara’s last home game.
Whether or not you’ve had a knee injury of any kind in the past, there aren’t many things that make people cringe more readily than watching a game on TV and seeing that slow-motion replay of a gruesome injury, especially when it involves an athlete’s knee(s). The only thing stranger than seeing that joint go out of place and do that strange contortion for a split-second (I shudder every time) is watching it from multiple angles in super-slo-mo in high definition while an announcer narrates it — “Oh yeah, THERE it is!”
We saw this during Robbie Hummel’s injury last night. When he drove into the lane and planted that right leg — you saw it. Something happened, and it was unnatural. Then the slow-motion replays gave you a better look at it. It’s the usual story — a player plants their (usually in-turned) leg, but the top part of the knee keeps moving while the bottom stays still. Pop. The first thing people think when a player goes down and grabs a knee is “Uh oh, ACL.” They’re often right, and unfortunately, though the MRI is pending, that looks like the case for Hummel.
You may ask how can they make that diagnosis without the MRI pictures. Good question. Doctors know that the physical exam is more important than any pictures you get. The next time you’re watching television and a player (in any sport) goes down with a knee injury, watch what the doctor or trainer does. There’s one specific thing that they almost always do first in evaluating the knee right there on the floor or field, or when they get the player back to the bench — there’s a test that checks the ACL (anterior cruciate ligament) almost immediately.
It’s called the “Anterior Drawer” test. Here’s what you’ll see. The doctor/trainer will lay the player on their back and bend the knee they’re checking to about a 90 degree angle. They’ll grab the leg at the calf with both hands, with their thumbs up to stabilize against the knee. Then they’ll pull forward on the bottom part of the leg as if they were opening a drawer. At this point, the player will usually yell loudly. This alone doesn’t tell you anything, since if I’d just hurt my knee and some putz started messing with it, the foot on my good leg would immediately rise up and head for the doctor/trainer’s face or testicles. What they’re feeling for is how much that bottom part of the leg slides forward at the knee when they do the drawer-opening motion. If it’s a lot, your suspicion for an ACL tear goes way up. If it’s not much or it feels normal, an ACL tear is still on the list, but not as likely. But quite often, you can literally see the result there on television. You can see the bottom part of the knee slide unnaturally forward (anteriorly) when the ACL is torn. MRIs are best for looking at ligaments (you can’t see them on a normal x-ray), and that almost always gets done, but this is how doctors make a “preliminary” diagnosis even without the pictures. There are other tests besides the Anterior Drawer to check the ACL, but that’s the one doctors and trainers most often use first, and the one you see them use most often right there on TV.
By the way, there’s also a Posterior Drawer test that checks the PCL (posterior cruciate ligament) in the back of the knee, where you push backward instead of forward. Same principle applies. One last thing — don’t go doing these things on your friends. The next time you see a knee injury on TV, though, watch the doctor/trainer do their exam. Or more specifically, check out their Drawers.
Hummel’s Knee Buckles — Did Purdue’s Season?#3 Purdue 59, Minnesota 58. Thirteen minutes into this game, Purdue star forward Robbie Hummel drove to his right into the paint, stopped, and squared his shoulders to the rim. Simultaneously, his right leg slipped a little causing his knee to buckle and give out from underneath him. It wasn’t a gruesome injury, but it was certainly forboding. People say they hate to speculate about someone’s injury, but they proceed to do it anyway, so we’ll avoid those niceties here. It looked like and his reaction certainly belied what we believe was an ACL injury in his knee: The inability to initially put weight on the knee; the severe pain immediately after the fact, yet the ability to stay on the bench for the remainder of the game; the crutches; the need for an MRI as soon as possible. We really hope we’re wrong about this, but as someone who has had a couple of these tears ourselves, we sorta think we know it when we see it. If Hummel is out for the rest of the season (and Gary Parrish reports that there’s not much optimism to the contrary coming out of the Boilermaker camp), then despite the heart and grit and skill we saw on display tonight at Minnesota, a phenomenal season will without question reach a premature conclusion. There is absolutely no way that Purdue can go to the Final Four without Hummel in the lineup. It’s not as if he’s a dominant player in the mold of Kenyon Martin (broken leg in 2000) or Derek Anderson (torn ACL in 1997), but he’s an extremely important piece of what Purdue does, and there simply isn’t enough time (or elite talent) to re-craft a plan for life post-Hummel. As a microcosm of this unfortunate truth, look at what happened tonight. Purdue was leading 26-14 when Hummel got hurt. After his injury the Boilermakers scored two more FGs in the next twelve minutes of action. Obviously, Matt Painter will have time to adjust his game plan in coming days and the recent emergence of Keaton Grant (10/5/4 assts) doesn’t hurt, but Hummel is such a multifaceted piece of the Purdue attack that someone like him cannot just be plugged in overnight. The aforementioned Grant was huge down the stretch tonight, and we expect that more will be asked from the talented duo of E’Twaun Moore (11/3) and JaJuan Johnson (14/10), but it’s going to take some really good luck in the form of tomorrow’s diagnosis for Purdue to have a chance to fulfill its lofty goals this season.
Let's All Hope For the Word "Sprain" for Hummel (AP/J. Wheeler)
No Harangody, No Problem. Notre Dame 68, #16 Pittsburgh 53. The Irish came off the schneid in a big way tonight even with its star Luke Harangody still sitting on the bench with a knee bruise injury. The high-scoring offense slowed down its attack, finding that running down the shot clock resulted in better looks from three, of which the Irish nailed 10-18 this evening. Pitt, on the other hand, was never able to find the mark from deep, going 4-18 from three and even getting killed on the boards (-10), unusual for a Jamie Dixon-coached team. Perhaps the Panthers were a little worn out from playing and beating WVU, Marquette and Villanova in their last three games, but it was to ND’s benefit as the Irish took control early and never relented. Mike Brey’s team still has significant work to do before we start talking about NCAA again, but this was a big step in the right direction.
RTC contributor and bracketologist Zach Hayes will deliver permeating thoughts every week as the season progresses.
This week’s Scribbles column will take on a new twist- which eight teams I’d select to reach the four regional final games in late March. Now, I realize individual matchups within the bracket will determine the fate of these teams, but these are the eight clubs I feel like have an excellent chance of winning three games to reach the Elite 8 regardless of the teams that stand in their way. Some of these teams are the favorites, those expected to reach this level or their season will be labeled a colossal disappointment. The others are mild sleepers that certainly have the capabilities to make a serious run. Without further ado:
1. Kansas- One screaming commentator keeps telling me there’s not one clear favorite heading into March Madness this season. There’s no one team that stands above the rest akin to last year’s North Carolina entering the field as the favorite to hoist the championship trophy on that Monday night in April. This claim continues to baffle me for two reasons: 1) North Carolina was NOT the clear favorite to win the national championship last season. They entered the NCAA Tournament coming off a semifinal loss in the ACC Tournament to Florida State and were chosen as the #3 overall seed in the Dance behind Louisville and Pittsburgh. They were also dealing with question marks around Ty Lawson’s playing status. For a sample, I checked back to the NCAA Tournament pool I conducted last season and North Carolina was picked to win it all less than both Pitt (the most frequent) and Louisville. Even though the Heels featured the most pure talent, let’s put an end to this false claim. I also vehemently disagree that one team doesn’t stand alone this season ahead of the pack. To me, Kansas is the clear cut #1 favorite to win their second title in three years. Bill Self has the second most efficient offense and the third most efficient defense. He’s slowly but surely cut down his rotation and found a perfect balance. Most great teams start with a dominant point guard and center and Self has both of those covered. Even the enigma known as Tyshawn Taylor received a jolt from a surprising start by Self last Saturday and responded. I haven’t even mentioned the scorching hot Xavier Henry. The Jayhawks are an obvious Elite 8 team.
Taylor and Self finally on the same page?
2. Kentucky- If any team can hold a candle to Kansas at this stage of the season, it’s Kentucky. The Wildcats have matched Kansas’ road triumphs in the Big 12 with impressive wins away from Lexington against Florida, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. John Calipari has blended complicated personalities to perfection and found the ideal concoction to finally win a national title. I mentioned Kansas has a tremendous starting point with Collins and Aldrich; they’re actually topped by the inside-outside duo of John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins. Wall has emerged from a mid-season turnover slump to play more like the December John Wall the entire college basketball world fell in love with. He’s absolutely deadly in transition and continues to make clutch plays down the stretch. Cousins will be the single most difficult player to guard in the entire NCAA Tournament, evident by his top-five rank in fouls drawn per 40 minutes. He has guard skills in a 6’11 body and is the most effective rebounder in the nation. The real question is if Kentucky can play a halfcourt game against the likes of Purdue and West Virginia should they run into either team. The Wildcats are much more ordinary than spectacular when they play a game in the 60s and are forced to settle for outside jump shots. Still, this team has the goods and the talent to reach a regional final.
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2010 Tourney Preview, bracket prep | Tagged: alex franklin, ashton gibbs, blake hoffarber, brad wannamaker, brian green, chris kramer, clarence jackson, clemson, cornell, dasean butler, dash harris, derick nelson, derrick roland, donald sloan, e'twaun moore, fran dunphy, gary mcghee, gilbert brown, jajuan johnson, jared quayle, jason bohannon, jason love, jeff foote, jermaine dixon, jon leuer, jonathan jones, jordan crawford, jordan taylor, juan fernandez, keith benson, kevin jones, kevin thompson, kim english, lavoy allen, lawrence westbrook, lewis jackson, louis dale, marcus denmon, mark turgeon, matt painter, minnesota, missouri, morgan st, nate bendall, ncaa tournament, oakland, oliver purnell, pittsburgh, purdue, reggie holmes, robbie hummel, ryan brooks, ryan rossiter, ryan wittman, siena, steve donahue, stew morrill, tai wesley, temple, terrell holloway, todd bozeman, trevon hughes, trevor booker, wellington smith, west virginia, wisconsin, wofford, xavier | 
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