Big Ten Bracketology Breakdown: January 22 Edition

Posted by Eric Clark on January 23rd, 2015

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi released his latest Bracketology update on Thursday, tabbing six Big Ten teams in his projected field of 68. Lunardi had projected the Big Ten to snag eight spots back in November – but it’s no secret that the conference has underperformed against fairly lofty preseason expectations. Lunardi is usually spot-on with his predictions, nailing 67 of the 68 teams last season and correctly naming all 68 in 2013. Let’s take a deeper look at each of his relevant projections.

Wisconsin – No. 2 (East)

The Badgers have been pegged as a No. 2 seed for Lunardi’s last three editions of Bracketology, but they occupied the No. 1 seed in the East as late as January 5. That drop can be 100 percent attributed to the Badgers’ ugly loss to Rutgers, even without star Frank Kaminsky. While Kaminsky is now back in the lineup, point guard Traevon Jackson will be out for much of the remainder of the regular season. But in their first two games without him, Bronson Koenig has admirably filled in and alleviated some of Wisconsin’s worries at the point guard position with solid performances in easy wins over Nebraska and Iowa. The Badgers will face only four more teams ranked in KenPom’s top 50 in their last 12 games, so it appears that they’re essentially a lock for a No. 2 seed or better.

The Badgers struggled in their one game without Frank Kaminsky, but they've been dominant so far in the Big Ten. (Getty)

The Badgers struggled in their one game without Frank Kaminsky, but they’ve been dominant so far in the Big Ten. (Getty)

Maryland – No. 2 (South)

The Terrapins have been excellent in their first year in the Big Ten despite a blowout loss at Indiana on Thursday night. Lunardi had Maryland pegged as the No. 3 seed in the Midwest just over a week ago, but a dominant win over Michigan State in College Park earned them a bump up the ladder. While Lunardi didn’t tab the Terps as an NCAA Tournament team back in November, multiple players have stepped up for Mark Turgeon’s squad – Dez Wells has established himself as one of the conference’s premier defenders; freshman Melo Trimble has exceeded all expectations; and Jake Layman has cut back on his three-point attempts and instead established a solid inside and mid-range game. The Terps’ Big Ten championship dreams took a substantial hit in last night’s road loss, but they’re still a good pick for a top-three seed in any regional.

Indiana – No. 8 (Midwest)

The Hoosiers first entered Lunardi’s projections back on January 15 as a No. 9 seed following home victories over Ohio State and Penn State. Since then, they have won a tough away game at Illinois and thoroughly dominated Maryland last night at home. They’re bound to move up in Lunardi’s bracket if they can complete the season sweep of Ohio State on Sunday in a game that KenPom gives them a 22 percent chance to win. The Hoosiers have clearly recovered from a heavily publicized and troubling offseason as well as an early-season loss to Eastern Washington. Freshman James Blackmon has been fantastic and they’re now thriving under Yogi Ferrell’s leadership.

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SEC M5: 01.16.15 Edition

Posted by David Changas on January 16th, 2015

SEC_morning5

  1. Auburn’s Cinmeon Bowers was one of the most sought-after junior college players in the country last year and he has proved to be quite a find for Bruce Pearl. He is currently the team’s third-leading scorer (13.7 PPG) and the league’s leading rebounder (11.3 RPG) despite standing only 6’7″. But given what Bowers went through while in high school in Milwaukee, it’s no surprise that the 278-pound forward is one of the league’s toughest players. As chronicled by Charles Goldberg of AuburnTigers.com, Bowers was shot five times during a car robbery attempt four year ago. Given that experience, the often free-spirited Bowers can handle any criticism leveled by Pearl, who is impressed with how the junior has shaken a rocky start to notch nine double-doubles and become one of the Tigers’ most productive players. Given where Auburn is in its program development arc, Pearl has to be thankful Bowers decided to follow him to the school.
  2. Per NCAA rules, teams are allowed to take overseas trips in the offseason every four years, and Kentucky took advantage of its opportunity to do so last summer. The Wildcats traveled to the Bahamas and the timing could not have been more perfect. The trip south gave John Calipari the opportunity to work his talented freshmen with a returning group that played for the national championship a few months earlier. Given the Wildcats’ currently undefeated and mostly-dominant start, the trip appears to have been a resounding success. But that success came at quite a cost. As Adam Himmelsbach of The Courier-Journal points out, the astounding $792,845.68 price tag was nearly $640,000 more than North Carolina spent on its own trip to the Bahamas last summer, and it was 21 times more costly than a similar trip taken by Portland State. Much of that cost related to bringing along teams that could challenge the Wildcats, but while the large figure may cause some unease for Kentucky fans, it’s likely that most of Big Blue Nation will see it as money well spent if the Wildcats win another national championship.
  3. Speaking of large sums of money, it was revealed earlier this week that retiring SEC commissioner Mike Slive, who is currently fighting prostate cancer and will leave his post at the end of July, earned $2.1 million in compensation for the 2013-14 school year, a 69% increase from the prior year. Slive, who is not the highest-paid conference commissioner (he trails the Pac-12’s Larry Scott and the ACC’s John Swofford), clearly has done great things for the league in his tenure, not the least of which is the enormous CBS contract and the establishment of the SEC Network, which launched last August. The vast majority of that success has to do with the conference’s unprecedented dominance in football, but as we have indicated here in the past, if there is one hole in Slive’s legacy, it’s that the conference’s collective performance on the hardwood has been mostly lackluster.
  4. While the overall performance of the SEC has been subpar in basketball during much of Slive’s tenure, there clearly are two programs that have consistently performed at a very high level: Kentucky and FloridaCBSSports.com‘s Matt Norlander set out to find which programs have performed the best when football and basketball are combined, and although newly-crowned national champion Ohio State appeared to be the obvious choice, Norlander found that Florida has actually performed the best. He reviewed eight categories in both sports and found that only the Gators qualified in all of them. Given three football national championships and Billy Donovan’s two basketball titles and four Final Four appearances, it should be no surprise that Florida has had more success than any other program in both major sports over the past two decades.
  5. When Jerry Palm of CBSSports.com issued his latest bracketology column earlier this week, it wasn’t all that surprising that he had five SEC schools included even though most are currently projecting four in the field. What was really surprising, though, was that he chose Tennessee as one of the five teams. Palm listed the Volunteers as a #9 seed, despite an RPI (#53) that ranks outside the top 50. What is even more surprising is that he released his field prior to Tennessee’s upset win over Arkansas Tuesday night. Of course, such things mean very little only three games into the conference season, and Donnie Tyndall all but said to ignore any such projections. Still, the fact that Tyndall could have a team with as many newcomers and limitations as this one in the conversation for an NCAA Tournament bid is a testament to the job he has done in his first half-season in Knoxville. For Volunteers fans anxiously awaiting the results of the inquiry into Tyndall’s actions while he coached at Southern Miss, they just hope he’s around for a while to build on what he has done.
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Should SMU Have Been Left Out of the Dance?

Posted by CD Bradley on March 18th, 2014

One of the biggest stories of Selection Sunday was SMU missing the field. The Mustangs, which hadn’t made the Tournament in two long decades, were widely considered a lock for the field in the closing weeks of the regular season, particularly since winning at UConn on February 23. And yet they’ll be hosting an NIT game versus UC Irvine on Wednesday night. Did Larry Browns’ team deserve its unkind bracket fate?

As one could imagine, Larry Brown (center) and his SMU squad didn't have the best Sunday afternoon. (Vernon Bryant/The Dallas Morning News)

As one could imagine, Larry Brown (center) and his SMU squad didn’t have the best Sunday afternoon. (Vernon Bryant/The Dallas Morning News)

Selection committee Chairman Ron Wellman said that SMU was the last team out of the tournament. “As we looked at SMU, they certainly passed the eye test,” he told a conference call of reporters on Sunday night. “They’re a very good team, had a very good year.” Wellman continued:

When you’re making these selections, you’re looking for differentiators. Is there anything that stands out, on the positive side or negative side of the ledger, that will cause you to absolutely take that team or really look at prioritizing and selecting other teams? In SMU’s case their downfall, their weakness, was their schedule. Their non-conference strength of schedule was ranked number 302 out of 350 teams eligible for the tournament. It’s one of the worst non-conference strengths of schedule. Their overall strength of schedule was ranked 129. One-twenty-nine would have been by far the worst at large strength of schedule going into the tournament. The next worst at large strength of schedule was 91. Really the glaring weakness about SMU was their schedule.

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RTC Bracketology: Selection Sunday Final Edition

Posted by Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) on March 16th, 2014

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is Rush the Court’s resident bracketologist. He will update his brackets at least twice a week through the rest of the regular season here at RTC, but his updated brackets can be viewed daily at Bracketology Expert. As we approach March Madness, he’ll also provide occasional blind resumes. Evans has been ranked by the Bracket Matrix as the nation’s 11th-best bracketologist out of hundreds of entries.

I promised myself last year that I would learn from picking Tennessee over Middle Tennessee for the final spot in the bracket. The committee always throws in a surprise mid-major at the end. It’s been UAB, Iona, and Middle Tennessee since the field expanded to 68 teams. This year it’s going to be Green Bay. I’d rather go down learning from history than to be wrong again. SMU, a team many people have as a “lock” is the team I’ve removed from the field.

First Four Out: Florida State, SMU, Southern Miss, N. C. State

SS_bracketFINAl2

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RTC Bracketology: Selection Sunday AM Edition

Posted by Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) on March 16th, 2014

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is Rush the Court’s resident bracketologist. He will update his brackets at least twice a week through the rest of the regular season here at RTC, but his updated brackets can be viewed daily at Bracketology Expert. As we approach March Madness, he’ll also provide occasional blind resumes. Evans has been ranked by the Bracket Matrix as the nation’s 11th-best bracketologist out of hundreds of entries.

It’s Selection Sunday! My final bracket will be posted at some point this afternoon, so stay tuned. It should look a lot like the one below, but I expect to make a few tweaks to the bottom of the bracket as I debate the final few bubble teams.

The NCAA Tournament Picture (full bracket after the jump)

  • NCAA Tournament Locks (38): Arizona, Florida, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Kansas, Duke, Villanova, Virginia, Creighton, Michigan, San Diego State, Iowa State, Michigan State, Louisville, North Carolina, Saint Louis, Cincinnati, UCLA, Texas, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Kansas State, VCU, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Iowa, Ohio State, George Washington, Memphis, Arizona State, New Mexico, Oregon, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Stanford, Pittsburgh, Saint Joseph’s
  • Clinched NCAA Tournament Auto-Bids (27): Harvard (Ivy), Eastern Kentucky (OVC), Wichita State (MVC), Mercer (ASun), Coastal Carolina (Big South), Manhattan (MAAC), Wofford (SOCON), Milwaukee (Horizon), Mount St. Mary’s (NEC), North Dakota State (Summit), Gonzaga (WCC), Delaware (CAA), American (Patriot), Albany (America East), Tulsa (Conference USA), Louisville (American), Weber State (Big Sky), Providence (Big East), Cal Poly (Big West), Western Michigan (MAC), NC Central (MEAC), New Mexico (Mountain West), UCLA (Pac-12), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Texas Southern (SWAC), New Mexico State (WAC)

Since 68 teams make the NCAA Tournament, that leaves us with 7 spots remaining for bubble teams. Now, let’s take a look at the bubble:

Projected Bubble Spots Left: 6

  • Probably In (3): Nebraska, Dayton, Xavier
  • Bubble In (3):  SMU, Tennessee, BYU
  • Bubble Out: Green Bay, Florida State, Southern Miss, N. C. State, Minnesota, Arkansas, California, Belmont, Missouri, Toledo, Louisiana Tech, Georgia, St. John’s

The Projected NCAA Tournament Field (Selection Sunday at 2:59 A.M. CT)

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RTC Bracketology: March 15 (2:00 PM ET) Edition

Posted by Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) on March 15th, 2014

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is Rush the Court’s resident bracketologist. He will update his brackets at least twice a week through the rest of the regular season here at RTC, but his updated brackets can be viewed daily at Bracketology Expert. As we approach March Madness, he’ll also provide occasional blind resumes. Evans has been ranked by the Bracket Matrix as the nation’s 11th-best bracketologist out of hundreds of entries.

Here’s what has changed on Friday and earlier today:

  •  Albany (America East) and Tulsa (Conference USA) have clinched bids by winning their conference tournaments.

The NCAA Tournament Picture (full S-curve after the jump)

  • NCAA Tournament Locks (38): Arizona, Florida, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Kansas, Duke, Villanova, Virginia, Creighton, Michigan, San Diego State, Iowa State, Michigan State, Louisville, North Carolina, Saint Louis, Cincinnati, UCLA, Texas, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Kansas State, Vcu, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Iowa, Ohio State, George Washington, Memphis, Arizona State, New Mexico, Oregon, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Stanford, Pittsburgh, Saint Joseph’s
  • Clinched NCAA Tournament Auto-Bids (15): Harvard (Ivy), Eastern Kentucky (OVC), Wichita State (MVC), Mercer (ASUN), Coastal Carolina (Big South), Manhattan (MAAC), Wofford (SOCON), Milwaukee (Horizon), Mount St. Mary’s (NEC), North Dakota State (Summit), Gonzaga (WCC), Delaware (CAA), American (Patriot), Albany (America East), Tulsa (Conference USA)

Bracket Math

I have 38 locks above, but when you consider nine conferences figure to have at least three bids or more (American, ACC, A10, Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, Mountain West, Pac 12, SEC) it’s fair to assume that in MOST — if not all — of those leagues, the automatic bid will also come from an already “locked in” team. Therefore, we subtract nine from 38, which leaves us with 29 “true locks”. Add in the 32 automatic bids awarded to teams that win their conference tournament (which is where the nine conference champs we discounted a second ago will end up) and you’ve got a total of 61 locks. 

Since 68 teams make the NCAA Tournament, that leaves us with 7 spots remaining for bubble teams. Now, let’s take a look at the bubble:

Projected Bubble Spots Left: 7

  • Probably In (4): Nebraska, Dayton, Xavier, SMU
  • Bubble In (3):  Tennessee, BYU, Providence
  • Bubble Out: Minnesota, Arkansas, California, Green Bay, Florida State, Southern Miss, N. C. State, St. John’s, Belmont, Missouri, Georgia, Louisiana Tech

Potential Bid Thieves Left: 3

  • ACC (1): N. C. State
  • A-10 (1):  St. Bonaventure
  • SEC (1): Georgia

The Projected NCAA Tournament Field

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RTC Bracketology: March 14 Edition

Posted by Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) on March 14th, 2014

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is Rush the Court’s resident bracketologist. He will update his brackets at least twice a week through the rest of the regular season here at RTC, but his updated brackets can be viewed daily at Bracketology Expert. As we approach March Madness, he’ll also provide occasional blind resumes. Evans has been ranked by the Bracket Matrix as the nation’s 11th-best bracketologist out of hundreds of entries.

Here’s what changed on Thursday:

  • After big wins Thursday, I have moved both Colorado and Stanford into lock status.  That brings us to 37 total locks, meaning we are running out of spots for bubble teams in a hurry.
  • Iowa better be glad it doesn’t have another game to play. Another bad loss to a team like Northwestern and I think the Hawkeyes might have been sitting out this dance. Instead, Iowa is likely to be a #10 or #11 seed on Selection Sunday.
  • Wisconsin is back on the No. 1 line after Villanova’s loss Thursday. The Badgers will likely only stay there if they win the Big Ten Tournament, though.

The NCAA Tournament Picture (full bracket after the jump)

  • NCAA Tournament Locks (37): Arizona, Florida, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Kansas, Duke, Villanova, Virginia, Creighton, Michigan, San Diego State, Iowa State, Michigan State, Louisville, North Carolina, Saint Louis, Cincinnati, UCLA, Texas, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Kansas State, Vcu, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Iowa, Ohio State, George Washington, Memphis, Arizona State, New Mexico, Oregon, Baylor, SMU, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Stanford
  • Clinched NCAA Tournament Auto-Bids (13): Harvard (Ivy), Eastern Kentucky (OVC), Wichita State (MVC), Mercer (ASUN), Coastal Carolina (Big South), Manhattan (MAAC), Wofford (SOCON), Milwaukee (Horizon), Mount St. Mary’s (NEC), North Dakota State (Summit), Gonzaga (WCC), Delaware (CAA), American (Patriot)

Bracket Math

How many spots are still available for bubble teams hoping to win their way into the NCAA Tournament? Let’s break it down with a little bit of simple math.

I have 37 locks above, but when you consider nine conferences figure to have at least three bids or more (American, ACC, A-10, Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, Mountain West, Pac-12, SEC) it’s fair to assume that in MOST — if not all — of those leagues, the automatic bid will also come from an already “locked in” team. Therefore, we subtract nine from 37, which leaves us with 28 “true locks”. Add in the 32 automatic bids awarded to teams that win their conference tournament (which is where the nine conference champs we discounted a second ago will end up) and you’ve got a total of 60 locks. 

Since 68 teams make the NCAA Tournament, that leaves us with 8 spots remaining for bubble teams. Now, let’s take a look at the bubble:

Projected Bubble Spots Left: 8

  • Probably In (3): Nebraska, Saint Joseph’s, Dayton
  • Bubble In (5):  Xavier, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Tennessee, BYU
  • Bubble Out: Arkansas,  Providence, California, Green Bay, Florida State, St. John’s, Belmont, Missouri

Potential Bid Thieves Left: 20

  • American (1): Houston
  • ACC (3): N. C. State, Florida State, Georgia Tech
  • A-10 (4): Dayton, St. Joseph’s, Richmond, St. Bonaventure
  • Big East (3): Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence
  • Big Ten (3): Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern
  • Mountain West (2): UNLV, Boise State
  • SEC (6): Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri, LSU, Ole Miss,  South Carolina

The Projected NCAA Tournament Field (March 14, 2014 at 10:39 AM CT)

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RTC Bracketology: March 13 Edition

Posted by Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) on March 13th, 2014

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is Rush the Court’s resident bracketologist. He will update his brackets at least twice a week through the rest of the regular season here at RTC, but his updated brackets can be viewed daily at Bracketology Expert. As we approach March Madness, he’ll also provide occasional blind resumes. Evans has been ranked by the Bracket Matrix as the nation’s 11th-best bracketologist out of hundreds of entries.

Thursday is typically the busiest day of championship week because we get to find out which “bid thieves” are going to possibly throw a wrench into the hopes of the nation’s nervous bubble teams. Not a lot has changed so far this week, but here’s what has.

  • Georgetown is done after losing to DePaul on Thursday night. The Hoyas inexplicably blew a chance to play Creighton and what was likely a way to win their way into the Tournament. Now, Georgetown is NIT-bound.
  • Stanford saved its season by coming from behind to defeat Washington State in the last game of the day Wednesday night. The Cardinal are likely going to get in and will have a chance to cement their standing today against Arizona State.
  • BYU‘s situation has changed a lot in the last few days. First, the Cougars lost to Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament; then, news broke that Kyle Collinsworth is out for the season with an ACL injury. Yes, this will impact the Cougars’ chances of getting into the NCAA Tournament and, yes, it is a unique situation. Unlike Kansas, which will get a chance to show it is still a Tournament-worthy team without big man Joel Embiid, the Cougars won’t have that opportunity. Because of the timing of the injury, the committee won’t be able to see how good BYU is without Collinsworth and instead will have to completely ignore it when they make their selection this weekend. Or at least that is what (from my understanding) they are supposed to do. We are all human, so I wonder if the committee will be able to ignore Collinsworth’s injury in their analysis. Considering he averages 14.0 PPG and 8.1 RPG this season, that’s a substantial piece of their offensive attack. I’m guessing the Cougars are going to be out.
  • The CIT field is starting to come together. A total of 16 teams have now accepted bids (see below the bracket for more details).
  • There are no changes to the bracket below, at least not yet. Today there will be some movement.

The NCAA Tournament Picture (full bracket below after the jump)

  • NCAA Tournament Locks (35): Arizona, Florida, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Kansas, Duke, Villanova, Virginia, Creighton, Michigan, San Diego State, Iowa State, Michigan State, Louisville, North Carolina, Saint Louis, Cincinnati, UCLA, Texas, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Kansas State, VCU, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Iowa, Ohio State, George Washington, Memphis, Arizona State, New Mexico, Oregon, Baylor, SMU, Oklahoma State
  • Clinched NCAA Tournament Auto-Bids (13): Harvard (Ivy), Eastern Kentucky (OVC), Wichita State (MVC), Mercer (ASUN), Coastal Carolina (Big South), Manhattan (MAAC), Wofford (SOCON), Milwaukee (Horizon), Mount St. Mary’s (NEC), North Dakota State (Summit), Gonzaga (WCC), Delaware (CAA), American (Patriot)

Bracket Math

How many spots are still available for bubble teams hoping to win their way into the NCAA Tournament? Let’s break it down with a little bit of simple math.

I have 35 locks above, but when you consider nine conferences figure to have at least three bids or more (American, ACC, A-10, Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, Mountain West, Pac 12, SEC) it’s fair to assume that in MOST — if not all — of those leagues, the automatic bid will also come from an already “locked in” team. Therefore, we subtract nine from 35, which leaves us with 26 “true locks”. Add in the 32 automatic bids awarded to teams that win their conference tournament (which is where the nine conference champs we discounted a second ago will end up) and you’ve got a total of 58 locks. 

Since 68 teams make the NCAA Tournament, that leaves us with 10 spots remaining for bubble teams. Now, let’s take a look at the bubble:

Projected Bubble Spots Left: 10

  • Bubble In (10): Colorado, Stanford, Nebraska, Saint Joseph’s, Dayton, Xavier, California, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Tennessee
  • Bubble Out: BYU, Arkansas,  Providence, Green Bay, Florida State, St. John’s, Belmont, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia

Potential Bid Thieves Left: 44

  • American (3): Houston, Rutgers, UCF
  • ACC (5): Clemson, N. C. State, Florida State, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech
  • A-10 (7): Dayton, St. Joseph’s, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, Rhode Island, Duquesne,  Fordham
  • Big East (6): St. John’s, Xavier, Marquette, Seton Hall, DePaul, Providence
  • Big 12 (1): West Virginia
  • Big Ten (5): Minnesota, Illinois, Penn State, Northwestern, Purdue
  • Mountain West (6): UNLV, Nevada, Boise State, Wyoming, Fresno State, Utah State
  • Pac 12 (1): Utah
  • SEC (10): Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, LSU, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Alabama, South Carolina, Mississippi State

The Projected NCAA Tournament Field (March 13, 2014 at 10:16 AM CT)

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AAC Bracket Watch: 03.12.14 Edition

Posted by CD Bradley on March 12th, 2014

Last week we declared that all five of the AAC contenders were locks to make the NCAA tournament. We still believe that to be the case, but there have been whispers that maybe, just maybe, SMU’s spot isn’t completely safe. The Mustangs have been one of college basketball’s best stories, but it would surely ruin the ending if their name isn’t called on Sunday.

Could Larry Brown's Mustangs really find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble? (AP Photo/N. Raymond)

Could Larry Brown’s Mustangs really find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble? (AP Photo/N. Raymond)

Otherwise, barring a massive upset (Ken Pomeroy projects the bottom five AAC teams have, collectively, less than a 1% chance of winning the AAC title), the only drama this weekend in Memphis as it relates to the tournament is seeding. Can Louisville, which swooped into the #1 overall seed in both 2009 and 2013 after everybody in front of them lost, grab the last #1 seed with similar carnage this year? Could Cincinnati? Does Connecticut have a chance to earn a protected top 4 seed? Let’s peruse these resumes one last time.

Cincinnati: 26-5 (15-3), 7-5 vs. RPI top 50, RPI #15, KenPom #18, Bracket Matrix #4 (3.86). The Bearcats won a coin flip for the top seed in the first American tournament after they equaled the Cardinals in every single tiebreaker. Their prize is a possible semifinal matchup with hometown Memphis. Adding another road win against a top 50 team plus a neutral court finals victory over, say, Louisville would put them squarely in the mix for a 2 seed.

Louisville: 26-5 (15-3), 6-5 vs. RPI top 50, RPI #23, KenPom #2, BracketMatrix #4 (3.89). They trial Cincinnati in the bracket projections by little more than the coin-toss margin that dropped them to a #2 seed in the conference tournament. Could they (or Cincinnati) really get a #1 seed? It’s hard to imagine. It would probably require a non-top 4 ACC team winning that league, Wisconsin losing in the Big Ten, Villanova losing in the Big East, and San Diego State losing in the Mountain West. As noted above, similar wackiness got them there in 2009 and 2013, but it’s a big ask. Rick Pitino said if they win the AAC, they’ll get a #2 seed, and that seems like the right answer.

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RTC Bracketology: March 12 Edition

Posted by Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) on March 12th, 2014

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is Rush the Court’s resident bracketologist. He will update his brackets at least twice a week through the rest of the regular season here at RTC, but his updated brackets can be viewed daily at Bracketology Expert. As we approach March Madness, he’ll also provide occasional blind resumes. Evans has been ranked by the Bracket Matrix as the nation’s 11th-best bracketologist out of hundreds of entries.

Monday and Tuesday were the last two “quiet” days of the season. Sure, several automatic bids were handed out to the NCAA Tournament, but all in all not a lot changed in my NCAA Tournament bracketology. BYU’s loss to Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament Final is the biggest result on the board in the last two days and the Cougars were already the first team out of my field. For now, I’m leaving things that way with the right to change my mind before Selection Sunday.

The NCAA Tournament Picture (full bracket after the jump)

  • NCAA Tournament Locks (35): Arizona, Florida, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Kansas, Duke, Villanova, Virginia, Creighton, Michigan, San Diego State, Iowa State, Michigan State, Louisville, North Carolina, Saint Louis, Cincinnati, UCLA, Texas, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Kansas State, VCU, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Iowa, Ohio State, George Washington, Memphis, Arizona State, New Mexico, Oregon, Baylor, SMU, Oklahoma State
  • Clinched NCAA Tournament Auto-Bids (11): Harvard (Ivy), Eastern Kentucky (OVC), Wichita State (MVC), Mercer (ASUN), Coastal Carolina (Big South), Manhattan (MAAC), Wofford (SOCON), Milwaukee (Horizon), Mount St. Mary’s (NEC), North Dakota State (Summit), Gonzaga (WCC)

Bracket Math

  • How many spots are still available for bubble teams hoping to win their way into the NCAA Tournament? Let’s break it down with a little bit of simple math.
  • I have 35 locks above, but when you consider nine conferences figure to have at least three bids or more (American, ACC, A-10, Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, Mountain West, Pac-12, SEC) it’s fair to assume that in MOST, if not all, of those leagues, the automatic bid will also come from an already “locked-in” team. Therefore, we subtract nine from 35, which leaves us with 26 true locks.” Add in the 32 automatic bids awarded to teams that win their conference tournament (which is where the nine conference champs we discounted a second ago will end up) and you’ve got a total of 58 locks. 
  • Since 68 teams make the NCAA Tournament, that leaves us with 10 spots remaining for bubble teams. Now, let’s take a look at the bubble.

Projected Bubble Spots Left: 10

  • Bubble In (10): Colorado, Stanford, Nebraska, Saint Joseph’s, Dayton, Xavier, California, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Tennessee
  • Bubble Out: BYU, Arkansas, Georgetown, Providence, Green Bay, Florida State, St. John’s, Belmont, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia

Potential Bid Thieves Left: 67

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RTC Bracketology: March 10 Edition

Posted by Daniel Evans on March 10th, 2014

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is Rush the Court’s resident bracketologist. He will update his brackets at least twice a week through the rest of the regular season here at RTC, but his updated brackets can be viewed daily at Bracketology Expert. As we approach March Madness, he’ll also provide occasional blind resumes. Evans has been ranked by the Bracket Matrix as the nation’s 11th-best bracketologist out of hundreds of entries.

It’s the best week of the year as we all count down the hours to Selection Sunday. It may take every minute to figure out this field, which continues to produce loops with some of the stunning losses we’ve seen over the last few weeks. On Sunday alone, two potential No. 1 seeds lost  following a Saturday when Kansas and Arizona lost. One quick note for this bracket: Wisconsin’s loss to Nebraska on Sunday night moved the Badgers off of the No. 1 seed line. Villanova is now the final No. 1 seed and I believe firmly that if the bracket was released today, the Wildcats would join FloridaWichita State and Arizona on the top line. For the first time in over a month of bracketing, I feel like those four teams are relatively clear-cut choices on the top line, but over the next six days that is certain to change. The Gators and Shockers are locked in as No. 1s but Arizona and Villanova could still make things interesting in conference tournament play. Meanwhile, the Badgers loss was Nebraska’s gain. The Cornhuskers jumped up to a No. 10 seed in this bracket and will likely end up in the No. 10-12 range on Selection Sunday.

The NCAA Tournament Picture (full bracket below)

  • NCAA Tournament Locks (36): Arizona, Florida, Wichita State, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Kansas, Duke, Villanova, Virginia, Creighton, Michigan, San Diego State, Iowa State, Michigan State, Louisville, North Carolina, Saint Louis, Cincinnati, UCLA, Texas, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Kansas State, VCU, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Iowa, Ohio State, George Washington, Memphis, Arizona State, New Mexico, Oregon, Baylor, SMU, Oklahoma State
  • NCAA Tournament Auto-Bids (5): Harvard (Ivy), Eastern Kentucky (OVC), Wichita State (MVC), Mercer (A-Sun), Coastal Carolina (Big South)

The Bubble Picture

  • Projected Bubble Spots Left: 10
  • Bubble In (10): Colorado, Stanford, Nebraska, Saint Joseph’s, Dayton, Xavier, California, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Tennessee
  • Bubble Out: BYU, Arkansas, Georgetown, Providence, Green Bay, Florida State, St. John’s, Belmont, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia

Potential Bid Thieves Left (70)

  • American (5): Houston, Rutgers, UCF, Temple, South Florida
  • ACC (10): Clemson, N. C. State, Florida State, Maryland, Miami (FL), Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Boston College, Virginia Tech
  • A-10 (9): Dayton, St. Joseph’s, Richmond, La Salle, St. Bonaventure, Rhode Island, Duquesne, George Mason, Fordham
  • Big East (8): St. John’s, Xavier, Marquette, Georgetown, Seton Hall, Butler, DePaul, Providence
  • Big 12 (3): West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU
  • Big Ten (6): Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana, Penn State, Northwestern, Purdue
  • Mountain West (9): UNLV, Nevada, Boise State, Wyoming, Fresno State, Utah State, Colorado State, Air Force, San Jose State
  • Pac-12 (5): Utah, Washington, Oregon State, Washington State, USC
  • SEC (12): Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, LSU, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina, Mississippi State
  • WCC (3): BYU, San Francisco, St. Mary’s

The NIT Picture

  • There will be more to come on the NIT bracketology front as this week progresses, so stay tuned. I’ll likely also try to throw together CBI and CIT fields.
  • Clinched NIT Bids (5): Belmont (OVC), Florida Gulf Coast (A-Sun), Davidson (SoCon), Vermont (America East), Green Bay (Horizon)

The Projected NCAA Tournament Field (March 10, 2014 at 10:13 AM CT)

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RTC Bracketology: March 9 Edition

Posted by Daniel Evans on March 9th, 2014

Daniel Evans (@bracketexpert) is Rush the Court’s resident bracketologist. He will update his brackets at least twice a week through the rest of the regular season here at RTC, but his updated brackets can be viewed daily at Bracketology Expert. As we approach March Madness, he’ll also provide occasional blind resumes. Evans has been ranked by the Bracket Matrix as the nation’s 11th-best bracketologist out of hundreds of entries. 

Here are quick thoughts and notes following Saturday’s games:

Lock them up: Florida is now guaranteed a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, regardless of what happens in the SEC Tournament. The Gators pummeled Kentucky and then watched two other No. 1 seed contenders, Kansas and Arizona, lose. If the field was selected today, Florida would be the No. 1 overall seed and the only way that will change is if the Gators lose in the SEC Tournament. But, one thing is not going to change: The Gators will be on the top line. Wichita State is also locked into a No. 1 seed after reaching the Missouri Valley championship game.

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The Gators Will Be a #1 Seed Next Sunday

Teams in the running for a No. 1 seed: Kansas lost to West Virginia by six and Arizona lost at Oregon, creating chaos on the top line. I already had Wisconsin on the No. 1 line before Kansas’ loss and I expect other bracketology experts to move the Badgers up now, barring a loss at needy Nebraska Sunday night. Villanova and Syracuse are also in play for a top seed after Virginia’s defeat at Maryland today.

Green Bay very much alive: I always feel awful for at least one mid-major team that dominates its conference all season and then gets swept away in the conference tournament, losing to a team its already proven it’s better than. Well, this year’s team has already identified itself: Green Bay. The Phoenix lost to Milwaukee Saturday night and now will sweat out Selection Sunday. For those who think Green Bay’s chances of getting a bid are slim to none, think again. Remember the first year of the 68-team field when UAB was picked out of Conference USA despite losing in the first round of the CUSA Tournament to East Carolina? Or last season, when a Middle Tennessee team without a single top 100 win, made the field? The Pheonix have a top 100 win, and actually, they have four. They also have a TOP 10 RPI win over Virginia, a team the rest of the ACC has only defeated twice. I’m not saying Green Bay is getting a bid – not at this point, with so much still to be determined — but they will be one of the last teams in or out next Sunday. The committee has shown over and over again since the field expanded that it will use an average of two of last few spots for mid-majors. This is a weaker year for mid-majors than any other year since the field went to 68 teams, but that doesn’t mean the committee will act differently.

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