Rush The Court

This is the fourth of our four quick-and-dirty region breakdowns. This will serve to help the quick triggers who like to fill out their brackets first thing on Monday morning. For the rest of you, we’ll be providing more detailed game-by-game analysis throughout the rest of the week.

Edward Jones Dome Hosts the Midwest Regional

Region: Midwest

Favorite: Kansas, #1-seed, 32-2. The overall #1 seed.  The experts say there are no dominant teams this year, but for our money this year’s Jayhawks are just as dominant as North Carolina was in 2008-09.  Top-flight weapons at every position.  A solid bench.  Excellent coaching.  Youth.  Experience.  Any way you prefer to be beaten, they’ll beat you.  That switch they flipped to put Texas A&M away in the Big 12 Tournament was scary, but that’s the sort of command of which they’re capable.

Should They Falter: Ohio State, #2-seed, 27-7. We all know how special Evan Turner is.  But teams seem to make the mistake of thinking that this team has no other weapons.  David Lighty, Jon Diebler, and William Buford are all capable of big games.  They defer to Turner, yet Turner enjoys sharing the wealth.  As a team, they almost never take a bad shot, a trait that will serve them well even more this time of year.

Grossly Overseeded: Northern Iowa, #9-seed, 28-4. Northern Iowa’s only win in the NCAA was 20 years ago.  I know that has nothing to do with now, but the last four times they’ve been to the Tournament, they’ve been a popular upset pick and have always come up short.  To be honest, based on their body of work, they’re probably seeded where they should be, it’s just that there are a few teams seeded lower than them that are playing a little better brand of basketball right now.  If UNI can give us some results in the Tournament, then we’ll be happy to put some chips on their square in the future.

Grossly Underseeded: Michigan State, #5-seed, 24-8. At this point, we should all be used to Tom Izzo overachieving in the NCAA Tournament.  This team went 14-4 in the extremely tough Big Ten.  After that stretch in which they dropped three straight (at Wisconsin, at Illinois, and Purdue), everyone forgot about them.  Then they won five of six to end the year before the conference tournament, the only loss coming against surging Ohio State.  Don’t ever sell the Spartans short in the Big Dance.

Sweet Sixteen Sleeper: Houston, #13-seed, 19-15. Aubrey Coleman is the nation’s leading scorer at 25.0 PPG, and it looks like he and Kelvin Lewis have finally started to put it together.  Honestly, we thought we’d see more out of the Cougars this year.  They’ll be a tougher out for Maryland than everyone thinks.  Houston is second in the nation in turnovers per game (8.8), and 12th in turnovers forced (16.8), nice numbers when you have a pair of guards who can scoop up those turnovers and score quickly.

Final Four Sleeper:  #5 Michigan State. They can own a game through their work on the boards.

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From today until Selection Sunday, keep checking Rush the Court for updates on who’s in, who’s out and seeding.

UPDATES ALL DAY TODAY. FINAL BRACKET REVEALED JUST BEFORE 6 PM ET.

(Note: each of the four teams in one seed grouping is listed in pecking order in terms of who is closer to moving up a seed line. This is used to determine game location and matchups similar to Joe Lunardi’s S-Curve listing).

Also: play the NCAA Tournament Selection Sunday challenge at NCAA.com to be your own Bracketologist.

Italics indicates conference leaders/champions.

Last update: 03/14, 3:50 PM ET.

#1 Seeds: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, West Virginia

#2 Seeds: Duke, Ohio State, Kansas State, Georgetown

#3 Seeds: New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Villanova, Purdue

#4 Seeds: Baylor, Wisconsin, Temple, Tennessee

#5 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Michigan State, BYU

#6 Seeds: Maryland, Butler, Richmond, Xavier

#7 Seeds: Gonzaga, Northern Iowa, Texas, UNLV

#8 Seeds: Notre Dame, Marquette, Clemson, Oklahoma State

#9 Seeds: Florida State, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Missouri

#10 Seeds: UTEP, Old Dominion, Saint Mary’s, San Diego State

#11 Seeds: Wake Forest, Washington, California, Siena

#12 Seeds: Utah State, Minnesota, Cornell, Illinois

#13 Seeds: Murray State, New Mexico State, Oakland, Houston

#14 Seeds: Wofford, Sam Houston State, Ohio, Montana

#15 Seeds: Morgan State, UC-Santa Barbara, North Texas, Vermont

#16 Seeds: Robert Morris, East Tennessee State, Lehigh, Winthrop, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Last Four In: California, Utah State, Minnesota, Illinois

Last Four Out: Mississippi State, Florida, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall

Bids per conference: Big East (8), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (6), ACC (5), Mountain West (4), SEC (3), Atlantic 10 (3), Pac-10 (2), West Coast (2), WAC (2), C-USA (2).

The Big 12 Tourament’s second round has one heck of a night session in store, wouldn’t you say?  First, #9 Kansas State will have to try to find a way to cool off the Cowboys’ Keiton Page who started his tournament off with no less than a 5-out-of-5 three point barrage, finishing with 24 points and 7-10 shooting against Oklahoma.  There’s this other guy named James Anderson who might draw some attention, as well.  It’s not like K-State’s just here in Kansas City for the barbecue.  A couple of weeks ago, they were talked about as the possible fourth #1-seed in the NCAAs, but they dropped two straight to end the year.  They need a good showing here to maximize that regional seed.  ESPN 360 has this one and it starts at 7:00 PM ET.

If that wasn’t enough for you, how about a little in-state rivalry to end the evening?  Texas held off a tough Iowa State team last night behind the grit of Damion James and an efficient performance from Dexter Pittman.  A nap might be required in between games to get rested for this one, since Baylor is going to match Texas’ athleticism with the formidable trio of Ekpe Udoh, LaceDarius Dunn, and Tweety Carter.  Get your runnin’ shoes on.  This is going to be fun.  It’s on ESPN2 at 9:30 PM ET, and we’re there too.  Come check it out!

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I love days like yesterday.  Sure, the drive was a beautiful 8.5 hours of the same view — that is to say, farms, farms, and more farms, and where there weren’t actual farms, there was grass.  And it’s all flatter than a Shaquille O’Neal free throw.  But no matter the surroundings, it’s one of my favorite things to do.  Is there any greater feeling — especially right after thawing out from a tough winter — than packing a bag and a cooler (of fruit, granola, and bottled water, mind you), filling the gas tank, and hitting the road?  There aren’t many, for me.  Especially when the Big 12 Tournament is waiting at the end of that journey.  Don’t get me wrong, though — I was thankful for the satellite radio.  Have the satellite radio guys received their Nobel Prize, yet?  One second, I’m listening to ESPN Radio or Sporting News Radio dudes talking about hoops.  Then the NFL talk starts and I switch to, say, the BBC’s Europe Today, or a song by Gomez, or some blues from B.B. King.  Then back to hoops talk.  Fantastic.  And no, we’re not affiliated with them in any way.  I’m just being honest.

One of the best parts of any journey like this is when I text my friends who are at their jobs.  I’ll send them some generic message asking them what they’re doing, and they’ll respond with some variation of, “I’m at the office, knee-deep in status reports/memos/directives, trying to knock things off my action items list.  You never text during work hours.  What’s up?”  And I’ll type, “Oh, nothing.  I was driving to the Big 12 Tournament, enjoying some tunes, a gorgeous drive, a 70-degree day, and the prospect of four days of top-flight basketball.  Thought I’d give you a shout.  But you go back to your thing.”  Even though this is a blog and I’m allowed to type almost anything, I’ll spare you the vitriol that my friends offered in response.  Not even close to being safe for work.

So, as the comedian says, I’m here all week.  This’ll mostly be about basketball, but you might see some reviews of barbecue restaurants and/or interviews and pics from the festivities here.  This is such a great time of year, and this is the conference tournament at which to be.  Now, some notes from Wednesday’s games:

Texas 82, Iowa State 75

I didn’t know what we were going to get in this one, since Texas was obviously reeling, having dropped eight of 14, and Iowa State had just scored that victory over Kansas.  But is this what Texas needed, meaning the second season to arrive?  There’s a small part of me that’s been wondering if Texas mentally checked out at the midpoint of the season after they took their first loss because of the boredom that can take over teams.  A longshot, I know.  But there aren’t many reasons why a team this talented and athletic can’t get themselves out of first gear, a place they seemed to be stuck since the middle of January.

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Even though ESPN likes to hype up its Bracketbuster day, the fact is that the last few weeks of the season act like an elimination tournament with teams moving in and out of the NCAA Tournament, while other teams move up and down on a daily basis. While each and every game could theoretically have an impact on the Bubble and NCAA seeding, there are a few games that matter more than the others which we will feature over the next two weeks leading up to the conference tournaments. We will feature these in two posts per week. The first will be a post released on Sunday night for games from Monday through Thursday, and the second will be a post released on Thursday night for games from Friday through Sunday.

Tenth
Georgia Tech at Clemson on Raycom/ESPN Full Court at 8 PM on Tuesday – This game is important not just for NCAA seeding, but also for ACC seeding. Both teams are currently occupying a position in the ACC standings where they could easily rank anywhere from 3rd in the conference all the way down to 7th in the conference. That conference rank could be the difference between having to play Duke or having to play UNC (ok, I’ll admit that was a cheap shot Tar Heel fans) early in the ACC Tournament. As you would expect from fairly similar teams, they both sit in the middle of most brackets. I could see either one going as high as a 6-seed or as low as a 9-seed when Selection Sunday roles around and these head-to-head match-ups will play a huge role in where they fit in the bracket.

Ninth
Memphis at UAB on Comcast Sports South at 9 PM on Wednesday – It still seems incredible after all these years of John Calipari’s teams dominating Conference USA that the Tigers are no longer dominating CUSA any more. In fact, these two Conference USA teams will be playing for more than the #2 seed in the CUSA Tournament (UTEP is in the driver’s seat for the #1 seed) when they meet in Birmingham. They might be playing for an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament as well. Most bracketologists have the Blazers as one of their last teams in while the Tigers are one of the last teams out. A win by Josh Pastner’s squad could cause the teams to flip positions into and out of the bracket overnight. Normally I might make this game even higher, but I’m not buying the UTEP Kool-Aid and the loser could still get in with either a win in the conference tournament over the other or could potentially win the CUSA Tournament outright.

Eighth
Oklahoma State at #24 Texas A&M on ESPN at 9 PM on Wednesday – Both teams are coming off huge home wins. Now the question is whether they can sustain the momentum. The Cowboys will need to show they can win away from the land of perpetual T. Boone Pickens money and the Aggies will need to show they can win against a team that isn’t collapsing. Both teams are currently in a group of five Big 12 teams with in-conference records of either 8-6 or 9-5. A win here or there could mean the difference between finishing 3rd in the conference or finishing 7th in the conference and even though OSU has a win over KU everybody in the Big 12 (and the country) wants to avoid the Jayhawks for as long as possible in any tournament (Big 12 or NCAA). Right now both teams are in the 6-8 seed range, but a hot or cold streak to finish the season could mean anywhere from a 5-seed to a 10-seed for these two teams.

Seventh
#19 Vanderbilt at Florida on ESPN at 7 PM on Tuesday – The Gators are coming off a tough two-point loss at Georgia, but their prior three-game winning streak has assured them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Now they are entering a two-game stretch (home versus Vanderbilt then at Kentucky) where it might appear that they can only help their NCAA seed and a win could boost them 2-3 spots, but if they lose these two and their opener in the SEC Tournament a four-game losing streak might be enough to take them to the NIT for the third straight year. As for the Commodores, they have a treacherous two-game finish in Gainesville then at home against Devan Downey and company. They are currently chasing a #3 or #4 seed, but a loss in either of those games could cripple their chances at getting a top-4 seed (barring an upset victory over Kentucky in the SEC Tournament). Technically they still have a chance of winning the SEC regular season title (if they win out and the Wildcats finish on a 3-game losing streak), but we don’t see that happening.

Can Chandler Parsons and his Gators shoot their way into the field?

Sixth
#9 Villanova at Cincinnati on ESPN2 at 7 PM on Tuesday – The question here is how these teams respond to difficult loses on Saturday. Villanova’s loss was more visible and watched (by just about everyone in upstate New York–aka everything outside of NYC), but the Bearcats suffered a difficult loss in Morgantown where they blew a 2nd half lead before falling just short. The Wildcats loss likely will keep them out of a #1 seed, but the Bearcats loss might be enough to keep them out the NCAA Tournament altogether. A win here for Villanova would be big to ensure that they stay on the 2-seed line while Cincinnati needs a win here and probably at Georgetown along with 1 or 2 wins in the Big East Tournament to punch their ticket to the Big Dance.

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Now it’s getting serious.  College basketball teams across the country now fall into one of four camps: bored, because they know their NCAA bid is secure; resigned, because they’ve known for a long time that they’re out; relieved, because they think they’ve played their way in; and downright antsy, because they’ve still got work to do.  That last group are the most interesting ones at this time of year, and there are plenty of them out there.  We’ll be keeping an eye on all of those games and, of course, commenting on any game we can find on the tube in today’s three-man weave version of BGTD.  We hope to hear from you while we’re at it.  Here are the games on which we’ll definitely be keeping tabs, though we’ll probably find more throughout the day:

• 12 PM – Notre Dame @ #13 Georgetown on CBS (regional) – RTC Live
• 12 PM – #2 Kentucky @ #17 Tennessee on CBS (regional)
• 12 PM – Michigan @ #9 Ohio State on ESPN
• 12 PM – Northeastern @ George Mason on ESPN2
• 2 PM – North Carolina @ Wake Forest on CBS
• 2 PM – #21 Texas @ #23 Texas A&M on ESPN
• 2 PM – Mississippi @ Arkansas on ESPN2
• 4 PM – #1 Kansas @ Oklahoma State on CBS
• 4 PM – Florida @ Georgia on SEC Network
• 6 PM – Mississippi State @ South Carolina on ESPN
• 8 PM – Illinois State @ #22 Northern Iowa on ESPN2
• 8 PM – Missouri @ #6 Kansas State on ESPN-U
• 8 PM – Southern Miss @ Memphis on CBS College Sports
• 9 PM – #8 Villanova @ #4 Syracuse on ESPN

We will start with our coverage at 11 AM. Feel free to drop by throughout the day and ask questions/comment on anything that is happening in the world of college basketball.

11:05: Well it certainly is very orange in Syracuse. And Bob Knight with the first shot of the day mocking fans who would pay $750 to watch this game. Nice. Evan Turner just signed a “Evan Turner” home-made trophy being held by some kid wearing a home-made “Villain” t-shirt.

11:06: Knight just admitted he is rooting for Steve Alford and New Mexico tonight. Not a surprise, but still amusing. I’m sure the BYU players will have something to say to the media after the game.

11:10: We would love to interview the fan who sits in that seat or the row of seats that Erin Andrews just featured. The almost looks like Final Four type seating or what we saw earlier this year for the game at the new Cowboys stadium.

11:17: Hubert Davis calling out the Mountain West and BYU. Can we get Shawn Bradley on the phone to mock UNC? Jay Bilas comes to BYU’s defense by comparing them to and crushing Virginia Tech. He’s not going to be a popular guy the next time he visits Blacksburg. Digger makes the best point of the entire discussion by saying that the reason we are talking up the mid-majors is because the PAC-10 is awful this year.

11:20: “This is the weakest at-large field ever. The weakest at-large field ever.” – Jay Bilas. He should be fun on Selection Sunday.

11:21: Does Digger have a yellow highlighter today? Is this the first time he has went with the traditional yellow for his highlighter?

11:35: Nice feature about Hank Gathers. I still remember hearing about it the day it happened on SportsCenter the night it happened. Still jarring to see the video. Nice shout-out to RTC fan Jeff Fryer. It’s too bad they ran into the buzzsaw that was the 1990 UNLV team. I’m definitely looking forward to seeing that “30 for 30″ documentary.

11:45: I love seeing the replay of the Scottie Reynolds shot. Not because I root for Villanova, but because it is the craziest basketball moment I have ever seen in person. Just the ecstasy of the Villanova fans that followed their utter despair after they had almost blown the game moments before.

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As the season winds closer to a conclusion and Selection Sunday approaches, a bracket snapshot each Monday just doesn’t quite seem adequate. From now until the end of the year, we’ll be providing a Friday seed update that outlines where each team inside and just outside the field of 65 currently stands along with reasoning why certain teams changed seed number since the previous Monday.

(Note: each of the four teams in one seed grouping is listed in pecking order in terms of who is closer to moving up a seed line. This is used to determine game location and matchups similar to Joe Lunardi’s S-Curve listing. Auto bids marked in italics).

#1 Seeds: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Purdue

#2 Seeds: Duke, Kansas State, Villanova, West Virginia

#3 Seeds: Georgetown, New Mexico, Ohio State, Pittsburgh

#4 Seeds: Vanderbilt, BYU, Temple, Wisconsin

#5 Seeds: Michigan State, Gonzaga, Butler, Baylor

#6 Seeds: Texas, Xavier, Texas A&M, Tennessee

#7 Seeds: Wake Forest, Richmond, Maryland, Northern Iowa

#8 Seeds: Missouri, UNLV, Florida State, Illinois

#9 Seeds: Oklahoma State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, UTEP

#10 Seeds: Florida, Virginia Tech, Marquette, California

#11 Seeds: Louisville, Old Dominion, Rhode Island, UAB

#12 Seeds: Connecticut, Utah State, Saint Mary’s, Siena

#13 Seeds: Cornell, Charlotte, Kent State, Oakland

#14 Seeds: Murray State, Wofford, Weber State, Sam Houston State

#15 Seeds: Morgan State, Coastal Carolina, North Texas, UC-Santa Barbara

#16 Seeds: Jacksonville, Stony Brook, Robert Morris, Lehigh, Jackson State

Last Four In: Charlotte, Saint Mary’s, Connecticut, UAB

Last Four Out: Mississippi State, Dayton, San Diego State, Arizona State

Next Four Out: Mississippi, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Notre Dame

Bids per conference: Big East (8), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Atlantic 10 (5), Big 10 (5), SEC (4), MWC (3), Conference USA (2).

Analysis after the break:

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RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every week until Madness ensues.

With just over two weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, the bubble is starting to shrink as more teams move into lock status:

Richmond- The current A-10 co-leader has the most difficult stretch to finish the season with trips to Xavier and Charlotte and a home date with Dayton. Even losing all three wouldn’t squash the Spiders.

Xavier- The Musketeers really only needed to split their road trip at Charlotte and St. Louis. Instead, they went out and won both. With a high RPI and three winnable games left, Xavier is back in the field yet again.

Maryland- The Terrapins have now won four in a row and collected huge home wins over Georgia Tech in miracle fashion and Clemson in comeback fashion. Gary Williams has his squad 10-3 in the ACC.

Missouri- Mike Anderson’s team only needs to win one of their next four games (the four includes their first round matchup in the Big 12 Tournament). The home win over Texas pretty much sealed the deal.

Baylor- The Bears clinched a berth with their squeaker over Texas A&M last night in Waco. Their non-conference wins over Xavier (neutral) and at Arizona State seems a bit stronger, as well.

Texas- Winning at Texas Tech and taking care of Oklahoma State in Austin were the clinchers. Texas has four wins vs. the RPI top-50, but could still finish at a disappointing 9-7 in the Big 12.

Texas A&M- The win at Iowa State last Saturday clinched their bid. The Aggies have tremendous computer numbers, won at Missouri and beat Baylor at home.

UNLV- A lock for two reasons: 1) wins over BYU, at New Mexico, at Arizona and vs. Louisville and 2) their final two games against Wyoming and Air Force, teams that have combined for three MWC wins this season.

Atlantic 10

Locks: Temple, Richmond, Xavier

Rhode Island (28 RPI, 60 SOS)- The Rams hit a rough patch in mid-February losing three in a row in A-10 play, but they righted the ship this past Saturday against hapless Fordham and now head into their last three very winnable games. URI must travel to St. Bonaventure and Massachusetts with a huge bubble game against Charlotte at home sandwiched in between. If the Rams win out, they’ll finish 23-6 (11-5) in a strong Atlantic 10 and would, in all likelihood, received a bid as long as they’re not upset in the first round of the conference tournament. What’s concerning is that the Rams will head into that tournament with just two wins vs. the RPI top 50- Oklahoma State and Dayton. Current seed range: 11-12.

Dayton (43 RPI, 37 RPI)- Speaking of Dayton, unless the Flyers can stun Richmond on the road, they’ll be sitting squarely on the bubble heading into the A-10 tournament. Dayton probably passes the eye test and they do have out-of-conference wins over Georgia Tech on a neutral floor and Old Dominion. They’ve also lost a handful of close conference road games and beat fellow bubble squad Charlotte by 28 in their lone meeting. Still, the Flyers are just 3-6 vs. the RPI top 50 and 5-8 vs. the RPI top 100, and, factoring in a loss at Richmond on March 4, they’d finish an uninspiring 9-7 in A-10 play. It’ll come down to the A-10 tournament for the preseason favorites. Current seed range: Last Four Out.

Charlotte (55 RPI, 106 SOS)- The 49ers still have a shot to make the NCAA’s, but blew a golden opportunity at home against Xavier last Saturday to pick up an RPI top-25 win and lost by 14. Now they have to win two of their last three at George Washington, at Rhode Island and home vs. Richmond. Charlotte did pick up a big non-conference win at Louisville, but will the committee factor in the Cardinals depleted state at the time? What will help them more are A-10 wins over Temple and at Richmond. A 106 SOS and just four wins vs. the RPI top-100 doesn’t help the cause. They need to split those last two games to have a real shot. Current seed range: Last four out.

Bobby Lutz's 49ers are currently on the outside looking in

ACC

Locks: Duke, Wake Forest, Maryland

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1. Appropriately, we begin with D2 Philadelphia University’s head coach Herb Magee winning his 902nd game on Saturday, which ties Bobby Knight for first place on the all-time NCAA victories list for a men’s basketball coach.  Magee, to whom the guys from our Backdoor Cuts feature devoted their column last week, has been at Philadelphia for 50 years — as a player from 1959-63, an assistant coach from 1963-67, and head coach since then — but his record-tying win wasn’t secured until the game’s very last second, when Philadelphia U.’s Jim Connolly hit a three-pointer to win it over Post University, 70-67.  Magee will go for win #903 at home against Goldey-Beacom College on Tuesday.
2. Great stuff here from The Big Lead.  If you’re a college basketball player, it’s always important to listen to your coach, right?  Especially in a very important late-February game between a conference’s two best teams.  That can be tough, depending on what distractors are in the area.  In Saturday’s intense Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt game, while John Calipari was drawing up a play during a time out, the Wildcats’ DeMarcus Cousins was busted eyeballing an undeniably strong distractor in the form of a certain ESPN sideline reporter, not that we’re castin’ any stones…
3. New York Times college sports reporter (and excellent tweeter) Pete Thamel had the privilege of spending his Saturday in Tempe, Arizona, the site of the secret little talks going on between USC and the NCAA’s infractions committee.  He logs an excellent summary here, with the reactions of two USC coaches (one current, one former) catching our eye:  1) we were moved to downright guffaws by the moral ascendancy Tim Floyd appears to be claming, as he opined that appearing before the committee was “the right thing to do,” and 2) we loved Lane Kiffin’s admission after the three-day hearings, proclaiming “I’ve never moved less in a 72-hour period,” which was only slightly shorter than his tenure in Knoxville.
4. We also give Mr. Thamel an assist on this one, which we started checking out because of a tweet of his (seriously, he’s really good)…but it just keeps getting worse for Binghamton.  They’re now down to two coaches, now that assistant Marc Hsu has been placed on leave following a report by the school alleging that Hsu gave money to a player and did coursework for several members of the team.  Hsu hasn’t been on the bench for the last three games, and this suspension is indefinite.
5. Oklahoma’s Willie Warren missed Saturday’s loss to Kansas State due to mononucleosis, a diagnosis that also caused him to sit out the Sooners’ loss to Oklahoma State two games ago.  Warren played in the loss at Colorado this past Wednesday, which struck us as odd, given the debilitating nature of mono and the fact that the older you are when you get it, the worse you usually feel.  If you’ve never had it, it causes flu-like symptoms but it absolutely drains you of energy.  What’s worse, in some cases it can cause enlargement of the spleen, an organ you don’t want to bust open, which is why kids and adolescents with mono are told to stay away from contact sports/ballet/wrestling with siblings/etc until further notice — usually at least a month.  You can also still spread it (through saliva) anywhere from six to 18 months after having it, and even though most people recover to full strength, the only treatments are the tinctures of time and rest.  The Sooners aren’t going dancing this year, and Warren’s health comes first, so we couldn’t blame the OU program if official word soon came down that Warren was going to miss the rest of the year.  Mononucleosis is no picnic, despite the fact that it gets glossed over quite frequently, so we hope Warren is back to his old self soon.

Even though ESPN likes to hype up its Bracketbuster day the fact is that the last few weeks of the season act like an elimination tournament with teams moving in and out of the NCAA Tournament while other teams move up and down on a daily basis. While each and every game could theoretically have an impact on the Bubble and NCAA seeding there are a few games that matter more than the others which we will feature over the next two weeks leading up to the conference tournaments. We will feature these in two posts per week. The first will be a post released on Sunday night for games from Monday through Thursday and the second will be a post released on Thursday night for games from Friday through Sunday.

Fifth
#8 West Virginia at UConn at 7 PM on ESPN on Monday – The Mountaineers will need a miracle to get a #1 seed, but this is a “must-win” if UConn wants to get into the NCAA Tournament. After this game the Huskies do not have another opponent that would impress the Selection Committee until they begin the Big East Tournament. Despite the fact that their “ceiling” is probably a #2 seed this game is also very important for the Mountaineers who need to be careful here because they finish with a tricky stretch with this game being following by games at home against Cincinnati and Georgetown then a trip to Villanova before the Big East Tournament. If the Mountaineers do not finish strong (at least 2-2) they could be looking at a #4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Ebanks is the X-factor for West Virginia

Fourth
#22 Texas A&M at #24 Baylor at 9 PM on ESPNU on Wednesday – This is one game that does not feature a bubble team since both of these teams are in the NCAA Tournament, but this game does have big seeding implications. Right now these teams are competing for the #3 spot in the Big 12 behind Kansas and Kansas State. Both of these teams could fall anywhere from a #5 seed to a #8 seed and the difference for both could well be this game. Texas A&M has been playing well lately with only one loss this month (by 5 to Kansas). Up until Saturday when they lost in Stillwater, Baylor had not lost since they traveled to College Station. Now the Bears welcome the Aggies to Waco hoping to return the favor as inhospitable hosts. Both teams have favorable schedules down the stretch (read: no Kansas or Kansas State) so the winner of this has the inside track along with Texas for that coveted #3 seed in the Big 12 Tournament to avoid Kansas in the semifinals and get a higher seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Third
Oklahoma State at #21 Texas at 9 PM on ESPN2 on Wednesday – The Cowboys picked up a big win on Saturday against Baylor, which should put them on the inside of the Bubble, but they are entering a difficult 3-game stretch: at Texas, home against Kansas, and at Texas A&M. Winning 2 of 3 should ensure that the Cowboys get in to the NCAA Tournament, but if they lose all 3 games (not an unreasonable proposition) they will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday. As for the Longhorns, we are not sure what to say about them at this point. Outside of UNC there has not been a more disappointing team in the nation–the Tar Heels have a safe lead in this category–yet we know that they are the one underachieving team that nobody wants to see in the pod when the brackets come out. Right now people have them in the #5-6 range, but they have a 4 very winnable games to finish the regular season (at Texas A&M and Baylor will be challenging as both teams took the Longhorns to OT in Austin earlier this year, but the Longhorns should expect to win those games). If they can get their act together, this team could get back to a #3-4 seed given their 3 wins (and counting) against the RPI top 25. If they don’t they could slip down to the #8-9 range, which could make for a very interesting 2nd round match-up in the NCAA Tournament for a #1 seed.

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Hello everybody, welcome back to another thrilling edition of Boom Goes the Dynamite.  If you haven’t noticed, we’re at the point of the season where every game has a little more intensity, a little more pressure, a little more edginess, as each team tries to attract the eye of the fickle Selection Committee.  Whether in an attempt to lock up a high seed or simply to make the darn thing, the next three weeks will present ample opportunities for every team to make its case, for better or worse.  As always, we’ll be right there with you throughout the day, checking in on the big games and others of varying importance.  While today isn’t a blockbuster day in terms of key games, there are always going to be a good number at this time of year.  Below are the ones we’ll be keeping an eye on…

11 AM: Siena @ #13 Butler on ESPN2 – RTC Live
12 PM: Florida @ Ole Miss on CBS
12 PM: Seton Hall @ #8 West Virginia on ESPN
12 PM: Morgan State @ Murray State on ESPNU
1 PM: Louisiana Tech @ Northeastern on ESPN2
1:30 PM: #22 Baylor @ Oklahoma State on ESPN360
2 PM: #17 Texas @ Texas Tech on ESPN
2 PM: Georgia Tech @ Maryland on ESPN360 – RTC Live
2 PM: Xavier @ Charlotte on CSS
4 PM: Illinois @ #4 Purdue on ESPN
4 PM: UTEP @ Tulsa on CBS CS – RTC Live
4 PM: Colorado @ #1 Kansas on ESPN360
6 PM: #2 Kentucky @ #19 Vanderbilt on ESPN
6 PM: #7 Kansas State @ Oklahoma on ESPNU
8 PM: Charleston @ George Mason on ESPN2
9 PM: UCLA @ Washington on ESPN
12 AM: Wichita State @ Utah State on ESPN2 – RTC Live

11:02: And we’re live with another BGTD. Interesting decision by ESPN to keep GameDay at 11 AM with the Siena-Butler game on ESPN2. We already have someone doing a RTC Live for the Siena-Butler game so we’ll focus more on GameDay than we otherwise would. Definitely check out our RTC Live of the game though.

11:07: The ESPN analysts are really going out on a limb saying the Big East Tournament will be the best of the conference tournament. Digger breaks with the group and goes with the Big Ten. Surprisingly Bobby Knight calls out the Big Ten saying the Big East would beat them head-to-head.

11:09: In another surprise, Jay Bilas goes against Coach K by saying that the conference tournaments effectively act as a huge NCAA Tournament and if you win you are into the real NCAA Tournament. Digger agrees with him while Hubert Davis attempts to make a ridiculous argument against the automatic bid saying it penalizes teams like Siena that dominate their conferences, but might choke in the conference tournament. Personally I think if you’re that good you can earn an at-large bid with your play throughout the season. Knight holds the coaching fraternity party line saying that he wants to expand the tournament. Translation: Nobody gets fired ever.

11:15: Just flipped over to ESPN2 where the announcers were comparing Gordon Hayward to Mike Dunleavy Jr. I’m not sure if they are talking about their games or the way they look. Where is the college basketball Spike Lee who will call out these announcers for comparing the two only because they are white guys who look fairly similar? For the record their games are pretty similar. Feel free to call me out in the comment section. . .

11:20: Knight wants “The Committee” to get an ex-coach on there (like him?) and the team’s last 18 games. I have no idea how he decided on 18. Why not 20? The other talking heads rip the RPI. Davis wants to take the strength of schedule component out of the RPI and wants to use an “eye test” to replace it. I’d like to see Professor Davis come up with a quantitative way to come up with the “eye test” score.

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Former Oklahoma State coach Sean Sutton, son of famed coach Eddie Sutton, was arrested on Thursday for attempting to fraudulently possess controlled substances.  He was jailed in Stillwater, Oklahoma last night and the original report from Tulsa World did not specify a time for his arraignment.

Also from the report, an extra wrinkle to this is that Sutton used his cell phone as a means to obtaining the substances and had been receiving shipments from multiple states (New York and Washington are specified in the story) containing the drugs.  A parcel had arrived for Sutton in Stillwater on Thursday; when he went to pick it up, Oklahoma narcotics agents confronted Sutton, who eventually confessed that he was “addicted to painkillers” and had been ordering the controlled substances to feed the addiction.  There is also the question of Sutton having made multiple visits to physicians but not revealing to the individual doctors that he was doing so, as a means to obtain the drugs.

The package snagged by the Oklahoma agents reportedly contained “Adderall and clonazepam.”  Adderall is a brand name for a combination drug containing dextroamphetamine and amphetamine, substances that increase the amount of certain neurotransmitters in the brain.  It increases awareness and wakefulness, as  well as libido, and decreases appetite.  It’s usually used for treatment of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, but it has a very high potential for addiction.  The street value comes from the effects mentioned above, and it’s frequently abused a stimulant and a weight-loss drug.

Clonazepam is the generic name for a drug more widely known as Klonopin, a drug most often used as treatment for seizure disorders like epilepsy, or as a treatment for anxiety.  Because it has an overall net “depressant” effect, it is often abused as a sedative or in conjunction with other drugs to enhance the first drug’s effect.

No other substances were named in the Tulsa World report.

(h/t: @TheBigLead)

Pardon the baseball reference, but we know that if a guy’s throwing a no-hitter you’re not supposed to talk to him about it.  In fact, you’re supposed to just stay away from him, let him sit in the dugout alone, and act like nothing special is happening.  We don’t go for such superstitions around here, so let’s check out the teams that are currently undefeated in their conferences, and who has the best chance to actually pull off a perfect conference campaign.

Last season, there were only two teams that streaked through their conference schedules without a blemish — Memphis went 16-0 in the CUSA, and Gonzaga tallied a perfect 14-0 in the WCC.  Memphis kept it going three games into this conference season, but back on January 20th UTEP showed the Tigers that they were having none of that, and snapped Memphis’ conference winning streak at 64 games.  The Zags stumbled ten days later at San Francisco after winning their first six WCC games this season.

Can Aldrich, Collins, and the rest of the Jayhawks run the conference table?

Right now (before Thursday night’s games), there are no less than eight teams with perfect conference records.  We list them here along with the next time they’ll put it on the line, and our prediction as to when they’ll drop their first conference game — if at all:

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.  He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next two months.

Some quick thoughts going into the last five weeks before Selection Sunday…

• Kansas remains the #1 overall seed by squeaking out two games this week against Nebraska and Colorado to remain undefeated atop the Big 12. Both Syracuse and Kentucky took care of business behind them. Despite being romped by Georgetown on Saturday, Villanova slips in as the last #1 seed but must play in Salt Lake City.
• Georgetown appeared as though they might slip from the #2 seed line after their loss to South Florida mid-week, but their statement victory against Villanova healed all wounds. Also on the second line are West Virginia and Duke. Losing two games this week still kept Michigan State as a #2 seed slightly ahead of Wisconsin and Purdue due to the Spartans being the projected conference champions.
• Wisconsin, Purdue and Kansas State as #3 seeds were obvious, but New Mexico’s impressive portfolio really jumped out at me at 21-3 (7-2) a #10 RPI and six wins over the RPI top 50. Surviving a scare from San Diego State allowed the Lobos to claim this lofty seed and play closer to home in San Jose.
• Three big climbers this week were Wake Forest, UNLV and Richmond. The Demon Deacons picked up an underrated road win at Virginia and, with an RPI/SOS in the top 25 and four top-50 wins, they’re building quite the resume. Wake might be the second-best team in the ACC. UNLV destroying BYU in Vegas pushed the Rebels up to a #6 seed while Richmond’s dispatching of Temple moved them up from bubble territory to a much more comfortable #8 seed.
• The Big East is incredibly muddled in the middle. Out of the 12 teams in my LFI, LFO and NFO categories, five reside from the Big East. Notre Dame could have been dead with a loss yesterday to South Florida, but an Irish win keeps them very much alive and doesn’t allow the Bulls to inch into the periphery of the bubble. Illinois and Virginia Tech just could not be denied entry due to their conference records despite lackluster computer numbers. Louisville and Cincinnati are also close calls.
• Marquette and Old Dominion were extremely close for the last bid, but the Golden Eagles winning their last three while the Monarchs have fallen in two of their last three flip-flopped the schools. Coincidentally, both hold a signature win over Georgetown. One team that needs to watch out is Oklahoma State, now straddled with a losing Big 12 record and just three wins over the RPI top 100.

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***** - quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** - best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** - set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** - set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* - don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Connecticut @ Louisville – 7 pm on ESPN (**)

It’s not too often that a team can be ranked one week and out of the Tournament the next, but that is what UConn could be facing after following up a #19 ranking with back to back losses.  The Huskies lost at Providence and allowed Marquette to come back in the final minute for another loss, and the Huskies now stand on the outer edge of the bubble at 13-8 overall.  Their RPI ranking is fairly acceptable at #44, but they are going to have to play well at Louisville to give themselves a chance.  The Cardinals, who have not been ranked for a while, have a lower RPI and really need to turn things around soon to receive a Tournament bid.  They have lost four of their last five games and the Huskies have lost five of their last seven games.   Both of these teams are going to have to play to their strengths if they want to be successful down the stretch.  Louisville has a solid offense at 79.8 points per game, largely due to their efficiency and solid rebounding.   The Huskies have played well defensively this year, leading the country with 8.5 blocks per game.  These teams have occasionally struggled even when they have been able to play their style.  UL lost its only Big East games when Samardo Samuels scores over 20 points, and Connecticut has lost games when they gave up 70, 68, 67, 64, and 68 points.  Still, UL is not going to win games by holding opponents to 60 points, and the Huskies aren’t going to be lighting up the scoreboard.  The Huskies have not won on the road this year, and I do not expect them to start winning tonight in the midst of another losing streak.

#6 Texas @ Oklahoma State – 9 pm on ESPN (***)

James Has Been On Fire Lately

These teams are struggling despite some of the best individual performances we have seen in the Big 12 all year.  The Longhorns have lost three of four games, but senior Damion James has been on a tear.  He’s averaging 24/13 in his last three games.  Oklahoma State’s James Anderson scored 31 points in his last game against Missouri and still lost, largely due to giving up 95 points to a Missouri team that shot 55 percent from three in the game.  Nobody knows what to expect from either of these teams anymore, but look for the Cowboys to get a close win.  Oklahoma State is undefeated this year at home, while the Longhorns have dropped their last two road games.  Despite the Longhorns ranking in the top 10 in defensive efficiency on the year, they have played quite poorly as of late.  They have surrendered over 80 points per game in this four-game stretch, and have also seen their offensive numbers drop.  UT is second in the country at 85.3 points per game, but when they only rank 34^th in offensive efficiency, they are going to lose some games when they play poorly on the other end.  James and Anderson can only lead their teams so far, so somebody else will have to step up and make a difference in this game.

***** - quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** - best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** - set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** - set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* - don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

#7 Duke @ #11 Georgetown  1:00 CBS (****)

Duke Will Have Its Hands Full in DC

Although John Thompson III has said he does not want to be playing in this out of conference matchup right now, fans have been looking forward to this game for quite some time.  In addition to the possibility of President Obama attending the game, this is a matchup between a current #2 seed in the tournament and a #3 or #4 seed in Georgetown.  When Duke’s 82.2 ppg offense goes against Georgetown’s 62.0 defensive average, something is going to have to budge.  Despite Duke’s top ranking in offensive efficiency, they will certainly not be able to run over the Hoyas.  GU held Pitt to 66 points on the road, and held Syracuse, UConn, and Marquette below their season average.  Although Duke outscores the Hoyas by over 10 points per contest on average, they also hold opponents to fewer points per game rank higher in defensive efficiency.  Nevertheless, the Blue Devils lost their first three road games of the year to Wisconsin, Georgia Tech, and Clemson, none of whom are as dangerous as the Hoyas.  GU blew a golden opportunity at the Carrier Dome last week, so look for them to take out some frustration on the Blue Devils. Austin Freeman scored 23 points against the Orange, and the Hoyas will likely depend on him to give Georgetown the win.

Oklahoma St @ Missouri 2:00 ESPN (***)

As George W. Bush once attempted to say, “fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.”  Oklahoma State made me look foolish when they beat Texas A&M last week, and Missouri embarrassed me with their performance in Lawrence when they kept up with the Jayhawks for the first five minutes and called it a day.  The Cowboys have now won three Big 12 games in a row, while Mizzou has now lost two of their last three contests.  OSU showed they could win without a strong performance from James Anderson, who didn’t score the first 18 minutes of the Aggie game.  The Aggies do have a couple things going for them as well.  They will be playing at home, where they are 12-0 this year, and still rank #12 in the country according to Ken Pomeroy with their sixth ranked defense.  Their D didn’t look so impressive last week when they gave up 50 first half points to Kansas, as they let the Jayhawks shoot over 49 percent from the floor and 47 percent from beyond the arc.  Senior Obi Muonelo is hot for Oklahoma State right now, and look for him to lead the Cowboys to a fourth consecutive Big 12 win.

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RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every week until Madness ensues.

Another week down, another Bubble Watch update, this time a day early…

ACC

Locks: Duke has rebounded nicely from their slip-up in Raleigh last Wednesday with two quality wins at Clemson and vs. Florida State. The Blue Devils appear destined to run the table at home and only have two difficult, yet winnable, road dates remaining at North Carolina and at Maryland. 11-5 in the ACC seems like a worse-case scenario for Duke, and even that record may be enough to win the league and garner a top-three seed in March.

Should be in: Wake Forest’s RPI has slowly but surely climbed into the 20-range heading into tonight’s important game at Georgia Tech. Even with a loss tonight, the Deacons next six ACC games (three road trips are at Virginia, Virginia Tech and NC State) are all very winnable. I wouldn’t completely eliminate Wake from the ACC title race if Ish Smith and Al-Farouq Aminu continue to play so well. Georgia Tech sits at a pedestrian 3-3 in the ACC but did defeat Duke and the Yellow Jackets have a chance to pick up another quality in-conference win tonight against Wake. Paul Hewitt’s team shouldn’t get too comfortable, though, with a challenging road slate still ahead. Florida State plays a crucial game at Boston College on Saturday. It’s a team that Noles should beat, but judging from their loss earlier in ACC play to NC State in Tallahassee and over the course of Leonard Hamilton’s coaching tenure, that doesn’t always equal victory. Lose to the Eagles and Florida State begins to trend towards the bubble.

On the bubble: Clemson still finds themselves on the right side of the bubble picture, but the Tigers are moving closer to the 9/10 seed line than 4/5 with their recent three-game losing skid. Luckily for Clemson, four of their next five are inside the friendly confines of Littlejohn Coliseum with their only road game at Virginia Tech. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Tigers reel off five consecutive in the win column here and firmly establish their bid. Maryland leads the ACC with a 4-1 mark but have benefited from a hospitable schedule. It becomes much more challenging right away for the Terps with two on the road at Clemson and Florida State. Split those two and the Terrapins remain in the field. The most crucial win of the week may have been North Carolina dispatching rival NC State in what could have been a disastrous outcome for the psyche of that basketball team. The Heels welcome Virginia to the Dean Dome next, but check out the next three: @Virginia Tech, @Maryland and vs. Duke. Frankly, neither 3-0 nor 0-3 would totally shock me.

Booker vital for the Tigers NCAA chances

On the fringe: Virginia Tech is going to have to win a lot of basketball games to overcome their #76 RPI and #270 SOS, two stats currently acting as a firm anchor on Tech’s NCAA hopes. Their next two roadies at Virginia and Miami both need to be won for the Hokies to squirm their way back into the field. It won’t be easy, though, as Virginia has knocked off Georgia Tech and Miami has beaten Wake Forest in their respective home buildings. Much like Virginia Tech, those teams desperately need wins and quickly.

Big East

Locks: The five locks at the top of the premiere conference in the land remain firmly entrenched in the field. This pack is led by Villanova at a sparkling 8-0 in the Big East. The reason why I favor Syracuse to win the league in the end is the clear scheduling advantage for the Orange. While the Wildcats have to travel to Georgetown, West Virginia, Pittsburgh and Syracuse, the Orange only must go to D.C. and their next most challenging road games are at fringe-NCAA teams Cincinnati and Louisville. Regardless, both are clearly locks and #1-seed contenders. West Virginia picked up a bounce-back win Saturday over Ohio State and, despite their point guard woes, appear destined for a top-three seed. They have two great opportunities ahead with Pitt and Villanova coming to Morgantown. Despite a two-loss week, Pittsburgh remains safe. After a game at rival West Virginia on February 3, Pitt doesn’t play another NCAA team on the road the rest of the way unless Notre Dame makes it, plus they have that win at Syracuse in their back pocket. Georgetown was thumped at Syracuse Monday, but they’re more than fine. Beating Duke on Saturday would be enormous as far as seeding and portfolios are concerned.

Should be in: Just when you think Connecticut is back, they have the ultimate letdown performance at Providence yesterday where shooting and turnovers woes re-emerged. Still, the Huskies have an RPI in the 20-range and have played the most difficult schedule in the nation. Connecticut also doesn’t have a true road win in their portfolio this season with their next opportunity coming February 1 at Louisville.

Jerome Dyson's maddening inconsistency has drawn the ire of his coach

On the bubble: Louisville beat Cincinnati in an important bubble duel Sunday, but the Bearcats were in my bracket that same night while the Cardinals were left out because Cincy has a better overall resume. In fact, that very win might have been the best to date for Louisville this season. They absolutely must beat Connecticut at home and avoid an upset bid at St. John’s to re-emerge in the bracket. It’s fair to pontificate that Cincinnati peaked at Maui and their collapse at St. John’s certainly stings, but the Bearcats still have a decent chance with a #49 RPI and a #29 SOS. Their rematch at Notre Dame on February 4 looms large. Seton Hall carried home wins over Pitt, Louisville and Cincinnati into the back end of my last bracket. If they can go 1-2 on their upcoming three-game swing through USF, Villanova and Pitt, the Pirates may be able to earn a bid with a favorable schedule the rest of the way.

On the fringe: Could Notre Dame be staring at 9-4 in the Big East when they travel to Louisville on February 17? It’s entirely possible with their next five games at Rutgers, vs. Cincinnati, vs. South Florida, at Seton Hall and vs. St. John’s. Even if they just stand at 8-5, that’s still 8-5 in the #1 RPI conference. Still, they finish with a difficult last five and the quality wins are not there, meaning it’ll be difficult for the Irish to make the tournament.

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***** - quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** - best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** - set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** - set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* - don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

#23 Vanderbilt @ #14 Tennessee – 7pm on ESPNU (*****)

This should be an absolutely fantastic game. It features one of the country’s favorite teams right now in Bruce Pearl’s new-look Volunteers, as well as the most underrated team in the country in Vanderbilt. These teams are in-state rivals, and a win will be huge for either team. Tennessee just suffered their first loss since the arrest of four players earlier this month to Georgia over the weekend. This group of “new” players has not had to face adversity yet this year on the court, so it will be key for their confidence to win this one at home. Vanderbilt is on a tear, winning their last nine games en route to becoming the only undefeated team remaining in the SEC. They have shown the ability to play both sound offense and defense at times, but tonight’s game will truly test their grit when they play in Knoxville, where the Volunteers have not lost since last season. As Wayne Chism goes, so goes the Vols. He only scored six points in UT’s loss to Georgia and eight points in their loss to USC, but he has shown the ability to carry the team on his back as well (Ole Miss comes to mind). If Chism gets going against the Commodores, Tennessee will keep their home winning streak alive.

Notre Dame @ #3 Villanova – 7 pm on ESPN (***)

This is a fantastic game, but it may be lost among the plethora of incredible matchups available tonight. The Irish are right on the bubble if the season ended today, and they have six winnable games coming up on the horizon, so a victory over Villanova tonight could spark the fire they need to push through this season. Notre Dame is not getting much love in the polls, at #68 in the RPI and #80 according to Ken Pomeroy, but they are comparable to Villanova statistically. They average over 80 points a game and give up just 0.6 points more per contest than the Wildcats. Villanova is one of those teams that finds ways to win games, but Notre Dame has already beaten a top ten team previously this season in West Virginia. That victory was at home, though, and they will need to step up their game to win at the Wachovia Center, where the Wildcats are undefeated. Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher are the two guards to watch in this game, but Notre Dame also has some underrated guards in Ben Hansbrough and Tory Jackson that get overshadowed by their big men. Those two average more than five assists per game (Villanova has just one guard averaging over 3.5 per game) to complement forward Luke Harangody who can get down the court fairly quickly for a 246-pound player. Villanova has had more success this season, and is probably more talented as well, so expect the Wildcats to get off to their best start in school history tonight.

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Once again we find ourselves with another stacked weekend of college basketball.  142 games in Division I today, and quite a number of those are somewhere on the tube.  It’s getting interesting.  Some of the big names are starting to come back to the pack a little, and some teams we’d all forgotten about are starting to put some wins together.  We’ll be here all day, watching it, commenting on it, enjoying it.  We’d like to know what you’re watching and what you think of it all, too, which is why we’re back with another version of BGTD today.  We’ll start off checking out Michigan State vs Minnesota and Villanova vs St. John’s, and head for points south and west after that.  We’ve even got a man on the ground for RTC Live at the latter game, there, as well as a few more spots today.  By all means, join us for a bit.  We’ll kick it off in about 10-15 minutes!

12:11 PM ET: Greetings from us to you on this big hoops day.  JStev here, starting it off with you.  My goodness, Villanova sure has wasted no time in jumping on the Johnnies.  Up by seven early and they’ve already forced SJU into five turnovers.  We’re just now at the under-16 TVTO.  Over on the Big East Network we have Georgetown/Rutgers, with the Hoyas trying to avoid a letdown after their impressive performance at Pittsburgh a few nights ago.  Against Rutgers at home that should be no problem, and I’m thinking G’town will have quite a jump in the polls, come Monday.  Hoyas up by three early, and Rutgers is already standing straight up in their zone.  Minnesota has also shown up early and taken a quick nine-point lead against Michigan State…and ladies and gentlemen, say hello to MR. GUS JOHNSON on the call on CBS.  I’ve found my primary game.

12:28: Gus Johnson could comment on the progress of a slug slithering along a rain gutter and, if you heard it, it’d be the most exciting thing you did that day.  We’ve said that — or something similar — about a gazillion times on this site and it’s always the truth.  He’s showing you why in this game, even this early.  Minnesota’s kept their lead in this one despite a little comeback from MSU.  Still up seven under seven minutes to play.  Dwight Hardy has come out on fire, hitting 5-6 against the Hoyas, and the Johnnies have looked like a different team in the last ten minutes.  They’re up by TEN on ‘Nova, now!  It’s physical, and if St. John’s wants to have a shot at pulling this off, they better be ready to grind it out against Villanova.  They’re glad to bang it out with anyone.

12:46: Great point by Doris Burke as they go to commercial in the ‘Nova/SJU game.  When it comes to pulling an upset, you can’t expect to play on an equal footing in ANY aspect of the game.  You have to OUT-do your opponent in EVERY aspect of the game.  You can’t just hustle as much as them, you have to OUThustle them, etc.  That seems like an obvious point, but I bet coaches out there have a harder time getting that across to their teams than you might think.  Oh, and Scottie Reynolds just hit a running bank shot off glass that was so gorgeous it almost brought tears.  It’ll bring him millions of bucks.  Soon.

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RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every Friday until Madness ensues.

You know we’re headed to the stretch run towards March Madness when Bubble Watch debuts here at Rush the Court. Let’s go through all six major conferences plus those non-BCS contenders to determine who’s safely in the field, who still has work to accomplish, who’s sitting firmly on the bubble and who needs to rack up the wins to be dancing when the brackets are determined. Without further ado:

ACC

Locks: Although the massive jumble in the middle of the ACC does include Duke, they are still a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Devils feature an RPI/SOS in the top ten and quality wins over Clemson, Arizona State, Connecticut and Wake Forest. Still, it has to be concerning for Coach K that it’s mid-January and his team is 0-3 in true road games.

Should be in: I’d be surprised if Clemson at 15-4 (3-2) and a #30 RPI didn’t make the field. After welcoming Duke into town Saturday night, the Tigers will have moved past the hardest portion of their ACC slate into a stretch of four of six at home with Maryland, Florida State, Miami and Virginia making a trip to Littlejohn Coliseum. Mixed in there is a trip to BC and a more difficult roadie at Virginia Tech. By definition of the phrase, Georgia Tech “should be in” given their talent level and quality wins in ACC play. But I’m weary given this team’s capabilities of playing down to their opponent. They’re helped strongly by an RPI and SOS in the top 30.

On the bubble: Wake Forest is looking more and more like an NCAA team with a #25 RPI. They also just survived the Duke/UNC road swing with a split while two wins- vs. Maryland in OT and at Gonzaga in December- could loom large as we head towards Selection Sunday. Maryland is still working to boost a lackluster RPI and lack any semblance of a signature win during non-conference play. They must take care of business against NC State and Miami at home before embarking on a Clemson/FSU road swing that should test their mettle. The win at Georgia Tech gave Florida State a nice boost in their first ACC game, but they promptly blew that by falling to NC State at home. The Seminoles only played one NCAA team (two if you include Florida) in non-conference play and was blown out against Ohio State (#117 overall SOS). They need to finish 10-8 in the ACC and gather another signature win over Duke, Clemson, North Carolina or Georgia Tech to feel comfortable. Speaking of the Tar Heels, I’m sure they’ll turn it around once Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller return. Still, at 12-7 (1-3) and an RPI in the 60’s, Roy Williams is starting to feel the heat. Lose at NC State next Wednesday and things could really collapse.

This season has been a headache for Roy Williams

On the fringe: Virginia is the feel-good story in the ACC in Tony Bennett’s first season, but I’d be shocked if the Cavaliers made the tournament. They lost out-of-conference to bottom feeders South Florida, Penn State, Auburn and Stanford and have benefited from a favorable first three games in ACC play. It’s going to take an 10-6 mark in the ACC to dance. Miami (FL) was quickly determined to be a fluke after compiling a lofty record on the back of a non-conference SOS in the 300’s. They were just swept by BC to fall to 1-4 in the ACC and need a gigantic turnaround for Frank Haith to avoid the hot seat.

Big East

Locks: Plenty of locks and elite teams at the top with Syracuse, Villanova, Georgetown, West Virginia and Pittsburgh all feeling comfortable. While the Florida and North Carolina wins during pre-Big East play look less and less impressive for Syracuse, they still boast the #1 RPI in the nation and an abundantly favorable conference slate the rest of the way with only one difficult road contest at Georgetown. I’d be stunned if the Orange are not a #1 seed come March. Villanova has the lone unblemished mark but still has to travel to Georgetown, West Virginia, Pittsburgh and Syracuse. A split should be enough for #1 seed contention. Georgetown picked up a huge victory at Pittsburgh behind Chris Wright this week. They have a chance to make inroads as a #2 seed if they can upset Syracuse and beat Duke at home. Pittsburgh’s incredible sweep of a Syracuse-Cincinnati-Connecticut road swing should prove invaluable in terms of seeding. West Virginia could pick up a nice resume-building win tomorrow with Evan Turner back for Ohio State.

Should be in: Aside from the five locks, there’s not much else to love about the Big East. Connecticut’s resume is strongly boosted by the #1 SOS in the nation. Still, unless Notre Dame makes the tournament, the Huskies still haven’t beaten a team that will be dancing in March. They have a golden opportunity tomorrow in Storrs against temporarily-top ranked Texas. Knocking off Texas would give Connecticut a signature win and move them closer to lock status with two tricky road games ahead against Providence and Louisville.

On the bubble: Speaking of the Cardinals, Rick Pitino’s team is looking more and more like a bubble squad with their loss at Seton Hall on Thursday. Louisville’s non-conference wins are even worse than UConn and the stench from the Charlotte/Western Carolina defeats still linger. Their #48 RPI is bubblicious with a crucial bubble game this Sunday against Cincinnati looming. Cincinnati at 13-6 (4-3) was one of my last teams in the field and the win over South Florida doesn’t change anything.

Samardo Samuels is the key for Louisville to earn a berth

On the fringe: Notre Dame has a stretch ahead where they could enter the field. Aside from a road game at Villanova, six of their next seven are very winnable with DePaul, Cincinnati, South Florida and St. John’s coming to South Bend and road games at Rutgers and Seton Hall. They have a chance here to make a push, although the weak non-conference SOS doesn’t help the cause. I wouldn’t count Seton Hall out, either. They could still get to 10-8 in the Big East which would put them right on the bubble come Big East Tournament time.

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