Thursday, March 18 (all CBS)
12:20pm - Florida vs. BYU
12:25pm - ODU vs. Notre Dame
2:30pm - Murray St vs. Vandy
2:45pm - SHSU vs. Baylor
2:50pm - St. Mary's vs. Richmond
4:45pm - UTEP vs. Butler
7:10pm - UNI vs. UNLV
7:20pm - Wash vs. Marquette
9:35pm - Wake Forest vs. Texas
9:40pm - New Mexico vs. Montana
9:45pm - SDSU vs. Tennessee
Each day this week during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament we’re asking some of our top correspondents to put together a collection of notes and interesting tidbits about each region. If you know of something that we should include in tomorrow’s submission, hit us up at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.
President Barack Obamapicked Kentucky to lose in his bracket’s final game but Coach John Calipari is worried about just getting momentum. “Land the plane. Survive and advance,” Calipari told Chris Low of ESPN. “That’s all we’re thinking about. We’re not worried about the score and who scores and what. Just land the plane and move on.”To that end, East Tennessee State lost by ten to Pitt last year as a #16 seed in the first round. Can they be the first to pull off the historic upset?
Perhaps both Texas and Wake Forest should just throw out their recent struggles.
Temple is only favored by 4 points over Cornell. Meanwhile Lafayette head coach Fran O’Hanlon has worked with both coaches and is rooting for both.
Would professors at Wofford dare to not pick the Terriers over Wisconsin in their office pool? And apparently message boards hounded Badger junior Tim Jarmusz earlier this season as he moved from starting forward to coming off the bench.
Washington’s Isaiah Thomas has a broken bone in his shooting hand, which is why he wears a glove.
Last year Marquette’s players shaved their heads in solidarity, but this time they got a different haircut.
New Mexico’s Darington Hobson is predicting a run to the regional finals. Meanwhile the New York Times has a great profile on Montana’s Anthony Johnson.
We’ve been anxiously awaiting the next thirty days for the last eleven months. You have too. In fact, if this isn’t your favorite time of year by a healthy margin then you should probably click away from this site for a while. Because we plan on waterboarding you with March Madness coverage. Seriously, you’re going to feel like Dick Cheney himself is holding a Spalding-logoed towel over your face. Your intake will be so voluminous that you’ll be drooling Gus Johnson and bracket residue in your sleep. Or Seth Davis, if that’s more your style. The point is that we’re all locked in and ready to go. Are you? To help us all get into the mood, we like to click around a fancy little website called YouTube for a daily dose of notable events, happenings, finishes, ups and downs relating to the next month. We’re going to try to make this video compilation a little smarter, a little edgier, a little historical-er. Or whatever. Sure, you’ll see some old favorites that never lose their luster, but you’ll also see some that maybe you’ve forgotten or never knew to begin with. That’s the hope, at least. We’ll be matching the videos by the appropriate week, so all of this week we re-visited some of the timeless moments from the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Enjoy.
NCAA First and Second Rounds
Dateline: Various
Context: The opening tip of the First Round is less than twelve hours away, and nothing says March Madness excitement more than the epic buzzer beaters that we’ve come to associate with it throughout its modern history. We all know the usual suspects — Bryce Drew and Tyus Edney immediately come to mind — but here are a few of our favorites that may have slipped your mind in the intervening years. Hopefully we’ll have a couple more of these by the end of the weekend!
2000 First Round – Florida vs. Butler – Mike Miller
2003 First Round – Maryland vs. UNC-Wilmington – Drew Nicholas
2006 First Round – Northwestern State vs. Iowa – Jermaine Wallace
2008 First Round: Western Kentucky vs. Drake – Ty Rogers
Welcome to the Real Dance, Bluffers. Arkansas-Pine Bluff 61, Winthrop 44. Well, we’re off to a great start so far this year. With tonight’s convincing win over Winthrop, UAPB becomes the 64th entrant into the bracket, and those who fret about completeness (“I can’t make my picks yet!!”) are able to finally concentrate. For a team that started the season 0-11 as it traveled all over the country taking regular beatings, a win tonight and another roadie to Jacksonville to face Duke on Friday feels like just desserts. Allen Smith had 14/5 and Tavaris Washington contributed 8/13/5 assts as the Golden Lions broke open a close game at the half to slowly pull away in the second. Even though it is only the PiG, this is the first win by a SWAC team in the NCAA Tournament since Southern University pulled the trick as a #15 in 1993.
Allen Smith Moves On to Play Duke (DDN/L. Powell)
Argument for the Play-In-Game. In watching some of this game tonight in front of 8,000+ fans at the UD Arena in Dayton, while switching over to some of the more interesting NIT games tonight, we once again come back to the idea of expansion and how the NCAA might look into integrating ideas into the existing system using something that approximates logic and reason. Obviously, the preferred scenario is no additional expansion, but it’s also the least likely. We’re never going back to a perfectly symmetrical sixty-four team bracket now that we’re at 65, so let’s consider the next best alternative. The Tuesday night PiG is widely mocked among bracketeers around the country, but as you can see by clicking through the link above, people in Dayton attend and enjoy the game. We’ve said for the better part of a decade, though, that having a single game hanging out on a thread like that is weird and feels a little funny — it’s like finding a box of raisins in the paper towels section at the grocery store. We think that the fix for this is to have four play-in games, which means 68 teams would be invited to the NCAA Tournament. Each region would have one PiG, and all four of them would be played in the 7pm and 9pm time slots on Tuesday night, with winners moving on to the Friday games around the country. Dayton could host two games and another great basketball city such as Salt Lake or Memphis could host the other two. Here’s the rub, though. Rather than making the four PiGs a situation where the worst eight teams (#16 seeds) are slotted into them, make it so that the games utilize the unyielding buzz and conversation about the bubble that dominates the entire previous weekend. You achieve this by slotting the last eight at-large teams into these four play-in games. This year, that would have meant the following scenario:
Utah State vs. Mississippi State
UTEP vs. Illinois
Minnesota vs. Arizona State
Florida vs. Virginia Tech
How ridiculously fun would that be to watch on Tuesday night?– no offense to tonight’s competitors, but it’s no contest! Bubble teams, this is the chance for you to make your case against a similarly situated team — it’s win or go home. The UAPBs and Winthrops of the world would already be in the round of 64 (aka the first round) as #16 seed auto-bids. The winner of these four PiGs comprised solely of the eight lowest at-larges could be slotted as #12 or #13 seeds regardless of who wins. Can someone tell us what’s wrong with this idea?
Over the next two days in a series of separate posts, RTC will break down all 32 of the first round games using our best analytical efforts to understand these teams, the matchups and their individual strengths and weaknesses. Our hope is that you’ll let us know in the comments where you agree, disagree or otherwise think we’ve lost our collective minds. Here are the Thursday afternoon games.
Thursday, March 18 (all times ET)
12:20 pm – #7 BYU vs. #10 Florida (Oklahoma City pod)
The NCAA Tournament kicks off in style this year with a good first round game from Oklahoma City. BYU enters the postseason riding the wave of one of its most successful regular seasons in decades, but it won’t matter much if the Cougars can’t slay their old bugaboo of winning a first round game on Thursday afternoon. The last time BYU won an NCAA opener in 1993, Grant Hill’s high fade was in style and the internet was something employees wore in their hair at fast food joints. Eight trips later, BYU has by far its best team and chance to end that losing streak. Jimmer Fredette is the best player casual fans haven’t yet heard of, but his 21/3/5 assts per game and 45% three-point shooting allow for the occasional explosion, as in the cases where he dropped 49 points at Arizona or 45 against TCU just last week in the Mountain West Tournament. The Cougs’ opponent, Florida, limped into the postseason, having lost four of five games and is a questionable entrant (especially as a #10 seed). But the Gators are still dangerous, boasting five players who average double figures with an ability to go off at any time. The most difficult problem Florida will face, though, is how to stop the highly efficient offense that BYU brings to the dusty plains. Dave Rose’s team shoots well from everywhere on the floor, and the Gator defense has been appropriately described as soft throughout the season, so UF will have to get into a high-scoring shootout to have a chance to outscore the Cougars in this one.
The Skinny: it’ll be difficult for Florida’s defense to slow the offensive talents of Fredette and his Cougars so we’re going with BYU by ten in a shootout.
12:25 pm – #6 Notre Dame vs. #11 Old Dominion (New Orleans pod)
Everybody knows about the Irish and their response to what was believed to be a potential season-ending injury to their superstar Luke Harangody. After the injury (and during Harangody’s return), the Irish have rebuilt themselves into a better team. We’re not saying they are a better team without Harangody because that would be ridiculous, but the brand of basketball they play when they don’t dump it down to him and watch him go to work is producing better results. They will have their hands full with the CAA champion (both regular season and tournament) Old Dominion. While the Monarchs ended up losing many of the “resume-building” games they played this year, they were competitive in most of them (5-point loss versus Missouri and 9-point loss atNorthern Iowa) they also managed to win the biggest game on their schedule at #3-seeded Georgetown. So we know they can hang with a Big East team. Now the question is whether senior Gerald Lee can put it together to lead Blaine Taylor’s squad to an upset in the first game of the NCAA Tournament. It says here that they can, but the Irish are playing so well that they won’t.
The Skinny: Notre Dame gets enough production from each of its key scorers and is able to clamp down late on Lee and company to eke out a six-point victory.
This is the third of our four quick-and-dirty region breakdowns. This will serve to help the quick triggers who like to fill out their brackets first thing on Monday morning. For the rest of you, we’ll be providing more detailed game-by-game analysis throughout the rest of the week.
Energy Solutions Arena Hosts the West Regional
Region: West
Favorite: Syracuse, #1 seed, 29-4. Jim Boeheim’s Syracuse Orange is the favorite in this region by a good margin. His team has lost their last two games and there are whispers that center Arinze Onuaku may not be available for the first two rounds, but SU is talented enough to survive the first weekend without him (as a comparison, UNC didn’t have Ty Lawson at full strength for the first weekend last year). K-State is realistically the only team in this region capable of standing toe-to-toe with Syracuse in terms of relative talent, but they play too loosey-goosey to actually beat the Orange.
Should They Falter: Kansas State, #2 seed, 26-7. Should Syracuse get upset, K-State is in position to take advantage. With a dynamite backcourt of Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen capable of going off in bunches, the Wildcats could make a run to their first Final Four since the mid-60s. The quality of talent in this region just isn’t very deep, so outside of Syracuse or K-State, who else could realistically win the requisite four games?
Grossly Overseeded: Vanderbilt, #4 seed, 24-8. A team that lost to Western Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina and Mississippi State, none of whom are Tourney teams, should not have gotten a protected seed with only a couple of marquee wins this year.
Grossly Underseeded:UTEP, #12 seed, 26-6. The Miners really didn’t start rolling until they integrated Derrick Caracter into the lineup, but they’ve been fantastic since then. At worst, this team should have been in the #8-#10 range. Instead, they’ll get an opportunity to prove themselves against the annual public darling #5 Butler, where Vegas has UTEP as only a 2.5-point underdog.
Sweet Sixteen Sleeper (#12 seed or lower): UTEP. For the same reasons as above, once UTEP beats Butler, they will also be able to get past #4 Vanderbilt who is probably overseeded, or #13 Murray State, a team they’re simply better than.
Final Four Sleeper (#4 seed or lower): BYU, #7 seed, 29-5. This is an easy one. Everyone knows that BYU is murder to play at home, and if the Cougars can get past their first two opponents (Florida and K-State), then they will have as partisan a home crowd as possible in Salt Lake City to play two eastern teams, either Pitt or Xavier and Syracuse. The problem for BYU will be getting there. They’ve had NCAA first round problems for the better part of two decades, and even though they’re much better than their initial opponent Florida, they’ll need to play really well to beat Kansas State.
Last Four In: California, Utah State, Minnesota, Illinois
Last Four Out: Mississippi State, Florida, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall
Bids per conference: Big East (8), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (6), ACC (6), Mountain West (4), SEC (3), Atlantic 10 (3), Pac-10 (2), West Coast (2), WAC (2), C-USA (2).
From today until Selection Sunday, keep checking Rush the Court for updates on who’s in, who’s out and seeding.
UPDATES ALL DAY TODAY. FINAL BRACKET REVEALED JUST BEFORE 6 PM ET.
(Note: each of the four teams in one seed grouping is listed in pecking order in terms of who is closer to moving up a seed line. This is used to determine game location and matchups similar to Joe Lunardi’s S-Curve listing).
#13 Seeds: Murray State, New Mexico State, Oakland, Houston
#14 Seeds: Wofford, Sam Houston State, Ohio, Montana
#15 Seeds: Morgan State, UC-Santa Barbara, North Texas, Vermont
#16 Seeds: Robert Morris, East Tennessee State, Lehigh, Winthrop, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Last Four In: California, Utah State, Minnesota, Illinois
Last Four Out: Mississippi State, Florida, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall
Bids per conference: Big East (8), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (6), ACC (5), Mountain West (4), SEC (3), Atlantic 10 (3), Pac-10 (2), West Coast (2), WAC (2), C-USA (2).
Coming into conference tournament week there had been a lot of talk coming from the college basketball media that this might be the weakest bubble ever. We are loath to admit it, but they might just be right.
Ticket Punched. Lost in all the mess of the BCS conference also-rans blowing their chances every night is that one team actually earned a NCAA Tournament bid in the last .
Lehigh 74, Lafayette 59. For the 16th time in 20 years, the Patriot League will send its regular season champ to the NCAA Tournament after that same team also won the post-season tournament. In a game that was closer than the final score indicates (Lehigh led by 6 with less than 3 minutes to go), the Mountain Hawks (22-10) earned their 4th trip overall to the NCAA Tournament and first since 2004 behind a strong performance from senior Zahir Carrington’s huge game with 18 points (on 9/11 FG), 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, and 4 blocks while their star freshman C.J. McCollum added 20 points and 7 rebounds. The game between schools just 17 miles apart was the 213th meeting between the schools, but the first time that they played with a NCAA Tournament bid on the line. We would normally rip a player who comes up with something as trite as Carrington’s post-game quote, “No offense to those guys, but they just didn’t want it as bad as we did,” unless they played UConn in this year’s Big East Tournament, but we’ll give him a pass today because of how well he played. What’s next for the Mountain Hawks? Most likely a #16 seed assuming The Committee decides to throw them in the game that shall not be named.
Bubble Burst? Where do we begin? Plenty of teams that would be perilously close to the bubble in a normal year lost games that we would usually call fatal, but that might not matter this year. Yes, Virginia Tech, Florida, and Wake Forest, I am talking about you. This year you will probably get away with it. Memphis, UAB, Arizona State, Rhode Island, Mississippi, Mississippi State, and Seton Hall? You probably will not be so lucky. On the plus side there is a small chance that CBS or ESPN might get a camera on Bobby Gonzalez when the Pirates are not selected. [Ed. Note: If you aren't familiar with Gonzalez's body of work, check out what The NY Times wrote about him recently during his time at Manhattan and at Seton Hall.] If you’re wondering if we left somebody out, you’re right. We’re saving that elimination for its own special section.
Dumbest Play of the Year. Last year we had Jamelle Horne. This year’s recipient may not have made as egregious of an error, but his will ultimately be more costly. Allow me to introduce you to Dayton senior guard Rob Lowery. With his team fighting for its NCAA Tournament life and the game winding down, the Flyers trailed Xavier by 2 points with 33.6 seconds left when Lowery called timeout to set up a potential game-tying play. On his way to the bench, Terrell Holloway slapped at the ball which was still in Lowery’s hands. Lowery responded by swinging/slapping at Holloway and was given a technical. The Musketeers hit their free throws which essentially iced the game and now the Flyers and the uber-hyped Chris Wright will be making plans for a trip to the NIT.
It’s worth noting that while Brian Gregory continued to state that he did not see the play in the post-game press conference and continued to insinuate it was a questionable call one notable player was not made available to the media: Lowery.
Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist. He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next two months days.
Does anyone want an NCAA seed? Just in the last two days, Memphis lost to Houston, UAB lost to Southern Mississippi, Seton Hall lost to Notre Dame and Arizona State lost to Stanford with tournament berths on the line. These losses have opened up a spot for Mississippi to sneak into the field despite an underwhelming profile. If the Rebels can top Tennessee in the SEC quarterfinals Friday, they should be dancing. The way bubble teams have been performing thus far, I wouldn’t count on it.
The only higher seed to advance in the Big East Tournament on Thursday was West Virginia courtesy of Da’Sean Butler’s bank three-pointer at the buzzer. If the Mountaineers can win the tournament, they have a fighting chance to surpass Duke as the final #1 seed. Even with Syracuse losing two in a row, they’re still safe. West Virginia can pick up two RPI top-50 wins and take the BET crown, which would put them neck-in-neck with Duke depending on their results in Greensboro.
There are currently 13 teams remaining on the bubble and some have a chance to clinch their bids Friday. Georgia Tech beating Maryland would lock up a spot. San Diego State beating New Mexico would put them very close to a lock. Florida beating Mississippi State wouldn’t put them in 100%, but it would eliminate the Bulldogs from contention. Washington downing Stanford to reach the Pac-10 Finals would increase their likelihood of earning a bid tremendously. Aforementioned Ole Miss also needs their game today to avoid elimination. Illinois is in with a win over Wisconsin. Dayton (Xavier) and Rhode Island (St. Louis) are playing elimination games, too.
I’ll have a new bracket up Saturday and Sunday morning, then a final bracket just before the Selection Show. Stay tuned to RTC for constant seed updates all day this weekend.
On The Bubble: Georgia Tech, Florida
Last Four In: Mississippi, Washington, Illinois, San Diego State
Last Four Out: Seton Hall, Memphis, Rhode Island, Arizona State
Still Alive: Dayton, Mississippi State, Minnesota
Bids per conference: Big East (8), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (5), SEC (5), Mountain West (4), Atlantic 10 (3), Pac-10 (2), West Coast (2).
Folks, if there was ever a day in our history where we actually fit the word ubiquitous in our little slogan at the top of the screen there, today is that day (ok, maybe tomorrow and Saturday too). Nevertheless, we will be providing coast to coast coverage at no fewer than six of the major conference tournaments today and throughout the weekend — ACC, Big East, Big 12, Pac-10, Conference USA and the WAC (tomorrow we’ll add the Mountain West to our slate) . We’ll be reporting from each venue with RTC Live (see RTC Live box above left), but we’ll also provide nightly diaries from our correspondents on site as well. Whether in the comments, the live-blogs or lurking, we hope to have you stop by throughout the weekend.
From the that-didn’t-take-very-long department, Jeff Goodman reported last night that Iowa State’s Craig Brackins is expected to announce his intention to go pro within the next few days. Iowa State’s season probably ended in an 82-75 loss to Texas in the Big 12 Tournament first round yesterday evening. Brackins’ teammate, Marquis Gilstrap, had applied for a sixth year of eligibility, but the NCAA denied his request and he too has finished his career as a Cyclone.
The SEC Tournament begins today, and the league may re-visit how it seeds its teams as soon as next year given that schools such as East #3 Tennessee and #4 Florida went 12-0 against the SEC West this season but still did not earn a bye into the quarterfinals. If you include the two SEC East teams who received byes — Kentucky and Vanderbilt — these four teams went an incredible 24-0 against the western half of the conference. Re-seeding teams #1-#12 would reward the four best teams in the league rather than the two best in each division.
In case you missed it elsewhere, we have the potential for one of the greatest feel-good stories in NCAA Tournament history this coming weekend at Montana if Anthony Johnson’s wife, Shaunte Nance-Johnson, can help her team (the Lady Grizzlies) make it to the NCAAs in much the same way her husband did last night (a ridiculous 42-point shooting exhibition). Even if she doesn’t put the team on her back — she is a reserve, after all — the fact that she was the one who resurrected AJ’s career a few years ago when he was out of basketball completely is cause for celebration. We don’t know for a fact that a husband/wife pair have never played in the NCAA Tournament at the same time, but the odds of it are minuscule and we’d absolutely love to see it happen for both of them. Sorry, Sacramento State/Montana State, no offense intended, but we here at RTC (America?) will be rooting for Montana on Friday to move into the Big Sky Championship game and beyond.
Paul Jordan of Wildcat Blue Blog is the RTC correspondent for the Southeastern Conference. The SEC Tournament begins Thursday at Noon ET.
EAST
Kentucky 29-2 (14-2)
Vanderbilt 23-7 (12-4)
Tennessee 23-7 (11-5)
Florida 20-11 (9-7)
South Carolina 15-15 (6-10)
Georgia 13-16 (5-11)
WEST
Mississippi State 21-10 (9-7)
Mississippi 21-9 (9-7)
Arkansas 14-17 (7-9)
Alabama 16-14 (6-10)
Auburn 15-15 (6-10)
LSU 11-19 (2-14)
Despite all the hype and hoopla over the SEC being a much improved conference this season, at this time the SEC still has as many teams locked into the NCAA Tournament as they did last year — three. Kentucky finished up the regular season with their 44th SEC regular season championship and the number two ranking in both the AP and the ESPN/USA Today Top 25. Tennessee finished #13 in the ESPN/USA Today poll and #15 in the AP top 25. The Vanderbilt Commodores finished the season ranked #20 in the AP Top 25 and #23 in the ESPN/USA Today poll. Other than these three teams, no other SEC school even received votes in either poll so you would figure that if any other teams are to go dancing, they need to get some wins in the upcoming SEC Tournament.
Now that the regular season is over, I am pleased to present my first and second team ALL-SEC roster, as well as my choice for Player of the Year and Coach of the Year:
We love this bracket science stuff, which is reminiscent of some of the work we did when this site was in its infancy nearly three years ago. It’s good to see Peter Tiernan continuing to do this every year, now for CBS Sportsline. Maybe the NCAA Selection Committee should bring him on board. Here’s a taste: best team against seed expectation in the last decade? Florida. Worst? Wake Forest. Sounds about right.
If you’re lucky enough to live in an area with a select movie theater chosen by the NCAA overlords, the Final Four will be shown in living, breathing 3-D. Because nothing says March Madness like seeing Sherron Collins barreling down the court at you at 100 miles an hour. We have no idea if this will be incredibly awesome or incredibly lame, but we’ll make sure to send someone out there to check it out.
Speaking of all three dimensions, here’s Seth Davis’ 2010 All-Glue team. The headliner is Ohio State’s David Lighty, but we also love the Willie Veasley (Butler) and Rick Jackson (Syracuse) picks.
More conference awards today. POY – ACC: Greivis Vasquez, Maryland; Big East: Wes Johnson, Syracuse; SEC: John Wall, Kentucky. COY – ACC: Gary Williams, Maryland; Big East: Jim Boeheim, Syracuse; SEC: Kevin Stallings, Vanderbilt. FrOY:ACC: Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech; Big East: Lance Stephenson, Cincinnati; SEC: DeMarcus Cousins, Kentucky. Some weird goings-on in the SEC there. First, how does John Wall win POY but not FrOY? Isn’t he a freshman, and isn’t he the best player in the league according to the voters? Second, how does Kevin Stallings win COY — DeMarcus Cousins was so shocked he didn’t even know who Stallings was!
As part of our ongoing quest to provide you with the best college basketball coverage in the nation, we have enlisted the help of some of the finest team-specific bloggers, campus newspaper scribes, and beat writers on the planet to help us. With the NCAA Selection Show coming up on March 14th there are still several teams on the proverbial “bubble.” We figured it might be interesting to see what kind of nonpartisan arguments these folks could make for their team deserving a spot in the NCAA Tournament. We welcome any discussion of their arguments and praise or criticism of their reasoning in the comment section. If your team is on the bubble and you would like to submit something, please contact us at rushthecourt@gmail.com.
TrueCubbie of the Florida State blog Tomahawk Nation now makes the case for the Florida State Seminoles:
Having narrowly avoided disaster against the Miami Hurricanes on Sunday, Florida State will finish third in the Atlantic Coast Conference. That fact alone should equate to an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. However, with the attention that is being paid to the Big East this year and the rise of many mid-major teams, further inspection into the Seminoles’ tournament resume is required.
The Seminoles sit at 22-8 with a 10-6 conference record. They rank 17th overall in the Pomeroy Rankings, with the number one defensive efficiency in the country. At Tomahawk Nation, we are strong believers in the Pomeroy system. The Seminoles’ RPI ranking is 38 and they have the 49th most difficult strength of schedule. They have been ranked in both the AP Poll and Coaches’ Poll.
Barring an outbreak of insanity, the Seminoles should be in. (AP/PM Ebenhack)
The Seminoles finished their out-of-conference schedule with only two hiccups: road losses to Ohio State and Florida. The significant wins in the out-of-conference schedule include winning the Old Spice Classic with wins over Alabama and Marquette. Those wins weren’t pretty, but the Seminoles got the job done. The Old Spice Classic included the likes of Michigan, Xavier and Baylor in addition to Florida State and the opponents listed above. Chris Singleton, Florida State’s small forward, was the tournament MVP. The losses to Florida and Ohio State were two of Florida State’s worst shooting nights on the season. Given the success of Ohio State and Florida’s relative success, the losses don’t appear so bad for the Seminoles. Unfortunately, those games were nationally televised and didn’t give the casual fan the best impression of the Seminoles.
***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game
Florida @ #3 Kentucky – 12:00 pm on CBS (***)
It's Patterson's (Likely) Swan Song Against the Gators (G'ville Sun/D. Finger)
Despite recent struggles, Florida is still a tournament team and Kentucky is still a #1 seed. However, if Florida loses this game and has an early exit in the SEC Tournament, they will likely be off the bubble. The Gators have been streaky all year, recording four different runs of at least two losses (including their current slide against Georgia and Vanderbilt). Their chances against the Wildcats don’t look great, as UF ranks #49 and #56 in offensive and defensive efficiency. The Wildcats rank in the top twenty in both categories, and have both the speed and size to shut down Florida’s offensive weapons. The Gators have four players who average over 10 points per game, but Chandler Parsons scored just three points in his last game, and Alex Tyus has not scored in double figures in his last four. When these teams met in Gainesville, the Gators had a lead in the closing minutes but a scoreless period near the end of the game sealed their fate. UK was not impressive in that contest, but look for the Gators to get Kentucky’s best effort in Patrick Patterson’s (and presumably John Wall’s and DeMarcus Cousins’) final home game.
#15 Wisconsin @ Illinois – 2:00 pm on ESPN (***)
The Illini are another team who appear to be playing themselves out of the tournament. Although this was the same team that was in contention for the Big Ten title after they upset Wisconsin a few weeks ago, the Illini then lost four of their next five games. They are still in fifth place in the conference, but an 8-5 record outside the Big Ten may be what keeps them out of the big dance. Wisconsin has won three straight games and has rebounded since a loss to Minnesota in Jon Leuer’s first game back from an injury. Leuer was not playing the last time these teams met, and a much inferior Tim Jarmusz was playing in his absence. Jarmusz shoots below 32% from the field, and now that their star forward is back, they have not had to rely on him. The Illini don’t rank in the top 40 in either of Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency ratings, while the Badgers rank fourth overall. They Badgers are the best team in America in turnovers per game, and with Jarmusz out of the mix for UW, they should avenge their loss to Illinois.
RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every week until Madness ensues.
Only 11 days until the brackets are revealed. This calls for another bubble update. Here are the teams joining the esteemed lock category this week:
Clemson- The Tigers avoided a late-season collapse and secured a bid last night with their win over Georgia Tech. The Sunday night road win at Florida State was also of great importance. Clemson now has five wins vs. the RPI top-50 and guaranteed themselves an above .500 record in the ACC.
Marquette- The Golden Eagles finally didn’t play a nail-biter last night, instead blowing out Louisville in exclamatory fashion. Marquette is now 11-6 in the Big East with a home game vs. Notre Dame remaining. The committee won’t deny an 11-win Big East team.
California- I have a hard time seeing the committee leaving a regular season champion of a Power 6 conference out of the NCAA Tournament. The Pac-10 will be a two-bid league if anyone else wins the conference tournament next week.
Northern Iowa- The RPI remains very high (20) and the Panthers dominated the Missouri Valley from start to finish. Even with an early loss in St. Louis, they won’t fall enough to lose out on a bid.
Atlantic 10
Locks: Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Rhode Island (35 RPI, 67 SOS)- The Rams have lost four of five at the least opportune time and now face the realistic possibility of another February collapse to the NIT. The loss on Saturday at St. Bonaventure was an absolute killer. Rhode Island features just two wins vs. the RPI top-50 and their best non-conference win came in a virtual home game with Oklahoma State. They face a must-win scenario tonight at home against Charlotte in a virtual elimination game. With the bubble only shrinking in the coming days, this is a make-or-break game for the Rams unless they win the A-10 Tournament.
Dayton (41 RPI, 37 SOS)- The Flyers did defeat Georgia Tech, Old Dominion and Xavier this season, but close losses at the hands of New Mexico, Duquesne, Rhode Island and St. Louis are really hurting their chances. Dayton has now dropped out of a large majority of projected brackets and faces a daunting task tonight at Richmond. If they’re able to overcome their road woes and take down the Spiders, Dayton would be a candidate to re-claim a bid. If not, they’ll need to win a handful of games in Atlantic City next week. The Flyers are just 5-8 vs. the RPI top-100.
Charlotte (62 RPI, 111 SOS)- Despite the 9-5 conference mark, the 49ers resume is looking weaker and weaker by the day. They were blown out by Duke, Old Dominion and Tennessee in non-conference play and have recently lost four of five, including Duquesne at home and at George Washington. The computer numbers are also tanking. The opportunity is present, though, to creep back. Charlotte’s final two games are at Rhode Island and home vs. Richmond. At the very worst, they need to split those two games and make the A-10 Tournament finals with just four wins vs. the RPI top-100.
ACC
Locks: Duke, Maryland, Clemson
Wake Forest (29 RPI, 34 SOS)- The Deacons looked to be safe just a mere ten days ago, but two stunning defeats at the hands of ACC bottom-feeders NC State and North Carolina are reminding Wake fans of their teams’ stunning collapse last season. Don’t fret too much: Wake has a handful of quality wins- at Gonzaga, Richmond, Xavier, Maryland, Georgia Tech- and a respectable RPI/SOS. All the Deacons have to do is win more game and they’re in, whether it comes at Florida State tonight, home vs. Clemson on Sunday night or in the first round of the ACC Tournament.
Georgia Tech (33 RPI, 22 SOS)- The RPI/SOS and four wins vs. the RPI top-50 are nice, but there’s certainly holes in the Jackets portfolio. Their best non-conference wins came over USC and Charlotte and the yo-yo ACC season continued last night with a blowout loss at Clemson, dropping Georgia Tech back under .500 in the ACC. Paul Hewitt won’t have to sweat out Selection Sunday if they just take care of business Saturday at home against fellow bubble squad Virginia Tech. 8-8 in the ACC with wins over Duke, Clemson and Wake Forest should be enough for a bid, even if a double-digit seed is likely.
Florida State (42 RPI, 49 SOS)- If one looks closer at the Seminoles overall portfolio, it’s glaringly unimpressive. They have two wins vs. the RPI top-50- a sweep of Georgia Tech. They have one quality non-conference win on a neutral floor against Marquette. Luckily for Leonard Hamilton, Florida State did win the majority of games they were supposed to and also knocked off fellow ACC bubble team Virginia Tech in Tallahassee. The last two games- Wake Forest and at Miami- also lean towards the favorable side. The ‘Noles should probably win both to feel safe, but even am 9-7 ACC mark might be enough as long as they are not upset in the opening round of the ACC Tournament.
FSU faces Wake tonight in one of many big games
Virginia Tech (52 RPI, 157 SOS)- The Hokies have lost three in a row in late February to put themselves in a precarious position. The defeats at Duke and in double-OT to Maryland are excusable, but the 20-point blowout at Boston College is one the committee won’t overlook. We’ve beaten the horrid non-conference schedule to death, a factor that will prove as an anchor to their resume on Selection Sunday. Virginia Tech needs to win twice to make absolutely sure of a spot in the field. It starts tonight with NC State in Blacksburg. Win that and split their final two games- at Georgia Tech and ACC Tournament first round- and Seth Greenberg can breathe a sigh of relief.
Feeling Title-y. There were three conference championships won tonight around the nation, and you can count the number of people on one hand who had these three picks back in November.
#7 Ohio State 73, Illinois 57. Evan Turner put in his usual work (16/12/5 assts) for the Buckeyes and Jon Diebler rained seven threes as OSU pulled away in the second half to win at least a share of the Big 10 regular season title. Both Purdue and Michigan State will need to win both of their remaining games this week to tie the Buckeyes at the top of the standings, but regardless, OSU will be the top seed in next week’s Big 10 Tournament. If you’re looking for a darkhorse Final Four candidate, look no further than this Buckeye team with NPOY Turner leading the charge. We heard that they RTC’d tonight in Columbus to celebrate the championship, but we’ve yet to have visual confirmation of this.
Who Had OSU as Big Ten Champs in November? (AP/T. Gilliam)
#1 Syracuse 85, St. John’s 66. Newly-minted #1 Syracuse put five players into double figures in an easy win that captured the Big East regular season title outright tonight. The Orange were led by Arinze Onuaku’s 21/8 as the senior played in front of his mother for the first time in his career. SU will now travel to Louisville for a Saturday matchup against one of the two teams that has beaten them this year, while the presumably-motivated Cards will be playing for their postseason lives as they simultaneously close down Freedom Hall. Will Jim Boeheim’s kids have the focus needed to overcome the expected Cardinal surge with their top seed in the Big East Tournament already sewn up?
#21 UTEP 80, Marshall 76. The Miners clinched the CUSA regular season title with a strong second half showing led by star Randy Culpepper, who poured in 22 of his 31 points after the break. UTEP has now won thirteen in a row and they’re doing it with great defense and balanced scoring from the aforementioned Culpepper and big men Derrick Caracter (14/9 on the year) and Arnett Moultrie (10/7 on the year). Marshall’s Hassan Whiteside threw up another ridiculous line (20/14/6 blks), but it wasn’t enough for the Herd, who now drop to 10-5 in the conference. UTEP is ranked #50 in the RPI, but you’d have to believe a strong showing in next week’s CUSA Tourney will get them in.
Teams That Helped Themselves. There were a lot more teams that seemed more interested in hurting themselves than helping themselves this evening.
Clemson. The Tigers guaranteed themselves a winning ACC record with tonight’s win over Georgia Tech, in so doing also likely cemented a spot in the NCAA Tournament. With a win on Saturday at Wake Forest, Clemson will also earn a first-round bye into the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament next week.
Marquette. The Golden Eagles were already in the NCAA Tournament, but their win tonight solidifies things and also gives MU a shot at the prestigious double-bye in the Big East Tourney next week. Now at 11-6 in conference, they need Pitt to lose twice this week, but at worst with this win Marquette will end up with the #5 seed.
Missouri. Mizzou played with fire in allowing its game with Iowa State to go into overtime, but Zaire Taylor’s driving two at the buzzer gave them the escape they needed to make a claim on third place in the Big 12 standings. Taylor essentially won the game for the Tigers, with three clutch shots in key situations. They’ll have an opportunity to make some noise on Saturday when they host Kansas in Columbia.
Even though ESPN likes to hype up its Bracketbuster day, the fact is that the last few weeks of the season act like an elimination tournament with teams moving in and out of the NCAA Tournament, while other teams move up and down on a daily basis. While each and every game could theoretically have an impact on the Bubble and NCAA seeding, there are a few games that matter more than the others which we will feature over the next two weeks leading up to the conference tournaments. We will feature these in two posts per week. The first will be a post released on Sunday night for games from Monday through Thursday, and the second will be a post released on Thursday night for games from Friday through Sunday.
Tenth Georgia Tech at Clemson on Raycom/ESPN Full Court at 8 PM on Tuesday – This game is important not just for NCAA seeding, but also for ACC seeding. Both teams are currently occupying a position in the ACC standings where they could easily rank anywhere from 3rd in the conference all the way down to 7th in the conference. That conference rank could be the difference between having to play Duke or having to play UNC (ok, I’ll admit that was a cheap shot Tar Heel fans) early in the ACC Tournament. As you would expect from fairly similar teams, they both sit in the middle of most brackets. I could see either one going as high as a 6-seed or as low as a 9-seed when Selection Sunday roles around and these head-to-head match-ups will play a huge role in where they fit in the bracket.
Ninth Memphis at UAB on Comcast Sports South at 9 PM on Wednesday – It still seems incredible after all these years of John Calipari’s teams dominating Conference USA that the Tigers are no longer dominating CUSA any more. In fact, these two Conference USA teams will be playing for more than the #2 seed in the CUSA Tournament (UTEP is in the driver’s seat for the #1 seed) when they meet in Birmingham. They might be playing for an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament as well. Most bracketologists have the Blazers as one of their last teams in while the Tigers are one of the last teams out. A win by Josh Pastner’s squad could cause the teams to flip positions into and out of the bracket overnight. Normally I might make this game even higher, but I’m not buying the UTEP Kool-Aid and the loser could still get in with either a win in the conference tournament over the other or could potentially win the CUSA Tournament outright.
Eighth Oklahoma State at #24 Texas A&M on ESPN at 9 PM on Wednesday – Both teams are coming off huge home wins. Now the question is whether they can sustain the momentum. The Cowboys will need to show they can win away from the land of perpetual T. Boone Pickens money and the Aggies will need to show they can win against a team that isn’t collapsing. Both teams are currently in a group of five Big 12 teams with in-conference records of either 8-6 or 9-5. A win here or there could mean the difference between finishing 3rd in the conference or finishing 7th in the conference and even though OSU has a win over KU everybody in the Big 12 (and the country) wants to avoid the Jayhawks for as long as possible in any tournament (Big 12 or NCAA). Right now both teams are in the 6-8 seed range, but a hot or cold streak to finish the season could mean anywhere from a 5-seed to a 10-seed for these two teams.
Seventh #19 Vanderbilt at Florida on ESPN at 7 PM on Tuesday – The Gators are coming off a tough two-point loss at Georgia, but their prior three-game winning streak has assured them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Now they are entering a two-game stretch (home versus Vanderbilt then at Kentucky) where it might appear that they can only help their NCAA seed and a win could boost them 2-3 spots, but if they lose these two and their opener in the SEC Tournament a four-game losing streak might be enough to take them to the NIT for the third straight year. As for the Commodores, they have a treacherous two-game finish in Gainesville then at home against Devan Downey and company. They are currently chasing a #3 or #4 seed, but a loss in either of those games could cripple their chances at getting a top-4 seed (barring an upset victory over Kentucky in the SEC Tournament). Technically they still have a chance of winning the SEC regular season title (if they win out and the Wildcats finish on a 3-game losing streak), but we don’t see that happening.
Can Chandler Parsons and his Gators shoot their way into the field?
Sixth #9 Villanova at Cincinnati on ESPN2 at 7 PM on Tuesday – The question here is how these teams respond to difficult loses on Saturday. Villanova’s loss was more visible and watched (by just about everyone in upstate New York–aka everything outside of NYC), but the Bearcats suffered a difficult loss in Morgantown where they blew a 2nd half lead before falling just short. The Wildcats loss likely will keep them out of a #1 seed, but the Bearcats loss might be enough to keep them out the NCAA Tournament altogether. A win here for Villanova would be big to ensure that they stay on the 2-seed line while Cincinnati needs a win here and probably at Georgetown along with 1 or 2 wins in the Big East Tournament to punch their ticket to the Big Dance.
Now it’s getting serious. College basketball teams across the country now fall into one of four camps: bored, because they know their NCAA bid is secure; resigned, because they’ve known for a long time that they’re out; relieved, because they think they’ve played their way in; and downright antsy, because they’ve still got work to do. That last group are the most interesting ones at this time of year, and there are plenty of them out there. We’ll be keeping an eye on all of those games and, of course, commenting on any game we can find on the tube in today’s three-man weave version of BGTD. We hope to hear from you while we’re at it. Here are the games on which we’ll definitely be keeping tabs, though we’ll probably find more throughout the day:
12 PM – Notre Dame @ #13 Georgetown on CBS (regional) – RTC Live
12 PM – #2 Kentucky @ #17 Tennessee on CBS (regional)
12 PM – Michigan @ #9 Ohio State on ESPN
12 PM – Northeastern @ George Mason on ESPN2
2 PM – North Carolina @ Wake Forest on CBS
2 PM – #21 Texas @ #23 Texas A&M on ESPN
2 PM – Mississippi @ Arkansas on ESPN2
4 PM – #1 Kansas @ Oklahoma State on CBS
4 PM – Florida @ Georgia on SEC Network
6 PM – Mississippi State @ South Carolina on ESPN
8 PM – Illinois State @ #22 Northern Iowa on ESPN2
8 PM – Missouri @ #6 Kansas State on ESPN-U
8 PM – Southern Miss @ Memphis on CBS College Sports
9 PM – #8 Villanova @ #4 Syracuse on ESPN
We will start with our coverage at 11 AM. Feel free to drop by throughout the day and ask questions/comment on anything that is happening in the world of college basketball.
11:05: Well it certainly is very orange in Syracuse. And Bob Knight with the first shot of the day mocking fans who would pay $750 to watch this game. Nice. Evan Turner just signed a “Evan Turner” home-made trophy being held by some kid wearing a home-made “Villain” t-shirt.
11:06: Knight just admitted he is rooting for Steve Alford and New Mexico tonight. Not a surprise, but still amusing. I’m sure the BYU players will have something to say to the media after the game.
11:10: We would love to interview the fan who sits in that seat or the row of seats that Erin Andrews just featured. The almost looks like Final Four type seating or what we saw earlier this year for the game at the new Cowboys stadium.
11:17: Hubert Davis calling out the Mountain West and BYU. Can we get Shawn Bradley on the phone to mock UNC? Jay Bilas comes to BYU’s defense by comparing them to and crushing Virginia Tech. He’s not going to be a popular guy the next time he visits Blacksburg. Digger makes the best point of the entire discussion by saying that the reason we are talking up the mid-majors is because the PAC-10 is awful this year.
11:20: “This is the weakest at-large field ever. The weakest at-large field ever.” – Jay Bilas. He should be fun on Selection Sunday.
11:21: Does Digger have a yellow highlighter today? Is this the first time he has went with the traditional yellow for his highlighter?
11:35: Nice feature about Hank Gathers. I still remember hearing about it the day it happened on SportsCenter the night it happened. Still jarring to see the video. Nice shout-out to RTC fan Jeff Fryer. It’s too bad they ran into the buzzsaw that was the 1990 UNLV team. I’m definitely looking forward to seeing that “30 for 30″ documentary.
11:45: I love seeing the replay of the Scottie Reynolds shot. Not because I root for Villanova, but because it is the craziest basketball moment I have ever seen in person. Just the ecstasy of the Villanova fans that followed their utter despair after they had almost blown the game moments before.
As the season winds closer to a conclusion and Selection Sunday approaches, a bracket snapshot each Monday just doesn’t quite seem adequate. From now until the end of the year, we’ll be providing a Friday seed update that outlines where each team inside and just outside the field of 65 currently stands along with reasoning why certain teams changed seed number since the previous Monday.
(Note: each of the four teams in one seed grouping is listed in pecking order in terms of who is closer to moving up a seed line. This is used to determine game location and matchups similar to Joe Lunardi’s S-Curve listing. Auto bids marked in italics).
#1 Seeds: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Purdue
#2 Seeds:Duke, Kansas State, Villanova, West Virginia
#3 Seeds: Georgetown, New Mexico, Ohio State, Pittsburgh
#4 Seeds: Vanderbilt, BYU, Temple, Wisconsin
#5 Seeds: Michigan State, Gonzaga, Butler, Baylor
#6 Seeds: Texas, Xavier, Texas A&M, Tennessee
#7 Seeds: Wake Forest, Richmond, Maryland, Northern Iowa
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2010 ncaa tournament | Tagged: adam koch, anthony johnson, arnett moultrie, barack obama, ben jacobsen, bj jenkins, butler, byu, cornell, darington hobson, dashonte riley, derrick caracter, etsu, florida, florida st, fran o'hanlon, georgetown, georgia tech, gonzaga, greg kampe, greg monroe, isaiah thomas, jim boeheim, jimmer fredette, john calipari, kenny boynton, kentucky, lon kruger, matt howard, mike anderson, missouri, montana, morgan st, murray st, ncaa tournament, new mexico, northern iowa, oakland, oklahoma st, pittsburgh, san diego st, syracuse, temple, texas, Tim Jarmusz, unlv, utep, wake forest, washington, west virginia, wisconsin, wofford | 
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