Sunday, March 21 (all CBS)
12:10pm - Syracuse vs. Gonzaga
2:20pm - Ohio State vs Georgia Tech
2:30pm - Maryland vs Michigan State
2:40pm - West Virginia vs Missouri
2:50pm - Wisconsin vs Cornell
4:50pm - Pittsburgh vs Xavier
5:00pm - Purdue vs Texas A&M
5:15pm - Duke vs California
Now it’s a party. The first round is done. The next 48 hours of games will define which big-time teams can handle the pressure cooker that is the Big Dance, and it will identify the Cinderellas we’ll be talking about for years. If you’re a double-digit seed, winning one game is nice, but you don’t receive your wicked stepsisters, pumpkin coach, and glass slipper until you at least reach the Sweet 16. Oh, you’re a big-conference bigwig? Then the next round is still probably less than what was expected of you. People don’t remember Second Rounders. They remember teams that make the Sweet 16 and beyond. The first round was fun. But it’s over. Here are the teams vying for the Sweet 16 on Saturday:
#2 Villanova vs #10 St. Mary’s
#5 Butler vs #13 Murray State
#6 Tennessee vs #14 Ohio
#1 Kansas vs #9 Northern Iowa
#3 Baylor vs #11 Old Dominion
#3 New Mexico vs #11 Washington
#2 Kansas State vs #7 Brigham Young
#1 Kentucky vs #9 Wake Forest
We’ll be here all day, watching the games with you. We hope you’ll join us, and we definitely look forward to seeing you in the comments section as we all climb in to ride this rollercoaster for the third time. See you right here about fifteen minutes before the first tip!
12:55: Here we go! For the Sweet 16, gentlemen…let’s play! Some interesting matchups throughout the day. Looking especially forward to Baylor vs ODU and KSU vs BYU. To me those look like the more intriguing games.
1:05: St. Mary’s off to a quick start! The inside battle between Omar Samhan and Mouphtaou Yarou and/or Maurice Sutton is gonna be fun to watch. God, Samhan looks bigger every time I see him.
1:15: I guess Jay Wright’s “minor teaching point” is over. Samhan could not have asked for a better start to this game. Eight points on 4-6 shooting. SMU does not look intimidated early. I fact, Villanova still looks like they’re getting over whatever hangover they were nursing that caused them to almost get beaten by Bob Morris.
1:26: Samhan just rooked with that second foul. I agree with Raftery. That should have been a no-call.
Each day this week during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament we’re asking some of our top correspondents to put together a collection of notes and interesting tidbits about each region. If you know of something that we should include in tomorrow’s submission, hit us up at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.
South Region Notes (Patrick Sellars)
Everybody expects Baylor to have problems with Old Dominion’s zone in their second round matchup. The zone ODU ran against Notre Dame in their first round game was one of the key reasons the Monarchs came out on top. Here is a great breakdown of tomorrow’s game from the American Chronicle.
Mark Turgeon is one of the best up and coming coaches in college basketball, and here is an article recapping his unique coaching style. As a former Oregon assistant there are whisperings over in Eugene about whether they will offer Turgeon the job, and if he would even consider leaving what he has at Texas A&M.
Tennessee head coach Bruce Pearl says that Ohio is a lot like his previous team, UW-Milwaukee. In addition to being an extremely confident group, they Bobcats rely heavily on three point shooting.
President Obama is at the 96.6th percentile of ESPN brackets after the first round. However, he did have Georgetown going to the Elite Eight, so his chances at the grand prize may be less promising.
For one of the first times all season, Cole Aldrich will be going up against somebody who is actually bigger than him in UNI’s Jordan Eglseder. The Panthers’ big man was arrested earlier in the year on DUI charges, and his numbers have taken a slight dip since his return, but he will play a huge role in any upset bid by Northern Iowa.
CBS Sports’ Gregg Doyel said that this Northern Iowa team is like other memorable cinderellas such as George Mason and Davidson. His reasoning? He has gone on record saying how UNI has no chance of winning,and that is what he said about the Patriots a few years ago.
Despite playing for two previous teams before the Bobcats, Mike Freeman says that no player typifies Ohio basketball more than Armon Bassett. Bassett was a key catalyst for Ohio’s rout of Georgetown, and he has 148 points in his last five games.
Don’t look now but Kentucky coach John Calipari said he is concerned about Wake Forest who outrebounded Texas by 25 in their win Thursday. “They got 20 offensive rebounds against Texas, who prides itself in that toughness and that rebounding,” Calipari told the AP. “I just watched tape and, you know, you get sick to your stomach.” The Demon Deacons have momentum and nothing to lose against the Wildcats, the New Orleans Times-Picayune points out.
Cornell waited for its moment for two years and finally put on a show over Temple using players that were largely overlooked by major college basketball.
Wisconsin barely survived its first-round game against Wofford, who caught a tough break to end their first NCAA Tournament appearance.
Is Washington soft? No way. The Seattle Times said Coach Lorenzo Romar let his players play in the final seconds and won the game his way.
Darington Hobson hurt his wrist but he still has New Mexico thinking big.
Missourishut down Clemson’s Trevor Booker in their win today. CBSSports asks, will Bob Huggins and West Virginia be able to handle the pressure?
West Region Notes – (Andrew Murawa)
While Murray State and its 31 wins didn’t exactly come out of nowhere to beat Vanderbilt in the first round, they know for sure now that they won’t be catching anyone by surprise, especially their second round opponent, Butler. And even though senior forward Danero Thomas has become an overnight star in the wake of his buzzer-beating game-winner on Thursday, it’s back to business for him and his teammates who still have work to do.
While Jimmer Fredette has more important things on his mind today, BYU fans can look forward to sweating out his NBA draft decision this offseason. While the Cougars have relied heavily on Fredette this season, it may have been his struggle with mononucleosis in January that helped BYU head coach Dave Rose discover what sophomore Michael Loyd, Jr. could do when given the chance
And, once again, Sunday’s game times have been released, with Syracuse and Gonzaga getting the early spotlight at 12:10pm EDT and Xavier/Pitt among a trio of games wrapping up the first weekend of the tournament with an estimated start-time of 4:50pm.
Over the next two days in a series of separate posts, RTC will break down all 16 of the second round games using our best analytical efforts to understand these teams, the matchups and their individual strengths and weaknesses. Our hope is that you’ll let us know in the comments where you agree, disagree or otherwise think we’ve lost our collective minds. Here are the Saturday games.
1:05 pm – #2 Villanova vs. #10 St. Mary’s (Providence pod)
A great opening game of the day for the group of teams that produced the best opening day of the NCAA Tournament ever. A lot of experts are going to be calling for an upset here and based on the way these two teams are playing we can’t say that we blame them. The Wildcats came into the NCAA Tournament having lost five of seven games and nearly lost to Robert Morris (down by 7 with less than 4 minutes left before some controversial calls went ‘Nova’s way). On the other side, the Gaels stormed through the West Coast Conference Tournament and knocked off Richmond, a team that a lot of people had as a potential sleeper, in the first round. The key to this game will be how Reggie Redding handles Omar Samhan. After watching Samhan rip apart the Spiders, Jay Wright has to be concerned about his interior players going against one of the best low-post players in the country. On the other side, Saint Mary’s has to figure out how to deal with Scottie Reynolds and the rest of the Wildcat backcourt. They are certainly better equipped to match-up with Villanova’s perimeter players with Mickey McConnell and Matthew Dellavedova than the Wildcats are to handle Samhan. Saint Mary’s perimeter players pack enough offensive punch to make keep up with Villanova’s guards, but Mouphtaou Yarou and Redding shouldn’t challenge Samhan too much defensively. The one wildcard here is Reynolds. Will he “learn” from Wright’s “teaching moment” and become the Scottie Reynolds we knew for most of the past two seasons or will be the 2-15 from the field Reynolds?
The Skinny: Samhan overwhelms the Wildcats on the inside and advance into the Sweet 16 as this year’s Cinderella.
3:20 pm – #5 Butler vs. #13 Murray State (San Jose pod)
The second game of the second round will feature the top mid-major program in the east versus an upstart who would love to get there themselves. In their first round game, if you haven’t heard, the Racers’ Danero Thomas hit a shot at the buzzer to knock Vanderbilt out of the Tournament, but what you may not know about that game is that Murray State pretty much controlled it throughout. It was very late when Vandy regained the lead and set the stage for Thomas’ game winner. The point: Murray is better than your typical #13 seed Cinderella. Butler, on the other hand, had a weak first half and a superb second half to put away UTEP. It was two of the staples of Butler’s attack — relentless halfcourt defense and the three-ball — that allowed the Bulldogs to quickly take the lead and never look back against the Miners. As for this game, Murray State does many of the same things that Butler does, it’s just that Brad Stevens’ team does those things better. It will certainly be interesting to see how Butler responds to being the Big (Bull)Dog in an NCAA Tournament game, as they’re usually the upstart taking on some higher-seeded Kansas or Florida type of team.
The Skinny: We’d love to take Murray State here, but Butler isn’t going to let a johnny-come-lately out-Butler them en route to the Sweet Sixteen, so we expect Butler to hang on and win by 6-8 points.
Alright, we’re through with three-fourths of the first round, and it’s time for the Friday night session. This round of games always has some interesting television matchups as CBS tries to maximize interest in the after-work crowd. We’re going to be tracking all of the games but we’ll move around to the most interesting ones as appropriate. Here’s the lineup:
#8 Gonzaga vs. #9 Florida State
#7 Oklahoma State vs. #10 Georgia Tech
#1 Duke vs. #16 Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#5 Michigan State vs. #12 New Mexico State
#1 Syracuse vs. #16 Vermont
#2 Ohio State vs. #15 UC Santa Barbara
#8 Louisville vs. #9 California
#4 Maryland vs. #13 Houston
Let’s tip it off and see where it takes us…
7:15: FSU-Gonzaga has already started and Gus Johnson is just waiting to explode over something. I think that he senses this game might be his best chance tonight, with Vermont-Syracuse at his venue next. One piece of news is that Norm Roberts has been fired at St. John’s, making him the second NYC-area Big East coach to be let go within the past few days.
7:21: So far, Gonzaga offense >> FSU defense. A 9-0 run by the Zags has given them a nice early margin. Georgia Tech is pitching a shutout over on the other channel, 6-0 so far. With both of those ACC teams, you’re never really sure what you’re going to get. So far it looks like “good” GT and “bad FSU.”
7:31: Goodness, the Seminole offense is ugly. If they get themselves down too far here, they’re never going to be able to come back. Quick aside, I was just thinking about this and they confirmed it. The Big 12 is 5-1 right now, with the lone loss coming with Texas in overtime against Wake Forest. The others: Big East (3-3), SEC (2-2), Big Ten (3-1), A10 (1-2), MWC (2-2), ACC (1-1).
7:37: The Zag offense is smokin’ hot right now – well over 50% from the field. This one isn’t looking very good for FSU whatsoever. Focusing over on Ga Tech-Oklahoma State for a while, which is at 15-15 at the moment. Our sense on this game was that it would be a close game with OSU pulling it out at the end. We’ll see whether that rings true.
We already talked about how great the first set of games today were , but it looks like the outstanding play didn’t stop. While Danero Thomas will be the name du jour to drop around the water cooler on Friday to act like you know what you are talking about, he wasn’t the only one etching his name into his school’s lore. In between another series of ridiculous games (Ohio shooting Georgetown right out of the NCAA Tournament and Washington mounting a huge comeback against Marquette), Northern Iowa was battling UNLV in a game that was tied at 66 with time winding down. Kwadzo Ahelegbe appeared to be dribbling out the clock and for a moment it seemed that the Panthers might not even get a shot off before the ball end up in the hands of Ali Farokhmanesh, who launched a shot that will only grow in legend in Cedar Falls, Iowa:
Farokhmanesh’s shot help UNI win its first game in the NCAA Tournament since 1990 when they were a #14 seed playing against #3 Missouri and they were facing a very similar situation with the game tied with 10 seconds left when the ball ended up in the hands of Maurice Newby:
Amazing, Farokhmanesh took his game-winning shot from almost the same spot on the court in the same situation as Newby did almost 20 years ago to the day. Unfortunately for UNI they lost their next game in 1990 to Minnesota. This year, they will play will play overall #1 Kansas. For the sake of the Panthers and their fans, hopefully that part of history does not repeat itself.
Best first flight of games ever? It just might be. Right now the Selection Committee are looking like a bunch of geniuses. We have confidence in the second flight of games bringing some excitement, too. We popped for the DirecTV package so we’ll be monitoring every game:
Ohio vs Georgetown
East Tennessee State vs Kentucky
Northern Iowa vs UNLV
Washington vs Marquette
San Diego State vs Tennessee
Wake Forest vs Texas
Lehigh vs Kansas
Montana vs New Mexico
After what we saw this afternoon, we suggest you join us for our live-blogging feature this evening. Get that refresh-button finger warmed up, and by all means let us know in the comments section what you’re watching and how you’re celebrating this unofficial national holiday. We’ll start at around 7 PM ET. See you there!
7:00: That’s OK Hemogoblin. Though scheduling a fantasy baseball draft TODAY?? Hmmm… Anyway, Butler is polishing off UTEP in a game that is going to screw up a lot of brackets. UTEP was a popular upset pick for the first round, and sometimes beyond. Frankly, I expected more from Arnett Moutrie at the forward spot. Zero points today.
7:30: OK, sorry there, folks. Had a quick dinner break, which I tried to time right so it would happen during the single-game interval. Didn’t hit it. We haven’t missed much. Kentucky has started pretty hot against ETSU and UNLV has taken an early lead over Northern Iowa.
7:52: Kentucky is shooting 70% to start this game. YEESH. They’re already up 41-16 against ETSU. At what point do you pull the starters to rest for the second game against either Wake or Texas?
7:58: Anyone want to wake up Georgetown? The Armon Bassett/D.J. Cooper tandem has been quite effective for the Bobcats, so far a combined 6-12 and 15 of Ohio U.’s 33 points.
8:02: Goodness. John Wall already has seven assists. Let’s see what else is on…
This is an idea we’ve had bouncing around in the dome for a while now, and since we’re not smart enough to actually do a bunch of number-crunching analysis with regression formulas and all that other statistical nonsense, we’re going to do what we know how to do — eyeball it. (note: if you want a more data-driven analysis, visit Vegas Watch for a region-by-region breakdown) We’ve taken a look at the Pomeroy numbers for the last five seasons (2005-09) to get a sense as to the type of offensive and defensive efficiency numbers that constitute your typical Elite Eight/Final Four/Runner-Up/Championship team. We know that all of these teams are pretty darn good — but can we draw any conclusions based on the past five years of historical data that might give us a clue as to how we should be looking at this year’s bracket?
Here’s the list of roughly thirty or so teams with the strongest efficiency differentials in the 2009-10 season (sorted as such): that far right column is the key number for our purposes. The greater the efficiency differential, the more dominant a team tends to be. Remember that both the offensive and defensive efficiency statistics represent the number of points a team scores over 100 possessions of basketball. +120 is really good for offense, while less than 90 is really good on defense. Anytime a team’s differential approaches +30 points or more, we’re reaching rarefied air in college basketball. (note - Pomeroy doesn’t provide historical data prior to past years’ tournaments, but we still think there is some value in looking at his final ratings because the likelihood that a team significantly improves or regresses during the snapshot window of the NCAA Tournament is small). If you don’t follow Pomeroy regularly, you might be a little surprised at the placement of certain teams versus some others. Have a look…
So what, right? Well, let’s see if we can use the historical data that we have from Pomeroy to make assessments of this year’s batch of teams and their prospects.
National Champions
Let’s first take a look at the last five national championship teams. What jumps out at us immediately is that they’re all offensive juggernauts. Every one of them is ranked first or second in offensive efficiency. These teams know how to score the ball. Defensive efficiency is a little more spotty, but they’re all pretty good (<90 and ranking in the top twenty). The average differential is really high at 37.4 points per 100 possessions, and all of them easily reach the +30 threshold in that regard.
Andy Katz once again had the privilege of visiting President Obama this year to go through his bracket step by step. We like that he didn’t end up with all chalk, slotting Villanova and Kansas State as #2 seeds into the Final Four this year (along with favorites Kansas and Kentucky). You recall that he picked the champion (UNC) in 2009, but he missed on his other three F4 teams — Louisville, Pittsburgh and Memphis, and his first round was pretty much a disaster. One out of four is a pretty good success rate on Capitol Hill, but what was palpable in this year’s version of the unveiling was how much more stressed the environment (and Obama) seemed at the White House. It was almost a little uncomfortable, a painful reminder of the mental and physical rigors of running the country in the midst of a recession. Here’s the clip.
Backdoor Cuts is a weekly college basketball discussion between RTC correspondents Dave Zeitlin, Steve Moore and Mike Walsh that occasionally touches on relevant subjects. This week the guys debate the teams they will choose to hate during the NCAA Tournament this year.
DAVE ZEITLIN: We’ve written a lot of words throughout this college basketball season, and let’s be honest: most of them haven’t been very good. But there was at least one column I hold a particular affinity for — our mid-December piece where we all picked different teams to support. Our reasoning was simple enough. Knowing full well our mid-major alma maters weren’t going anywhere this year (although Steve’s Boston U. team made a cute little tournament run), we each decided to throw our allegiances behind a likable team with a more realistic chance of going dancing. After not-so-careful consideration, I chose Maryland, Mike chose Ohio State and Steve chose Temple.
Which brings us to today. As the greatest sporting event in the world is set to tip off, we don’t even need to worry about brackets or silly office pools. Those are for idiots who only root for teams like Penn and St. Joe’s. We’ve got our squads, all of whom are playing great basketball at the right time. And even though I really like Ohio State and Temple (especially the Buckeyes’ Evan Turner and his love for Lady Gaga) I’m up for a friendly wager that involves Maryland crab cakes, Philly cheesesteaks and whatever people eat in Ohio. Let’s do this thing, Terps.
Evan Turner Thinking About Basketball or Gaga?
But I also say we expand on this idea. In addition to our new teams to root for, I say we all pick new teams to root AGAINST. And it can’t be Duke. Hating Duke is kind of like Madonna: It’s old and it’s been done way too much. But since it obviously shouldn’t be one of the little guys (how can we hate on our own people?), that narrows the choices. I’ll save Kentucky for Steve, since he likes Calipari about as much as those little buggers you get around your eyes when you wake up. And I have a feeling Mike will pick Oklahoma State because he just can’t get over 2004 (sorry, Mike, had to do it again). So after eliminating those schools, as well as the University of Phoenix Online, I’m deciding to go with … Kansas. Why? Well, what better team to root against than the team everyone will pick to win it all? Also, I’ve actually picked the Jayhawks many years, but they’ve usually let me down. Finally, my oldest friend is a dieahard Kansas fan and he doesn’t even know what “Rock Chalk Jayhawk” means while screaming it over and over again. I mean, come on! Are you allowed to just put any two nouns in front of your team nickname and have it be a saying? Next year at the Palestra, I’m going to start a “Textbook Ruler Quakers” chant and hope it catches on. But I digress. Um, which teams are you guys choosing?
Ok, so team to love? Team to hate? What else should we root for in our forget-office-pools-because-we-devised-our-own-system-and-no-one-else-can-play bracket?
MIKE WALSH: What are we, mayors? The food thing is just as old and played out as hating Duke and Madonna. What do you guys say we raise the stakes? Maybe the losers have to write their next column naked … we’re talking fourth base here (as if people didn’t think our infatuation with college hoops wasn’t weird enough). Or better yet, maybe the losers have to shave their dogs. Or maybe the losers have to get their wife or fiance pregna … on second though, food works. Yeah, food is fine.
Then what should I get when I win? While I’ve never actually been to Ohio, I hear they fancy themselves quite the chili connoisseurs. So when my Buckeyes are still hitting the hardwood long after Maryland and Temple have hung up their hightops, you guys can get me a big ‘ol bowl of Cincinnati-style chili. Just put it in an envelope and send it my way, I’m sure it will travel just fine.
Over the next two days in a series of separate posts, RTC will break down all 32 of the first round games using our best analytical efforts to understand these teams, the matchups and their individual strengths and weaknesses. Our hope is that you’ll let us know in the comments where you agree, disagree or otherwise think we’ve lost our collective minds. Here are the Thursday evening games.
7:10 pm – #8 Northern Iowa vs. #9 UNLV (Oklahoma City pod)
The Midwest Region’s first game of the tournament features two teams battling for the privilege of going up against Kansas in the next round. What press there is about Northern Iowa, Jordan Eglseder gets most of it. UNLV will also have to watch out for senior guard Ali Farokhmanesh, a streaky three-point shooter who’s had five straight games in single figures and is due for a run. It was thought at the beginning of the year that UNLV’s Tre’Von Willis and Oscar Bellfield would do a little more sharing of the scoring burden for the Runnin Rebels this year, but it’s been Willis who’s shouldered most of the load. At 17.5 PPG, he averages a full seven points more than the Rebels’ next leading scorer, sophomore forward Chace Stanback. Both of these teams take good care of the basketball and, even though neither of them is going to give the scoreboard operator much of a workout, the game itself should be a good one between two teams of similar talent. We hope all these guys get to enjoy the trappings of the tournament… because it won’t last long, sorry to say.
The Skinny:In a game played in the mid-50s (both in tempo and era), look for UNI to make the key plays down the stretch to win this one by four.
7:15 pm – #1 Kentucky vs. #16 ETSU (New Orleans pod)
If any #16 seed is going to be the first to topple a top seed in this bracket, here’s your best shot. East Tennessee State was in this exact position one March ago and took #1 Pittsburgh to the wire. In fact, the Buccaneers trailed by just three points with 2:47 left in a contest usually reserved for monumental blowouts. ETSU was expected to rebuild after losing four starters from the Atlantic Sun champion of 2008-09, but the Bucs pulled off two upsets in the A-Sun Tournament and toppled Mercer in a true road game, meaning ETSU and former UAB headman Murry Bartow are dancing for the second straight campaign. One player who may give the top seed Wildcats some trouble is a 6’4 wing named Tommy Hubbard that has finally harnessed his talent and is one of the most improved players in the nation. Let’s be honest here, though: Kentucky should roll over the underdog Bucs. The Big Blue has more athleticism and pure ability than any team in the field, never mind the A-Sun champion that finished the season with 14 losses. No guard can come close to contain the blazing speed of John Wall. DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson should have their way on the boards. Even a few breathtaking alley-oops could be in store for the ESPN folks to feast on. Last year Cal State Northridge gave John Calipari’s Memphis team a real scare in the first round. Expect the Kentucky head coach to learn from that game and have his squad prepared to blow the doors off ETSU from the opening tip to the final buzzer.
The Skinny: Kentucky will spend most of the game up 20+ before calling off the dogs Cats to win by fifteen or so.
Each day this week during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament we’re asking some of our top correspondents to put together a collection of notes and interesting tidbits about each region. If you know of something that we should include in tomorrow’s submission, hit us up at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.
#8 Texas was once the top team in the nation, but now they are reeling. However, a team trending even worse might be their opponent: #9 Wake Forest. Demon Deacon Head Coach Dino Gaudio saidAl-Farouq Aminu had an x-ray done on his hand and appears to be ready to play on Thursday. Meanwhile, Texas, who comes in having lost seven of their last nine games to teams in the NCAA Tournament, said he is trying to deflect questions that the Longhorns are done this year. “There are people saying Texas is done,” Texas coach Rick Barnestold the Dallas Morning News. “I don’t think our guys have felt like that at any point.” Meanwhile Wake Forest’s last road win against an NCAA Tournament team was their December 5 win over Gonzaga, 77-75.
#5 Temple against #12 Cornell will be the game to watch on Friday to start. The subplot of course is that Cornell head coach Steve Donahue spent ten years as an assistant under Temple head coach Fran Dunphy, who crossed town from Penn to Temple in 2006. Donahue said he purposely does not schedule Dunphy’s Owls for a reason. “See, we would never play each other in a regular season game because it would be torture. In this profession, you want your friends to advance,” Donahue told the Ithaca Journal. “The NCAA tournament is the pinnacle of what you do, so both of us will have to get over that.” Dunphy reflected similar sentiments to the Philadelphia Daily News. “If you had said to me who do you not want to play? Cornell,” Dunphy said about the matchup. “We’re good friends and there is a no-win situation in that.”
#11 Washington, the Pac-10 Tournament champion,had to play to get into the field of 65. Their opponent, #6 Marquette, is not happy about traveling to San Jose to play the Seattle school. “They going to fly, or drive?” Marquette coach Buzz Williams asked the AP of the Huskies’ trip to the neutral site. “I think anytime you play on the West Coast against a team from the Pac-10, you are the underdog.”
#3 New Mexico, the regular season champion of the Mountain West Conference, will have their hands full with #14 Montana’s Anthony Johnson who scored 34 of his 42 points in the second half to clinch their Big Sky championship and NCAA Tournament bid. When asked about his ability, Lobos head coach Steve Alfordtold the AP, “We know he’s extremely talented … a potent scorer.” The Lobos will be playing to try to reach their first Sweet 16 in school history.
#7 Clemson taking on #10 Missouri will be an interesting matchup, guaranteeing an up-tempo pressuring style that Clemson coach Oliver Purnell favors. Missouri coach Mike Andersontold The St. Louis Globe-Democrat, “It won’t be one of those, walk it up and pass it about 20 times or five times. It’s going to be end-to-end. (It’s going to be) some athletic kids hopefully making some athletic plays.”
#2 West Virginia will tip off the NCAA Tournament against #15 Morgan State on Thursday. Coach Bob Huggins did not mince words when asked on whether or not West Virginia should be a top seed. “I thought statistically we were a 1,” Huggins said Sunday to the AP. “The disappointing thing is that when they stand up there and say, ‘Let’s look at the full body of work,’ and if you look at the full body of work, we were probably a 1.” The Mountaineers probably have a case for a #1 seed and will look to come out and show it to start the Tournament.
This is the fourth of our four quick-and-dirty region breakdowns. This will serve to help the quick triggers who like to fill out their brackets first thing on Monday morning. For the rest of you, we’ll be providing more detailed game-by-game analysis throughout the rest of the week.
Edward Jones Dome Hosts the Midwest Regional
Region: Midwest
Favorite: Kansas, #1-seed, 32-2. The overall #1 seed. The experts say there are no dominant teams this year, but for our money this year’s Jayhawks are just as dominant as North Carolina was in 2008-09. Top-flight weapons at every position. A solid bench. Excellent coaching. Youth. Experience. Any way you prefer to be beaten, they’ll beat you. That switch they flipped to put Texas A&M away in the Big 12 Tournament was scary, but that’s the sort of command of which they’re capable.
Should They Falter: Ohio State, #2-seed, 27-7. We all know how special Evan Turner is. But teams seem to make the mistake of thinking that this team has no other weapons. David Lighty, Jon Diebler, and William Buford are all capable of big games. They defer to Turner, yet Turner enjoys sharing the wealth. As a team, they almost never take a bad shot, a trait that will serve them well even more this time of year.
Grossly Overseeded: Northern Iowa, #9-seed, 28-4. Northern Iowa’s only win in the NCAA was 20 years ago. I know that has nothing to do with now, but the last four times they’ve been to the Tournament, they’ve been a popular upset pick and have always come up short. To be honest, based on their body of work, they’re probably seeded where they should be, it’s just that there are a few teams seeded lower than them that are playing a little better brand of basketball right now. If UNI can give us some results in the Tournament, then we’ll be happy to put some chips on their square in the future.
Grossly Underseeded: Michigan State, #5-seed, 24-8.At this point, we should all be used to Tom Izzo overachieving in the NCAA Tournament. This team went 14-4 in the extremely tough Big Ten. After that stretch in which they dropped three straight (at Wisconsin, at Illinois, and Purdue), everyone forgot about them. Then they won five of six to end the year before the conference tournament, the only loss coming against surging Ohio State. Don’t ever sell the Spartans short in the Big Dance.
Sweet Sixteen Sleeper: Houston, #13-seed, 19-15. Aubrey Coleman is the nation’s leading scorer at 25.0 PPG, and it looks like he and Kelvin Lewis have finally started to put it together. Honestly, we thought we’d see more out of the Cougars this year. They’ll be a tougher out for Maryland than everyone thinks. Houston is second in the nation in turnovers per game (8.8), and 12th in turnovers forced (16.8), nice numbers when you have a pair of guards who can scoop up those turnovers and score quickly.
Final Four Sleeper: #5 Michigan State. They can own a game through their work on the boards.
From today until Selection Sunday, keep checking Rush the Court for updates on who’s in, who’s out and seeding.
UPDATES ALL DAY TODAY. FINAL BRACKET REVEALED JUST BEFORE 6 PM ET.
(Note: each of the four teams in one seed grouping is listed in pecking order in terms of who is closer to moving up a seed line. This is used to determine game location and matchups similar to Joe Lunardi’s S-Curve listing).
#13 Seeds: Murray State, New Mexico State, Oakland, Houston
#14 Seeds: Wofford, Sam Houston State, Ohio, Montana
#15 Seeds: Morgan State, UC-Santa Barbara, North Texas, Vermont
#16 Seeds: Robert Morris, East Tennessee State, Lehigh, Winthrop, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Last Four In: California, Utah State, Minnesota, Illinois
Last Four Out: Mississippi State, Florida, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall
Bids per conference: Big East (8), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (6), ACC (5), Mountain West (4), SEC (3), Atlantic 10 (3), Pac-10 (2), West Coast (2), WAC (2), C-USA (2).
Meet Katie and Christie, two of the cockiest KU fans in the throng. Pretty easy to see why.
Was it raining in Kansas City yesterday? You’d never know it. Even with temperatures in the mid-40s and a light drizzle falling, the Power and Light District was still filled with college hoop lovers to the point where you could barely navigate through it. The Kansas fans are still greatest in number and noise-making ability, but the Kansas State fans have been slowly creeping up to rival the Jayhawk supporters in both categories.
I don’t have to tell you about how many great teams there are in the Big 12 and the high quality of basketball that the conference has given us all year, but how fitting is it that for the final, we have Sunflower Showdown III? Frank Martin said that Saturday’s game will have “the greatest atmosphere for any one game this year.” Couldn’t agree more, coach.
After last night’s win over Baylor, Kansas State’s Jacob Pullen was asked about how special it was to get a third shot at Kansas in Saturday’s Big 12 Tournament championship. He responded with, “We just want to win the Big 12 Tournament,” conceding later that his team felt like they “lost the regular season title at Kansas,” but claimed that the Wildcats needed no added incentive to get pumped up for a Big 12 title game. We admire Mr. Pullen’s diplomacy, but this is the game just about everybody wanted — the two best teams in the best conference. Ridiculous rivals. National title contenders. Frank Martin predicted that this would be the best atmosphere of any college basketball game this season, and we think he’s right. Kansas has started slow in its two Big 12 Tournament games, taking a half to get warmed up. Kansas State has played Final Four-level basketball in their two games, and turned in one of the best performances by any team in any single game this year in their defeat of Baylor last night. Who’s ready for Sunflower Showdown III? We sure are, and we’re honored to be courtside for it with a championship edition of RTC Live. The game’s on at 6 PM ET on ESPN, and we hope you’ll check us out while you’re watching. See you there!
***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game
CUSA Championship – UTEP vs. Houston – 11:30 am on CBS (***)
The Miners have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season, but if they can finish their run through the Conference USA tournament, they could be looking at a #5 of #6 seed in the NCAA tournament. They have now won 16 games in a row, and they will face a mediocre Houston team that is just 18-15 on the year. UTEP is the more talented team, as they rank twelfth in defensive efficiency, but they have had some trouble against the Cougars this year. The Miners won the most recent matchup, but finished the game just 2-18 from the three-point line. In the first contest in January, Houston actually won 75-65 thanks to 11-20 shooting from beyond the arc. UTEP’s Achilles heel has been their free throw shooting, and if Houston doesn’t beat up on themselves (they have a 1.4/1 assist to turnover ratio) the Cougars have a chance to steal a bid.
America East Championship – Boston University vs. Vermont – 12:00 pm on ESPN2 (***)
A few weeks ago, Boston University looked as if they had no business being in the NCAA tournament. At the end of January, the Terriers stood at just 11-11, and were struggling in the America East conference. However, BU won eight of their last nine games, and has earned a shot to dance with a 70-63 upset over top seeded Stony Brook in the semifinals. There has been a few days rest from the semifinal game until today, so they will be more rested than most teams during championship week. Vermont is an equally hot team, as they are 10-1 in their last 11 games, but they have had close calls against the Terriers this season. In February, Vermont won in Boston 76-75, and it took Evan Fjeld’s layup with nine seconds left to seal the victory. The largest lead for either team in the second half was just five points, and Vermont could not stop John Holland, who finished with 29 points. Holland shoots 85% from the line this season, and if the Terriers can grab a lead heading into the closing minutes, free throw shooting could become a factor. However, in their first matchup, BU got five points from their bench, while six Catamounts combined for 22 points, and Vermont ran away with a 20 point victory. Vermont is 9-2 at home this year, and they look strong heading into this game.
MEAC Championship – South Carolina State vs. Morgan State – 2:00 pm on ESPN2 (***)
Morgan State is by far the best team in the MEAC, and the most likely candidate to pull off an upset in the tournament this season. Nevertheless, they are going to have to get past a dangerous SC State team before they can secure their bid. The Bulldogs were just 18-13 on the year, but they actually beat Morgan State on the road in their most recent matchup. The Bears shot just 22% from the three point line, and SC State’s Jason Flagler had 24 points in the 71-68 victory. The first game was a different matter, as Morgan State won by 15 points despite another poor shooting performance. The Bulldogs do not rank among the top 250 teams in either offensive or defensive efficiency, while Morgan State ranks a relatively high #125 in offensive efficiency. If South Carolina State continues to have more turnovers than assists, as they have this whole season, they have no chance of winning this game.
We’ll try it again from Kansas City with a great doubleheader. It’s the Big 12 semifinals with the Jayhawks taking on Texas A&M in the first one, and in the very same window about a half hour later, we’ve got Baylor against a K-State team that yesterday looked like the best team in the tournament. Frank Martin joked yesterday about how he’s excited that he finally gets to use a second suit in the Big 12 Tournament, so we’ll see how it works for him. More importantly, the quick turnaround is something each of these four teams is going to have to get used to in a few days. No Cinderellas in the Big 12 Tournament this year — these are just four semifinal teams that are grinding it out for the championship of the best conference from this past season. We hope you’ll join us, and by all means, give us a comment or two. Let’s have some fun.
After two days of hoops at the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City, what’s all the talk? The rocking of chalk.
I don’t just mean the Jayhawk victory over Texas Tech. The crowds in KC are definitely enjoying themselves and taking in some high-quality hoops, but they’re wondering where the upsets are. So far, the only real upset we’ve had so far was the first round toppling of Missouri by Nebraska. As I was talking to some Kansas State fans about this in a local restaurant after the game, one of them spoke the truth: “Upsets are great, as long as it’s not happening to your team.”
Upsets or no, I’ll say this: these flyover country folks know how to enjoy college basketball. It’s obvious from being here how much everyone who’s taken over downtown KC this week, from the fan with the worst seat in the Sprint Center to the highest Big 12 administrator, loves college hoops. My spot on media row is right beside ESPN’s (and Big 12 Network’s) Holly Rowe, who couldn’t be nicer, and is probably a bigger overall sports fan than anyone in the arena. Like most experts, she says it’s coming down to Kansas and Kentucky in the final, but also is high on Ohio State. And when I asked her about certain colleagues of hers who are appearing on certain ABC dancing shows later this year, she smiled, suddenly turned serious, and said, “I’m the better salsa dancer. That’s all I’m saying.”
I love days like yesterday. Sure, the drive was a beautiful 8.5 hours of the same view — that is to say, farms, farms, and more farms, and where there weren’t actual farms, there was grass. And it’s all flatter than a Shaquille O’Neal free throw. But no matter the surroundings, it’s one of my favorite things to do. Is there any greater feeling — especially right after thawing out from a tough winter — than packing a bag and a cooler (of fruit, granola, and bottled water, mind you), filling the gas tank, and hitting the road? There aren’t many, for me. Especially when the Big 12 Tournament is waiting at the end of that journey. Don’t get me wrong, though — I was thankful for the satellite radio. Have the satellite radio guys received their Nobel Prize, yet? One second, I’m listening to ESPN Radio or Sporting News Radio dudes talking about hoops. Then the NFL talk starts and I switch to, say, the BBC’s Europe Today, or a song by Gomez, or some blues from B.B. King. Then back to hoops talk. Fantastic. And no, we’re not affiliated with them in any way. I’m just being honest.
One of the best parts of any journey like this is when I text my friends who are at their jobs. I’ll send them some generic message asking them what they’re doing, and they’ll respond with some variation of, “I’m at the office, knee-deep in status reports/memos/directives, trying to knock things off my action items list. You never text during work hours. What’s up?” And I’ll type, “Oh, nothing. I was driving to the Big 12 Tournament, enjoying some tunes, a gorgeous drive, a 70-degree day, and the prospect of four days of top-flight basketball. Thought I’d give you a shout. But you go back to your thing.” Even though this is a blog and I’m allowed to type almost anything, I’ll spare you the vitriol that my friends offered in response. Not even close to being safe for work.
So, as the comedian says, I’m here all week. This’ll mostly be about basketball, but you might see some reviews of barbecue restaurants and/or interviews and pics from the festivities here. This is such a great time of year, and this is the conference tournament at which to be. Now, some notes from Wednesday’s games:
Texas 82, Iowa State 75
I didn’t know what we were going to get in this one, since Texas was obviously reeling, having dropped eight of 14, and Iowa State had just scored that victory over Kansas. But is this what Texas needed, meaning the second season to arrive? There’s a small part of me that’s been wondering if Texas mentally checked out at the midpoint of the season after they took their first loss because of the boredom that can take over teams. A longshot, I know. But there aren’t many reasons why a team this talented and athletic can’t get themselves out of first gear, a place they seemed to be stuck since the middle of January.
Patrick Sellars is the RTC correspondent for the Big 12 Conference. The Big 12 Tournament begins on Wednesday at Noon CT.
Final Standings
Kansas (15-1, 29-2) - Obviously the Jayhawks are above and beyond the best team in the Big 12, and regardless of what they do in the Big 12 Tournament, KU will be a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Overall, this season has been a wildly successful one for the Jayhawks, but Bill Self and his team will not be satisfied unless they’re hoisting the trophy in Indianapolis.
Kansas State (11-5, 24-6) - After losing two straight games, one to Kansas in Lawrence and another to lowly Iowa State at home, its safe to say that KSU backed its way into the Big 12 Tournament. Kansas State was one of the many surprise teams in the conference this year, and they’ll hope to continue surprising people all the way into April.
Baylor (11-5, 24-6) – This is probably the best team in college basketball that few people are really talking about. Ranked #20 in the nation, Baylor has the resume to be a three seed in the NCAA tournament. After where I picked this team in my preseason poll, I think Scott Drew is a safe pick for my coach of the year in the Big 12.
Texas A&M (11-5, 22-8) - After the loss of Derrick Roland I thought the Aggies were done. But behind great leadership from Donald Sloan and Bryan Davis, TAMU had a legitimate shot at finishing in second place. Even though they didn’t achieve that feat, Mark Turgeon’s team looks pretty good heading into the conference tournament as the winners of three straight. I think if anyone is going to beat Kansas again it could be the Aggies from A&M.
Missouri (10-6, 22-9) - The Tigers are still adjusting to life without Justin Safford (1-2 without him, the one win coming off of a last second buzzer-beater in OT against Iowa State). Mizzou has the best shot to improve their tournament seed if they can beat A&M in the quarterfinals. A third shot at Kansas is what everyone in Columbia is wishing for, but I’m not sure another 20-point loss to Kansas is what MU needs before the NCAA Tournament.
Texas (9-7, 23-8) – If there is any sportswriter in the world that picked Texas to finish sixth in the Big 12 please come forward and let me bask in your wisdom. I think its safe to say UT is the surprise team of the season in this conference, even more so than Oklahoma. The Longhorns have one of the most talented teams in the nation and they will probably end up being a #7 seed in the NCAA tournament. No one in Austin is satisfied. However, if the Longhorns go on a run we could still have the Big 12 final that everyone expected, Kansas vs. Texas.
Oklahoma State (9-7, 21-9) – If the Cowboys want to make some more noise on the national level now is the time to do it. James Anderson will keep you in just about every game, but the other players around him need to step it up. I think this team could be the surprise of the Big 12 Tournament this season, remember they beat Kansas State in Manhattan back in late January and the Wildcats would be their second round matchup if OSU gets past Oklahoma.
Colorado (6-10, 15-15) – Find me one person in Boulder that isn’t happy with an eighth place finish in the Big 12 and I’ll be overly surprised. CU has finally gotten themselves out of the cellar, and this could be enough reason for Cory Higgins to skip the draft and make a run at the NCAA Tournament next season.
Texas Tech (4-12, 16-14) – What started out as a promising year for the Red Raiders has ended quite terribly. Right now TTU is riding a seven-game losing streak and even if they were to beat Colorado in the first round of the conference tournament, it is highly unlikely they could beat KU to make some kind of improbable run.
Oklahoma (4-12, 13-17) - OU fans would love to see an upset of their in-state rival in the first round game, but I also think many Sooners fans feel the same way about this season that the Coates family felt about Old Yeller. Sure, you’d love to see the season go on, but it might be time to put this team out of their misery and head to the offseason.
Iowa State (4-12, 15-16) – I think ISU pulled off the biggest upset of the year in the last game of the regular season. The Cyclones are playing their best basketball at the right time, and Texas can’t take this first round game lightly or they could find themselves on a bus back to Austin as early as Wednesday night.
Nebraska (2-14, 14-17) – The Cornhuskers and Mizzou will meet for the third time this season, and the good news for NU is that usually its hard to beat the same team three times in the same season. However, I don’t see the Huskers pulling off an upset of that caliber, and it looks like NU fans can finally focus on the women’s team, which is undefeated.
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