Friday, March 19 (all CBS)
12:25pm - Minnesota vs. Xavier
12:30pm - Cornell vs. Temple
2:30pm - Siena vs. Purdue
2:35pm - Missouri vs. Clemson
4:45pm - Utah St vs. Texas A&M
7:10pm - FSU vs. Gonzaga
7:15pm - Ga Tech vs. Okla St
7:20pm - NMSU vs. Michigan St
9:30pm - Syracuse vs. Vermont
9:40pm - Houston vs. Maryland
9:45pm - Louisville vs. California
Each day this week during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament we’re asking some of our top correspondents to put together a collection of notes and interesting tidbits about each region. If you know of something that we should include in tomorrow’s submission, hit us up at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.
South Region Notes (Patrick Sellars)
Duke and guard Nolan Smithdon’t think they’ll have an easy path to Indianapolis even though all the “experts” agree that Duke has the easiest road to the Final Four of the number one seeds. Smith said, “This is the NCAA tournament, there’s no such thing as an easy path.”
California, who was considered by many a lock to make the Tournament, was not feeling at ease after the first three brackets were announced and their name was yet to be called. Head coach Mike Montgomery thinks with his team at full health they will be a very tough out for anyone in the tournament.
If there was any doubt that Old Dominion was coming in confident against Notre Dame it should be washed away after reading this New York Times article on their upset victory. I know it is obviously after the fact, but Frank Hassell, ODU’s leading scorer, said “We really weren’t worried about them or Luke (Harangody). We were worried about us.”
Another “after the fact” article, but here is a nice interview with Baylor head coach Scott Drew on being in the NCAA Tournament and how he handles each game. Baylor survived a scare from Sam Houston State, which is a big deal because the #14 seeds were on their game today, and it’s Baylor’s first NCAA Tournament win in 60 years.
With Omar Samhan in foul trouble Saint Mary’s head coach Randy Bennett went to his bench to look for someone who might be able to fill the void, and he went to a player used sparingly during the regular season. The San Francisco Chronicle looks at the freshman’s role in SMC’s big win.
The Philadelphia Inquirer looks at Villanova’sstingy victory over Robert Morris and Jay Wright’s decision to bench star guards Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher to start the game. Wright also said “If we can win this next game and get some practices, we’ve got a chance to be better. But I don’t know if we’re ready for this next game.” That’s music to the ears of all Saint Mary’s fans. What has happened to the Villanova Wildcats?
Overall the South Region is exactly what everyone though it would be, which is that its Duke’s region to win. With Baylor and Villanova both struggling against double digit seeds it looks as if the Blue Devils are now the heavy favorites. However, the NCAA Tournament is all about surviving and advancing, one day your team can beat a #14 seed narrowly, the next thing you know they’re in the Final Four (ex: Villanova 2009).
As we move through the next few days when automatic bids will be handed out on a regular basis, we’re going to break down the teams for you so that you can start thinking about your bracket ahead of time. The pearls of wisdom are meant to help you better understand what these teams are good at and how to make fair comparisons between them — all too often, the capsules you see have a lot of information in them, but very little of it is actually helpful. If you have additional ideas, leave them in the comments. For the good/bad matchups, we’re not necessarily saying that Team X will win; we’re simply pointing out that in an ideal situation, some of that team’s strengths will be more likely to manifest against those particular opponents — so save the emails. We’re still catching up, but these should be the teams through the early part of the week.
It’s all about methodical offense and sticky defense for the Panthers. This team will not beat themselves with mistakes, so you’d better be disciplined in your approach if you hope to beat them. Sixty points is the magic number — the Panthers were 16-0 this year when reaching that score. Possession basketball is the key; a 10-point deficit in the last five minutes against UNI is nearly impossible to recover from, as they take care of the ball (only 10.5 turnovers/game) and hit free throws (75.5%).
Not many mid-majors have a legitimate seven-footer but UNI’s Jordan Eglseder is one such player. He only plays about 22 minutes per game, but he’s an effective scorer in the low post, draws a lot of fouls and is one of the best per-minute rebounders in the nation on both ends. He’s not a game-changer in the sense that he will own the paint, but he is a tough wrinkle to prepare for in the game plan.
The Panthers beat up on some bad major conference teams this year (Iowa, Iowa State, BC) in addition to knocking off some mid-major powers in Old Dominion and Siena. The one confounding loss was to DePaul in the Virgin Islands early in the year where Mac Koshwal (12/19) dominated Eglseder (2/6) inside. Don’t assume that as a trend, though, as Eglseder played well against ISU’s Craig Brackins (20/14) and Purdue’s JaJuan Johnson last season (13/5).
Good Matchups: Wake Forest, Clemson
Bad Matchups: Marquette, UNLV
#6. Old Dominion (26-8, 15-3 CAA) – automatic qualifier
NCAA Seed Range: #9-#11
Three Bruce Pearls of Wisdom:
There’s no one player you have to stop to beat ODU, but if you can slow down 6′10 center Gerald Lee, you’ll have a better chance. The versatile big man was seen in the CAA Tournament taking the ball upcourt against pressure on occasion, in addition to lending his usual 15/5 and 54% shooting from the field. He has six teammates who contribute between six and nine points per game, so keying on any one of them is precarious because the Monarchs share the wealth. They only had six occasions where a player scored 20+ points in a game this year, and five of those were Lee (Marsharee Neely was the other).
ODU is another one of those mid-majors that thrives on possession basketball. They limit your possessions by defending and rebounding among the best in the nation. They also gang-rebound on the offensive glass, giving themselves an extra chance on nearly half of their scoring opportunities. Those extra chances help to make up for what is a fairly lousy three-point (31.5%) and two-point shooting percentage (49.4%).
ODU’s signature win was at Georgetown during Snowpacalypse I in December. They did it by forcing GU point guard Chris Wright into a difficult game (2-8 FG; 4 pts) and collecting eighteen Hoya turnovers. It should be noted that if you can turn over the Monarchs, as Missouri, Northern Iowa and Dayton successfully did in the nonconference slate, they struggle scoring enough points to win.
Championship Monday Night. Four middies had their conference tourneys tonight, and we’ll be damned if we didn’t see at least a couple of RTCs out there (and a half-RTC in the WCC just for good measure). Make no mistake, though, the four mid-major teams that won their leagues tonight are all excellent teams that nobody, we repeat, NOBODY, is going to want to see opposite their name in the brackets next week. Every one of these four squads are seasoned, experienced and battle-tested units that won’t get rattled by seeing some bright lights, a big arena and a brand-name team standing at the other end of the court. If none of these four teams pulls a first-round upset, then we don’t know anything about this game.
WCC Championship. St. Mary’s 81, Gonzaga 62. This game came down to a team that looked like it was playing for its NCAA life versus a team that was just happy going through the motions. It was a complete mismatch in the second half of the WCC title game, as St. Mary’s confirmed its bona fides in a cathartic victory over its biggest rival and in the process serving notice that there are two powers coming out of the WCC this season. The Gaels broke up a close game at halftime with a 51-point second half that included 68% shooting in the second half led by multiple threes from Mickey McConnell (26/6 assts/4 stls) and Ben Allen (20/9/4 assts). Essentially it was a do-no-wrong kind of half for Randy Bennett’s team to the point where his team didn’t even need a big offensive night from their superstar center Omar Samhan (9/7/6 blks). As for Gonzaga, this was the latest in a series of disappointing no-shows during the last six weeks where Mark Few’s team looked largely uninterested and apathetic — losses to San Francisco and LMU were similar occurrences. Elias Harris in particular was miserable tonight, shooting 3-13 for eight points, and the entire team seemed to have grease on their hands with fourteen TOs in the game. We realize that the Zags are always a threat to do some damage in March, but we’re just not convinced that this is one of Mark Few’s better teams, so it wouldn’t surprise us in the least if it was St. Mary’s that sticks around a little longer next week than their better-known counterparts in the NCAA Tournament.
Nope, SMC Didn't Surprise Us (AP/I. Brekken)
MAAC Championship. Siena 72, Fairfield 65 (OT). For an oh-so-brief moment, every bubble team in America held its collective breath. Colin Nickerson’s three-pointer from the left corner was in the air to win the MAAC title for Fairfield, and if it had dropped, the weak bubble would have suddenly gotten a little more crowded with Siena joining the party. Of course, it didn’t fall, and instead Siena capped off its title game comeback by dominating the overtime period and capturing its third straight MAAC championship to return to the NCAA Tournament. For the third straight night, Siena found itself down at the half (this time by eleven) but as appropriate for a seasoned team, they never panicked, instead keeping their cool and eventually working their way back. Edwin Ubiles and Alex Franklin, veterans of four NCAA Tournament games in their careers, combined for 49/19 to lead the Saints, but it was Ubiles’ 360-dunk in the second half that signaled to Fairfield and the rest of the building that Siena was not going to leave without a victory tonight. Forget about the six losses on Siena’s record this year — five of those were away games, and the last we checked, the Tournament is played on neutral floors, and we know what this group is capable of in that respect. Ask Vanderbilt or Ohio State: nobody wants to play this team next Thursday or Friday. To close out the MAAC, check out this video from SienaSaintsBlog of the RTC tonight. Great stuff.
Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga meet in a rematch for the championship of the West Coast Conference tournament tonight with an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament on the line. The Zags hammered the Gaels 83-58 in last year’s championship game, and have beaten the Gaels five times in a row, including both regular season games this year. The Gaels are definitely riding on that bubble this week, and may need a victory to assure their participation in the NCAAs, while Gonzaga is assured of its twelfth straight bid whether they win or lose. RTC Live will be at courtside from the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas to cover all the action tonight, so please join us.
***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game
CAA Championship: Old Dominion vs. William & Mary – 7:00 pm on ESPN (****)
This neutral site game will feature two of the better mid-major teams in the country, but neither team is likely to make the Tournament without a win here. William & Mary was at one time the top ranked team in the RPI in the country, with early wins over Maryland, Wake Forest, and Richmond. Old Dominion is no slouch either, with OOC wins over Marshall, Georgetown, and Charlotte. The Monarchs feature a solid defense at #18 in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. Their offense ranks only #83, though, and they are one of the only teams in the country that has just one scorer in the 10-15 PPG range. However, that offensive weapon, Gerald Lee, is coming off a 26-point performance against VCU in which he went 10-13 from the field. The Tribe, on the other hand, struggles at #187 on defense, but they make up for it with an offense that features three players who average in double figures. Their leading scorer, David Schneider, had only three points in his last game, and has shot only 7-29 in their two games against the Monarchs, but he’s shown an ability to step up in the clutch even when he’s not shooting well in general. If he doesn’t get back on track tonight, though, it could spell trouble for the Tribe as they seek their first NCAA Tournament bid in history.
MAAC Championship: Fairfield vs. Siena – 7:00 pm on ESPN2 (***)
Siena has put together a great season, but they may be on the outside looking in if they lose in the MAAC Championship tonight. They were 17-1 in the MAAC, and they are ranked #28 in the RPI, but the general consensus is that they need a win against Fairfield if they want to make the NCAAs for the third straight season. They have good losses against Temple, Georgia Tech, Northern Iowa and Butler, but they have failed to win any big OOC games the entire year. The Saints swept the season series between the two teams, but Fairfield was one of the only teams in the conference to play them close, and the Stags did so both times. On January 16, they trailed Siena by just one point at halftime, thanks to 50% shooting from beyond the arc. In their February 8 matchup, the Stags lost by just two points, and they outscored the Saints 39-33 in the second half. One of the most interesting elements of both teams is their lack of depth, as Siena played only three reserves in the first game, none of whom scored over three points, and Fairfield had only one bench player who scored. In the rematch, Fairfield’s bench scored six points, and Siena’s reserves scored two points. The Stags don’t rank in the top 100 in either offensive or defensive efficiency, but if they can shoot over 61% from inside the arc like they did in their rematch, they may steal a bid from a great Siena team.
Ed. Note: apologies, but we ran into technical issues during the first game in the WCC semifinals, and were unable to finish tonight’s RTC Live. We should be back in action for tomorrow night’s title tilt between Gonzaga and St. Mary’s.
In tonight’s first semifinal game, Loyola Marymount brings momentum and a memory of its 74-68 upset over Gonzaga on Feb. 18 into a rematch with the Zags at the West Coast Conference tournament from the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas. LMU has won two rounds of the tournament already, including last night’s 84-76 victory over San Francisco, while Gonzaga, as the tournament’s top seed, will play its first game. RTC Live will be courtside for all the action and we invite you to join us beginning at 5:30 p.m. Pacific. In the later game, Saint Mary’s and Portland square off for the third time this season. The teams split their regular-season games — each one winning by five points on its home court — and will be playing tonight for the chance to battle for the tournament championship and an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. Join RTC Live at approximately 7:45 p.m. Pacific for this WCC showdown with postseason implications.
Michael Vernetti is the RTC correspondent for the West Coast Conference.
Final Standings (through games of 2/27/10)
Gonzaga 12-2 (24-5)
Saint Mary’s 11-3 (24-5)
Portland 9-4 (18-9)
San Francisco 7-7 (12-17)
Loyola Marymount 7-7 (16-14)
Santa Clara 3-11 (11-20)
San Diego 3-11 (10-20)
Pepperdine 3-11 (7-23)
Eyes on the Prize
Although one could reasonably forecast a WCC tournament championship game featuring no. 1 seed Gonzaga battling no. 2 seed Saint Mary’s for the automatic NCAA bid, a lot of interesting basketball will be played before that final matchup on Monday night, March 8 (ESPN, 6 p.m. Pacific) in Las Vegas. The last week of conference play settled the torrid battle for fourth place between San Francisco and Loyola Marymount (San Francisco got the nod and a first-round tournament bye because of a better conference record than LMU, including beating the Lions twice), and also set the stage for the most intriguing tournament contest. Before discussing that, however, here’s a look at the overall tournament schedule:
As the season winds closer to a conclusion and Selection Sunday approaches, a bracket snapshot each Monday just doesn’t quite seem adequate. From now until the end of the year, we’ll be providing a Friday seed update that outlines where each team inside and just outside the field of 65 currently stands along with reasoning why certain teams changed seed number since the previous Monday. Enjoy our first edition:
(Note: each of the four teams in one seed grouping is listed in pecking order in terms of who is closer to moving up a seed line. This is used to determine game location and matchups similar to Joe Lunardi’s S-Curve listing).
#1 Seeds:Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Purdue
#2 Seeds: Villanova, Duke, Kansas State, West Virginia
#3 Seeds: Michigan State, Georgetown, New Mexico, Vanderbilt
#4 Seeds: Pittsburgh, Ohio State, Wisconsin, BYU
#5 Seeds: Temple, Gonzaga, Wake Forest, Texas A&M
#6 Seeds: Tennessee, Texas, Baylor, Butler
#7 Seeds: Northern Iowa,Richmond, Xavier, UNLV
#8 Seeds: Maryland, Missouri, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
#9 Seeds: Florida State, Old Dominion, Illinois, Dayton
WCC Dominance. #11 Gonzaga 80, St. Mary’s 61. It was billed the Game of the Year on the west coast (keep the snickering to a minimum), but like so many of the others before it, the end result was the same with Gonzaga knocking off its top rival St. Mary’s tonight. The Zags used a devastating early second-half 16-3 run to break a tight game wide open, and the sense for those of us watching at home was one of vague familiarity. Elias Harris followed up his dunking exhibition from a month ago with a 19/4 night before ultimately fouling out, and Matt Bouldin had 18/5/4 assts in yet another WCC statement win for Gonzaga. Just as in the last game in Moraga, the Zags scorched the nets with a 54% shooting night (57% last month), calling into question the ability of the SMC defenders to stay in front of the more athletic Zags. With the win, GU effectively opens up a two-game lead over its closest competitor using the tiebreaker, and they’re now all but assured to get their tenth straight WCC regular season title in the next few weeks of action. SMC at 21-4 (8-2) is an interesting case for the NCAA Tournament committee right now. They have four ‘quality’ losses (Vanderbilt, USC, Gonzaga twice), but their only really good win was one over Utah State in Logan in December. Their RPI is in the mid-40s, and the last four regular season games probably aren’t going to change that position much. In our eyes the Gaels will need to win all four games to go to 25-4 and have another nice run in the WCC Tournament to ensure a bid this year.
Couldn't Have Said It Any Better (credit: Dan Pelle)
Speaking of Dominance. #15 Butler 68, Youngstown State 57. With this win tonight, Butler’s fourteenth in a row, the Bulldogs clinched their fourth consecutive Horizon League regular season title with three games left in the race. Gordon Hayward was awesome tonight, going for 22/17 in a game that was closer for much of the contest than the final score indicated. Yet, Butler continued to show why they’re a cut above the rest of this league, overcoming an early eight-point deficit to take control in the second half and move to 15-0 in the conference. We’re still a week out from the BracketBuster matchups, but if Butler can win its next two and Siena do likewise, then we’ll have the two teams with the longest current winning streaks in America facing each other in that game.
A Little Upsetting.
Michigan 71, Minnesota 63. The wheels appear to be coming off of Tubby Smith’s ride, as the Al Nolen/Royce White/Trevor Mbakwe sagas appear to be taking their toll on his program in the form of an unexpected loss to a team that came into Minneapolis having dropped five of six with one road win all season (Penn State). The Gopher defense gave up 27/7 to DeShawn Sims and 20/4/7 assts to Manny Harris, which was enough to hold off Minnesota tonight.
St. John’s 74, Louisville 55. Speaking of wheels coming off, on the same day that rumors about Rick Pitino’s interest/non-interest in the Nets job came out, his team laid a gigantic egg in the middle of Madison Square Garden — seriously, you could make a Carnegie Deli-sized sandwich out of this egg. A second-half 27-5 spurt embarrassed his Cardinals to the point where we wonder if he hasn’t already mentally checked out of the Big East. Louisville is rewarded with a trip to Syracuse on Sunday for their troubles.
***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game
Ole Miss @ Mississippi State — 9:00 pm on ESPN (***)
This game between in-state rivals could have a big impact on who will be dancing in March. These teams are in the middle of the SEC standings, but both are within a game of SEC West leader Arkansas. Their records (17-6 for Ole Miss, 16-7 for MSU) are pretty average, but if one of these teams wins their division it could have a big impact on the selection committee. Despite their similar records, these two teams could not be much more different. Mississippi State, who averages less than 73 PPG, ranks 90th in offensive efficiency and but ranks 17th in defense, and second in the country with 8.1 steals per game. The Rebels average over 80 points per contest, but rank 86th in defensive efficiency. Four of UM’s top scorers are guards, and Mississippi State may look to take advantage of their small lineup, as the Bulldogs are eighth in the country at over 38 rebounds a game. The Bulldogs are also playing at home, where they are 10-1 on the year, so look for the Jarvis Varnado (11.3 RPG) to hit the boards hard as usual. MSU won the first matchup in Oxford, and we expect them to beat a smaller Ole Miss club here.
Washington @ California — 9:00 pm on ESPN 2 (***)
The Pac-10 is a mess at the top of the conference where Cal sits a game ahead of five other teams. Washington was near the bottom of the conference a few weeks ago, but four straight wins now have the Huskies at the top of the five-loss teams. All of UW’s wins during the streak came at home, but they will now have to travel to Berkeley, and the Huskies are 0-5 on the road this year. With the exception of the losses at Texas Tech and UCLA, the games have not even been close. Cal averages 77.7 PPG and they rank sixth in the nation in offensive efficiency, but their defense is suspect with a defensive ranking of 63. The Bears have not allowed an opponent to score 75 points in their last seven games, but they will have their hands full with Washington’s offense. Led by Quincy Pondexter’s 20.6 PPG, the Huskies have averaged 93.8 PPG during their winning streak. In the last meeting between the two teams, it was downright ugly (16-48 shooting for Cal, 30-74 shooting for UW). Jerome Randle, Cal’s leading scorer, only had five points in that game, and he should have a much better night at the Haas Pavilion.
St. Mary’s @ #11 Gonzaga — 11:00 pm on ESPN 2 (*****)
To get a feel for how good these teams are, they have combined for a 15-2 record in the WCC (one of the losses came during their previous matchup) and they have won over 85% of their games this season. Both teams have won 11 of their last 12, and given the way these two clubs have played, this game will decide the WCC title. People have been getting on the Zags about their lackluster defense, but they have played solid defense since the game against Loyola Marymount on January 23. The Gaels, on the other hand, are 105th in defensive efficiency, and gave up 89 points to the Bulldogs in their first matchup. Although Gonzaga’s Robert Sacre is a bona-fide seven-footer, Omar Samhan exploited the Zags in the post for 31 points. Elias Harris, who matched Samhan with 31 points of his own in that game, has slowed down since his hot streak at the start of WCC play, but Matt Bouldin has picked up right where Harris left off. With Bouldin’s ability to snipe three-pointers on fast breaks, both teams rank in the nation’s top 10 in field goal percentage. St. Mary’s is also third in the country in free throw percentage, while the Zags are having their worst year at the line of the Mark Few era. With 0.007 points separating these two teams in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings, it should go down to the wire. The key difference in their records? St. Mary’s schedule is ranked 155th according to Jeff Sagarin, and the Zags have played Michigan State, Wisconsin, Duke, and Wake Forest. Look for Gonzaga to take this at home.
RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every week until Madness ensues.
Another week down, another Bubble Watch update, this time a day early…
ACC
Locks:Duke has rebounded nicely from their slip-up in Raleigh last Wednesday with two quality wins at Clemson and vs. Florida State. The Blue Devils appear destined to run the table at home and only have two difficult, yet winnable, road dates remaining at North Carolina and at Maryland. 11-5 in the ACC seems like a worse-case scenario for Duke, and even that record may be enough to win the league and garner a top-three seed in March.
Should be in:Wake Forest’s RPI has slowly but surely climbed into the 20-range heading into tonight’s important game at Georgia Tech. Even with a loss tonight, the Deacons next six ACC games (three road trips are at Virginia, Virginia Tech and NC State) are all very winnable. I wouldn’t completely eliminate Wake from the ACC title race if Ish Smith and Al-Farouq Aminu continue to play so well. Georgia Tech sits at a pedestrian 3-3 in the ACC but did defeat Duke and the Yellow Jackets have a chance to pick up another quality in-conference win tonight against Wake. Paul Hewitt’s team shouldn’t get too comfortable, though, with a challenging road slate still ahead. Florida State plays a crucial game at Boston College on Saturday. It’s a team that Noles should beat, but judging from their loss earlier in ACC play to NC State in Tallahassee and over the course of Leonard Hamilton’s coaching tenure, that doesn’t always equal victory. Lose to the Eagles and Florida State begins to trend towards the bubble.
On the bubble: Clemson still finds themselves on the right side of the bubble picture, but the Tigers are moving closer to the 9/10 seed line than 4/5 with their recent three-game losing skid. Luckily for Clemson, four of their next five are inside the friendly confines of Littlejohn Coliseum with their only road game at Virginia Tech. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Tigers reel off five consecutive in the win column here and firmly establish their bid. Maryland leads the ACC with a 4-1 mark but have benefited from a hospitable schedule. It becomes much more challenging right away for the Terps with two on the road at Clemson and Florida State. Split those two and the Terrapins remain in the field. The most crucial win of the week may have been North Carolina dispatching rival NC State in what could have been a disastrous outcome for the psyche of that basketball team. The Heels welcome Virginia to the Dean Dome next, but check out the next three: @Virginia Tech, @Maryland and vs. Duke. Frankly, neither 3-0 nor 0-3 would totally shock me.
Booker vital for the Tigers NCAA chances
On the fringe:Virginia Tech is going to have to win a lot of basketball games to overcome their #76 RPI and #270 SOS, two stats currently acting as a firm anchor on Tech’s NCAA hopes. Their next two roadies at Virginia and Miami both need to be won for the Hokies to squirm their way back into the field. It won’t be easy, though, as Virginia has knocked off Georgia Tech and Miami has beaten Wake Forest in their respective home buildings. Much like Virginia Tech, those teams desperately need wins and quickly.
Big East
Locks: The five locks at the top of the premiere conference in the land remain firmly entrenched in the field. This pack is led by Villanova at a sparkling 8-0 in the Big East. The reason why I favor Syracuse to win the league in the end is the clear scheduling advantage for the Orange. While the Wildcats have to travel to Georgetown, West Virginia, Pittsburgh and Syracuse, the Orange only must go to D.C. and their next most challenging road games are at fringe-NCAA teams Cincinnati and Louisville. Regardless, both are clearly locks and #1-seed contenders. West Virginia picked up a bounce-back win Saturday over Ohio State and, despite their point guard woes, appear destined for a top-three seed. They have two great opportunities ahead with Pitt and Villanova coming to Morgantown. Despite a two-loss week, Pittsburgh remains safe. After a game at rival West Virginia on February 3, Pitt doesn’t play another NCAA team on the road the rest of the way unless Notre Dame makes it, plus they have that win at Syracuse in their back pocket. Georgetown was thumped at Syracuse Monday, but they’re more than fine. Beating Duke on Saturday would be enormous as far as seeding and portfolios are concerned.
Should be in: Just when you think Connecticut is back, they have the ultimate letdown performance at Providence yesterday where shooting and turnovers woes re-emerged. Still, the Huskies have an RPI in the 20-range and have played the most difficult schedule in the nation. Connecticut also doesn’t have a true road win in their portfolio this season with their next opportunity coming February 1 at Louisville.
Jerome Dyson's maddening inconsistency has drawn the ire of his coach
On the bubble:Louisville beat Cincinnati in an important bubble duel Sunday, but the Bearcats were in my bracket that same night while the Cardinals were left out because Cincy has a better overall resume. In fact, that very win might have been the best to date for Louisville this season. They absolutely must beat Connecticut at home and avoid an upset bid at St. John’s to re-emerge in the bracket. It’s fair to pontificate that Cincinnati peaked at Maui and their collapse at St. John’s certainly stings, but the Bearcats still have a decent chance with a #49 RPI and a #29 SOS. Their rematch at Notre Dame on February 4 looms large. Seton Hall carried home wins over Pitt, Louisville and Cincinnati into the back end of my last bracket. If they can go 1-2 on their upcoming three-game swing through USF, Villanova and Pitt, the Pirates may be able to earn a bid with a favorable schedule the rest of the way.
On the fringe: Could Notre Dame be staring at 9-4 in the Big East when they travel to Louisville on February 17? It’s entirely possible with their next five games at Rutgers, vs. Cincinnati, vs. South Florida, at Seton Hall and vs. St. John’s. Even if they just stand at 8-5, that’s still 8-5 in the #1 RPI conference. Still, they finish with a difficult last five and the quality wins are not there, meaning it’ll be difficult for the Irish to make the tournament.
RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every Friday until Madness ensues.
You know we’re headed to the stretch run towards March Madness when Bubble Watch debuts here at Rush the Court. Let’s go through all six major conferences plus those non-BCS contenders to determine who’s safely in the field, who still has work to accomplish, who’s sitting firmly on the bubble and who needs to rack up the wins to be dancing when the brackets are determined. Without further ado:
ACC
Locks: Although the massive jumble in the middle of the ACC does include Duke, they are still a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Devils feature an RPI/SOS in the top ten and quality wins over Clemson, Arizona State, Connecticut and Wake Forest. Still, it has to be concerning for Coach K that it’s mid-January and his team is 0-3 in true road games.
Should be in: I’d be surprised if Clemson at 15-4 (3-2) and a #30 RPI didn’t make the field. After welcoming Duke into town Saturday night, the Tigers will have moved past the hardest portion of their ACC slate into a stretch of four of six at home with Maryland, Florida State, Miami and Virginia making a trip to Littlejohn Coliseum. Mixed in there is a trip to BC and a more difficult roadie at Virginia Tech. By definition of the phrase, Georgia Tech “should be in” given their talent level and quality wins in ACC play. But I’m weary given this team’s capabilities of playing down to their opponent. They’re helped strongly by an RPI and SOS in the top 30.
On the bubble:Wake Forest is looking more and more like an NCAA team with a #25 RPI. They also just survived the Duke/UNC road swing with a split while two wins- vs. Maryland in OT and at Gonzaga in December- could loom large as we head towards Selection Sunday. Maryland is still working to boost a lackluster RPI and lack any semblance of a signature win during non-conference play. They must take care of business against NC State and Miami at home before embarking on a Clemson/FSU road swing that should test their mettle. The win at Georgia Tech gave Florida State a nice boost in their first ACC game, but they promptly blew that by falling to NC State at home. The Seminoles only played one NCAA team (two if you include Florida) in non-conference play and was blown out against Ohio State (#117 overall SOS). They need to finish 10-8 in the ACC and gather another signature win over Duke, Clemson, North Carolina or Georgia Tech to feel comfortable. Speaking of the Tar Heels, I’m sure they’ll turn it around once Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller return. Still, at 12-7 (1-3) and an RPI in the 60’s, Roy Williams is starting to feel the heat. Lose at NC State next Wednesday and things could really collapse.
This season has been a headache for Roy Williams
On the fringe:Virginia is the feel-good story in the ACC in Tony Bennett’s first season, but I’d be shocked if the Cavaliers made the tournament. They lost out-of-conference to bottom feeders South Florida, Penn State, Auburn and Stanford and have benefited from a favorable first three games in ACC play. It’s going to take an 10-6 mark in the ACC to dance. Miami (FL) was quickly determined to be a fluke after compiling a lofty record on the back of a non-conference SOS in the 300’s. They were just swept by BC to fall to 1-4 in the ACC and need a gigantic turnaround for Frank Haith to avoid the hot seat.
Big East
Locks: Plenty of locks and elite teams at the top with Syracuse, Villanova, Georgetown, West Virginia and Pittsburgh all feeling comfortable. While the Florida and North Carolina wins during pre-Big East play look less and less impressive for Syracuse, they still boast the #1 RPI in the nation and an abundantly favorable conference slate the rest of the way with only one difficult road contest at Georgetown. I’d be stunned if the Orange are not a #1 seed come March. Villanova has the lone unblemished mark but still has to travel to Georgetown, West Virginia, Pittsburgh and Syracuse. A split should be enough for #1 seed contention. Georgetown picked up a huge victory at Pittsburgh behind Chris Wright this week. They have a chance to make inroads as a #2 seed if they can upset Syracuse and beat Duke at home. Pittsburgh’s incredible sweep of a Syracuse-Cincinnati-Connecticut road swing should prove invaluable in terms of seeding. West Virginia could pick up a nice resume-building win tomorrow with Evan Turner back for Ohio State.
Should be in: Aside from the five locks, there’s not much else to love about the Big East. Connecticut’s resume is strongly boosted by the #1 SOS in the nation. Still, unless Notre Dame makes the tournament, the Huskies still haven’t beaten a team that will be dancing in March. They have a golden opportunity tomorrow in Storrs against temporarily-top ranked Texas. Knocking off Texas would give Connecticut a signature win and move them closer to lock status with two tricky road games ahead against Providence and Louisville.
On the bubble: Speaking of the Cardinals, Rick Pitino’s team is looking more and more like a bubble squad with their loss at Seton Hall on Thursday. Louisville’s non-conference wins are even worse than UConn and the stench from the Charlotte/Western Carolina defeats still linger. Their #48 RPI is bubblicious with a crucial bubble game this Sunday against Cincinnati looming. Cincinnati at 13-6 (4-3) was one of my last teams in the field and the win over South Florida doesn’t change anything.
Samardo Samuels is the key for Louisville to earn a berth
On the fringe: Notre Dame has a stretch ahead where they could enter the field. Aside from a road game at Villanova, six of their next seven are very winnable with DePaul, Cincinnati, South Florida and St. John’s coming to South Bend and road games at Rutgers and Seton Hall. They have a chance here to make a push, although the weak non-conference SOS doesn’t help the cause. I wouldn’t count Seton Hall out, either. They could still get to 10-8 in the Big East which would put them right on the bubble come Big East Tournament time.
Saint Mary’s (2-1) and Portland (1-1), both with one loss in the WCC and needing a win to stay close to high-flying Gonzaga, square off on the Gaels’ intimate playground in Moraga tonight at 7 p.m. Pacific. Saint Mary’s needs to rebound from a deflating 89-82 home loss to the Zags Thursday night, while Portland needs to prove it can win consecutive tough games on the road after its 63-54 victory over San Diego the same night. This is a crucial early-season clash in the WCC, and RTC Live will once again be there to provide commentary and analysis on all of the action.
Elias Harris Introduces Himself to America/RTC Live. Gonzaga 89, St. Mary’s 82. We really hope you stayed up for this WCC tilt between the two titans of this league tonight. If you didn’t, you missed what someone less of a wordsmith than RTC might call a ‘coming-out party.’ Gonzaga’s Elias Harris not only had a career-high night in terms of scoring (31/13), but he also spent seemingly half of the game hanging from the McKeon Pavilion rims after throwing down a beyond-athletic dunk. Maybe it was the soft rims at the Moraga school, but each time Harris was doing chin-ups on their hoops, we thought the entire place might come down with him. St. Mary’s had the raucous crowd, the early three-pointers from Matt Dellavedova and Mickey McConnell, the late power game from Omar Samhan, and a four-point deficit with under a minute to go (plus the ball). But what the Gaels didn’t have at all tonight (and was clearly a concern of Randy Bennett’s after the game) was the ability to defend the Zags. GU shot a scorching 60% from the field and was +8 on the offensive glass, which means that Gonzaga’s percentage of scoring possessions was off the charts at over 71% for the game. You’re simply not going to be in a realistic position to win many games when you’re getting stops only three of every ten defensive trips. It’s a testament to how well Omar Samhan played in the second half (26 of his 31 came after the break) that SMC had a chance to win within the final few minutes. Gonzaga leaves Moraga with a 2-0 WCC record, but those two wins already represent what are likely its two toughest road games this season (@ Portland being the other). Even if Gonzaga drops two games the rest of the way, St. Mary’s would have to lose only one other game AND beat Gonzaga in Spokane to tie them for the regular season title. Good luck with that. As for Harris, he wasn’t a very highly recruited player coming from Germany, but he’s proving that once again Mark Few and his staff have a keen eye for talent somewhat off the beaten path. Tonight he appeared to be the Zags’ best player, and his 15/8 on 59% shooting this year puts him in elite company among freshmen this season.
Pac-10 Wrap. Rather than do an individual breakdown of each game in this crazy conference, since eight teams played tonight we’ll just do a wrapup paragraph tonight. The lesson in this year’s Pac-10: pick who you think will win the game… then pick the other team — there’s your winner. The Arizonas visited the Oregons tonight, and if you had Oregon getting destroyed (76-57) for the second straight game at home while Oregon State snuck past Arizona on a Lathen Wallace three with 1.1 seconds remaining, give yourself a pat on the back. In Washington, we had the NorCal teams visiting tonight, and if you had Stanford getting destroyed by UW (coming off three straight losses) and Cal winning a road game (!!!) at Wazzu, give yourself a full-on hug. Jerome Randle had a career-high 39 points, outdoing conference scoring leader Klay Thompson (18/6) in Pullman, while Quincy Pondexter dropped 27/10 on the Cardinal in Seattle. The Pac-10 standings now have Cal at 3-1, six teams with two losses, and three teams with three. Can we just set each team at 9-9 for the regular season and get on to the Pac-10 Tournament?
It’s already time for the first Gonzaga vs. St. Mary’s game that will establish conference supremacy in the WCC. For the past several seasons, SMC has set its sights squarely on the Zags with the knowledge that breaking through in the WCC would be the first step toward consistent national recognition for the tiny school from Moraga, California. The Gaels have gotten close, finishing second in the league (behind the Zags) in five of the last six seasons, including twice (2005 and 2008) where they finished a mere one game behind Gonzaga in the regular season standings. Last year was thought to be the year, as SMC held a working margin in the first half of the Spokane game when superstar Patty Mills went down with a wrist injury, effectively ending the team’s hopes to catch the Zags last season. There’s a similar buzz this year, though, even without the mercurial Mills running the show. With center Omar Samhan coming into his own as a dominant big man (21/11/3 blks), and three-point bombers Matthew Dellavedova (13/3/4 assts; 42% 3FG) and Mickey McConnell (13/2/6 assts; 53% 3FG) torching the nets if left open, Gonzaga’s defense — its worst since 2006-07 — is going to have its hands full tonight. The Zags are not the nine-time defending WCC regular season champs for nothing, though, and they have been known to step up in big road games a time or two under Mark Few’s direction. There will be a lot of pressure on Robert Sacre and Elias Harris to handle Samhan inside, but if they’re up to the task and Matt Bouldin (15/5/4 assts) gets his stroke going again (he averaged 17.3 PPG in three games against SMC last year), then we could be looking at another close one. The combined scoring of the last four games between these two teams in Moraga results in Gonzaga +1, as they have split the last four, all relatively close games. Join us tonight for another great one!
A little Friday night college hoops, anyone? RTC Live will be visiting a historic old gym tonight in an effort to see all the crumbling old beauties before they disappear when we’ll be at the University of San Francisco’s War Memorial Gymnasium for a WCC battle between St. Mary’s and San Francisco. Why is it historic? Well, for you young’uns out there, USF may not be relevant these days, but in the mid-50s with a couple of players by the names of Bill Russell and KC Jones, they were pretty much ridiculous. The Dons won the 1955 and 1956 NCAA titles including a streak of 55 consecutive victories over that span. Nowadays, things have changed, and USF has been relegated to a mid-major program with its ups and downs, but they’re usually good for an upset or two each year when a big-name comes to town and St. Mary’s just might fit the bill. SMC comes into tonight’s game at 13-2 (vs. 5-10 for USF), and Randy Bennett’s team is once again eyeing the WCC championship that starts and ends in Spokane. The Gaels can’t afford to drop games like this if they want to have a shot at the regular season championship. The two players to watch are Omar Samhan (21/11/3 blks) of St. Mary’s, one of the most efficient players in America, and Dior Lowhorn (19/6) of San Francisco, the two-time defending conference scoring leader and two-time first-team all-conference performer in the WCC. We hope you find some time tonight to join us for a little hoops action from the middle of San Francisco.
Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist. He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.
The biggest note: this is the most subjective bracket of the process. With RPI still evolving into a tool worth considering substantially, I had to construct this bracket primarily on 1) quality wins and bad losses in non-conference play, 2) non-conference SOS and 3) simple W-L record. Even conference RPI can’t be factored in yet because teams have played, at most, three conference games. With RPI rounding into form as January progresses, the bracket will switch from a more subjective process (had to use the eye test a few times, which I despise) to a more objective compilation.
The #1 and #2 seeds were fairly straightforward. Due to Syracuse tripping up at home to Pittsburgh Saturday, the process became much easier and the four undefeated teams remaining earned the #1 nod. Three Big East teams earned nods as a #2 seed, all with one loss: West Virginia, Villanova and Syracuse. Duke was the other obvious choice for the second line.
One of the more interesting cases was Ohio State. How much do I penalize them for the loss of Evan Turner? I was fairly harsh in the opening bracket following a discouraging defeat to Michigan and a blowout loss at Wisconsin. I’m fairly sure the Buckeyes will be moving further up the bracket when Turner is back in the fold a few weeks from now, but a #11 seed at 0-2 in the Big 10 and wins over California and Florida State seemed appropriate.
USC will not be included in any of my brackets this year. It’s a shame because they have strong computer numbers and are building a handful of quality wins including Tennessee and UNLV. Like the Pac-10 needed to be hurt any further.
Some notable snubs were Miami, Oregon and Saint Mary’s. The point is pretty straightforward: I’m not going to reward you for playing a soft schedule. Miami is 14-1 but has the #85 RPI and #328 SOS in the nation with only notable wins against Minnesota and South Carolina. Oregon may be 2-0 in the Pac-10 but they have some BAD losses and need to do more to find their way into the bracket. The win at Oregon is looking stronger for St. Mary’s, but they still need to do more.
Since we’re so early, I did factor in “quality” losses for some teams. For example, Dayton lost by under 10 to both Villanova and Kansas State (both top-10 teams) and by 2 at New Mexico (top-20 team). They deserve some credit for those close losses.
Since we’re early in conference play, I determined the automatic bids among undefeated squads by which team had the highest RPI. I figured I should stay consistent with this throughout the season.
Last Four In: Northwestern, Richmond, Missouri State, Vanderbilt.
Last Four Out: Oklahoma State, Miami (FL), Saint Mary’s, Oregon.
Automatic bids: Vermont, Temple, Duke, East Tennessee State, Kansas, West Virginia, Weber State, Radford, Purdue, Pacific, William & Mary, UAB, Butler, Cornell, Siena, Western Michigan, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Quinnipiac, Murray State, California, Army, Kentucky, Western Carolina, UT-San Antonio, Texas Southern, Oakland, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, Louisiana Tech.
Bids per conference: ACC (7), Big East (7), SEC (6), Big 12 (6), Big 10 (6), Mountain West (3), Atlantic-10 (3), Pac-10 (2), Missouri Valley (2).
If you’re an obsessive schedule-tracker like we are — and you sorta have to be in this business — you quickly realize the rhythms of game scheduling. It becomes more stark during the conference season when most schools play a regular schedule of two games per week (usually on the same days), but you can still see it in November and December based on general patterns of tv viewership, travel and holidays. By way of example, Mondays and Fridays are usually not very good nights for games, as most teams are either going into or coming out of a weekend game (usually on Saturday). Conversely, Tuesdays and Thursdays are often busy, with the penultimate day of the work week being preferred for many western-based teams. Wednesdays, the Hump Day, are often busy just because it’s the middle of the week and games on that day maximizes rest and practice time for students before the next one on the weekend. If you’re reading this site, none of this information will be new to you; you already inherently know it.
Is There a Basketball Under There? Why Yes, There Is.
So it’s a little odd that this week — Christmas week — a random Tuesday night will be the biggest game night of the entire slate of games this week (Mon-Sun). Most teams take time off for the holiday, allowing their players to spend some quality time at home if they’re close enough to travel and/or with friends and other teammates if they’re not. To that end, there are a grand total of zero games this Thursday and Friday, one game on Saturday (RTC Live will be at WVU-Seton Hall), and only eleven games on Sunday. Our point: if you want to satisfy your hoops jones, you’d best tune in tonight (91 games) and tomorrow (39 games) to cure the anxiety.
And what a schedule of games it is! Our little box of Nightly Nonsense listings wasn’t big enough to hold all of tonight’s goodies, so we will do you the service of listing the games you should be tracking along with us throughout the day and evening (yes, there are day games!) and into tomorrow. It may not be Christmas just yet, but the treats have come early this year. Settle in for your long winter’s nap with nonstop hoops over the next two days.
Christmas on December 22
3 pm – Nevada vs. BYU (ESPN360). This game, as part of the Las Vegas Classic, features a MWC/WAC matchup between two talented teams that could really use this RPI-increasing victory.
3 pm – Northeastern vs. St. Mary’s (ESPNU). This 10 am (local time) game from Hawaii wil be one of your few opportunities to watch SMC’s Omar Samhan, who is averaging 22/12/2 blks while shooting over 60% from the field this season.
5:30 pm – Tulsa vs. Nebraska. Tulsa has looked good this year, but they’ve played nine home games (all wins) and dropped their only game away from home (@ Missouri State). This neutral-site game in Las Vegas is a must-win if the Golden Hurricane want to position themselves for an at-large berth in March.
7 pm – #9 Michigan State @ #2 Texas (ESPN2). The Horns are plowing through teams to the tune of a 29-pt average margin of victory, but MSU has had their number the last three seasons (all neutral court wins, though).
7 pm – South Alabama @ #18 Florida (ESPN360). The Gators try to get off of a two-game losing streak with a home date against USA.
7 pm – Ohio @ Pittsburgh (ESPN360). These two top 35 defenses should deliver a close game that you probably won’t want to watch, so keep this one on in the background.
Samhan I Am. St. Mary’s 101, Portland State 80. Had St. Mary’s not lost to Vanderbilt by two points during Thanksgiving weekend, we’d probably be listing the Gaels as a ranked team and the name of Omar Samhan might be getting a little more publicity at this point. With tonight’s 61% shooting evening leading to another blowout win, St. Mary’s is currently 8-1 with solid road wins at Utah State and Oregon, and even though fellow WCCers San Diego and Portland were getting the early-season hype, it might be SMC as the team most likely to challenge Gonzaga as tops in the league again this year. The big reason is that Gonzaga has nobody like Omar Samhan, the 6′11 senior who dropped 31/17 tonight and is averaging 21/12/2 blks on 61% shooting for the year — his efficiency rating of 24.2 puts him in the neighborhood of some other players you may have heard of… namely Evan Turner, Luke Harangody, Aubrey Coleman, Quincy Pondexter and Manny Harris. Freshman guard Matthew Dellavedova is another player to watch on this team, as he’s averaging 14/3/4 assts and has a healthy 2:1 A/TO ratio. Don’t be alarmed with what we’re about to say, but those are actually better numbers than what Patty Mills put up as a rookie at St. Mary’s in 2008. The Gaels are definitely a team to watch as we head into the WCC this year.
Best Player You Don't Know (photo: Tod Fiemer)
Floriani Live. Rutgers 80, Rider 70 (OT). Ryan Thompson did not disappoint the nine or so NBA scouts in attendance. The Rider senior scored a game high 26 points while pulling down 8 rebounds. Rutgers adjusted and did a good job defending Thompson in the stretch and OT. “They (Rutgers) face guarded and denied him,” said Rider coach Tommy Dempsey. “Anytime he had the ball they had trouble staying in front of him.” Thompson shot 9 of 19 but forced only two of them and stayed within the framework of the offense. Another significant note for Rutgers: Mike Rosario scored 18 but was 5-17 from the floor. James Beatty, a junior guard, stepped up leading Rutgers with 21 points. Beatty was 6 of 8 beyond the arc and played some nice defense on Thompson in the stretch. “We recruited Beatty as a point but we knew he had several games in junior college where he knocked down about five treys. Tonight he had the looks, buried them and needs to do that.” Especially when Big East play starts for Rutgers just after the New Year.
Heading into an interesting Saturday of games, we’ve got a few dollops of knowledge that will help you navigate things. Keep in mind we’ll be doing our first weekend Boom Goes the Dynamite this afternoon, in addition to RTC Lives for Butler vs. Ohio State and the Wooden Classic this afternoon…
UNC’s Marcus Ginyard will be held out of today’s game against Presbyterian with pain in his foot. A UNC doctor was quick to say that this pain was unrelated to last year’s stress fracture that Ginyard suffered, but it is in the same foot. This is a ‘precautionary’ measure to keep Ginyard from fracturing the foot. UNC undoubtedly won’t need the defensive dynamo today, but against #2 Texas next Saturday? Yeah, probably want him in the lineup then.
Some Comings and Goings. Wake Forest junior guard Konner Tucker is leaving the school after seven games (he was JuCo transfer), and St. Mary’s fifth-year senior guard Wayne Hunter is out for the rest of the season after tearing his ACL in a game this week against Utah State. In terms of relative importance, the Hunter loss is much more significant, as he was averaging 12/3 for the season and was one of the best perimeter defenders for the Gaels. Tucker was only averaging 2.2 PPG in just over five minutes per contest.
Unless Notre Dame is interested, and they’re not, the only way this makes sense is if the Big Ten can poach another major conference football power. Missouri? Kentucky? West Virginia? Pittsburgh? Louisville? It’s fun to speculate about this, but from a hoops perspective we’d hate to see the Big East change at the top (you can send the bottom quarter to the A10 or America East for all we care).
Want to get ready for today’s games — Seth Davis, Gary Parrish and Jeff Goodman give us a pretty good rundown of what to watch this weekend.
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2010 ncaa tournament | Tagged: arinze onuaku, ashton gibbs, baylor, california, clemson, corey fisher, cornell, dasean butler, dashonte riley, duke, etsu, florida st, frank hassell, gonzaga, jamie dixon, jay wright, jeff foote, kentucky, kim english, marquette, mike montgomery, minnesota, missouri, montana, morgan st, ncaa tournament, new mexico, nolan smith, old dominion, omar samhan, quincy pondexter, randy bennett, scott drew, scottie reynolds, st mary's, temple, texas, tubby smith, villanova, wake forest, west virginia, wisconsin, wofford, xavier | 
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