ACC M5: 02.23.17 Edition

Posted by Matt Patton on February 23rd, 2017

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  1. Syracuse Post-Standard: Before I get started, I hope you caught that SyracuseDuke game last night. The big home win probably puts the Orange on the right side of the bubble for now (although this is far from assured), and John Gillon‘s contested three that banked through was the team’s second game-winner of the month. Duke only has its second half defense to blame for the loss. The Blue Devils played plenty well enough on offense, but allowing Syracuse to go a blistering 18-of-26 from the field in the second half was more than a good night on the glass could overcome. But back to the story at hand: Apparently an upset Syracuse fan called Georgia Tech head coach Josh Pastner to complain about fans chanting “air ball” at Gillon. Thankfully, Gillon’s 26-point, six-assist performance last night shows he wasn’t too impacted by the vitriol.
  2. Roanoke Times: Clemson may have sold its soul for a football championship (and its fans are likely at peace with that). After Tuesday night’s loss to Virginia Tech, the Tigers are now 1-7 in games decided by five p0ints or fewer in ACC play (they lost another game by six points). That gives Brad Brownell’s club a slight edge over Wake Forest in ranking lowest in ACC “Luck,” according to Ken Pomeroy (the Demon Deacons, by contrast, are 3-4 in ACC games decided by five points or fewer). If in fact Clemson still has its soul, that would imply some regression (or progression) to the mean, which could mean an exciting week in Brooklyn for the Tigers.
  3. Sports Illustrated: This is your annual reminder that the ACC will likely be replacing four Hall of Fame coaches in coming years, not to mention Miami’s Jim Larranaga. The only obvious choice is Jeff Capel almost certainly getting the chance to succeed Mike Krzyzweski at Duke (although given enough time, Chris Collins may have too much success at Northwestern to ignore). It remains to be seen whether North Carolina learned its lesson from hiring Matt Doherty, or whether the Tar Heel Way will take precedence over a surer pick. I don’t see the Tar Heels hiring Texas’ Shaka Smart, but Arizona’s Sean Miller would have a tough time saying no. Cincinnati’s Mick Cronin makes perfect sense at Louisville (and he’s criminally underrated nationally). Replacing Jim Boeheim at Syracuse looks simultaneously the easiest and most challenging. There’s a successor already in place (Mike Hopkins), but there’s been no evidence of any momentum to hand over the keys.
  4. Duke Basketball Report: Try to avoid the unnecessary aside about North Carolina’s academic scandal (the Raleigh News & Observer covered it better than any paper in the country and was relentless in uncovering new facets of the case). Other than that, I agree wholeheartedly with Al Featherston’s description of the NC State job. It’s a good but not elite job. Hiring Sidney Lowe (and the media narrative following Herb Sendek’s ousting) put the program in a really tough long-term spot. Mark Gottfried dug out of the hole but his team looked totally lost this year. Featherston’s best point is that a lot of luck goes into hiring a basketball coach. NC State could make a great hire (and that includes many people other than Archie Miller — UNC Wilmington’s Kevin Keatts and North Carolina Central’s Levelle Moton both come to mind). They could also make another hire that’s a band-aid, or worse.
  5. WRAL Sports Fan: Props to the ACC for ending the asinine process where anyone who contributed $15 could vote for postseason awards. That led to a huge advantage for North Carolina schools. Now each team will be represented by an equal number of people. In a league the size (both in terms of number of teams and geographic area) of the ACC, this makes the most sense.
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ACC Weekend Review: 02.20.17 Edition

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on February 20th, 2017

Offense ruled on Saturday with one notable exception. In the biggest game of the weekend, Virginia managed only 41 points as North Carolina dominated the Cavaliers in Chapel Hill. Earlier that day, two other games produced four of the top eight offensive performances in ACC play this season, as Duke edged Wake Forest, 99-94, and Louisville outlasted Virginia Tech, 94-90. In other weekend action, Florida State continued its road woes in falling by 14 points at Pittsburgh, and Georgia Tech grabbed another big home win by holding off Syracuse. Here are the highlights of the weekend around the ACC.

Justin Jackson scored 20 points in North Carolina’s impressive win over Virginia. (Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports)

  • Best Win: No one is surprised that North Carolina defeated Virginia on Saturday night — after all, the Tar Heels have yet to lose in the Smith Center this season. What was shocking, though, is how easily they dispatched a team that really never gets blown out. The 24-point loss represents the only time that Virginia has been defeated by more than 12 points in the last four years of conference play. Justin Jackson shredded the vaunted Virginia defense for 18 of his 20 points in the first half, continuing a string of amazing consistency in ACC action where he has averaged 19.6 PPG with only one outing topping 22 points. The Tar Heels won with defense and rebounding this weekend, holding the Cavaliers to just 27.8 percent shooting and finishing with a +18 edge on the boards.

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This Weekend in the ACC: February 18

Posted by Mick McDonald on February 18th, 2017

Here are a few things to keep your eye on around the ACC this weekend (all times Eastern):

Saturday, 12:00 PM: Clemson (14-11, 4-9) at Miami (17-8, 7-6) — This is an important game between two ACC bubble teams. The Tigers enter the weekend just 4-9 in conference play, but given a strong performance in non-conference action combined with a weak bubble nationally, they can probably sneak into the NCAA Tournament with an 8-10 league record. That means winning two of their three tricky remaining games (they also visit Virginia Tech and host Florida State), starting with Miami this weekend. The Hurricanes will be without starting point guard Ja’Quan Newton for the second straight game as he serves a three-game suspension, but Jim Larranaga‘s club should have enough defensive length to handle Clemson star Jaron Blossomgame. The key in this contest will be how, without the services of Newton, Miami chooses to defend the Tigers’ three-pronged backcourt attack of Shelton Mitchell, Avery Holmes and Marcquise Reed.

Jayson Tatum has led the Blue Devils turnaround. Can he now lead them back to the Final Four? (Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

Saturday, 1:00 PM: Wake Forest (15-11, 6-8) at Duke (21-5, 9-4) — Duke’s current six-game winning streak has renewed discussion of the Blue Devils as the ACC favorite. Freshman Jayson Tatum is a big reason why — the versatile forward is averaging 15.8 points and 8.2 rebounds per game while shooting 52 percent from three-point range during those six games. Playing mostly as a small four, Tatum is a match-up nightmare who has shown he can make clutch jump shots when Duke needs them. Look for Tatum to have a monster afternoon, as Wake Forest does not have a good defensive option to counter his quickness on the perimeter. Read the rest of this entry »

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Inside the ACC Numbers: Volume V

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on February 17th, 2017

Here is the latest edition of our weekly review of the current ACC standings and team performances where we focus on which teams are playing better or worse than their records indicate. Each week we delve into advanced metrics to reveal a few interesting teams, player statistics, and trends. This week we will compare how ACC teams defend the three-point line. Finally, we forecast how the final ACC standings may look given current efficiency margins, and what that means for teams’ postseason aspirations.

Note: All data is current for games played through Wednesday, February 15.

Current Standings

ACC teams continue to be bunched close together at the top of the standings as well as in efficiency margins — the schools that have played easier conference schedules look better in points per possession. Things are about to even out with respect to schedule difficulty, however, among the league’s top six squads. Here’s what each of those schools has remaining against one another:

  • North Carolina (4 games) – Virginia, Louisville, @ Virginia, Duke
  • Louisville (2) – @ North Carolina, Notre Dame
  • Duke (2) – Florida State, @ North Carolina
  • Virginia (2) – @ North Carolina, North Carolina
  • Florida State (1) – @ Duke
  • Notre Dame (1) – @ Louisville

North Carolina clearly has the toughest remaining slate, but at least three of those four difficult contests will come in the Smith Center where the Tar Heels have yet to taste defeat this season. Florida State and Notre Dame have the easiest closing batch of games, with just one each against the rest of the top tier. According to KenPom, North Carolina’s conference schedule has been about four points per game easier than those faced by the Seminoles and Irish. That gap is about to shrink considerably, and by year end we would expect ACC strength of schedule to essentially even out among the top six contenders. Read the rest of this entry »

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ACC Weekend Review: 02.13.17 Edition

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on February 13th, 2017

Saturday was a day for home cooking in the ACC as all six road teams went down to defeat. In the only meeting between top-half teams, Notre Dame ended Florida State’s three-game winning streak. In other action, Louisville rallied late to beat Miami, Syracuse lost at Pittsburgh in a payback game, and Duke held off Clemson on the game’s final possession. The best game of the weekend came Sunday night as Virginia Tech rallied from 14-point halftime deficit to beat Virginia in a two-overtime thriller. Here are the highlights from the weekend around the ACC.

Mike Brey had a lot of positive things to discuss after Notre Dame’s impressive win over Florida State. (espn.com)

  • Best Win I: After Notre Dame’s 84-72 win over Florida State, Irish head coach Mike Brey noted: “That was probably the best we’ve played in league play on both ends of the floor.” Considering that the Seminoles had won their previous three games by an average margin of 33.0 PPG, it’s difficult to find fault with Brey’s statement. The Irish did a great job on the boards (+7) against the taller Seminoles and used superb foul shooting to maintain a comfortable margin throughout the game. Notre Dame converted 19 of its 21 attempts from the stripe while Florida State only made 7-of-22 (31.8%)

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This Weekend in the ACC: February 11

Posted by Mick McDonald on February 11th, 2017

Here are a few things to keep your eye on around the ACC this weekend (all times Eastern).

Saturday, 1:00 PM: Clemson (13-10, 3-8 ACC) at Duke (19-5, 7-4 ACC) Someone call Kenny Loggins, because the Tigers have officially entered the Danger Zone. After losing at the buzzer to Syracuse to suffer yet another heart-breaking defeat at home, Clemson’s NCAA Tournament hopes are in big, big trouble. Sometimes you can pinpoint a specific reason why a team is struggling, but sometimes losing a handful of close games is nothing more than just bad luck. In Clemson’s six ACC games that have fallen within a five-point window, the Tigers are just 1-5. It’s difficult to imagine that anything less than a 5-2 finish will be good enough for Clemson to make a realistic run at the NCAA Tournament, and the immediate road ahead is filled with difficulty. Including today’s trip to Cameron Indoor Stadium, three of the Tigers next four games are on the road against NCAA Tournament-quality teams.

Can Quentin Snider’s return to the Louisville lineup lead them to an ACC Championship? (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Saturday, 2:00 PM: Miami (16-7, 6-5) at Louisville (19-5, 7-4) This is an important game for both Louisville and Miami, but for very different reasons. The Hurricanes have won four of their last five contests and appear to be trending on the right side of the bubble — a road win over Louisville would do wonders for their Tournament resume. As for the Cardinals, point guard Quentin Snider is expected back in the lineup after missing six games with a hip injury. The junior was averaging 14.8 points and 5.3 assists per game over the last four games prior to his injury, so for a team with limited offensive capabilities, getting a healthy Snider back is incredibly important for the prospects of a championship season for Rick Pitino.

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Inside the ACC Numbers: Volume IV

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on February 10th, 2017

Here is the latest edition of our weekly review of the current ACC standings and team performances where we focus on which teams are playing better or worse than their records indicate. Each week we delve into advanced metrics to reveal a few interesting teams, player statistics and trends. This week we will compare some ACC player usage rates with offensive efficiency, seeing where some teams might benefit from a shift in possessions. Finally, we forecast how the final ACC standings may look given current efficiency margins, and what that means for teams’ postseason aspirations.

Note: All data is current for games played through Wednesday, February 8.

Current Standings

Syracuse‘s rise up the league standings is the story of the week. Jim Boeheim‘s club has now won five straight games by 10 points or fewer. The Orange’s close game effectiveness is why their record outshines a relatively low efficiency margin. For similar reasons, North Carolina continues to top the league standings despite trailing Louisville and Virginia in per possession performance. Florida State‘s efficiency margin now lines up nicely with its record after blasting its last three opponents by an average of 30 points per game.

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ACC M5: 02.09.17 Edition

Posted by Matt Patton on February 9th, 2017

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  1. Louisville Courier-Journal: Arguably the ACC’s best team may be about to get a lot better. The undermanned result against Virginia (which has always played kryptonite to Rick Pitino’s teams) aside, Louisville‘s Quentin Snider has been cleared to practice. There’s still no concrete timeline on his return to game action, but the Cardinals are a much scarier offensive team with Snider on the floor — especially since Tony Hicks broke his hand.
  2. ACC Sports: While the world outside is chaotic, a well-worn (at least by Jon Rothstein) phrase still applies. Death. Taxes. And NC State‘s coach finding a warm seat after failing to meet expectations. Mark Gottfried  — someone who does not have a track record of sustained coaching excellence — was a hire in Raleigh that always came with an expiration date. And that’s why a season where the Wolfpack have plenty of talent but few quality wins to show for it is so important. The most damning part of NC State’s play this year hasn’t been its record; rather, it’s been the occasional appearance of quitting. Many times that has meant Dennis Smith playing his own game; sometimes it’s been lukewarm moral victory talk from Gottfried after an embarrassing loss; and other times it’s been a veteran player getting left behind on an important road trip. Gottfried has earned another chance because he’s shown considerable success during his tenure with the Wolfpack, but fans are right to worry that this season’s disappointment fits very well with his career pattern.
  3. South Florida Sun-Sentinel: Thanks to a win against Virginia Tech, Miami is probably on the right side of the bubble for now. Unfortunately for the Hurricanes, their closing ACC schedule makes achieving .500 in conference play look like an uphill battle. A trio of away games at Louisville, Virginia and Florida State are nearly guaranteed losses; a home game against Duke and a road trip to Virginia Tech certainly won’t be cake walks either. Without a legitimate non-conference win to hang its hat on, Miami will likely need a decent showing in Brooklyn to feel secure on Selection Sunday. Jim Larranaga is right to point out that youth is his team’s biggest hurdle, but the flashes his team has already shown should frighten ACC opponents about the Hurricanes’ future.
  4. Raleigh News & Observer: Roy Williams was all class when talking about Grayson Allen before tonight’s battle between Duke and North Carolina, describing the attention Allen has gotten as “way, way out of proportion.” And he’s right. Of course, Duke brought some of this on Allen because it never suspended him last season and his “indefinite” suspension earlier this year was for only one game. But ESPN‘s coverage of Allen has bordered on farcical, perhaps topped by Michelle Beadle calling for an opponent to knock him out. Here’s hoping tonight’s game is good enough to outshine the controversy.
  5. The Pitt News: The eight-game losing streak is dead! Pittsburgh finally notched its second ACC win (the Panthers beating Virginia will never make sense) thanks to playing an outmatched Boston College.

EXTRA: Get ready.

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Media Timeout: If It Bleeds, It Leads – Especially If It’s Duke

Posted by Will Tucker on February 7th, 2017

College basketball places huge emphasis on individual games — showdowns between top-ranked teams, annual rivalry clashes, single-elimination tournaments — but it’s important from time to time to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. The Media Timeout considers how fans and journalists watch, follow and talk about the sport.


For the second time in as many seasons, Duke entered February with five or more losses. Four of those have come in conference play, where Duke sits in the middle of the ACC log jam. What began as a National Title march went way off course over the winter break. First, the Blue Devils lost to Virginia Tech for the first time since 2011, with their best player riding the pine after losing his captaincy. Then they lost head coach Mike Krzyzewski to back surgery and a lengthy recovery. Then they lost access to their own locker room after falling to NC State in Cameron Indoor Stadium for the first time since 1995.

Jeff Capel III

Assistant Jeff Capel presided over a rocky 4-3 stretch in Mike Krzyzewski’s absence (Mark Dolejs/USA TODAY Sports)

It’s safe to say Duke has staunched the bleeding after winning back-to-back ACC road games and escaping last-place Pitsburgh over the weekend with Krzyzewski back on the bench. But with plenty of questions remaining ahead of a date with North Carolina this week, it’s also too early to claim that the Blue Devils have righted the ship. In spite of Duke’s undistinguished resume and erratic play, the preseason #1 team remains a fixture in national headlines and ESPN segments. Why? The obvious answer is Grayson Allen, the embattled preseason Player of the Year pick whose volatile play and widespread criticism has delighted those who can’t stand his petulant and, at times, dangerous behavior on the court. But Allen obviously isn’t the first high-profile college player to behave badly, and the gleeful spectacle around his slow unravelling speaks to greater forces at play. Read the rest of this entry »

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ACC M5: 02.07.17 Edition

Posted by Matt Patton on February 7th, 2017

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  1. Syracuse Post Standard: Apparently (and unsurprisingly, really) Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski called Jim Boeheim to congratulate him on his 899th* win (*just kidding, he has 1,000 wins). But more important than his USA Basketball colleague was the reception that Boeheim received from Orange fans. I’m a little worried, though, that he NCAA’s sanctioning of Boeheim will mean that he and Krzyzewski retire sooner than if there was still a reasonable chance of the former catching the latter.
  2. Louisville Courier-Journal: Louisville probably would have lost to Virginia last night regardless of their presence, but the absences of Mangok Mathiang and Deng Adel made their odds even lower. The real story here, though, was Rick Pitino‘s reaction when asked about Mathiang’s missing rebounding. After a standard graciousness in losing interview, Pitino then sniped: “I don’t even… Don’t mention his name to me.” Then he ended the interview. It’s certainly possible that Pitino was simply fed up with reporters at that point, but it’s more likely he’s livid with his captain for violating curfew. Pitino needs to strike the right balance, though, because the Cardinals have a chance to cut down some postseason nets if they can get reasonably healthy.
  3. Raleigh News & Observer: Even for a Mark Gottfried team, NC State‘s defense is atrocious. It’s unfortunate that StatBroadcast no longer exists, as it would be interesting to see non-adjusted efficiency ratings for the Wolfpack. The saddest part of this analysis is that NC State isn’t even the least efficient team in the ACC in conference play. That honor goes to Pittsburgh, which has allowed its conference opponents to shoot 42.5 percent from three and 53.7 percent from inside the arc. Either way, expect Gottfried hot seat chatter to reach fever pitch if this team doesn’t turn things around very quickly.
  4. Orlando Sentinel: My goodness, Florida State put the beatdown on Clemson this weekend. The 48-point victory was so lopsided that the Tigers’ FanSided blog went on a rant about needing better recruiting. I agree fully with the statement that head coach Brad Brownell needs to recruit more talent — that said, the question with this particular coach was always going to be about his ability to attract talent. The Clemson program, when viewed through an impossibly optimistic lens, looks like a sleeping giant. They have plenty of money and national publicity (with even more coming after the CFP National Championship); and they have an awesome, intimate basketball arena. But viewed more realistically, Clemson is awful more often than it is good. It’s a football school, through and through.
  5. Slap the Sign: This article is more than a little dramatic. Notre Dame certainly didn’t have a very good week, but the Irish are a long way from missing the NCAA Tournament. They rank among the top 30 in projected RPI, among the top 30 in KenPom, and are a consensus #6 seed in Bracket Matrix. Notre Dame can’t continue on its current path (1-5 in their last six games), but there’s no reason to think the Irish will either. Against Florida State and at Louisville will be really tough games, but the remaining five should all be wins (with the possible exception of NC State in Raleigh).
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