Morning Five: 09.19.16 Edition

Posted by nvr1983 on September 19th, 2016

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  1. The NCAA gets a lot of criticism for a lot of things (often warranted), but their decision to pull seven championship events out of North Carolina during the 2016-17 championship season in response to the HB2 law seems to be widely applauded in the mainstream media. While some have been critical of the NCAA for making this decision against the state of North Carolina, the NCAA did come out with a clear list of reasons for their decision. It is also worth nothing that North Carolina is not the only state to have faced a ban by the NCAA for non-NCAA-related issues (the state of South Carolina was briefly banned from hosting championship events because of its use of the Confederate flag). For their part, coaches and administrators from several schools in the state including Duke and North Carolina have come out in support of the NCAA’s decision.
  2. With the NCAA joining the NBA, which decided to move the 2017 All-Star Game in response on to HB2, the ACC also decided to move its neutral-site championship events from North Carolina for the 2016-17 season as well. Although it would be easy to take a shot at the ACC for making a move only after the NBA and NCAA did it is worth noting how significant the move is since the ACC is headquartered and was founded in North Carolina. The move isn’t that significant for basketball this year as the ACC Tournament is going to be held in Brooklyn, but among other things it does force the ACC to move its football title game (scheduled for the first weekend in December) out of Charlotte to a site that has not been announced yet.
  3. We figured that after George Washington did not do anything in July following allegations of verbal abuse against Mike Lonergan by some of his former players (refuted by other former players) we had heard the end of that issue for the foreseeable future. It turns out we were wrong as reports surfaced on Friday night that Lonergan had been fired by the school. Given the details surrounding Lonergan’s reported abuse and his disdain for athletic director Patrick Nero it should be no surprise that Lonergan will be challenging his dismissal. We still are not sure what led the school to dismiss Lonergan on a Friday night in September, but it certain puts the as yet unnamed interim coach in a very difficult spot.
  4. Although Miami lost quite a few players to graduation this past season, we expected Miami to have a solid team this season thanks to what might be the best recruiting class the program has ever had. Unfortunately for the Hurricanes, Dewan Huell, one of the most prominent pieces in that class, was arrested on misdemeanor battery charges last week. According to police reports, Huell, a 6’11” McDonald’s All-American, attacked a man who he found in a closet with his ex-girlfriend after Huell went to her apartment uninvited. Assuming this is Huell’s first such incident we doubt that he will get more than a slap on the wrist with what has been released.
  5. Davidson is best known for Steph Curry playing college basketball there (and that is unlikely to change any time soon), but it has also become a well-known program internationally thanks to Bob McKillop and his recruitment of foreign players. As Seth Davis point out, the fact that Davidson will have players from seven different countries on its roster this season is the result of years of dedication by McKillop. It is a rather interesting strategy and one that is more likely to pay dividends for McKillop than if he were to hope to have the next Curry fall into his lap.
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ACC Way Too Early Power Rankings: Part II

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on April 8th, 2016

Yesterday we presented our projected order of finish next season for the bottom third of the ACC; today we will take a look at the upper two-thirds. The truth is that not all that much appears poised to change. Most of the contenders from this season should expect to be contenders again next season, and most of the teams that struggled are likely to do so again. However, one squad should enter the 2016-17 season as a clear favorite. With another top-ranked recruiting class and the return of several key players, Duke will be the conventional choice to win the ACC and compete for the national title next season. The ACC should also have three other teams that will rank among the top-15 nationally. After the top four, the next six teams could be placed in almost any order — the race should once again be that tight in the middle of the league. Here’s our top 10 as we look ahead to the 2016-17 season.

1) Duke

Grayson Allen led the way for Duke with 29 points. (Credit: Getty Images/ Jim Rogash)

Grayson Allen returns to a loaded Duke squad that will be the favorite to win the ACC in 2016-17. (Credit: Getty Images/ Jim Rogash)

  • Key Losses: Brandon Ingram, Marshall Plumlee
  • Key Additions: Amile Jefferson (RS-Injury), Harry Giles, Jayson Tatum, Frank Jackson
  • Nutshell: To say the Blue Devils will be loaded next season may be an understatement. The question will be whether Mike Krzyzewski can find sufficient chemistry between talented newcomers and veterans like when his team cut down the nets in Indianapolis in 2014-15. He hasn’t had this kind of depth in quite a while, but perhaps Coach K’s experience in managing minutes for his U.S. National Team this summer at the Brazil Olympics will be good training.

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ACC Way Too Early Power Rankings: Part I

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on April 7th, 2016

After a pair of impressive performances in the NCAA Tournament over the last two years, how will the ACC measure up next season? Based on what we know to this point, it looks like 2016-17 could be another very strong year for the league. Some roster adjustments — transfers and the like — will naturally occur between now and October; and a new NCAA policy allowing college players until May 25 to declare for the NBA Draft is likely to impact a few rosters as well. Today we list our bottom five teams heading into next season; tomorrow we will reveal our top 10. To get started, here is how the 15 ACC teams finished this season, ranked in order of their final KenPom rating.

Final Stand

Most of this season’s lowest-rated teams are projected as improved next year, while several schools near the top may drop off slightly. That means we should once again expect a logjam in the middle of the league standings. The following predictions assume the return of the following players who have declared for the NBA Draft but will more than likely be back.

  • Jaron Blossomgame, Clemson
  • Xavier Rathan-Mayes, Florida State
  • Chinanu Onuaku, Louisville
  • Abdul-Malik Abu, N.C. State

On to the 2016-17 way too early power rankings:

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NCAA Regional Reset: South Region

Posted by Tommy Lemoine on March 21st, 2016

Rush the Court will be providing wall-to-wall coverage of each of the NCAA Tournament from each of the 13 sites this year. Follow our NCAA Tourney specific Twitter accounts at @RTCEastregion, @RTCMWregion,@RTCSouthregion and @RTCWestregion.

New Favorite: #1 Kansas (32-4). Meet the new favorite, same as the old favorite. Kansas did nothing over the weekend to diminish its stature as the #1 overall seed and clear Final Four favorite out of the South Region, dropping 105 points on Austin Peay on Thursday before handing Kevin Ollie his first NCAA Tournament loss two days later. In that contest, a 73-61 victory over #9 seed Connecticut, the final margin didn’t even do the Jayhawks justice; Bill Self’s bunch led by 20 points at the half and limited the Huskies to just 27.5 percent two-point shooting for the game. The defense has been sharp, focus doesn’t seem to be an issue and Perry Ellis is playing Most Outstanding Player-level basketball (21.0 PPG, 15-of-21 FG). Even with Maryland and (possibly) Villanova looming next weekend, it would be silly to consider anyone else as the favorite to reach Houston out of this region.

Wayne Selden and the Jayhawks look better than ever. (Associated Press)

Wayne Selden and the Jayhawks look better than ever. (Associated Press)

Horse of Darkness: #3 Miami (27-7). Can we really designate a #3 seed as a dark horse? In this case, yes – the Hurricanes were actually underdogs against #11 seed Wichita State on Saturday, and their hopes seemed grim after coughing away a big first half lead. But Miami (FL), led by point guard Angel Rodriguez, came up with enough big shots to hold off the MVC champs, and now stands just two wins away from its first Final Four appearance in program history. Despite finishing tied for second in the ACC this season, Jim Larranaga’s experienced group was not the subject of much pre-NCAA Tournament chatter. That will change if the Hurricanes take down Villanova on Thursday.

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Rushed Reactions: #3 Miami 65, #11 Wichita State 57

Posted by Chris Stone on March 19th, 2016

Rush the Court will be providing wall-to-wall coverage of each of the NCAA Tournament from each of the 13 sites this year. Follow our NCAA Tourney specific Twitter accounts at @RTCEastregion, @RTCMWregion,@RTCSouthregion and @RTCWestregion.

Three Key Takeaways:

Miami's Angel Rodriguez Led His Team to the Sweet Sixteen (USA Today Images)

Miami’s Angel Rodriguez Led His Team to the Sweet Sixteen (USA Today Images)

  1. The Shockers are gritty and tough, but so is Miami. After the Hurricanes jumped out to an early 27-6 first half lead, Wichita State fought back using offensive rebounding and turnovers to take a one-point lead on a Ron Baker three-pointer with 10:26 remaining. It was what we’ve come to expect from a Wichita State team that is never completely out of it. Miami’s response, though, was noteworthy. The Hurricanes could have wilted under the pressure, but they held strong behind impressive performances from Sheldon McClellan (18 points) and Davon Reed (10 points).
  2. Angel Rodriguez went from Hurricane to drizzle to Hurricane. Rodriguez started the game on fire for Miami, scoring 16 points in the first 10 minutes without missing a shot. But then things turned for the worse. As the Shockers made their eventual comeback, Rodriguez was nowhere to be found. He didn’t attempt a shot for the rest of the first half and didn’t make another field goal until there was just 2:05 left in the game. During that drought he also committed five turnovers, but he woke up to close out the game, scoring the Hurricanes’ final 10 points (including a dagger three to push the lead to seven). This performance only reinforces the idea that a good Angel Rodriguez is the Hurricanes’ most important factor this March.
  3. Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker, it’s been a pleasure. The Shockers’ two senior guards have been college basketball mainstays for the past four seasons, helping Wichita State to a Final Four, an undefeated regular season and another Sweet Sixteen. Throughout the weekend, it’s been clear that opposing coaches and players hold VanVleet and Baker in high regard because of how they play the game. What’s next for the two guards is uncertain, but their time at Wichita State sure was fun while it lasted.

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Rushed Reactions: #3 Miami 79, #14 Buffalo 72

Posted by Chris Stone on March 17th, 2016

Rush the Court will be providing wall-to-wall coverage of each of the NCAA Tournament from each of the 13 sites this year. Follow our NCAA Tourney specific Twitter accounts at @RTCEastregion, @RTCMWregion,@RTCSouthregion and @RTCWestregion.

Three Key Takeaways:

Miami's Sheldon McClellan finishes a dunk in the first half. (Credit: Charles Krupa/AP)

Miami’s Sheldon McClellan finishes a dunk in the first half. (Credit: Charles Krupa/AP)

  1. Buffalo’s Lamonte Bearden should walk away with his head held high. On Wednesday, Bearden talked briefly about his struggles and the disappointment of last year’s NCAA Tournament loss to West Virginia. He tallied just eight points and committed seven turnovers a year ago, but today he delivered a mature performance in defeat, scoring 19 points along with only four turnovers. Bearden is only a sophomore and the Bulls should return four starters from this year’s team, so don’t be surprised if you hear his name again at future NCAA Tournaments down the line.
  2. Miami’s length is a great defensive asset. The Hurricanes rank 25th in the country in effective height (a statistic that measures a team’s size per minute played), which makes them one of the longest rotations on the country. That length can be really effective on the defensive end, as shown by Miami holding the Bulls to 39.4 percent shooting from two-point range (with Kamari Murphy registering four blocks). If they stay engaged, Miami is a very effective defensive team.
  3. A consistent Angel Rodriguez is key to Miami’s success. At his best, Miami’s point guard is a darting slasher who operates the pick-and-roll with precise passing and creative finishes at the rim. At his worst, Rodriguez is an inefficient scorer who turns the ball over too often. He showed flashes of both against Buffalo this evening, finishing with 24 points (many on late free throws) on 6-of-15 shooting and three turnovers. For Miami to make a run to subsequent weekends, it will need Rodriguez at his best to facilitate one of the country’s top offenses. If he’s not, the Hurricanes might have to take their talents back to South Beach a bit earlier than they’d hoped.

Star Of The Game: Sheldon McClellan. Miami’s leading scorer delivered big once again, scoring 20 points to lead the ‘Canes to victory. While McClellan didn’t make any outside shots in this game, he showed off an impressive slashing game that has helped him climb up NBA Draft boards.

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NCAA Tournament Instareaction: ACC

Posted by Matt Patton on March 13th, 2016

The ACC got seven bids to the NCAA Tournament. While not a huge surprise, Syracuse was very, very fortunate to earn an at-large bid. Additionally, Roy Williams ended up correctly predicting that both North Carolina and Virginia would wind up on the top seed line. Here are some quick best- and worst-case scenarios for the ACC teams in the field.

North Carolina celebrates winning the championship game of the 2016 New York Life ACC Tournament in Washington, DC, Saturday, March 12, 2016. (Photo by Liz Condo, theACC.com)

North Carolina Celebrated Another ACC Tournament Title Yesterday. (Photo by Liz Condo, theACC.com)

North Carolina (#1 East): The Tar Heels were the second overall seed, which shows how much the committee respects winning both the regular season and conference tournament titles (and perhaps also considered the time Marcus Paige missed from injury). That means a pair of opening round games in Raleigh, but the bad news for North Carolina fans is that the #4 and #5 seeds in the region (Kentucky and Indiana) are both grossly underseeded. It almost guarantees a challenging Sweet Sixteen game in Philadelphia.

  • Best Case: The Tar Heels build on their recent momentum and win the National Championship.
  • Worst Case: North Carolina’s Sweet Sixteen opponent is firing on all cylinders from behind the arc and sends the Tar Heels packing.

Virginia (#1 Midwest): In another surprise twist, Virginia was a #1 seed and the third overall (the committee must have watched the ACC Tournament!) with a trip to Raleigh on tap for the first weekend. The Cavaliers have a great chance to make it to the regional in Chicago, but #5 Purdue could be a very challenging Sweet Sixteen opponent. The rest of the bracket is favorable with one glaring exception: #2 seed Michigan State. The Spartans will be favored to meet Virginia in the Elite Eight and have ended Virginia’s postseason in each of the past two seasons.

  • Best Case: Virginia finally breaks through and silences the doubters with the school’s first National Championship.
  • Worst Case: Virginia, worn out by an incredibly talented Purdue team, is destroyed by the Spartans (leaving Tony Bennett thrilled that he opted to not go to the Big Ten).

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Selection Sunday Outlook for ACC Teams

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on March 13th, 2016

A bunch of questions will be answered later this evening when the Selection Committee announces the 2016 NCAA Tournament field. From an ACC viewpoint, one of the big ones will be answered early in the Selection Show – did both league heavyweights (Virginia and North Carolina) earn #1 seeds? After the top seeds are announced and the rest of the bracket is revealed, ACC intrigue will shift towards the bubble, as Syracuse fans will be nervously watching to see if their team made the cut. With a special focus on those two situations, here’s a predictive peek at what Selection Sunday will hold for the ACC.

Who’s Number One?

Roy Williams and Tony Bennett each hopes they've earned a #1 Seed in the 2016 NCAA Tournament. (Grant Halverson / Getty Images)

Roy Williams and Tony Bennett each hope that their teams have earned a #1 Seed in the 2016 NCAA Tournament. (Grant Halverson / Getty Images)

  • North Carolina (28-6) does not have the profile traditionally befitting  a #1 seed (5-5 versus the RPI top 50), but the Tar Heels may have earned it with its performance over the weekend in Washington, DC. They say that the committee ignores conference records in leagues with unbalanced schedules, so the Tar Heels’ claim of winning both the regular season and tournament championships in the ACC shouldn’t guarantee a top line spot (see: Miami’s #2 seed after winning both crowns in 2013). But if the eye test is brought into play (and how can it not be?), there may have been no team in the country that looked as deserving as Roy Williams’ group. With that small boost from the eye test, we think North Carolina has done enough to warrant the second or third #1 seed, which means the Tar Heels will be sent to the East Region. That would give them a path through Raleigh (First/Second rounds) followed by Philadelphia — the easiest possible road. The other contenders for top seeds in the East — Virginia and Villanova — both stumbled in conference tournament finals yesterday. North Carolina is now ahead of both of those teams in the pecking order for preferred locations.
  • Virginia (26-7) may have a resume better than any team in the country save Kansas. Despite an ACC Championship game loss to North Carolina, the Cavaliers have an impressive total of five wins over RPI top 10 teams. They have four losses to teams outside the RPI top 50, but all were close road defeats to conference foes. After the results of Saturday’s league championships, a reasonable ordering of #1 seed contenders might look like this: Kansas, North Carolina, Oregon, Virginia. As the fourth #1 seed, Tony Bennett’s team would likely be sent to the South Region (Louisville regional), but that would remain the case only if Michigan State fails to win the Big Ten championship this afternoon. If the Spartans win today, we expect Virginia to end up as the South’s #2 seed, a possibility that could mean the Cavaliers are placed in the same region with Michigan State, their March nemesis — remember that Tom Izzo’s team has knocked Virginia out of the last two NCAA Tournaments. Either way, Virginia should be assured of joining North Carolina in Raleigh for the opening two rounds.

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Rushed Reactions: Virginia 73, Miami 68

Posted by Matt Patton on March 12th, 2016

rushedreactions

Three Key Takeaways:

  1. This game featured a ton of experience. Miami started three seniors and two juniors with a senior as the first player off the bench; Virginia started two seniors and a junior with a senior as the first player off the bench. That experience helped Miami hang tight with Virginia throughout, but it also aided Virginia in stopping Miami from ever taking a lead. Jim Larranaga was frustrated by his team’s uncharacteristic mistakes (notably turnovers and fouling), but their opponent didn’t make anything easy, either. London Perrantes deserves credit for not committing a turnover all game. Maybe because the top of the league is so blessed with experience (the top four seeds all feature experienced lineups), there has only been one upset so far in the ACC Tournament — at least according to seed.

    Virginia guard Malcolm Brogdon (15) is pressured by Miami guard Sheldon McClellan (10) during the semifinals of the 2016 New York Life ACC Tournament in Washington DC, Friday, March 11, 2015. (Photo by Sara D. Davis, theACC.com)

    Virginia guard Malcolm Brogdon (15) is pressured by Miami guard Sheldon McClellan (10) during the semifinals of the 2016 New York Life ACC Tournament in Washington DC, Friday, March 11, 2015. (Photo by Sara D. Davis, theACC.com)

  2. Angel Rodriguez giveth and taketh away. On the same play, he threw a ridiculous behind-the-back pass at Ivan Cruz Uceda that should have been taken the other way for an easy two by Virginia. Instead Rodriguez got it back and hit a three to cut the game to a single possession. He was nearly perfect from the field, but turned the ball over once casually dribbling behind his back (he kicked it out of bounds) and once palming the ball. In a way, Rodriguez’s play was emblematic of his team’s performance, as every time they cut the game to three or four points a bad pass would wind up in Virginia’s hands.
  3. Virginia’s bigs didn’t have stellar games. Mike Tobey disappeared in the second half and Anthony Gill was saddled with foul trouble. Miami also did a great job of getting into the paint (the Hurricanes scored 32 of their 68 points in the paint, and that number would be much higher if you included free throws resulting from paint touches). The Cavaliers must defend that area of the floor better tomorrow or North Carolina’s front line will feast inside. Virginia also doesn’t have the depth up front to afford foul trouble against a deep Tar Heels front line.

Star of the Game: Malcolm Brogdon wasn’t perfect. He missed a lot of shots but he was still the player Virginia turned to whenever it needed a big bucket and he iced the game from the free throw line. His generally unflappable persona played a big role in Virginia’s cool demeanor when it looked like Miami might go on a run. Just on defense alone, Brogdon deserves national recognition, but his importance to the Cavaliers’ offense should make him a consensus first team All-American. It certainly made him the most important player on the floor tonight.

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ACC Tournament Thursday Takeaways

Posted by Matt Patton on March 11th, 2016

Thursday in Washington, DC, featured a terrific afternoon with Notre Dame clawing past Duke in overtime. Unfortunately, the other three games of the day weren’t quite as closely contested. Here are a few takeaways from the quarterfinals action.

The Pitt band plays during the quarterfinals of the 2016 New York Life ACC Tournament in Washington, DC, Thursday, March 10, 2016. (Photo by Liz Condo, theACC.com)

The Pitt band plays during the quarterfinals of the 2016 New York Life ACC Tournament in Washington, DC (Photo by Liz Condo, theACC.com)

North Carolina (26-6): The Tar Heels got a huge lift from Joel Berry in the first half as he carried their often-stagnant offense. In the second half, North Carolina’s depth was on full display while Brice Johnson was his normal all-ACC self. However, the highlight of the day may have been head coach Roy Williams failing to censor himself in the following exchange:

Q: Coach, the unbalanced schedule this year. It benefited you guys having the easiest strength of schedule in the ACC this year. Do you think it benefited you at all getting the No. 1 seed going into this tournament?

A: Depends on how you evaluate that. You know what we didn’t have the benefit of, to make somebody say we didn’t have the easy schedule, we didn’t get to play North Carolina. All that is a bunch of horse ****.

Well said, coach. We all want the round-robin back, but that’s not realistic with 15 teams. Even then, we don’t think you’d be able to play North Carolina.

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2016 ACC Tournament Preview

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on March 8th, 2016

After 10 consecutive years of southern hospitality, the ACC Tournament moves north to Washington, D.C., for a year before heading even farther up the east coast to Brooklyn in 2017 and 2018. This will mark the fifth time the ACC Tournament has been held in the DC area, and the first time back there since 2005. In a bit of a public gaffe, the league’s marketing office apparently used the wrong dome in a stock photo advertising for the tournament. Let’s hope that’s the only embarrassment that the league suffers this week. As we move into day one of the tournament, here’s a preview of a few things we expect to occur.

20160222191642_page_header_2016_mbbt_jpg

Here’s a printable version of the Bracket: 2016 ACC Tournament

And The Winner Is: According to KenPom, there’s a 66 percent chance that one of the league’s two highest-rated teams (#2 Virginia and #1 North Carolina) wins the ACC crown this week. We agree that those are the two teams to beat, with the Cavaliers earning a slight edge over the Tar Heels. Led by newly-minted ACC Player of the Year Malcolm Brogdon, the Cavaliers have been the league’s best team during the second half of conference play. North Carolina is certainly capable of beating any team in Washington, but we are a little leery of the Tar Heels’ tendency toward inconsistent shooting.

Dark Horse With a Chance: It would be a massive surprise if #4 Notre Dame repeats its historic run in Greensboro from last year, but there is a distinct possibility that this season’s bracket could break in favor of the Fighting Irish. It’s unlikely that Mike Brey’s squad will win the ACC title, but it could make a run to the championship game on Saturday. Could the 2016 ACC Tournament feature a narrative similar to that of 1976, the first time the league held its championship in the D.C. area? Virginia, the #6 seed, beat three higher-seeded teams on its way to the program’s first-ever ACC title. The Cavaliers were led by ACC Tournament MVP Wally Walker, who was supposedly motivated by a perceived snub by a media corps that neglected to vote him on to the all-ACC First Team that year. Many observers thought Notre Dame point guard Demetrius Jackson would be an all-ACC First Teamer when the league announced its current season awards on Sunday, but the outstanding junior ended up as a Second Team selection. It would not shock anyone if Jackson is out to prove a point this week.

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Inside the ACC Numbers: Volume VII – Final Edition

Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on March 7th, 2016

Here is the final edition of our weekly look at the ACC standings and team performances, where we focus on which teams are playing better or worse than their records might indicate. This week we also examine how each ACC team performed on the road compared with its home performances, and we take a final stab at predicting postseason placement for all of the eligible ACC schools.

Note: All numbers are current for games played through Saturday, March 5.

Current StandingsACCStand-Mar7

North Carolina and Virginia were pegged in the preseason as the two best teams in the ACC and that’s exactly how it turned out. Each team went through a tough stretch of games — Virginia began conference play with a 2-3 record while North Carolina was 4-4 in the month of February, but the Tar Heels and Cavaliers will enter the ACC Tournament as the clear co-favorites based on efficiency margins and seeding. Speaking of that, both teams are also still in the hunt for #1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament along with favorable opening weekend placement in friendly Raleigh.

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