03.03.09 Fast Breaks

Posted by rtmsf on March 3rd, 2009

Hey all, its your faithful intern here trying to bring you the best reading material from across the interweb. You may not have noticed, but there was no Fast Breaks yesterday, so today’s will be longer and will dip into yesterday’s stories as well…Enjoy!!

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Your Bubble Has Burst: 02.25.09

Posted by zhayes9 on February 25th, 2009

Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.  He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.

bubble-burst

We kick off this week’s edition of Your Bubble Has Burst with a fitting segment: teams whose bubbles have successfully burst since last Thursday. These teams can begin making NIT/CBI reservations barring an unprecedented conference tournament run:

Note: all computer numbers prior to Tuesday’s games.

Georgetown
– The Hoyas had two great opportunities to get right back into the thick of the bubble race by at least splitting two home games against Marquette and Louisville. Instead, they hung around with Marquette and were dismantled by Louisville, dropping both games and sending the spiraling Hoyas to a 5-10 conference record. Their next game: @ Villanova, meaning the best case scenario is 7-11 in the Big East. They’ll have to reach the Big East Tournament final now. Good luck.

Baylor– The disappointing Baylor Bears finally broke a six-game losing streak at home against Texas A&M before falling to Oklahoma State and dropping to 4-8 in the Big 12. Even if they should win 3 out of their next 4, a 7-9 record in the #4 RPI conference won’t be enough to make the field. They’ll have to make a run in Oklahoma City, but how can anyone expect that the way this team plays defense?

Seton Hall– The Pirates had an outside chance to at least put themselves in a position to earn bubble consideration with a late-season run. That went up in flames with their close loss to St. John’s on Sunday night. They have some bad losses out-of-conference and now welcome Pittsburgh to the Prudential Center. The Pirates should be a threat in the NIT.

Northwestern-
The schedule gods were not kind to poor Northwestern, who finishes their Big Ten campaign with four out of five on the road. They were thrashed at Minnesota and trips to Purdue and Ohio State still remain. At 5-9 in the conference, their bubble has officially burst.

Mississippi State– How can a team with a 7-5 record in conference make this list? 1) when you’ve lost your last two games to Auburn and Alabama (home win in the middle), 2) you play in this year’s SEC, 3) you have 1 win against the RPI top 50, 4) you have an 84 RPI. The Bulldogs needed to win at Alabama on Saturday and didn’t. There’s no way the committee considers a team with their resume.

Nebraska
– Their computer numbers are horrible and they saw their NCAA chances end last night with the home loss to Texas A&M. Simple as that.

On to the conferences:

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Set Your Tivos: 02.24.09

Posted by nvr1983 on February 24th, 2009

Set Your TivosI’m back with another edition of Set Your Tivos, which should be daily now until the NCAA tournament where you won’t need your Tivo because you’ll be glued to your couch for 3 weeks. Obviously the big game of the night at RTC East will be our RTC Live coverage of #1 Pittsburgh at Providence, but there are a lot of games for you to watch when you are not following our coverage and sending in your questions/comments to us courtside.

#1 Pittsburgh at Providence at 7 PM on The Big East Network, Fox Sports, ESPN Full Court, and ESPN360.com: As I mentioned before, this will be the site of the 4th installment of RTC Live so we’ll be covering this game from the lay-up lines until they turn out the lights. The Friars come in needing a signature win (beating a depleted Syracuse team in Providence doesn’t qualify) to bolster their chances of getting an at-large bid as I can’t remember seeing any “bracketologist” with the Friars in the NCAA tournament right now despite the fact that they have an 8-7 record in the Big East going into their game tonight. Pitt comes in as the #1 team in the country following their win at previous #1 UConn in a game where DeJuan Blair destroyed Bill Russell Hasheem Thabeet. After all the talk by Jim Calhoun and ESPN about how Thabeet was the Big East POY, Blair has thrown his hat into the ring as a potential Big East POY candidate. Blair, who is averaging 15.8 PPG and 13.0 RPG, has 22 points and 23 rebounds against the Huskies and followed it up with 20 points and 18 rebounds against DePaul. Providence coach Keno Davis will counter with. . .ok, he has nobody who can guard Blair if the Pitt big man avoids dumb fouls. Providence doesn’t really have an athlete of the caliber of Sam Young that Jamie Dixon has, but few teams in the country do. Davis does have a fairly deep rotation with seven players averaging more than 8.0 PPG. Davis will have to hope that Weyinmi Efejuku has a big game and that Sharaud Curry can give Levance Fields (still over 4 to 1 for his assist to turnover ratio) some trouble. The Friars will probably keep the game close for 30 minutes to keep this RTC co-editor entertained, but in the end the Panthers should have enough

Penn State at Ohio State at 7 PM on ESPN and ESPN360.com: This is a pretty big game for both teams. They both are probably in the NCAA tournament if the season ended today, but both could use a little work on their resume to guarantee a bid and move up a seed line or two. Penn State has bounced back to a 3-game losing streak to pick up two solid wins (Minnesota and at Illinois) while Ohio State has struggled recently losing their last 3 games by a combined 10 points. We’ll be watching two potential first team Big Ten members (Evan Turner and Talor Battle) as the winner of that match-up will probably determine the outcome of this game since this game will likely come down to the last few minutes. In any event, we’re just hoping that this game will be slightly more aesthetically pleasing than the last time Penn State took the court.

Northern Iowa at Illinois State at 8:05 PM on GameTracker: After dominating the Missouri Valley Conference for most of the season, the Panthers have fallen apart losing 3 straight and 4 of their last 5 games falling into a tie for the conference lead with Creighton. The losing streak has taken them out of consideration for an at-large bid so they need to right the ship before the MVC tournament (covered by Rush the Court). The Redbirds are coming off a BrackerBusters loss at Niagara and will be looking to rebound against a Northern Iowa team that it lost to by 4 points on the road at the end of January. Neither team really has a superstar player you should focus on, but they both have  a lot of depth. UNI has 5 players averaging between 9.0 and 11.6 PPG (Adam Koch, Kwadzo Ahelegbe, Jordan Eglseder, Ali Farokhmanesh, and Johnny Moran) while Illinois State has 5 players averaging between 9.1 and 14.9 PPG (Champ Oguchi, Osiris Eldridge, Lloyd Phillips, Emmanuel Holloway, and Dinma Odiakosa).

I couldn’t find this one listed on any TV stations so I threw up a link for GameTracker. If any of you know what channel(s) this game will be televised on, post the info in the comment section and I will update this.

Florida at #18 LSU at 9 PM on ESPN and ESPN360.com: LSU is running away with the SEC regular season title and a win here would essentially clinch it for them unless they lose their last 3 (at Kentucky, home against Vanderbilt, and at Auburn), which I don’t think will happen. Billy Donovan‘s Gators are most likely in, but could use a marquee win to solidify their resume for the Selection Committee. [Side Note: What happens to Donovan’s reputation if his team fails to make the NCAA tournament in back-to-back years immediately after winning back-to-back titles?] Nick Calathes (18.6 PPG) will have to have a big game as LSU has 2 guys who can fill it up in Marcus Thornton (20.5 PPG) and Tasmin Mitchell (16.8 PPG). I’m expecting this one to be close, but for LSU to pull away in the last 2-3 minutes.

#25 FSU at Boston College at 9 PM on ESPNU: FSU is already in the tournament and BC is most likely in as well (wins over UNC and Duke should guarantee you a spot even if you do blow a game against Harvard) so both teams are playing for seeding right now. One interesting thing about this game that a lot of people might not be aware of is that FSU still has a shot of catching UNC for the ACC regular season title. Even though FSU has been the more consistent team (see the aforementioned BC loss to Harvard), I think that Tyrese Rice and Jeff Trapani will be enough to overcome Toney Douglas, who is amazingly the only double-digit scorer (20.5 PPG) on a top 25 team.

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Blogpoll – 02.23.09

Posted by nvr1983 on February 23rd, 2009

It has been difficult to rank teams this year because it seems like there isn’t any consistency among the top 25 teams outside of the top 5 or 6, which have been consistently good lately (with an occasional off-night, which I’m willing to give college kids. Feel free to leave praise and criticism in comment section.

Rank Team Delta
1 Pittsburgh 3
2 Oklahoma 1
3 Connecticut 1
4 North Carolina 3
5 Memphis 1
6 Louisville 1
7 Duke 1
8 Villanova 1
9 Michigan St. 4
10 Wake Forest 1
11 Marquette 3
12 Arizona St. 2
13 Clemson 1
14 Missouri 1
15 Gonzaga 6
16 Kansas 2
17 Louisiana St. 8
18 Washington
19 Purdue 3
20 Xavier 3
21 UCLA 1
22 Illinois 7
23 Florida St.
24 Syracuse 2
25 Texas
Last week’s ballot
Dropped Out: Butler (#19), Utah St. (#24).
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Your Bubble Has Burst: 02.19.09

Posted by zhayes9 on February 19th, 2009

Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.   He’ll be regularly out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.

bubble-burst

Selection Sunday is sneaking up on us, folks. The conversations around college basketball are focused squarely on the bubble as we crawl closer and closer to March 15th and the unveiling of the new bracket. Whose schedule is looking favorable down the stretch? Which teams need to win out? Is the ACC approaching the Big East in terms of expected bids? Here’s your latest bubble update on Your Bubble Has Burst here at Rush the Court:

Note: all computer numbers prior to Wednesday’s games.

Atlantic Coast

Locks: North Carolina built a hefty lead in the ACC this week with their wins over Duke and Miami, while their rival Blue Devils have fallen in 4 out of 6 to drop 2.5 games behind the Tar Heels. Both Duke and Carolina, along with 7-4 Clemson and 7-4 Wake Forest, appear to be locks at this point. Despite Wake’s slip-ups to unranked ACC opposition, their home wins against Duke and North Carolina and road wins at BYU, Clemson and Boston College should be enough.

Comfortably in:
Sure, they laid an egg in Winston-Salem, but Florida State still sits in a nice position. A 21 RPI and 32 SOS with 2 wins against the RPI top 25 in the #1 RPI conference means Leonard Hamilton will finally lead his Seminoles to tournament action. The schedule down the stretch does provide room for a collapse, though, with a home-and-home against Virginia Tech, trips to BC and Duke and home contests vs. Clemson and Miami. No gimmes on that schedule.

Work left to do:
Those buzzer-beater losses to Xavier and Wisconsin would look very good as wins on Seth Greenberg’s resume right about now. Virginia Tech has done a nice job turning it around in ACC play to compile a 51 RPI, 49 SOS and wins at Wake and Miami. Still, the loss to Virginia hurts big and their non-conference wins are less than impressive. With @Clemson, Duke, North Carolina and two games vs. Florida State left on the slate, they are far from a sure thing. Boston College will probably hear their name called on Selection Sunday after the win against Duke on Sunday. They really only need to go 2-2 down the stretch and 9-7 should be enough. Their last three games are favorable: FSU, @NCST, GT. At 4-8 in the ACC, Miami needs to win out to get to 8-8. Period.

On the brink: Maryland’s throttling at the hands of halfway decent opponents in seemingly every game save Michigan State can’t impress the tournament committee. At 5-6, they’re still alive. They absolutely need to steal one of their three remaining home games with Carolina, Duke and Wake Forest while also knocking off NC State and Virginia on the road. It’s a tall task for coach Williams.

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Weekly Bracketology – 02.16.09

Posted by nvr1983 on February 16th, 2009

Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.  He’ll be regularly out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.

Here’s the latest edition of RTC Bracketology from our resident bracketologist Zach. This was created before the Pitt-UConn game last night so it does not reflect that game or any others from last night.

RTC Bracket as of February 16th

RTC Bracket as of February 16th

More on the key games this week and a rationale of the seeds and snubs after the jump.

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Boom Goes The Dynamite: 02.14.09 Edition

Posted by jstevrtc on February 14th, 2009

bgtd

Good afternoon, college hoops fans, and welcome to another version of Boom Goes The Dynamite.  What does that mean?  If there’s a game on my television, I’m watching it.  I’m even monitoring games on about five different online game-trackers.  John Stevens, here, holed-up in the RTC Midwestern Compound.  Normally you have to wait until Tuesday for me to force my opinions and exert my influence on you in my weekly column; on this particular Saturday, NVR1983 (the Zelig of college basketball fandom — the man can literally pop up anywhere in the country with a press pass and do a live broadcast and duck out before you’ve noticed he’s been there, and probably eaten half your food) is probably somewhere setting himself on press row for a game tonight, and RTMSF (the guru of RTC) is, from what I understand, probably laying under a big pink blanket watching Mad About You or Sex And The City DVDs with his wife at a spa somewhere.  Poor b—ard.

(Just kidding, Mrs. RTMSF…)

Anyway, where I am in the Midwest, it’s cold again, it’s grey, and it’s starting to snow.  Sounds like good basketball-watching weather (but what isn’t?).  I’ve got a television, I’ve got a cooler, and I’ve got a couch.  Let’s watch some hoops.  I invite you to join me. 

We’re getting a little bit of a delayed start because of a techincal difficulty on my end (long story — suffice to say, I am easily distracted and/or confused by things like shapes and colors), but now that we’re up and rolling, in a moment we’ll catch up on what’s happened so far in today’s games.  Welcome!

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Checking in on the… ACC

Posted by nvr1983 on February 11th, 2009

Ryan ZumMallen of the LBPostSports is the RTC correspondent for the ACC, SEC and Big West Conferences.

It was a week of blowouts and letdowns for the ACC setting the stage for this week’s showdowns as the elite jockey for crucial conference standings position. Let’s get right into it.

With UConn staying undefeated and remaining atop the nation’s polls, this week is just the fourth this season in which an ACC is not ranked #1 in the country. Despite that 4 of the nation’s top 11 teams are still ACC squads and 5 of the top 25. Based on that, one could assume that the ACC is in peak form and boasts the best of the best. But is the fact that ACC teams have been ranked #1 in nine out of thirteen weeks proof of the conference’s strength or its fickleness? Three different teams have held the top spot, and all three have been knocked off the perch. So is the conference so good that there are legitimately four teams capable of playing the best basketball in America and, inevitably, they will beat each other? Or is it that these four teams are good enough to get to the top but not stay there, losing focus, and falling to teams that a top contender would wallop? After last week, it would seem to be the latter.

Duke entered last week in first place in the ACC with a single loss, while UNC, Wake Forest, and Clemson all had just two conference losses – favorable position for any team confident in its ability to win the games it needs to win, and step up in the games that separate contenders from pretenders. North Carolina, likely the conference’s true cream of the crop, held steady by beating two God-awful teams in Maryland and Virginia. The other three contenders, eh, they didn’t fair so well.

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Bracketology: Never Too Early Edition V

Posted by zhayes9 on January 19th, 2009

As always, a few notes to consider as you scavenge the bracket:

  • Two of the four top seeds were clear: Wake Forest as the #1 overall and their ACC counterpart Duke. The other two were to go to conference champions, meaning North Carolina is out of the running even though you could make the case they’re the 3rd best team in the country. As strong as the Big East is this season, their projected champion deserves the nod. Pittsburgh receives the slight edge and the third #1 over Connecticut because Pitt’s one loss (@Louisville) is a tad less regretful than UConn’s (vs. Georgetown). Big 12 champion Oklahoma barely edges Big Ten champion Michigan State with one less game in the loss column for the final #1 seed. Spartan fans won’t be quite as upset once they see the bracket.
  • You may be asking: How can Georgetown with 2 Big East losses receive a #2 seed, while 4-0 Louisville gets a 3, 17-2 (overall) Syracuse gets a 3 and 5-0 Marquette gets a 4 seed? For one, the two Hoya losses were vs. Pittsburgh and at Notre Dame, two very excusable defeats (not to mention @ Duke OOC). Louisville’s bad losses out of conference (Western Kentucky, UNLV) still hurt and Marquette’s 5-0 Big East record comes without a truly impressive victory. Georgetown is also boosted by a 6 RPI and 1 SOS with 7 wins vs. the RPI top 100. While Marquette probably deserves a 3 seed along with Louisville and Syracuse, three Big East teams with the same seed causes conflicts. Sorry, Buzz, you get the bump down to a 4.
  • Kentucky does not have the resume or quality wins to garner a 6 seed by themselves, but since I have them projected to win the lowly SEC tournament, the committee should give them a boost on Selection Sunday like they have past conference champions.
  • Even with California‘s defeat at the hands of rival Stanford on Saturday, UCLA‘ s loss at home to Arizona State (and ASU’s prior loss to USC earlier in the week) means Cal keeps the automatic Pac-10 bid and remains a 3 seed. Instead UCLA falls to a 6 seed with surprisingly weak computer numbers (45 RPI, 98 SOS, 4-3 vs. top 100).
  • You might be wondering: Notre Dame an 8 seed? It’s true, folks. A 61 RPI, 102 SOS, 3-3 Big East record, a bad loss to St. John’s and a complete inability to win on the road will do that. Big game for them Saturday vs. Connecticut.

Last Four In: Dayton, Missouri, Utah, Texas A&M
Last Four Out: UNLV, Mississippi State, Illinois State, Arkansas
Next Four Out: Maryland, LSU, Southern Cal, Virginia Tech

Dayton and Illinois State have eerily similiar resumes, but it was hard to ignore ISU’s atrocious SOS (232) and Dayton’s huge win over Marquette, so the Flyers get the nod. Missouri creeps in riding that win over California in November and with a decent 39 RPI on the season. Texas A&M defeated Baylor earlier in the week to keep them in the field and Utah is boosted by outstanding computer numbers (21 RPI, 13 SOS). Mississippi State boasts a 3-0 SEC record, but hasn’t even played a team in the RPI top 50. Arkansas is the polar opposite- big wins over Texas and Oklahoma, but fall out of the field with their 0-3 SEC start. Maryland had a brutal week blowing a huge second half lead at Miami and losing in overtime to Florida State.

011909-bracketology

Multiple bids per conference: Big East (9), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (7), ACC (6), Pac 10 (5), SEC (3), West Coast (2), Atlantic 10 (2), Mountain West (2).

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Bracketology: Never Too Early Edition IV

Posted by zhayes9 on January 11th, 2009

Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.   He’ll be regularly out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.

Conference play is beginning to heat up (what a game between Wake Forest and North Carolina on Sunday night) and that means the bracket is starting to become a bit less muddled. This week saw 10 teams trade places in the bracket and a major shift amongst the top four seeds. I used RPI, SOS, record, conference record and wins vs. RPI top 1-50 while evaluating the true bubble teams by their individual resumes. Please leave any thoughts/gripes in the comments.

Quick notes:

  • By now you know the routine: I factor in conference tournaments for the automatic bids. Meaning that while Tennessee probably doesn’t deserve their 5-seed, I have them projected to win their conference tournament. That results in three extra wins prior to Selection Sunday and a seed boost. This used to apply for Oklahoma (1), California (3) and Michigan State (3), but now you can make the argument those are proper seeds regardless of the conference championship. Memphis (6), Gonzaga (7) and San Diego State (9) do receive the slight boost.
  • The top seeds are much more clear this week with the #1’s going to Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Duke and Oklahoma. North Carolina drops to 0-2 in the ACC and a 2 seed, joining undefeated Clemson and one-loss Connecticut and Syracuse. Not too much debate there. Projected Big 10 champion Michigan State garners a 3-seed, while the Cal Bears huge 3OT victory in Seattle mean they move ahead of UCLA as the projected Pac-10 champion. The other 3-seeds are Georgetown and those Bruins.
  • Arkansas had a golden opportunity to claim the projected SEC champion berth, but fell at home in a stunner to Mississippi State. Tennessee at 1-0 remains in that position with their squeaker over Georgia.
  • Dayton barely sneaks into the field as my Last Team In, carrying two wins over the RPI Top 50 (most notably Marquette), while Kentucky’s best win is a squeaker over 8-seed West Virginia. Oklahoma State’s 21 SOS, 2 wins over the RPI Top 50, 12-3 record and conference victory over Texas A&M on Saturday carry them barely into the bracket. Maryland (bad loss to Morgan State but have those quality wins over both Michigan schools) and Florida State (riding that win over Cal, also beat Florida) also sneak in.
  • Illinois State’s bad loss at Indiana State, along with a 251 SOS, mean they’re removed from the field. Boston College had a terrible week after their monumental upset in Chapel Hill, losing to Harvard and Miami at home, dropping the Eagles out. Missouri losing at Nebraska was a crucial defeat.

Last Four In: Dayton, Oklahoma State, Maryland, Florida State
Last Four Out: Kentucky, Illinois State, Boston College, Missouri
Next Four Out: Creighton, Stanford, Arizona, South Carolina

bracketology-011109

Multiple bids per conference: Big East (9), Atlantic Coast (7), Big 10 (7), Big 12 (6), Pacific 10 (4), SEC (3), Mountain West (3), West Coast (2), Atlantic 10 (2).

Automatic bids: Binghamton, Xavier, Wake Forest, East Tennessee State, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Weber State, VMI, Michigan State, Long Beach State, George Mason, Memphis, Butler, Cornell, Siena, Miami (OH), Morgan State, Northern Iowa, San Diego State, Robert Morris, Morehead State, California, Navy, Tennessee, Davidson, Stephen F. Austin, Alabama State, North Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, Utah State.

New additions: Binghamton, East Tennessee State, Long Beach State, Miami (OH), Morgan State, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma State, Robert Morris, San Diego State, Weber State.

Dropped out: Belmont, Boston College, Illinois State, Missouri, LSU, Oakland, Portland State, Stanford, Quinnipiac, Vermont.

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