Sunday, March 21 (all CBS)
12:10pm - Syracuse vs. Gonzaga
2:20pm - Ohio State vs Georgia Tech
2:30pm - Maryland vs Michigan State
2:40pm - West Virginia vs Missouri
2:50pm - Wisconsin vs Cornell
4:50pm - Pittsburgh vs Xavier
5:00pm - Purdue vs Texas A&M
5:15pm - Duke vs California
Patrick Marshall of White & Blue Review is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley Conference.
PRESEASON vs. ACTUAL RESULTS
As you can see from the preseason predictions I made on the Missouri Valley conference back in October versus how things ended up, the MVC turned out to be difficult to predict this year as none of the teams performed as expected other than Northern Iowa and Wichita State.
I originally was not sold on the Panthers, but as the season wore on, I could see the cohesiveness and all the little things this group of players do to win games. Even with the suspension of Jordan Eglseder in three of the final four games, they were able to rally for the most part and continue their dominance in the Valley. Wichita State may have surprised some, but the Shockers appear to be back in the Valley picture after a few year absence from relevance. The work Gregg Marshall has done to build this team back up from scratch has paid off. The question now is whether it is enough to get to an NCAA Tournament postseason.
HELLO SAINT LOUIS
The Missouri Valley Conference tournament will take place this coming week at the Scottrade Center in downtown Saint Louis. Rush the Court will be live in St. Louis this week to keep you updated on the things going on at Arch Madness. Here is how the bracket shapes up:
UNDER THE BIG TOP: Much has already been written about the UNC-Texas shootout/circus at The-House-That-Jerry-Built. The 103-90 Texas win proved that Roy Williams’ Tar Heels still have plenty to do on the defensive end, as UNC gave up 100 points in regulation for the first time in Williams’ tenure there. Does this mean that UNC is not good enough to reach the Final Four? Absolutely not. If there’s any team that needs time to find its identity, it’s this one, considering all the new faces. I may have bumped UNC out of the top spot this week (and I may think Roy Williams is a crybaby), but I still expect the Heels to rise back to the top of the ACC (notice how I’m already backing off my crazy Maryland prediction from earlier in the year). (…)
MVC-MWC Challenge winding down—The Valley continues to lead the challenge against the Mountain West Conference 4-3 heading into the final weekend of games. Illinois State went on the road to defeat Utah and Creighton had a chance to close out the conference’s victory but lost a huge lead on New Mexico and left Albuquerque with a loss. Now it is up to Drake and Northern Iowa this coming weekend to close out the first year of a several year agreement for each conference to play one another. In the coming years all of the Challenge games will be played in a one-week time period instead of throughout the non-conference season. (…)
Over the course of the last ten weeks we’ve broken down sixty players from around the country whom we expect will have the biggest impact on college basketball this season. We performed this exercise geographically, choosing five high-major and one mid-major player from each of the somewhat arbitrary ten regions of the country. If you’d like to read through the individual regions (and we highly encourage that), you can check all ten here.
If you don’t have the time or inclination to read through all of the previous posts, we’ll summarize here for you by rating the strongest to the weakest regions.
(ed. note: we started this so long ago that Binghamton still had a promising basketball program, and DJ Rivera still had a place to play)
1. Lower Midwest Region (OH, IN, IL, IA, NE, KS)
Overview. This seemed pretty clear just at a first glance. Aldrich, Collins and Harangody are three of the 1st team AAs on the RTC preseason list, and Brackins and Turner are on the 2d team. This group has unbelievable scoring ability, size and experience. The only weak link is the mid-major inclusion of Eldridge, who is a fine player, but not in the class of the rest of these superstars. The nation’s heartland is the epicenter of college basketball talent this year.
Best Players Left Out. Where to start? The depth in this region is incredible. Gordon Hayward and Matt Howard at Butler, Robbie Hummell and E’Twaun Moore at Purdue, even Lance Stephenson at Cincinnati. The #6-10 players in this region would probably be better than all but a few of the other regions.
2. Mid-South Region (KY, TN, MO, AR, OK)
Overview. It was a very close call between this region and the South Atlantic, but we felt that the guard play of Warren and Wall with Anderson on the wing would compensate for what this team gives up in size. And it doesn’t give up much, considering Patterson, Smith and Jordan are all exceptional inside. Tough call, but Wall is the likely #1 pick, so he’s the x-factor.
Best Players Left Out. Plenty of raw size here, including Samardo Samuels at Louisville, Michael Washington at Arkansas and DeMarcus Cousins at Kentucky. Throw in the skilled size of AJ Ogilvy at Vanderbilt and Wayne Chism at Tennessee and this area will punish you on the interior.
3. South Atlantic Region (DC, VA, NC, SC, GA)
Overview. This is the third region that’s chock full of NBA talent – each of the rest below have smatterings of it, but not nearly as much. Aminu, Booker and Singler all define skilled versatility, while Monroe could end up the best big in the entire country if he wants it enough. Sanders is a little undersized but relentless as well.
Best Players Left Out. Ed Davis at UNC was a lighting rod topic, as some felt that he’d be an all-american this year with his length and skill set. Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal are two others. A good argument could be made that this region had the best players left out, but it sorta depends on how this year plays out due to their relative youth and inexperience.
Patrick Marshall of White and Blue Review is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley Conference.
Predicted Order of Finish:
Creighton (24-6, 14-4)
Northern Iowa (23-6, 13-5)
Wichita St. (23-8, 12-6)
Southern Illinois (21-8, 12-6)
Illinois St. (23-7, 11-7)
Bradley (19-10, 10-8)
Indiana St. (17-13, 8-10)
Drake (13-18, 5-13)
Evansville (10-19, 3-15)
Missouri St. (9-21, 2-16)
All-Conference Team. This is a guard laden league which will populate the Missouri Valley All-Conference team this season.
Kevin Dillard (G), So., Southern Illinois ( 12.2 pts., 4.2 ast.)—The bright spot for Southern Illinois last season is a tenacious ball handler and defender.
Clevin Hannah (G), Sr., Wichita St. (11.2 pts. 4.3 ast.)—Hannah comes in as the leader for the Shockers which will make some noise this season.
Osiris Eldridge (G), Sr., Illinois St. (14 pts, 6 reb.)–Last season he had Champ Oguchi as a security blanket and kept him from trying to take over the game himself. His all around game development will probably garner him Conference Player of the Year honors.
Justin Carter (G), Sr., Creighton (8.1 pts, 5.5 reb.)—Over the summer, Carter has emerged as the leader of the Bluejays.
Adam Koch (F), Sr., Northern Iowa (12.1 pts., 5.1 reb.)—Koch was a solid player last season to help lead the Panthers to the conference championship and will get the opportunity again as the team returns pretty much everyone.
6th Man. Jake Kelly (G), Jr., Indiana St. (Transfer from Iowa)—Jake got a surprise this fall as the NCAA allowed him to be an active player on the Sycamore team instead of having to sit out a year like transfers usually must. Due to the death of his mother, Kelly returned home to Indiana last season and announced he was transferring to Indiana St. Getting immediate eligibility will solidify the backcourt for the Sycamores.
Impact Newcomer. Wayne Runnels (F), Jr., Creighton—Wayne was an all around sports star in high school and could have probably played any sport he wanted to. He decided on basketball. The JC transfer will make an immediate impact for the Bluejays.
What You Need to Know.For several years, the Missouri Valley Conference was a multiple bid conference for the NCAA Tournament, but the runs by Wichita St. and Bradley to the Sweet 16 in 2006 seem like a distant memory. The past two seasons, the MVC has only managed to get their one automatic bid into The Dance. Drake went in 2008 and Northern Iowa went last season. Both teams won the regular season title and conference tournament. Although Creighton shared the regular season championship with the Panthers last season, the Bluejays were on the outside looking in for the 2nd straight year while Southern Illinois had their first losing season in 10 years. Considering the unexpected the last two seasons, things may be returning back to the norm this winter. Casual fans of the conference may see familiar names at the top this season as Creighton, Southern Illinois and Wichita St. will be in the mix, while last season’s champion Northern Iowa returns almost everyone to a team that surprised everyone by the time conference play rolled around. Illinois State has risen toward the top the past couple of seasons and although they again have Player of the Year candidate Osiris Eldridge in the lineup, the supporting cast may not be enough this season to keep them there.
Predicted Champion. Creighton Bluejays (NCAA Seed: #9)—There are so many teams that believe they will be the best this season, but Creighton will slip to the top. Creighton worked it’s way back up to the top of the league down the stretch last season winning 11 of the last 12 regular season games before getting embarrassed by Illinois St. in the MVC Conference Tournament semifinals. Yes, Creighton lost MVC POY Booker Woodfox. Yes, Creighton lost four year starting PG Josh Dotzler. Yes, emerging big man Kenton Walker transferred. Those are definitely big holes to fill. But the returning core includes senior Justin Carter who was a JUCO transfer a year ago and by the second half of the season became comfortable and dominated the boards. He has appeared to take a leadership role over the summer. P’Allen Stinnett is fun to watch and it will be important to see if he has matured enough to also be a leader. Antoine Young emerged as the guy to lead the point for the Bluejays, but watch out for Andrew Bock to settle in as the Dotzler type of point guard Coach Dana Altman is used to and to utilize Young’s skills in his ability to drive to the basket at the off guard spot. The question mark is the inside game where Kenny Lawson is the only real veteran returning to the post position. Chad Millard is a little out of position in the post, but is the next tallest player on the team. Wayne Runnels comes in from the JUCO ranks and is expected to make an impact right away to help a team that ranked last in the Valley last season in rebound margin. A couple other players on the roster are expected to step up on a team that likes to rotate players constantly leaving the opening for others to make plays. Creighton also has the potential to have the best non-conference schedule in the league which will give them a little more wiggle room whether they win the conference or not.
Ed. Note: the previous posts in this series (Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Atlantic South, Deep South and Mid-South) are located here.
It’s time for the sixth installment of our RTC 2009-10 Impact Players series, the group of rust belt and farming states that we like to call the Lower Midwest. Each week we’ll pick a geographic area of the country and break down the five players who we feel will have the most impact on their teams (and by the transitive property, college basketball) this season. Our criteria is once again subjective – there are so many good players in every region of the country that it’s difficult to narrow them down to only five in each – but we feel at the end of this exercise that we’ll have discussed nearly every player of major impact in the nation. Just to be fair and to make this not too high-major-centric, we’re also going to pick a mid-major impact player in each region as our sixth man. We welcome you guys, our faithful and very knowledgeable readers, to critique us in the comments where we left players off. The only request is that you provide an argument – why will your choice be more influential this season than those we chose?
Ed. Note: for the purposes of our analysis in this region, Butler was considered a high-major program.
Cole Aldrich – Jr, C – Kansas. Much like North Carolina one October ago, Kansas appears to be the unanimous selection to begin the season atop every poll and ranking. One of the main reasons for such accolades is the continued improvement of Cole Aldrich, the Kansas double-double machine in the post. Remember the national semifinals against UNC in 2008 when Aldrich burst onto the scene recording eight points, seven rebounds and four blocks in a then career-high 17 minutes? That was the night college hoops fans first saw what Aldrich can provide for Bill Self and his Jayhawks. In a full season of play, Aldrich and guard Sherron Collins were the anchors behind Kansas’ surprising run to a #3 seed and a Sweet 16 berth in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year. Cole Aldrich and a pretty good player named Blake Griffin were the only players in the Big 12 to average a double-double in 2008-09. Speaking of stats, Aldrich’s triple-double in the second round against Dayton – 13/20/10 blks- was the first recorded triple double in KU’s illustrious basketball history. Aldrich led the conference in blocks with at 2.7 BPG, finished second in rebounding at 12.4 RPG, second in FG% at 60% and tenth in FT% at an impressive 79% for a 6’11 center. Aldrich possesses great length, a high motor and displays the fundamentals under the basket that Self loves. The insane talent around Aldrich this season will only put less of a load on his shoulders as the big man can rely on Collins for the clutch outside shot, Xavier Henry on the wings, Thomas Robinson on the block or Tyrel Reed to knock down the long-range three. But the pressure will be on Aldrich to provide a post presence that simply cannot be matched in the Big 12 (sorry Dexter Pittman). If he achieves his potential, a national POY award isn’t out of the realm of possibility for Kansas’ prized junior center.
Craig Brackins – Jr, F – Iowa St. Craig Brackins won’t get half the airtime this season as any of the other high-major names on this list, but he could end up becoming the best player of the group when it’s all said and done. It’s not as if Brackins came out of nowhere – he was a five-star recruit out of Brewster (NH) Academy in 2007, and he turned down offers from Indiana and Pitt, among others – but, when you play in the Big 12 and your team is generally an afterthought (4-12 in 2008-09), it’s tough to get noticed. But noticed he got on Jan. 24th in a nationally-televised home game against the defending champion Kansas Jayhawks. Brackins sliced and diced the vaunted Jayhawk defense for 42/14 in a losing effort that had Bill Self afterwards stating that the lanky center could be the “best player in the country today.” That single game may have put the Iowa State star on the casual fan’s radar screen, but it’s not like Brackins wasn’t tearing it up against everyone else too: 32/16 against N. Iowa; 28/17 against Jacksonville St.; 38/14 against Houston; 25/13 against Nebraska. The all-Big 12 first teamer nearly averaged a double-double for the season (20.2 PPG and 9.5 RPG) despite seeing hard and fast double-teams every time he touched the ball. It was widely presumed that Brackins would jump into the NBA Draft last summer after such a spectacular season; after all, projections for him of the lottery and mid-first round were prevalent. However, Brackins said that he had some unfinished business to attend to at ISU (meaning, getting the Cyclones to an NCAA Tournament), and he returned to what should be an improved squad with 6′7 juco transfer Marquis Gilstrap’s arrival on the blocks and a solid returning backcourt of Diante Garrett and Lucca Staiger. The only true weakness he has exhibited so far in his career is his 28% from beyond the arc, but with more firepower on the team this year he may be less inclined to feel like he has to do it all (Brackins attempted 37% of ISU’s shots last year). Regardless of how the team’s season plays out in 2009-10, there should be no doubt that Brackins is on the short list of best post men in America. With another year of seasoning under his belt at the collegiate level, however, we could be looking at a top five pick next June. Don’t flip the channel so quickly if you see that Iowa St. is playing on the tube this year – it may be one of your few chances to see one of the best big men in the country.
RTC Aftermath will come to you each night where our correspondents are at the conference tournament games as a part of RTC Live. Patrick Marshall was in St. Louis all weekend covering the MVC Tournament for RTC.
First off, I would like to apologize to Rush the Court and Rush the Court fans that due to a family issue, we were not able to do an RTC Live event for the Missouri Valley Conference Final as expected.
UNI: MVC Champs (photo credit: WCFCourier.com)
Northern Iowa is the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament champion and punched their ticket to the NCAA tournament today defeating Illinois St. in overtime 60-57. Northern Iowa was on fire early and took a 27-19 lead into the locker room at halftime. Illinois St. was only shooting 23% at halftime and almost looked like they were going to suffer the same fate they handed to Creighton the night before.
However, Illinois St. came out in the second half with a run to quickly tie the game behind Osiris Eldridge who scored all 21 of his points after halftime. The game then went back and forth the rest of the way with Eldridge hitting some 3-pointers that were way behind the line including one that was almost literally at half court. It looked like Illinois St.’s game to win, but the Panthers from UNI stormed back to force the game into overtime.
In the overtime, UNI’s Ali Farokhmenesh once again hit 2 key three pointers and free throws at the end to get UNI to the victory. He finished with 13 points on 4-5 shooting and 3-4 from three. Kwadzo Ahelegbe led UNI with 17 points as the other Panther in double figures.
The things that stuck out in the game were that Illinois St. was able to put up 63 shots while Northern Iowa only put up 46. For the game, Illinois St. was held to 30% shooting which was totally opposite from the night before. So as Northern Iowa is celebrating with their 23-10 record and the MVC tournament championship, let’s see how other teams from the Valley might fare in the postseason:
We’re back for the final weekend of regular season Boom Goes the Dynamite for this college basketball season. The highlights of the weekend are obviously the two top 10 match-ups (in Pittsburgh on Saturday and in Chapel Hill on Sunday). We would love to provide you with another RTC Live from those site, but apparently we’re not big enough for them yet. (The onus is on you to spread the word.)
In any event, we’re going to make lemonade out of those lemons so we’ll be providing coverage from our bi-coastal offices covering all the action. Today is loaded with 15 of the top 25 playing with the other 10 playing on Sunday. We will be trying out best to provide you with wall-to-wall coverage of the top teams in action as well as RTC Live from several different locations:
West Coast Conference at 9 PM EST for Santa Clara-San Diego with Mike Vernetti courtside
In addition to our on-site correspondents we will be focusing in on a few key games for the majority of the day while also channel surfing over to the other games when the situation merits it. Here are the primary games that we will be covering today:
#1 UConn at #4 Pittsburgh at Noon on CBS
Michigan at Minnesota at Noon on ESPN and ESPN360.com
#25 Syracuse at #15 Marquette at 2 PM on ESPN360.com
#12 Missouri at Texas A&M at 2 PM on ESPN2 and ESPN360.com
California at #21 Arizona State at 2 PM on CBS
Oklahoma State at #5 Oklahoma at 3:30 PM on ABC
Texas at #9 Kansas at 4 PM on CBS
Washington State at #13 Washington at 5:30 PM on CBS
Wright State at #22 Butler at 7 PM on ESPNU
#6 Louisville at West Virginia at 9 PM on ESPN and ESPN360.com
As you can tell it’s a pretty ambitious schedule so we are asking you, our loyal legion of RTC followers, to help alert all of us if something interesting is happening. You can contribute by leaving a message in the comment section so we all can follow it.
11:30 PM: ESPN GameDay is live from Morgantown, WV and they’re doing their own version of Make Your Case. I feel a little bit like Bill Simmons after ESPN stole his Mount Rushmore, but they aren’t paying me a million dollars a year.
11:45 PM: A couple pieces of NCAA tournament news to wrap-up before we focus on our TV for the next 12 hours: Cornell became the first team to officially get into the tournament last night by winning the Ivy League title and 3 others will join them when the Atlantic Sun, Big South, and Ohio Valley have their championship games today.
RTC Aftermath will come to you each night where our correspondents are at the conference tournament games as a part of RTC Live. Patrick Marshall is in St. Louis all weekend covering the MVC Tournament for RTC.
Today you experienced our live blog of the Bradley-Southern Illinois game in the quarterfinal round of the MVC tournament. This game was up and down for both teams. Both teams were ready to go:
Bradley won this game by hitting timely shots and wearing out the Salukis. The Salukis shot only 35% from the field and Kevin Dillard, one of SIU’s bigger scorers was held scoreless in playing all 40 minutes of the game.
Welcome back to Boom Goes the Dynamite. It’s Noon eastern and it’s Saturday, so that means we’re affixed to the couch for the rest of the weekend. The day gets off to a little bit of a slow start, but keep in mind that RTC Live will be coming to you from Gampel Pavilion at UConn at 2pm, and we’ll be here for the rest of the action today (all 135 games). Let’s get it going…
12:17pm. We’ve got Villanova – Georgetown on ESPN and Cleveland St. – Butler on ESPN2 right now. UNC – Georgia Tech is on CBS, and if you’re really misogynistic, Depaul – St. John’s is on ESPN 360. Here at the RTC compound we’re going to keep an eye on Butler right now because they don’t get much air time, tracking the others.
12:22pm. Has anyone else noticed that we’re only a week until the end of the regular season, but several of these “national” games are complete garbage? Who’s making these schedules? There’s no way UNC – Georgia Tech should be a CBS game on Feb. 28 this year. Later we get the thrilling Oklahoma – Texas Tech game. Oh well, at least Blake Griffin is due to return today.
12:27pm. So far it’s a brickfest in Philly at the Georgetown-Nova game, while the UNC-Ga Tech game is (shockingly) lacking defense. Cleveland St. is giving Butler all they want so far – love the Hinkle Fieldhouse. Where are Coach Dale, Shooter and Jimmy Chitwood?
12:43pm. Yes, Bucky, it is definitely a whiteout there. Speaking of white, could Gordon Hayward be the second coming of Adam Morrison (w/o the floppy hair and needle injections during games)? They both have similar builds and games (from our viewpoint), but Hayward has the superior numbers as a frosh (GH: 14/6 on 48%/83%/46% vs. AM: 11/4 on 53%/73%/30%). Granted AM played 20 mpg his freshman season versus Hayward’s 32 mpg, but still. Butler takes a six-pt lead into the half.
Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist. He’ll be regularly out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.
02.23.09 Bracketology
Last Four In: Kansas State, San Diego State, Maryland, UNLV Last Four Out: Michigan, Oklahoma State, Saint Mary’s, Miami (FL) Next Four Out: Cincinnati, Southern Cal, Virginia Tech, Providence Also Considered: Notre Dame, Temple, Nebraska, Georgetown, UAB, Rhode Island, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, Mississippi State
Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist. He’ll be regularly out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.
Conference play is beginning to heat up (what a game between Wake Forest and North Carolina on Sunday night) and that means the bracket is starting to become a bit less muddled. This week saw 10 teams trade places in the bracket and a major shift amongst the top four seeds. I used RPI, SOS, record, conference record and wins vs. RPI top 1-50 while evaluating the true bubble teams by their individual resumes. Please leave any thoughts/gripes in the comments.
Quick notes:
By now you know the routine: I factor in conference tournaments for the automatic bids. Meaning that while Tennessee probably doesn’t deserve their 5-seed, I have them projected to win their conference tournament. That results in three extra wins prior to Selection Sunday and a seed boost. This used to apply for Oklahoma (1), California (3) and Michigan State (3), but now you can make the argument those are proper seeds regardless of the conference championship. Memphis (6), Gonzaga (7) and San Diego State (9) do receive the slight boost.
The top seeds are much more clear this week with the #1’s going to Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Duke and Oklahoma. North Carolina drops to 0-2 in the ACC and a 2 seed, joining undefeated Clemson and one-loss Connecticut and Syracuse. Not too much debate there. Projected Big 10 champion Michigan State garners a 3-seed, while the Cal Bears huge 3OT victory in Seattle mean they move ahead of UCLA as the projected Pac-10 champion. The other 3-seeds are Georgetown and those Bruins.
Arkansas had a golden opportunity to claim the projected SEC champion berth, but fell at home in a stunner to Mississippi State. Tennessee at 1-0 remains in that position with their squeaker over Georgia.
Dayton barely sneaks into the field as my Last Team In, carrying two wins over the RPI Top 50 (most notably Marquette), while Kentucky’s best win is a squeaker over 8-seed West Virginia. Oklahoma State’s 21 SOS, 2 wins over the RPI Top 50, 12-3 record and conference victory over Texas A&M on Saturday carry them barely into the bracket. Maryland (bad loss to Morgan State but have those quality wins over both Michigan schools) and Florida State (riding that win over Cal, also beat Florida) also sneak in.
Illinois State’s bad loss at Indiana State, along with a 251 SOS, mean they’re removed from the field. Boston College had a terrible week after their monumental upset in Chapel Hill, losing to Harvard and Miami at home, dropping the Eagles out. Missouri losing at Nebraska was a crucial defeat.
Last Four In: Dayton, Oklahoma State, Maryland, Florida State Last Four Out: Kentucky, Illinois State, Boston College, Missouri Next Four Out: Creighton, Stanford, Arizona, South Carolina
Multiple bids per conference: Big East (9), Atlantic Coast (7), Big 10 (7), Big 12 (6), Pacific 10 (4), SEC (3), Mountain West (3), West Coast (2), Atlantic 10 (2).
Automatic bids: Binghamton, Xavier, Wake Forest, East Tennessee State, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Weber State, VMI, Michigan State, Long Beach State, George Mason, Memphis, Butler, Cornell, Siena, Miami (OH), Morgan State, Northern Iowa, San Diego State, Robert Morris, Morehead State, California, Navy, Tennessee, Davidson, Stephen F. Austin, Alabama State, North Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, Utah State.
New additions: Binghamton, East Tennessee State, Long Beach State, Miami (OH), Morgan State, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma State, Robert Morris, San Diego State, Weber State.
As we mentioned in our BGTD Early Edition today, we’re still tinkering around with a workable format for this feature. So with the West Coast Office taking over as you easterners hunker down for the night, we’re going to try it a little differently this evening. Let us know in the comments if you have any feedback, constructive, destructive or otherwise.
Sidenote: is there a better value than the Fox College Sports package on your cable or dish system? Seriously, for $5/month, you get access to dozens more college games, and at least on ours, the Big 10 Network and the CBS College Sports Network. Great deal, and this comes from we who typically despise our cable company.
Comments Heading into the Darkness.
The only significant upset so far today has been spastic UMass (5-8 ) spanking Dayton (14-1) in Springfield, 75-62.
Staying in the A10, that St. Joe’s – Rhodie triple-OT thriller (92-86 St. Joe’s) at the Palestra must have been something.
3pm/4pm/5pm Games.
There was a mild upset in Lincoln as Nebraska ran out to a big first half lead and held off Mizzou down the stretch. From what we saw, Missouri didn’t look all that interested.
Life on the road in the Big 10 is not going to be pleasant for the Hoosiers this year. The Illini were only up 45-20 at the half.
6pm/7pm/8pm Games.
We caught a good bit of the UConn-Cincy game and continue to wonder when (if?) the Huskies will reach their lofty potential. They seemed to do just enough to make sure that they won the game – nothing more, nothing less. As an example, nine-footer Hasheem Thabeet had three rebounds in 29 minutes.
UCF might just have the ugliest home court in America. Memphis probably isn’t going 18-0 in CUSA this year.
It’s amazing how much harder Cal is playing on the defensive end this year vs. last year. The Bears pulled off the mild upset in Washington and now stand at 4-0 in the Pac-10. The two starting backcourts combined for 120 pts in this triple-OT game.
We caught a bit of the Florida-Ole Miss game and the Gators looked tough (for a half). Still don’t think the SEC has much to show this year.
Also caught some of the Miami-BC game, and well, let’s just say that we have no idea how BC managed to beat Carolina last weekend.
Ugh. Also noticed Illinois St. lost its second in a row (after a 14-0) start to Indiana St. tonight, a 4-12 team.
9pm and Later Games.
Um, Arkansas can beat top 10 teams at home, but not Mississippi St. Nice.
Stanford blew a lead at Wazzu, but neither of these teams look very impressive. NIT for both.
What We Learned Today. Not a lot, actually, other than to not assume Arkansas will roll through its home schedule. Today’s slate of games was rather uninspiring, and it doesn’t get terribly better tomorrow until 8pm, when Wake-Carolina tips off. We love the way the Deacs have been playing lately, and they are at home, so that one could be very interesting. ESPN should have started Gameday this weekend and made that game the focal point instead of the worthless Miami (FL) at UNC game next weekend.
Bradley 56, Illinois St. 52. ISU’s undefeated season came to an end in front of a packed house at Bradley behind a balanced attack that saw nine Braves score in this game. Bradley held ISU 24 points below its scoring average by defending their 3-pt attack (6-26, .231), holding the Redbirds well below its typical 40.5% average from long range. ISU made a small run in the second half to close a 14-pt lead down to six, but Bradley hit their FTs (11-13) and took care of the ball enough to secure the upset win.
Clemson 66, Alabama 59. For a while, it appeared that we would be left with only two undefeated teams after tonight, as Alabama was continuing to play well on the road against the unbeaten Tigers. A quick 15-0 run in the mid-second half put an end to that, however, as Bama’s Ronald Steele in particular was held scoreless in the second stanza. Bama appears to be playing much better than they were at the beginning of the season, but the real question we have is whether Clemson will be able to sustain its so-far great season once ACC play begins in earnest. We may not know for sure until a five-game stretch beginning 1/17 where Clemson plays Wake, UNC and Duke in the span of eighteen days.
Since the ATB writers have been in a self-induced coma as a result of last week’s NYE festivities (hey, it’s hard living in your mom’s basement), rather than rehashing a bunch of stale games from Wed-Sun, we thought it’d make more sense to just hit some highlights and trends of things we’re watching as the haze continues to wear off from our vision and the strange burning sensations subside.
Some News & Notes.
Is Tubby Smith on the short list of coaches looking at Arizona? Maybe the Tubbster realized that, yes, those icicles on your c#&k really do stay there for six months of the year, and as such, Tucson is looking pretty tasty.
Former Hoosier and UAB carpetbagger Armon Bassett ended up transferring to Ohio U. He will be eligible after next fall’s quarter.
Kyle Whelliston is awesome. Seriously. The Mid-Majority founder and resident subversive in the college hoops world discovered a clear trend showing that the BCS teams are playing each other more often during the out-of-conference slate, and the mid-majors less. He thinks this is good for the mids, but we’re not so sure. The mids really need those opportunities to shine that beating S. Florida and Oregon St. UCLA and Duke provide.
The Dagger had a great year-in-review wrapup article over at Yahoo Sports, as well as a look at what college hoops might look like if the BCS was running things over here.
The Big East is insane this year. In just the last three weeks, we’ve seen UConn look like the most likely hurdle for North Carolina through its clutch win in Seattle vs. Gonzaga. Then we jumped on the Georgetown bandwagon after the Hoyas proceeded to go up to Storrs and thump those Huskies behind a balanced offensive attack and its standard sticky defense. Only for our mis/pre-conceptions to be challenged again when Pittsburgh chose to use this weekend’s matchup in DC at Georgetown to manhandle (manhandle? try superman-handle… the Panthers had more o-rebs - 18 – than the Hoyas had total – 17) the same team that looked so fantastic against UConn five days prior. We really don’t know what to make of this league with these performances. Given the way things have gone so far, Pitt should now be in position to get its bell rung by UConn in Western Pa. We just don’t know. One thing we think we can say without too much hedging is that UConn, Georgetown, Pitt, and possibly Notre Dame, Syracuse and Louisville (if those three ever get it completely going), are the best top six to a conference we’ve ever seen. It’s likely that all six of those teams would win the SEC and compete with UCLA for the Pac-10 crown. In 1995, the ACC had a really strong top four, but nothing like this group. As for Georgetown, we noted after the UConn game that their lack of strong bench production could end up biting them in the arse down the stretch, and it was absolutely exhibited here (2 pts). This will ultimately be the Hoyas’ downfall, as their 29-game homecourt winning streak was snapped when Pitt went on a 17-4 run to blow open a 40-40 tie game. As much as we love Greg Monroe, he was schooled by the savvier Dejuan Blair, who dropped 20/17 on the bigger player.
Monday update: Notre Dame 73, Georgetown 67. Notre Dame defeated Georgetown at home tonight, keeping their 44-game homecourt (and 19-game conference) winning streak alive. This occurred a mere two days after the Irish laid a leprechaun egg against St. John’s in NYC. Just like that, Georgetown is now 1-2 in the conference, when one week ago tonight they looked like the team to beat. Wow.
Is the SEC surging? It’s probably too little, too late, for the SEC to save its sinking sunk RPI in time to matter much come Selection Sunday, but the last few days of games showed that the league may have some fight left in it, following up on Arkansas’ upset of Oklahoma and pulling off a few key wins in games that its teams would have lost in November or early December. Consider the following scores:
South Carolina 85, Baylor 84. SC is one of the definite surprise teams of this season, proving once again that Dave Odom has been the luckiest man alive to have bilked multiple schools of millions of dollars by passing himself off as a legitimate head coach. Getting a win over a ranked team in a true road game is something the SEC hadn’t done all year. Until Friday night. Shooting 54% and putting all five starters in double-figures helps.
Florida 68, NC State 66. We probably shouldn’t be giving too much love to a team that allowed its marginal ACC opponent to shoot 59% on its home floor, but hey, an intersectional win is a win! Nick Calathes saved the day with 24 of his 34, including the go-ahead jumper with 11 seconds left, coming in the second half.
Alabama 88, Georgia Tech 77. Bama will be as good as Ronald Steele is and he was excellent on this night (23/10), echoing memories of his healthy first two years in Tuscaloosa. Ga Tech appears to once again be going nowhere fast.
Mississippi St. 82, Houston 65. MSU simply took control of this game, holding an 8-2 Houston team to 28% shooting in the process.
Vanderbilt 78, Massachusetts 48. Wow, a complete obliteration of UMass in Amherst by a team that had really shown next-to-nothing so far this year. Derek Kellogg has lost that team.
Louisville 74, Kentucky 71. Yeah, it’s an L for the SEC, but Kentucky has been playing better ball lately and took Louisville to the brink before Pitino whipping boy Edgar Sosa dropped a 25-foot three to win the game with 2.6 seconds remaining. There may not be a better inside/outside duo than UK’s Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson (50/18 in this game).
Most Impressive Win of the Weekend.Wake Forest 94, BYU 87. It was televised to all of six people in America on The Mountain network, but Wake going into the viper’s pit known as the Marriott Center in Provo where the Cougars had won their last 53 games against all comers was very impressive. This was especially so given that Wake was teetering in the mid-second half before their assassin Jeff Teague (30/4/4) and muscle man James Johnson (22/15) took over the game, as the tired BYU players starting coming up short on their shots. What’s the difference between this Wake team and some others (most notably, the Chris Paul teams) in the recent past? This Deacon squad plays defense. Whether it’s by design or simply the absurd athleticism that three potential lottery picks in the starting lineup (Teague/Johnson/Aminu) provide, their length and size bothers teams, and as a result, the Deacs are currently the fifth most efficient defensive team in America. The UNC-Wake game next Sunday in Winston-Salem looms large to see just how good this Deacon team can be.
What Has Happened to the Zags?Utah 66, Gonzaga 65. It’s almost as if that loss to UConn two weeks ago took all the wind out of the sails of the Zags. Since that game, they’ve lost at home to Portland St. and now away at Utah in a game they had multiple chances to win. Next they’re at Tennessee on Wednesday before WCC play starts. Meanwhile, conference foe St. Mary’s is cruising along at 14-1, although against admittedly lesser competition. As for the Zags, there is top ten talent on this team, and they need to stop feeling sorry for themselves because they lost a heartbreaking game. Jeremy Pargo in particular needs to get his team’s attention and back on the right track, and Austin Daye needs to improve his shot selection (a 6′11 guy shouldn’t be shooting 44% from the field); otherwise, America’s favorite “underdog” from the Pacific Northwest will once again disappoint in March.
USC is the Most Confounding Team in America.USC 83, Oregon 62 & Oregon St. 62, USC 58 (OT). USC once again has several future NBA Draft picks on its roster, but as has been a trend in recent years for the Trojans, they are just as likely to shock you with an efficient evisceration of an opponent as they are to simply not show up for the engagement at all. Case in point was the Oregon two-fer last weekend. On Friday night, the Trojans went into Oregon’s Macarthur Court (one of the tougher venues in the Pac-10, even in a year when Oregon is clearly down) and completely humiliated the Ducks with a +21-pt second half (probably its best half of the year). Then, riding that wave of success, USC visited Oregon St. on Sunday – remember, the Beavers went 0-18 in the Pac-10 last season – and managed to hand OSU its first conference victory in 683 days. If anyone can explain this team, let us know.
Some Other Scores That Caught Our Eye.
UNLV 56, Louisville 55. Of course, this was prior to the victory over their nemesis on Sunday, but the Louisville bugaboo of poor shooting (29.6%), weak guard play and a seeming lack of focus allowed UNLV (w/o Wink Adams) to come east and steal a victory. After this game, Edgar Sosa reportedly was asked to transfer by Coach Pitino – he responded with his best game in two years against Kentucky (18 pts).
Marquette 79, Villanova 72. Someone send us an email when you can figure out just how good either of these teams actually are. Both are two-loss guard-oriented teams that have similar RPI profiles (#29 and #30), capable of a major upset at any time, but not quite strong enough to reach the top tier of the Big East.
Arizona St. 90, Stanford 60. Has a BCS team ever defeated another BCS team by 45 points at home, only to lose by 30 points in the next week to another BCS team at home? That’s a 75-pt difference for you mathemagicians out there. Stanford followed up this blasting with another home win against Arizona on Sunday, so maybe the Cardinal just had a bad game against Herb Sendek’s team.
Xavier 84, Virginia 70. XU really needed to win this road game against an ACC team (even a likely bottom-dweller) to convince folks that their rough two game stretch against Duke and Butler last month is behind them.
Illinois St. 86, Creighton 64. ISU stamped itself as the team to beat in the MVC with this big home win on Saturday. Now 14-0, the Redbirds used a huge second half to blow the game open led by Osiris Eldridge’s 20/9.
Michigan 74, Illinois 64. This was a big win for John Beilein’s UM squad, because the Illini have been playing extremely well of late. Amazingly, after only two games, only Wisconsin and Michigan St. are unbeaten (2-0) in the Big Ten race.
Duke 69, Virginia Tech 44. A 13-point second half will not get it done in Cameron. Although Duke is #2 now, we still don’t believe in them in the long term. Only five points came off of their bench in this game.
California 81, Arizona St. 71. If this keeps up, Mike Montgomery will have to be in the conversation for NCOY. Two days after demolishing Stanford, Arizona St. got outhustled and outplayed in the second half (Cal shot 68% behind Jerome Randle’s 26/10 assts). This was two nights after putting away Arizona, 69-55. Monty has this program competing way ahead of schedule.
On Tap Tuesday. check our now-daily Set Your Tivos feature for the games to watch tomorrow.
Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist. He’ll be regularly out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.
Some notes before you check out the bracket:
You’ll notice I have Oklahoma, a 1-loss team from the Big 12, as a #1 seed over undefeated Wake Forest from the much more strong ACC. The reasoning for this is simple: 1) I take into account what will happen in the future in terms of conference champions, and I have the Sooners projected to win the Big 12 regular season and conference tournament, giving them a huge boost before Selection Sunday and 2) it’s simply unrealistic to have three #1 seeds from the same conference. Although Wake Forestis undefeated and Duke/UNC have 1 loss each, their SOS sits at a dismal #224 with their best wins vs. Baylor and @ BYU, while Duke and North Carolina have more quality wins and better computer numbers. If I’m ranking the top four teams in the nation, Wake is there. But a team finishing in third in the ACC (where I have them projected, could change) simply cannot receive a #1 seed. Sorry Deacon fans.
Once again, both Michigan State (#2), Tennessee (#3) and Memphis (#5) are slightly over-seeded for the same reason as Oklahoma. I have those teams winning their respective conference titles.
Hard to believe, but Mike Montgomery’s California Bears have earned the right to a #4 seed with their wins @ UNLV, @ Utah and home this week against Arizona and Arizona State. I spent like 15 minutes trying to find the last 4 seed.
Notre Dame took the hardest shot, slipping to a #7 seed with their bad loss at St. John’s. That Texas win looks excellent, but they need to take care of at home to avoid a 1-2 Big East start.Georgetown
Boston College’s stunning upset of North Carolina launched them to a #9 seed from the Last Team In.
On my bracket, Syracuse and Louisville could meet in the second round. The committee would obviously not let that happen, but I’m leaving it to avoid switching teams to seeds they don’t deserve.
George Mason took over the Colonial bid from Virginia Commonwealth while Saint Mary’s (13-1) earned the automatic bid from the West Coast Conference (Gonzaga is still in the field). With Illinois State’s thrashing of Creighton, they claim the Missouri Valley auto bid and jump a few seeds, while Creighton barely misses the field. UNLV now has the Mountain West bid with BYU still making the field. Stephen F. Austin, Oakland, Pacific and Morehead State are also new additions. Arkansas jumps into the bracket with their outstanding record and huge home win over Oklahoma.
In the end, four spots remained for 13 teams. Edgar Sosa’s buzzer beater gave Louisville the very last spot, edging out Miami (lacked quality wins), Creighton, Oklahoma State (best win was Rhode Island) and, speaking of which, Rhode Island. Also in consideration were South Carolina (beat Baylor this week but still has a 304 SOS), Washington (lacked quality wins), Utah (bad losses) and Arizona (what happened?). USC almost sneaked into consideration before losing to Oregon State. Yikes.
Last Four In: Louisville, LSU, Missouri, Florida State Last Four Out: Miami (FL), Creighton, Oklahoma State, Rhode Island Next Four Out: Washington, Utah, South Carolina, Arizona
Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist. He’ll be regularly out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.
Happy Holidays, everyone. My name is Zach Hayes and you might know me as a college hoops writer for the blog Northwestern Wins. Due to the unfortunate folding of that site, the head honchos here at Rush the Court graciously invited me on board as their Senior Bracketologist from now until Selection Sunday. Just think of me as Joe Lunardi but seven inches taller and without a hairpiece. Every Monday morning for the next six weeks or so a new bracket will be revealed until February heats up and multiple brackets per week will be released. I hope you guys enjoy this new RTC feature. For me, it’s just a ton of fun.
Quick disclaimers: The obvious one- it’s probably too early for bracketology (blasphemy! It’s never too early for this, how dare you! You know what I mean). RPI is still rounding into form at this point, and many key numbers I use from ESPN (Wins vs. Top 50, etc.) have yet to be released. I didn’t use much for this first bracket: record, conference strength, SOS, perused the individual schedules for quality wins/bad losses, and took RPI with a grain of salt. On the bracket you’ll notice I also made predictions for the entire tournament based on my matchups. Syracuse as the monumental upset should surprise no one that follows college basketball.
These seedings are based purely on performance thus far. If I was projecting future performance, I’d probably have Louisville in the tournament because they have to improve, right? Other than some of the mid-major/small conference auto-bids (i.e., I’m predicting Creighton takes the Missouri Valley even though you’d go with Illinois State by default), these are all based on the small amount of games played thus far. As you know, this entire operation will improve once teams complete more of their resumes.
RTC Bracket 12.22.08
Some explanations about the first edition (click brackets or right-click/view image to see a larger version):
The 1 seeds were pretty clear to me even before I began gathering info: North Carolina, Connecticut, Oklahoma and Pittsburgh. In fact, Pittsburgh and Oklahoma are 1-2 in RPI, respectively. Butler is #4 and Northwestern is #9, so take it for what it’s worth.
#2 seed Tennessee and #3 seed Michigan State are probably over-seeded for their performance this season. But I had to take into account that I have both teams pegged to win their conference tournaments, meaning three extra wins before Selection Sunday that will certainly boost their seed.
My bracket came down to 12 teams for 8 positions: California, Maryland, Florida State, Stanford, Miami, Boston College, Louisville, Kentucky, Dayton, Cincinnati, Illinois State and Arizona. As much as I wanted to deny Illinois State and Stanford because of their lack of any semblance of a quality win, they’re undefeated and I had to slip them in the field. Maryland has the wins over Michigan and Michigan State and Arizona has the win over Gonzaga, with two of their three losses by the narrowest of margins. Dayton is 10-1 and has the Marquette win, with their only loss at Creighton. Florida State has nice computer numbers and beat California, Cincinnati and Florida, meaning if they’re in, Cal has to be. Painfully, the final seed came down to Louisville (only average win: depleted Mississippi) and Boston College (only average wins: UAB, Providence, @Massachusetts). I went with BC.
Conference Winners: Vermont, Xavier, North Carolina, Stetson, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Portland State, VMI, Michigan State, Cal State Fullerton, VCU, Memphis, Butler, Cornell, Siena, Miami (OH), Hampton, Creighton, BYU, Quinnipiac, Murray State, UCLA, Navy, Tennessee, Davidson, Lamar, Alabama State, North Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, Utah State
Multiple bids per conference: Big East (8), ACC (7), Big 10 (7), Big 12 (6), Pac 10 (5), SEC (3), MVC (2), WCC (2), Atlantic 10 (2), MWC (2).
Last Four In: Boston College, Stanford, Florida State, California Last Four Out: Louisville, Cincinnati, Miami (FL), Kentucky
Any questions please leave them in the comments and I’ll do my best to respond.
Patrick Marshall of Bluejay Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley and Big 12 Conferences.
Predicted Order of Finish:
Creighton (27-4, 15-3)
Southern Illinois (25-6, 14-4)
Bradley (22-8, 12-6)
Illinois St. (22-8, 10-8)
Drake (21-10, 10-8)
Indiana St. (17-13, 7-11)
Wichita St. (15-15, 6-12)
Northern Iowa (15-15, 6-12)
Evansville (14-15, 6-12)
Missouri St. (13-17, 4-14)
WYN2K. Last season, Drake was predicted to finish 9th in the league and ended up having a dream season, winning the conference and the conference tournament, only to be knocked out by Western Kentucky in the first round of the NCAA tournament in a thrilling game. Most coaches from the Missouri Valley after a successful season jump ship and embrace the hype of their ability to move up into the major conferences – Steve Alford (Iowa at the time), Bruce Weber (Illinois), Matt Painter (Purdue), Greg McDermott (Iowa St.), Mark Turgeon (Texas A&M) and now Drake’s head man, Keno Davis. Davis jumped at the Providence job 26 days after taking Drake to its first NCAA Tournament in many, many years. The question that needs to be asked is whether Drake was that good or if the Valley was down last year. It was probably a combination of both. In the past, the Missouri Valley Conference has had multiple teams make the NCAA Tournament and the known teams in the conference will be making their return. Creighton has been in the postseason (NCAA or NIT) a conference-record eleven straight seasons and Southern Illinois last year broke their six-year streak of getting into the NCAA Tournament. Creighton has a ton of experience coming back whereas Southern Illinois is going back to their roots of tough defense and a solid floor general. Drake will not reach the same level as last year as they have their third different head coach in as many years. If Drake didn’t have the year they did last year, the story of the Valley would have been Illinois St. First year coach Tim Jankovich (who was an assistant at Kansas) was able to take advantage of the recruits of former coach Porter Moser and led this team to an unbelievable season themselves, but got destroyed on national TV in the Missouri Valley Tournament Championship game by Drake (79-49) and that was probably what kept them from being considered for the Big Dance. Valley Preseason Player of the Year Osiris Eldridge will be back to try to lead the Redbirds to another successful season. After getting to the finals of the inaugural CBI postseason tournament, Bradley is a tested team with experience that will make some noise this year. Former Creighton assistant and second-year head coach Kevin McKenna has started to turn the Indiana St. team around and will show improvement. Gregg Marshall is still trying to have the same success with Wichita St. that he had at Winhrop, but still has a lot of work to do. Northern Iowa gets out of the gate a ltitle behind with several injured players, one suspended for the first three games and one waiting until semester’s end to become eligible. MVC cheerleader and resident little man Barry Hinson is out at Missouri St. and did not leave a lot behind. Evansville is Evansville, although they have the advantage of returning all five starters from last season.
Predicted Champion.Creighton (NCAA #9). Creighton is the obvious choice as they have eight players returning that played 12 or more minutes a game. They also led the nation in bench scoring last year and there is enough talent on this team that the two players leading the nation in scoring off the bench without receiving a start (Booker Woodfox and Cavel Witter) may still not start this season. P’Allen Stinnett is the Jays’ POY candidate that can amaze and wow people with his athleticism, but will need to be a leader this season and play with emotion like he is known for (keeping it contained to keep from bugging officials and unnecessary fouls). Justin Carter comes in from the JUCO ranks as a scorer who may be able to step into the starting lineup sooner rather than later. The frontcourt may be a little suspect since they only have three players over 6’8 but it appears they have been to the weight room and if they make the impact as expected, they will solidify this team. Coach Dana Altman plans to have the high-pressure full-court defense back in motion this year to create turnovers. The veteran coach, the returning player experience and the ability to play high-pressure defense is what will cause Creighton to rise to the top. Also having eleven straight 20+ wins in a season is a streak that this team will not want to break. This team should be able to get to the NCAA Tournament and win a couple of games to continue to build this program. Here’s POY candidate P’Allen Stinnett rising up for a dunk.
NCAA/NIT Teams.
Southern Illinois(NCAA #13). SIU had a high-profile non-conference schedule last season due to recent success, but came up short in justifying their hype. Fortunately, the Salukis still have a high-profile non-conference schedule, but at the expense of playing marquee home games and instead going on the road to try to regain their notoriety. They have the opportunity to be the featured team with the likes of Duke, Michigan and UCLA by being a part of the 2K Sports College Hoops Classic if they win their home regional and advance to New York. They are also part of the John Wooden Tradition game against St. Mary’s. So the opportunities are there to be back in the spotlight for the Valley. SIU will be led by senior point guard Bryan Mullins who was the Valley Defensive Player of the year and a solid leader. The supporting cast is hyped as SIU’s best recruiting class ever and they had the opportunity to go to Canada over Labor Day to get familiar and some early playing time. However a little blow came after the Canada trip when 3-point specialist Joshua Bone (at least he has seemed like that every time I have watched him) had a tough trip and decided to leave the team once they returned. That is one less player with experience. So there will be a bit of a learning curve this season for Southern Illinois, but their tradition and fan base will keep them in contention and they should have enough to make it back to the NCAAs after settling for the NIT last season.
Bradley (NIT). People reading this who are knowledgeable of the Valley probably think I am crazy for having Bradley ranked so high compared to their own views and what other publications have written. However, it was three short seasons ago that Bradley was in the Sweet 16. Like it or not Jim Les has developed quite a program with Bradley. Last season because of injuries, suspensions and other various reasons, the actual starting lineup that was expected to be on the floor didn’t occur very much, but last year’s team was a solid team. Being able to be a part of the initial CBI basketball tournament gave them the chance to play longer than most Valley teams and an opportunity to improve in areas for this season. With the trio of point guard Sam Maniscalco, guard Andrew Warren and forward Theron Wilson provide a good starting group of players that if the newcomers gel could make some noise. However, Bradley probably does not have enough firepower to win the Valley this season, and are otherwise borderline in making the NCAA tournament so they probably will be in the NIT.
Illinois St. (NIT). The Illinois St. defense was a stalwart last season as they were 11th nationally in points allowed per game (59.3). Osiris Aldridge will be looked upon to continue his conference leading scoring along with the additions of transfers Champ Oguchi (Oregon) and Landon Shipley (Austin Peay). The Redbirds’ frontcourt will be decimated to start the year as forwards BrandonSampay and Bobby Hill are expected to be out until January due to injuries. So this team will just be starting to gel under a cupcake non-conference schedule and these players will be coming back once conference season starts. It may take a while for this team then to adjust to the higher level of play and integrating these players back into the lineup which will keep Illinois St. from returning to the Big Dance this season. The non-conference slate that has an RPI average of 215 is well below standards of the Valley and will not jump onto anyone’s page as an at-large team for the NCAA Tournament. Unless they win the conference tournament, it is the NIT for them.
Drake (NIT).Mark Phelps takes over the Bulldogs and has now been tasked with high expectations after last year’s remarkable season. Gone is the point guard, Adam Emmenecker, who really made things gel for Drake last season. However they return “Bucky” Cox who likes to shoot threes more than play inside and All-MVC pick Josh Young at guard. Keno Davis did not go too deep into his bench last season so a lot of players come in inexperienced. Also, Davis did not really talk to players extensively and sort of let the players play their game. On the other hand, new coach Phelps is more of a talker, telling the team the things they need to do that may take some adjustment. Both the coach and the team like the 3-ball so that will help the team stay on a common ground, but the moving back of the 3-point line will affect them if they live and die by the three. The Bulldogs are the hunted and not the hunters this season and will suffer through a year of transition and will probably settle for the NIT this season. In the meantime, Drake fans will still have this to remember…
Others.
Indiana St. This team took a hit when its leading returning scorer Marico Stinson unexpectedly left the team and the university, but is on an upswing with a solid coach. Look for them to make some noise next season.
Wichita St. Only one returning starter and several new players will still try to find an identity while Gregg Marshall tries to look like he is not mad at the world.
Northern Iowa. UNI gets out of the gate a little slowly with injuries and players missing from the team that won’t be able to play right away. With coach Ben Jacobsen on the hot seat, he cannot afford to have another mediocre season after what Greg McDermott did with the team before Jacobsen’s tenure. It may show the recruiting or coaching ability is not there.
Evansville. This team is still rebuilding as half the team is still freshman and sophomores though they have an advantage of returning all five starters. However, they will need a lot of help inside and that is not there yet.
Missouri St. The most exciting thing Missouri St. fans have to look forward to is the new $67M JQH Arena.
RPI Boosters / Key Games.
The key to this conference getting multiple bids is to have success against BCS and high mid-major teams. Unfortunately, home games for the Valley teams are far and few between.
Missouri St. @ Auburn (11.14.08)
Bradley @ Florida (CBE Classic) (11.16.08)
Southern Illinois @ 2K Sports College Classic vs. Duke and Michigan/UCLA, but of course have to get out of their regional to get to New York. (11.20-21.08)
Missouri St. vs. Arkansas (11.22.08)
Wichita St. @ Old Spice classic vs. Georgetown and Maryland, Michigan St., or Gonzaga. (11.27-30.08)
Northern Iowa vs. Marquette (Chicago Invitational) (11.28.08)
Northern Iowa vs. Auburn (Chicago Invitational) (11.29.08)
Indiana St. @ Depaul (11.29.08)
Drake vs. Vanderbilt (Cancun Tourney) (11.29.08)
Wichita St. @ Texas Tech (12.03.08)
Creighton @ St. Josephs (12.06.08)
Indiana St @ Louisville (12.06.08)
Bradley @ Michigan St. (12.07.08)
Creighton vs. Dayton (12.10.08)
Indiana St. @ Purdue (12.13.08)
Evansville @ North Carolina (12.18.08)
Southern Illinois v. St. Mary’s (12.20.08) (Wooden Tradition)
Creighton vs. Depaul (in Vegas possibly) (12.23.08)
Drake and Northern Iowa also benefit from a state law requiring Iowa and Iowa St. to play both Valley teams each year which adds and extra large conference school to their schedule.(ed. note: apparently this is a myth… thanks, readers)
Then you have the key conference games that will decide the conference champ.
Creighton vs. Southern Illinois (01.14.09)
Bradley vs. Illinois St. (01.29.09)
Southern Illinois vs. Creighton (02.14.09)
Drake vs. Southern Illinois (02.25.09)
Creighton vs. Illinois St. (02.26.09)
Drake vs. Bradley (02.28.09)
Neat-O Stat. Home Sweet Home. The Missouri Valley Conference is known for defending its home court. Southern Illinois is 92-6 in overall home games since 2001-02 and is 61-2 against conference opponents at home during that same period. During that same period, Creighton is 97-17 at home. Since Creighton opened the Qwest Center in 2003-04, the Jays are 66-13 at home. These are just a couple of examples of why major conference teams don’t want to visit Valley schools.
65 Team Era. The MVC is a multiple-bid league, having before last season gone a decade between single-bid years (1998 to 2008). In the 24-year history of this era, the league has only gotten one bid seven times, and even got as many as four in the high-water mark of 2006. Despite an average seed of #10.2 over this period, the Valley has gone 22-45 (.329) and put seven different teams into the Sweet 16, including S. Illinois in 2007 and both Wichita St. and Bradley in 2006. What’s more, in the last six years, MVC teams play teams tough, losing by an average of 6.1 pts in their knockout games (only one double-digit loss in 14 games). We see 2008 as a one-year blip, and have no reason to believe the MVC won’t continue to put numerous teams into the Dance and have them succeed.
Final Thoughts. If Creighton plays to its potential they could easily run away with the conference and have a chance to make some noise in the Big Dance. The 2-5 spots will be a dog fight between the established Southern Illinois and the questions of the one-year wonders of Drake and Illinois St. Bradley will stick its nose in and cause a little disruption in the league similar to what Drake did last year and could be the big surprise. If the Valley teams can win their high-profile non-conference games, the league will be recognized again as a powerful conference. No significant wins by the Valley in the non-conference could unfortunately put them in obscurity for another season. However, I say to look for the Valley to be a multiple-bid league once again this season and to make an impact on the college basketball world.
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2010 conference tournaments | Tagged: adam leonard, bradley, casey harriman, chad millard, chris lowery, colt ryan, creighton, dana altman, denver holmes, dinma odiokosa, drake, dwayne latham, evansville, gregg marshall, harry marshall, illinois st, indiana st, jake kelly, jim les, jordan eglseder, josh young, justin carter, kenny lawson, kevin mckenna, kyle weems, lloyd phillips, missouri st, mvc, northern iowa, osiris eldridge, p'allen stinnett, southern illinois, wichita st | 
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