Thursday, March 18 (all CBS)
12:20pm - Florida vs. BYU
12:25pm - ODU vs. Notre Dame
2:30pm - Murray St vs. Vandy
2:45pm - SHSU vs. Baylor
2:50pm - St. Mary's vs. Richmond
4:45pm - UTEP vs. Butler
7:10pm - UNI vs. UNLV
7:20pm - Wash vs. Marquette
9:35pm - Wake Forest vs. Texas
9:40pm - New Mexico vs. Montana
9:45pm - SDSU vs. Tennessee
Each week RTC will posit a That’s Debatable question or topic that is relevant to the world of college basketball. Sometimes whimsical, sometimes serious, we’ll post the thoughts of our core editing crew (in 200 words or less), but we’ll also be expanding to include our contributors and correspondents as appropriate throughout the season. We also invite you, the readers, to join us as we mull over some of the questions facing the game today. Feel free to send us your takes and/or leave them in the comments below.
This Week’s Topic:Thanksgiving week is upon us, and families everywhere around the country will come together to give thanks for the numerous people and things important to them. What will some of the nation’s top college basketball coaches give thanks for during this week of reflection and thought?
nvr1983 – editor/contributor, RTC
One of the people who should be thankful this Thanksgiving is Thad Matta. When last season ended two of his players were contemplating leaving school early to go to the NBA: B.J. Mullens and Evan Turner. While Mullens was the more highly rated recruit, he hadn’t quite lived up to those expectations. Although Turner was no slouch in high school (he was a 4-star recruit), he didn’t come to Columbus with the same expectations. By the end of last season, both players we predicted to be mid- to late-first round picks. As you all know Mullens decided to leave school early and ended up being selected #24 overall by the Mavericks before being traded to the Thunder where he is averaging 3 PPG and 1 RPG in 15.8 MPG. Turner decided to stay in Columbus for at least one more season and is the early favorite for National Player of the Year after starting the season averaging 21.8 PPG (on 59% FG), 14.8 RPG, 6 APG, and 1.8 SPG for the Buckeyes. If Mullens had stayed and Turner had left OSU wouldn’t be a top 25 team, but because the roles were reversed they could be a top 10 team.
rtmsf – editor/contributor, RTC
While many coaches across the land will give thanks this week for a top recruit or a big win or still having a paying job, BYU coach Dave Rose will be thankful that he’s still around to coach his team. You see, on June 17 of last summer, Rose was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, and as far as pancreatic cancers go, his wasn’t the worst kind, but seeing those two words together (“pancreatic” and “cancer”) is never a good thing. He had emergency surgery the very next day to remove part of his spleen and pancreas, and after a quick recovery, he now sits as the head coach of a strong 3-0 team with aspirations to win the Mountain West and make some noise in this year’s NCAA Tournament. Oh, and did I mention that all tests show that he is completely cancer-free? BYU feels so highly about Rose that the school gave him a 5-year extension through the 2014 season, showing their faith in both his coaching acumen as well as his health. There’s no greater gift than the one of life, and Rose is undoubtedly living each day as if it were his last — now that’s something to be thankful for!
JaJuan Johnson (C), Purdue (112.3 ORtg, 8.1 Block Percentage)
6th Man. Robbie Hummel (F), Purdue.
Impact Newcomer.D.J. Richardson (G), Illinois.
What You Need to Know.
The Big 10 is Very Good This Year. No, really, we mean it. Last year we predicted mediocrity, and I think we were mostly right. Although Michigan State had a great run in the tournament, it was not a Final Four team “on paper.” Indeed, the efficiency margins of the teams were bunched closely together, without any real spectacular performers. Sure, lots of teams made the Dance, but not a lot of them garnered high seeds. But we think that will be different this season, mostly because the Big Ten didn’t lose anyone. Sure, B.J. Mullens is gone, as are standouts Marcus Landry, Craig Moore and Jamelle Cornley. But the conference’s best players all returned, including the entire all-conference 1st Team. Throw in some strong recruiting classes, and you’ve got what appears to be the conference’s best year in possibly a decade. Although there’s not a lot of star quality to this conference–there might be less than 10 NBA players among the 11 teams–there is the experience that can take you far in March.
Michigan Stateand Purdue are the expected frontrunners, but they have company this year. Both the Spartans and Boilermakers return most of the minutes from good teams, so there’s no reason why one of them can’t win the conference crown. But watch out for Ohio State and (especially) Minnesota. They returned more minutes than anyone, and they also both have a couple other things going for them. For Ohio State, you might be talking about the most talented starting five in the conference, and one of the best in the country. With the Gophers, you have an incredibly deep roster. So deep that athletic freak and top 50 recruit Rodney Williams will fight for playing time. When these teams are grabbing high seeds on Selection Sunday, don’t forget where you heard it first.
It’s no secret that the high school Class of 2008 was one of the weakest in recent memory. Coming into the 2008-09 regular season, could you realistically point to any one player who would impact their team enough to become another Derrick Rose or a Michael Beasley (class of 2007), a Greg Oden or a Kevin Durant (class of 2006)? No way, right? The consensus #1 player, Brandon Jennings, high-tailed it to Europe when it became apparent he wasn’t going to become eligible to play college ball at Arizona, where he proceeded to burn up foreign nets at the clip of 6 ppg and 2 apg in limited action (17 mpg). The rest of the elite remained stateside, but from Jrue Holiday on down to his teammate Malcolm Lee at UCLA, the collegians too had middling degrees of success. We use the RSCI top 20 ratings provided by Statsheet for our table below.
The last two summers (here are 2007 and 2008), we’ve taken it upon ourselves to review how these one-and-dones did during their freshman year to determine whether their presence on campus for a mere 6-8 months was worth it for the schools involved. As it turned out this time around, only four college freshmen (+ Jennings) thought they were ready for the NBA Draft after only one season, so let’s take a look at how things turned out for them and their teams last year.
2009 One-and-Dones
Memphis – Worth It. After losing three starters from their 2008 national runner-up team, Memphis could have slid back into relative mediocrity by Tiger standards – very good, but not great. One-and-doner Tyreke Evans prevented that from happening. He averaged 17/5/4 assts/2 stls in 29 mpg and was the most efficient player on the team. He also showed that he was a gamer, dropping 33 huge points in the Tigers’ loss to Missouri and leading a furious comeback from 24 points down in that contest. More importantly, Memphis was 6-3 and ranked #24 in the nation when Evans moved from the shooting guard to the point guard slot; the Tigers then ran off 27 straight wins en route to a #2 seed and another Sweet Sixteen appearance, much of it due to Evans’ command of the team. Furthermore, prior to John Calipari’s departure, Memphis was building a pretty impressive reputation as a successful stopover for NBA-level point guards. Is there any coincidence that John Wall followed Calipari to Kentucky after seeing what Evans and Rose were able to do at Memphis? We’d have to say that Tyreke Evans coming to Memphis for one year was most definitely worth it for that program.
USC – Worth It. USC knew when they signed Demar DeRozan that they were unlikely to have this acrobatic swingman on campus for more than one year. For much of that year, however, it wasn’t looking like a good fit. Three points in a loss vs. Seton Hall. A 2-9 shooting night against Missouri. Six turnovers and fouling out of another loss at Washington. But around midseason, as things began to click in DeRozan’s game, USC benefitted. He provided a consistent threat on the wing and may arguably have been the Trojans’ top option in the last six weeks of the season. His season numbers were good – 14/6 on 52% shooting – but his stats from February on were better – 16/7 on 54% shooting with 22 of his season-total 51 assists coming in the last nine games. USC rode DeRozan’s playmaking abilities to win its first-ever Pac-10 Tournament and a convincing win over BC in the NCAAs before succumbing to national runner-up Michigan St in the second round. Or, in others words, more than what OJ Mayo was able to produce as a one-and-doner in 2007. Notwithstanding all the choas that has enveloped this program in the interim, we’d have to say that getting DeRozan to USC for one year was worth it.
Ohio St. – Not Worth It. For the third year in a row, Thad Matta lost a one-and-done player whose actual performance during his only season in Columbus didn’t really mesh with what you might expect from an elite prospect. He lost Daequan Cook in 2007 (along with stars Greg Oden and Mike Conley, Jr.), Kosta Koufos last year, and BJ Mullens this season. To date, we’ve yet to see any indication that Mullens has any discernible basketball skill other than being big (7′0). He averaged 9/5 in about 20 mpg with only two starts over the course of the season, but as an indication of how much Matta ultimately valued him, Mullens’ minutes tailed off considerably in the last 6-8 games. His defense was often considered suspect (37 blks all season) and he earned a reputation for loafing and failing to get back downcourt after an offensive possession. OSU had a solid season, mostly on the back of super-soph Evan Turner, but it’s difficult to construct an argument that Mullens brought much of anything to the Buckeye program other than an ability to get drafted in the first round. Ultimately, that may have been all Matta wanted to get from him, as he’s shown a substantial willingness to take one-and-dones every year that he can. Still, we don’t think that Mullens was on balance a good pickup for the Buckeyes, so we’re saying that he wasn’t worth it.
UCLA – Not Worth It. After Kevin Love’s departure from Westwood as a one-and-done, we thought UCLA might continue that trend this season with another superb guard ranked #2 in his class named Jrue Holiday. We were wrong. Holiday is exceptionally athletic, but he never seemed to ‘get it’ with respect to how Ben Howland runs his team and expects his players to execute. When we watched Holiday play, we saw a player who had a tendency to play out of control and get frustrated when things weren’t going his way (in other words, like most freshmen). Had Holiday stuck around for another couple of years at UCLA, he probably could have tamed his tendencies to become an elite guard in college basketball, but we’ll never know. After averaging a mere 9/4/4 assts as a starter who seriously tailed off down the stretch (single figure points in 10 of his last 13 games) ending in a second round NCAA blowout loss to Villanova, Howland may be questioning why he bothered to take this player for only one season. His contributions to the program were minimal and his general unhappiness with the program could actually end up hurting UCLA’s recruiting in the future more than it ever helps to have gotten him. Unlike Demar DeRozan across town at USC, Holiday wasn’t worth it.
*Brandon Jennings – Push. Of course, this is a weird situation because Jennings didn’t play for an American college last season, instead deciding to go to the Italian leagues and get paid for his services. He would have been drafted higher last season had he been eligible to come out, but then again, so would have all these one-and-doners except for Evans (who at #4 is about where he would have been last year). Playing in Europe didn’t hurt him very much despite his paltry stats, but it didn’t appear to help him, either, in any way other than financially. It’ll be interesting to watch how he develops in the NBA now. You’d have to believe that Jennings’ previously indomitable confidence would be somewhat tempered after spending a year as the backup-cum-waterboy. We’re quite certain he had images in his head of going to Italy and winning MVP in his rookie season, but the broken American basketball system doesn’t exactly inspire schoolboy humility. Will that carry over to his development as an NBA player, or will he be able to accept his European comeuppance and use that to improve his game in the next few years? There’s no way of knowing at this point.
One-and-Dones: Historical Snapshot
As stated above, RTC has done this for the three years in which the one-and-done rule has been in existence. We’ve made a qualitative determination as to whether recruiting a particular one-and-done was worth it for each program, and what we’ve found is that so far it’s been a roughly equivalent proposition. Of the 24 one-and-dones in three years, we’ve found thirteen instances (57%) where the player in question was either worth it or well worth it, “it” being the trouble of landing a top player and dealing with the disruption and potential hole he leaves in the program after one season. Additionally, in seven of the thirteen ‘worth it’ instances, we found that the player was such a great boost to the program in terms of success and marketing that the residual effects of his presence there will be felt for many years after he’s gone (e.g., OSU and Memphis making it to the NCAA Championship Game). On the other hand, we can only count ten occasions (42%) where a one-and-done player wasn’t worth the trouble of getting him into the program. So let’s look at it this way… if you were a college coach and you knew you had a historically better than even chance that recruiting a John Wall or Derrick Favors would end up making your program better, and a 25-30% chance of truly elevating your program into an elite echelon, there’s no question you do it, right? What’s the downside? Your player doesn’t do a whole lot, leaves after one year and you end up where you were before he got there. Exactly. Not only is recruiting one-and-dones worth the risk (so long as you’re doing it legally, Tim Floyd), but if you’re not doing it then you’re putting yourself at a serious competitive disadvantage.
It’s a little less than an hour before tonight’s NBA Draft, and this should have probably been done days ago, but we wanted to use our undeniable RTC expertise when it comes to projecting college hoops talent to the pros so we can say “told ya so” when the one undervalued player we said would be a star pans out (while the other ten we said would be don’t, but let’s not quibble). We’ll use Andy Katz’s final mock draft from this morning, and we’re only going to evaluate college players (because we’ve seen them play for at least one year). The criteria is BOOM or BUST – either that player is undervalued or overvalued based on his selection. That’s it. Here we go…
1. Blake Griffin, Oklahoma - BOOM, although the fact that he’s going to ClipperLand means drug addiction and/or horrific injury. Bill Simmons agrees.
2. Hasheem Thabeet, UConn – BUST, his offensive game won’t develop any further and he’s no Dikembe.
4. Tyreke Evans, Memphis – BUST, not seeing it at this selection; opposing defenses can lay off of him out to 18 feet.
5. James Harden, Arizona St. – BOOM, a Joe Johnson/Monta Ellis clone. Kid can really play.
6. Stephen Curry, Davidson – BUST, limitless range but really, #6? Too many question marks to be this high.
7. Jordan Hill, Arizona – BUST, nice player but he’s not even as good as Big Baby.
8. Jrue Holiday, UCLA – BUST, classic example of being a better athlete than player.
9. Demar DeRozan, USC – BOOM, DeRozan really came on at the end of the season and appears poised to break out.
10. Jonny Flynn, Syracuse – BUST, is Flynn really the best true point in this draft? No way.
11. Terrence Williams, Louisville – BUST, seems like the kind of player who will be out of the league in 3 years (does everything well, nothing great).
12. Gerald Henderson, Duke – BOOM, second best guard in the draft behind Harden.
13. DeJuan Blair, Pittsburgh – HEDGE, this is about the right position for an undersized beast like Blair.
14. Earl Clark, Louisville – BOOM, should have been higher but has a reputation for being lazy. Will shed that and become an excellent NBAer.
15. Austin Daye, Gonzaga – BUST, we used to love this guy, but he hasn’t shown much improvement in two years of college. We don’t believe in him.
16. BJ Mullens, Ohio St. – HUGE BUST, this is a joke. Either he’ll be washing cars in two years with Patrick O’Bryant or turn into Chris Kaman, who knows?
17. Ty Lawson, UNC – BOOM, he’s proven that he’s a winner and has improved his game substantially. Could be TJ Ford w/o the back problems.
18. James Johnson, Wake Forest – BOOM, has a reputation for being lazy, but he’s silky smooth at his size and will succeed in this league.
19. Tyler Hansbrough. UNC – HEDGE, we all know what kind of player he’ll be. Average at best.
20. Sam Young, Pittsburgh – BOOM, an absolute steal at this pick; Young could end up being a star.
21. Jeff Teague, Wake Forest – BOOM, would have been a lottery pick had he not packed in the second half of the year; the talent and athleticism is apparent.
24. Eric Maynor, VCU - HEDGE, nice pickup for this position.
25. Jon Brockman, Washington – BUST, sorry, but Brockman just isn’t NBA material in the long run.
26. Toney Douglas, Florida St. – HEDGE, could go either way here, but we’d expect Douglas to find a niche in the League.
27. Darren Collison, UCLA – BUST, Collison has always struck us as someone who should have been better than he was.
29. Nick Calathes, Florida – BOOM, Calathes will find a way to make himself a good pro if he decides to play in good ole USA instead of Greece.
30. DaJuan Summers, Georgetown – BUST, but it’s worth a gamble given his natural abilities. Could become a defensive stalwart at some point if he tried.
While most of the nation has been fixated on the Final 4 and the circus going on in Lexington, which is probably over (for now), several players have decided to enter the NBA Draft. Here’s the list:
DaJuan Summers (Georgetown, junior)–#47 in Chad Ford’s Top 100/#47 in the DraftExpress Top 100
Nick Calathes (Florida, sophomore)–#38 in Chad Ford’s Top 100/#73 in the DraftExpress Top 100
Patrick Christopher (California, junior)–Unranked
Brandon Costner (NC State, junior)–Unranked
Greivis Vasquez (Maryland, junior)–#55 in Chad Ford’s Top 100/#78 in the DraftExpress Top 100
B.J. Mullens (Ohio State, freshman)–#21 in Chad Ford’s Top 100/#15 in the DraftExpress Top 100
Summers is the only one who appears to be in the process of selecting an agent, but don’t expect to see Mullens back in Columbus next year as he did not even register for spring classes accordging to some reports.
We’d like to apologize for our coverage yesterday. We had some technical/communication issues regarding the post yesterday, but I’ll be back covering the games today so everything should be back to normal. Here’s a quick rundown of the games we’ll be covering today:
Early Games
12:15 PM: #14 Stephen F. Austin vs. #3 Syracuse
12:25 PM: #9 Tennessee vs. #8 Oklahoma State
12:30 PM: #11 Utah State vs. #6 Marquette
12:30 PM: #14 North Dakota State vs. #3 Kansas
Afternoon Games
2:45 PM: #11 Temple vs. #6 Arizona State
2:55 PM: #16 East Tennessee State vs. #1 Pittsburgh
3:00 PM: #14 Cornell vs. #3 Missouri
3:00 PM: #11 Dayton vs. #6 West Virginia
Evening Games
7:10 PM: #16 Morehead State vs. #1 Louisville
7:10 PM: #12 Arizona vs. #5 Utah
7:20 PM: #10 USC vs. #7 Boston College
7:25 PM: #13 Portland State vs. #4 Xavier
Late Night Games
9:40 PM: #9 Siena vs. #8 Ohio State
9:40 PM: #13 Cleveland State vs. #4 Wake Forest
9:50 PM: #15 Robert Morris vs. #2 Michigan State
9:55 PM: #12 Wisconsin vs. #5 Florida State
Quite frankly, today’s slate looks a lot more interesting than what was on yesterday. There are 3 games in each of the 4 groups that seem like they will be entertaining except for the afternoon set where only the 6/11 match-ups really catch my eyes. Feel free to leave your thoughts or questions on any of these games or the ones from yesterday in the comment section. I’ll be back around noon to cover the day’s action.
12:15 PM: Ok. We’re about to get underway. I was a little delayed by the fact that the bus to RTC East decided to pick up 3 people in wheelchairs, which slowed down my trip significantly (had to get them in/out during 6 stops). Is anybody rooting for Stephen F. Austin just because they can’t stand Eric Devendorf?
12:20 PM: “The best look the Lumberjacks have had so far”? That was only their 2nd possession of the game. The crows is awful in Miami. I know its early, but there is nobody there. I have to say the NCAA did a pretty poor job with their pod placement. I’ll have to double check, but Miami is probably the worst pod location in terms of distance from the participating schools (and the fact that they don’t care about sports in Miami).
12:30 PM: Rough start for Stephen F. Austin in Miami. Already down 10-2. Hopefully they can keep it close although this was probably the game that was the most likely to be a blowout in this group.
12:35 PM: Did anybody pick upsets in this group of games? I have North Dakota State and Utah State.
12:40 PM: Good game in Dayton (Ok State 14, Tennessee 13 with 12:20 left in the first half). In Boise, Lazar Hayward is up 7-5 on Utah State.
Welcome back to the weekend edition of Boom Goes the Dynamite. First off I’d like to commend rtmsf for his strong work on yesterday’s BGtD. You guys really have no idea how exhausting it is doing a full day’s worth of this is and he managed to do it with only a short break although it almost caused me to give up working on the site after being forced to endure the American-Holy Cross game yesterday. As he outlined in his After the Buzzer post last night/this morning, there are 12 conference championship games today. For the sake of maintaining our sanity and having enough energy in the tank for our huge March Madness preview, we’ll be taking multiple shifts but we promise to coordinate it so you won’t miss anything during our handoffs.
6:00 AM: Yes. That’s actually the time I’m starting this thanks to a “short nap” that ended up going from 9 PM to 5 AM. Obviously my posts will be infrequent in the early morning hours, but I’ll be passing along some news and links to you before the games start at 11 AM. The New York Times has been stepping it up with their college sports blog “The Quad” recently and has an interesting post on Louisville’s Terrence Williams and his pre-game ritual of the giving himself a pep talk during the national anthem. Before anybody thinks this might be a Chris Jackson Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf situation, it should be noted that Williams actually stands during the anthem and is supposedly talking about family members that he has lost and asking that everyone on the court avoids injuries. Of course, we can’t verify this, but if we have any lip-readers in our vast legion of RTC readers, we would love hear your take on this particularly if you have seen this is in person.
7:00 AM: Before I head out for a few minutes to take care of some errands like stocking up on groceries for the coming storm where I probably won’t leave my apartment for 3 weeks. I thought I would pass along one of my favorite things we are doing at RTC right now. We enlisted the help of our correspondents and got them to send us their favorite March memories. We narrowed down the submissions to the 16 best entries and are counting down to #1, which will be revealed on Wednesday (the day before the tournament starts). I’d encourage you to check out the entries we have so far and keep on coming back throughout the day to see what they selected as their favorite March memories and then chime in with your memories on those moments.
8:45 AM: Ok. False alarm on that grocery run. Apparently Costco doesn’t open until 9:30 so after this post I’ll be on a short break. So today’s RTC East breakfast is brought to you by Flour Bakery and consists of their Bobby Flay-slaying “Sticky Buns” and a twice-baked brioche. Here’s a quick run-down of the games (title game in red–there’s a lot of red) that I will be focusing on today:
Early Games
UMBC vs. Binghamton at 11 AM on ESPN2 for the America East title
Memphis vs. #3 Tulsa at 11:35 AM on CBS for the Conference USA title
Afternoon Games
Mississippi State vs. #16 LSU at 1 PM on ESPN2 and Raycom in the SEC semifinals
#6 Michigan State vs. Ohio State at 1:30 PM on CBS in the Big 10 semifinals
#1 UNC vs. #22 FSU at 1:30 PM on ESPN and Raycom in the ACC semifinals
Tennessee vs. Auburn at 3 PM on ESPN2 and Raycom in the SEC semifinals
Maryland vs. #8 Duke at 3:30 PM on ESPN and Raycom in the ACC semifinals
#25 Illinois vs. #24 Purdue at 4 PM on CBS in the Big 10 semifinals
Evening Games
#23 Arizona State vs. USC at 6 PM on CBS for the Pac-10 title
Baylor vs. #15 Missouri at 6 PM on ESPN for the Big 12 title
Temple vs. Duquesne at 6 PM on ESPN2 for the Atlantic 10 title
Late Night Games
San Diego State vs. Utah at 7 PM on Versus for the Moutain West title
Morgan State vs. Norfolk State at 7 PM on ESPNU for the MEAC title (Periodic score updates for this one)
Buffalo vs. Akron at 8 PM on ESPN2 for the MAC title
#5 Louisville vs. #20 Syracuse at 9 PM on ESPN for the Big East title
Jackson State vs. Alabama State at 9 PM on ESPNU for the SWAC title (Periodic score updates for this one)
Utah State vs. Nevada at 10 PM on ESPN2 for the WAC title
Cal State-Northridge vs. Pacific at 11:59 PM on ESPN2 for the Big West title (This one is questionable)
10:55 AM: Ok. I’m back from my extended Costco run and have enough food to last me through the week. A quick summary on the early games. In the America East, Binghamton is a 5-6 point favorite (depending on your gambling establishment of choice). Honestly, I’m surprised that they aren’t bigger favorites since they come in at 22-8 while UMBC comes in 15-16 and the game is at Binghamton. It could be interesting though as they split the season series in the regular season with Binghamton winning the last game of the regular season at home against UMBC 71-51. I’m guessing the America East commissioner is rooting for UMBC to avoid the embarrassment of the CBS announcers having to explain why the conference’s regular season leading scorer (D.J Rivera) was left off the all-conference team. In Conference USA, Memphis is a 14-point favorite against Tulsa. Memphis might be playing for a #1 seed even with their ridiculously easy schedule. We’re hoping this game is more like the first time they met (a 55-54 Memphis win) rather the last time they met (a 63-37 Memphis win). I have a sneaking suspicion that it is going to be more like the latter, but we’ll be following it anyways to get a last look at Memphis before CBS’s new Billy Packer rips the NCAA selection committee for putting them over a Big East team.
With Arkansas Little-Rock right in the thick of the Sun Belt Conference Title race at 20-7 (13-3), Coach Steve Shields has kicked his leading scorer off the team.
UNC’s Ginyard Out for the Year. No surprise here, but UNC made it official today – Marcus Ginyard’s stress fracture will keep him out of the lineup for the rest of this season. A lot has been written about UNC missing Ginyard’s sticky defense, especially on the perimeter, but at least statistically, the Heels are playing better defense this year than last (even though it’s a marginal difference). Where Ginyard is missed is at the three-point line, where teams are shooting a better-than-expected 32.4% against them. As anyone who has watched this game before knows, hot three-point shooting in March has sunk many a good team, so this would be the one area where a Heel fan should worry the rest of the way – it’s unlikely to improve.
Game of the Night.Ohio St. 80, Purdue 72 (OT). We just can’t figure out the Big 10 this season. As soon as we thought Michigan St. was ready to run away with the league, they lost home games to Northwestern and Penn St. Then we thought Illinois might be poised to move into the top position before they laid a gigantic 36-pt omelet at Minnesota last week. Ok, so what about Purdue? It appeared they were well on their way to taking over the league when Robbie Hummel’s back went out again. So what about Ohio St.? The Buckeyes are still a couple of games behind MSU, but Evan Turner is really coming on (averaging 26.3 ppg in his last three), and BJ Mullens (17/8 tonight) is finally showing some of the promise that being a Burger Boy bestowed. Right now OSU looks like an NCAA Tournament team, and with Thad Matta’s March history, we wouldn’t want to face this team as they continue to grow.
Deconstructing Marquette.Marquette 76, Depaul 61. MU improved to 9-0 in the Big East, which we still contend is the best top-half of a conference we’ve ever seen. So how are they doing it? Well, for one, fortuitous scheduling within the league. Thus far the Golden Eagles have managed to avoid UConn, Pitt, Louisville and Syracuse, while catching Georgetown and Notre Dame in slumps. Still, you don’t win nine consecutive in this league without doing something right, and Marquette is getting tremendous in-conference production from its quartet of Jerel McNeal (24/5/5 assts), Wesley Matthews (19/5), Lazar Hayward (15/7) and Dominic James (13/4/5 assts). In fact, McNeal, Matthews and Hayward each rank in the top 60 players in the nation in efficiency during conference games, so you know that these guys are absolutely ripping it up. What else? Well, their offense is very efficient (#6 nationally) and they don’t turn the ball over much, but other than that, nothing jumps out statistically about this team (which might be a sign). All we know from watching them is that their guards seem to have a sense of the moment, and often make big shots in the clutch. Remember last year’s R32 game against Stanford? Big shot after big shot went down – it took a Brook Lopez fadeaway roller to knock Marquette from a trip to the Sweet 16. This is truly a team that plays better than its individual parts, and although we keep waiting for a team with size to give them trouble, we’re still waiting.
Other Scores As We’re Less than Six Weeks From Selection Sunday.
San Diego St. 68, UNLV 66. HUGE win for SDSU at UNLV tonight to take the lead in the Mtn West. The Aztecs are in good position to win this league now, with only one really tough road game remaining (at Utah).
Georgetown 57, Rutgers 47. Yeah, Georgetown won a game for the first time in three weeks, but it’s still troubling that the Hoyas were outrebounded by 3 against a 1-9 Big East team.
Mississippi St. 66, Kentucky 57. It appears that the SEC has figured out that Kentucky is a two-man team offensively (15 each for Meeks and Patterson). That’s three losses in a row for the Cats, two of which were at home. MSU hit fourteen threes in this one.
UNC 108, Maryland 91. UNC torched the Maryland defense for 60 first-half points and sixteen threes (Ellington had seven alone) in this one – maybe Bob Knight is holding out for Gary Williams’ job, because this Maryland team is just… bad.
Kansas St. 65, Iowa St. 50. Don’t look now, but K-State is actually starting to come on a little bit lately with four straight wins in the Big 12.
Northern Iowa 61, Bradley 58. Another impressive road win for this year’s Drake in the MVC. UNI owns a three-game lead and only has one tough road game remaining (@ Illinois St.).
Florida 97, South Carolina 93. SC’s Devan Downey nearly pulled off the win by himself (33 pts on 7-9 threes), but Florida managed to put all five starters in double figures in a game that featured little to no defense (but was entertaining).
In light of the weak set of games this week, we’re bringing you a midweek (Tuesday-Thursday) Set Your Tivos before the weekend edition (Friday night’s games are awful so go out and do something that night).
Tuesday (01.20.09) - Ohio State at #24 Illinois, 7 PM on ESPN and ESPN360.com: Illinois has been one of the most surprising teams in the first half of the college basketball season. Bruce Weber’s team came into the season without a single vote in either major poll and now they sit in the top 25. Although they are only 3-2 in the Big Ten this year, the Fighting Illini have shown everyone that they will contend for the conference title this year with their performance in the early season. All three of their losses this year have been against respectable competition: Clemson (by 2 points), at Michigan (avenged last week), and at Michigan State (by 6). On the other hand, Ohio State has been disappointing since the loss of David Lighty and has went 6-3 since his injury after starting 7-0 including a win over Notre Dame.
Illinois’s strength this year has been their balanced scoring attack with 4 players averaging between 11.3 and 11.8 PPG. They are led by Dmeteri McCamey (11.8 PPG and 4.9 APG) at the point and Mike Davis (11.3 PPG and 7.3 RPG) on the inside. They are a potential Sweet 16 team if Kentucky transfer Alex Legion can become more consistent and play like he did against Michigan State (15 points on 6/13 FG).
The key to this game will be Weber’s ability to limit Evan Turner, who is averaging 15.9 PPG and 7.0 RPG this season. While Thad Matta has two other players (Jon Diebler and William Buford) who average double figures along with the highly touted B.J. Mullens, Turner is the most consistent scorer that Matta has. If Weber can get Davis to slow down Turner, Illinois should be able to pull this one out.
Wednesday (01.21.09) - #21 Villanova at #3 UConn, 7 PM on ESPN and ESPN360.com: Yet another ridiculous Big East battle. Even though I am fairly certain that UConn and Pittsburgh are the best teams in the conference (unless Louisville keeps playing at this level), I have a feeling that the regular season title will be determined by which team wins its other conference games. Quite frankly (sorry Stephen A.), Villanova shouldn’t beat UConn in Storrs if the Huskies play up to their potential.
Calhoun’s talented, but enigmatic backcourt of A.J. Price, Jerome Dyson, and Kemba Walker will have to contend with Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher, and Corey Stokes. The match-up is pretty close, but I’d give the edge to the Huskies here unless Reynolds goes off. On the inside, the Huskies also have the advantage, but will need to contain Dante Cunningham, who comes in averaging 17.4 PPG and 7.4 RPG. If they can prevent him from having a monster game, UConn will have a decided edge on the inside. One of Jim Calhoun’s on-going challenges will be getting Stanley Robinson to play consistently after his unusual sabatical. If Calhoun can get consistent play out of Robinson to go along with the surprisingly consistent Hasheem Thabeet (except for the Gonzaga game) and the explosive slasher Jeff Adrien, he might just find himself in Detroit in April.
- #9 Clemson at #6 UNC, 9 PM on ESPN and ESPN360.com: Will Clemson ever win a game at Chapel Hill? The Tigers’ losing streak in Chapel Hill currently stands at a NCAA record 53 games dating back to their first visit there on January 15, 1926. After Saturday’s loss to current #1 Wake Forest, Clemson will be looking to rebound and avoid their annual ACC slide. Unfortunately for Clemson, UNC is probably stronger than them at every position and has the previously mentioned home court edge.
Oliver Purnell will also need solid play out of his 9-deep rotation (all averaging over 13.2 MPG), which is led by Trevor Booker and K.C. Rivers. Booker will likely be matched up against reigning POY Tyler Hansbrough. It will be a tough match-up for Booker and even matching Hansbrough will likely mean a 54th consecutive loss for Tigers at Chapel Hill. Clemson’s best hope is to use their depth and pressure defense to rattle Ty Lawson, who has been playing well this year except for the Tar Heels two losses (9 assists and 8 TOs in those games).
Roy Williams will need to focus on keeping his stars out of foul trouble because the Tigers are one of the few teams in the country that can match UNC’s depth although not necessarily with the same quality that the Tar Heels have. Even though this is a conference match-up against a top 10 team UNC should be able to handle the Tigers relatively easily particularly if Wayne Ellington continues his hot shooting from the 2nd half of the Miami game.
Thursday (01.22.09) - West Virginia at No. 14 Georgetown, 7 PMon ESPN and ESPN360.com: After losing consecutive games to UConn and Marquette, the Mountaineers feasted on a break in their schedule with back-to-back wins over Marshall and USF. Unfortunately for Bob Huggins, if West Virginia wants to make the NCAA tournament they will have to start stealing a few wins against the upper tier teams in the conference. On the other sideline, John Thompson III will need to focus on his team’s energy level after a hard-fought win against Syracuse and a tough loss at Duke on Saturday.
This game will likely come down to whether Huggins can find somebody inside to battle Greg Monroe and DaJuan Summers. The Mountaineers match-up well on the outside with Alex Ruoff and Darryl Bryant going up against Austin Freeman and Chris Wright, but Da’Sean Butler will have his hands full against Monroe and Summers assuming Monroe can stay out of foul trouble and the “fans behind the bench” keep quiet. I expect the Hoyas to pull away in this one midway through the second half after struggling to find their focus in the first half.
- #18 Purdue at #20 Minnesota, 7 PM on ESPN2 and ESPN360.com: This one looks like it will be a battle of teams fighting for a #2 seed in the Big Ten tournament (the Spartans look like a strong #1 in the conference). The Boilermakers have rebounded well from an 0-2 start in the Big Ten and have won 3 straight. Matt Painter’s club relies on its own Big Three (sorry Boston fans) of E’Twaun Moore, Robbie Hummel, and JaJuan Johnson. If Hummel is back to 100%, they are one of the better trios in the Big Ten. Purdue’s problem is the big drop-off after that as their 4th leading scorer averages 8.0 PPG (respectable) on 34.1% FG (not so respectable).
Tubby Smith will be looking for his club to bounce back after a bad loss at Northwestern on Sunday. Lawrence Westbrook is the unquestioned star of this team, but we’re more curious about Ralph Sampson III (yes, that’s his son). I’m expecting this one to be a hard-fought game, but I think Purdue will be able to pull this one out against the Gophers, who I believe may be getting too much credit by the media for their win against the suddenly resurgent Louisville Cardinals earlier in the year.
I’ll be honest with you. This doesn’t even come close to Super Saturday from a couple weekends ago, but it’s certainly better than watching all the specials about how your retirement account fell apart this year or some mediocre college football teams play in a meaningless bowl games that nobody has ever heard of. It certainly should be enough to distract Big Ten fans away from their teams getting blown out in the bowl games. In any event it will get the rest of you ready for Dick Clark at midnight. . .
Credit: http://www.museum.tv/
Noon ET
- #15 Michigan State at #21 Minnesota on the Big Ten Network: Both teams are riding high after impressive victories on Super Saturday. The Spartans (9-2) have rebounded from a slow start including a blowout loss to UNC (doesn’t seem that bad any more. . .ok losing by 35 in a virtual home game is really bad) to reel off 5 straight wins including a win against Texas on the 20th. Meanwhile, Minnesota (12-0) has been playing consistently good basketball–quality wins over Virginia and an overrated Louisville team–all year despite coming into the season with modest expectations from the media. While the Spartans are more of a known quantity with a number of marquee players, the Gophers are more of an unknown as their soft early season schedule (only Louisville was a RPI top 100) is the reason they are 12-0 yet only ranked #21 in the country. The key to this game will likely be Spartan sophomore PG Kalin Lucas who comes into the game boasting a better than 6.5:1 assist to turnover ratio. If he continues to play at that level, Tubby Smith will have a tough time matching Tom Izzo and the Spartans.
2 PM ET
- #3 Pittsburgh at Rutgers on ESPN Full Court and ESPN360.com: The Panthers are heavy favorites in this game, but we’ll be more interested in how the Scarlet Knights are performing in the middle of the toughest 3 game stretch in college basketball history (#1 UNC then #3 Pitt then current #2 UConn in the same week). Jamie Dixon should have his guys ready for this game after UConn’s loss to Georgetown a couple night earlier, but you never know with college kids particularly ones who probably went home for the holidays and spent time around people who praised them even more than what they normally hear at school. This is definitely an “upset alert” game, but we think the UConn loss should be enough to keep Levance Fields and the Panthers on their toes.
- Wisconsin at #24 Michigan on ESPN2 and ESPN360.com: At first glance this would appear to be a mismatch with the Badgers being unranked and the Wolverines receiving a lot of attention from the media this year, but this game should be very close. Most of you know about the Wolverines (10-2) with losses to Duke (avenged) and Maryland, but the Badgers (9-3) come in with a pretty strong resume too–a blowout loss against UConn along with 2 close losses to Marquette and Texas (by a combined 8 points). Despite their strong starts, both teams still have work to do if they want to guarantee themselves a ticket to the NCAA tournament. As usual the Badgers come in without a true superstar, but have a very balanced attack with 5 players averaging between 7.8 and 12.6 PPG. The Wolverines rely on their stars–Manny Harris (19.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 5.1 APG) and DeShawn Sims (17.2 PPG and 9.2 RPG). I figure the Wolverine fans (and Manny Harris) should be enough to put their team over the top in the Big Ten opener.
4 PM ET
- Iowa at #23 Ohio State on the Big Ten Network: Unfortunately we don’t think we will be seeing Mr. Trillion (Mark Titus) make an on-court appearance because this also figures to be a close game. The Hawkeyes (10-3) haven’t been world-beaters, but they should put up a pretty good fight if Anthony Tucker can rebound from his recent suspension and play up to his early-season form. The Buckeyes looked absolutely awful in their last game a 76-48 loss to West Virginia, which dropped them 10 spots in the polls. If the Buckeyes expect to rebound and contend for a Big Ten title, which they have the potential to do, they will need freshman B.J. Mullens to start playing like the big-time recruit he was out of high school. At the very least, Thad Matta needs Mullens to start playing like the 7-footer that he reportedly is. Seriously, 4.0 RPG in 17.7 minutes per game against mediocre competition isn’t going to cut it for someone who has been hyped as a potential lottery pick. If Mullens can raise his game, he and Evan Turner should be enough to make them contenders for the Big Ten title.
6 PM ET
- UNLV at #18 Louisville on ESPN2 and ESPN360.com: I would use an “upset alert” on this one, but with the way Rick Pitino’s boys have been playing this year they haven’t played well enough for me to consider another loss an upset. Louisville has the talent to blow out UNLV, but to date they haven’t shown the ability to translate that talent into performance this season. UNLV certainly hasn’t been playing great this year, but their pressing defense has started to pay dividends recently with a big win over Arizona. Normally a team as talented as Louisville shouldn’t have trouble with a trapping defense of the level of UNLV’s (saw it on Christmas Eve on a replay of the Southern Utah game on Mountain TV–don’t ask), but it might just be enough pressure to rattle a team that appears to be as mentally weak as Louisville. My prediction: Let’s just say I have a strong suspicion that Rick will be giving another long speech after this one.
8 PM ET
- #17 Gonzaga at Utah on CBS College Sports: As much as I would like to make this a game about 2 teams (sorry Utah), this game is really all about Gonzaga. The Bulldogs, who were ranked 4th in the nation a couple weeks ago, have lost 3 of 4. We’re willing to let the loss to UConn go (we called it the “Game of the Year (to date)” at the time, but neither team has done much lately to help with that claim), but losses to Arizona and Portland State have basically knocked Gonzaga out of contention for a #1 seed this year. However, Mark Few still has a chance at a #2 seed and spot in the West Region if Jeremy Pargo, Matt Bouldin, and company can get back in gear.
10 PM ET
-#1 UNC at Nevada on ESPN2. This is a true road test for the Heels, but it looked better on paper a month ago than it probably will be tonight. The Wolfpack, with Luke Babbit, Armon Johnson and Brandon Fields, appeared to be ready to compete for another WAC championship and an NCAA bid coming into the season, but they have been nothing short of a disappointment so far, losing to pretty much every good team they’ve played. Still, there is talent here, and if UNC is looking ahead to hanging out in the seedy casinos afterwards, Nevada could use their homecourt advantage to make a game of this one. It’s worth keeping an eye on as you lift your glass to toast the new year in the east.
Josh & Mike at Big Ten Geeks are the RTC correspondents for the Big Ten Conference.
Michigan State (29-6, 16-2)
Purdue (27-7, 15-3)
Wisconsin (24-8, 13-5)
Ohio State (20-12, 10-8)
Illinois (18-13, 9-9)
Minnesota (21-10, 9-9)
Michigan (16-14, 8-10)
Penn State (18-12, 7-11)
Northwestern (13-17, 6-12)
Iowa (12-18, 4-14)
Indiana (8-20, 2-16)
WYN2K. This is not your father’s Big Ten, or rather, it’s not your older brother’s Big Ten. Gone are dominating big men of the past, such as Greg Oden, DJ White, Kosta Koufos, and James Augustine. They’ve been replaced by guards such as Manny Harris, Kalin Lucas, E’Twaun Moore and Demetri McCamey. A solid big man (such as the perennially-underrated Goran Suton and incoming freshman B.J. Mullens) is a luxury that most Big Ten teams will not enjoy. You’ll see a lot of lineups featuring one player at 6′7 or taller. Some might hope this will spur the Big Ten into faster play, but, as Northwestern proved last season, guard-oriented teams can be every bit as slow as tall teams.
Predicted Champion.Michigan St. (NCAA #2). There are two things everyone can agree on for season predictions: Michigan State and Purdue promise to be the two toughest teams, and Indiana promises to finish in the basement. Beyond that, there’s a lot of uncertainty here. We like the Spartans to take the title. Part of that is talent (the roster features ten top 100 RSCI players), and part of that is schedule (MSU gets one game against the formidable Wisconsin, while Purdue has only one game against lowly Indiana). Also, in a guard-heavy conference, picking the team with the best frontline (Suton, Diaper Dandy Delvon Roe, and conference Player of the Year candidate Raymar Morgan – see below) isn’t a bad strategy. Sort of a “land of the blind” kind of thing. In our estimation, the Boilermakers feature the best starting five, but they have depth issues. Still though, it would not be a shock if Purdue came out on top.
NCAA/NIT Teams. We think this is a 4-bid league, but that fourth bid is hardly a shoe-in. Yes, the Big Ten is down (again), but we see a lot more parity in the middle of the conference. Fourth place through seventh is really up for grabs, and we think that makes for a lot of NIT teams. In fact, the Big Ten could send more teams to the NIT than to the NCAA tourney. We think the top 3 teams (MSU, Purdue(NCAA #4), and Wisconsin(NCAA #8)) are near-locks for the NCAA Tourney, the next three (Ohio St.(NCAA #11), Illinois, and Minnesota) promise to be bubbilicious, and the next three (Michigan, PSU, and Northwestern) figure to be in the NIT hunt.
Others.Iowa and Indiana almost certainly aren’t going anywhere, at least this season. Both teams are in the rebuilding mode, with Todd Lickliter still working to get “his players” into his system (does he really have a system though?). Indiana is sort of like how we look after a three-day weekend in Vegas – humbled, confused, full of regrets, and ready to move on. Coach Tom Crean already has several impressive recruits lined up for the next season – so get your licks in now, Big Ten, because IU will be back sooner rather than later.
Important Games. The biggest non-conference game on the schedule, without question, is on December 3rd, when UNC faces Michigan St. at Ford Field, site of this year’s Final Four. It might be the first of two meetings between those teams at that venue. We’re also interested to see the Davidson-Purdue matchup on December 20th (that Steph Curry is fun to watch), and the December 2nd Duke-Purdue contest that might be the best game between teams with so much talent concentrated on the perimeter. In conference, the two meetings between Purdue and MSU are the must-see events that likely will determine the conference champ.
Neat-o Stats.
Since 1980, no conference has had more NCAA Tournament appearances than the Big Ten (144).
In each of the past 4 seasons, Indiana has a better winning percentage as the underdog than as the favorite.
Since 1998, the Big Ten is the 3rd best conference by RPI.
The Big Ten is 30-56 in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge, and has never actually “won” the event in nine tries. The only team not playing in the challenge this season is NC State – which finished dead last in the ACC last season.
65 Team Era. The Big 10 during this era has earned more NCAA bids than any other conference (133), and its record is fourth-best of the period (194-130, .599), including 18 #1 seeds (2d), 47 Sweet Sixteens (4th), 16 Final Fours (2d), and 3 titles (4th). Even in the 2000s, when there’s been a perception that the league has been ‘down’ relative to the 80s and 90s, the Big Ten has put six teams into the F4, including two in 2005. We’ve been guilty of ragging the B10 for its ‘boring’ style of basketball, but we can’t argue with its results – and there’s a strong likelihood of seeing another Big Ten team in the F4 this year.
Final Thought. The Big Ten will not be the best conference in college basketball, but it should be home to some of the best guards in the country. The conference received a big infusion of point guards last season, and the best of the bunch, Kalin Lucas, is one of the ten best PGs in the country. And while super sophomore Manny Harris gets a lot of deserved praise (a lot), we think an even better sophomore shooting guard plays in West Lafayette. And he might not even be the best sophomore on his team. We also like last-second-shot-specialistBlake Hoffarber’s chances to become a household name. Also, the increased parity should make for a lot of close games. Expect to see very few blowout wins. Except against Indiana (sorry, Hoosiers).
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Posted by rtmsf
WYN2K. This is not your father’s Big Ten, or rather, it’s not your older brother’s Big Ten. Gone are dominating big men of the past, such as Greg Oden, DJ White, Kosta Koufos, and James Augustine. They’ve been replaced by guards such as Manny Harris, Kalin Lucas, E’Twaun Moore and Demetri McCamey. A solid big man (such as the perennially-underrated Goran Suton and incoming freshman B.J. Mullens) is a luxury that most Big Ten teams will not enjoy. You’ll see a lot of lineups featuring one player at 6′7 or taller. Some might hope this will spur the Big Ten into faster play, but, as Northwestern proved last season, guard-oriented teams can be every bit as slow as tall teams.