Saturday, March 20 (all CBS)
1:05pm - Villanova vs. St. Mary's
3:20pm - Butler vs. Murray St
3:35pm - Tennessee vs. Ohio
5:40pm - Kansas vs. Northern Iowa
5:45pm - Baylor vs. Old Dominion
5:50pm - New Mexico vs. Washington
8:10pm - Kansas St vs. BYU
8:15pm - Kentucky vs. Wake Forest
In a school assembly/press conference televised by ESPN-U, #1-ranked Harrison Barnes chose Chapel Hill as his home for at least the next year, and in doing so launched UNC’s recruiting class and national championship prospects for next year into highly rarified air. In addition to Barnes, the Tar Heels have secured commitments from 13th-ranked Reggie Bullock (a 6′6 shooting guard) and 19th-ranked Kendall Marshall (a 6′4 point guard). Not only does this secure top-notch players at three different spots on the floor for Roy Williams, it also stacks players behind the highly-touted fellows he’s already got in uniform.
As opposed to picking up and putting on a hat or lowering a banner, Barnes announced his decision by moving to a podium and “Skype-ing” his coach of choice. The crowd erupted when he said, “Hello, Coach Roy Williams?” and Williams — accompanied by the rest of the Tar Heel squad — appeared live on the large screen set up next to Barnes. Props to Barnes for his original approach in announcing his school; it looks like a little competition is developing here, in its own right. It will be interesting to see what future recruits come up with when they’re announcing their decisions on live television. In a few years, kids will stand at a podium and say, “I’ve been working with some guys at MIT, and I will now teleport myself to the school that I’ve chosen…”
Kentucky may have taken last year’s recruiting title, and Ohio State may have had the early lead this year — but (to paraphrase from Good Will Hunting) the Tar Heels have responded, and they have responded with vigor. Duke, Kentucky, Kansas…it’s your move.
The nation’s presumptive #1 player in the Class of 2010, Harrison Barnes, will make his college choice official this afternoon at 4pm ET on ESPNU. Nervous but hopeful coaches and fans from his top choices of Iowa State, UNC, Duke, UCLA, Oklahoma and Kansas will all be tuning in at the end of the work day to hear whether it will be their favorite school that makes a huge leap in Final Four potential and a national title chances in 2010-11. According to Seth Davis, nobody but nobody knows what Barnes is going to do this afternoon, so let’s briefly break down each of his choices (in no particular order) to see what makes the most sense for the 6′7 superstar from Ames, Iowa.
Iowa State – Never count out the hometown school. ISU is a stone’s throw from Ames High School, and Barnes is undoubtedly familiar with the campus, players and coaches to a degree much more than the others. In fact, his mother works there. Stud inside force Craig Brackins is likely to be in the NBA in 2010-11, but Barnes could potentially be seen as a savior in much the same way Michael Beasley was for the Kansas State program in 2007-08. Similarly, his presence at ISU, even for one season, could impact the recruiting fortunes of the Cyclones for the next five years.
UNC – Roy Williams never lacks for talent, but he could use an elite scoring wing next season to supplement his formidable size inside. The 6′10 freshman John Henson is currently playing that role, so there could be a little bit of an overlap if Henson develops into a very nice player this year and sticks around in 2010-11. Still, Roy has often had multiple Burger Boys at each position, so it wouldn’t shock us if Barnes signs with UNC today and if you’re listening to people around Barnes, MJ (who else?) is his idol.
Duke – Necessity, meet invention. If Duke lands Barnes this afternoon, the Devils will immediately shoot to the top of the 2010-11 ratings. We’ve covered this before, but assuming that Kyle Singler sticks around for his senior year, there’s no other team in America who will have the firepower that a lineup of Kyrie Irving, Seth Curry, Harrison Barnes, Kyle Singler and Mason (or Miles) Plumlee could bring to bear. That’s a NASTY lineup, and Barnes is tailor-made for Duke’s system of slashing and shooting. If Barnes is ok with leaving his home state (and we think he is), this is our projection as to where he lands.
UCLA – Ultimately, this choice depends on how much the winters of Ames suck compared to those in Westwood (and we’re pretty sure they do). If Barnes had an unbelievable visit at UCLA, this is a possible choice, but we wouldn’t call it probable. Plus, some of the same issues that UNC has about obvious playing time exist, with the young forward corps of Drew Gordon, Tyler Honeycutt and Malcolm Lee likely to return in 2010-11.
Oklahoma - Jeff Capel has been a surpisingly good recruiter thus far as the head coach at Oklahoma, and the mere fact that Barnes is listing OU as a finalist belies that point. With Blake Griffin and Willie Warren, Capel will have had consecutive all-americans who both stayed in school for at least two seasons. And with Tony Crocker entering his senior season, the minutes will be plentiful on the wing should Barnes alight to Norman. Still, we just don’t see it happening. Other than the hometown school, one of these five out-of-state schools isn’t like the others, so it would be a tremendous coup if Capel pulls this one off.
Kansas – Bill Self is clearly hoping that if he loses star freshman wing Xavier Henry after one season, he’ll have Barnes waiting in the wings to replace him in 2010. And it makes sense. Regardless of what happens this year, KU will definitely lose team leader Sherron Collins and probably lose Cole Aldrich inside. The Henry brothers are also possibilities. Just to be clear, Kansas doesn’t re-build, but it would be unreasonable to expect next season to be as rife with possibility as the current one, even with Barnes on board. The minutes will be there if Henry leaves, but Barnes can’t possibly know that now.
Here’s our completely speculative projection of Barnes’ list a mere 2.5 hours before he unveils his top choice.
Duke - everything makes sense for Barnes there – title contention, PT, academics.
Iowa State – the hometown school is always in play.
UNC - Roy is a master salesman, but how does he explain the Henson situation?
Kansas - Bill Self could be telling him that Henry is likely to leave, therefore the wing is all Barnes all the time.
UCLA - the weather won’t supplant the other issues (minutes, perceived style of play).
Oklahoma – Capel should be happy to have just gotten onto his list.
Wednesday, November 11th was the first day of basketball’s early signing period for high school seniors, and several noteworthy prospects signed on the dotted line throughout the day. A recap (all rankings from the ESPN 100):
The biggest story came out of Columbus, Ohio. Thad Matta is flexing right now, as he brought in four players in the top 100, including two players in most recruiting analysts’ top 10-12; Jared Sullinger, an almost unanimous #2 in this year’s whole senior class (pictured above), and #12 DeShaun Thomas, a smooth 6′7 three-position threat. Also signing with the Buckeyes were top-60 players Jordan Sibert and Aaron Craft, so you can see why OSU boasts the best recruiting class for 2010 to this point.
Perry Jones, considered the third-ranked prospect in the current senior class, signed with Baylor today, thus continuing Scott Drew’s highly commendable rebuilding of that program. Jones verbally committed back in 2007 but today’s signing made it official. The 6′10 Jones has the skill set to play the 3, 4, or 5 at the collegiate level.
Other signing notes: Marquette inked a couple of top-100 recruits in the excellently-named 6′3 shooting guard Vander Blue and 6′6 wing Jamail Jones. A couple of former NBA stars saw their sons sign letters; Shawn Kemp, Jr. (6′9, 215) signed with Auburn, while Tim Hardaway, Jr. (6′5, 185) pledged his support to Michigan.
Two of the biggest names in the class of 2010 also revealed their plans to announce soon. Harrison Barnes (dunking above) is touted as possibly the best player in the class, and says that he’ll announce this Friday at 4 P.M. ET. The leaders for his services are said to be Duke, North Carolina, Kansas, and Oklahoma. Top ten recruit Tobias Harris, according to his father, will not sign a letter of intent this week, but will announce his college choice next week; Maryland, Louisville, Georgia Tech, and West Virginia are listed as the top possibilities for the 6′8 combo-forward.
Andy Katz is reporting this afternoon that the Renardo Sidney saga could — emphasis, ours — be reaching its natural conclusion. After meetings held at the Sidney family attorney’s office in Montgomery, Alabama, this morning, Donald Jackson stated that the Sidneys revealed bank statements to the NCAA and Mississippi State representatives, which was one of the key pieces of evidence that investigators had requested. From the report by Katz:
The meeting with MSU compliance director Bracky Brett, MSU-hired attorney Michael Glazier and Alex Hammond from the Eligibility Center lasted for four hours Friday morning in Sidney attorney Donald Jackson’s Montgomery, Ala., office. “We showed them bank deposits and bank statements for the two years the family was living in Los Angeles,” Jackson told ESPN.com.
Obviously, we have no idea whether these bank statements completely answer the questions that the NCAA has regarding Sidney’s eligibility — namely, whether the Sidneys could prove that their rentals of million-dollar properties in the Los Angeles area over three years was justifiable on the income of a Reebok representative (Renardo, Sr.) and a personal assistant (his wife). But it certainly is a strong step in the right direction for the Sidneys. One would have to make an assumption that the Sidneys wouldn’t show the NCAA these bank records unless there was cause to believe that they had the (legal) income stream to support it. Alternatively, if the bank statements do not show what the Sidneys hope (or purport) to show, then we’re not sure that Sidney will have another serious argument to become eligible this season. This may be their last stand.
Mississippi State’s first regular season game is two weeks from today on Nov. 13 against Rider, so time is running short. The NCAA said that it will take a look at the evidence presented to them early next week and will make a ruling soon thereafter.
In case any of you missed the news, Kyrie Irving made it official today that he would be committing to play at Duke next season. This doesn’t really come as a surprise as it was reported that he would do so two days ago. However, the following day Irving denied those reports. This last-minute back-and-forth raises the interesting question: What was the point of Irving denying the initial report? Was Irving really uncertain about where he would be going just hours before he went on ESPNU to make his announcement?
While that is possible, it seems very unlikely. Instead Irving’s actions reek of a desire to maintain suspense for his official announcement on “national TV” (quotation marks since I don’t get ESPNU and I spend almost $70/month on cable). While we would prefer not to criticize a teenager for something as benign as wanting to keep more people paying attention to them (as long as it doesn’t involve a weather balloon), it speaks to the larger issue of the ridiculousness of the recruiting world that college sports operate in today. Why would Kyrie Irving, a kid who has probably been the most popular kid at his school since he was dominating his classmates on the court in elementary school, feel the need to essentially lie about the fact that he had decided he was going to Duke?
Apparently this is what Kyrie really wanted
Now I may be getting into semantics here with his Twitter posts, but the only legitimate reason I can see for denying the initial reports in the manner that he did was if he actually was still deciding between schools. Instead it is more likely that Irving just wanted his moment in the spotlight (as if he won’t be getting enough opportunities to be on real national television with Duke and possibly a NBA team over the next few years), which is fine because the editors of this site were at one time the same age as Irving. However, it is a little disappointing for fans of college basketball that Irving, who has been described as having a “good head on his shoulders” by multiple sources, would resort to something like this.
Adam Zagoria of Zagsblog is reporting tonight that Kyrie Irving, the #9 rated player in the class of 2010 and considered a player with huge upside in the mold of Chris Paul or Deron Williams, has committed to Duke. The 6′2, 175-lb scoring point guard from Elizabeth (NJ) St. Patrick just returned from a recent weekend at Kentucky for its Big Blue Madness event, but he has reportedly been leaning toward Duke for some time.
Irving tonight denied this report, as he stated below on Twitter:
We know Zagoria doesn’t go around making things up, though, and he cited three separate confirmations from assistant coaches at rival schools who claim that Irving’s recruitment is over because Duke has locked him up. We’ll go with Zagoria on this one, as it’s more fun to speculate anyway, but we’ve been saying for a while that if Duke has plans on becoming Duke again, players like Irving and forward Harrison Barnes are must-gets.
Since Luol Deng arrived on campus as the #2 player (Rivals.com) in the class of 2003, the top ten players that Duke has signed are Kyle Singler (#5 in 2007), Josh McRoberts (#2 in 2005) and Shaun Livingston (#2 in 2004, but went NBA), while GregPaulus (#11 in 2005) and Gerald Henderson (#11 in 2006) were near-misses. Of that group, none have had the game-changing NBA-quality ability that earlier-era Dookies such as Grant Hill, Elton Brand, Shane Battier and Jason Williams shared, and not coincidentally, Duke hasn’t sniffed the Final Four since Deng left campus.
Assuming Irving has already committed to Coach K and he manages to lure Barnes to Durham as well (Barnes is expected there this weekend), the 2010-11 Blue Devils could be shaping up as a nasty team, with the following starting lineup:
PG – Kyrie Irving, Fr.
SG – Seth Curry, So.
SF – Kyle Singler, Sr.
PF – Harrison Barnes, Fr.
C – Ryan Kelly, So./Mason or Miles Plumlee, So./Jr.
The weak spot is at the center position, but we’re assuming one of the three-headed monster of Kelly/Plumlee/Plumlee will have stepped up by then. Still, that’s a very powerful projected lineup, and one that with tonight’s news should be sending shivers up and down the Atlantic seaboard for fear that Duke is one step closer to becoming a powerhouse again.
Like the first trickles of a flash flood, the verbal barrage about our beloved sport really started picking up this week. There’s a lot more previewing, interviewing, writing, talking and salivating going on around the college hoops blogosphere. Let’s take a look at some of the items that are catching our interest…
Dissecting Duke’s Recruiting. Gary Parrish wrote an interesting article last week about Duke’s recruiting over the past five seasons and we had to comment on it because it fairly accurately depicts what the substantive problem with Duke has been in the postseason (i.e., away from CIS). We’re on record as saying that Duke hasn’t had a true game-changing stud since Luol Deng graced the gothic campus with his presence for one season in 2003-04. This is not to say that Duke has been without very good players during that time. Shelden Williams, JJ Redick and Gerald Henderson all come to mind as great collegians. But none of those players, and certainly none of the laundry list that Parrish mentions as some of K’s other ’top’ recruits (McBob, Singler, etc.), are the kinds of elite NBA-level talent that gets teams through the regionals and into the Final Four. There are of course notable exceptions (George Mason in 2006 is the most obvious), but this is Duke, and Duke is always taking a team’s best shot. They’re going to be very well coached, but Coach K and his staff know that well-coached moderate talent will lose out to elite talent more often than not. This is why when Parrish says that Duke needs to secure commitments from Harrison Barnes and Kyrie Irving in order to compete with UNC, Kansas and now Kentucky on the national stage again, he’s right. The Jon Scheyers of the world are great to have on your team, and will win you a lot of games over four years; but they’re not the players who can carry a team through rough spots en route to the Final Four. If you don’t believe us, check out who was the MOP of the 2004 Atlanta Regional, leading the team in scoring in both regional games and literally saving the team on more than one occasion with clutch buckets (hint: it wasn’t the more celebrated upperclassmen). Box scores here and here. If Duke is serious about getting back to the big stage again before Coach K retires, he needs players like Barnes and Irving to get it done. Fundamentally, Duke fans probably realize this, which is why each of these visits makes for tense moments in Durham.
Midnight Madness. So we’re only eight days away from the start of basketball practice, and thankfully the NCAA closed the loophole that meant we were having these things all month of October, like last year. But ESPNU will be back with coverage from 9pm to 1am EDT next Friday, with a simulcast from 8:30-9pm EST on ESPN. There will be coverage from nine schools this year, including Kansas’ Late Night in the Phog, Kentucky’s Big Blue Madness, UNC’s Late Night With Roy, and several others (Michigan St., Duke, Washington, Georgetown, UConn and North Dakota St.). RTC will hopefully provide live coverage in some fashion, but we’re still working out what that will be. Make sure to check back early next week for more details.
Pastner has been able to quickly rejuvinate a Memphis program suffering from major personnel losses- namely Tyreke Evans, Antonio Anderson, Robert Dozier and Shawn Taggart- by having Duke point guard Elliot Williams fall into his lap this summer and also securing the commitment of Will Barton, a 6′6 shooting guard ranked by Scout.com as the #1 overall player at his position. Williams, Barton and Jackson in the fray means three McDonalds All-American guards in the backcourt for Pastner in 2010-11.
As a college basketball fan, color me pleased that Memphis seems to be on the upswing yet again. Rather than be left in the dust by Calipari, a young, vibrant coach like Pastner should be able to re-invent the image of a scarred program. While his coaching skills have yet to be evaluated, Pastner appears to be heading on the right track towards another dominant decade-long run in Conference USA by landing such elite recruits against more established coaching mainstays. Their loyal and passionate fan base deserves it.
Yes, we know that our headline brought you here expecting to see prurient details of Rick Pitino’s latest escapades on shag carpet, but we (and presumably, he) are trying to get back to basketball. According to Zagsblog today, Louisville has hired Indianapolis Pike head coach Shabaka Lands as its new “Special Assistant to the Coach.” [insert special assistant to Pitino joke here] Why is this important? Well, much in the same way that Michael Beasley followed AAU coach Dalonte Hill to K-State, Marquis Teague, the #1 PG in the class of 2011, goes to Pike and Louisville is rather high on his list. This isn’t an illegal maneuver (although it should be), but it’s awfully coincidental. As TBL wrote today, with John Calipari at UK gaining inroads with any and every recruit he wants, Pitino can’t afford another whiff on a major recruit like Teague. Expect to see Marquis heading to the River City two years from now (unless more of Pitino’s abandoned fetuses start washing up on the shores of the Ohio River).
One step towards Renardo Sidney joining Mississippi State in their quest for an SEC title was completed today with the McDonald’s All-American receiving academic clearance to enroll at the university and begin classes on the first day, Sidney’s attorney told ESPN.com’s Andy Katz earlier today.
One giant hurdle still remains until Mississippi State coach Rick Stansbury can pencil in Sidney for their November 13 opener. The NCAA is still investigating the circumstances surrounding the Sidney family paying for two million dollar homes in the Los Angeles area during Sidney’s transfer to a high school there. The investigation caused both UCLA and USC to back off in their recruitment of Sidney for fear of eligibilty issues. Until the NCAA feels it has compiled strong enough reason to believe Sidney’s family paid for the homes legally, Sidney will not be cleared to play basketball.
Renardo Sidney/ESPN
Reports say Sidney and his family are currently on the move to Starkville, MS. If Stansbury does get Sidney eligible at some point this season, he’ll join guards Ravern Johnson, Barry Stewart and shot-blocking sensation Jarvis Varnado in the middle for a Bulldog team that will contend for the Top 25.
My best guess during this entire process remains that Sidney will eventually suit up for Mississippi State at some point during the 2009-10 campaign. The NCAA elongates these investigations tremendously, so pinning for Sidney to play for Stansbury and the Bulldogs during their season opener could be wishful thinking. To avoid an endless lawsuit from Jackson and the Sidney family, however, expect the NCAA to slap Sidney on the wrist with around a 9-10 game suspension and move on while he plays in the bulk of Mississippi State’s schedule.
Florida International sent shockwaves through the recruiting world today when the #16 ranked player in the Class of 2010, Dominique Ferguson, announced that he will attend Isiah Thomas’ fledgling program over the likes of Duke, Florida, Kentucky, Indiana and UCLA. The Thomas name and charisma still carries weight among HS kids because this is the second major recruit that Isiah has landed in his first summer of recruiting – highly-rated center Chris Coleman is committed to the school for 2011 as well. At this rate, our post in 2007 will prove more prescient that we could have ever imagined.
Two years ago former Utah coach Rick Majerus came out of retirement to take over the reins at St. Louis University. We wrote at the time of his hiring that one of the key attributes of his teams throughout his career was that they tend to overachieve. His teams at Utah were locks to win 20+ games and make the NCAA Tournament despite a relative paucity of elite talent (Keith Van Horn excepted). We expected a quick turnaround at SLU, but it’s been a little slower going than expected – the Billikens have posted back-to-back mediocre seasons (16-15 and 18-14) and the only newsworthy event in Majerus’ two years there was from this particular 20-point abomination. So he needs some recruits, right? His first class was strong with several three-star players (including top 150 player Brett Thompson), but his second class fell off considerably (only one three-star), so Majerus might be feeling more pressure to sign players by any means necessary.
DiLoreto and Accomplice in Disguise
Gary Parrish today reported that 6′11 prep center Anthony DiLoreto has been offered a scholarship by Majerus and SLU, which wouldn’t otherwise register a blip on the national radar except for the fact that DiLoreto is facing two felonies for taking part in a bank robbery last year in Wisconsin. Yeah, a bank robbery – as in, he drove the getaway car and provided the sawed-off shotgun that his 16-year old associate used to enter the Bremer Bank and steal the money. Not only that, but DiLoreto broke longstanding ‘villain code’ by leaving his companion behind when the po-po rolled up for a nearby unrelated accident. Showing Darwin-Award brilliance, DiLoreto then drove home and waited there until he was arrested several hours later. He had originally committed to Cal Poly, but the school dropped his recruitment in light of these allegations. (ed. note: this story would be much better if DiLoreto was from New Jersey)
Not Majerus and St. Louis, though. And according to Parrish, not several other coaches either (from the Big 10, Big 12, Pac-10, A10, WAC, MWC and WCC), all of whom now consider DiLoreto a mid- to high-major prospect. DiLoreto hasn’t yet overcome his legal problems, but he’s been working toward a plea bargain settlement that would presumably allow him to play ball again soon. With an opportunity to grab an improving seven-footer, coaches are lining up to take a chance on him, proving once again that unless a player is actually in prison, someone will give him a schollie if he can occasionally throw a ball through a hoop.
First it was Brandon Jennings, then heralded class of 2011 recruit Jeremy Tyler, and now the Rivals.com #17 overall player from the class of 2009 – Latavious Williams. Therein completes the list of talented individuals that have opted to play overseas in the last year rather than pursue a playing career in college. While Jennings cannot necessarily be blamed for his decision to play in Italy due to a failure to be cleared academically to play for Arizona this past season, the decisions by Tyler (a high school junior at the time of his decision) and Williams leave us scratching our heads.
Sure, Tyler has the potential to be an impact basketball player. He’s 6′11, loaded with upside and will make plenty of money before he would have even received his diploma. But playing overseas, just as Jennings discovered, is much more difficult than anticipated by a confident 17-year old who has never faced such competition in his life. The odds are that we never hear from Jeremy Tyler again. As for Williams, the Memphis recruit was reportedly 50/50 to be cleared to play this season for new coach Josh Pastner and the Tigers. This is a different situation than Jennings, a player who entered the final year of high school as the top-ranked player in the nation, who struggled mightily in Italy. Williams is certainly talented, but nowhere near as talented as Jennings, yet reportedly Williams had Jennings in mind when he made his decision.
“It was a difficult decision,” Williams said in his press release. “But after consulting with a number of people, and taking my family situation into consideration, playing overseas is the best move for me.” According to Williams’ consultant Trey Godfrey, Williams made his decision with money in mind: “He made the decision when taking into account his family situation,” said Godfrey, “He wants to put himself in a situation where he can help out and he saw this as a good opportunity.” He had been considering the move overseas even during the recruiting process with Memphis and other schools. China, of all places, is one possible destination for Williams.
The impact on Memphis is glaring. Williams was rumored to be a potential starter for the Tigers due to the departure of both Robert Dozier and Shawn Taggart from the frontcourt. Otherwise, Angel Garcia, Pierre Henderson-Niles and Miami JC transfer Will Coleman will need to lead the way inside. The strength of the Tigers should remain in the backcourt with Duke transfer Elliot Williams, three-point threat Doneal Mack, point guard Willie Kemp and the emerging Roburt Sallie and Wesley Witherspoon.
Josh Pastner Better Get Back on the Phones (photo credit: Arizona Star)
As for the impact on Williams, it could be tragic. While he could certainly prove us wrong, it’s hard to see Williams succeeding overseas playing in that type of competition. He’s not a supreme talent like Jennings who can struggle and still maintain his status as a NBA lottery pick due to upside and potential. He could be severely exposed overseas and barely end up a second-round pick in the league, if he’s fortunate. Due to the complicated eligibility process imposed by the NCAA and the allure of bringing in early cash outside of school, look for this troubling trend to continue as long as only one year of college is required prior to the NBA.
We have already laid out our thoughts on the possibility of this occurring earlier, but it’s worth bringing up again because USA Basketball made it official today that Mike Krzyzewski was returning to lead Team USA in the 2012 Olympics in London. For as much hate as he gets as the coach of Duke, we have to say that he has done a great job of rebuilding USA Basketball with Jerry Colangelo although that it can be argued that his best attribute was that he didn’t bench his best player (see George Karl in 2002) or select a squad that was horribly put together/too young and act like an insufferable jerk while coach that team (see Larry Brown in 2004). Perhaps the biggest impact Coach K’s return will have is convincing the team’s stars (LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, and Dwayne Wade) to return for another run at the gold medal. Team USA version 2012 could potentially field a team that is legitimately as dominant as The Dream Team (none of this ridiculous “Redeem Team” junk from this year) as the 2008 team’s core players will be entering their primes with the exception of Kobe. Here’s a quick look at a potential roster for London:
PG = Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Rajon Rondo, and Derrick Rose
SG = Kobe Bryant, Dwayne Wade, and Brandon Roy
SF = LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, and Kevin Durant
PF/C = Dwight Howard, Blake Griffin, Al Jefferson, and Chris Bosh
Obviously that’s more people than could suit up, but they would probably lose at least one guy to age/injuries (candidates: Kobe, Wade, and Jefferson) or might drop one of the potential PGs (likely Rondo or Williams). Griffin is also the other wild-card here since we’re forecasting his success in the NBA, but Team USA’s weakness is inside and it seems like he would be perfect in the international setting with the up-tempo pace that Team USA would likely employ even if Malcolm Gladwell thinks that style of play is a recipe for an upset. In any case, this team would be enormous favorites in London and would highlight a talent–recruiting–that was once considered Coach K’s greatest asset back when he used to simply coach Duke.
Some surprising recruiting news broke this morning and has been confirmed by multiple sources: Josh Selby, an elite class of 2010 point guard recruit from Baltimore, has de-committed from Tennessee. Selby, who first announced the news via his Facebook page, is ranked as the #3 point guard in the class and considered a legitimate five-star recruit who would have solved Bruce Pearl’s ongoing search for a player to run his fast-paced offensive attack.
Selby’s mother to CBS Sports: “We’re just going to get together as a family and figure it out. Right now we don’t even know. We haven’t compiled a list or anything.” She didn’t rule out a return to Rocky Top for her son and cited the main reason for de-committing as being “overwhelmed” during the initial process, leading to a rash decision to commit to Bruce Pearl and the Vols. Industry sources indicate that John Calipari could immediately jump on this juicy situation and lure Selby to Kentucky to take over as starting point guard when John Wall departs for the NBA. Louisville could also be involved (they offered Selby before he committed to UT) while Memphis and Oregon are the sleepers. Selby broke through in a big way at the LeBron James Skills Academy this month, only improving his already leaping stock as a top-10 player in the entire 2010 class. Selby shot down rumors of a possible de-commitment from Tennessee during the camp, but apparently he had been considering such a decision.
This has to be crushing news for Vols headman Bruce Pearl, who is currently coaching Team USA in Israel at the Maccabiah Games. Pearl has garnered some controversy from Vol fans for ditching the all-important July recruiting trail for the games and the de-commitment of Selby will not soothe their worries. While head coaches like Calipari, Ernie Kent, Paul Hewitt or Josh Pastner have been able to converse with Selby during these elite summer recruiting camps, Pearl’s assistants have taken over such duties, leaving one to question whether that was a good decision.
Jeff Goodman reported today that Duke recruit and Class of 2010 shooting guard Andre Dawkins is considering enrolling in Durham one year earlier than expected. Dawkins has completed four years of high school already due to a transfer after his freshman year and is merely one course away from completing all his graduation requirements. However, his father stated to the Raleigh News & Observer that this was not a ‘done deal,’ and no decision will be made until late August, presumably when they learn whether Dawkins will have passed muster with the NCAA Clearinghouse.
If this occurs, this will be a major coup for Duke and Coach K, as the Devils are facing a near-crisis situation in their backcourt after the losses of Gerald Henderson (NBA) and Elliot Williams (transfer) in the offseason. Dawkins will provide MUCH-needed depth on the perimeter, turning a paper-thin rotation of Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith into a more daunting trio including the 6′4 shooting guard. While Dawkins isn’t a point guard but instead a shooter with inside-the-gym range, his ability to spell Scheyer and Smith suddenly makes Duke a much tougher team for 2009-10.
We’re not convinced that this solves all of Duke’s problems going into next season, as the Devils still won’t have an elite playmaker in the backcourt, but this may mean that Coach K won’t feel the need to play zone defense after all. Speaking of defense, reports are that Dawkins doesn’t exactly excel in that area, so if he figures that Duke’s necessity will dictate automatic minutes for him, he’ll still need to address that deficiency in order to satisfy Coach K (much as Elliot Williams did last year). By any objective measure, however, the potential addition of Dawkins to the 09-10 Blue Devils has no downside, and their fans must be absolutely thrilled with this pleasant surprise.
12am Update: 610 Sports in Kansas City is reporting that the Henrys are sticking with their commitment to KU. Bill Self must have brought in the heavy hitters for this one. Breathe a sigh of relief, KU fans.
8pm Update: Bill Self and Danny Manning are reportedly meeting with the Henry family in OKC tonight to make presumably a last ditch effort to keep them at Kansas. We should have this all sorted out by tomorrow.
Honestly, we read some buzz about this yesterday, but it sounded so ridiculous we simply continued on down our reader. Then we read Andy Katz’s report this afternoon and suddenly it appears that what we thought was a cockamamie rumor (see: Coach K to Lakers) has some serious legs. If the reports are true that Xavier Henry and his brother, CJ, are waffling on their commitments to Kansas for the 2009-10 season, and instead are going to end up in Lexington as part of John Calipari’s GCOAT (greatest class of all-time), then the torches and pitchforks in Kansas may already be en route to the Bluegrass. According to the Henrys’ father, it appears to be a done deal. From a similar Gary Parrish report:
“If it wasn’t for his momma saying that ‘I would not go to Kentucky, I would not move down to Kentucky,’ Xavier would have been at Kentucky,’” Carl Henry said during the radio interview. “He would have been at Kentucky. So Xavier says, ‘I’m going to go to Kansas,’ even though … what he wanted to do is go to Kentucky, play under Coach Cal. That’s what he wanted to do. I expressed this to [Kansas] coach [Bill] Self. I told him.” Carl Henry said his wife no longer wants to influence her son’s decision. “So guess what? Kid might have a change of mind,” Carl Henry said. “That’s what I [told] coach Self.”
Notwithstanding what his mother thinks of moving a couple of states away, the only reasonable explanation for this (since the Henrys have been re-assessing their situation for two weeks) is that Kentucky’s Jodie Meeks somewhat unexpectedly opted to stay in the NBA Draft. Given that Xavier Henry is a shooting guard, he likely didn’t want to go to UK to play behind Meeks for one season, but with Meeks out of the picture, he would now have the opportunity to play for the coach he originally committed to.
If this ends up happening, John Calipari would have an embarrassment of riches in his first season at the helm at UK – quite possibly on paper the greatest incoming class of all-time, eclipsing the 1991 Michigan quintet of Webber, Howard, Rose, Jackson and King. Of course, this group of young Cats will be measured by their accomplishments in college and not their paper rankings, but Wildcat fans must be multi-orgasmic at the potential of this group – three of the top six and four of the top twenty players in America.
John Wall – PG (#2 overall)
DeMarcus Cousins – C (#3 overall)
Xavier Henry – SG (#6 overall)
Daniel Orton - C (#19 overall)
Eric Bledsoe - PG (#52 overall)
Jon Hood – SF (#66 overall)
CJ Henry – PG (walk-on)
Darnell Dodson – SF (juco)
As for KU fans, they’ll still have plenty of returning talent in Sherron Collins, Cole Aldrich, Tyshawn Taylor and the Morris brothers, but they could have really used the explosive scoring from the wing that they currently lack. Their message boards are already apoplectic, but as one guarded commenter noted, ‘you think this is bad… check back tomorrow.’ Oh we will.
It’s no secret that the high school Class of 2008 was one of the weakest in recent memory. Coming into the 2008-09 regular season, could you realistically point to any one player who would impact their team enough to become another Derrick Rose or a Michael Beasley (class of 2007), a Greg Oden or a Kevin Durant (class of 2006)? No way, right? The consensus #1 player, Brandon Jennings, high-tailed it to Europe when it became apparent he wasn’t going to become eligible to play college ball at Arizona, where he proceeded to burn up foreign nets at the clip of 6 ppg and 2 apg in limited action (17 mpg). The rest of the elite remained stateside, but from Jrue Holiday on down to his teammate Malcolm Lee at UCLA, the collegians too had middling degrees of success. We use the RSCI top 20 ratings provided by Statsheet for our table below.
The last two summers (here are 2007 and 2008), we’ve taken it upon ourselves to review how these one-and-dones did during their freshman year to determine whether their presence on campus for a mere 6-8 months was worth it for the schools involved. As it turned out this time around, only four college freshmen (+ Jennings) thought they were ready for the NBA Draft after only one season, so let’s take a look at how things turned out for them and their teams last year.
2009 One-and-Dones
Memphis – Worth It. After losing three starters from their 2008 national runner-up team, Memphis could have slid back into relative mediocrity by Tiger standards – very good, but not great. One-and-doner Tyreke Evans prevented that from happening. He averaged 17/5/4 assts/2 stls in 29 mpg and was the most efficient player on the team. He also showed that he was a gamer, dropping 33 huge points in the Tigers’ loss to Missouri and leading a furious comeback from 24 points down in that contest. More importantly, Memphis was 6-3 and ranked #24 in the nation when Evans moved from the shooting guard to the point guard slot; the Tigers then ran off 27 straight wins en route to a #2 seed and another Sweet Sixteen appearance, much of it due to Evans’ command of the team. Furthermore, prior to John Calipari’s departure, Memphis was building a pretty impressive reputation as a successful stopover for NBA-level point guards. Is there any coincidence that John Wall followed Calipari to Kentucky after seeing what Evans and Rose were able to do at Memphis? We’d have to say that Tyreke Evans coming to Memphis for one year was most definitely worth it for that program.
USC – Worth It. USC knew when they signed Demar DeRozan that they were unlikely to have this acrobatic swingman on campus for more than one year. For much of that year, however, it wasn’t looking like a good fit. Three points in a loss vs. Seton Hall. A 2-9 shooting night against Missouri. Six turnovers and fouling out of another loss at Washington. But around midseason, as things began to click in DeRozan’s game, USC benefitted. He provided a consistent threat on the wing and may arguably have been the Trojans’ top option in the last six weeks of the season. His season numbers were good – 14/6 on 52% shooting – but his stats from February on were better – 16/7 on 54% shooting with 22 of his season-total 51 assists coming in the last nine games. USC rode DeRozan’s playmaking abilities to win its first-ever Pac-10 Tournament and a convincing win over BC in the NCAAs before succumbing to national runner-up Michigan St in the second round. Or, in others words, more than what OJ Mayo was able to produce as a one-and-doner in 2007. Notwithstanding all the choas that has enveloped this program in the interim, we’d have to say that getting DeRozan to USC for one year was worth it.
Ohio St. – Not Worth It. For the third year in a row, Thad Matta lost a one-and-done player whose actual performance during his only season in Columbus didn’t really mesh with what you might expect from an elite prospect. He lost Daequan Cook in 2007 (along with stars Greg Oden and Mike Conley, Jr.), Kosta Koufos last year, and BJ Mullens this season. To date, we’ve yet to see any indication that Mullens has any discernible basketball skill other than being big (7′0). He averaged 9/5 in about 20 mpg with only two starts over the course of the season, but as an indication of how much Matta ultimately valued him, Mullens’ minutes tailed off considerably in the last 6-8 games. His defense was often considered suspect (37 blks all season) and he earned a reputation for loafing and failing to get back downcourt after an offensive possession. OSU had a solid season, mostly on the back of super-soph Evan Turner, but it’s difficult to construct an argument that Mullens brought much of anything to the Buckeye program other than an ability to get drafted in the first round. Ultimately, that may have been all Matta wanted to get from him, as he’s shown a substantial willingness to take one-and-dones every year that he can. Still, we don’t think that Mullens was on balance a good pickup for the Buckeyes, so we’re saying that he wasn’t worth it.
UCLA – Not Worth It. After Kevin Love’s departure from Westwood as a one-and-done, we thought UCLA might continue that trend this season with another superb guard ranked #2 in his class named Jrue Holiday. We were wrong. Holiday is exceptionally athletic, but he never seemed to ‘get it’ with respect to how Ben Howland runs his team and expects his players to execute. When we watched Holiday play, we saw a player who had a tendency to play out of control and get frustrated when things weren’t going his way (in other words, like most freshmen). Had Holiday stuck around for another couple of years at UCLA, he probably could have tamed his tendencies to become an elite guard in college basketball, but we’ll never know. After averaging a mere 9/4/4 assts as a starter who seriously tailed off down the stretch (single figure points in 10 of his last 13 games) ending in a second round NCAA blowout loss to Villanova, Howland may be questioning why he bothered to take this player for only one season. His contributions to the program were minimal and his general unhappiness with the program could actually end up hurting UCLA’s recruiting in the future more than it ever helps to have gotten him. Unlike Demar DeRozan across town at USC, Holiday wasn’t worth it.
*Brandon Jennings – Push. Of course, this is a weird situation because Jennings didn’t play for an American college last season, instead deciding to go to the Italian leagues and get paid for his services. He would have been drafted higher last season had he been eligible to come out, but then again, so would have all these one-and-doners except for Evans (who at #4 is about where he would have been last year). Playing in Europe didn’t hurt him very much despite his paltry stats, but it didn’t appear to help him, either, in any way other than financially. It’ll be interesting to watch how he develops in the NBA now. You’d have to believe that Jennings’ previously indomitable confidence would be somewhat tempered after spending a year as the backup-cum-waterboy. We’re quite certain he had images in his head of going to Italy and winning MVP in his rookie season, but the broken American basketball system doesn’t exactly inspire schoolboy humility. Will that carry over to his development as an NBA player, or will he be able to accept his European comeuppance and use that to improve his game in the next few years? There’s no way of knowing at this point.
One-and-Dones: Historical Snapshot
As stated above, RTC has done this for the three years in which the one-and-done rule has been in existence. We’ve made a qualitative determination as to whether recruiting a particular one-and-done was worth it for each program, and what we’ve found is that so far it’s been a roughly equivalent proposition. Of the 24 one-and-dones in three years, we’ve found thirteen instances (57%) where the player in question was either worth it or well worth it, “it” being the trouble of landing a top player and dealing with the disruption and potential hole he leaves in the program after one season. Additionally, in seven of the thirteen ‘worth it’ instances, we found that the player was such a great boost to the program in terms of success and marketing that the residual effects of his presence there will be felt for many years after he’s gone (e.g., OSU and Memphis making it to the NCAA Championship Game). On the other hand, we can only count ten occasions (42%) where a one-and-done player wasn’t worth the trouble of getting him into the program. So let’s look at it this way… if you were a college coach and you knew you had a historically better than even chance that recruiting a John Wall or Derrick Favors would end up making your program better, and a 25-30% chance of truly elevating your program into an elite echelon, there’s no question you do it, right? What’s the downside? Your player doesn’t do a whole lot, leaves after one year and you end up where you were before he got there. Exactly. Not only is recruiting one-and-dones worth the risk (so long as you’re doing it legally, Tim Floyd), but if you’re not doing it then you’re putting yourself at a serious competitive disadvantage.
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