Big Ten M5: 11.21.14 Edition

Posted by Alex Moscoso & Brendan Brody on November 21st, 2014

morning5_bigten

  1. Anyone who watched the Wisconsin game on Wednesday night saw what could have been the dunk of the season from Wisconsin-Green Bay guard Keifer Sykes. Sykes almost went full “Deandre Jordan on Brandon Knight” in his missed dunk attempt over preseason All-American Frank Kaminsky, causing the preseason All-American to take to Twitter after the game to talk about how the dunk “would have ruined my confidence as a basketball player.” This led to a very lighthearted exchange between the two players that you can read here. It’s nice to see two great players who both hail from Chicago being supportive and recognizing the skills that each of them possesses.
  2. Many of us here at the microsite had written off Indiana after a tumultuous offseason, but after their 74-68 win over #22 SMU in Bloomington last night, we may need to reevaluate this group. Freshman sensation James Blackmon Jr. led the way with 26 points. This game also marked the return of three players from their suspensions — Troy Williams, Stanford Robinson, and Emmett Holt. What once looked like a bleak future for Tom Crean may be turning brighter thanks to the outstanding play of Blackmon Jr. — who has now proven he can play at a high level against nationally relevant teams. The freshman may singlehandedly pull the Hoosiers from the valley it found itself in just a couple weeks back.
  3. In the midst of all the holiday tournaments going on either this weekend and next week, Michigan State announced that it will be part of the Wooden Legacy tournament next season. The other headliner in the field will be Arizona. Providence and Boise State also will be playing in Anaheim along with Boston College, Evansville, Santa Clara, and UC Irvine. The Spartans will lose two of their top three players from this year’s squad, but should return Denzel Valentine and Matt Costello next season.
  4. It’s not always going to be pretty basketball, but if you’re into watching a player just go completely “Kobe” and chuck shot after shot, look no further than Penn State and D.J. Newbill. The prolific scorer put up 35 points on 33 shots in the Nittany Lions’ 97-106 double-overtime loss to Charlotte. Newbill had a chance to score the game winner with an open lane to the basket in the dwindling seconds of the first overtime, but it was blocked by Charlotte. The 35-point total was the most for a Penn State player since 1995, but without many other options on this team — especially with Tim Frazier graduated — look for more nights like these from Newbill. It’ll be entertaining if nothing else.
  5. Maryland also struggled in its quest to stay undefeated, yet managed to pull away from Fordham to notch a win on Thursday night. Unlike Northwestern, their struggles were on the offensive end. This is what senior leader Dez Wells wanted however, as he spoke to wanting to see how the young team handled things when they weren’t hitting shots. They ended up winning this one on the defensive end, holding the Rams to only eight free throw attempts and to 30.6 percent shooting from the field. A game like this should help them, especially once conference play hits. They now know that they can still get a win even if things aren’t clicking on the offensive end of the court.
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Could Indiana Upset SMU Tonight?

Posted by Brendan Brody on November 20th, 2014

Indiana was routinely called to task last season (mainly by Dan Dakich) for playing an underwhelming non-conference schedule. There was some evidence that loading up on cupcakes seemed to hurt the Hoosiers, as they clearly weren’t ready for the arduous nature of the Big Ten slate once conference play started. This season Tom Crean’s team is challenging itself by taking on SMU tonight in Assembly Hall. The Mustangs are coming off a beatdown at the hands of Gonzaga in Spokane, but bring excellent size and experience to Bloomington.

Yogi Ferrell has to run the show and score frequently for Indiana to improve this season. (Darron Cummings, AP)

Yogi Ferrell needs to get the better of SMU’s Nic Moore in the point guard battle on tonight. (Getty)

Here’s how the Hoosiers can get a quality non-conference win tonight:

  • Keep up the Hot Three-Point Shooting: The Hoosiers have started the season shooting the deep ball at an insane 21-of-38 clip (55.3%). Gonzaga overwhelmed SMU on Monday night with size in its 72-56 win, but the Zags also hit 10 three-pointers to create some distance. Indiana has similar weaponry on the perimeter with its trio of Yogi Ferrell, James Blackmon Jr., and Robert Johnson, and will have to get by with what they’ve been doing in their first two wins– primarily spreading the floor with shooters, using the drive-and-kick game, and getting out in transition. As always with Indiana, turnovers will be a key. If the Hoosiers get too sloppy, SMU has the ability to take advantage of those opportunities.

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Big Ten M5: 11.17.14 Edition

Posted by Eric Clark on November 17th, 2014

morning5_bigten

  1. Former Indiana coach Mike Davis will make his first return to Assembly Hall tonight since he resigned from the head coaching position at Indiana in 2006. Upon his hiring in 2000, Davis was immediately met with animosity from Bob Knight apologists, setting the tone for his tumultuous six-year tenure as the Hoosiers’ head coach. Indiana played for one national title under Davis in 2002 (losing to Maryland), but his teams went 42-38 in his final three seasons at the helm. Currently embattled head coach Tom Crean said he hopes Davis gets a “tremendous reception” tonight when he brings Texas Southern (0-1) to Bloomington – but Davis is guaranteed to be greeted with plenty of audible heckles as well.
  2. Michigan State skated by Navy on Friday night by a score of 64-59, raising a few eyebrows around the college basketball community. But according to Lansing State Journal‘s Graham Couch, that kind of close win could be beneficial for the Spartans in the long run. Tom Izzo inserted three new starters in his lineup (Travis Trice, Alvin Ellis III and Matt Costello), but he only got double-figure scoring from Trice and Branden Dawson. Head coach Tom Izzo said he needs to see more production from his returning starters, Denzel Valentine and Dawson, but it’s an absolute certainty that Izzo would much rather have the bump in the road come now than come later on in the season.
  3. Rutgers opened its season with a 17-point home loss to George Washington, getting beat in just about every relevant statistical category. Myles Mack led the Scarlet Knights with 14 points, but he didn’t get much help from his supporting cast. Freshman Mike Williams poured in 10 points off the bench, but no other Knights reached double figures. Junior Etou and newcomer Bishop Daniels went a combined 1-of-16 from the field and Kadeem Jack is on the mend, so there aren’t many positives for Rutgers fans right now – unless you count D.J. Foreman’s monstrous dunk. And that’s certainly worth something.
  4. Caris LeVert was excellent in Michigan’s season-opening win over Hillsdale on Saturday, notching 20 points, nine assists and eight rebounds in the Wolverines’ 92-68 victory. LeVert and point guard Spike Albrecht were both relatively unknown recruits coming out of high school, but the two are now Michigan’s permanent team captains for the 2014-15 season. LeVert was one of three Wolverines to score more than 20 points on Saturday, whereas Albrecht came off the bench to score four. Head coach John Beilein said Albrecht and starting point guard Derrick Walton Jr. will be on the court together a lot this season, a rare dual-point guard situation that you should keep your eye on.
  5. Purdue’s Vince Edwards, a true freshman, introduced himself to the Boilermakers faithful in a big way this weekend, scoring 13 points and grabbing eight rebounds in his debut before turning around and dropping 26 points in a win over IUPUI on Sunday. Kendall Stephens shined alongside Edwards on Sunday, pouring in 24 points with six three-pointers as Purdue shot 50 percent from the field. The Boilermakers host Grambling State on Thursday before facing Kansas State in Maui on November 24. Purdue’s going to need more out of A.J. Hammons sooner than later, as the talented but enigmatic big man gathered a total of seven rebounds and scored only 11 points in his first two games.
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RTC Big Ten Preseason Rankings: #14 to #10

Posted by Eric Clark on November 11th, 2014

With college basketball’s regular season finally tipping off on Friday, the time has come for the Big Ten microsite writers to make their predictions public. We’ll begin by showcasing the five projected bottom-feeders of the Big Ten, the teams we forecast to finish from 14th to 10th.

14. Rutgers

  • What they do well: There won’t be many positives for Rutgers in its inaugural Big Ten season — especially after three would-be seniors transferred during the offseason – but it looks like head coach Eddie Jordan brought in a solid recruiting class. His prized recruit is junior Bishop Daniels, a transfer from ASA College in New York City. Daniels, a former Miami player, will help solidify Rutgers’ backcourt with last year’s leading scorer, Myles Mack.
  • What they don’t do well: Rebound. The Scarlet Knights only had two players average more than six rebounds per game last season (Kadeem Jack and Wally Judge), and Judge is no longer with the team. Rutgers was eighth in the AAC last season in rebounding margin, averaging 1.8 fewer rebounds per game than their opponents. Ten of the 12 Big Ten teams, on the other hand, had positive margins.
Myles Mack will be one of the lone bright spots in Rutgers' inaugural Big Ten season.

Myles Mack will be one of the lone bright spots in Rutgers’ inaugural Big Ten season.

  • Get to know: Kadeem Jack. Jack is Rutgers’ lone established presence in the post on an otherwise young and inexperienced roster. The 6’9″ senior grabbed almost seven rebounds per game last year and shot 50 percent from the field. He’s likely the only Big Ten-caliber forward on the team.
  • Why they’ll finish 14th: Rutgers lost three senior players via transfer and has only two players, Mack and Jack, who have proven that they’re ready for Big Ten basketball. Defenses will key on those two, leaving an inexperienced cast to do – or rather, try to do – most of the heavy lifting. Eddie Jordan will overuse the phrase “growing pains” this season.
  • Why they’ll finish higher: Bishop Daniels has no problem adjusting back to Division I basketball, and freshman Mike Williams establishes himself as one of the best long-range shooters in the conference. Kadeem Jack thrives down low with the outside presence of Jack, Daniels and Williams.

13. Northwestern

  • What they do well: Defend – at least, better than the Wildcats used to. Head coach Chris Collins made a concerted effort to move away from the “open door policy” defense that plagued Northwestern in Bill Carmody’s final years at the helm. Collins’ team held opponents to a 41.1 percent field goal shooting last year, good enough for third in the conference.
  • What they don’t do well: Score. The Wildcats ranked last in the Big Ten in scoring last season, averaging 59.5 points per game. Illinois, which ranked second-to-last, averaged almost five more points per game. The Wildcats also were last in the Big Ten in field goal percentage.

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Big Ten M5: 11.07.14 Edition

Posted by Alex Moscoso on November 7th, 2014

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  1. On Wednesday, the NCAA decided that Duje Dukan would get one more year of eligibility and could play in all but the first two games of the upcoming season. Our newest microsite writer, Eric Clark, wrote about the specifics of the decision earlier in the week. The crux of it is that Dukan took a medical redshirt in 2012-13 after already playing in a couple of scrimmages, making his eligibility for a fourth year questionable. In the end, this is very good news for Wisconsin because for all their talent in the starting lineup, the Badgers are not very deep. On Thursday, Zach Bohannan, a former Wisconsin player and teammate of Dukan, wrote on CBSSports’ blog about the complexity of the medical redshirt rule and called for the NCAA to make its application consistent to all players regardless of class. That would make sense, but that’s not exactly what the NCAA is known for. Speaking of Wisconsin…
  2. That same night, we got to see the Badgers in action for the first time in an exhibition game against Wisconsin-Parkside. The game ended with a 37-point Badgers’ win, and Frank Kaminsky showed why he’s a consensus Naismith candidate by contributing 19 points and 11 rebounds in 22 minutes. He even generated a Sportscenter-worthy highlight as he showed off his ball-handling skills, going coast to coast before dishing to a teammate for an assist. We all know exhibition games mean absolutely nothing, but Frank the Tank certainly seemed like he was already in midseason form.
  3. And now for your daily update on the circus formerly known as Indiana basketball. We are now getting a clearer picture on how severe Devin Davis’ head injury is and how long the road to recovery will be for the sophomore. While Davis is progressing, simple tasks remain difficult for him. As Tom Crean describes it: “Progress this morning is sitting up in a chair. Progress is taking a walk.” There’s been a lot of chatter about whether the Indiana head man will be fired during or after this season, so it’s easy to forget that a young man is dealing with a very serious setback in his life. We hope that Davis fully recovers and that this experience, not just the threat of bad publicity, motivates the rest of the Hoosiers’ roster to modify their behavior.
  4. There’s been a good amount of discussion this preseason as to whether Nebraska can continue the success it built last season. Most prognosticators believe the Cornhuskers can, thanks in large part to players like Terran Petteway, Shavon Shields and Tai Webster. But if Tim Miles’ team wants to improve, it is going to need other players to step up beyond that trio. One such candidate is backup point guard Benny Parker, who is hoping that the work he put in the offseason to improve his shooting will make him more of an offensive threat during games. If Parker can become a consistent shooter from deep, that will add another scorer while also opening things up for Petteway and his mid-range jump shot.
  5. Finally, many basketball programs that do not typically recruit top 100 prospects have started to look overseas to find promising talent. For example, Patty Mills became a star at St. Mary’s via Australia and Alex Len became a lottery pick at Maryland via Ukraine. Alex Olah, Northwestern’s returning big man, hails from Romania and now plays basketball at one of the most elite academic institutions in the country. Henry Bushnell from SBNation did a really interesting profile on the junior. It describes his journey from humble beginnings in low-middle class Eastern Europe to now walking around as a semi-celebrity in Evanston. Olah will probably never be a star in this league, but that doesn’t mean his story — and others who travel from afar to be part of the sport we love — shouldn’t be shared.
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Indiana Needs Yogi Ferrell Now More Than Ever

Posted by Brendan Brody on November 5th, 2014

Yogi Ferrell’s basketball career has been one of big expectations, beginning a decade ago when he was ranked as the best player in his class as a 4th grader. He’s been the starting point guard since arriving in Bloomington, when he debuted on a team that spent a good portion of the season as the top-ranked squad in the country and featured two future lottery picks in Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo. As a sophomore he was asked to carry the offense on an underwhelming squad that finished 17-15 and didn’t sniff the postseason. Turnovers plagued the Hoosiers last season (21.8% of all possessions), and miscues off the floor are threatening to derail this season. Turmoil in the wake of two players involved in a serious accident and two others now suspended for failing a summer drug test have brought out the vultures. The Hoosier fan base is losing patience with Tom Crean, but criticism has a way of petering out when a team starts winning. Now as a junior, Ferrell’s role has become even more important on a team littered with underclassmen and under fire from various sources.

Yogi Ferrell has to run the show and score frequently for Indiana to improve this season. (Darron Cummings, AP)

Yogi Ferrell has to run the show and score frequently for Indiana to improve this season. (Darron Cummings, AP)

The Hoosiers owned the 33oth worst turnover percentage in the country last season, and it would be easy to blame their point guard for those numbers. But in reality, Ferrell possessed an 18.0 percent turnover rate on 25.0 percent usage. To put that into context, other lead guards around the conference, such as Derrick Walton, Keith Appling, Aaron Craft and Traveon Jackson, turned the ball over at a higher rate than Ferrell despite a lower usage rate. He also led the team in scoring (17.3 PPG) and assists (3.9 APG) last season. His shooting numbers weren’t great around the rim, but he drilled 40.0 percent of his shots from behind the arc and converted 82.4 percent from the foul line. One could reasonably argue that he should have done a better job getting another lottery pick, Noah Vonleh, involved in the offense, but there were also times when the big man simply wasn’t assertive enough or in foul trouble. With shooters on the wing this year like freshmen James Blackmon Jr. and Robert Johnson, Ferrell shouldn’t have to feel like he has to score quite so much. The Hoosiers appear to be thin in the post on the defensive end, so Ferrell and the wings like Stanford Robinson and Troy Williams will have to fly around the perimeter to hassle opposing ball-handlers. This team should strive to play up-tempo on both ends of the court to counteract its relative lack of size in the pivot. Read the rest of this entry »

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Big Ten M5: 11.05.14 Edition

Posted by Brendan Brody on November 5th, 2014

morning5_bigten

  1. By now, everyone who follows college basketball on a regular basis has probably heard about all the off-the-court chaos at Indiana. This was already going to be a challenging season in Bloomington for head coach Tom Crean, but now with these other issues plaguing his team, it could turn out to be the most difficult season of his career. The only thing right now that will likely make all the noise go away is if the Hoosiers figure out a way to overachieve on the court — Crean may need a 20-win season and an NCAA Tournament berth to keep his job. With the overall parity in this season’s Big Ten, however, this could be a significant uphill battle.
  2. Isaac Haas is the biggest name of the five-man class that Purdue brought in this season, but 5’10” point guard PJ Thompson showed in the Boilermakers’ scrimmage on Sunday that he may be ready to contribute as well. The freshman led the team in assists and steals in Purdue’s 89-52 victory over California (PA). Thompson has plenty of competition at the point guard spot with Jon Octeus and Bryson Scott also on board, but his contributions will only make the team’s depth that much stronger.
  3. Defensive intensity has long been the hallmark of Tom Izzo-coached teams, with Michigan State often playing a rugged, bruising style that led to numerous Final Four trips with him at the helm. This offseason he focused more on the offensive end of the floor, and it showed in the Spartans’ first exhibition game. His team put up 97 points in a win over The Masters — whatever that is — but it also gave up 19 points in the first eight minutes of the game, leaving the veteran coach less than impressed with his team’s effort on that end of the floor. The loss of Gary Harris to the NBA leaves Izzo without one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, so Bryn Forbes or Alvin Ellis III will have to show that they can learn to lock down the perimeter as the head coach tries to figure out his rotation.
  4. Former Iowa great Roy Marble received devastating news in August when he learned that he has terminal cancer. Marble at the time lived in Iowa, where he was seen at many Hawkeyes’ home games cheering on his son Devyn Marble over the last few years. He’s now relocated back to his hometown of Flint, Michigan, to be closer to his family. His youngest son Carlo Marble — a potential Division I football and basketball recruit — has enrolled at Sexton High School in Flint. His basketball coach there is Carlton Valentine, the father of Michigan State’s Denzel Valentine. Our thoughts and prayers go out to the Marble family and Iowa as they deal with this horrible ordeal.
  5. ESPN has been unveiling its top 100 player rankings, and their latest edition (players #11-#19) had a distinct B1G flavor to it as Indiana’s Yogi Ferrell (#17), Nebraska’s Terran Petteway (#16), Michigan State’s Branden Dawson (#15), and Michigan’s Caris LeVert (#13) made the list. Each of these players is likely to make an appearance on our own all-league teams that will be coming out in the next week. Twelve Big Ten players have been named on the countdown so far, and it’s highly likely that Wisconsin’s Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky will land in the top 10 soon.
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Morning Five: 11.05.14 Edition

Posted by nvr1983 on November 5th, 2014

morning5

  1. It was less than a five days ago that everything seemed calm at Indiana. Then early on Saturday morning, sophomore Devin Davis was run over by freshman Emmitt Holt, who was charged with driving under the influence. Davis, who was rushed to the hospital in critical condition and now appears to be on his way to recovering, was cited in the police report as being primarily responsible for the accident. Not much after news broke of Davis’ recovery, Tom Crean announced that sophomores Troy Williams and Stanford Robinson had been suspended for four games each in what has been reported as being the result of multiple failed drug tests. These incidents combined with a couple of earlier arrests for alcohol use led some individuals including former Hoosier guard and coach Dan Dakich to question Crean’s job security. We agree that Crean’s job shouldn’t be that secure after all these off-the-court issues, but doubt that this would be the primary reason for his dismissal as schools have shown on many occasions that they care more about the bottom line than the optics of their school.
  2. With yesterday being election day across the country, there were plenty of political pundits voicing their opinion to anybody who would listen (and many who wouldn’t). What we did not expect was for Mike Krzyzewski to voice an opinion–that President Obama was mismanaging the ISIS crisis–that would make national headlines. To be fair to Krzyzewski, the comments were made last month in front of an audience of military officers, defense contractors, and others in reference to the President’s pledge to not use ground troops in the fight. This is not the first time that Krzyzewski has been critical of President Obama as he has chided Obama for spending time on a NCAA Tournament bracket (that doesn’t pick Duke to win) instead of focusing on fixing the economy. While those comments were more in jest we would be interested to see the interaction Krzyzewski and Obama have if the Blue Devils win the NCAA title this year and are invited to the White House.
  3. It turns out that North Carolina might have more than just the NCAA to worry about in the wake of its recent academic scandal. While some UNC fans have been worried about the NCAA handing down its version of the death penalty, they (at least the ones who care about the institution more than just the sports programs) should probably care more about an upcoming review by Southern Association of Colleges and Schools’ Commission on Colleges. The group that does not deal specifically with sports had already issued a report about the academic scandal in 2012 suggesting that the school offer courses to make up for the fraudulent one many students took. Now with the findings of the Wainstein report public they are taking another look given the findings of the unprecedented scope. The sanctions can range from a warning (essentially a slap on the wrist) to removal of accreditation (a real death penalty that means a school can no longer receive accreditation). We are not sure how often the group has decided to remove accreditation, but it would typically lead to a school having to shut down. Now we doubt that the group would do something that would make such an institution as significant as UNC essentially die, but as the group noted the scope of the scandal is unprecedented.
  4. With the season about to get started we will start hearing more from people like Ken Pomeroy since they will have new data to analyze, On Monday, we mentioned how useless preseason polls were. It turns out that we were only partially right. Looking back at the AP preseason poll since 1990, Pomeroy found out that the order of teams ranked above 15 matters to a degree, but below that the order is essentially meaningless in terms of its predictive value. The analysis compares a team’s preseason ranking to its NCAA Tournament seed, which is probably more reflective of the quality of their season overall than just how far they advance in the NCAA Tournament. So while we still question the degree of interest in preseason polls it turns out that they do have some value.
  5. The hits just keep coming for Hawaii. Fortunately for the school’s athletic director and everybody associated with it they are still located in Hawaii. Less than a week after the school fired head coach Gib Arnold and assistant coach Brandyn Akana, star forward Isaac Fotu announced that he was leaving the school to play professionally after the school had ruled that he was ineligible to play pending the results of a NCAA investigation. Given how slowly the NCAA typically works on these matters we do not necessarily fault Fotu, a first team All-Big West player who averaged 14.9 points and 6.1 rebounds per game, for leaving rather than wait for the NCAA to hand down its judgement and look forward to playing for an interim coach if he was even cleared to play. We are not privy to the details of what Fotu is being investigated for (reportedly impermissible benefits), but Fotu has stated that he has hired an attorney to clear his name, which at this point is somewhat inconsequential since he will be off somewhere getting paid to play basketball.
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Seven Years Later, Indiana in Free Fall Once Again

Posted by Alex Moscoso (@AlexPMoscoso) on November 4th, 2014

A little less than seven years ago, Indiana basketball was in free fall after head coach Kelvin Sampson admitted to numerous NCAA violations stemming from extra phone calls to recruits. We would learn soon afterward that not only was the coaching staff behaving inappropriately, but that there was rampant drug use among the players and some of them had altogether stopped attending classes. The last few days in Bloomington have felt eerily similar. First, news broke over the weekend about a car accident involving two Indiana basketball players, sophomore Devin Davis and freshman Emmitt Holt. According to details from the crash report, Holt hit Davis with his car after dropping him off when Davis unexpectedly entered the roadway. Both players are under the age of 21 and had been drinking, but only Holt was cited for illegal consumption of alcohol after registering a blood alcohol content of 0.021. Meanwhile, Davis is still in the hospital with a fractured skull. On Monday afternoon, ESPN’s Jeff Goodman reported that two more Hoosiers — sophomores Troy Williams and Stanford Robinson – have been suspended by the school for failed drug tests. For Tom Crean’s program, these most recent events total four off-the-court incidents involving almost half of his roster since February.

If it wasn't the case before, after this weekend it is apparent, Tom Crean is fighting for his job. (Getty)

If it wasn’t apparent before, it’s pretty clear after this weekend: Tom Crean is fighting for his job. (Getty)

With the spate of recent off-the-court incidents combined with questionable on-court finishes the last couple of seasons, Crean’s future in Bloomington is in serious question. The blowback from these events reached a tipping point in the media yesterday. First, Indianapolis Star’s sports columnist Gregg Doyel stated that the Indiana administration should explore releasing its head coach if another incident occurs. Dan Dakich, the interim head coach at Indiana before Crean, expressed even more indignant frustration across his Indianapolis-based radio program’s airwaves. Dakich was upset by the lack of institutional control apparent, stating, “These guys decide it’s more important to go out drinking than prepare for a scrimmage and compete for a job. Indiana basketball stands for nothing. Absolutely nothing.” And this was all before the Williams/Robinson news broke out. (Doyel has since said that Crean can’t survive). Finally, as if his day wasn’t stress-filled enough, the Indiana head coach had to fend off the anger on his weekly Monday night radio show. When a caller said he blamed the head coach for all the recent transgressions, he responded, “You’re more than welcome to put it on me.” Read the rest of this entry »

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Assessing the KenPom B1G Preseason Ratings

Posted by Brendan Brody on October 29th, 2014

College basketball guru Ken Pomeroy released his preseason rankings a few days ago. These ratings are not your standard preseason website or magazine predictions because they are completely data-driven. To put it simply, Pomeroy is more than likely a great deal smarter than you or me. His tempo-free statistics remove some of the spin and fluff of the season in favor of measurable aspects like efficiency, schedule strength and luck. Uninformed pundits may talk about a team being great defensively because it gives up a very low number of points per game, but it’s wise to also evaluate the same notion through the prism of points per 100 possessions. That team may be great defensively as a matter of fact, but it also might just play at a really slow pace with fewer possessions (and hence, fewer opportunities for the opponent to score). Here are some observations about how the Big Ten fared in Pomeroy’s first list of ratings.

Tom Crean's Indiana squad starts the season just outside top 25 according to Ken Pomeroy. (AP).

Tom Crean’s Indiana squad starts the season just outside top 25 according to Ken Pomeroy. (AP).

  • Indiana Rates More Favorably Here Than With the Media. Pomeroy thinks that the Indiana offense will be much better after it finished 2013-14 ranked 127th in offensive efficiency. He also believes that the Hoosiers’ pace will quicken, from 106.5 points per 100 possessions to 110.9. For this to happen, the Hoosiers will have to cut down on their turnovers. They ranked last in the league in that metric last season, turning the ball over on 21.8 percent of the time. With Yogi Ferrell now having more help on the wings with freshman James Blackmon Jr. and Robert Johnson coming into the program along with transfer Nick Zeisloft, Pomeroy thinks Tom Crean’s unit will be a good deal more efficient on the offensive end. The media picked Indiana ninth in its preseason poll, so it looks as though Pomeroy’s model values the Hoosiers a bit higher than the eye test.

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Big Ten M5: 10.24.14 Edition

Posted by Alex Moscoso on October 24th, 2014

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  1. Obviously, the biggest change this season is the addition of Maryland and Rutgers to the league as the Big Ten made the final chess move in this round of conference expansion. Tom Dienhart wrote a nice piece about how expansion may reclaim some east coast favorability for the conference. Now that the as-currently-constructed Big East is no longer the dominant college hoops brand, it leaves a vacuum in the most populous corner of the country. It’s no coincidence that the Big Ten is having their conference tournament in Washington, DC in 2017. They are battling the ACC for the Northeast’s eyes and recruits. And now that they have three teams in the area — and added even more markets to their TV network — they have the footprint to compete.
  2. The Terrapins and Scarlet Knights may be the freshest faces in the league this season, but Chris Collins is still pretty new as he enters his second season as Northwestern‘s head coach. ESPN‘s Myron Metcalf spent some time with the former Duke assistant in Evanston, and asked him when he thought the Wildcats would make the NCAA Tournament. “I definitely think it is [around the corner]. When that happens I don’t know.” That’s as optimistic as you can be for something that’s never happened, EVER. But Collins has reasons to be optimistic, they were a Top 15 team in the country in adjusted defensive rating last season, they return four of their five starters, and Top 100 recruit Vic Law joins their squad. Pair that with everyone besides Wisconsin being a little bit down from last season, there just might be an opening for these Wildcats to make history.
  3. Michigan lost a good amount of its backcourt from last season. This year, all eyes will be on Caris Levert to make up for the loss in scoring and for Derrick Walton Jr. to run the team’s offense. But not as much attention has been paid to the other likely backcourt starter, Zak Irvin. The sophomore and former Mr. Indiana was extremely effective from the outside in limited minutes, but provided little of anything else. However, Wolverine fans had to be happy to hear that he was dominant on the offensive end in Michigan’s European summer tour. If he can expand his game to inside the perimeter, it’ll give this team another dynamic scorer and make our predictions of Michigan basketball taking a step back seem foolish.
  4. I’ve never been to a Midnight Madness, but I’ve heard from those who have attended that after the pomp and circumstance, it’s not really anything to write home about. If there was an exception to this rule, I bet it would lie in Bloomington with Hoosier Hysteria. Indiana has the crazy fan base and history to electrify such an event. One thing that may have me watching is the slam dunk contest with their ridiculous athletes. Now, if only Tom Crean can get those athletes to play as one offensive unit, the Hoosiers may be celebrating at end of the season like they’ll be celebrating on Friday.
  5. Finally, it was rumored that Tom Izzo had the opportunity to leave Michigan State this past offseason and coach an NBA team. He ended up staying for many reasons, but perhaps one of them is the job Mark Dantonio is doing with the football team.  As much of a legend Izzo is in East Lansing, the money will always follow football. So it’s probably not a coincident that Michigan State received its largest single donation of $10 million while the football team seems to be on its way to a consecutive conference championship. Basketball will actually get a plurality of that money for capital improvement in the Breslin Center, but there should be no doubt that the money comes in easier when you have a successful football program that excites big donors.
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Big Ten M5: 04.08.14 Edition

Posted by Alex Moscoso on April 8th, 2014

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  1. Another season over, another non-B1G champion crowned. In all honesty, congrats to Connecticut for winning the title. And while it’s a bit disappointing that our conference came up short again (especially with three teams in the Elite Eight), next season looks to be another strong season for the Big Ten. Wisconsin came the closest winning a title as they lost to Kentucky by a point on Saturday night in a game that went to the last second. Traevon Jackson and the rest of the Badgers were disappointed as they fully expected to compete for the national title. We’ll have to see if Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky follow through on their plans to return next year, but if they do, Wisconsin will once again be national title contenders and look to end the Big Ten’s championship drought.
  2. One of Kentucky’s other B1G victims was Michigan, who got bounced out of the Elite Eight by one of many miracle shots by Aaron Harrison this NCAA Tournament. Looking ahead to next year, the Wolverines are eligible for an overseas trip this off-season and are planning to go to Europe for some exhibition games. This means as much as ten days of additional practice to the summer. Michigan may need these additional workouts to build new chemistry if Nik Stauskas declares for the NBA draft and leaves along with senior Jordan Morgan. Bottom line: Beilien will have more time than usual to fine tune his team which should compete for another Big Ten title.
  3. Along with Michigan, Michigan State will need to regroup and get used to an even more revamped roster. The first order of business is to make sure they don’t lose their Hall of Fame coach to the NBA. After that, they’ll have to figure out life without Adreian Payne, Keith Appling, and (most likely) Gary Harris. The Spartans do not have any heralded recruits coming in next year and suffered another recruiting loss yesterday. Michigan native Yante Maten had wanted to join the Spartans from the get-go but decided to join Mark Fox in Georgia as Izzo come too late with a scholarship. With uncertainty surrounding their coach and roster going into the off-season, these are strange and unusual times in East Lansing for a typically steady program.
  4. Continuing with our theme of teams in major transition, Indiana has had as difficult of an off-season as anyone. First, they lose Noah Vonleh to the NBA Draft. Then, a slew of players, including the talented Jeremy Hollowell, decide to transfer leaving the Hoosiers thin and bringing up questions of whether Tom Crean has built a program that players want to be a part of. But seemingly, Crean has blocked out the negativity and concentrated on getting back to the recruiting trail. The Hoosier head coach has had a knack for getting elite talent to Bloomington; this year he brings in talented freshmen like James Blackmon Jr. Crean will need to keep bringing in the talent to Indiana if he is to get the naysayers off his back next season.
  5. Another player whose team awaits their decision about the NBA Draft is A.J. Hammons. Without Hammons, Purdue loses the league’s premier rim protecter and all of the other potential tied to the young big man. As of now, Hammons is projected to be drafted in the second round, so a return to West Lafayette is not out of the question. But Hammons’ decision doesn’t just affect his future, it possibly determines his coach’s fate too. Matt Painter will likely start the season on the hot seat after finishing the last two seasons below 0.500. Without Hammons, Painter’s roster loses a pro-level talent, making it harder to get the program back on track.
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