RTC contributor and bracketologist Zach Hayes will deliver permeating thoughts every week as the season progresses.
This week’s Scribbles column will take on a new twist- which eight teams I’d select to reach the four regional final games in late March. Now, I realize individual matchups within the bracket will determine the fate of these teams, but these are the eight clubs I feel like have an excellent chance of winning three games to reach the Elite 8 regardless of the teams that stand in their way. Some of these teams are the favorites, those expected to reach this level or their season will be labeled a colossal disappointment. The others are mild sleepers that certainly have the capabilities to make a serious run. Without further ado:
1. Kansas- One screaming commentator keeps telling me there’s not one clear favorite heading into March Madness this season. There’s no one team that stands above the rest akin to last year’s North Carolina entering the field as the favorite to hoist the championship trophy on that Monday night in April. This claim continues to baffle me for two reasons: 1) North Carolina was NOT the clear favorite to win the national championship last season. They entered the NCAA Tournament coming off a semifinal loss in the ACC Tournament to Florida State and were chosen as the #3 overall seed in the Dance behind Louisville and Pittsburgh. They were also dealing with question marks around Ty Lawson’s playing status. For a sample, I checked back to the NCAA Tournament pool I conducted last season and North Carolina was picked to win it all less than both Pitt (the most frequent) and Louisville. Even though the Heels featured the most pure talent, let’s put an end to this false claim. I also vehemently disagree that one team doesn’t stand alone this season ahead of the pack. To me, Kansas is the clear cut #1 favorite to win their second title in three years. Bill Self has the second most efficient offense and the third most efficient defense. He’s slowly but surely cut down his rotation and found a perfect balance. Most great teams start with a dominant point guard and center and Self has both of those covered. Even the enigma known as Tyshawn Taylor received a jolt from a surprising start by Self last Saturday and responded. I haven’t even mentioned the scorching hot Xavier Henry. The Jayhawks are an obvious Elite 8 team.
Taylor and Self finally on the same page?
2. Kentucky- If any team can hold a candle to Kansas at this stage of the season, it’s Kentucky. The Wildcats have matched Kansas’ road triumphs in the Big 12 with impressive wins away from Lexington against Florida, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. John Calipari has blended complicated personalities to perfection and found the ideal concoction to finally win a national title. I mentioned Kansas has a tremendous starting point with Collins and Aldrich; they’re actually topped by the inside-outside duo of John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins. Wall has emerged from a mid-season turnover slump to play more like the December John Wall the entire college basketball world fell in love with. He’s absolutely deadly in transition and continues to make clutch plays down the stretch. Cousins will be the single most difficult player to guard in the entire NCAA Tournament, evident by his top-five rank in fouls drawn per 40 minutes. He has guard skills in a 6’11 body and is the most effective rebounder in the nation. The real question is if Kentucky can play a halfcourt game against the likes of Purdue and West Virginia should they run into either team. The Wildcats are much more ordinary than spectacular when they play a game in the 60s and are forced to settle for outside jump shots. Still, this team has the goods and the talent to reach a regional final.
Boilers Continue to Ride JaJuan Johnson. #4 Purdue 60, #12 Ohio State 57. Something had to give tonight, as Matt Painter’s Purdue team came into their visit to central Ohio riding a seven-game winning streak, and Thad Matta’s OSU team was riding their own six-game run (nine if you include only conference games). The game started out similar to the last one, with Purdue running out to a sizable lead, although this time Robbie Hummel didn’t have 29 points at the halftime break. But in stark contrast to their previous encounter, Purdue was able to hang onto their lead after the half in large part due to the dominance of their center JaJuan Johnson and his 24/7/3 assts on 11-17 FGs. It’s been said in this space before, but it needs to be noted again. Since Painter called out his team’s toughness, and in particular that of his big man, JJJ has been the best center in the Big Ten, averaging 20/8/2 blks in his last eight games. When he plays to his capabilities as he has in the last four weeks, Purdue is Final Four-good. When he doesn’t, as was the case in the previous game against the Buckeyes (4/5 on 2-5 FGs), they’re a Sweet Sixteen-level team. Robbie Hummel didn’t even need to score tonight (4/4), which shows how important JJJ is to his team’s offense. The strategy to allow Buckeye star Evan Turner to get his (29/7/5 assts) generally worked, as nobody else for Matta’s team was able to produce (9-27 FGs for the rest of the team). Still, this game wasn’t decided until the last few seconds when Purdue’s Chris Kramer seemingly swooped out of nowhere to block a fast-break attempt by William Buford, leading to a rushed three at the horn for Jon Diebler that bounced off. The Boilermakers with this huge road win move to 10-3 in the Big Ten, a half-game behind Michigan State, while OSU drops to 10-4, a full game behind the Spartans. Both teams will have games with MSU in the next two weeks.
Huge Win in C-bus for Purdue Tonight
Bubbly Games.
Louisville 91, Notre Dame 89 (2OT). This was the game of the night, both in play and relative importance, as both teams came into this one fighting for their bubble lives this evening. The Cards can breathe a little easier after outlasting the plucky Irish behind the best game of sophomore Samardo Samuels’ career (36/6/2 blks in 45 minutes). It was looking ugly for the home team in the first OT, however, as Notre Dame scored the first seven points of the period. Reginald Delk’s huge three and-1 cut the lead back to three and gave UL enough energy to come back and force the second overtime. In that period, ND’s Tim Abromaitis (who otherwise played a great 29/5 game) made a couple of important mistakes that essentially sealed the game for Louisville. The Cards should be safely on the warm side of the bubble after this week, but with games against Georgetown, Marquette and Syracuse looming, you never know with this team. Notre Dame has now lost five of seven, and will need a few upsets down the stretch to get back into the picture.
Penn State 81, Northwestern 70. Simply an incomprehensible loss for a team like Northwestern fighting for its NCAA Tournament life tonight. Penn State came into this game 0-12 in the Big Ten, and left Evanston with its first win in league play (in relatively easy fashion!) against the Wildcats. All five PSU starters scored in double figures and the team shot 56% from the field, but where Northwestern really got killed tonight was on the boards (-17). The Wildcats are now at 6-8 in the Big Ten race, but with a road game coming up at Wisconsin, they’d probably need to win all three remaining conference games and have a good showing in the B10 Tourney to even put themselves back in the NCAA conversation.
Now that we’re starting to get into the meat of the college basketball conference we are starting to get quality games on a regular basis which means that we will be having the return of our regular feature. There isn’t a “blockbuster” game tonight like Texas-Kansas State, but there are 3 games that feature potential NCAA tournament teams matching up against each other that are worth keeping an eye on while you try to catch up on the last two hours of 24.
Northwestern at #25 Ohio State at 7 PM on Big Ten Network: This is clearly a big game for both teams. As has you may have heard (from basically every site covering college basketball) Northwestern has never made the NCAA tournament, but despite the loss of Kevin Coble the Wildcats are firmly on the bubble this year. A victory over Evan Turner and the Buckeyes in Columbus would be a big boost following their upset win at home over a Purdue team that is rapidly falling apart (more on this in a bit). To knock off the Buckeyes in Columbus (where they are undefeated this season), they will need big games from John Shurna (16.8 PPG and 7.1 RPG) and Michael Thompson (14.4 PPG and 4.4 APG with a 2.7 to 1 assist to TO ratio). The key for Thad Matta’s squad will be Evan Turner being Evan Turner (my choice for national POY) and someone else (David Lighty, Jon Diebler, or William Buford–all averaging 13.3 PPG) helping him out so the Wildcats can’t throw double teams at Turner all night. As much as the Northwestern story intrigues us, we suspect that tonight will not help their case as The Villain and the Buckeyes should be able to hold on for the win, but given what happened this weekend a Big Ten upset wouldn’t shock us.
#16 Clemson at #18 Georgia Tech at 7 PM on ESPN2 and ESPN360.com: For the Duke haters out there, this game could be viewed as a match-up of the two teams most likely to challenge the Blue Devils in the ACC this season (we’re almost ready to give up on UNC this season). Paul Hewett‘’s Yellow Jackets have been maddeningly inconsistent alternating between wins against Duke and UNC and losses against Georgia and Virginia. Meanwhile, Oliver Purnell’s Tigers have started off with their customary impressive early season record with their only losses coming against Duke, Texas A&M, and Illinois with a majority of their wins coming against a bunch of cupcakes in non-conference play (ok, the Xavier win was nice) and they just blew out UNC in Littlejohn Coliseum. The key to this game will be the match-up on the inside with Trevor Booker (15.4 PPG and 8.3 RPG) going up against Gani Lawal (15.2 PPG and 9.2 RPG) and Derrick Favors (11.5 PPG and 8.6 RPG). Despite the Yellow Jackets’ inconsistency lately, we’re going to go with the homecourt and the fact that we never trust Clemson in big games here.
#15 Purdue at Illinois at 9 PM on ESPN and ESPN360.com: The big question here is how the Boilermakers will respond to Matt Painter calling out the entire team except for Robbie Hummel and E’Twaun Moore after their three-game losing streak. The key for Illinois will be if they can get Demetri McCamey going against Chris Kramer. They will probably rely on their running him through a bunch of screen in their motion offense (ESPN Insider required) to get Kramer off of him. On the other side of the ball, Purdue needs JaJuan Johnson to start playing like the All-Big Ten player that he is and not the guy who scored 17 points combined in their last three games (all losses). If Purdue plays the way they did early in the season, they are clearly capable of pulling off the road win. Given the experience on the Boilermakers team, we’re going to go with them bouncing back on the road against Bruce Weber and the Illini.
Backdoor Cuts is a college basketball discussion between RTC correspondents Dave Zeitlin, Steve Moore and Mike Walsh. This week the disgruntled fans each pick a new team to root for — and start a friendly competition in the process.
DAVE ZEITLIN: So I know what I want for Chanukah (or, as you guys like to call it, Weird Christmas). I’ve decided I want a new college basketball team to root for.
Now, don’t get me wrong, Penn will always be my No. 1 team and I know better days lie ahead. But let’s be honest: the only thing my Quakers are competing for this year is whether or not they can become the worst team in Division I (if they aren’t already). Combine this with the fact that my favorite baseball team is the Mets (don’t say anything, Steve), my favorite football team (the Giants) just gave up approximately 3,500 points in one game (seriously, Steve, be quiet) and neither of my fantasy football teams made the playoffs…and I forget where that sentence was going because I just started crying. Please, Fake Santa of Chanukah, give me a winning team to root for this holiday season. Just one.
Here’s my own criteria for picking a new team: I want the school to be relatively close — as in, driving distance from my home in Philadelphia (sorry, most of the country). Obviously, the team can’t be any kind of rival of Penn’s (as much as I like Fran Dunphy at Temple). It can’t be a perennial favorite to win a national championship (that’s no fun) but it also can’t be a team that has no shot of winning it all (rooting for one-mid major is enough). And even though I’ve followed this conference most of my life, it can’t be any team from the Big East. (Before going to Penn, I was a big Syracuse fan; I’d feel like an abusive boyfriend going back to them now, but I’d feel like even more of a jerk rooting for one of their rivals.)
So where that does that leave me? Based on my complex formula, I think I have to go with a middle-of-the-pack ACC school. And after careful consideration, I realize there’s only one that makes sense. And the winner is…drumroll please…I don’t hear a drumroll…seriously, give me a drumroll…fine, I guess when you’re writing by yourself and there are no drummers nearby, you’re just not going to get one…Maryland!
Fear the Zeitlin!
I’ll explain more about why I chose the Terps later. But, first, I want to hear who you guys would pick, considering you both root for teams that aren’t making the Big Dance. We can even make this a competition throughout the season. A Chanukah/Christmas competition. Or something.
STEVE MOORE: You may have gotten one of your Weird Christmas wishes when your boy Glen Miller got fired today. Maybe Penn can adopt the Princeton offense (too soon?).
We are back with our first Boom Goes The Dynamite of the season (not counting our coverage of ESPN’s 24 Hours of Hoops Marathon). For those of you who are not familiar with this feature, we will be covering all of the important college basketball being played today in a live blog. So for those of you who love college basketball, we invite you to spend part (or all) of the day with us. If you’re still getting back into college basketball after spending the fall following a sport that does not let an undefeated team play for a title, here is a quick rundown of the major games that we will be following throughout the day:
Noon: #4 Kentucky at Indiana on CBS
Noon: #15 Ohio State at #20 Butler on ESPN and RTC Live
2 PM: #13 Georgetown vs. #16 Washington on FSN and RTC Live
2 PM: La Salle at #1 Kansas on ESPN
4:30 PM: Mississippi State vs. UCLA on FSN and RTC Live
5 PM: Marquette at #23 Wisconsin on ESPN2
6 PM: New Mexico vs. #18 Texas A&M on Fox Sports Southwest
7 PM: Kansas State vs. #17 UNLV on ESPN Full Court
9 PM: #5 Purdue at Alabama on ESPN2
Noon: And we’re live. Like we noted earlier there are 2 big games to watch in this TV session. We’re expecting Kentucky to destroy Indiana, but Ohio State-Butler promises to be much more interesting especially with the absence of Evan Turner.
12:10 PM: Agree with Greg Anthony. DeMarcus Cousins is the key for Kentucky’s title hopes this season. John Wall and Patrick Patterson are almost a given. If Cousins can play consistently (and the Wildcats play a little D), they have a great shot at a NCAA title.
12:12 PM: Phenomenal start for Indiana. Tom Crean could not have asked for anything more than a 12-4 start. Is it possible that Kentucky could have overlooked Indiana. I know the Hoosiers are down, but you have to get up for a trip to Bloomington, right?
12:15 PM: For those who caught that discussion about the relative scoring ability of Matt Howard and Jay Bilas. Here are Jay’s numbers from his time at Duke.
12:20 PM: Kentucky looks really sloppy right now. Have the Wildcats been listening to all the hype?
12:25 PM: Great start for Butler. Up 24-14 midway through the 1st half. William Buford answers a bucket but misses the free throw. Wow. That’s a ridiculous class for Ohio State, but like Bilas mentions how long will they stay there. Gordon Hayward almost converts a ridiculous alley-oop from Shelvin Mack.
12:30 PM: Wow. Bilas thinks Northwestern is still a NCAA Tournament team even without Kevin Coble. I’m not so sure about that. I guess there is a lot of Big 10/11 basketball to be played.
12:32 PM: And Kentucky has taken the lead at 21-19 thanks to a 12-2 run. It figured it would only be a matter of time before they came back, but this is pretty quick. The question is whether the Hoosiers can respond and keep this game tight. If they keep it within 10 at half, the crowd should still be into it.
12:35 PM: Did they just say that Wall has a 3.8 GPA? Has Kentucky’s semester already ended or is that his high school GPA? I have heard it was closer to 2.6 in high school. Is this another Tim Tebow situation?
Each week RTC will posit a That’s Debatable question or topic that is relevant to the world of college basketball. Sometimes whimsical, sometimes serious, we’ll post the thoughts of our core editing crew (in 200 words or less), but we’ll also be expanding to include our contributors and correspondents as appropriate throughout the season. We also invite you, the readers, to join us as we mull over some of the questions facing the game today. Feel free to send us your takes and/or leave them in the comments below.
This Week’s Topic:Thanksgiving week is upon us, and families everywhere around the country will come together to give thanks for the numerous people and things important to them. What will some of the nation’s top college basketball coaches give thanks for during this week of reflection and thought?
nvr1983 – editor/contributor, RTC
One of the people who should be thankful this Thanksgiving is Thad Matta. When last season ended two of his players were contemplating leaving school early to go to the NBA: B.J. Mullens and Evan Turner. While Mullens was the more highly rated recruit, he hadn’t quite lived up to those expectations. Although Turner was no slouch in high school (he was a 4-star recruit), he didn’t come to Columbus with the same expectations. By the end of last season, both players we predicted to be mid- to late-first round picks. As you all know Mullens decided to leave school early and ended up being selected #24 overall by the Mavericks before being traded to the Thunder where he is averaging 3 PPG and 1 RPG in 15.8 MPG. Turner decided to stay in Columbus for at least one more season and is the early favorite for National Player of the Year after starting the season averaging 21.8 PPG (on 59% FG), 14.8 RPG, 6 APG, and 1.8 SPG for the Buckeyes. If Mullens had stayed and Turner had left OSU wouldn’t be a top 25 team, but because the roles were reversed they could be a top 10 team.
rtmsf – editor/contributor, RTC
While many coaches across the land will give thanks this week for a top recruit or a big win or still having a paying job, BYU coach Dave Rose will be thankful that he’s still around to coach his team. You see, on June 17 of last summer, Rose was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, and as far as pancreatic cancers go, his wasn’t the worst kind, but seeing those two words together (“pancreatic” and “cancer”) is never a good thing. He had emergency surgery the very next day to remove part of his spleen and pancreas, and after a quick recovery, he now sits as the head coach of a strong 3-0 team with aspirations to win the Mountain West and make some noise in this year’s NCAA Tournament. Oh, and did I mention that all tests show that he is completely cancer-free? BYU feels so highly about Rose that the school gave him a 5-year extension through the 2014 season, showing their faith in both his coaching acumen as well as his health. There’s no greater gift than the one of life, and Rose is undoubtedly living each day as if it were his last — now that’s something to be thankful for!
Addition by Subtraction?Syracuse 87, North Carolina 71. We all knew that Roy Williams’ Carolina team was likely to take a bit of a step back this season after losing four players (Hansbrough, Ellington, Lawson, Green) to the NBA Draft, and we expected the same from Syracuse after losing the core (Flynn, Harris, Devendorf) of its Sweet Sixteen squad. But is it possible that Syracuse, with the addition of multi-dimensional forward Wesley Johnson and the natural progression of players such as Andy Rautins, Arinze Onuaku, Rick Jackson and Scoop Jardine, are actually better than they were in 2008-09? Forget the loss to Le Moyne in the preseason — when the games have actually counted, they’ve mauled every opponent they’ve faced by an average of 27.5 pts. Albany and Robert Morris, sure — but highly-ranked California by 22 and North Carolina by 16? Not so much. As Roy Williams put it after the game, Syracuse “beat the dickens out of us,” and he wasn’t exaggerating. The Orange broke out of a 39-37 deficit at halftime with a ridiculous 22-1 run that had Carolina looking as befuddled as they’ve been in what seems like a long time (don’t let anyone tell you that it’s actually been that long, though – the 2008 Final Four game against Kansas looked similar for long stretches). The key to that stretch of play was that North Carolina all of a sudden looked much like the young, inexperienced team that they are. Williams made sure to stress that youth isn’t an excuse, but during the blitzkrieg by SU it was clear that many of the Heels were uncertain how to stem the tide, incapable at this point in their development of settling their nerves with several bad decisions on both ends of the court. At the end of the night, it was obvious that the better team (with the best player, Johnson) won the game. We have to be careful to crown anyone with anything this early in the season, but there’s no doubt that Syracuse is much further along than UNC, and we found ourselves wondering (along with Ray Floriani) if this year’s version of the Orange might actually be better off with the talented trio of Flynn, Harris and Devendorf out of the picture. Sometimes those players, particularly Harris and Devendorf, could cause more problems than they solved for Jim Boeheim. Is it possible that the group he has now — last year’s backups + Johnson (transfer) and Jardine (redshirt) — have better team chemistry and trust for each other, resulting in wonderfully efficient execution on both ends? Boeheim would never admit to it, but there could be something to this.
Can We Send Cal Home 0-3? Ohio State 76, California 70. Memo to Pac-10 teams. Don’t bother sending your schools back east unless they plan on actually showing up for the games. For the second consecutive night, Mike Montgomery’s California team got completely outclassed by a bigger, more athletic foe that simply imposed its will on the Bears in the first half, rendering the second stanza as (mostly) garbage time. Ohio State was much better tonight than they were last night, hitting five threes in the first half over the much shorter Bears, and generally controlling the game from start to finish. Dallas Lauderdale in particular tortured the Cal interior players, getting credited for seven blocks and generally intimidating any Cal player of consequence who entered his lane. Evan Turner was masterful as usual, notching another near-triple double of 26/14/6 assts on 9-14 FG. More importantly for Thad Matta, Turner cut down his turnover total to a more reasonable (yet high) four, quite a few less than his ten last evening against UNC. Jerome Randle was once again the only bright spot for Cal, as he dropped 26/3 assts in what was clearly a frustrating couple of games for the competitive guard. The loss of Theo Robertson for these last two games with a stress reaction was undoubtedly a tough blow, but we’re not convinced that Cal would have beaten either Syracuse or Ohio State even with Jason Kidd back on campus. Their problems with the interior players are just too damning, and there doesn’t appear to be any easy solution. So what have we learned from this? First, if Cal is indeed the best team in the Pac-10, then there won’t be a single Pac-10 team beyond the second round in March (again), and secondly, if there’s a better player than Ohio State’s Evan Turner (22/15/6 assts), he’d better start putting up some ridiculous games soon or the NPOY race will be over before it gets started.
Carolina Hangs On. North Carolina 77, Ohio State 73. The marquee matchup of the evening featured Roy’s defending national champs taking on Ohio State and early NPOY candidate Evan Turner in Madison Square Garden. RTC Live was a bust due to MSG’s terrible internet connectivity, but we were still able to witness the game and what we saw was a team in North Carolina that could look utterly brilliant on one possession and really disjointed on the next. The good news for the Heels is that their defense and length, particularly inside, made the Buckeye look worse — as in, totally incompetent — for the majority of the game. Up until four minutes remaining, the game had settled into the comfortable 12-18 point lead range for Carolina. Every time that OSU threatened, UNC would get a key steal or three to stem the tide (Will Graves, with his 14/5, was particulary effective with this). Then OSU seemed to instantaneously find its mojo: the threes that had bricked and caromed off the rim and glass all night long suddenly starting finding their mark. Lighty with a three, Buford with another, Lighty again and Diebler once more along with some forays to the rim by Evan Turner, and the comfort zone that Carolina had shrunk to a very uncomfortable two points with fifteen seconds remaining. The general sense in the building, echoed by both coaches after the game, was that if Ohio State had just been able to find the mark a little better in the first half (29% FG, 10% 3FG, 50% FT), they’d have been right there all along. Problem is that we’re not buying it. In our view, the Buckeyes only started playing well and hitting shots when the pressure was essentially off and Carolina’s defense relaxed. Say what you want about Roy Williams’ penchant for offense, but this Carolina team has the potential to be devastating defensively, whereas on offense they might be a little more suspect (Graves & Ginyard are nice players, but let’s not kid ourselves here). OSU was clearly hurt by turnovers and Turner(over) was the worst offender by far with a triple-double the wrong way — 23/11/10 TOs, but if UNC realizes that its strength may actually lay on the end where they don’t have the basketball, this UNC team could in fact be very dangerous as a Final Four team come March.
Cal Exposed by Syracuse Size. Syracuse 95, California 73. The interesting contrast in styles simply exposed Cal for what they are — a nice team that’s reliant on great guardplay to win games. We mentioned this during the live-blog briefly, but Cal’s guards accounted for 51 of the team’s 73 points, and the disparity was even worse than that prior to garbage time. Contrastingly, Syracuse’s bigs scored 54 of the Orange’s 95 points, which means that the guards chipped in 41, resulting in a balanced distribution of points that most good teams have. Cal just isn’t going to be able to battle teams with athletic post players like Rick Jackson (8/6) and Wesley Johnson (17/11). We noticed in the first half that the Cal guards, particularly Randle, seemed way too willing to step out another 2-4 feet behind the three-point line to fire away, and this is a good example of what the long Syracuse zone does to players. It makes them think that they have an easy open shot, but the truth is that the shot the player is getting is just a smidge farther outside his normal range, and you end up with bricks all over the joint. Case in point: Cal ended the night at 30% from deep (6-20), and 5 of those came from Randle (25/4/4 assts). Patrick Christopher continues to struggle when the lights are on, as he went 6-20 from the field (0-7 from deep) and only finished with 12 points. We’d like to be able to say that Cal will improve, but with a team of seniors, it’s probable that they’re as good as they’re going to get this year. Syracuse, on the other hand, could be scary good if they continue to get strong and efficient play from Johnson and Jackson inside as well as Andy Rautins (8/4) and Scoop Jardine (22/6/6 assts) on the perimeter. It’ll be very intriguing to see how North Carolina handles the Syracuse zone tomorrow night, as the Orange will be able to throw more size at the UNC players than what Ohio State was able to do tonight.
Puerto Rico Tipoff.
Nova dodges upset bid. #6 Villanova 69, George Mason 68. The game of the day didn’t take place blocks from Times Square Thursday. Instead, Puerto Rico was home to another top-ten team dodging the proverbial upset bullet, this time from the fighting George Mason Patriots coached by Jim Larranaga. And it was touted freshman Isiah Armwood who will forever live in Nova lore (okay that’s a bit of an exaggeration) with his stunning three-pointer to give the Wildcats a lead with 13 seconds to go on his only shot attempt of the contest. Coach Jay Wright even admitted after the game that Armwood was the last option on the floor to take that shot as the 6′7 freshman isn’t exactly renowned for his outside touch. Villanova never led until the second half and actually trailed by four in the final minute before a clutch Maalik Wayns three (another frosh) and a hair-pulling Mason turnover, along with missed FTs, opened the door for a miracle. Corey Fisher (1-12 FG but 14-18 FT) and Scottie Reynolds (8 turnovers) both looked shaky. Regardless, it’s a good opportunity for Jay Wright to show his team they can be beaten on any night while notching one in the win column. Villanova will be tested again today against a really good Dayton team. Worth noting: freshman Mouphtaou Yarou will miss the tournament with a viral infection leaving Wright thin up front.
Wednesday, November 11th was the first day of basketball’s early signing period for high school seniors, and several noteworthy prospects signed on the dotted line throughout the day. A recap (all rankings from the ESPN 100):
The biggest story came out of Columbus, Ohio. Thad Matta is flexing right now, as he brought in four players in the top 100, including two players in most recruiting analysts’ top 10-12; Jared Sullinger, an almost unanimous #2 in this year’s whole senior class (pictured above), and #12 DeShaun Thomas, a smooth 6′7 three-position threat. Also signing with the Buckeyes were top-60 players Jordan Sibert and Aaron Craft, so you can see why OSU boasts the best recruiting class for 2010 to this point.
Perry Jones, considered the third-ranked prospect in the current senior class, signed with Baylor today, thus continuing Scott Drew’s highly commendable rebuilding of that program. Jones verbally committed back in 2007 but today’s signing made it official. The 6′10 Jones has the skill set to play the 3, 4, or 5 at the collegiate level.
Other signing notes: Marquette inked a couple of top-100 recruits in the excellently-named 6′3 shooting guard Vander Blue and 6′6 wing Jamail Jones. A couple of former NBA stars saw their sons sign letters; Shawn Kemp, Jr. (6′9, 215) signed with Auburn, while Tim Hardaway, Jr. (6′5, 185) pledged his support to Michigan.
Two of the biggest names in the class of 2010 also revealed their plans to announce soon. Harrison Barnes (dunking above) is touted as possibly the best player in the class, and says that he’ll announce this Friday at 4 P.M. ET. The leaders for his services are said to be Duke, North Carolina, Kansas, and Oklahoma. Top ten recruit Tobias Harris, according to his father, will not sign a letter of intent this week, but will announce his college choice next week; Maryland, Louisville, Georgia Tech, and West Virginia are listed as the top possibilities for the 6′8 combo-forward.
Welcome back to RTC’s THIRD season covering college basketball with one of our old standbys, the nightly After the Buzzer feature. If you’re new here, the purpose of these nightly updates is to go a little deeper than game recaps. We’ll talk about the key games and storylines of each night of the regular season so that you can join the watercooler crew with some knowledge to throw around the next morning. Tonight we got the season underway with four opening round subregional games in the 2kSports Coaches vs. Cancer Classic. None of the four favorites were every seriously threatened, but there were quite a few good storylines tonight.
Isiah’s debut. #4 North Carolina 88, Florida International 72. For a team picked last in their Sun Belt division and has just eight scholarship players on its roster, Isiah Thomas had his Florida International Golden Panthers putting up a respectable fight against the top-five Tar Heels in his much-anticipated coaching debut. The bright spots for the powder blues in the first post-Tyler Hansbrough era contest: Deon Thompson appears to be in for a fine year in the post, totaling 20 points and 10 boards on 7/11 FG while frontcourt mate Ed Davis used a slew of putbacks and easy buckets to complete his own double-double: 13/11/4 blks on 5/8 FG. The other big question mark heading into the season was whether Larry Drew could provide steady point guard play for UNC, and the sophomore put in a solid performance with 6/2 A:TO in 21 minutes, including a Lawson-esque coast-to-coast layup in the first half and a few pretty dishes to Thompson and John Henson for jams. The bad news: Even with the incredible turnover and rustiness of a season opener, Roy Williams cannot be pleased with a 26-turnover performance from his team against a Sun Belt foe (the most in any game coached by Williams at UNC), especially backup point guard Dexter Strickland’s five turnovers in 11 minutes. Also worth noting is Williams opting to go with a more experienced starting five with Thompson, Drew, Davis, Marcus Ginyard and William Graves getting the nod and Henson, Strickland, Tyler Zeller, Leslie McDonald and the Wear twins coming off the pine. This group is absurdly deep up front and, due to the high-impact departures, shouldn’t be expected to look like a world-beater in early November. They don’t.
Boeheim gets win #800. #25 Syracuse 75, Albany 43. Coming off their embarrassing defeat in an exhibition contest at the hands of D2 Le Moyne, Syracuse needed to come out in their first actual game of the 2009-10 season and make a statement. Their 2-3 zone defense confused the Albany Great Danes all night and was the primary factor in garnering a 75-43 victory for Jim Boeheim’s 800th win, putting him on an esteemed list with only two other active coaches — Mike Krzyzewski and Jim Calhoun. Syracuse’s defense and superb athleticism forced Albany into 32 turnovers and only 27% shooting in a primarily ugly game that lacked much flow. Syracuse shot just 2/17 from outside themselves including a clunker from three-point specialist Andy Rautins (0/6, 0/4 3pt) who left the game midway through the 2nd half with a sprained ankle (3am update: doesn’t sound too serious, but he was wearing a walking boot after the game). The good: Scoop Jardine coupled a productive preseason into another stellar performance at the point tonight, totaling 12 points and 4 assists on 5/7 shooting with just one turnover while his main competition, Brandon Triche, had some moments but mainly struggled with six turnovers. Syracuse looks extremely athletic with Wes Johnson (who features a sick one-handed posterization on an unsuspecting Great Dane) around the perimeter and Rick Jackson swatting shots down low.
Josh & Mike from Big Ten Geeks are the RTC correspondents for the Big Ten Conference.
The Season That Was
Politicians often talk about “Two Americas” – there’s the super-rich, lighting Cuban cigars with $100 bills, and then there’s the rest of us. Well, this year, there were “Three Big Tens.” First, there was Michigan State, who won the conference title in a walk by four games. That’s the largest margin in a very long time (over 10 years). And just like this little credit crisis hasn’t forced Warren Buffett to fly coach [Ed. Note: Having read about Warren, he might fly coach anyways.], Raymar Morgan’s long bout with pneumonia didn’t slow down the Spartans one bit. We predicted Michigan State to win, we just didn’t know it would be this easy.
Then there’s the middle, which was filled with parity. Second place through ninth place was separated by 3 games. Call it the Big Ten’s middle class. Purdue didn’t develop into the team everyone thought they would. Sure, Robbie Hummel’s extended absence hurt, but it was really the big steps back taken by E’Twuan Moore and Keaton Grant that made the biggest difference. Illinois actually overachieved this season, after last year’s debacle. The truth is that the Illini weren’t that bad last year, but suffered a lot of close losses. A big turnaround was to be expected. But to go from 16 wins to 23 (and counting) without adding a single player of significance was beyond optimistic. That’s exactly what Bruce Weber’s team did though. Wisconsin will see their streak of 30-win seasons come to an end this year, and despite what you might read or hear about this team, it was the defense that let them down. In fact, the Badgers sported the league’s best offense on a per possession basis. But without twin towers Brian Butch and Greg Steimsma, opponents shot much better from inside the arc.
Penn State continued its happy-go-lucky ways, going 10-8 in conference play despite being outscored (handily) by its opponents. But good for the Nittany Lions, it’s wins that punch Dance tickets, not scoring margins. Ohio State might have had the most talent in the league, but finished right in the middle of the pack. We said that before the season started that Ohio State would be hard-pressed to improve on last year’s performance. We were right – Thad Matta is finding out that landing All American Recruits isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. Speaking of attrition, Northwestern had virtually none, and that went a long, long way into fueling their best post-war season. The Wildcats will come up short for landing an NCAA Tourney bid unless they win the conference tournament, but that shouldn’t diminish the job Bill Carmody’s done. Another turnaround was present in Ann Arbor, where John Beilein has Michigan on the brink of their first NCAA Tournament appearance in over 10 years. The Wolverines have looked like giant killers that took down Duke, UCLA, and nearly UConn; but this is also the same team that was outscored by opponents in conference play. They need to find that early-season magic for the stretch run. Minnesota has been somewhat of an oddball team as well this year in that this is the worst field goal shooting team in the conference, but they’re also tied for the best free throw shooting team in the conference. Clearly they have the talent to score more, but it just hasn’t happened.
Today is going to be a little different than our typical Boom Goes the Dynamite posts based on the fact that rtmsf is on vacation and I will be in-and-out of the house throughout the day. It looks like there are only 3 games worth focusing on today (Louisville at Syracuse, Michigan State at Ohio State, and Pittsburgh at West Virginia) and given our situation, that is what I will be doing.
Noon: Thanks to ESPN’s greediness (putting it on Full Court) and the non-functional ESPN360 log-in system, I’ll be bringing you the Louisville-Syracuse game via GameCast. If any of you are getting the game, let us know what is going on in the comment section.
1:00 PM: It looks like we have two close games at the half. One was expected (Louisville at Syracuse), but the other was not (Minnesota at Indiana). In the first game, which Louisville leads 38-33 at intermission, the Cardinals have led the entire game (biggest lead at 30-20). Terrence Williams (11 points and 5 rebounds) and Earl Clark (9 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists) are leading the Cardinals, but Samardo Samuels has had a rough start (0 points on 0/4 FG with 2 fouls ). Eric Devendorf (10 points and 3 assists) has kept the Orangemen in the game. In the other game, Minnesota does not appear to be out of its current funk (2-game losing streak). Indiana actually had a 8-point lead in the first half before the Gophers rallied back to take a 31-30 lead at half. The Hooisers will need to keep up the hot shooting from 3 (6/9 in the first half from beyond the arc) if they want to pull of the big upset.
1:15 PM: The Orangemen have cut the lead to 2 off a Devendorf 3. TV timeout with 15:41 left. Looks like a great game that approximately ~10% of college basketball fans have access to. Congrats to ESPN and the NCAA. Way to promote college basketball.
1:50 PM: It looks like we have a pair of great finishes and I’m stuck waiting for GameCast to refresh.
1:55 PM: ESPN News is giving a live look-in. Final minute on now. I’d recommend checking it out.
1:57 PM: Nice. ESPN.com is already calling the game even though I can clearly see that it is still going on thanks to the ESPN News look-in.
ESPN calling the game before it was done
2:00 PM: Well Louisville won anyways. Final score was 67-57 not 63-57 (see above).
2:03 PM: Minnesota is barely hanging on (64-62 with 0:29 left). Big game from Ralph Sampson III (13 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 blocks).
2:10 PM: Minnesota hangs on to win the game 67-63. The Gophers will need to step it up if they want a NCAA bid this year.
2:30 PM: Only notable game right now is Georgetown at Seton Hall. The game is tied at 14. Georgetown will probably drop quite a bit in the new poll on Monday. They might need to win this on the road to stay in the top 25. My updates will be infrequent over the next hour or two due to a prior commitment. I’ll update this when necessary. Keep the comments coming.
5:30 PM: And I’m back. . .This is what happens when rtmsf leaves me out to dry. Here’s a quick recap of what happened while I was away: Georgetown will be out of the top 25 on Monday after losing at Seton Hall. The Hoyas were held to their worst shooting day of the season (32.7% FG and 13.6% 3pt). I’m starting to believe more in my earlier statement that there are only 2-3 really good/great teams in the Big East and a bunch of good teams that are inconsistent. Meanwhile, there’s a good game going on in Columbus (Michigan State is leading Ohio State, 64-56 with 4:23 left). I’ll be following it on CBS.
5:35 PM: Thad Matta picks up a stupid technical with the Buckeyes down by 11 with 2:27 left. Good job maintaining your composure there Coach.
5:50 PM: Big game by Durrell Summers (26 points) is enough to get the Spartans a nice road win.
6:00 PM: It looks like Pittsburgh is pulling away from West Virginia. The Mountaineers hung tough for the first 25 minutes before Jamie Dixon’s team began to open up a lead. Bob Huggins has gotten big games out of Da’Sean Butler and Alex Ruoff, but Pittsburgh superior depth is coming into play with 4 players in double figures.
6:10 PM: Pittsburgh hangs on for a 79-67 win. Nothing remotely interesting on until Georgia Tech at Clemson at 7:45 PM. If that game is worth watching, I will be posting again so check back then.
9:00 PM: Clemson is only up 37-34 on Georgia Tech at half. Oliver Purnell needs Trevor Booker (5 points on 0/3 FG in the first half) to step up if he doesn’t want to start another ACC freefall this year.
9:10 PM: Is this a different Clemson team? I know they still can’t win in Chapel Hill, but they’re actually showing some toughness tonight and have opened up a 49-37 lead with 16 minutes left in the game.
10:00 PM: Well it looks like Clemson has avoided their annual ACC collapse for at least one more game. Terrence Oglesby’s big night from the outside (5/13 from 3) and Trevor Booker’s double-double (11 points and 11 rebounds) were enough to hold off the Yellow Jackets.
In light of the weak set of games this week, we’re bringing you a midweek (Tuesday-Thursday) Set Your Tivos before the weekend edition (Friday night’s games are awful so go out and do something that night).
Tuesday (01.20.09) - Ohio State at #24 Illinois, 7 PM on ESPN and ESPN360.com: Illinois has been one of the most surprising teams in the first half of the college basketball season. Bruce Weber’s team came into the season without a single vote in either major poll and now they sit in the top 25. Although they are only 3-2 in the Big Ten this year, the Fighting Illini have shown everyone that they will contend for the conference title this year with their performance in the early season. All three of their losses this year have been against respectable competition: Clemson (by 2 points), at Michigan (avenged last week), and at Michigan State (by 6). On the other hand, Ohio State has been disappointing since the loss of David Lighty and has went 6-3 since his injury after starting 7-0 including a win over Notre Dame.
Illinois’s strength this year has been their balanced scoring attack with 4 players averaging between 11.3 and 11.8 PPG. They are led by Dmeteri McCamey (11.8 PPG and 4.9 APG) at the point and Mike Davis (11.3 PPG and 7.3 RPG) on the inside. They are a potential Sweet 16 team if Kentucky transfer Alex Legion can become more consistent and play like he did against Michigan State (15 points on 6/13 FG).
The key to this game will be Weber’s ability to limit Evan Turner, who is averaging 15.9 PPG and 7.0 RPG this season. While Thad Matta has two other players (Jon Diebler and William Buford) who average double figures along with the highly touted B.J. Mullens, Turner is the most consistent scorer that Matta has. If Weber can get Davis to slow down Turner, Illinois should be able to pull this one out.
Wednesday (01.21.09) - #21 Villanova at #3 UConn, 7 PM on ESPN and ESPN360.com: Yet another ridiculous Big East battle. Even though I am fairly certain that UConn and Pittsburgh are the best teams in the conference (unless Louisville keeps playing at this level), I have a feeling that the regular season title will be determined by which team wins its other conference games. Quite frankly (sorry Stephen A.), Villanova shouldn’t beat UConn in Storrs if the Huskies play up to their potential.
Calhoun’s talented, but enigmatic backcourt of A.J. Price, Jerome Dyson, and Kemba Walker will have to contend with Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher, and Corey Stokes. The match-up is pretty close, but I’d give the edge to the Huskies here unless Reynolds goes off. On the inside, the Huskies also have the advantage, but will need to contain Dante Cunningham, who comes in averaging 17.4 PPG and 7.4 RPG. If they can prevent him from having a monster game, UConn will have a decided edge on the inside. One of Jim Calhoun’s on-going challenges will be getting Stanley Robinson to play consistently after his unusual sabatical. If Calhoun can get consistent play out of Robinson to go along with the surprisingly consistent Hasheem Thabeet (except for the Gonzaga game) and the explosive slasher Jeff Adrien, he might just find himself in Detroit in April.
- #9 Clemson at #6 UNC, 9 PM on ESPN and ESPN360.com: Will Clemson ever win a game at Chapel Hill? The Tigers’ losing streak in Chapel Hill currently stands at a NCAA record 53 games dating back to their first visit there on January 15, 1926. After Saturday’s loss to current #1 Wake Forest, Clemson will be looking to rebound and avoid their annual ACC slide. Unfortunately for Clemson, UNC is probably stronger than them at every position and has the previously mentioned home court edge.
Oliver Purnell will also need solid play out of his 9-deep rotation (all averaging over 13.2 MPG), which is led by Trevor Booker and K.C. Rivers. Booker will likely be matched up against reigning POY Tyler Hansbrough. It will be a tough match-up for Booker and even matching Hansbrough will likely mean a 54th consecutive loss for Tigers at Chapel Hill. Clemson’s best hope is to use their depth and pressure defense to rattle Ty Lawson, who has been playing well this year except for the Tar Heels two losses (9 assists and 8 TOs in those games).
Roy Williams will need to focus on keeping his stars out of foul trouble because the Tigers are one of the few teams in the country that can match UNC’s depth although not necessarily with the same quality that the Tar Heels have. Even though this is a conference match-up against a top 10 team UNC should be able to handle the Tigers relatively easily particularly if Wayne Ellington continues his hot shooting from the 2nd half of the Miami game.
Thursday (01.22.09) - West Virginia at No. 14 Georgetown, 7 PMon ESPN and ESPN360.com: After losing consecutive games to UConn and Marquette, the Mountaineers feasted on a break in their schedule with back-to-back wins over Marshall and USF. Unfortunately for Bob Huggins, if West Virginia wants to make the NCAA tournament they will have to start stealing a few wins against the upper tier teams in the conference. On the other sideline, John Thompson III will need to focus on his team’s energy level after a hard-fought win against Syracuse and a tough loss at Duke on Saturday.
This game will likely come down to whether Huggins can find somebody inside to battle Greg Monroe and DaJuan Summers. The Mountaineers match-up well on the outside with Alex Ruoff and Darryl Bryant going up against Austin Freeman and Chris Wright, but Da’Sean Butler will have his hands full against Monroe and Summers assuming Monroe can stay out of foul trouble and the “fans behind the bench” keep quiet. I expect the Hoyas to pull away in this one midway through the second half after struggling to find their focus in the first half.
- #18 Purdue at #20 Minnesota, 7 PM on ESPN2 and ESPN360.com: This one looks like it will be a battle of teams fighting for a #2 seed in the Big Ten tournament (the Spartans look like a strong #1 in the conference). The Boilermakers have rebounded well from an 0-2 start in the Big Ten and have won 3 straight. Matt Painter’s club relies on its own Big Three (sorry Boston fans) of E’Twaun Moore, Robbie Hummel, and JaJuan Johnson. If Hummel is back to 100%, they are one of the better trios in the Big Ten. Purdue’s problem is the big drop-off after that as their 4th leading scorer averages 8.0 PPG (respectable) on 34.1% FG (not so respectable).
Tubby Smith will be looking for his club to bounce back after a bad loss at Northwestern on Sunday. Lawrence Westbrook is the unquestioned star of this team, but we’re more curious about Ralph Sampson III (yes, that’s his son). I’m expecting this one to be a hard-fought game, but I think Purdue will be able to pull this one out against the Gophers, who I believe may be getting too much credit by the media for their win against the suddenly resurgent Louisville Cardinals earlier in the year.
I’ll be honest with you. This doesn’t even come close to Super Saturday from a couple weekends ago, but it’s certainly better than watching all the specials about how your retirement account fell apart this year or some mediocre college football teams play in a meaningless bowl games that nobody has ever heard of. It certainly should be enough to distract Big Ten fans away from their teams getting blown out in the bowl games. In any event it will get the rest of you ready for Dick Clark at midnight. . .
Credit: http://www.museum.tv/
Noon ET
- #15 Michigan State at #21 Minnesota on the Big Ten Network: Both teams are riding high after impressive victories on Super Saturday. The Spartans (9-2) have rebounded from a slow start including a blowout loss to UNC (doesn’t seem that bad any more. . .ok losing by 35 in a virtual home game is really bad) to reel off 5 straight wins including a win against Texas on the 20th. Meanwhile, Minnesota (12-0) has been playing consistently good basketball–quality wins over Virginia and an overrated Louisville team–all year despite coming into the season with modest expectations from the media. While the Spartans are more of a known quantity with a number of marquee players, the Gophers are more of an unknown as their soft early season schedule (only Louisville was a RPI top 100) is the reason they are 12-0 yet only ranked #21 in the country. The key to this game will likely be Spartan sophomore PG Kalin Lucas who comes into the game boasting a better than 6.5:1 assist to turnover ratio. If he continues to play at that level, Tubby Smith will have a tough time matching Tom Izzo and the Spartans.
2 PM ET
- #3 Pittsburgh at Rutgers on ESPN Full Court and ESPN360.com: The Panthers are heavy favorites in this game, but we’ll be more interested in how the Scarlet Knights are performing in the middle of the toughest 3 game stretch in college basketball history (#1 UNC then #3 Pitt then current #2 UConn in the same week). Jamie Dixon should have his guys ready for this game after UConn’s loss to Georgetown a couple night earlier, but you never know with college kids particularly ones who probably went home for the holidays and spent time around people who praised them even more than what they normally hear at school. This is definitely an “upset alert” game, but we think the UConn loss should be enough to keep Levance Fields and the Panthers on their toes.
- Wisconsin at #24 Michigan on ESPN2 and ESPN360.com: At first glance this would appear to be a mismatch with the Badgers being unranked and the Wolverines receiving a lot of attention from the media this year, but this game should be very close. Most of you know about the Wolverines (10-2) with losses to Duke (avenged) and Maryland, but the Badgers (9-3) come in with a pretty strong resume too–a blowout loss against UConn along with 2 close losses to Marquette and Texas (by a combined 8 points). Despite their strong starts, both teams still have work to do if they want to guarantee themselves a ticket to the NCAA tournament. As usual the Badgers come in without a true superstar, but have a very balanced attack with 5 players averaging between 7.8 and 12.6 PPG. The Wolverines rely on their stars–Manny Harris (19.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 5.1 APG) and DeShawn Sims (17.2 PPG and 9.2 RPG). I figure the Wolverine fans (and Manny Harris) should be enough to put their team over the top in the Big Ten opener.
4 PM ET
- Iowa at #23 Ohio State on the Big Ten Network: Unfortunately we don’t think we will be seeing Mr. Trillion (Mark Titus) make an on-court appearance because this also figures to be a close game. The Hawkeyes (10-3) haven’t been world-beaters, but they should put up a pretty good fight if Anthony Tucker can rebound from his recent suspension and play up to his early-season form. The Buckeyes looked absolutely awful in their last game a 76-48 loss to West Virginia, which dropped them 10 spots in the polls. If the Buckeyes expect to rebound and contend for a Big Ten title, which they have the potential to do, they will need freshman B.J. Mullens to start playing like the big-time recruit he was out of high school. At the very least, Thad Matta needs Mullens to start playing like the 7-footer that he reportedly is. Seriously, 4.0 RPG in 17.7 minutes per game against mediocre competition isn’t going to cut it for someone who has been hyped as a potential lottery pick. If Mullens can raise his game, he and Evan Turner should be enough to make them contenders for the Big Ten title.
6 PM ET
- UNLV at #18 Louisville on ESPN2 and ESPN360.com: I would use an “upset alert” on this one, but with the way Rick Pitino’s boys have been playing this year they haven’t played well enough for me to consider another loss an upset. Louisville has the talent to blow out UNLV, but to date they haven’t shown the ability to translate that talent into performance this season. UNLV certainly hasn’t been playing great this year, but their pressing defense has started to pay dividends recently with a big win over Arizona. Normally a team as talented as Louisville shouldn’t have trouble with a trapping defense of the level of UNLV’s (saw it on Christmas Eve on a replay of the Southern Utah game on Mountain TV–don’t ask), but it might just be enough pressure to rattle a team that appears to be as mentally weak as Louisville. My prediction: Let’s just say I have a strong suspicion that Rick will be giving another long speech after this one.
8 PM ET
- #17 Gonzaga at Utah on CBS College Sports: As much as I would like to make this a game about 2 teams (sorry Utah), this game is really all about Gonzaga. The Bulldogs, who were ranked 4th in the nation a couple weeks ago, have lost 3 of 4. We’re willing to let the loss to UConn go (we called it the “Game of the Year (to date)” at the time, but neither team has done much lately to help with that claim), but losses to Arizona and Portland State have basically knocked Gonzaga out of contention for a #1 seed this year. However, Mark Few still has a chance at a #2 seed and spot in the West Region if Jeremy Pargo, Matt Bouldin, and company can get back in gear.
10 PM ET
-#1 UNC at Nevada on ESPN2. This is a true road test for the Heels, but it looked better on paper a month ago than it probably will be tonight. The Wolfpack, with Luke Babbit, Armon Johnson and Brandon Fields, appeared to be ready to compete for another WAC championship and an NCAA bid coming into the season, but they have been nothing short of a disappointment so far, losing to pretty much every good team they’ve played. Still, there is talent here, and if UNC is looking ahead to hanging out in the seedy casinos afterwards, Nevada could use their homecourt advantage to make a game of this one. It’s worth keeping an eye on as you lift your glass to toast the new year in the east.
This is the last installment of Fast Breaks for the calendar year, but it’s a loaded one with lots of news before the New Year’s ball drops.
After being spoiled by ridiculously talented freshmen the past two years (Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose, and Michael Beasley), it appears as if we have returned back to normal. While there are several talented diaper dandies out there, none of them has really caught our eye as the next big thing. Pete Thamel gives a short run-down of the candidates for freshman of the year at this point. I’d be interested to hear what you guys have to say about this year’s class because quite frankly I haven’t been that impressed.
Speaking of the Gators. . .UF recruit Austin Rivers, son of Doc (the head coach of the world champion Boston Celtics), led his high school team to a win over nationally-ranked Marietta-Wheeler (GA). Rivers put up 46 points including 30 in the 1st half. We still don’t have word if Doc let him start the next game or made him play JV after his career night.
In a surprising story, Anthony Crater, a highly rated PG coming out of high school last year, was granted a release from his scholarship by Thad Matta. I’d be interested in hearing some of the reasons behind this. It looks like Crater hasn’t been getting much time on the court this year, but it’s really early to be deciding to leave Ohio State just based on that. If any of the Buckeye fans (or haters) have the inside scoop, I would be interested to hear it.
Think you have a rough week ahead of you? Try trading places with Rutgers coach Fred Hill who takes his Scarlet Knights up against #1 UNC, #2 UConn, and #3 Pittsburgh in the same week. On the bright side, only 2 of the 3 games are on the road so Hill at least gets a shot at Pittsburgh in New Jersey. I’m guessing their strength of schedule might go up a little bit this week.
Apparently, Rick left a few of his books back in Rupp Arena because Billy Gillispie wants you to know that the Wildcats can get better. To be fair to Billy, the Wildcats have certainly been much better than what they were like at the beginning of the season, but I don’t think any of us have been wondering if the Wildcats have been playing great basketball recently.
A10 Weekend. The A10 used three televised games on Saturday to announce its presence to America, knocking off an SEC, Big East and Big 12 team in the process (two of which were effectively road games). With the relative weakness of the Pac-10 and SEC this year, the A10 could make a run at a legitimate four NCAA bids this season. Today’s results could go a long way in the Tourney Committee’s minds toward that end. Great weekend for the Atlantic 10.
Temple 88, Tennessee 72. Every outlet in America is making the “Merry Christmas” joke, so we’ll refrain here, but suffice it to say that Temple’s Dionte Christmas stole Bruce Pearl’s cookies and blew up his sled with an explosive game where it seemed as if every shot he threw at the rim was flushing straight through. More importantly, Temple exposed Tennessee’s defense for what it is – simply not good enough to sustain any kind of legitimate run in March. The Owls shot a blistering 55%, led by Xmas’ 35 on seven threes, and it often appeared as if the Vol players had little interest in covering him. The roof nearly came off the place when he hit three trifectas in a row during a personal 1:30 run to blow open the game. Temple, who had not defeated a top 10 team since John Chaney was still on campus, celebrated with a spirited RTC, to which, we say – deserved.
Believe it or not, we’re already one-quarter of the way through the regular season. Most teams have played seven or eight of their allotted 28 regular season games, and as we head into the next two weeks of semester finals, things will quiet down a bit. Thus, now is a good time to stop, take a look back at the first month of the season, and reflect as to some of the things we think we’ve learned through the “getting to know us” portion of the schedule. Here’s your 2008-09 First Quarter Report. (all stats and records through Sun. Dec. 7th)
Top Storyline. Nothing could be finer than to be from Carolina. Right now, the top storyline is whether anyone can stop the North Carolina Tarheels before April 6th in Detroit. There’s no need to go over all the impressive stats in this space again (check here instead), but suffice it to say that UNC has looked absolutely dominant through its eight games, and the reigning NPOY has only played in half of them. It’s an absolute lock that UNC will hit ACC play undefeated and it’s very difficult to envision a scenario where the Heels drop more than a couple in league play by March Madness. The storyline from here on out will be if any other team(s) develop to the point where they can realistically challenge UNC.
Since we’re in the deadest of dead times when it comes to college basketball, we figured now was as good a time as any to update some of our databases with 2008 figures. We like to do this for a couple of reasons: a) we’re incredibly stat nerdy, and if we don’t update our charts with new data in a reasonable amount of time after it becomes available, we begin suffering cold-sweat night terrors involving 39395 errors; and, b) like everyone else, we find it difficult to access this kind of historical data on the interwebs, and so this year we’ll be adding links to Google Docs to harbor all of our raw data.
Yes, Redheads Appreciate Robust Data
Our first task is to update our NBA Draft Picks by School information. You may recall that we put together several posts last summer detailing the historical statistics of the first two rounds of the NBA Draft from its inception as a round-robin spectacle in 1949. (See Draft Picks 1949-2006 by School, by Round and by Decade) Since not a lot of the data has changed in the interim, we’re going to take a different tack this time around. Rather than overwhelming you as we did last year with enormous data-filled tables, we’re going to break it down into smaller bite-size morsels first before giving you the full Monty. However, if you’re the type of person who can’t wait to dive headfirst into reams of data, be our guest. All of the raw data from the 1949-2008 NBA Drafts is here.
So here’s Table A, where we list the 11 programs with the most NBA Draft picks in history (1949-2008). For the full list of programs with ten or more historical draft picks, see our Google Doc on the subject.
It doesn’t take much brainpower to see that UCLA’s Ben Howland and UNC’s Roy Williams are likely to spend the next decade further dominating this list. Louisville and Kansas also stand to rise into the top five quickly with the players Rick Pitino and Bill Self are recruiting these days. Indiana, Duke, Kentucky – all have been trending downward, but how will the newish coaches at IU and UK change that, and will Coach K start recruiting studs again now that making the Sweet 16 is the norm at Duke? St. John’s and Maryland?Bothare living on lost glory with no recent signs of improvement. And keep an eye on the sleeping giant Thad Matta is building at Ohio St. (currently at 25 total picks) – he could overtake the Terps with two more of his Thad Five-type classes.
Total draft picks are nice, but championships are won with first-round talent, and first-round talent tends to become first-round picks (just sayin’). So let’s slice the data a little further to see what schools produce the most first rounders (Table B).
The top six programs in history are also the top six producers of first round talent. Correlation, much? (ok, for that comment, forget Notre Dame and their zero F4s) We’re still aghast that Minnesota continues to appear in the top ten of this list. Something tells us that Tubby won’t exactly set the Twin Cities on fire with first rounders up there on the tundra.
How about elite players? It’s true that a good argument can be made that the NBA’s recent propensity in drafting potential over production has mitigated some of the value of analyzing these draft numbers at the college level, but there’s likely still a strong correlation between elite NBA draftees and collegiate team success. See Table C for the list of the schools with the most Top 10, Top 5 and #1 Overall Picks.
LSU is the real anomaly of this group – they’ve had a modicum of team success over the years (three F4s), but they seem to excel in producing top-tier individual talent, with eight Top 5 picks in history. Considering that LSU trails only UNC, UCLA and Duke in that category, it is phenomenal that the Tigers haven’t had more national success over the years (until we remember again… Dale Brown, John Brady). Did anyone else realize that Duquesne has had two #1 picks in its history, and that they were in consecutive years?!? Those Dick Ricketts (1955) and Sihugo Green (1956) teams of the mid-50s must have had P-town roiling, eh? (well, actually, the Dukes were NIT Champs in 1955).
Now we’re to Table D, which shows the breakdown of picks by decade. Keep in mind that the table is sorted by the 2000s column on the left – yes, we’re guilty of a serious case of presentism.
We threw this table up mostly to show that with one NBA Draft remaining this decade, several schools have a chance to take the lead for most picks in the 2000s. UCLA, Duke, Connecticut, Florida and Arizona could all have a couple more picks in the books by this time next year. UNC is the real wildcard, though. The Heels could have as many as five draftees in next year’s class, which would give them an outside shot at leading the decade, and is amazingly something that UNC has never done in its regal NBA Draft history.
From the in-case-you-missed-it file, and we know you did, THE Ohio State University played in the Dave Odom Invitational NIT Championship last night against UMass, and since the Buckeyes were not playing Florida in a collegiate postseason event, they actually managed to win this one 92-85.
Photo Credit:11 Warriors
Kosta Koufos led the way for OSU with 23 pts while Ricky Harris poured in 27 for the losing team. This is probably a good thing for Thad Matta’s team, as he stands to lose his top three scorers (Othello Hunter and Jamar Butler to graduation; Kosta Koufos to Europe?), leaving the Buckeyes to rely predominantly on David Lighty, Evan Turner, Jon Diebler and superfrosh BJ Mullens next season. We’re not saying that a Thad Matta team is ever out of the picture, but this time next season an NIT championship may seem like manna from the gods.
Meanwhile, here was C-bus’s reaction to the ever-elusive NIT title…
Game of the Day. #10 Duke 77 #12 Marquette 73. There were several games we were looking forward to watching today, but truthfully this was the only game that stepped up to the plate and delivered an interesting result as Duke won its fourth Maui Invitational. We continue to be impressed by what Duke is accomplishing without any semblance of an inside presence. Literally, none. Everything they get is off the drive or off the jumper. Luckily for them, the Devils have the right mix of slashers and shooters to make that work. The long-term problem that Duke will ultimately face is what happens when they have to stare down a team with talented bigs as well as guards. In the Maui, Illinois had nice bigs but weak guard play. Marquette was the polar opposite – fantastic guards, but nothing inside. Duke can ride this strategy to a really nice season (as usual), but we don’t really see them making noise deep into March because of that fundamental weakness. Are we wrong about this? As for tonight’s game, it was fun to watch a close one but we never really believed Marquette would/could clutch this game away from Duke. Too many poor decisions with the ball, missed layups and fouls (some of which, of course, were dubious). Kyle Singler (25/7) led Duke with another great game, and Demarcus Nelson (16/7) had a nice game as well, but our takeaway tonight comes from the Marquette side. Why is it every time we watch MU we end up feeling like Jerel McNeal (11/2 on 4-7 shooting) and Wes Matthews (12/4 on 4-7 shooting) are better than the much-publicized Dominic James (12/6 on 4-16 shooting)? Just a thought. Final take – Duke and Marquette are good teams, but both have such a major fundamental flaw in the lack of any respectable inside game that their long-term prospects seem no better than the Sweet 16 this year.
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Other Games We Saw. Ohio St. 79, #22 Syracuse 65. This game wasn’t as close as the score indicated. We have to hand it again to Thad Matta – he gets his personnel to play hard and under control. Which is more than we can say for Jim Boeheim’s team tonight. While both teams are using several freshmen, it was OSU that looked far more poised. OSU’s Kosta Koufos (24/9) seemed unstoppable at times, showing three-point range on his jumper and a variety of bank shots and short Js in the paint. We may have severely underestimated this guy – if Duke had him, they would probably be F4-bound this year. Jamar Butler also hit several threes at opportune moments to keep Syracuse from ever getting a serious run mounted in the second half. The sole bright spot for the Cuse was from jumping jack rookie Donte Greene (21/10), but his classmate Jonny Flynn was simply horrid, putting up an 0-6 zero-pt night. What has happened to Flynn since his initial 28-pt explosion against Siena? After starting the year 10-13, he’s gone 4-19 since. #6 Louisville 68, UNLV 48. We had high hopes for this game as well, but it turned out to be a very ugly contest. Still, breaking a team’s 19-game winning streak at home is no joke, and the Cards (using only 8 scholarship players) should be commended for the convincing win. UNLV (eFG% = 30%) couldn’t find the basket with both hands tonight, and Louisville spent much of the game in the same Vegas Strip-induced fog. Earl Clark stepped up for the Cards with a dub-dub (16/13) and Terrence Williams did his usual thing (9/5/6 assts), and that was pretty much all they needed. We’re hopeful that the UL games coming up this weekend in Vegas will be a little more exciting. #16 Texas A&M 77, Washington 63. This was another game we had circled that didn’t really come through. UW looked lethargic and uninterested while Texas A&M methodically went about its business in winning the game. What is it about Pac-10 teams playing away from home so far this year – with the exception of UCLA, they all look terrible. Jon Brockman (21/15) was solid for Washington in the loss, but the props should go to the Texas A&M guards Dominique Kirk and Donald Sloan who combined for 33/6/6 assts while harassing the UW guards into a poor shooting night. Mark Turgeon is a great coach, so it should be no surprise that TAMU’s program remains strong after Billy Gillispie’s departure. Ohio St. and Texas A&M will meet in the PNIT finals.
Upset of the Night. Western Michigan 83, #21 Davidson 76. When is an upset not really an upset – how about this game? Davidson is ranked, but was favored by a mere 4 pts with good reason. W. Michigan is one of the leading contenders for the MAC title this year. In this game, WMU basically just shot the lights out, with an eFG% of 73% (v. 52% for Davidson). They hit 63% from two-point range and 55% (12-22) from three, as all five starters had double figures. For Davidson, Stephen Curry did his best to keep the Wildcats in the game as he had 25 pts (incl. 5 threes), but his only help came from backcourt mate Jason Richards (23/3/8 assts). While this loss may cause pollster consternation because WMU is a no-name opponent, we’re not ready to buy into that just yet. WMU is a good team and they were playing at home, but we still believe that Davidson can compete with (and beat) one or two of the remaining three biggies on its schedule (NC State or Duke, but not UCLA).
Other Ranked Teams.
#4 Kansas 87, N. Arizona 46. Darrell Arthur led the way with 17/6 in the blowout.
#5 Georgetown 57, Ball St. 48. Very surprised JT3 didn’t pour it on in this game.
#17 Butler 79, Michigan 65. Started to watch, but got sleepy…
#24 Clemson 74, Presbyterian 57. Clemson off to its usual unbeaten Nov/Dec.
Other Scores of Note.
Arizona St. 87, LSU 84. It’s so hard to sit back and watch good talent wasted (ahem, LSU).
Illinois 65, Oklahoma St. 49. The Illini are going to be their typical difficult selves this year.
Chaminade 74, Princeton 70. You go, Silverswords!
#24 Clemson 74, Presbyterian 57. Clemson off to its usual unbeaten Nov/Dec.
On Tap Today (all times EST). The Thanksgiving holiday isn’t a hoops day, so there are only ten games on tap, but wow, we get Beastley and Mayo late-night as we’re coming out of our food coma…
South Carolina (-2.5) v. Penn St. (ESPN2) 12pm – two hapless teams searching for a respectable win in the Old Spice Classic.
Mississippi St. (-10.5) v. UC Irvine (ESPNU) 2pm - MSU cannot afford to lose this game in UCI’s back yard (Anaheim).
NC State (-13.5) v. Rider (ESPN2) 2pm – NC State gets a chance to recover from the UNO loss.
S. Illinois (-16) v. Chattanooga (ESPNU) 4pm – our first television look at SIU this year.
Villanova (-6.5) v. Central Florida (ESPN2) 7pm – the game is in Orlando; will anyone be there?
Kansas St. (-2) v. George Mason (ESPN2) 9pm – not only is it our first look at Beastley, it’s also a great matchup!
Miami (OH) (-3) v. South Alabama (ESPNU) 9:30pm – won’t be watching this one much.
Gonzaga (-6) v. W. Kentucky (ESPNU) 11:30pm - a tremendous matchup in the Great Alaska.
USC (-13) v. San Diego (ESPN2) 11:30pm – conveniently timed post-Beastley and with our second turkey sandwich.
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ten tuesday scribbles | Tagged: aj ogilvy, andy rautins, antonio pena, arinze onuaku, bill self, byu, chris kramer, corey fisher, david lighty, demarcus cousins, e'twaun moore, evan turner, jackson emery, jajuan johnson, jerime simmons, jermaine beal, jimmer fredette, john jenkins, john wall, jon diebler, jonathan tavernari. jeffery taylor, kansas, keaton grant, kentucky, kevin stallings, kris joseph, kyle madsen, ohio state, pj hill, purdue, rick jackson, robbie hummel, scottie reynolds, syracuse, taylor king, thad matta, tyler haws, tyshawn taylor, vanderbilt, villanova, wes johnson, william buford | 
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Posted by zhayes9
Now that we’re starting to get into the meat of the college basketball conference we are starting to get quality games on a regular basis which means that we will be having the return of our regular feature. There isn’t a “blockbuster” game tonight like Texas-Kansas State, but there are 3 games that feature potential NCAA tournament teams matching up against each other that are worth keeping an eye on while you try to catch up on the last two hours of 24.
