The Make or Break series will tell us what we need to know about each SEC team by looking at the three most important non-conference games on each team’s schedule. Depending on the outcome, these three games could make OR break that team’s season because of the strengths it shows or weaknesses it could expose. The next team in the series is the Vanderbilt Commodores.

Vanderbilt entered the last two NCAA Tournaments as a #4 seed (2009-10) and a #5 seed (2010-11), yet lost in its first game both years. The Commodores last made the Sweet Sixteen in 2007. So, it’s understandable if national college basketball writers and analysts are a bit hesitant to declare Vandy as a Final Four contender. Last year, Vanderbilt was unable to put teams away, especially in close games. The ‘Dores lost a double-digit lead in five of their 11 losses. Their inabililty to close out opponents is a cause for concern this year for a team that is expected to challenge for the SEC title.

Of course, Vanderbilt returns all five starters, including SEC Player of the Year, John Jenkins. This Vandy team has high expectations, and the offensive firepower to be amongst the nation’s best. The ‘Dores also boast some of the best non-conference games in the country as they have several top 25 matchups to test their talented and experienced squad. Preseason All-SEC center, Festus Ezeli, will miss many of their big matchups early on as he recovers from a sprained MCL and PCL injury.

Vanderbilt will miss Ezeli's defense and post presence during his absence.

The three key non-conference games that will make or break the Commodores’ schedule this season:

Read the rest of this entry »

SPONSORED: Rush the Court is pleased to bring you a one-day fantasy college basketball league courtesy of FanDuel.com to tip off the season. The league, which is completely free to enter, starts on Tuesday, Nov. 15, and features $200 in prizes. Even better, if you beat our trained monkey that we’ve assigned to make our picks (username: RTCmonkey), you’ll win even more. Test your college hoops knowledge to win! Click here to enter.

1. Happy Veteran’s Day, everyone. If you have a family member, friend or acquaintance who has given their time and energy during their lives to help this nation stay safe, shake their hand or give them a pat on the back — trust us, they’ll appreciate it. This year’s Veteran’s Day has a particularly deep meaning for our purposes, as it also doubles as the official ‘unofficial’ opening night of the college basketball season. Several teams have already gotten under way in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic, but most everyone else begins this weekend. One hundred thirty-one games dot the schedule this evening, including 19 of the RTC Top 25 teams in America. The headliner game on this holiday is that curious little aircraft carrier game down in San Diego involving the consensus #1 team, North Carolina, and a perplexing but always-dangerous Michigan State squad. But there are several other noteworthy games tonight, including a talented Belmont squad visiting Duke at 9 PM on ESPNU and a rising Oregon team visiting a Vanderbilt program harboring massive expectations in Nashville. For a complete list of view-worthy games, be sure to click on our Nightly Nonsense tab above here, and check back this afternoon for our weekend version of Set Your TiVo, which will outline all the interesting games for the next three days.  As of tonight, we can say it without qualifying language — college hoops is back, baby…
2. And what about that game on the deck of the USS Carl Vinson? The temperature will be in the mid-60s and winds are expected to be in the 10-15 MPH range this evening in San Diego, but the one thing everyone seems to be forgetting about the players is that every one of them has played outdoor pickup ball at one time or another. Sure, it’s not the same as playing in the controlled environment of a gym, but who hasn’t experienced the unique situation of having to slightly adjust your jumper to account for the breeze? Many of these players probably developed their games on the playgrounds across America. The players will probably be more jittery because President Obama will be there rather than dealing with the sun and wind.
3. The NBA could be on the verge of a return with a 72-game season, or none at all, but if you’re at all interested in reading about the 2011-12 college basketball season as written for NBA fans, Kevin Pelton at Basketball Prospectus is your man. It’s an intriguing look at the collegiate game in that the perspective changes when one’s only use for NCAA hoops is as a finishing school before the big time. While we’re on the subject of the pros, the current deal offered by the owners to the players has not yet addressed the ‘ancillary’ issue of a minimum draft age. We wonder that if the players cave here on the revenue split whether that will embolden them to ask for and receive concessions with respect to the draft age (among other things). From the perspective that a two-year minimum is better for the game of college basketball, it might actually be better in the long run if the players refuse the owners’ latest offer.
4. Miami’s DeQuan Jones has been suspended by the university for the entire 2011-12 season as a result of his alleged involvement with improprieties relating to his recruitment by Frank Haith, as uncovered by Yahoo! Sports during the Nevin Shapiro scandal. Shapiro stated in interviews that Haith arranged for $10,000 to be paid to Jones’ family to secure his commitment in 2008. Given that the Hurricanes could potentially lose a number of wins if Jim Larranaga now played Jones and it was later determined that he was an ineligible player, this is a smart move. Still, it doesn’t help with the Hurricanes’ current glaring lack of depth, as UM will now have only seven scholarship players available heading into tonight’s opening game against Tennessee Tech.
5. Finally, it’s time for the SI Crystal Ball, where Seth Davis, Luke Winn and Andy Glockner make their preseason picks on the 2011-12 Final Four, NPOY, surprise team, flops, and so on. Would you believe that the only category of consensus among the trio came when picking their Best Mid-Major team? We’ll give you three guesses to see if you can get it right… As always, it’s a good read, but even the best in the business (as these guys are) are lucky to bat just above the Mendoza line with their predictions — in last year’s Crystal Ball, for example, the three picked a grand total of zero Final Four teams (including darkhorses). College basketball prognostication is more art than science, we’ll readily admit, but we’re totally on board with Davis and Glockner’s darkhorse team this season (hint: it starts with an “X”).

While most of the college basketball world will be focused on the game between North Carolina and Michigan State on the USS Carl Vinson on Veterans Day there are plenty of other schools that are doing their part to honor military personnel. The UNC-Michigan State game will be attended almost entirely by military personnel, who have already been pre-selected, but if you are a veteran and were not selected to be on the ship to watch the game there are other opportunities.

Veterans Can Attend A Handful Of Games For Free On Veterans Day (Credit: AP Photo/U.S. Navy - Seaman Amanda Huntoon)

We have compiled a list of those opportunities based on what the host schools for Fridays games had on their websites as of late on Wednesday night (yes, we sifted through about 120 school web sites with some easier to navigate than others). If you know of any others, let us know so we can add them to the list. Our current list (all start times are local):

• Air Force: Discounted admission ($5) for all military personnel with ID (active or retired) for the game against Army, which starts at 7:30 PM, as well as the rest of the All-Military Classic this weekend (featuring Citadel and VMI). It isn’t stated on the website, but we confirmed with Air Force media relations.
• Arkansas: Free admission for all military personnel with ID (active or retired) for the game against USC-Upstate, which starts at 7 PM.
  
• Florida State: Free admission for all military personnel with ID (active or retired) for the game against Jacksonville, which start at 7 PM.
• La Salle: Free admission to all military personnel with ID (active or retired) for the game against Lafayette, which starts at 7 PM.
• Liberty: Discounted admission ($1) for all active military, fire, EMS and police personnel with ID and their families for the game against Randolph, which starts at 7 PM.
• Longwood: Free admission for all military personnel with ID (active or retired) for the game against Navy, which starts at 7 PM.
• Nebraska: Free admission for all military personnel with ID (active or retired) for the game against South Dakota, which starts at 7 PM.
• New Hampshire: Discounted admission ($3) for all military personnel with ID (active or retired) for the game against Suffolk, which starts at 7 PM.
• Saint Louis: Free admission for all military personnel with ID (active or retired) for the game against Tennessee State, which starts at 8 PM.
• Wake Forest: Free admission to military personnel with ID and their immediate families for the game against Loyola (MD), which starts at 7 PM.
• Xavier: Free admission with two tickets for all military personnel with ID (active or retired) for the game against Morgan State, which starts at 7 PM.

Kevin Doyle is an RTC contributor and the Patriot League correspondent. You can find him on twitter @KLDoyle11

Today is one of five days throughout the year when I roll out of bed in the morning and I can’t help but look into the mirror with a devilish looking grin. Today, of course, marks the beginning of the college basketball season. It is hard to believe that it has been seven months since that defensive slugfest between Connecticut and Butler in the National Championship game, but we can now return home from school/work and flip on the tube to have some college hoops brighten our evening. As for the other four days you may be wondering about. Well, they seem trivial right now, but here they are anyways: 1) BCS Title Game, 2) Super Bowl Sunday, 3) That Thursday in mid-March that commences the NCAA Basketball Tournament, 4) Sunday at the Masters.

O26 Celebrations Such As This One Warm My Heart (AP)

One caveat to my favorite sports days of the year that I must include: Any day when David overtakes Goliath in the NCAA Tournament is a favorite day of mine, and I am sure it is of others as well. America’s love of the “little guy” come March leads me into the focal point of this preview: an Introduction— or a refresher for others — to The Other 26 article that details life outside of the six BCS/power conferences. For those who are already familiar with the weekly article, please bear with me.

Read the rest of this entry »

Andrew Murawa is the Pac-12 and Mountain West correspondent for RTC and a microsite writer. You can find him on Twitter @amurawa.

Question: Which Non-BCS League Will Be the Best This Season?

In each of the past four years, the Mountain West Conference, Conference USA, Atlantic 10 and Missouri Valley Conference have all been ranked by Ken Pomeroy somewhere between the seventh- and tenth-best conferences in the nation. Going back nine years, at least three of those conferences have been among the top ten conferences in the nation every season, and no other non-BCS conference outside of these four has rated higher than ninth in that span. Now, as good as the Colonial may be this year, as good as the West Coast Conference or even the MAAC may be this season, I’m willing to wager that this year will be no different. One of the MW, the A-10, the MVC or C-USA will be the best non-power conference this season.

The Mountain West Will Take a Step Back With Losses of SDSU Stars (and BYU)

Further, I’ll be willing to wager that the Mountain West, a conference that has only once in that span ranked lower than eighth, will not be the best of those conferences this season. Last year as it rode BYU and San Diego State (not to mention UNLV, Colorado State and New Mexico), it was almost unquestionably the best non-power conference. But, gone are Jimmer Fredette and Kawhi Leonard. And in fact, BYU is gone altogether, as is Utah. UNLV and New Mexico return, and both of them will be very good, but SDSU will take a big step back this season, Colorado State looks to be ordinary, and the rest of the conference ranges from unspectacular to bad.

Read the rest of this entry »

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.  He will periodically put together his latest bracket projections throughout the season.  Tell him where you agree or disagree @zhayes9 on Twitter.

• Last Four In: Drexel, Illinois, Kansas State, Notre Dame.
• First Four Out: Virginia Tech, Georgetown, Oregon, Minnesota.
• Next Four Out: Northwestern, BYU, Princeton, Oklahoma State.

Click to Enlarge Bracket

Notes

• This was the most clear-cut foursome for the top line that I can recall during any previous preseason bracket and all four deserve to be anointed Final Four teams here in October.
• Maybe a bit of a surprise in both instances, but I’m taking Texas A&M and California to win their respective leagues. Maybe their talent level is not up to par with the likes of Kansas and UCLA, but I like their stability, coaching and players like Khris Middleton and Allen Crabbe are primed to explode.

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

In case you missed it, check out games #68-52 and #51-35.

34. February 21: Kentucky at Mississippi State (9:00, ESPN)- Remember the last time Kentucky traveled to The Hump to take on Mississippi State late in the year? The hatred was off the charts before (taunting texts to DeMarcus Cousins from State fans) during (an intense 81-75 overtime win by the #2 Wildcats) and after (fans serenading the officials with a bottle showering) the game. While we can do without the texting and postgame embarrassment, players like Bulldogs point guard Dee Bost still harbor a bitter taste in their mouth from that outcome. If one can pinpoint a weakness with this loaded Kentucky team, it’s the lack of a true post presence. State can trot out the 6’11 Arnett Moultrie and the 6’10 Renardo Sidney. If those two are committed to the post for 40 minutes, this could be one of UK’s SEC stumbling blocks.

Senior Dee Bost is looking for a measure of revenge against Kentucky

33. February 22: Kansas at Texas A&M (9:00, ESPN)- After winning seven consecutive Big 12 titles, it’s fair to label Kansas as the hunted. That makes a very capable Texas A&M team the most threatening hunter. With B12 POY candidate Khris Middleton, Washington transfer Elston Turner and a deep frontcourt, Billy Kennedy is walking into an ideal situation once he gets his health in order. A&M may have a more complete roster, but Kansas was still picked to win the Big 12 in a tie with the Aggies. Until someone knocks the Jayhawks off their pedestal, they deserve to be considered favorites. This game in late February could go a long way towards deciding the regular season crown.

32. February 23: Duke at Florida State (7:00, ESPN)- ESPN’s Doug Gottlieb outlined a compelling case that Florida State is much closer to Duke’s equal than most believe, mostly because of their lockdown defense, absurd athleticism and length at every position. Who wins out when Duke’s star-studded offensive attack – buoyed by the ultra-talented freshman Austin Rivers and the emerging Ryan Kelly – meets the ‘Noles dynamic defenders? Last season, FSU held a Singler and Smith-led Duke team to 61 points in an upset win.

Read the rest of this entry »

1. Louisville got some great news on Friday when the NCAA announced that it was clearing Wayne Blackshear to play after reviewing some of his academic paperwork. As it stands now the Cardinals have a very deep team, but lack the star power that many of the teams above them have. Once he gets back in shape, Blackshear (a McDonald’s All-American who averaged 32.6 PPG and 14.6 RPG as a high school senior in Chicago) could be the piece that helps lift them from a potential Sweet 16 team to a truly elite team. With Blackshear joining Chane Behanan the Cardinals should have one of the more electric freshmen duos in the nation that could potentially propel them to the next level.
2. Like Louisville, Xavier also picked up a big piece when they reinstated senior center Kenny Frease after suspending him nine days earlier for “not fulfilling all the responsibilities of a Xavier basketball player”. Apparently, he learned to fulfill those responsibilities pretty quickly. Although Xavier coach Chris Mack claims that the suspension was “tough” for Frease we are assuming he will be able to overcome the trauma of not participating in Midnight Madness. If Frease can continue to fulfill his responsibilities (whatever they were) and build on a strong junior season (11.7 PPG and 7.1 RPG) the Musketeers could have a legitimate shot at making it into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament and making some noise there.
3. It may just be posturing, but Gary Harris Jr. does not have a top choice according to his father despite Indiana fans insisting that he is definitely going to be a Hoosier. Instead, Indiana is among four schools that Harris is considering at this time with Kentucky, Michigan State, and Purdue being the other three. Harris is the final piece of a class that Tom Crean is using to reestablish the Hoosiers as the dominant school for recruiting in the state of Indiana after they failed to keep many of the top recruits in-state for the past decade. If Crean is able to get Harris to commit to Indiana he will have secured all three five-star recruits in the state (Hanner Perea and Kevin “Yogi” Ferrell have already committed) at which point the Indiana hype machine would go into overdrive along with the expectations for Crean for the next four years.
4. Seth Davis drops in on Syracuse to take a look at one of the more interesting teams in the country. As Davis notes, Jim Boeheim calls this year’s team, “the best team we’ve had in a long time”, and the polls seem to agree ranking the Orange 5th in the country. For a team that returns nine of its top ten scorers on a team that went 26-7 last year before losing in the third round of the NCAA Tournament and adds two McDonald’s All-Americans, it seems reasonable to expect this team to contend for a national title. However, like Davis, we get this strange feeling that Syracuse lacks the elite talent to be a national title favorite at this point. It is possible that someone could breakout and have a huge season, but looking through their roster I don’t see anybody who will take over a game. Unfortunately, we probably will not get an idea of how good this team is until later in the year due to their atrocious non-conference schedule as they only play one good team (Florida) before they start Big East play and that game is being played in Syracuse.
5. You may be familiar with the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective from their work last year on whether or not a team should foul when up by three points at the end of the game. While that piece got a lot of attention from the national media and was even discussed on television a few times, they do put out work fairly frequently that does not get the same level of attention, but is still quite interesting. Their most recent piece is an attempt to answer the question of whether or not Vegas gets more accurate with college basketball lines as the season progresses. It certainly will not generate as much attention as the previously mentioned post, but it is interesting for those that like to follow lines for “academic purposes”.

With the the release of today’s ESPN/USA Today preseason poll and next week’s Associated Press preseason poll college basketball fans across the country can go into full-fledged sniping mode at where their favorite team is ranked or where a rival is ranked (that is unless you are North Carolina in which case your only complaint is that you did not get every single #1 vote). We thought it would be interesting to take a look at the historical trends of how teams perform throughout the regular season as compared to where the selected media and coaches rank those teams coming into the season.

You May Be Surprised With Where Tom Izzo's Teams Rank

Obviously, there are some limitations here like the fact that we are basing this off regular season results and ignoring postseason success and that we are relying on the opinions of those coaches and writers to determine how successful a team is. On the first issue, we will agree that most college basketball fans (casual and otherwise) will probably remember a team’s success based on their performance in March rather than the overall body of work. We like to think that we are a bit more nuanced in our approach to basketball and think that a team’s overall performance is more than just six games in March. Consequently, we feel that their regular-season performance is probably a better indicator of how good they were. If you feel strongly the other way, leave your reasoning in the comment section and we may reconsider our view. The second issue is more legitimate and we seriously considered using the end-of-season KenPom.com rankings as the basis for overall performance, but in the end we decided to compare apples-to-apples and include coach/media bias in the preseason and end-of-season rankings. Of course, we may go back and do this exercise with the Pomeroy rankings in the near future.

Read the rest of this entry »

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

Note: Check out games #68-52 on the list here.

51. February 25: Memphis at Marshall (4:00, FSN)- The most likely candidate to knock off powerhouse Memphis isn’t a usual suspect like UAB, UTEP or Tulsa. Instead, it’s Tom Herrion and Marshall, a team loaded with reigning C-USA freshman of the year DeAndre Kane, point guard standout Damier Pitts and Justin Coleman, a former Louisville commit with huge upside. The problem is that Memphis is overflowing with talent up and down the roster. Will Barton could lead the league in scoring, Adonis Thomas is a superb athlete and Tarik Black is the Tigers most indispensable player. Whether Pitts can fluster Memphis’ young point guard Joe Jackson, who averaged more turnovers than assists as a freshman, is a storyline to watch when these two clash in late February, possibly for a conference crown.

Josh Pastner and Memphis aim to hold off upstart Marshall this season

50.  February 4: Xavier at Memphis (1:00, FSN)- As per usual, Memphis loaded up on their non-conference schedule to make up for a weaker Conference USA slate. The Tigers travel to Louisville, but their toughest home date next season could very well be Xavier, another premiere non-BCS school who’s not afraid to challenge themselves outside of conference play. The Musketeers boast a loaded backcourt spearheaded by Tu Holloway, a legitimate sleeper for the Wooden Award, and he’ll likely be matching buckets with Memphis’ Will Barton. But it’s Antonio Barton, the often overshadowed brother, who made rapid defensive improvements last season and could draw the assignment of containing Holloway.

49. February 1: Connecticut at Georgetown (7:00, ESPN2)- The Hoyas lost their core in Chris Wright and Austin Freeman, but it was a duo that only led the program to a 27-27 record over the last three seasons in Big East play. They’ll need Jason Clark, who had a much quieter junior season than expected, to grab hold of a leadership role and become an all-Big East performer. He’ll need help from his friends Henry Sims and Nate Lubick or Connecticut’s intimidating duo of Alex Oriakhi and Andre Drummond will have their way in the paint.

48. February 7: Purdue at Ohio State (9:00, ESPN)- These two schools have had some memorable meetings recently, from Evan Turner’s coming out party in West Lafayette to E’Twaun Moore’s 38-point effort last season. Any opponent that hopes to knock off the Sullinger-Craft-Buford led Buckeyes in Columbus this season will need to play a near-perfect 40 minutes. A disciplined Purdue team coached by Matt Painter and led by a healthy Robbie Hummel is capable.

Read the rest of this entry »