Ray Floriani of College Chalktalk is the RTC correspondent for the NEC and MAAC Conferences. 

SOUTH ORANGE, NJ – The postseason brackets are set and the Northeast Conference tournament tips off tonight. The schedule:

Thursday

• Quinnipiac at LIU
• Central Connecticut  at Sacred Heart
• St.Francis (NY) at Robert Morris
• Wagner at Mount St. Mary’s

**Semifinals are Sunday at the home court of the higher seed and the finals are next Wednesday, 8:00 on ESPN2. Again at the home court of the highest remaining seed (see below bracket).

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Ray Floriani of College Chalktalk is the RTC correspondent for the NEC and MAAC Conferences.

SOUTH ORANGE, NJ – The Northeast Conference season is in the home stretch. The top eight teams qualify for the post season. Each round is held at the home court of the higher seed. The tempo free breakdown as of Friday February 20.

Note : EM is efficiency margin or the difference between offensive and defensive points per possession. 

* The order is by standings which hold true to form in relation to efficiency margin. The lone exception in the EM pecking order is Quinnipiac who is discussed below.

** The average pace of NEC games is 68 possessions. Around mid-pack so to speak. Not NASCAR (mid seventies) and not pedestrian either. 

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With Selection Sunday coming up in just a few short weeks, fans of teams across the country are starting to analyze their team’s results looking at “quality wins” and “bad losses” (Aren’t they all?), digging into obscure computer formulas that analyze strength of schedule, margin of victory, and even more esoteric statistics. However, sometimes it is better to keep it simple. One of the better examples of this comes from Stephen Greenwell (h/t to Patrick Marshall of Bluejay Basketball for pointing this out) who decided to look at the simplest correlation of them all: wins and NCAA tournament bids.

Steven looked at the results from the 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08 seasons and stratified teams based on the number of wins they had that year regardless of their strength of schedule or any other factor. The results are below:

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.  He’ll be regularly out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.

Here’s the latest edition of RTC Bracketology from our resident bracketologist Zach. This was created before the Pitt-UConn game last night so it does not reflect that game or any others from last night.

RTC Bracket as of February 16th

More on the key games this week and a rationale of the seeds and snubs after the jump.

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A few notes:

• As you’ll notice, I included a comment about each and every team in the bracket. I’ll be doing this in each of my final four brackets (2/16, 2/23, 3/2 and 3/7) as we head towards Selection Sunday.
• Expect a Bubble Watch post from me on Thursday updating the current bubble picture, a feature that will run very similar to ESPN’s weekly bubble watch.
• As always, any questions/comments/complaints about this week’s bracket, feel free to comment.

Automatic Bids: Boston University, Xavier, North Carolina, East Tennessee State, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Weber State, VMI, Michigan State, Long Beach State, Northeastern, Memphis, Butler, Princeton, Siena, Buffalo, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, San Diego State, Robert Morris, Morehead State, UCLA, Holy Cross, LSU, Davidson, Sam Houston State, Alabama State, North Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, Utah State

Last Four In: Arizona, Miami, Nebraska, Michigan
Last Four Out: Wisconsin, BYU, UNLV, Kansas State
Next Four Out: Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, Providence, Penn State
Also Considered: Georgetown, Texas A&M, Baylor, Creighton, Maryland, Saint Mary’s, Northwestern, Tulsa

1 Seeds

• Connecticut- The #1 overall seed and #1 team in the polls, Connecticut boasts 6 wins against the top 50 and still has two contests against Pittsburgh remaining on the schedule.
• Oklahoma– The Sooners have the most wins vs. the top 100 (15) of any team, but only 1 of those victories has come vs. the top 25. They’re the #2 overall seed.
• North Carolina– The projected ACC champion has continued to win while Duke and Wake Forest slipped up multiple times. The showdown with Duke on Wednesday is for a #1 seed.
• Pittsburgh– Despite two conference losses, Pitt garners the final #1 seed due to their #2 RPI, 4 wins vs. the top 25 and a much stronger non-conference resume than Louisville.

2 Seeds

• Duke– Despite the throttling by Clemson, Duke still owns the top overall RPI and have 7 wins against the RPI top 50. They can reclaim the ACC automatic bid this week.
• Louisville– A sexy 9-1 Big East record and 4 wins vs. the RPI top 25 keep Louisville a comfortable 2. They should watch out for pesky Notre Dame this week.
• Michigan State– The projected Big Ten champion has stayed the same all season- Michigan State. A 7 RPI, 6 SOS and comfortable lead over Ohio State and Illinois means they should stay there.
• Marquette– The final #2 seed goes to the fourth Big East team in the field already- Marquette. They slipped in Tampa but still 9-1 and 20 wins overall is enough to grab the honor.

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Ray Floriani of College Chalktalk is the RTC correspondent for the NEC and MAAC Conferences.

NEWARK, NJ – Player of the week was Joey Henley, a senior forward,  who averaged a double-double (15 points, 11.5 rebounds) in two Sacred Heart victories. LIU freshman forward Julian Boyd earned his fourth Rookie of the Week honor with a 15 ppg, 8 rebound showing in a 1-1 week.

The standings as of Friday February 6, 2009:

1. Robert Morris        10-1
2. Mount St. Mary        8-4
3. LIU                7-4
4. Central Ct.            7-5
5. Sacred Heart            7-5
6. Quinnipiac            6-6
7. St.Francis (NY)        5-7
8. FDU                5-7
9. Monmouth            4-7
10. Wagner            3-9
11. St.Francis (PA)        2-9

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Ray Floriani of College Chalktalk is the RTC correspondent for the NEC and MAAC conferences.

SOUTH ORANGE, NJ – The Northeast Conference report reaches out to the present, and recent past.
 
Standings as of Friday January 23, 2009

1. Robert Morris  7-1
2. Mount St.Mary’s  5-3
3. LIU    5-3
4. Central Connecticut 4-4
5. Quinnipiac   4-4
6. Sacred Heart   4-4
7. FDU    4-4
8. Monmouth    4-4
9. Wagner   3-5
10. St. Francis (NY)   3-5
11. St. Francis (PA)  1-7

Co-Players  of the Week :

• Jeremy Chappell, Robert Morris. The 6-3 senior guard earned the honors, averaging 19 points and 6 rebounds in wins over Central Connecticut and Wagner.
• Jeremy Goode, Mt.St.Mary’s.  Goode shares the award for a week that saw him average 18 points and 4.5 assists. In addition the 5-9 guard averaged 4.5 boards during that stretch. 

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Ray Floriani of College Chalktalk is the RTC correspondent for the MAAC and NEC Conferences.

SOUTH ORANGE, NJ – The standings of the NEC, Monday January 12, as the race is starting to take shape.

1. Robert Morris   5-1
2. LIU    4-1
3. Central Ct.   3-2
4. Quinnipiac   3-2
5. Sacred Heart   3-3
6. Wagner   2-3
7. Mount St. Mary’s  2-3
8. St.Francis(NY)  2-3
9. Monmouth   2-3
10. FDU    2-4
11. St.Francis(PA)   1-4

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Ray Floriani of College Chalktalk is the RTC correspondent for the NEC and MAAC Conferences.

NEWARK, NJ – The Northeast Conference Co-Players of the Week were James Feldeine and Jeremy Chappell. Feldiene, a junior guard for Quinnipiac,  averaged 27.5 ppg, 8 boards and 5 assists in a spectacularly well rounded week. Quinnipiac went 1-1 during that stretch.  Chappell, a senior guard for Robert Morris and one of the NEC’s elite, averaged 22 points, 7 rebounds over a three game stretch that saw the Colonials take road games against Lafayette and Central Michigan. The latter was played at the Detroit Pistons home at the Palace at Auburn Hills.

Rookie of the Week was Central Connecticut freshman Bobby Ptacek. The  6-3 guard had career highs of 20 points 6 rebounds in the Blue Devils’ win over Princeton.

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Ray Floriani of College Chalktalk is the RTC correspondent for the NEC and MAAC Conferences.

Decided to take a tempo free look at the Northeast Conference. The win-loss record includes all games, though everyone has a couple conference games in the total. The plus-minus is the difference between offensive and defensive points per possession. Naturally a figure on the plus side is good, while a minus figure suggests defense (most likely)  should be addressed. The far right column is the average possessions per game. In the sixties is slow to moderate. Low seventies is still moderate while high seventies on up is ‘metal to the pedal’ range. A thank you to Basketball State for expedient availability of the data.   The average possessions for NEC teams is 68, more on the moderate to slow variety.

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