Howard Hochman is the RTC correspondent for the Ivy League.

The Aftermath – Princeton 63, Harvard 62

On a day of hoops hysteria and afternoon delights dominated by buzzer-beaters, ESPN live-look ins, and replayed highlights, none were as hysterical or as replayed as Harvard/Princeton. By now, you know the result, have read the front page of your local sports section, and have seen the dagger Doug Davis shot through every Crimson heart. The agate will simply read Princeton 63, Harvard 62. But this game was so much more than that. It was about players on both sides performing brilliantly under pressure, with the stars on both teams shining brightly in a packed and raucous Lee Amphitheater; matching basket for basket down the stretch. Ian Hummer to the hoop for a Princeton one point lead with 37 seconds left matched by a driving lay-up 26 seconds later by Brandyn Curry– who was magnificent- to keep the see-saw moving, setting the stage for Davis. The game will not soon be forgotten. Princeton moves on and is one of those clichéd opponents that “nobody wants to see in the first round” but John Calipari and Kentucky will. The only thing that could have removed the sting for Harvard is an at-large berth that they truly deserved. Instead, the committee rewarded a lot of also-rans from power conferences that inflated their record by playing all the schools with directional names in their home state and on their home court. Tommy Amaker went out and did what the NCAA asks — play a representative pre-conference schedule on the road –George Mason, UConn, Michigan, dancers all. And in fact, Harvard had a better RPI than 14 of the at-large teams selected. A travesty, but then again those other teams have fans who travel and contribute and we all know money talks. So they will play in the NIT and unlike some of the other teams who get the same “honor,” Harvard will show up and play their hearts out. Like Saturday.

NCAA Tournament Preview

Last year, Cornell won its first two tournament games and had become the darling of the country. They were a senior-laden team, dependent on scoring from beyond the arc. Next on tap were the Kentucky Wildcats and their team of NBA first rounders. But they were young. John Calipari had a week to prepare and allowed his team to hear the hype of the Brains vs. Brawn match up. And he convinced his team to play some aggressive D on the perimeter resulting in a Kentucky rout. The committee must have enjoyed last year, as Princeton draws Kentucky in the first round. Feline groovy.

The two teams had one common opponent, Penn, and neither lost. But in a game that kicked off the new year, Penn had the Wildcats on the ropes at Rupp for most of the first half before falling victim by 24. The difference was on the boards. Princeton will not be that overmatched inside thanks to Kareem Maddox and Ian Hummer who can definitely rebound with Josh Harrelson and Terrence Jones. The game may come down to how well the Tigers defend the three-point shooting trio of Brandon Knight, Doron Lamb and Darius Miller. Furthermore, the Wildcats are not deep. Only six play double figure minutes. They are in trouble if either Jones or Knight gets into foul trouble. So here is the recipe: stay close early, play even off the boards, draw some fouls and stop transition. Can be done but a tall order. Let’s go out on a limb here. The Tigers do what Cornell couldn’t, ride the wave of Doug Davis’s heroics, win one for the Ancient Eight and come away with a 68-66 victory.

Final Power Rankings

1. Princeton (12-2, 25-6)–won the title in a playoff game for the ages as chronicled above-and deservingly so; had a spectacular season; a nice core returns, even though Maddox and Dan Mavraides’ graduation will be big shoes to fill. Look for the Tigers to give the Kentucky freshmen all they can handle.

2. Harvard (12-2, 23-6)–as Bob Ryan of the Boston Globe so eloquently put it, “Princeton won, but nobody lost”; heads held high in defeat and truly deserved a spot in the field of 68; will be unanimous pre-season choice for 2011-2012 title with everyone coming back and a top recruiting class. A pre-season top 25?

3. Yale (8-6, 15-13)–Coach Jones thinks they should be one of the favorites next season and he may be right. Mr. Inside/ Mr. Outside, Greg Mangano (see below) and Morgan a formidable duo.” The Game” next year may be on the court instead of the field.

4. Penn (7-7, 13-15)–Underachievers? Perhaps, but they are a fun team to watch and have found a gem in Cartwirght; need to develop an inside presence to compete with the Hummers, Manganos, and Wrights of the world.

5. Columbia (6-8, 15-13)–will return leading scorer Agho and running mate Barbour so immediate respectability; nice first year for Coach Smith, who will look to recapture some of his St.Marys recruiting magic

6. Cornell (6-8, 10-18)–ended the season on an uptick, winning their last three; Coach Bill Courtney developed a system of playing everybody; Chris Wroblewski will be last trace of Big Red dynasty; keep an eye on recruiting class.

7. Brown (4-10, 11-17)–bright spot is their youth, particularly do-it-all guard Sean McGonagill; I like Coach Agel a lot, but with so much of Ivy nucleus returning will be tough to see any noticeable improvement in standings though.

8. Dartmouth (1-13, 5-23)—I wonder how Coach Cormier can keep his kids motivated; no immediate escape from the cellar is imminent; freshman guard Melville looks like a keeper; attracting more fans to the games may be a realistic goal.

The Second Annual Bradley Awards

It is time to honor the best of the brightest…those players, and coach, from the Ivy League who have distinguished themselves during this 2010-2011 basketball season. And the good news is, just about every one of this year’s recipients will be returning next year.

Coach of the Year: Certainly newcomers Kyle Smith at Columbia and Bill Courtney at Cornell appear to be on the right track. And Brown looks they could contend in the near future under Jesse Agel. But this year’s choice came down to the men who lead the two pre-eminent programs–Sydney Johnson of Princeton and Tommy Amaker of Harvard. Both did outstanding jobs and indeed had their teams prepared for the game of the year. However 90% of the country chose Princeton as their preseason choice with their starting team returning intact and two seniors. Harvard, on the other hand, lost POY Jeremy Lin, had a much more inexperienced nucleus, yet ended up with the better record and better RPI. So the Bradley goes to..Tommy Amaker.

Freshman of the Year: As alluded to in our previous column this was perhaps the toughest choice. Miles Cartwright of Penn came out of the gate on fire and perhaps is a future star. Laurent Rivard of Harvard proved invaluable as a sixth man helping the Crimson to a share of the title. But the Bradley goes to Sean McGonagill of Brown. The 6’1 guard from Illinois started every game since his arrival on campus. And he earned the coveted trophy with his versatility. He led the team in minutes played (33.3 per game), assists (5.2 pg), and free throw shooting (82%). He was third on the team in scoring (11.8) and rebounding (4.4). I have a feeling this will not be the last of his Bradleys.

Sixth Man of the Year: This one is almost unfair. Princeton is so well-balanced that they can afford to bring a Player of the Year candidate and one their two most important seniors off the bench. None other than Kareem Maddox. The 6’8 Californian was perhaps their most valuable player but started only four games. Yet he averaged over 30 minutes. The rest of his stats were equally impressive; 13.7 ppg (second on the team and 8^th in the league) on 57% shooting from the field; and 7.0 rebounds per game (4^th in the league). What would the Bradleys be without a Princeton representative?

All-Ivy Team:

• G  Noruwa Agho Columbia – 6’3 Jr. New City, NY–led the league in scoring at 16.8; fifth in assists at 4.3; contributed over four rebounds per game; started every game and played nearly 35 minutes per game
• G  Zack Rosen Penn – 6’1  Jr. Colonia, NJ–led team in scoring (14.6, 4^th in league), minutes played (36. 7, 1st in league), assists ( 5.5, 2^nd in league) and steals (1.3, 6^th in league); defending RTC Ivy Player of the Year as a sophomore hit numerous clutch game winning or tying shots.
• F  Keith Wright Harvard – 6’8 Jr. Suffolk, Va–led team in scoring (14.9, 3^rd in league), rebounding (8.5, 2^nd in league) and in field goal percentage (58.8, 1^st in league); started every game and combined with Kyle Casey to give Crimson tough inside duo.
• F  Ian Hummer Princeton – 6’7 So. Vienna, Va–tough choice over  Jack Eggleston; yet it was Hummer’s all-around play and team success which ultimately gave him the nod ; 7^th in league in scoring (13.9 led team), 6^th in rebounding (6.7), 2^nd in Fg % (55.7%) 4^th in blocks (1.1); the Tigers’ go to guy
• F  Greg Mangano Yale – 6’10 Jr. Orange, Ct.–only Ivy player to average a double/double (16.3 ppg, 10.0 rebounds per game); was within .5 of a point from leading the league in both scoring and rebounding; led league in blocks with three per game; second in the league in shots taken but still shot over 48%; with running mate Austin Morgan, forms perhaps best returning inside/outside threat. And thus…

Greg Mangano is recognized as the 2010-2011 Bradley Award winner as Ivy League Player of the Year.

Defending the Jacket

Last year, we scored a coup, not only winning the RTC Bracket Pool (and the Hickory High letter jacket), but dominating the other two in which we participated. This gives me the right and responsibility to offer my thoughts on this year’s tournament — offered with a caveat; winning is tough, repeating near impossible. I have identified four factors which lead to NCAA success — free throw shooting, rebounding margin, shooting the three and defending it. Last season, Duke was the only team to appear in the top 40 nationally in the four categories. Xavier and St. Mary’s were the only others to appear in three and thus were recommended as likely to outlive their seed. This year, the same analysis provided some eye-opening information.

The eye test, based on watching all season long, has left me with the conclusion that Ohio State is the best team. But OSU appears in only one of the categories- so bye bye Buckeyes. And in fact, this season, NO team ranks in the top 40 in all four categories. But there are three teams in three. Those are Kansas, Arizona, and Texas. And the latter two, unfortunately, are on a collision course for a second round matchup in the West bracket. Arizona has the better numbers. So the Cats advance, knock off Duke in the regional final and advance to play Kansas in the championship game. We will let you take it from there. Let the Madness begin.

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

We finally made it. It’s Selection Sunday and one of the best Championship Weeks ever played concludes today. I’d like to thank any reader out there who has read even just one of these daily features this season. I hope you enjoyed it and maybe even learned something you didn’t know about a team(s) from following Set Your Tivo. All rankings from RTC and all times Eastern.

ACC Championship (at Greensboro, NC): #5 Duke vs. #6 North Carolina – 1 pm on ESPN (*****)

Barnes and the Heels Could Snag a 1-Seed Later Today With a Win

The greatest rivalry in college basketball for the third time this year on the last day of the season? Sign me up. In an ACC year full of mediocrity, the two top dogs stepped up and have successfully found their way to the title game today. As you know, these teams split the regular season series with each winning on their home floor. The rubber match will be in Greensboro today, about an hour west of each campus and right in the heart of Tobacco Road.

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David Ely is an RTC Contributor.

Introduction

You know how ESPN loves doing college basketball marathons? The network put on 24 straight hours of hoops at the beginning of the season, and then ESPN aired four-straight games on MLK Day for your viewing pleasure. Well, why stop with those two days? Monday would have been the perfect day to sit on your coach all afternoon and watch some roundball. TWTW can’t think of a better way to nurse your Super Bowl hangover. Make it happen, ESPN. 

What We Learned

North Carolina’s 20-point loss at Georgia Tech over MLK Weekend might have been the best thing to happen to the Tar Heels this season. Since that embarrassing loss, the ’Heels have ripped off five straight wins in ACC play, outscoring opponents by at least 20 points in the last three. A lot of people will choose to single out Kendall Marshall’s insertion into the starting lineup as the turning point of the season, but it’s been Harrison Barnes’ improved play that’s catapulted UNC into the ranks of NCAA dark horse. Barnes has scored at least 17 points in three consecutive games for the first time in his career, and it’s no coincidence that UNC cruised in all three games. The Tar Heels already boast one of the better post duos with Tyler Zeller and John Henson, now they have the electric scorer they’ve missed since the 2009 title season. 

Is It Too Late For the Wildcats? (AP/N. Majamdar)

Baylor, Butler and Kansas State all went on the road Saturday and came away with mega wins as they attempt to remain in the discussion for NCAA Tournament bids. Baylor landed the most impressive W, riding Perry Jones III to an overtime win at Texas A&M. Butler got a boost with its 12-point win at Horizon League leader Cleveland State, and Kansas State avoided a crippling loss when it eked past Iowa State. It remains to be seen what these wins will do for them in the long run, though, as all three are firmly entrenched on the bubble. The Wildcats have the best RPI of the bunch, checking in at #31, and according to Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology, they appear to be in the best standing with the selection committee as an 11 seed, compared to Baylor (the last team in) and Butler (NIT bound). But anyone who feels secure in trusting Frank Martin’s team hasn’t watched any hoops this year.

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

On paper, this isn’t the best weekend of games. However, this is college basketball where anything can happen. You just never know what could happen and it may end up being a thrilling couple of days, anyway. All rankings from RTC and all times Eastern.

West Virginia @ #12 Villanova – 12 pm Saturday on ESPN (****)

Yet another big game in the Big East features two teams tied for third place at 6-3 in league play. The winner will tie second place Notre Dame, just a game and a half behind first place Pittsburgh. West Virginia has won seven of nine games and rebounding has been a big reason why. The Mountaineers have not been out-rebounded by an opponent since a New Year’s Day game at Marquette, plus their defense has been solid. West Virginia has scored only 58 PPG over their last four games (three of them without leading scorer Casey Mitchell) but has held opponents to an average of 50 PPG over the same stretch, culminating in holding Seton Hall to 44 points on Wednesday. Bob Huggins’ team is #5 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage but will have to bring their A-game on the glass against Villanova. The Wildcats rank 20^th in keeping opponents off the offensive boards and were led by the interior duo of Antonio Pena and Mouphtaou Yarou in their most recent win over Marquette. They combined for 32/15 and have been huge factors this season as Jay Wright isn’t counting exclusively on his guards to win games anymore. Although West Virginia has rebounded the ball extremely well of late, they still rank only #291 in opponent’s offensive rebounding percentage, allowing teams to grab 35.6% of their misses. Villanova will likely miss a lot of long range shots against West Virginia’s #2 ranked three point defense (allowing 27%) so offensive rebounding will be important for both teams, especially the Wildcats, in this game. Coach Huggins used 6’7 John Flowers on Seton Hall’s Jeremy Hazell in their last game and he successfully shut down the Pirates’ gunner. Might we see the same thing on Villanova’s Corey Stokes? It’s a good possibility, though Flowers may be needed inside more often to double Pena and Yarou. Flowers leads the Big East in blocked shots and needs to have another good defensive game against a Villanova team that can score in bunches. The Wildcats score 25.6% of their points from the foul line and attempted 33 free throws against Marquette. Villanova is very difficult to beat when they get to the stripe because they shoot 78% and get there so often. Dribble penetration from Corey Fisher and Maalik Wayns leads to good looks inside and plenty of free throw opportunities. West Virginia has to do a good job defending the dribble drive and Kevin Jones will be a key player in doing so. Jones is a taller player who, along with Flowers, will form the second line of defense if the Wildcat guards are able to get into the lane. Jones is also a warrior on the glass, going for 13/12 in his last game. With the status of Casey Mitchell still uncertain, West Virginia will have to stick to typical “Huggy-ball” more than ever, and that’s physical defense and great rebounding. Villanova is 16-0 when they score at least 70 points but only 2-4 when they fail to do so. With the way West Virginia is rebounding and playing defense right now, it’s very possible that this game could be in the 50’s or 60’s. We’re going to go with the upset and take the Mountaineers on the road in this game.

#10 Kentucky @ Florida – 9 pm Saturday on ESPN (****)

With a win on Saturday night, Florida can really create some separation between themselves and Kentucky. With a win against the Wildcats, Florida will hold a two and a half game lead over UK and remain ahead of Tennessee, a team they beat on the road already. Quite simply, a win here puts Florida in a commanding position in the SEC East. Of course, that won’t be so easy against the nation’s fourth ranked team in eFG% defense. The Gators have won 9 of 11 games but Kentucky will be their toughest test since a meeting with Ohio State back in November. The Wildcats are coming off a loss at Ole Miss earlier this week, a game in which they committed 18 turnovers and didn’t defend the three point line well at all. Freshman point guard Brandon Knight had six of those turnovers and needs to do a better job tonight. Young teams can’t turn it over and expect to win on the road no matter how talented they are and Kentucky is finding out the hard way. With a 2-4 record in true road games, the Wildcats need to grow up quick if they want to play deep into March. Knight needs to create shots for himself and others, taking advantage of UK’s 40% shooting from deep. With Doron Lamb shooting the ball very well recently, Kentucky has plenty of threats to win this game. A key battle in this game will be at the forward spot as Kentucky’s freshman Terrence Jones goes up against Florida senior Chandler Parsons. Jones averages 18/9 and had 22/12 at Ole Miss while Parsons has been on an absolute tear on the glass of late. Controlling the boards will be critically important in a game that could be all about pace. The Gators would like to slow the game down and work in the half court while the Wildcats are comfortable at a quicker pace. To keep the tempo in their favor, Florida has to win the rebounding battle and make shots. The Gators are #10 in offensive rebounding percentage but the matchup between Jones and Parsons, as well as Vernon Macklin and Josh Harrellson at the center position, will likely determine who controls the glass in this game. If Harrellson can shut down Macklin (Festus Ezeli of Vanderbilt did a good job of this in the last game), the onus will be on Parsons to carry the Gators yet again. With Erving Walker hitting only 7 of his last 33 threes (21%), Florida will work the ball inside even more than they already do. The Gators get 56.8% of their points from two point range but will face the #4 interior defense in the country. Kentucky allows opponents to shoot only 41% from two point range while Florida is making 50.5% of their two point shots. This should be a physical game and whoever controls the interior will likely come out on top. Despite their road woes, we think John Calipari’s team will be ready to play tonight and hand the Gators their fourth home loss, disappointing the big crowd sure to be at the O-Dome for ESPN Game Day.

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Jared Quillen is the RTC correspondent for the SEC.

A Look Back

Monday on the SEC Basketball Coaches Teleconference, Mississippi State coach Rick Stansbury took some exception to the idea that there is a trend with the East playing much better than the West.  He mentioned that in his time at Mississippi State, his teams have gone 41-41 against the East and 10-8 in SEC conference tournament play.  Let me start by saying that anyone that can that quickly pull up those numbers probably has a little bit of a chip on his shoulder.  But now, let’s just take a look at the numbers.

Last year, the SEC West finished 39-57 against SEC East.  This year in head-to-head games, the West is 2-4 against the East.  A week ago, Auburn managed a mere six points in the first half against LSU.  Alabama, a team picked to finish third of six in the West, lost to St Peter’s early in the season.  The East currently has a 74.7% winning percentage with a 9.5 point scoring margin to the West’s 59.2% and 4.6 margin.

The East has quality wins against Florida State, Kansas State, Washington, Notre Dame, Louisville, Villanova, Pittsburgh, North Carolina and Marquette.  The West has beaten um, well, Auburn got a lucky one against Florida State.

Ed. Note: There has also been some notable player movement recently around the SEC: Former Mississippi State sophomore Twanny Beckham will try to find increased playing time at Kentucky and could be eligible as soon as next January (we’re not sure how transferring to Kentucky will net Beckham more time amongst a sea of stud freshmen next season than the 15.7 minutes per game he earned under Stansbury, but if it makes him happy, why not?). Beckham’s former teammate, maligned Bulldog Elgin Bailey, dismissed after last month’s infamous scuffle with Renardo Sidney, will hope to start fresh at Southeast Louisiana, and suspended Kentucky Wildcat Darnell Dodson is headed to Southern Mississippi. Lastly, Auburn will welcome forward Noel Johnson from Clemson. While none of these players are necessarily high-impact types, hopefully they will thrive for their new schools.

Power Rankings

1. Kentucky (14-3, 2-1) – The Wildcats lost one last week to Georgia and responded by taking out their frustrations on SEC cellar dwellers Auburn and LSU.  The Cats beat Auburn 78-54 in a midweek contest in which Terrence Jones set the Kentucky single game freshman scoring record by coming off the bench and scoring 35 points.  That record of course was only 24 days old, having previously been set by Doron Lamb, who also came off the bench to score 32 against Winthrop.
2. Georgia (13-3, 2-1) – After beating Kentucky at home last week, Georgia lost to Vanderbiltin a game that was close the whole way.  Going  5-21 from three makes it hard to win in the SEC East, and that really is the Achilles heel for the Bulldogs.  They are currently last in the SEC in three-point shooting at 31 percent.  The Dawgs followed that loss with a 98-76 thumping of Mississippi.  The poor point shooting will cost Georgia in close ones, but for now they’re winning, having gone 10-1 since losing two straight to Notre Dame and Temple.
3. Florida (13-4, 2-1) – Both Mississippi and Tennessee gave Florida tougher games than they should have and then Florida lost to South Carolina.  Still, head coach Billy Donovan said on Monday that he feels his team is still getting better and playing better defense.  No worries though, they probably won’t need it this week against Auburn.
4. Vanderbilt (12-4, 1-2) Vanderbilt has been disappointing of late, having dropped two of their last three to South Carolina and Tennessee with a win over Georgia sandwiched between.  I think this speaks to the competitiveness of the East.  Vanderbilt should make quick work of reeling Mississippi this week and then take on a surging St. Mary’s team that has won 10 straight.
5. South Carolina (11-5, 2-1) The Gamecocks held Vanderbilt’s Festus Ezelito only seven points on two of seven shooting and fouled him out in overtime.  South Carolina got the win by holding the Commodores to only 39 percent shooting, but the problem is that the Cocks followed that up by laying an egg in Tuscaloosa, only scoring 47 points in a ten-point loss to Alabama.  The win against Florida in Gainesville is a good sign however.
6. Arkansas (12-4, 2-1) A close win over Tennessee at home, a close loss to LSU away and a close win over Alabama at home.  A good week, but not enough to get overly optimistic about.  The Razorbacks have a tough week with games at dangerous South Carolina and still improving Florida.  Going 0-2 this week is not unlikely.  Going 1-1 would be good, 2-0 makes Arkansas the clear favorite to win the West.
7. Tennessee (11-6, 1-2) I think a lot of people became very optimistic that this very talented, seriously under-performing team had turned a corner after beating Memphis 104-84 in Knoxville, but this is not your John Calipari’s Memphis team and it should be remembered that this game was just a shooting match where both teams shot better than 45 percent from the field.  Tennessee found losses to Arkansas and Florida and a close win over Vanderbilt.  This week, the Volunteers face Georgia and Connecticut on the road and could very well find themselves 0-2 on the week and 1-3 in SEC play.  Making the NCAA Tournament is looking tougher and tougher.
8. Alabama (10-7, 2-1) Alabama looks to be getting its season back on track after an embarrassing early season by starting 2-0 in SEC play.  The Arkansas loss is nothing to be ashamed of – no one has won in Fayetteville this season.  This week, Alabama, the league leader in points allowed per game at 56.8, and Kentucky, the league leader in points scored per game at 79.9, face off in Tuscaloosa.
9. Mississippi State (10-7, 2-1) I would like to say that Mississippi is playing much better now that Renardo Sidney and Dee Bost are finally on the court together, but the Bulldogs lost to Alabama to begin conference play and had to pull out a close one over in-state rival Mississippi before beating Auburn by 21 at home. But honestly, who hasn’t beaten Auburn by 20?
10. Mississippi (12-6, 0-3) The Rebels need to find a cause because it’s getting ugly in Oxford.  Ole Miss was tabbed to finish second in the West and is now 0-3.  Not bloody likely at this point.  Three straight losses is bad for any team.  When you lose by 22 on your home court, the fans stop showing up.
11. LSU (10-8, 2-1) The Tigers held Auburn to only six points in the first half.  Yeah, six. Then they beat Arkansas in a 56-53 snoozer.  At 2-0, things seemed to be looking up for LSU, but then the Tigers were humiliated 82-44 at Rupp Arena and everyone remembered that LSU lost to North Texas by 20 on their home court and is only 4-6 in their last 10.
12. Auburn (7-10, 0-3) Well this is a familiar place.  The game against LSU was the low point of the season for the Tigers who are suffering through a tough season of injuries, unexpected departures and ineligible players.  A very tough start for coach Tony Barbee, but these are the cards he was dealt.  I wonder if he’s questioning that advice that long-time friend and former boss John Calipari gave him encouraging him to take the Auburn job.  Given some time, I think he will do well.  One quick note, Frankie Sullivan came back from injury and Auburn won four straight including a win over Florida State, the team that just dealt the evil Blue Devils their first loss.  He goes down again and Auburn loses three straight.

A Look Ahead

Tennessee at Georgia and Tennessee at Connecticut are intriguing games to me because of the confusing story that is the Tennessee Volunteers.  I want to see if this team that can beat anyone or lose to anyone, mostly the latter of late, can pull out a couple of good wins to follow up their come-back win over Vanderbilt.

Kentucky at Alabama – I think at this point with Kentucky as the only team in the top 25 and playing very well of late, a loss to Georgia notwithstanding, you have to mark all Kentucky games on your calendar, particularly in this match-up where Alabama’s league leading point per game defense will be tested by the highest scoring offense in the league.

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

A really good schedule awaits college basketball fans today on your New Year’s Eve. The Battle of the Bluegrass gets things going right away with an early noon tip, a game tailor made for Gus Johnson. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

#12 Kentucky @ Louisville — 12 pm on CBS (*****)

Louisville will be shorthanded in this game but is favored according to the Vegas odds. The Cardinals, still without Jared Swopshire, will also be missing the services of Rakeem Buckles and Mike Marra this afternoon. Still, this is a game you must watch with Gus Johnson on the call. It is a unique rivalry that doesn’t get enough press and has only heated up with the addition of John Calipari and the switch of Rick Pitino from Kentucky blue to Louisville red. It started almost 100 years ago in 1913 but the teams have only met 41 times prior to today with Kentucky holding a 27-14 edge. These teams did not meet for 24 years from 1959 until an elite eight NCAA Tournament game on March 26, 1983. They have met every year since then with UK leading 18-11 in the modern era. One interesting fact is that Kentucky has never failed to win at least two games in a row after winning one throughout the entire history of this series. With the Wildcats on a one game winning streak entering the game today, that statistic, though ultimately meaningless, would suggest a UK win. Expect this game to feature a lot of threes, a big part of each team’s offense. Kentucky actually has five guys who can knock down a triple, much more than the average team. Doron Lamb and Preston Knowles are the big shooters for their respective teams with Lamb being the better of the two so far this year. The freshman has connected on 54% of his treys including a seven for eight performance against Winthrop, a large part of Kentucky’s #13 three point percentage. Knowles is Louisville’s leading scorer and a good defender who teams with Peyton Siva to really disrupt opponents on the defensive end. That will be a big factor against Kentucky point guard Brandon Knight, averaging almost four turnovers per game. Rick Pitino loves the zone press so expect a lot of trapping and aggressive on-ball defense from the Cardinals, trying to get Knight out of a rhythm and make him turnover-prone. As a whole, Kentucky takes remarkably good care of the ball with only 11 turnovers as a team. Calipari needs a good point guard to run his dribble drive offense and Knight is often the key to their success. He had an awful game in a loss to Connecticut and fouled out after committing six turnovers in UK’s loss to North Carolina. In the front court, Kentucky has the best player on the floor in Terrence Jones. The 6’8 freshman can score from almost anywhere on the floor and uses his superior athleticism effectively to create space. Another T.J., Terrence Jennings, has to have a good game defensively for Louisville. He’s a good shot blocker and must neutralize Jones inside. Despite their reliance on the three pointer, the Cardinals get a lot of points inside as well, the seventh best two point shooting team in the country. With Buckles out however, Louisville may turn even more towards the trey in order to win. Kentucky lacks a true scoring center as Josh Harrellson rebounds well but doesn’t look to score much, attempting just four field goals per game. Expect Kyle Kuric to step up in the absence of Marra and Buckles. He’s played more minutes lately and scored 25 points against Morgan State on Monday. Quite simply, this game is going to be a war. The fans hate each other, the coaches do too and even the players got into it right away last year. Most rivalry games are close and despite Louisville’s personnel issues, we expect this one to be as well. However, depth could rear its ugly head if the Cardinals get into foul trouble. Louisville fouls a lot and Pitino has to ensure that doesn’t become an issue. Even though they’re on the road, Kentucky is the better team and has to get the edge here. Take the Wildcats and the points today.

#13 Minnesota @ #18 Michigan State – 4 pm on Big Ten Network (****)

A critical game for both teams, the loser will face some tough questions going forward. With a loss today, Minnesota faces the real possibility of starting Big Ten play at 1-3 with a game at Ohio State next Sunday and Indiana in between. Michigan State would drop to 8-5 overall with a loss today, making Monday’s game at Northwestern a huge one for the Spartans. For Tom Izzo’s team, the three point line is critical in this matchup. Minnesota doesn’t defend it well at all (#260) and the Spartans shoot 40% behind a trio of capable long range bombers. Durrell Summers leads Michigan State in scoring and is arguably their best shooter from deep while Kalin Lucas and Korie Lucious can also knock down the trifecta. Tubby Smith likes to play a zone but that may hurt the Gophers in this matchup. Unless Minnesota extends their defense beyond the line, Michigan State can easily shoot right over it. Of course when you extend a zone there will be holes inside. Minnesota’s big men must lay down the law in the paint and force MSU to beat them from the outside. A strong defensive game will really limit the Spartans offensively and turn this into a rebounding battle, one Minnesota should feel confident in their ability to win. Michigan State has not been a vintage Izzo team in terms of defense and rebounding, a bad sign against a tall and talented Minnesota team. Trevor Mbakwe could be deadly against the Spartans today with his quickness and long arms around the tin. With Mbakwe inside and Blake Hoffarber outside, the Gophers will keep Michigan State on their toes all game long. Al Nolen must play better for Minnesota. Wisconsin shut him down on Tuesday night held the Minnesota offense in check en route to a victory. Turnovers will again be the story for the Spartans, averaging 16 per game. Extra possessions only enhance the Gophers chances. Michigan State looked awful against Syracuse and the Gopher bigs are even taller than Syracuse’s. Despite the KenPom prediction and the Vegas odds, we’re going against the grain and feel this game will come right down to the very end. This is anyone’s ballgame in East Lansing this afternoon.

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For the past two years we’ve taken a look at what NCAA basketball would be like if the powers that be decided to adopt the antediluvian BCS system. In 2009 it would have yielded a championship game between UNC and Louisville along with several other less desirable match-ups. In 2010 it would have led to a championship game between Kansas and Kentucky, which could have been an interesting match-up, but both teams showed severe flaws that led to their elimination well short of the final Monday night game in April.

This season we decided that we would expand things a bit by offering our RTC/BCS college basketball rankings using a formula similar to what they use to determine the BCS rankings in college football on a weekly basis. As the season progresses, you can see how certain teams rise from relative obscurity and into the BCS picture while other teams fall from prestigious BCS games down to what would be the equivalent of pre-New Year’s Day games. With conference play about to start we thought that this would be the ideal time to start looking at the potential match-ups.

We kept the same basic rules as we used in previous years:

1. We are following the BCS Football guidelines as closely as possible, but we replaced the Notre Dame rule with the Duke rule since they both have sketchy TV contracts (Notre Dame with NBC and Duke with ESPN).
2. The AP and ESPN/USA Today polls are used as the human polls and ESPN.com’s InsiderRPI, KenPom.com, and Sagarin’s ratings as the computer polls. We are not including six computer rankings and dropping the highest and lowest like they do in the BCS because frankly we are not familiar with six reputable computer ranking systems. If you know of any other computer rankings leave a comment below and we might include them in the next installment of our rankings.
3. We used the traditional BCS calculations for determining each team’s score weighing the two human polls and the combined computer poll average as 1/3 of a team’s total score each.

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David Ely is an RTC Contributor

It’s that time of year again: Conference season. UConn and Pittsburgh opened up the Big East slate Monday night with the first of what will be many highly-anticipated conference matchups over the next couple of months. It won’t be much longer until we get Pitt-Georgetown, Duke–Maryland, Washington–Washington State, Ohio State–Purdue and plenty over other mouth-watering games. It’s definitely a more appealing prospect than watching Kentucky pummel Winthrop or Texas beat down North Florida.

What We Learned

Taylor & Pitt Easily Ripped UConn

• It might have been wise for Jim Calhoun to schedule some true road games for his young UConn squad before its Big East opener at Pittsburgh. The Huskies certainly played as though they weren’t prepared for what was waiting for them in the amped up Peterson Events Center. But honestly, there was little reason to think that this game was going to be anything other than a wakeup call for UConn. The Huskies boast seven freshmen, and only three players in its rotation that had ever played at that venue. No surprises here that the Panthers jumped out to an early double-digit lead and cruised to a 78-63 win. At least the Huskies can take solace in the fact that they don’t have to face Pittsburgh again until possibly the Big East Tournament. The Panthers’ length along the perimeter makes them a tough matchup for Kemba Walker, who needed 27 shots and 11 free throws to score 31 points against the likes of Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker.
• After a less-than-stellar start to its season, in which Butler got smoked by Louisville and lost in overtime to Evansville en route to a 4-4 record through its first eight games, it now looks like Brad Stevens’ squad has righted the ship. The Bulldogs have won five in a row and just beat Washington State on Christmas Day to win the Diamond Head Classic. Key to the Bulldogs recent surge has been their improved play on the defensive end. Butler has not allowed more than 68 points since Mississippi Valley St. put up 71 on Dec. 11, and in their last four wins, the Bulldogs have allowed their opponents to shoot the following percentages: Stanford, 31.4%; Utah, 39.6%; Florida State, 38%; and Washington State, 40.7%. The Bulldogs’ defensive numbers still aren’t great, they rank 48^th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings and they’re #272 in turnover %, but they’re on their way back to being a squad that can win games on the defensive end. As the schedule shifts to Horizon League play, the Bulldogs again are a safe bet to claim another conference championship.
• When we last checked in with Tennessee, the Vols just had erased most of the momentum gained from a win over Pittsburgh with a home loss to Oakland (nothing to be embarrassed about, but not what we like to see from one of our top-10 teams). As it turns out, that loss to the Golden Grizzlies was a harbinger for what turned out to be a very unhappy holiday season for Bruce Pearl. The Vols lost their next two games, both to unranked opponents. Tennessee lost 49-48 to a Charlotte squad without leading scored Shamari Spears, who was kicked off the team a few days earlier. Then the Vols lost again by one point, this time to USC. To make matters worse, their win to halt the three-game skid did little to make people believe the Vols aren’t in the middle of a tailspin. Tennessee blew a 13-point lead to Belmont and needed a layup from Scotty Hopson with 5.7 left to escape with a 66-65 win. Despite his last-second bucket, Hopson’s recent play has been a major reason for the Vols’ struggles. Hopson scored a combined 28 points his losses to Oakland, Charlotte and USC on 8-31 shooting. He rebounded to score 19 points against Belmont, but he’s still suffering from a shooting slump. Hopson is 2-14 from three in his last four games.
• TWTW isn’t a huge fan of making sweeping proclamations before conference play begins, nor do we like to divulge its national championship favorite until the most opportune moment. (Personally, TWTW prefers to wait until about 10 seconds left in the title game to announce who we think will win it all). But if TWTW was forced to name a team it would be Ohio State. UConn, Duke, Syracuse and Kansas are all fine choices, but there’s something about the Buckeyes that separates them from the pack. Everything starts with Jared Sullinger, who is first on the team in points (17.5) and rebounds (10.1) and is the clubhouse leader for national freshman of the year. Sullinger has owned the paint from Day 1 and has shown a knack for dominating games like few other big men this year (see his 40/13 against IUPUI and his 30/19 against South Carolina). What’s remarkable about Sullinger, though, has been his ability to avoid foul trouble. Sullinger hasn’t fouled out of one game this season and only has one game (his first) in which he had four infractions. But OSU isn’t just limited to Sullinger. The Buckeyes boast five players who average at least 10 points a game. They can beat you just as easily outside as they can inside with shooters like David Lighty and Jon Diebler, who shoot 45.5% and 47.4% from three, respectively. And freshman Deshaun Thomas is the kind of athletic wing that can score in bunches off the bench. Could Ohio State be better without Evan Turner? TWTW thinks so.
• People wondered how Kansas would be able to integrate freshman phenom Josh Selby into its rotation once he returned from his NCAA-imposed nine-game suspension, the question being whether Selby’s presence would disrupt the Jayhawks’ chemistry from their 9-0 start. After two games, two wins and two electric performances by Selby, it’s obvious there was never a need to worry whether his addition would be anything but welcome. In his debut against USC, Selby scored 21 points and drilled a go-ahead three with 26 seconds ago to lead the Jayhawks to 70-68 win. There was no need for any late heroics in his second game, but Selby still made his presence felt, to the tune of 18 points and a 3-4 shooting night from beyond the arc. Selby’s already established himself as one of Kansas’ go-to scorers, and the fact that Bill Self had Selby not only on the court in the waning seconds against USC but shows how important Selby will be to any title run for KU.

Media Blackout

The three pieces of news to know if you’ve been living in complete isolation all week.

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The Lede.  If you’re anything like us, and we suspect that you are, you spent tonight stationed in front of your television (hopefully HD) for anywhere between four to six hours, munching on way too many Christmas cookies, filling your stomach with eggnog or some similar milky concoction, and watching game after game of college hoops.  Now Texas, now Michigan State and Illinois!  On, Mizzou!  On Gonzaga, on Kansas and Cal! To the top of the polls!  To the top of the key!  Now get out on the break!  Fill those lanes!  Throw it down, all! It was Holiday Hoops at its best this evening, with several marquee matchups on the tube and nothing else on our agenda other than to nod knowingly when the Significant Other Unit started complaining about finishing the shopping.  This guy pretty much nailed it when he said that having the holiday spirit combined with some great hoops on the TV tonight equaled one incomparable thing: bliss.

This is a Snapshot Image of MSU's Evening (DFP/J. Gonzalez)

Your Watercooler Moment. What the Hell is Wrong With Michigan State? Nothing.  The Spartans are who they are.  They were never the second-best team in America — not this year, not last year, nor the year before.  In explaining why there’s nothing wrong with them, we got a little word-happy and decided to turn it into a separate post, which is located here.  Just remember that March basketball is a different animal than December basketball and that Izzo knows and understands this, and you’ll be fine.

Tonight’s Quick Hits…

• Whelliston’s Red Line Upset Record.  The Mid-Majority’s record of what he calls “red line upsets” was equaled tonight with ten teams from mid-major leagues defeating major-conference teams.  The Las Vegas Classic was particularly inspiring for the little guys, as New Mexico dropped Colorado and Northern Iowa got past Indiana.  The others: North Texas over LSU, Siena over Georgia Tech, Dayton over Seton Hall, Cleveland State over South Florida, Seattle over Virginia, Furman over South Carolina, Green Bay over Wyoming, Butler over Utah, and Northern Arizona over Air Force (note: Whelliston considers the Mountain West a major conference).  And nice representation among the power leagues, with the MWC dropping three games and the ACC, Big East and SEC grabbing two a piece.  Shockingly, the Pac-10 had none tonight (and yes, Oregon State played — see below).
• Tristan Thompson.  The 6’8 freshman forward was seemingly everywhere for Texas tonight, dropping 17 points and grabbing 15 boards (six offensive) against the typically beefy Michigan State front line.  He’s had his ups and downs this season, but tonight was his best performance of the year, and if Rick Barnes can convince this human pogo stick to crash the glass like this on a nightly basis, Texas suddenly becomes a darkhorse Final Four candidate this year.
• Jordanesque.  Coming off the bench nursing a sprained ankle to hit several key FTs down the stretch to get a big road win?  That’s what Marcus Jordan did tonight at UMass in a tight contest that could have gone either way, the first such exposure for UCF as a nationally-ranked team.  We’re not going to oversell this — after all, he only scored seven points in fifteen minutes — but UCF is turning into one of the better stories of this college basketball season, and a large part of it due to Heir Jordan.

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

Two clashes featuring SEC East schools headline tonight’s slate, plus we have a couple interesting west coast games later tonight. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

#24 Vanderbilt @ #15 Missouri – 9 pm on ESPNU (****)

Vandy's Festus Ezeli is Playing Great This Year

Vanderbilt has flown under the radar for the most part but they’ve now been recognized and cracked our RTC Top 25 this week. Kevin Stallings seems to produce a solid program every year in Nashville, winning at least 20 games in five of the past seven seasons. Vandy is 7-1, their only loss coming by three to West Virginia in Puerto Rico. The Commodores knocked off North Carolina to finish third in that tournament, the first win in a five-game winning streak since the WVU game. Vanderbilt is a solid defensive club that also likes to play at a quick pace, something they’ll see a lot of from their opponent tonight. Missouri loves the pressure defense and fast pace, ranking #14 in tempo. Mizzou is a prolific offensive team because of all the extra possessions they create, averaging 85 PPG on 48% shooting. The Tigers love to force turnovers (#8 in defensive turnover percentage) and should get quite a few against a Vanderbilt team ranked #226 in turnover percentage, but defense has been a struggle for them. Missouri is ranked in the 200’s in effective field goal percentage against, three and two point defense as well as opponents free throws per field goals meaning they foul a lot. Mike Anderson’s team also gives the ball away an average of 15 times per contest, less than they force but still a cause for concern. Aside from the great game against Georgetown last week, Missouri hasn’t been tested by a strong opponent. They were down early against the Hoyas and it was interesting to look at the box score and see the minutes break down for the Mizzou players. Anderson stuck with his starters, playing them for 202 of the 225 (90%) available minutes in the game. While it’s inconclusive, that may have resulted in lots of tired legs towards the end of regulation and certainly in the overtime session. Michael Dixon and Marcus Denmon anchor the Tiger back court. Dixon takes great care of the ball, averaging 2.56 assists for every turnover, and will match up against Brad Tinsley (9/5/5), also a good distributor. Denmon is Anderson’s biggest three point threat, hitting 56% of his treys this season. Denmon against Vanderbilt’s John Jenkins will be a great matchup to watch. Jenkins, one of the best three point shooters in the nation last season at 48%, struggled early but has hit 14-29 (48%) over his last four games, right on his number from last year. Overall he’s still at 38% but leads the team in scoring at 19 PPG. Jenkins struggled in Vandy’s last game against Belmont but expect him to be fired up and ready to go against a guy like Denmon. The Commodores need a good outing from Jenkins to be able to win but they also have a secondary deep threat in Jeffery Taylor, something Missouri doesn’t have at this time with their other shooters struggling a bit. As a team, Vanderbilt attempts an average of 21 three’s a game. Another great matchup will occur in the paint between Mizzou’s Ricardo Ratliffe and Vandy’s Festus Ezeli. Ezeli has three inches and 15 pounds on Ratliffe but the Missouri forward is more athletic and can move the Nigerian center around. Ezeli averages 13/8 on 67% FG while blocking two shots a game. Ratliffe will have his hands full but should be able to draw fouls with his superior athleticism. With Ezeli in the fold, Vanderbilt has a rebounding advantage and they do a great job keeping their opponents off the offensive boards. That’ll be important against a Missouri team that’s always looking for extra shots and possessions. Should this game come down to free throws, advantage Vandy. The Commodores shoot 76% from the line as a team led by Jenkins’ 91%. Vanderbilt can definitely win this game but it’ll be tough in the raucous environment of Mizzou Arena. While this game probably won’t be as good as the Mizzou/Georgetown game, expect a great one in Columbia this evening.

SEC/Big East Invitational: #21 Kentucky vs. #22 Notre Dame (in Louisville, KY) – 9:30 pm on ESPN (****)

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