RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every week until Madness ensues.

Another week down, another Bubble Watch update, this time a day early…

ACC

Locks: Duke has rebounded nicely from their slip-up in Raleigh last Wednesday with two quality wins at Clemson and vs. Florida State. The Blue Devils appear destined to run the table at home and only have two difficult, yet winnable, road dates remaining at North Carolina and at Maryland. 11-5 in the ACC seems like a worse-case scenario for Duke, and even that record may be enough to win the league and garner a top-three seed in March.

Should be in: Wake Forest’s RPI has slowly but surely climbed into the 20-range heading into tonight’s important game at Georgia Tech. Even with a loss tonight, the Deacons next six ACC games (three road trips are at Virginia, Virginia Tech and NC State) are all very winnable. I wouldn’t completely eliminate Wake from the ACC title race if Ish Smith and Al-Farouq Aminu continue to play so well. Georgia Tech sits at a pedestrian 3-3 in the ACC but did defeat Duke and the Yellow Jackets have a chance to pick up another quality in-conference win tonight against Wake. Paul Hewitt’s team shouldn’t get too comfortable, though, with a challenging road slate still ahead. Florida State plays a crucial game at Boston College on Saturday. It’s a team that Noles should beat, but judging from their loss earlier in ACC play to NC State in Tallahassee and over the course of Leonard Hamilton’s coaching tenure, that doesn’t always equal victory. Lose to the Eagles and Florida State begins to trend towards the bubble.

On the bubble: Clemson still finds themselves on the right side of the bubble picture, but the Tigers are moving closer to the 9/10 seed line than 4/5 with their recent three-game losing skid. Luckily for Clemson, four of their next five are inside the friendly confines of Littlejohn Coliseum with their only road game at Virginia Tech. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Tigers reel off five consecutive in the win column here and firmly establish their bid. Maryland leads the ACC with a 4-1 mark but have benefited from a hospitable schedule. It becomes much more challenging right away for the Terps with two on the road at Clemson and Florida State. Split those two and the Terrapins remain in the field. The most crucial win of the week may have been North Carolina dispatching rival NC State in what could have been a disastrous outcome for the psyche of that basketball team. The Heels welcome Virginia to the Dean Dome next, but check out the next three: @Virginia Tech, @Maryland and vs. Duke. Frankly, neither 3-0 nor 0-3 would totally shock me.

Booker vital for the Tigers NCAA chances

On the fringe: Virginia Tech is going to have to win a lot of basketball games to overcome their #76 RPI and #270 SOS, two stats currently acting as a firm anchor on Tech’s NCAA hopes. Their next two roadies at Virginia and Miami both need to be won for the Hokies to squirm their way back into the field. It won’t be easy, though, as Virginia has knocked off Georgia Tech and Miami has beaten Wake Forest in their respective home buildings. Much like Virginia Tech, those teams desperately need wins and quickly.

Big East

Locks: The five locks at the top of the premiere conference in the land remain firmly entrenched in the field. This pack is led by Villanova at a sparkling 8-0 in the Big East. The reason why I favor Syracuse to win the league in the end is the clear scheduling advantage for the Orange. While the Wildcats have to travel to Georgetown, West Virginia, Pittsburgh and Syracuse, the Orange only must go to D.C. and their next most challenging road games are at fringe-NCAA teams Cincinnati and Louisville. Regardless, both are clearly locks and #1-seed contenders. West Virginia picked up a bounce-back win Saturday over Ohio State and, despite their point guard woes, appear destined for a top-three seed. They have two great opportunities ahead with Pitt and Villanova coming to Morgantown. Despite a two-loss week, Pittsburgh remains safe. After a game at rival West Virginia on February 3, Pitt doesn’t play another NCAA team on the road the rest of the way unless Notre Dame makes it, plus they have that win at Syracuse in their back pocket. Georgetown was thumped at Syracuse Monday, but they’re more than fine. Beating Duke on Saturday would be enormous as far as seeding and portfolios are concerned.

Should be in: Just when you think Connecticut is back, they have the ultimate letdown performance at Providence yesterday where shooting and turnovers woes re-emerged. Still, the Huskies have an RPI in the 20-range and have played the most difficult schedule in the nation. Connecticut also doesn’t have a true road win in their portfolio this season with their next opportunity coming February 1 at Louisville.

Jerome Dyson's maddening inconsistency has drawn the ire of his coach

On the bubble: Louisville beat Cincinnati in an important bubble duel Sunday, but the Bearcats were in my bracket that same night while the Cardinals were left out because Cincy has a better overall resume. In fact, that very win might have been the best to date for Louisville this season. They absolutely must beat Connecticut at home and avoid an upset bid at St. John’s to re-emerge in the bracket. It’s fair to pontificate that Cincinnati peaked at Maui and their collapse at St. John’s certainly stings, but the Bearcats still have a decent chance with a #49 RPI and a #29 SOS. Their rematch at Notre Dame on February 4 looms large. Seton Hall carried home wins over Pitt, Louisville and Cincinnati into the back end of my last bracket. If they can go 1-2 on their upcoming three-game swing through USF, Villanova and Pitt, the Pirates may be able to earn a bid with a favorable schedule the rest of the way.

On the fringe: Could Notre Dame be staring at 9-4 in the Big East when they travel to Louisville on February 17? It’s entirely possible with their next five games at Rutgers, vs. Cincinnati, vs. South Florida, at Seton Hall and vs. St. John’s. Even if they just stand at 8-5, that’s still 8-5 in the #1 RPI conference. Still, they finish with a difficult last five and the quality wins are not there, meaning it’ll be difficult for the Irish to make the tournament.

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1. Did you guys hear about that #1 team whom President Obama called yesterday to congratulate?  Boy, it sure would suck if the man with the Midas touch somehow jinxed them, wouldn’t it?  As we tweeted last night… Because of tonight’s events, with 0% of precincts reporting, I believe CNN just called Kentucky for the GOP in the 2012 election. Sounds about right, eh?
2. You may not remember this exercise, but as part of the season preview over at Vegas Watch, we pitched in on an analysis of each BCS conference team + a few others using the 2008-09 Pomeroy ratings and manually adjusting each team based on returnees and recruiting classes.  Here are some of our notable misses that we overshot — UNC, Washington, Iowa, Auburn, LSU, Oregon State, UCLA and Oklahoma.  Coming next will be some of the teams we undershot.
3. Is Friday night’s game between Harvard and Cornell in Ithaca, NY, the game of the year in college basketball?  The WSJ thinks it might be.
4. Stewart Mandel is back from football to ask where all the great hoops dynasties have gone?  Not sure how much we agree with this assessment, though.  Carolina and UCLA are clearly down, but Kentucky and Kansas are clearly up.  There’s always a power vacuum and someone can fill it (usually one of the traditional powers).
5. BYU will ‘go pink‘ in Saturday’s home game against rival Utah to support Coaches vs. Cancer, of special interest to the Cougar program because of head coach Dave Rose’s battle over the summer with pancreatic cancer.  Here is a visual representation of what the jerseys and shoes should look like.

RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every Friday until Madness ensues.

You know we’re headed to the stretch run towards March Madness when Bubble Watch debuts here at Rush the Court. Let’s go through all six major conferences plus those non-BCS contenders to determine who’s safely in the field, who still has work to accomplish, who’s sitting firmly on the bubble and who needs to rack up the wins to be dancing when the brackets are determined. Without further ado:

ACC

Locks: Although the massive jumble in the middle of the ACC does include Duke, they are still a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Devils feature an RPI/SOS in the top ten and quality wins over Clemson, Arizona State, Connecticut and Wake Forest. Still, it has to be concerning for Coach K that it’s mid-January and his team is 0-3 in true road games.

Should be in: I’d be surprised if Clemson at 15-4 (3-2) and a #30 RPI didn’t make the field. After welcoming Duke into town Saturday night, the Tigers will have moved past the hardest portion of their ACC slate into a stretch of four of six at home with Maryland, Florida State, Miami and Virginia making a trip to Littlejohn Coliseum. Mixed in there is a trip to BC and a more difficult roadie at Virginia Tech. By definition of the phrase, Georgia Tech “should be in” given their talent level and quality wins in ACC play. But I’m weary given this team’s capabilities of playing down to their opponent. They’re helped strongly by an RPI and SOS in the top 30.

On the bubble: Wake Forest is looking more and more like an NCAA team with a #25 RPI. They also just survived the Duke/UNC road swing with a split while two wins- vs. Maryland in OT and at Gonzaga in December- could loom large as we head towards Selection Sunday. Maryland is still working to boost a lackluster RPI and lack any semblance of a signature win during non-conference play. They must take care of business against NC State and Miami at home before embarking on a Clemson/FSU road swing that should test their mettle. The win at Georgia Tech gave Florida State a nice boost in their first ACC game, but they promptly blew that by falling to NC State at home. The Seminoles only played one NCAA team (two if you include Florida) in non-conference play and was blown out against Ohio State (#117 overall SOS). They need to finish 10-8 in the ACC and gather another signature win over Duke, Clemson, North Carolina or Georgia Tech to feel comfortable. Speaking of the Tar Heels, I’m sure they’ll turn it around once Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller return. Still, at 12-7 (1-3) and an RPI in the 60’s, Roy Williams is starting to feel the heat. Lose at NC State next Wednesday and things could really collapse.

This season has been a headache for Roy Williams

On the fringe: Virginia is the feel-good story in the ACC in Tony Bennett’s first season, but I’d be shocked if the Cavaliers made the tournament. They lost out-of-conference to bottom feeders South Florida, Penn State, Auburn and Stanford and have benefited from a favorable first three games in ACC play. It’s going to take an 10-6 mark in the ACC to dance. Miami (FL) was quickly determined to be a fluke after compiling a lofty record on the back of a non-conference SOS in the 300’s. They were just swept by BC to fall to 1-4 in the ACC and need a gigantic turnaround for Frank Haith to avoid the hot seat.

Big East

Locks: Plenty of locks and elite teams at the top with Syracuse, Villanova, Georgetown, West Virginia and Pittsburgh all feeling comfortable. While the Florida and North Carolina wins during pre-Big East play look less and less impressive for Syracuse, they still boast the #1 RPI in the nation and an abundantly favorable conference slate the rest of the way with only one difficult road contest at Georgetown. I’d be stunned if the Orange are not a #1 seed come March. Villanova has the lone unblemished mark but still has to travel to Georgetown, West Virginia, Pittsburgh and Syracuse. A split should be enough for #1 seed contention. Georgetown picked up a huge victory at Pittsburgh behind Chris Wright this week. They have a chance to make inroads as a #2 seed if they can upset Syracuse and beat Duke at home. Pittsburgh’s incredible sweep of a Syracuse-Cincinnati-Connecticut road swing should prove invaluable in terms of seeding. West Virginia could pick up a nice resume-building win tomorrow with Evan Turner back for Ohio State.

Should be in: Aside from the five locks, there’s not much else to love about the Big East. Connecticut’s resume is strongly boosted by the #1 SOS in the nation. Still, unless Notre Dame makes the tournament, the Huskies still haven’t beaten a team that will be dancing in March. They have a golden opportunity tomorrow in Storrs against temporarily-top ranked Texas. Knocking off Texas would give Connecticut a signature win and move them closer to lock status with two tricky road games ahead against Providence and Louisville.

On the bubble: Speaking of the Cardinals, Rick Pitino’s team is looking more and more like a bubble squad with their loss at Seton Hall on Thursday. Louisville’s non-conference wins are even worse than UConn and the stench from the Charlotte/Western Carolina defeats still linger. Their #48 RPI is bubblicious with a crucial bubble game this Sunday against Cincinnati looming. Cincinnati at 13-6 (4-3) was one of my last teams in the field and the win over South Florida doesn’t change anything.

Samardo Samuels is the key for Louisville to earn a berth

On the fringe: Notre Dame has a stretch ahead where they could enter the field. Aside from a road game at Villanova, six of their next seven are very winnable with DePaul, Cincinnati, South Florida and St. John’s coming to South Bend and road games at Rutgers and Seton Hall. They have a chance here to make a push, although the weak non-conference SOS doesn’t help the cause. I wouldn’t count Seton Hall out, either. They could still get to 10-8 in the Big East which would put them right on the bubble come Big East Tournament time.

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1. Happy MLK Day, everyone.  There’s probably no other American sport as impacted by the civil rights legislation spearheaded by the nonviolent resistance of Dr. King and his fellow agents of change as that of basketball.  Fifty years ago, major college basketball was whiter than virgin snow and the prevailing sentiment was that black players were too undisciplined to play the game at an elite level.  Look around today — how could so many people be so dreadfully wrong?  King’s lifelong work helped so many people in this country, and one of the relatively insignificant (in the grand scheme) results of his work was to change such an uninformed and misguided perception about black athletes (and basketball players in particular) for the better.  Our sincere hope as we celebrate Dr. King’s life today is that every player of color who will play a college basketball game this week understands the sacrifice and pain that he and others endured a half-century ago so that they can suit up and play nowadays without anyone raising so much as an eyebrow.
2. Kentucky’s John Calipari held a telethon called “Hoops for Haiti” on Sunday that raised over a million dollars for the earthquake-stricken island nation.  Notable donors included Ashley Judd, Jim Boeheim, Dick Vitale and even former UK coach Tubby Smith.
3. Cornell’s Jon Jacques, a 6’7 senior forward for the Big Red, blogs for the NY Times on his team’s recent trip to Kansas and learning what the word “snowdrift” means.  Keep in mind he’s spent 3+ years in Ithaca, NY, already!
4. Marquette transfer forward Jeronne Maymon has enrolled at Tennessee, and will be eligible to suit up for Bruce Pearl’s team next season.  While on the subject of the Vols, suspended players Melvin Goins and Cameron Tatum were reinstated on Sunday for practice and will be on the bench for UT’s next game versus Alabama on Tuesday night.
5. Mike DeCourcy examines the ridiculous second half that Texas forward Damion James gave his Longhorns on Saturday night to preserve their first #1 ranking ever.

Dave Zeitlin is the RTC correspondent for the Ivy League.

The Good

A lot has already been written about Cornell’s near-miss vs. Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse. It should not have come as a surprise as this is a veteran Big Red team with two players (Ryan Wittman and Jeff Foote) who will most assuredly get NBA looks. And it also has a coach who has become a proven big-time recruiter and is finally getting his just due as a game coach. With the core of his soon-to-be three time defending Ivy champ team graduating this spring, look for Steve Donahue to be a hot name for many job openings.

The Bad

The bottom of the conference, to be kind, has been dreadful. Brown, Yale, Penn and Dartmouth (more on them later) are a combined 4-28 in their last 32 games vs. Division 1 competition. Their RPIs are respectively 247, 291, 309 and 322. Only Penn, and to a lesser extent Brown, has played a representative schedule. Fortunately for all of those except Penn (which still has two Big 5 games ahead), the conference season begins this weekend. As the saying goes — someone has to win.

The Ugly

So for all those out there wishing to do some research: when was the last time two Ivy teams fired their coaches mid-season? (The keys to the Corvette for anyone with the correct answer.) Hot on the heels of Glen Miller at Penn was Terry Dunn at Dartmouth. Talk about the inmates running the asylum — the players allegedly unanimously signed a petition indicating that they would not play unless Terry Dunn was fired. This after the assistant coaches all left in the spring. Word as to their specific grievances has not leaked out. Think there is a line out the door to take over this plum assignment?

Here are the power rankings, with a rundown on each team heading into league play:

1) Cornell (14-3): After a warm-up on Monday, the Big Red stands at a gaudy 14-3. Can you say 28-3? A perfect Ivy season is not out of the question for the best team the league has seen since the Penn teams (who should have won an NCAA game) in the early part of the decade. Look for a Top 25 ranking and – invoking the ghost of Bill Bradley – maybe even a single digit seed in the tournament. To paraphrase ESPN analyst extraordinaire Jimmy Dykes: “Don’t be fooled by the names on the uniforms — this team can win two games come March.”

2) Harvard (12-3): Technically at the top of the standings (1-0 league) after last weekend’s drubbing of the coachless Big Green, Tommy Amaker’s crew has played a tough schedule which included respectable losses to Big East powers Georgetown and UConn, and wins vs. BC, GW, and that West Coast sensation, Seattle (50-point conqueror of Oregon State). Right now they are the clear cut second choice and their 1/30 and 2/19 games vs. Cornell should be wars.

3) Princeton (8-5): Tigers begin the Ivy season winning six out of their last seven games, albeit vs. weaker opposition. They should be battling Columbia for the minor awards in the league. With Cornell’s graduation losses looming, the Tigers may be the 2010-11 pre-season Ivy pick with underclassmen Doug Davis, Dan Mavraides and Patrick Saunders all returning.

4) Columbia (6-8): Quick – which Division 1 player has the best 3-pt fg pct? You’re right if you guessed the Lions’ Noruwa Agho. The sophomore from N.Y. boasts an unheard of 62.5% from behind the line (52 attempts). He also leads the team in scoring, averaging more than 18 points per game. Columbia has played a rather weak non-conference schedule but has the pieces in place to be better than .500 in the league.

5) Brown (6-11): A 6-11 record has to be taken with a grain of salt as two of those wins have come vs. Division 2 opposition. Nevertheless, they have played a tough schedule that included Virginia Tech, St. Johns, URI, Siena, Minnesota and Providence (all losses). The one bright spot has been 6-8 junior Matt Mullery who leads the team in scoring (15.8) rebounds, assists, field goal percentage and blocks. He may become the first Brown Bear to accomplish the near impossible Pentagon (though I just made that up).

6) Penn (1-11): With two Big 5 games (LaSalle and St. Joes) next up, it is very likely that the Quakers will enter conference play with a 1-13 record. The good news is that new coach Jerome Allen seems to have gotten the players attention and the team is, after all, 1-1 in their last two after a not-so-terrible performance against Temple on Wednesday. He has also given free reign to sophomore point guard Zack Rosen who responded to this new-found freedom with a 28-point effort vs. UMBC. The Red and Blue have been decimated by injury with starters Andreas Schreiber and Tyler Bernadini, among others, both likely lost for the season.

7) Yale (6-11): The Bulldogs returned to New Haven with two easy tune-ups prior to beginning conference play — this after a brutal five-game road trip that overlapped the new year. Coach James Jones’ squad relies heavily on holdover Alex Zampier. The 6’3 guard from the Hudson Valley in New York State averages almost 19 points per game and leads a rebuilding Yale team that includes three freshman and four sophomores.

8) Dartmouth (3-11): The Big Green, like Cornell, may be well on their way to a perfect record in conference as well — on the losing end. With Terry Dunn out (after a rare victory vs. Bucknell) assistant coach Mark Graupe will handle the coaching responsibilities until the end of the season. Not a lot of joy or promise in Hanover as no starter is averaging over eight points per game. But at least they share the rock.

The (Big) Red Scare. #1 Kansas 71, Cornell 66.  Normally, an early January game between a top-ranked Kansas squad and…well, pretty much any Ivy League school sounds about as thrilling as getting the measles twice.  Tonight was different.  Cornell came into Kansas’ dreaded Allen Fieldhouse already with a few wins over big-conference teams like Alabama, Massachusetts, and St. John’s.  They were riding the momentum of a ten-game winning streak and could boast a kid in Ryan Wittman who is nothing close to a kept secret any more.  Wittman (24/4/3 assts), a 6’6 long-range bomber averaging 19 PPG and 44% from distance, had appeared on various “best outside shooters” lists (including ours) and already had people wondering if Cornell was actually good enough to get in as an at-large team this year.  But this is no ordinary place or opponent.  This is Kansas, and this is Allen Fieldhouse, they of the 50-game home winning streak and current #1-ranking that, to be honest, hasn’t really been challenged yet.  It was close from the start; neither team led by more than three in the first half, and Cornell actually led at the break by that margin.  You still had the feeling, though, that this was one of those games in which Kansas would come out in the second half and end it early.  We’ve all seen this game before, right?  A team hangs around for a half by playing the best 20 minutes of basketball they’ve ever played, like Mike McD thinking he’s going to complete his run on Teddy KGB’s place.  We all know it’s a matter of time until Kansas turns over the two aces and sends whatever upstart they’re facing back to law school, a bratty Gretchen Mol, and Joey Knish’s delivery truck, right?  But when Cornell jumped on the Jayhawks to start the second half and extended their lead to eight, panic began to take root.  With Kansas up 53-47 with 9:45 left, the calls, texts, and more frequent network updates started.  When Kansas had still failed to reclaim the lead with under five minutes left, it was on.  Upset alert.  #1 is in trouble.  And it’s an Ivy League team. I mean, come on — ESPN even broke off of a DUKE GAME to provide bonus coverage!  Kansas, elevated by the home crowd, would eventually break free from Cornell’s expert control of the pace and take a 61-60 lead with 4:03 left, and you got the feeling that Cornell was done.  They would actually take the lead once more at 64-63 with less than a minute left, but Sherron Collins decided it was time to take over.  Handling the ball almost exclusively for Kansas, Collins (33/4/3) scored his team’s last eight points and four out of five FTs down the stretch.  Give Cornell credit for going for the kill, though.  Down 66-64, they found Wittman off a screen with 29 seconds left and he was never thinking about a two.  He would miss that three, and a later one to tie, and Kansas would eventually prevail.  This was probably the worst thing that could happen to the rest of the Big 12, since now Kansas has learned (if they weren’t aware before) not to take their position for granted, and they know there’s no such thing as a night off.  Coaches secretly love these close games early in the season because it empowers and tempers your squad, making them tougher for eventual tournament games.  As for Cornell…if the committee still considers “quality losses,” it doesn’t get much more quality than this one — to #1 Kansas, in their house, a 50-game home win streak on the line.  The Big Red will probably gain Top 25 votes from this, and it should actually help their curb appeal.  So, hands up, who wants to see Cornell opposite them as a first round opponent on Selection Sunday??  Yeah, we thought not.

Evan Turner Triumphantly Returns.  Ohio State 79, Indiana 54.  OSU wasn’t going to lose this game at home regardless of whether Turner played or not, but his presence on the court was apparent in terms of inspiring confidence in his teammates and his ability to share the ball.  He played twenty minutes, contributed 8/4/5 assts while committing three fouls, but most importantly, he didn’t really appear rusty out there other than the first few sets.  The only thing that kept him from playing more than half the game was early foul trouble, but the most important takeaway from this blowout game was that it was obvious to anyone who has watched the Buckeyes play without Turner that everyone else appeared comfortable again.  Jon Diebler in particular was the primary beneficiary, as he had a 21/3 assts/3 stls night on 5-8 from three without having to worry about running the offense (along with William Buford) nearly as much.  Turner said afterwards that the eight-week prognosis originally suggested by OSU officials was a bit of a hedge, and he was only out of commission for 4.5 weeks, but all that matters now is that Turner is back in the lineup and OSU should be back in contention for the Big Ten title and the Top 25 in short order.

Unreal Score of the Night.  Seattle 99, Oregon State 48.  Right now Craig Robinson’s numbers are looking even worse than his brother-in-law’s, as Seattle — barely a D1 school, as a brand-new Independent — came into Corvallis and obliterated the Beavers in their own building.  A 58-21 second half is simply unconscionable for a Pac-10 team playing at home against a mid-major of any kind.  Seriously, even Gonzaga with Adam Morrison, Dan Dickau and Austin Daye all starting shouldn’t be able to do what the Redhawks did to Oregon State tonight.  Cameron Dollar should be proud of his team with road wins over Utah and OSU this season already, and circle 1/26 on your calendar as Seattle will visit crosstown rival Washington for another program-making shot at glory.  

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s  resident bracketologist.  He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.

The biggest note: this is the most subjective bracket of the process. With RPI still evolving into a tool worth considering substantially, I had to construct this bracket primarily on 1) quality wins and bad losses in non-conference play, 2) non-conference SOS and 3) simple W-L record. Even conference RPI can’t be factored in yet because teams have played, at most, three conference games. With RPI rounding into form as January progresses, the bracket will switch from a more subjective process (had to use the eye test a few times, which I despise) to a more objective compilation.

• The #1 and #2 seeds were fairly straightforward. Due to Syracuse tripping up at home to Pittsburgh Saturday, the process became much easier and the four undefeated teams remaining earned the #1 nod. Three Big East teams earned nods as a #2 seed, all with one loss: West Virginia, Villanova and Syracuse. Duke was the other obvious choice for the second line.
• One of the more interesting cases was Ohio State. How much do I penalize them for the loss of Evan Turner? I was fairly harsh in the opening bracket following a discouraging defeat to Michigan and a blowout loss at Wisconsin. I’m fairly sure the Buckeyes will be moving further up the bracket when Turner is back in the fold a few weeks from now, but a #11 seed at 0-2 in the Big 10 and wins over California and Florida State seemed appropriate.
• USC will not be included in any of my brackets this year. It’s a shame because they have strong computer numbers and are building a handful of quality wins including Tennessee and UNLV. Like the Pac-10 needed to be hurt any further.
• Some notable snubs were Miami, Oregon and Saint Mary’s.  The point is pretty straightforward: I’m not going to reward you for playing a soft schedule. Miami is 14-1 but has the #85 RPI and #328 SOS in the nation with only notable wins against Minnesota and South Carolina. Oregon may be 2-0 in the Pac-10 but they have some BAD losses and need to do more to find their way into the bracket. The win at Oregon is looking stronger for St. Mary’s, but they still need to do more.
• Since we’re so early, I did factor in “quality” losses for some teams. For example, Dayton lost by under 10 to both Villanova and Kansas State (both top-10 teams) and by 2 at New Mexico (top-20 team). They deserve some credit for those close losses.
• Since we’re early in conference play, I determined the automatic bids among undefeated squads by which team had the highest RPI. I figured I should stay consistent with this throughout the season.

Last Four In: Northwestern, Richmond, Missouri State, Vanderbilt.

Last Four Out: Oklahoma State, Miami (FL), Saint Mary’s, Oregon.

Automatic bids: Vermont, Temple, Duke, East Tennessee State, Kansas, West Virginia, Weber State, Radford, Purdue, Pacific, William & Mary, UAB, Butler, Cornell, Siena, Western Michigan, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Quinnipiac, Murray State, California, Army, Kentucky, Western Carolina, UT-San Antonio, Texas Southern, Oakland, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, Louisiana Tech.

Bids per conference: ACC (7), Big East (7), SEC (6), Big 12 (6), Big 10 (6), Mountain West (3), Atlantic-10 (3), Pac-10 (2), Missouri Valley (2).

Next bracket: January 18

UK2K. Kentucky 88, Drexel 44. Kentucky jumped on Drexel early.  By jumped on, we mean 23-5 to start the game.  We mean a 56-20 lead at the half.  One of the last buckets scored in the half was a John Wall behind-the-back drive to the hole that got the crowd up and put the gavel down on this one.  The second half was an hour-long hernia examination for Drexel, complete with over 20,000 onlookers.  John Calipari had pretty much cleared his bench by the 9:00 mark, not wanting to make it any worse for Drexel coach (and friend) Bruiser Flint.  DeMarcus Cousins had yet another double-double with 18/13, most of which I think he had in the first six minutes of the game.  Patrick Patterson also had 18 for the Wildcats but the story (again) was John Wall, whose 16 points and 7 assists had the crowd — and the TV commentators — mesmerized.  The program’s 2,000th win was marked with a short ceremony after the game with Calipari acting as impromptu MC, with appearances by the son of Adolph Rupp, the wife and daughter of the late Bill Keightley (former equipment manager and beloved UK personality), and a short statement by Patrick Patterson, whom the players selected to speak on their behalf.  In all honesty, this wasn’t so much a basketball game as it was a formality and then a party for the 2,000th win. 

P-Pat Was Team UK2K Spokesman (credit: Charles Bertram)

 Ridiculous Shot of the Year. Arizona 83, Lipscomb 82 (OT). The Pac-10 narrowly averted another disastrous out-of-conference loss against an average Atlantic Sun team tonight, as Nic Wise (26/3/3 assts/4 stls) hit a three with 0.1 on the clock (where were the Butler-Xavier refs tonight?) to give Sean Miller a skin-of-his-teeth win at home tonight.  Upon further review and after seeing the sequence of events in real time, we’re not sure how the officials came to a definitive conclusion that Wise had indeed released the ball before the buzzer and accompanying red light went off.  From our angle on the couch with absolutely no pressure on our decision, it looked like he was still touching leather at that moment (State Fans Nation confirms that notion with a great screen-grab that shows the error).  Granted, it was a phenomenal shot — more of a push to the basket, actually — and as soon as we can find a video link, we’ll put it up here, but we’re thinking Lipscomb deserved the big upset tonight and may have gotten jobbed in Tucson.  Jamelle Horne was out with a foot injury tonight, but Arizona still had a very difficult time with the visting Bisons, especially Lipscomb’s big center Adnan Hodzic, who went for 34/13 against the thinner Wildcat frontline. 

Upset of the Night? UTEP 89, Oklahoma 74. Ok, not really, but pickings were slim tonight.  OU was only a two-point favorite in Vegas, which doesn’t even account for their quasi-home crowd in OKC.  But more importantly, this game illustrated some of the problems that the Sooners have been experiencing in the post-Blake Griffin era.  Incumbent star Willie Warren took Coach Jeff Capel’s words to heart (“I’m tired of trying to figure him out.“) and came out to score 18 first half points (26/3/4 assts but 5 TOs for the game), but his team has struggled defensively all season and they could not get stops as the Sooners fell behind 47-30 at the half.  The Miners shot 58% from the field and hit ten threes in a game that OU was never able to claw back into, and Warren’s counterpart in orange, Randy Culpepper, had 27/4 assts himself.  UTEP’s Derrick Caracter also had another nice game with 11/10 in his fourth game back in uniform.  This loss sends Oklahoma into the Xmas break with a ten-day layoff looking back on an 8-4 record with no marquee wins on its resume.  Beating Gonzaga in Spokane on NYE appears unlikely, so where will OU find enough wins in the rugged Big 12 this year to ensure another Tourney appearance?  Right or not, it will fall on Warren to keep his teammates actively involved on offense by cutting down on turnovers (his 22.4 TO rate is not good) and inspiring a commitment and willingness to play defense — the Sooners have been a top forty team in defensive efficiency the last three seasons under Capel, but this year they rank in the 200s, giving up 48% from the field and 35% from deep so far.  That must improve. 

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The Debacle in Hinkle.  #17 Butler 69, Xavier 68. The story over the weekend was the bizarre and (some say) unconscionable ending to the Butler-Xavier game on Saturday afternoon.  If you somehow missed it, check out our post on the subject from last night.  We pretty much agree that the referee crew followed the rules as they’re written, but that the rules as they’re written pretty much suck in a situation such as this.  RTC Live was there, and as our correspondent wrote at the time:

That would be one ballsy crew to take a full second OFF the clock against a visitor down by 1 point.  HUGE controversy WOW…. I have been doing bball for years and I cannot believe that they just did that?!?!?!?!?!”

Ballsy they were, but also correct by the letter of the law.  Unfortunately for Xavier and Chris Mack, the Musketeers were left holding the bag when a timing error led them to believe they’d have a final shot to win the game.  The NCAA needs to step up and immediately clarify this rule, including what kind of stopwatch can and cannot be used to estimate the time so that we’re not faced with an equally ridiculous ending on a much bigger stage later this year.

Jerry’s Joint.  #2 Texas 103, #10 UNC 90.  The featured game of the weekend at Jerry’s World known as the new-and-improved-to-a-ridiculous-degree Cowboys Stadium showed why many people are very high on Rick Barnes’ Texas team to cut down the nets in April.  UT put four players in the 20+ points column, including huge dub-dubs from seniors Damion James (25/15) and Dexter Pittman (23/15) to go along with Avery Bradley’s 20/4 assts/3 stls and J’Covan Brown’s 21/5/3 assts.  Showing the depth that Barnes now has at his disposal, much ballyhooed transfer Jai Lucas (recently eligible) only played six minutes and recorded zero points.  He’d start for most of the teams in the Top 25 from day one.  UNC’s Ed Davis was the only Carolina player who seemed comfortable with the waves of Texas players inside, as he blew up for 21/9/4 blks for one of his best performances of the year.  Texas will get another test on Tuesday of this week as Michigan State visits Austin, while UNC will head back home for a few easier games prior to the start of the ACC in early January.  We’re still worried about UNC’s point guard play, but we’d imagine that Texas is going to make a lot of pretty good teams look bad over the course of this season.  That team is loaded!

The JumboTron Dwarfs the Court (AP/Tony Gutierrez)

Gonz-awfulness.  #7 Duke 76, #15 Gonzaga 41.  In a game all too reminiscent of other early-season blowouts that Duke has administered on overrated teams, the Devils completely overwhelmed the Zags defensively to, as Mark Few put it after the game, “woodshed” his team on Saturday afternoon at MSG.  Duke’s defense held Gonzaga to a mere fifteen FGs for the game, 28% shooting, a single three-pointer and a quarter-century team low of 41 points.  Despite all the hype for the Duke bigs coming into the season, it’s been the backcourt play of Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith, combining for 36 PPG, 7 RPG, and 10 APG that has truly driven this team to have the look as one of the best teams in America this year.  Scheyer’s ridiculous A:TO ratio of 5.8 to 1 actually went down after two TOs in this one, but his 20/5/8 assts more than made up for the miscue.  Smith added 24/3/3 assts, and we’re going to spare talking about the Gonzaga awfulness since not a single Zag got into double figures on the day.

Shot of the Weekend.  Cornell 91, Davidson 88 (OT). Ryan Wittman’s 30-footer at the buzzer in overtime gave the Big Red its eighth win of the year and a shot at a Big East team (St. John’s) on Monday night at Madison Square Garden.  Lost in the heroics and glee of Wittman’s shot was the fact that it wouldn’t have even been possible had Louis Dale not hit a driving layup with 0.7 seconds remaining in regulation.  Cornell’s only two losses this year were against Big East teams (Seton Hall and Syracuse), so this will likely be the Ivy League favorite’s best chance to get a huge win this season (Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse is not realistic).  We haven’t been able to locate a video of this shot yet, but if you see one, let us know.

SEC Sucktitude. A week ago, we were ready to start believing that the SEC is much-improved this year.  Then the SEC East craps itself on Saturday and Sunday.  We’re reserving judgment for now, which of course means we really think this league is terrible and deserves only one bid (ok, not really).

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Dave Zeitlin is the RTC correspondent for the Ivy League.

There hasn’t been much action on the floor recently as the Ivy League geniuses are in the middle of final exams — but there was one huge move off the floor when Penn fired head coach Glen Miller after an 0-7 start.  The firing has generated rare attention to the league from the national media, and most of it has been negative.  Believe me, I understand why people are saying that the Ivy League should hold itself to higher standards.  But after following the team closely for the last few years, I must say that I firmly believe Penn made the right decision.  A program that wins six conference championships this decade should never get to a point where it has the third lowest RPI in the entire country.  The Palestra, college basketball’s most historic gym, should never be silent and half-empty.  It wasn’t just the wins that disappeared; it was the spirit of Penn basketball.  And only a move like this — rash as it may seem to outsiders — can restore the program’s tradition, which has been glorious for many, many years.  I talk more about the firing in my new blog that just launched for all things Penn sports.

On to the (unofficial) power rankings….

• Cornell (7-2): Big Red has deservedly been getting some votes in the AP Top 25 poll.
• Harvard (7-2):  Knocking off big-conference schools has almost become a staple under Tommy Amaker.
• Princeton (5-4): After losing four straight, Tigers have reeled off three consecutive wins.
• Columbia (5-4): Sophomore guard Noruwa Agho continues to dominate for the Lions, sharing league player of the week honors with Harvard’s Jeremy Lin after averaging 26.5 points per game in a pair of road wins.
• Brown (4-7): Bears lost four straight heading into a three-week layoff but their schedule has been difficult.
• Yale (4-6): Bulldogs are getting healthier heading into the new year.
• Dartmouth (2-7): Big Green earned its second win of the season with a 29-point thrashing of Division III Lyndon State.
• Penn (0-7): The Quakers are probably not the worst team in the league … but it’s hard to put them anywhere else since they haven’t won a game and have the third worst RPI in Division I.

B.C. CAN’T BEAT HARVARD:  If not for the Miller firing, the biggest story in the past two weeks would be Harvard’s win over Boston College — for the second straight year. And this came only three days after the Crimson narrowly lost to Connecticut. Senior Jeremy Lin may be the best player in the league, and is even getting a little NBA buzz. But before anyone thinks of that, the Crimson go up against another Big East opponent when they face Georgetown (and former Ivy League coach John Thompson III) on Dec. 23. Could another upset be in the works? Don’t rule it out.

THE HAWK DIES AGAINST CORNELL:  Cornell used a crippling 25-4 run in its most recent win, a 78-66 victory over St. Joe’s, to go into its break with a very impressive 7-2 record — considering its only two losses came against Big East teams. Still, the team hasn’t always clicked on all cylinders — which is why the 25-4 run was so nice to see for Big Red fans .

HITTING THE CENTURY MARK:  In its 102-91 win over Wagner last week, Columbia put up the most points against a Division I opponent since the 1976-77 season — also against Wagner.  At Penn, fans get free cheesesteaks if the team scores over 100 points. Unfortunately, they haven’t been giving out half of a cheesesteak in the rare cases Penn scores over 50 this season.

VINTAGE PRINCETON:  The Tigers beat Monmouth, 46-42, on Wednesday, despite shooting 30.4 percent for the game. The last time Princeton won with a field goal percentage as low was in 2004.

BATTLE OF PROVIDENCE:  Despite 12 points from each of the Sullivan brothers (Matt and Peter), Brown fell to Providence, 78-62, in the annual showdown for Rhode Island’s capital. Rhode Island — neither a road nor an island. Discuss.

BULLDOGS IN COLORADO:  Yale will spends its New Year’s Eve in the Rocky Mountain State, taking on Colorado on Dec. 29 and Colorado State on Dec. 31.

WELCOME, JEROME ALLEN:  Penn’s interim coach Jerome Allen, a terrific player in the 90s, will lead the Quakers into Davidson on Dec. 28 for his first game as a head coach. Penn then stays in North Carolina to face Duke on Dec. 31. Allen’s first home game in charge? That’s against Temple and his old coach, Fran Dunphy. Welcome to coaching, sir.

FEARLESS PREDICTION OF THE WEEK:  I have a feeling Harvard makes it two terrific wins in a row after it meets Georgetown. And if Penn beats Duke on New Year’s Eve, I will drink about nine extra bottles of champagne in celebration.

Happy Holidays, everyone. Last year, I told everyone to pray to God Shammgod.  This year, I recommend you pray to Boubacar Aw — who doesn’t have a religious name…just an awesome one.