Ryan ZumMallen of LBPostSports.com is the RTC correspondent for the ACC, SEC and Big West Conferences.
The SEC standings continue to shake up as Kentucky’s loss at Vanderbilt sent the Wildcats down a few spots, but LSU remains atop the conference and is still the lone ranked team at #24. The Tigers have won six straight and look like front-runners for the title at this point, but look out for any of the next four teams – who all have the talent to challenge for the crown (if they would just stop beating up on each other). Notice, if you will, the strength of the SEC’s Eastern Division over the Western in the standings below.
LSU (W) 9-1 (21-4)
South Carolina (E) 7-3 (18-5)
Tennessee (E) 7-3 (16-8)
Kentucky (E) 7-4 (18-7)
Florida (E) 6-4 (19-6)
Mississippi State (W) 6-4 (16-9)
Auburn (W) 5-5 (16-9)
Vanderbilt (E) 5-6 (15-9)
Ole Miss (W) 4-6 (13-11)
Alabama (W) 3-7 (13-11)
Arkansas (W) 1-9 (13-10)
Georgia (E) 1-9 (10-15)
Without a doubt, any of the East’s top four could make a run at the SEC Championship in a few weeks. Tennessee has sputtered at times but was the preseason favorite and still has the tools to get it done, Kentucky will be especially dangerous if they get Patrick Patterson back to ease the pressure on Jodie Meeks, and South Carolina is as hot as anybody in the conference right now after winning 9 of their last 12. Of course, LSU is more determined than ever, having recently been ranked in the Top 25 for the first time in over two years.
RTC is growing and we’re in dire need of an intern who has a love for college hoops and a keen sense of how to aggregate and analyze news from various RSS feeds. We can’t pay you any actual funds, but if you’re in college, we may be able to work with your school to provide credit for the few hours a week you’d be giving us. If you’re looking to move into blogging and/or writing, working at RTC could boost your career prospects, and if things work out on the initial tasks, there is also a possibility of writing assignments going forward.
Send a one-paragraph description of yourself to rushthecourt@yahoo.com and why your skills and talents would make for a good fit at RTC. Please refer specifically to how you keep up with sports news (particularly college basketball news) and how you would analytically distinguish between hundreds of daily stories to isolate key issues and trends in the news.
RTC Will Provide the Stickies
And if you look at all similar to this prospective intern, please send a photo.
ESPN Ruins Gillispie-Edwards Part III. If you read our post on this today, you know that we sorta saw this coming. As much as ESPN tried to officially act that the blogosphere doesn’t exist, they undoubtedly knew that the biggest attraction of tonight’s games was the potential for another icy conversation between Jeannine Edwards and Billy Gillispie. So short of a major blowup by Gillispie, the game producers weren’t about to let that happen. Instead they gave us the amiable Vandy coach, Kevin Stallings, who wasn’t about to berate Jeannine Edwards for her questions. Thanks, WWL.
Update: The Nashville Tennessean reported today that Edwards made the decision to “cut her losses” by interviewing Stallings instead of Gillispie. Avoidance – the classic, tried-and-true female strategy.
Vanderbilt 77, Kentucky 64. As for this game, Kentucky is now in serious trouble of missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1991. With Patrick Patterson on the shelf because of a sore ankle, UK only had one offensive weapon, and Jodie Meeks’ 26 wasn’t enough as UK dropped to 18-8 and 7-4 in the SEC. In a normal year for the SEC, they’d be in good shape, but this league is shaping up as a 3- or 4-bid conference, and UK’s RPI is hovering in the 60s with games still looming at South Carolina and Florida. We figure UK needs to go 4-1 the rest of the way to remain squarely in the conversation. Anything less and it’s SEC Tournament run or bust.
Purdue 72, Michigan St. 54. Purdue got Robbie Hummel back for this game, and Purdue is a much better team when he is on the floor. The Boilermakers held MSU to 33% shooting from the field, and it was clear early in the second half that Tom Izzo’s squad wasn’t going to make a comeback in this one. MSU is really capable of laying gigantic eggs on occasion, even now that they have all their pieces back, and we’re not sure what that means for the Spartans come March, but it’s probably not a good thing.
Some Other Games on a Quiet Tuesday Night.
Clemson 93, Maryland 64. Clemson dropped 59 on the Terps in the second half behind Trevor Booker’s 11/14, including at least one jaw-dropping follow slam. The Tigers moved into a five-way tie for second in the ACC (all with 4 losses).
Marquette 79, Seton Hall 67. Wesley Matthews had 24/4/4 assts in a game where Marquette only woke up in the mid-second half to put Seton Hall away.
Creighton 89, Evansville 84. Creighton has gotten itself in position to become the second MVC team into the Tourney (the bracket matrix has CU on the brink) with their seventh straight win.
BYU 73, New Mexico 62. Jonathan Tavernari had 22/7 as BYU kept the pace with San Diego St. at 8-3 in the Mountain West.
On Tap Wednesday (all times EST).
Miami (FL) @ Florida St. (ESPNU) – 7pm. Key bubble game in the ACC race.
Alabama @ Florida – 7pm. Must-win for the Gators at home.
Georgetown @ South Florida (ESPN360) – 7pm. Speaking of must-wins, Georgetown can’t afford a Marquette showing here.
Notre Dame @ West Virginia (ESPN360) – 7pm. Who wants to make the NCAA Tournament, third edition.
Penn St. @ Illinois – 7pm. PSU’s dwindling NCAA chances could really use an upset here.
Citadel @ Davidson – 7pm. If Curry doesn’t play, Citadel could give DC a game here.
Drexel @ George Mason – 7pm. A key game in the CAA for two teams trying to catch VCU and Northeastern (one game ahead).
Providence @ Louisville (ESPN2) – 7:30pm. Despite being 8-5 in the Big East, PC’s RPI is not impressive (#69), so they need this game desperately.
Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest – 7:30pm. Can Georgia Tech win its second game of the ACC season against the only team it’s beaten so far?
Tennessee @ Ole Miss (ESPN360) – 8pm. UT can’t afford another bad loss.
NC State @ UNC (ESPN360) – 8pm. NC State is playing better, but don’t expect an upset here.
Virginia Tech @ Virginia (ESPN360) – 8pm. Can UVa pull another upset at home?
South Carolina @ Mississippi St. – 8pm. Key bubble game in the SEC between two surprise teams.
LSU @ Arkansas – 8pm. Can the Hawgs pull another home upset against a ranked team?
Ohio St. @ Northwestern – 9pm. NW has proven tough at home, OSU had better bring its best game.
Oklahoma St. @ Texas Tech (ESPN2) – 9pm. What a terrible nationally-televised game.
We haven’t seen much written on this yet, so we thought it would be worth our 1000th post here at RTC (woohoo!) to mock the media’s mock bracket that came out last Friday. You remember the drill – the NCAA invites twenty distinguished members of the hoops cognoscenti to Indianapolis to go through the same exercise of filling the bracket in twelve hours that the NCAA Selection Committee goes through in five days (we’re still awaiting RTC’s invite). According to Mike DeCourcy, this abridged media experience somehow proves that there’s no time for shenanigans amongst the committee in terms of potential made-for-tv matchups and backroom wheeling and dealing – “demystifying and demythifying” were the words used – even though the fact that the Selection Committee has five full days (vs. 12 hours) to consider other variables, such as ensuring compelling matchups, seems lost on him. Demythifying? We’re still trying to figure out how UNLV was selected over Vanderbilt and Notre Dame in the 2000 Tourney. Oh yeah, Craig Thompson.
Anyway, here’s the media mock bracket (as of last Friday):
Clemson as an overall #2 seed is abominable, and that was true even before the Tigers’ loss to Virginia on Sunday. And we have to agree with the commenters on Decourcy’s piece who take issue with Florida as a #8 seed ranked ahead of SEC leader LSU (#10 seed). He’s right in that LSU’s out-of-conference schedule reads like a Big South slate, but credit has to be given for essentially dominating a BCS conference, which is what LSU at 9-1 has done to date. The fairer way would have been to give both #9 seeds and be done with that dilemma. Butler as a #3 seed, Utah as a #5 seed and USC as a #9 seed are so absurd it’s not even worth further mention.
We were also really surprised to see Georgetown in the bracket anywhere, much less as a #10 seed. The Hoyas have top-tier talent and a decent RPI, but goodness, at 13-9 and 4-7 in the Big East at the time of this bracket, this has every hallmark of a rep pick. And what happened at the #11-seed level of this bracket? Cornell (ok, which reporter went to Cornell?), South Carolina (ok), Davidson (will be higher) and Arizona (will be a good bit higher)? Decourcy mentioned the Davidson dilemma, but if the Wildcats win the SoCon again, they’ll be no lower than a #10 this year – mark that down.
Cross-referencing with our bracketologist Zach Hayes’ latest report which came out yesterday, we see that our guy’s analysis is significantly stronger and well contemplated than the bracket that the media came up with by themselves. Seriously, we can’t believe some of their seeding selections. This is comprised of America’s college hoops experts? Wethinks that the bloggers could have done a better job, even in such a small slice of time as twelve hours.
Update: we were tipped to Kyle Whelliston’s excellent column describing the events of the media mock selection process, and it makes things considerably clearer. First, the mock committee were given scenarios based on automatic qualifiers that helps to explain why some of the seedings are out of whack with current relative positions; second, there was a major technical glitch during the proceedings that led to the seed lines 6 and below getting filled based purely on RPI. Whelliston made pains to say that this is not how it would typically go. DeCourcy never mentioned it. This makes us feel a little better about the process, and the resultant bracket, although we still don’t think that it proves anything about conference affiliation considerations and/or other backroom shenanigans. After all, the real committee has more time and are better versed in how to do this.
Jeff Goodman of Fox Sports is reporting that UNC freshman Tyler Zeller will be returning to the Tar Heels lineup most likely in time for tomorrow night’s game against North Carolina State. According to Steve Kirschner, the Associate Director of Athletics for Communications at UNC, “It’s 99 percent that he’ll play tomorrow night.” Zeller, who broke his wrist while being fouled on a breakaway dunk (see below) against Kentucky, played well in his only game of the season as he scored 18 against Penn in the Tar Heels season-opener playing in place of the injured Tyler Hansbrough.
UNC fans were expecting to have a formidible interior with reigning national POY in Hansbrough, junior Deon Thompson, and the two freshman (Zeller and Ed Davis). Hansbrough has been Hansbrough although not as dominant as we expected (more on that in a post later this week), Thompson has played well in stretches, and Davis has been UNC’s best interior defender. However, both Thompson and Davis have had a drop-off in their production recently. Zeller may not add a lot to the Tar Heels interior defense, but he can certainly contribute offensively.
When combined with the announcement yesterday that UConn‘s Jerome Dyson was done for the season, this seems to shift the balance of power over to UNC although Pittsburgh fans may disagree after their performance on the road yesterday. In any case, it definitely makes the Tar Heels a tougher out in the tournament as they now have the strongest inside game in the country to go along with a lightning fast point guard in Ty Lawson and a sharpshooter who has found his range in Wayne Ellington.
Other than Michigan St. @ Purdue tonight (and really, who wants to watch that?), the games tonight are quite pedestrian. So piggybacking a report from SportsbyBROOKS yesterday (via Deadspin) that the root of the frosty relations between Kentucky capo Billy Gillispie and ESPN sideline reporter Jeannine Edwards goes back to her refusal to enjoy consensual carnal relations with go out with him, we feel compelled to comment on such a weighty matter.
(photo credit: sportsbyBrooks)
You may recall our first inkling of their tiff on January 27 when UK played at Ole Miss. Gillispie was unhappy with his team and thought Edwards’ question was particularly bad, so he told her so.
Then last week during the UK-Florida game at Rupp, Gillispie seemingly mocked Edwards as he pretended to not hear her question before telling her that she “would know better than” him when it came to, you know, basketball… stuff. We even wrote at the time that maybe there was more to his condescension than met the eye.
So what’s the story here? The easy answer is that, yeah, Gillispie is peeved that Edwards denied his amorous advances, but as any female aged 18-50 who lives in the Lexington area knows, Billy Clyde isn’t exactly the kind of chap who takes the word “no” to heart. And that of course assumes he can even remember it. No, Gillispie has beef with Edwards, but that’s probably because he’s a chauvanist men’s basketball coach who doesn’t respect her position rather than any particular incident involving dating her. Come on, ladies of Lexington… you gals who frequent Harry’s after games and have fallen into the Gillispie Fly Trap – feel free to chime in here.
Nevertheless, sideshows sell and so we come to tonight’s UK @ VanderbiltJodie Meeks game, and guess who is scheduled to once again be the sideline reporter? Yep, Ms. Jeannine Edwards. Is there any question that ESPN’s halftime interview split ratings will be the highest of any game all season long?
Of course, if Vandy somehow does something interesting for the first time in the history of that school, maybe ESPN will avoid this whole sordid mess by interviewing Kevin Stallings instead. Wouldn’t that be rich?
Josh & Mike from Big Ten Geeks are the RTC correspondents for the Big Ten Conference.
Looking Back
At this point in the season, Michigan State has clearly separated itself from the pack in the Big Ten. The real race is for 2nd place in the conference, which would mean more than bragging rights. The increased parity in the league means the Big Ten Tournament won’t be an easy place to pick up wins, and those wins could prove to be critical for a few teams. So in that sense, Wisconsin had a pretty big week, picking up wins over Iowa and Ohio State. The Badgers now sit at 7-6 in conference place, and with two games remaining against Indiana things are looking good.
Also picking up two wins was Illinois and Purdue. Both of these teams have likely already secured a Tournament berth, and at this point are playing for seeding. At the other end of the spectrum is Minnesota, losers of 3 of their last 4 games (and 5 out of their last 8). Tubby Smith‘s team needs the offense to wake out of its doldrums.
Looking Ahead
The game of the week is tonight, with Michigan State visiting Purdue. The Boilermakers have been a bit of a disappointment this season, but to be fair, they’ve been without preseason Conference Player of the Year Robbie Hummel for much of the conference season. Still, even with his absence, Matt Painter‘s team could catch Michigan State in the standings. To do so, however, they all but have to win tonight’s game.
Illinois also has a couple of big tests this week, with games against Penn State and at Ohio State. Win both, and the Illini could be looking at a 3 seed. Lose both, and they could fall lower than a 5 seed. And Wisconsin plays a pivotal game at Michigan State on Sunday. Lots of good games this week.
A Look at the Numbers
You know what’s nuts? Ohio State shoots 55% on its two pointers, and over 40% from the 3 point line, and they’re second in the conference in terms of getting to the line. Yet, they score just 1.05 points per possession. Wisconsin, on the other hand, shoots 49% from 2, 35% from 3, and they’re one of the worst teams in the conference in terms of scoring from the stripe. But they’re second in the conference in points per possession, at 1.08. The reason? Well, Wisconsin doesn’t waste possessions like Ohio State does. The Badgers lead the conference in TO Rate, coughing it up on just 15.4% of their possessions. In contrast, Ohio State’s TO Rate sits at 22.7%. Additionally, Wisconsin’s offensive rebounding percentage is at 31%, while Ohio State grabs just 25.1% of their misses. The point is that scoring isn’t just about making shots, it’s also about taking more shots. This was on full display in Wisconsin’s win over Ohio State – the Buckeyes lit the nets on fire (57.9 eFG), while the Badgers were miserable from the field (40.0 eFG). But Wisconsin won because they attempted 17 more shots. Crafty one, that Bo Ryan.
With Selection Sunday coming up in just a few short weeks, fans of teams across the country are starting to analyze their team’s results looking at “quality wins” and “bad losses” (Aren’t they all?), digging into obscure computer formulas that analyze strength of schedule, margin of victory, and even more esoteric statistics. However, sometimes it is better to keep it simple. One of the better examples of this comes from Stephen Greenwell (h/t to Patrick Marshall of Bluejay Basketball for pointing this out) who decided to look at the simplest correlation of them all: wins and NCAA tournament bids.
Steven looked at the results from the 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08 seasons and stratified teams based on the number of wins they had that year regardless of their strength of schedule or any other factor. The results are below:
Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist. He’ll be regularly out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.
Here’s the latest edition of RTC Bracketology from our resident bracketologist Zach. This was created before the Pitt-UConn game last night so it does not reflect that game or any others from last night.
RTC Bracket as of February 16th
More on the key games this week and a rationale of the seeds and snubs after the jump.
Obviously, the big game tonight is #4 Pittsburgh (23-2) at #1 UConn (24-1). We were unable to obtain a media credential for this game, but in our quest to provide you with the best college basketball coverage anywhere (that doesn’t require any broadcast equipment) we’ll be covering the big game from the RTC penthouse in Boston.
Preview
I’ll keep this short since there are already a ton of experts out there who have offered their thoughts on this game. Although I believe the news that Jerome Dyson is out for the season is a big deal long-term for UConn, I don’t think it should be a major factor today as the Huskies did not expect to have him in the lineup today anyways. From my perspective, I think this game comes down to 3 key match-ups: Hasheem Thabeet versus DeJuan Blair, Jeff Adrien versus Sam Young, and A.J. Price versus Levance Fields. While there are several other role players (Kemba Walker, Craig Austrie, and Stanley Robinson for UConn and Jermaine Dixon, Ashton Gibbs, and Brad Wanamaker for Pitt) who could potentially have a big impact tonight, I believe that whoever wins 2 out of the 3 big match-ups should win the game.
Thabeet vs. Blair: Thabeet’s ability to block and alter shots has been discussed ad nauseum already this season and we have just crossed the midway point in February. Needless to say, he has a big presence in the paint. One of the interesting things that most people don’t realize is that when Thabeet goes outside of the paint to try to block a shot, it leaves a huge gap under the basket for the opposing team to clean up. Take the Huskies win against Seton Hall on Saturday. Everyone has been raving about Thabeet’s 25 points, 20 rebound, and 9 blocks, but most people have completely ignored John Garcia‘s 22 points, 13 rebounds (6 offensive), and 6 blocks for the Pirates. While I can’t hold Thabeet responsible for Garcia’s 6 blocks, the offensive numbers Garcia put up are pretty startling especially since he is a mediocre player (8.4 PPG and 7.4 RPG). I think Thabeet has an advantage over Blair when they are matched up one-on-one, but watch out for Blair picking up a lot of “garbage” points and rebounds when Thabeet goes after a block.
Adrien vs. Young: This is probably the least hyped of the three match-ups I am featuring, but these two are the leading scorers for their respective clubs. Their numbers are pretty similar with Young having the edge in points and Adrien having a big edge on the boards, but their games are very different. Adrien likes to bang on the inside (only 1 3-point attempt this year) while Young likes to play on the perimeter (95 3-point attempts this year) although he doesn’t mind bringing it inside for the highlight reel finish (see below). Normally, I’d give the edge here to Young, but with Thabeet inside to clean up Adrien’s mistakes, I think it will come out being closer to a draw between these two.
Price vs. Fields: With the two other match-ups probably being pretty close tonight, the match-up at point guard will likely decide the game. Neither guard is a great scoring guard, but both teams have enough talent that they don’t need their point guards to score. Price has a respectable 1.6 to 1 assist to turnover ratio while Fields is currently at an absurd 4.2 to 1. These two guards are fairly evenly matched and it probably would be a draw (or even a slight edge to Fields) if I had to match them up without allowing them any substitutes, but Jim Calhoun‘s ability to utilize Walker or Austrie shifts this match-up in favor of the Huskies. Jamie Dixon has some solid perimeter players in Dixon (9 PPG) and two 3-point threats in Gibbs (49.1% from 3) and Wanamaker (45.2% from 3), but nobody of the caliber of Walker or Austrie.
Prediction: UConn by 5 in a close one that comes down to execution at the end. I’d expect Thabeet to end up with at least 1 block in a frantic final minute of action.
