3/14 Update:  The Championship Game between Duquesne and Temple begins tonight at 6pm EDT.  See you there!

3/13 Update: Tonight CCT will be live-blogging the semifinals, with Xavier-Temple the early game at 6:30 pm and Dayton-Duquesne in the nightcap.  Enjoy!

3/12 Update:  The quarterfinal round promises to have several good games.  Here is today’s liveblog, courtesy again of our friends at College Chalktalk.

RTC Live is pleased to announce that we have partnered with our Atlantic 10 correspondent, College Chalktalk, to provide simul-blogging live from courtside of the A10 Tournament in Atlantic City, NJ, this week.

The Tournament began this afternoon with two good games where St. Louis and St. Joseph’s advanced to the quarterfinal round, and it will continue tonight as UMass will battle Duquesne and St. Bonaventure will play Richmond.   CCT, the authoritative voice on Atlantic 10 basketball, will be simul-blogging the UMass-Duquesne game, and we invite you to join their coverage here on the site tonight and throughout the rest of the week.

With Selection Sunday coming up in just a few short weeks, fans of teams across the country are starting to analyze their team’s results looking at “quality wins” and “bad losses” (Aren’t they all?), digging into obscure computer formulas that analyze strength of schedule, margin of victory, and even more esoteric statistics. However, sometimes it is better to keep it simple. One of the better examples of this comes from Stephen Greenwell (h/t to Patrick Marshall of Bluejay Basketball for pointing this out) who decided to look at the simplest correlation of them all: wins and NCAA tournament bids.

Steven looked at the results from the 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08 seasons and stratified teams based on the number of wins they had that year regardless of their strength of schedule or any other factor. The results are below:

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.   He’ll be regularly out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.

Welcome to the first edition of Your Bubble Has Burst here on the new and improved RTC. I’m your resident bracketologist Zach Hayes here to give you a midweek update on the state of the all-important bubble, my favorite topic of conversation this time of year. I’ve classified every team in NCAA contention under four categories: locks (certainly in the field), comfortably in (they can pretty much depend on their name being called barring an epic collapse), work left to do (teams that need to win games to ensure their spot or risk being left out) and on the brink (teams not quite on the bubble that need to win and win often immediately). Let’s get right into it:

Note: all computer numbers prior to Thursday’s games.

Atlantic Coast

Locks: The three ACC locks- Duke, North Carolina and Clemson– are all likely top-four seeds in the NCAA Tournament. They boast RPIs in the top 15, with Duke landing at #4 and North Carolina at #5. The Tar Heels victory Wednesday in Durham drops Duke to a likely #2 seed with Clemson in the 3-4 range. These three teams should stay around this spot and are all Final Four threats in the top-heavy ACC.

Comfortably in: Wake Forest’s loss to their fourth unranked ACC team pushes them down a level. We’d still bet on them being a top-four seed on Selection Sunday, but you never know with this amount of youth, inexperience and inconsistency. Wins over Duke and Carolina help tremendously. Florida State has established themselves as a likely top-6 seed in the field by nearly defeating #1 seeds Pitt and North Carolina at home along with a huge comeback win at Clemson on Saturday. They also have excellent computer totals (20 RPI, 32 SOS) and 4 wins against the RPI top 50. The Seminoles need to stay focused due to a challenging schedule down the stretch, with vengeful Clemson and desperate-for-wins Miami and Virginia Tech visiting Tallahassee and trips to Wake, Duke, BC and Virginia Tech. There are no softies down the stretch.

Work left to do: Boston College could have used a win over Clemson Tuesday at home; instead, they risk going 0-4 (Duke and @ Miami) during a crucial ACC stretch. Luckily, they finish with Florida State and Georgia Tech at home with a visit to NC State, so they should be able to end strong and feel fairly good. Virginia Tech is aided by Duke and North Carolina visiting Blacksburg down the stretch, but let’s not forget those are games against Duke and North Carolina. They must take advantage of games at home vs. Georgia Tech and Florida State, along with a road contest at ACC punching bag Virginia. Miami is only 4-6 in the conference but seems to be improving with a beatdown of Wake Forest and near win at Cameron. They sit squarely on the bubble but end the campaign with BC, @Virginia, @Georgia Tech and NC State, four very winnable games. It could come down to the ACC Tournament for these four teams.

On the brink: Believe it or not, 15-8 (4-5) Maryland is still alive. They absolutely MUST beat Virginia Tech at home on Valentine’s Day to have a chance. Then they’d hope to win at NC State and Georgia Tech while stealing a home game against the top 3- Wake, Duke and North Carolina. This is a very high hill to climb for Gary Williams who I’m sure wishes he could have another shot at Miami and Florida State (two last second losses). They really hope to get to 8-8 and make an ACC Tournament run.

Big East

Locks: The Big East currently boasts two projected #1 seeds- RPI #1 Pittsburgh and #3 Connecticut. It’s extremely likely the Big East will garner two #1 seeds on Selection Sunday, and I’d be shocked if Pitt and Connecticut weren’t the two represented at the top of the bracket given their non-conference performance (as opposed to Louisville) and overall talent level. Louisville has rebounded nicely to a #2 seed in the projected field and have a favorable yet dangerous schedule down the stretch with road games against Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Georgetown and West Virginia (combined: 18-25). Villanova made tremendous progress towards moving to a 2-seed with their convincing win against Marquette last night. They hold a 10 RPI and 22 SOS down the stretch, while Marquette is trending the other way with a horrifying schedule (UConn, @Pittsburgh, @Louisville, Syracuse, @Georgetown remaining).

Comfortably in: Syracuse has hit a rough patch lately, but still should feel pretty good about where they stand. A 22 RPI and 21 SOS are solid numbers. They still have home games vs. Cincinnati, Rutgers and Georgetown with a visit to St. John’s on the slate.

Work left to do: West Virginia didn’t qualify for the comfortably in category because of their 5-6 conference record, but I’ll be shocked if they don’t make the field. They have a great chance in every single game the rest of the way with road contests at Rutgers, Cincinnati and South Florida and Louisville posing the toughest home threat. Their 15 RPI and 6 SOS are excellent totals. Bob Huggins’ former school, Cincinnati, still needs more wins to make up for a lacking non-conference resume. The win at Georgetown on Saturday was huge as are home games vs. West Virginia and Louisville near the end of February. Providence holds a 7-5 record in the conference with word before the season that 10-8 should be enough. Considering they have two games vs. Rutgers and Notre Dame at home, it may happen. Georgetown is also lurking as a team that probably needs to get to 9-9 and win twice in New York. They’ll have to sweep Marquette, Louisville and DePaul at home and steal a game on the road, a daunting task.

On the brink: Seton Hall has won five in a row to creep within bubble territory, fattening up against inferior competition. With their next three vs. Connecticut and at Marquette and pesky St. John’s, it could end soon. Much like Georgetown, the goal is to find a way to get to 9-9 and make a Big East Tournament run. Notre Dame is 3-7 and needs a miracle to find themselves in the field with a 79 RPI and weak non-conference SOS. They also play road games against Connecticut, West Virginia and Providence.

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College Chalktalk is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference. 

This Week in the A-10
By CCT Staff | January 26, 2009

PLAYER OF THE WEEK:  Ahmad Nivins (Sr.), Saint Joseph’s

Nivins once again put the Hawks on his back and carried them to two victories on the week.  In the two contests, Nivins averaged a spectacular 27 points and 16.5 rebounds per outing.  Against Duquesne, he set a career-high scoring mark, netting 34 points and pulling down 16 rebounds.  The senior forward also had a standout performance against Big 5 rival Penn, scoring 20 points and snagging 17 rebounds.  The two strong efforts by Nivins were his tenth and eleventh double-doubles on the season.

HONORABLE MENTION:  Rodney Green (Sr.), La Salle; Justin Harper (So.), Richmond

(Note: College Chalktalk’s week runs from the previous Monday through Sunday, given the release of ‘This Week in the A-10′ each Monday morning.)

GAME OF THE WEEK:  Jan. 21, 2009.  Saint Joseph’s 99, Duquesne 98 (OT)

In a game that featured double-digit leads for both teams, the outcome was decided by just one point and on the final play of the game.   By the way, that final play occurred in overtime.

Duquesne broke out of the gates early and opened up a 16-5 lead.  The Hawks came roaring back and built a 53-37 margin going into the half.  The Dukes rallied once again with a 24-4 run to retake the lead, before Ahmad Nivins scored six straight points in the final 45 seconds to tie the game and send it into an extra frame.

In the overtime,  Jason Duty hit a three-pointer with eight seconds to play to give the Dukes a one-point lead.  The Hawks had one last chance. Tasheed Carr, playing well of late, had his shot blocked and it fell into teammate Garrett Williamson’s hands.  Williamson’s game winning attempt misfired, but Idris Hilliard tipped in the rebound as time expired giving the Hawks a huge early conference win.

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College Chalktalk is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference.

By CCT Staff | January 19, 2009

PLAYER OF THE WEEK:

Dionte Christmas (Sr.), Temple

Christmas led the Owls in scoring both games last week, averaging 25.5 points and nine rebounds per contest.  In the seven day span, Christmas shot 9-of-17 (53%) from behind the arc, including a 5-for-5 night from deep in a Big 5 battle versus Penn.  Against UMass, Christmas had a near double-double as he tallied 26 points and nine rebounds.  Overall, Dionte shot a sparkling 58% from the field on 19-of-33 shooting.   

HONORABLE MENTION:  Ahmad Nivins (Sr.), Saint Joseph’s; Rob Lowery (Jr.), Dayton; Maurice Thomas (Jr.) St. Bonaventure

(Note: College Chalktalk’s week runs from the previous Monday through Sunday, given the release of ‘This Week in the A-10′ each Monday morning.)

GAME OF THE WEEK: January 17, 2009.  St. Bonaventure 71, Richmond 67.  With 2:55 to play, the Bonnies trailed the Spiders by seven and it looked as though SBU would suffer their first road loss of the season.  Last season, this surely would have been the case.  Not so fast in 2009.  The Bonnies rattled off the final 11 points over that span and made big defensive stops on the way to record their seventh road win of the year.  To put this in perspective, St. Bonaventure won eight games all of last season, let alone road games.  The star of the night for the Bonnies was Maurice Thomas, who recorded his fourth double-double of the season by netting a career-high 25 points and pulling down a game-high 11 boards.      

GAME OF THE UPCOMING WEEK:  Xavier @ LSU.  In Xavier’s last non-conference game of the season, the Musketeers head south to the Bayou to take on the Tigers of LSU in what should be a very entertaining match-up.  Xavier will not be welcomed guests when they arrive in Baton Rouge, as LSU is 13-0 at home on the season.  Xavier is 4-0 in true road contests, however, so something will have to give.   The Tigers (14-3) are led by guard Marcus Thornton (17.6 ppg) and forward Tasmin Mitchell (15.2 ppg).  Derrick Brown, B.J. Raymond & Co. should have their hands full with these two.     

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College Chalktalkis the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference.

By CCT Staff | January 11, 2009

PLAYERS OF THE WEEK:

Ahmad Nivins (Sr.), Saint Joseph’s

While Saint Joseph’s only played one game this week, Nivins stood out by recording one of the best single-game efforts of the season by an A-10 player.  In the triple overtime win over Rhode Island, Nivins scored 28 points and grabbed a career-high 20 rebounds.  The senior forward shot 9-of-15 from the field in the contest and added three blocked shots to his gaudy stat line.  The double-double marked the seventh of the season for Nivins; tops in the conference.

Aaron Jackson (Sr.), Duquesne

Jackson has been the leader of the upstart Dukes, guiding the team to a 2-0 record in its first week of conference play.  In the two games, Jackson averaged a lofty 25 points, seven assists, and 3.5 rebounds per contest.  Jackson shot an impressive 66% (19-29) from the floor over the two game span, including 5-of-9 from behind the three-point arc.  In the win over Charlotte, he became just the 32nd player in Duquesne history to reach the 1,000 point plateau in his career.

HONORABLE MENTION:  Dionte Christmas (Sr.), Temple; Kahiem Seawright (Sr.), Rhode Island; Derrick Brown (Jr.), Xavier

(Note: College Chalktalk’s week runs from the previous Monday through Sunday, given the release of ‘This Week in the A-10′ each Monday morning.)

GAME OF THE WEEK:  January 10, 2009.  Saint Joseph’s 92, Rhode Island 86 (3 OT)

Ahmad Nivins did enough in just the one game this week to secure his place as Co-Player of the Week, posting 28 points and 20 rebounds on his way to leading the Hawks to a memorable triple overtime win against Rhode Island.  The game initially looked like it would be a laugher, as the Hawks built a 17 point lead going into halftime.  The Rams fought back, however, dominating the second half before sending the game into the extra periods, despite a last second tip-in effort by Nivins that was waved off.  The Hawks appeared to have won the game in the second overtime, when Darrin Govens hit a three to break a tie with just 4.5 seconds left, but Rhody’s Keith Cothran matched Govens trey as time expired, with an off-balance three of his own, to send it to a third overtime period.  The Hawks took control in the third overtime, thanks in large part to Nivins, and dismissed URI with a six point win.

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As we mentioned in our BGTD Early Edition today, we’re still tinkering around with a workable format for this feature.  So with the West Coast Office taking over as you easterners hunker down for the night, we’re going to try it a little differently this evening.  Let us know in the comments if you have any feedback, constructive, destructive or otherwise.

Sidenote:  is there a better value than the Fox College Sports package on your cable or dish system?  Seriously, for $5/month, you get access to dozens more college games, and at least on ours, the Big 10 Network and the CBS College Sports Network.  Great deal, and this comes from we who typically despise our cable company.

Comments Heading into the Darkness.

• The only significant upset so far today has been spastic UMass (5-8 ) spanking Dayton (14-1) in Springfield, 75-62.
• Staying in the A10, that St. Joe’s – Rhodie triple-OT thriller (92-86 St. Joe’s) at the Palestra must have been something.

3pm/4pm/5pm Games.

• There was a mild upset in Lincoln as Nebraska ran out to a big first half lead and held off Mizzou down the stretch.  From what we saw, Missouri didn’t look all that interested.
• Life on the road in the Big 10 is not going to be pleasant for the Hoosiers this year.  The Illini were only up 45-20 at the half.

6pm/7pm/8pm Games.

• We caught a good bit of the UConn-Cincy game and continue to wonder when (if?) the Huskies will reach their lofty potential.  They seemed to do just enough to make sure that they won the game – nothing more, nothing less.  As an example, nine-footer Hasheem Thabeet had three rebounds in 29 minutes.
• UCF might just have the ugliest home court in America.  Memphis probably isn’t going 18-0 in CUSA this year.
• It’s amazing how much harder Cal is playing on the defensive end this year vs. last year.  The Bears pulled off the mild upset in Washington and now stand at 4-0 in the Pac-10.  The two starting backcourts combined for 120 pts in this triple-OT game.
• We caught a bit of the Florida-Ole Miss game and the Gators looked tough (for a half).  Still don’t think the SEC has much to show this year.
• Also caught some of the Miami-BC game, and well, let’s just say that we have no idea how BC managed to beat Carolina last weekend.
• Ugh.  Also noticed Illinois St. lost its second in a row (after a 14-0) start to Indiana St. tonight, a 4-12 team.

9pm and Later Games.

• Um, Arkansas can beat top 10 teams at home, but not Mississippi St.  Nice.
• Stanford blew a lead at Wazzu, but neither of these teams look very impressive.  NIT for both.

What We Learned Today. Not a lot, actually, other than to not assume Arkansas will roll through its home schedule.  Today’s slate of games was rather uninspiring, and it doesn’t get terribly better tomorrow until 8pm, when Wake-Carolina tips off.  We love the way the Deacs have been playing lately, and they are at home, so that one could be very interesting.  ESPN should have started Gameday this weekend and made that game the focal point instead of the worthless Miami (FL) at UNC game next weekend.

College Chalktalk is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference.

By CCT Staff | January 5, 2009

PLAYER OF THE WEEK:  Rodney Green (Jr.), La Salle. It was a memorable week for Green, who became the 46th player in LaSalle history to reach the 1,000-point mark.  He did so while compiling 21 points in a win over Howard.  Green also scored 11 points during a 23-5 run which helped the Explorers pull away from Manhattan.  In two home wins this week, Green averaged 19.5 points, 5.5 rebounds and 3.5 steals per contest.   In the seven-day span, Green shot the basketball at an outstanding 73% (16-of-22) clip from the field.

HONORABLE MENTION:  Tasheed Carr (Sr.), Saint Joseph’s;  Jonathan Hall (Jr.), St. Bonaventure; Ruben Guillandeaux (Jr.), La Salle

(Note: College Chalktalk’s week runs from the previous Monday through Sunday, given the release of ‘This Week in the A-10′ each Monday morning.)

GAME OF THE WEEK: December 30, 2008.  St. Bonaventure 80, Bucknell 72 (2 OT)

The Bonnies showed their maturity under coach Mark Schmidt by the way they prevailed in this contest.  The Brown and White built an early cushion and led by 14 at the half.  The home team battled back and with under a minute left maintained a three point lead.  The Bonnies, however, did not wilt.  Chris Matthews hit one-of-two free throws to slice the lead to two, and the Bonnies then forced a jump ball to regain possession.  Jonathan Hall was able to convert a layup to tie the game and send it into overtime.  The Bonnies, led again by Hall, overcame a five point deficit in the first overtime frame to force a second.  In the second extra five, the Bonnies hit 8-of-10 from the charity stripe to ice the win.
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College Chalktalk is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference.

This Week in the A-10

By CCT Staff | December 29, 2008

PLAYER OF THE WEEK:  Ahmad Nivins (Sr.), Saint Joseph’s. Nivins was a monster this past week, averaging 20.5 points and nine rebounds per game in a 1-1 effort for the Hawks.  Against Cornell, Nivins turned in the best performance of any A-10 player during the seven-day frame, scoring 26 and grabbing 16 rebounds.  He added another 15 points in the Hawks close loss to Siena.  The senior from Hawk Hill shot a remarkable 16-of-20 over the two games, an 80% clip.  Nivins now has six double-doubles on the season.

HONORABLE MENTION:  Andrew Nicholson (Fr.) St. Bonaventure; Aaron Jackson (Sr.) Duquesne

(Note: College Chalktalk’s week runs from the previous Monday through Sunday, given the release of ‘This Week in the A-10′ each Monday morning.)

GAME OF THE WEEK:  December 23, 2008.  Fordham 60, New Hampshire 56

No, it wasn’t a battle of two traditional powers, but Fordham and New Hampshire gave the fans at Rose Hill Gym a very entertaining contest… and one in which the home fans saw many positives.  Fordham was able to record their second win of the season, and did so by making key plays down the stretch.  Both Chris Bethel and Jio Fontan converted clutch baskets and free throws in the final minute, flipping a one point deficit into a Rams win.  “That was a gutsy win tonight,” said Fordham head coach Dereck Whittenburg. “It took us a while to get going after coming back from a 12-day layoff but I think we showed signs of what we’re capable of doing tonight.”

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If you know anything about us here at RTC, you know that we love numbers.  We love breaking down game stats and looking for secrets in the offensive and defensive efficiency ratings that will help us better understand why Team X is playing so poorly or why Team Y is much better than their ranking.  We also love statistical oddities – little factoids of generally meaningless but still interesting data that we can bring up at RTC office parties and cocktail functions so that we’ll seem edumacated and wicked smart about the ins and outs of college basketball.  Or at least so that we can impress Dickie V when we next run into him at a spring training Rays game.  Yeah, that.

So here are a few of the statistical items that we find interesting as we approach conference season – perhaps you will also.  (all stats furnished by basketballstate.com)

• These guys had better avoid foul trouble. UAB’s Robert Vaden, Texas’ AJ Abrams and Virginia Tech’s AD Vassallo each average over 36 minutes per game for their teams.
• Get these men the ball! Among players scoring 15+ ppg, St. Joseph’s Ahmad Nivins (74.2%), Kentucky’s Patrick Patterson (71.5%), Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin (67.9%) and Michigan St.’s Raymar Morgan (65.3%) are burning up the nets.
• Double-Double Trouble. Of the 19 players averaging double-figure rebounds, all of them also average double-figure points.  But only two of them are 20/10 guys – Blake Griffin (23/14) and Notre Dame’s Luke Harongody (23/12).  Patrick Patterson is just a whisker shy of 20/10 (19.6/9.5).
• Betcha Didn’t Know That…
  • Stephen Curry leads the nation in scoring (30.0), but Tyler Hansbrough puts up the most points per 40 minutes (34.4)
  • North Dakota State’s Ben Woodside, he of the 60-pt explosion two weeks ago, is #2 in the nation in assists (7.6 per game).  Or that Davidson’s Mr. Curry is 12th nationally in dime-dropping.
  • Kentucky guard Jodie Meeks is averaging 24.2 ppg so far this season.  The last Wildcat to average that many points per game was Dan Issel in 1969-70 (33.9).
  • VMI’s brother tandem Travis and Chavis Holmes are 1-2 nationally in pilfering the ball (4.0 and 3.7 spg).
• Tempo Free Stats.
  • UNC is the most efficient offensive team in the nation (1.19 points per possession), but did you know that Purdue is the most efficient defensive team around (0.79 ppp)?
  • The tops of the ACC and Big East have extremely efficient teams on both ends of the court – UNC, Wake Forest, Duke, UConn, Pittsburgh and Georgetown all have large differentials (approaching or above 0.3 ppp) resulting in an extra point every three or four possessions down the court.
  • The slowest paced “good” team is Wisconsin, with 61.4 possessions per game.  UNC, unsurprisingly, is averaging 79.3 possessions per contest.
  • Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and West Virginia own the boards, each team getting at or nearly 60% of the available caroms.  It’s difficult to find a “good” team that can’t rebound the ball, but Creighton is the best candidate for this award, only getting its Blue Jay hands on 48.2% of rebounds.
  • Notre Dame only turns the ball over one of every eight possessions (13%), but Kentucky gives it away nearly a quarter of the time (24%) and has still managed to go 10-3 thus far.  Incidentally, the Irish also rarely foul opponents (#1 in the nation with only 11.8 per game).  Tennessee, with all of its reaching and grabbing pressure defense, garners 21.3 fouls per game.
  • Georgetown, Connecticut, Xavier and Oklahoma live at the foul line, each getting a quarter or more of its points from the charity stripe.  Illinois, on the other hand, only gets about 14% of its points from the line.
  • The best offensively efficient performance by one team in a legit game this season so far was UNC  vs. Notre Dame, where the Heels averaged an astonishing 1.53 ppp in that demolition.

Got any others?  Feel free to pass them along in the comments!