The Lede.  It was an exceptionally strange night out there in college basketball-land.  The best game on paper was a complete dud, while a couple that didn’t look very exciting at all turned out to be outstanding.  A team that looked unbeatable in its conference race got knocked out by an old crosstown rival, and a venerable old program with a curmudgeonly old coach who’s been telling us his team isn’t very good suffered a beatdown that nobody else saw coming.  The NPOY race may have gotten a tad more clear tonight as east coast candidate #1 struggled, but let’s wait until tomorrow and west coast candidate plays before rushing to judgment on that decision.  Here we go…

This Guy Gets It Right (C-D/C. Russell)

Your Watercooler Moment.  Buckeyes Defend Their #1 Ranking With Authority.  For some reason or another, there was an underlying sentiment among some people out in the world that Thad Matta’s Ohio State Buckeyes were not nearly as good as their #1 ranking.  We don’t personally claim to know any of those folks, but one thing is certain.  After tonight’s thorough destruction of a game Purdue team with a couple of all-americans in its lineup and a night after Pittsburgh shot itself in the foot at home against Notre Dame, let there be no question:  Ohio State is the best team in America right now.  And they might just be the favorite to cut down the nets in Houston in early April as well.  The Buckeyes unleashed a flurry of early threes against a team with a great defense, the kind of defense that doesn’t allow teams to drain five threes against it prior to the second television timeout.  Then, as soon as Purdue started figuring out how to take away that weapon, Thad Matta’s team started penetrating for open looks inside.  The scariest part for every other team in the country — NPOY candidate Jared Sullinger really wasn’t even a part of the 20-point halftime lead that OSU built.  He only had four points while veterans William Buford, Jon Diebler and David Lighty did their thing.  No other elite team in America — not even Duke with Kyrie Irving healthy — has the inside/outside balance and experience that Ohio State brings to the table.  Against lesser teams, of course, a twenty-point lead is something that really good teams like Purdue can overcome; yet, everybody watching this one knew that Purdue was simply outclassed tonight.  Short of a massive misstep, OSU will most likely hit February still unbeaten after a win at Northwestern this weekend.  A home game against Michigan follows, and then a road game at Minnesota (now without Al Nolen).  The most likely chance for the Buckeyes to lose next now appears to be the February 12 game at Wisconsin.

Tonight’s Quick Hits...

• Florida-Georgia as Must-See TV.  Tonight’s Super Tuesday matchup between Florida and Georgia was 1000 times more interesting and exciting that last week’s horrific Florida-Auburn game on ESPN.  The Gators and Dawgs went at each other tonight in a way we haven’t seen in years in the SEC (the closest comparison is some of the epic Tennessee-Florida battles in recent years), but it was Erving Walker who managed to go from the Gator goat to hero in the course of just a few game minutes.  Walker’s missed FT attempts down the stretch of regulation allowed Georgia to have a chance to tie the game on Trey Thompkins’ putback at the buzzer, but it was his 30-footer at the horn of the first overtime (see below) that gave his team another chance in the second extra period.  Florida ran away with it in the second OT, putting the Gators at 5-1 in the SEC with big road wins already at Tennessee and Georgia.  We’re never going to be completely sold on these Gators because of their personnel, but we’ll give them credit for winning two nailbiters in very tough SEC East venues this season.  Do it at Vandy and Kentucky… then they’ll have our attention.

• Kemba Walker’s Teammates, Again.  What was especially impressive about tonight’s clutch 76-68 UConn win at Marquette was that despite the NPOY candidate’s poor shooting night (5-16 FG; 0-5 from three), other players stepped up to carry the load.  Usually that’s been Alex Oriakhi, at least in the past month since Jim Calhoun called him out, but not tonight — Oriakhi only contributed 6/2 this evening.  Rather it was the talented corps of freshmen led by Jeremy Lamb’s career-high 24/3/4 assts that kept UConn competitive throughout — Roscoe Smith added 11/8 and Shabazz Napier had 11/6/4 assts/3 stls.  The reason that UConn has gone from an NIT team to a possible Final Four team in one season is twofold — 1) Kemba, obviously; but also, 2) the talented freshman class in addition to Alex Oriakhi’s development from stand-around-and-watch players to actual contributors.  If this keeps up much longer, Jim Calhoun deserves serious NCOY consideration.

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The Lede. Saturday afternoon was the first weekend day this year that the game had the sporting world to itself.  And man, was it worth it.  If five games featuring ranked teams playing each other wasn’t enough for you, you were also rewarded with the oh-so-brief return of Tennessee’s Bruce Pearl, several solid upsets, at least one RTC and, of course, another explosion from The Jimmer.  Sunday wasn’t nearly as exciting because most schools and media outlets avoided competing with the NFL playoffs, but the next two weeks are all ours, so lets enjoy it, shall we?

The Horns Hooked KU in Lawrence (AP/O. Wagner)

Your Watercooler Moment.  Texas Ends Kansas’ Home Winning Streak at 69 Games. On a weekend of impressive road victories, this was easily the most compelling.  In fact, a reasonable argument could be made that Texas winning in Allen Fieldhouse for the first time ever and breaking KU’s 69-game homecourt winning streak is the most impressive road win of the season.  Consider that there are second-semester seniors at KU who, until Saturday, had been attending games for nearly four years and never witnessed a KU loss — the looks of disbelief in the eyes of some of those Jayhawk students on Saturday surely told the tale.  We asked our Twitter followers that afternoon, even prior to Texas taking control of this game, who they thought were the teams with the greatest upside between now and March.  We think it’s fairly clear now that the top choice should be Texas — this is a team nobody will want to play in the postseason.  As much as the Horns disintegrated in a quagmire of finger-pointing and poor team chemistry last season, this year’s squad seems to trust one another.  Led by the scoring talents of Jordan Hamilton on the wing and a flypaper defense that holds teams under 40% from two and 30% from three, they have dominated the Big 12 through only four games of the conference slate (average margin of victory = 20.8 PPG).  The UT defense did something in Allen Fieldhouse that we’ve never seen occur — completely shut down the Kansas attack.  After an emotional 18-3 start (Thomas Robinson’s mother unexpectedly died on Friday night) where KU appeared on the verge of blowing out the Horns, Texas instead chipped away the rest of the half and ultimately finished the game with a 71-45 run of its own.  When was the last time anybody went +26 on Kansas in AFH?  Much of it was directly attributable to the work that Texas big men Gary Johnson and Matt Hill did on the Morris twins.  For the better part of this month, the Morrises have run roughshod over everybody in their way, averaging 38/19 combined while dominating the post — on Saturday, they combined to shoot 8-24 FG for a much more manageable 26/12, forcing the KU guards (including the still-struggling Josh Selby, who was 2-9) to beat them.  They could not, as one of the very best offensive teams in the country was completely stymied by the UT defense — there were no open looks as Bill Self’s team bricked its way to one of its worst home shooting games in years (36%).  Rick Barnes’ team is still figuring itself out, but the potential is there — the Horns already have wins at East Lansing, Lawrence and vs. UNC in Greensboro this season.  This Texas team could be scary good, but they have to continue believing in each other this time around and not let the demons re-appear; if they do so, they’re on the short list of teams capable of cutting the nets down in their home state –only 165 miles from campus in Houston — later this season.

Your Watercooler Moment, Part II. Big-Time Road Wins.  We mentioned this above, but Texas wasn’t the only team this weekend that had an impressive road win.  Villanova went into Syracuse and dropped bombs on the one-loss Orange; Ohio State stared down the Illini in Champaign and never blinked; BYU successfully navigated a trap game at Colorado State behind The Jimmer’s 42 points; and Wisconsin reminded Northwestern of the Big Ten pecking order by destroying the Wildcats in Evanston.  We’re all sophisticated enough to know that credibility as a title contender comes from winning on the road when every person in the house hates you with all of their being — each of these teams showed this weekend why they should be taken seriously.  In order to beat them, you’re going to have to play a fantastic game no matter where the venue is situated.

For our BGTD analyses of Saturday’s full slate of games, here’s Part I (early afternoon) and Part II (late afternoon).

This Weekend’s Quick Hits…

• Jared Sullinger as NPOY.  Much is being made about the outward confidence that Sullinger displayed in the huddle prior to Ohio State going on a 14-0 run in the second half of its game against Illinois on Saturday, but the bigger takeaway from that win is that Ohio State has a weapon that nobody else in the country has — a big man who can score at will inside.  Nobody can check this guy, as his 27/16/3 blks against the large front line of Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale attest.  When he doesn’t score off the catch, he forces a foul, drawing almost seven per game, and scores from the line (13-15 FTs Saturday).  The only way to stop him is to deny him the ball, but that will mean doubling him and giving up wide-open shots for his talented corps of teammates including Jon Diebler, David Lighty, William Buford and DeShaun Thomas.  Good luck with that strategy.  To compare him with another great OSU freshman post man of recent vintage, Sullinger isn’t the defender that Greg Oden was, but he’s far beyond Oden on the offensive end.
• The Jimmer as Must-See Basketball.  It was the first sellout in seven years at Colorado State, but the Ram fans all came out to see and scream at Jimmer Fredette Saturday.  Not that it mattered much, as BYU scorched CSU for 65% shooting in the first half en route to a 55-40 halftime lead and kept a good distance the rest of the way.  With top five San Diego State coming to Provo on Wednesday and CSU playing well this season, this could have been a trap game, but Fredette’s 42/4/4 assts on 11-24 shooting ensured that wasn’t going to happen.  The nation’s leading scorer, now at 26.6 PPG, clearly relishes hostile environments to show his stuff — all six of his 30-pt games this season have been away from home.  Something tells us that might change on Wednesday night.

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The Lede.  It was a big night of college basketball around the landscape, but there wasn’t much too surprising among the top teams; no, tonight’s focus is mostly on the unranked folks — teams like Colorado State, Marshall, Indiana State and Memphis.  Oh, and a 6’9 senior who some are touting as a NPOY candidate — him too.

JaJuan Johnson Gets It Done (AP/M. Conroy)

Your Watercooler Moment.  JaJuan Johnson Saves Purdue, Enters NPOY Debate.  The hope for players who make it all the way to their senior season is that they improve their game every year.  Purdue’s Johnson has shown exactly that kind of progression, going from a spot-minute backup to a dominant force in the paint in three-plus seasons.  Oh, and also outside the paint — you see, JJJ has added a jumper to the point where he’s taken 22 threes and made seven (31.8%) this year, which may not seem all that impressive until you realize that he had put up an oh-fer in his previous three seasons (0-10).  In tonight’s game against Penn State, with his team desperately needing to avoid a three-game losing streak, Johnson received a pass on the right elbow just a shade inside the arc.  In years past, he may have hesitated or looked to pass; this year he confidently shot the ball at the rim where it found nothing but net, giving Purdue a one-point lead and essentially the win with three seconds left.  With his season averages of 21/8/2 BPG on 51% shooting, Johnson has re-opened his consideration as a serious NPOY candidate.  We’re certainly not against the idea — other than perhaps Jared Sullinger, there’s probably no better big man in the country.  With six weeks left in the season, if the impressive young center can put the Boilermakers on his back and lead them to a Big Ten title, he’ll certainly be right there with the others in a wide-open field.  Check out his superb evening in the clip below.

Tonight’s Quick Hits…

• Ohio State at #1.  The Buckeyes wore it well.  After several closer-than-expected games in the last two weeks, Ohio State dominated Iowa tonight by turning up the defense and holding the Hawkeyes to only 48 points tonight in an easy win.  Things will change quickly, however, as seven of OSU’s next nine opponents are currently ranked beginning with a trip to Champaign this weekend where we predicted earlier today that Thad Matta’s team will take its first loss of the year.
• Texas.  Wow.  We knew there was a reason somewhere inside our head why we threw $10 on the Horns to win it all last weekend.  When Texas is hitting shots like they were tonight against Texas A&M — and especially Jordan Hamilton, who was 10-14 — they’re an excellent basketball team.  Among the teams hovering around the top ten, we’d argue that Rick Barnes’ team might have the most upside of any team in the second half of the season.  They already defend like crazy, holding TAMU to 42% tonight but ultimately winning the game in the first five minutes by running out to a dominant early 20-5 lead; the only issue is the occasionally spotty offense, but with Hamilton, Tristan Thompson, Cory Joseph and Gary Johnson all capable of putting up numbers, we’re slowly starting to really warm up to this team.  Big time home win tonight against the streaking Aggies.p
• Louisville’s Resilience.  We’re not sure how they’re continuing to do it, but they’re continuing to do it.  Louisville has been banged up and rotating new players into the lineup all season, and yet they continue to win games in remarkable ways.  Just a few days after the amazing comeback win over Marquette, the Cardinals ripped apart St. John’s, using Pitino’s trademark pressure defense and (what else?) three-point shooting (13-26) to terrorize Steve Lavin’s guards.  We’ve said it before, but this Louisville team reminds us more and more of some of Pitino’s early Kentucky teams — you wondered where the talent on the floor was, and before you knew it, you were down fifteen points after a barrage of turnovers and threes.  At 4-1 already in the Big East, you have to give him credit for another tremendous start under duress.

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As of Wednesday, January 19, we are down to three unbeaten teams in college basketball — #1 Ohio State, #2 Kansas and #5 San Diego State.  Previously undefeated Duke lost last week at Florida State and Syracuse lost Monday at Pittsburgh, proving once again that conference play is a completely different animal than the non-conference slate.  With only a little over six weeks left in the regular season (which seems rather impossible), it is at least feasible that one of these three schools could run the regular season table and join 1991 UNLV and 2004 St. Joseph’s as the only two teams to have done so since Bob Knight’s dominant Indiana Hoosiers way back in 1976. 

If you look at the above teams and hoped to draw a conclusion from it, you might note that UNLV and St. Joe’s played in high mid-major conferences when they ran the regular season table.  Although there were a few decent opponents who could challenge the Rebels and Hawks in those leagues, they generally enjoyed more ‘nights off’ where they didn’t have to bring their best stuff to win the game.  Does this give Steve Fisher’s Aztecs an inherent advantage over OSU and Kansas by virtue of its Mountain West affiliation?  You might initially believe so, but not according to Pomeroy’s projections. 

We talked about how difficult it is for any team to run the table in the regular season back in December when Duke was gettting some buzz in that respect prior to Kyrie Irving’s toe injury.  There are any number of factors that can cause an off night, but the biggest confounding factor is how the schedule lays out in front of them.  According to the Pomeroy data, SDSU will be favored in all but two remaining games, Ohio State all but one, and Kansas will be the favorite in each of its final thirteen games.  But that’s just the math — it doesn’t account for the increasing attention and pressure that builds on a team as it approaches March with a zero in the right-hand column, nor does it consider all the other issues (injuries, team chemistry, tiring out, etc.) that teams face as the season wears on.  That’s what we’re here for, the analysis. 

Let’s take a look at the three unbeaten teams and make an educated prediction as to when each will finally lose.  It’s going to happen; the only question is the when and where.  Last year we went 3-1 in this exercise, and if we can do so well as to keep our head above .500 again this year, we’ll be pleased. 

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A wild week shook up the rankings last week… so here it is…

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That’s Debatable is back for another year of expert opinions, ridiculous assertions and general know-it-all-itude.  Remember, kids, there are no stupid answers, just stupid people.  We’ll try to do one of these each week during the season.  We’re fairly discerning around here, but if you want to be included, send us an email with your take telling us why at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.

This Week’s Topic: The NCAA has taken a lot of flak in the last week for its seeming inconsistency in recent rulings involving Cam Newton, the Ohio State football players and Enes Kanter, among others.  Give us your ideas on how the NCAA should handle an increasingly complex environment involving the eligibility issues of its student-athletes.  Can it be consistent?

Andrew Murawa, RTC contributor

If the NCAA can at least be consistent in attempting to look out for the best interests of student-athletes, while maintaining as near a level playing field as possible for all schools to compete upon, that should be enough. In the Kanter case, it seemed to me that Kanter didn’t do anything inherently “wrong.” He accepted money from a Turkish professional team above and beyond expenses for housing, education and the like, but Kanter never showed any real interest in becoming a professional. If he had wanted to be a professional, he could have been pulling a salary overseas for years now, but he made the commitment to come to the United States and try to compete at the college level. If the NCAA was going to rule with the best interests of the student-athlete in mind, Kanter would have been eligible at some point, after an appropriate penalty and his repayment of whatever additional funds he received. The NCAA is never going to be able to come up with a one-size-fits-all solution to these types of amateurism cases, and comparing the circumstances and motives behind each individual case will never be exact, but if they can consistently rule in a manner protective of its student-athletes – while still protecting the goal of amateurism – they’ll at least be serving their mission.

Tom Wolfmeyer, RTC contributor

Transparency, transparency, transparency.  The NCAA’s biggest problem in my eyes is that nobody seems to be able to predict how rules will be interpreted or penalties handed out in a given case.  And then when the organization is questioned, they have trouble articulating the nuance and distinguishing between decisions.  The only way to combat this is with complete transparency in how their enforcement system works and the decision-making matrix that the NCAA uses to establish guidelines for punishment.  If Cam Newton’s situation is indeed different than Enes Kanter’s, and his is different than Derrick Rose’s, et al., then the NCAA needs to inform us as to the specific criteria used to make decisions and then follow those same guidelines in future, similar cases.  The way it stands now is entirely too ambiguous, which ultimately creates an appearance of the NCAA enforcement folks playing favorites and impropriety.  And isn’t that the exact thing that the NCAA purports to be working for — a level playing field with a fair and just system?

Brian Otskey, RTC contributor

I think it’s impossible for the NCAA to be consistent when it comes to every student-athlete. I know Cam Newton was basically shopped around but I don’t follow college football and don’t know anything beyond that so it’s not my place to comment on that or the Ohio State football controversy. What I do know is that Enes Kanter is a professional athlete. He played for a professional team and received $33,000 above his necessary expenses, according to the university and the NCAA. The outrage from Dick Vitale and others that the NCAA declared him ineligible to get back at John Calipari is ludicrous. Kanter would be ineligible no matter what team he played for and teams knew he was a risk while recruiting him. I can’t blame Kentucky for taking a risk with a potentially great reward but let’s stop with the conspiracy theories about this. When it comes to Josh Selby, that money wasn’t even 15% of what Kanter was paid, though it does seem strange that he’s allowed to pay it back and play while Kanter cannot. The bottom line is that it’s impossible to create one rigid standard for everyone. Each situation should be looked at on a case-by-case basis.

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1. Villanova is ranked in the top ten and may seem like its in a similar position to what it was last season when the Wildcats roared to a 20-1 start.  But things are different this time around, says head coach Jay Wright, as his team has bought into playing better defense and sharing the ball en route to a 15-1 record so far this year.  We can buy it.  Villanova looked worn down by the end of last season, and their big men (particularly Mouph Yarou) were not quite ready for prime time.  This year’s team has yet to play a road game against a legitimate team, so we’ll reserve judgment until we see how they do in trips to Storrs and Syracuse in coming weeks.
2. Ugh.   The father of the teenager who is accusing an unnamed Washington player of sexual assault in Seattle has come out to say that he is “outraged” that the player is still on the team and playing basketball.  He said that his daughter has not yet been back to school since the alleged incident, and it “boils his blood” that he feels the police and university are protecting the player.  This sounds like it’s only going to get worse before it gets better.  We have no idea who this player might be, but it’s interesting that the father said the player went to a liquor store prior to taking the girl back to her apartment.  Does this mean he’s at least 21 years old?
3. Oregon opened its brand-new, Phil Knight-funded Matthew Knight Arena on Thursday night with a win over USC.  In case you missed it or forgot what their new court looks like, take a gander at this.  Yes, in HD it looks even worse than expected.
4. We have it on great authority that Luke Winn pulled an all-nighter to get his latest Power Rankings up this week.  And here we thought all along that it was all in his head, expelled onto his laptop in a mere twenty minutes or less.  The new #1 is, not surprisingly, Ohio State, but as usual, you’ll learn more about the sport in 15 minutes reading his column that you will by spending hours in most other places the entire rest of the week.  Oh, and he also churned out a column on Duke’s loss to Florida State Wednesday night, just for good measure.
5. One day after Memphis’ second consecutive loss at SMU, Josh Pastner indefinitely suspended junior Wesley Witherspoon for mocking an assistant coach during the bus ride home, “going as far as getting on the bus’ loudspeakers and doing an impression of the coach.”  All we can say is… wow.  Who does this after an embarrassing loss?  Who does this, period?

The Lede.  It was billed as a blockbuster night of college hoops, and as happens more often than not in this sport, there was no letdown.  It culminated in this great photo snapped immediately after the game’s finish… is there any better view on a cold January night?

Completely Justified and Encouraged RTC at FSU Tonight

Your Watercooler Moment.  The Nation’s #1 Team Goes Down.  Not only was it the consensus #1 team… not only was it one of the few remaining unbeaten teams… not only was it DUKE… but the Blue Devils lost to a team in Florida State that had recently gotten thumped by Auburn, quite possibly the nation’s worst power conference team (apologies to Wake Forest and DePaul).  Set your transitive property flowcharts to ridiculous mode.  Video of the final few seconds of the game and the RTC afterward is below (fantastic coverage of the court, FSU fans — quick and complete!), but for a more detailed analysis of tonight’s upset victory, click over to our post that went up a little while after the game.

Tonight’s Quick Hits…

• The Other Unbeatens.  Ohio State, Kansas, Syracuse and San Diego State were all in action tonight, and all of them pulled through to keep their streaks alive.  All except for Syracuse were challenged tonight, which once again shows why we’ll be lucky to get to February with a single team still standing with an unblemished record.  We plan on doing an analysis later this week to dissect that very thing, so stay tuned for that.    
• Jeremy Hazell’s Return.  What can you say about this kid?  He wasn’t expected to be ready for another week or two, but tonight in his first game back after breaking his wrist AND getting shot in a robbery on Christmas night, he went for 23/2 on 10-17 shooting coming off the bench.  His arrival back in the rotation can’t come at a better time for the Hall, as the Pirates have already lost three games and really need to stay in the lower mid-pack to make a run at the postseason again.
• Clemson Pitches a Perfect Game.  Well, nearly.  This won’t sound that great until you think about it , but tonight Clemson missed only sixteen shots for its entire game against Georgia Tech, including FG and FT attempts.  The Tigers went 27-39 from the field (69%), including a scorching 11-14 from three (79%) and 22-26 from the line (85%).  The Tigers’ effective FG% of 83.3% tonight ties Virginia (vs. Howard) for the best performance of the entire season in over 5,400 games played this year.  Brad Brownell is doing a great job with this team in his first year.

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Conference play has started and it is a glorious thing. While non-conference play has its charms (who doesn’t love to see heavyweights go at it?), conference play has a special allure. Games are exciting when there is history, and that’s what conferences offer: a history of rivalries and past meetings that add a little bit of spice to each new meeting. And while old wounds may ache, it’s the new ones that sting: The best part of conference play is the home-and-away series; to better understand  the meaning of Duke and Ohio State’s close scrapes this past week, we need to understand home cooking.

Home Cooking, the Way Mom Used To Do...

“Home cooking.” When we talk basketball, we understand that this phrase is a euphemism for home-court advantage, a catch-all for the widely-discussed yet still mysterious phenomenon. Teams win more when they play on their home court. This is a fact. It’s the “why” that’s much more complicated, and there are many explanations. The “home cooking” euphemism itself is a partial explanation, metonymy for all the comforts of home: sleeping better in your own bed, being able to stick to your own routine, and, of course, literally getting to eat a home-cooked meal. Taken altogether, the psychological benefits of these things (coupled with the converse disadvantage of opponents lacking these things) is supposed to account for the edge that comes with playing at home. Of course, savvier or maybe just more cynical people hear “home cooking” and their minds turn to matters more sinister than mom’s meatloaf. “Home cooking” to these folks means referee bias in favor of the home team. The innocent and idealistic amongst us shudder at the thought, but the harsh reality is that referee bias is real.

Kyle Anderson and David Pierce in a 2009 article published in The Journal of Sports Sciences outline a series of systematic referee biases in men’s college basketball. In addition to being more likely to call fouls on the team with the lead and on the team with the fewest fouls, referees really do call more fouls on the visiting team. Also, oddly enough, these effects are more pronounced when the game is on national television. But, of course, home court advantage is bigger than just getting a few fouls going in favor of the home team, isn’t it?

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With all the ranked teams losing over the weekend, there was quite a bit of movement after the top six teams in this week’s poll.  QnD analysis after the jump…

(ed. note: we revised the original Top 25 after a data entry error surfaced)

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