RTC Top 25: Week 11

Posted by zhayes9 on January 18th, 2010

The top eight are relatively unchanged, but nobody can figure out the bottom of this poll each week…

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Morning Five: 01.13.10 Edition

Posted by rtmsf on January 13th, 2010

  1. It’s probably not a good sign for the long-term success of Bill Self’s Kansas team when players such as Tyshawn Taylor are stating on the record that he’s unsure about his role on the team this year, and suggests that “a lot of guys” feel the same way.  We would think an experienced team like Kansas would have that stuff figured out already.
  2. Here’s an interesting interview Ryan Fagan did with UNC’s fifth-year senior Marcus Ginyard where he states unequivocally that Texas is the toughest team they’ve faced this year (over Kentucky and Michigan State).
  3. After last night, the Big 12 is 114-1 at home, which is an impressive manufactured stat by the conference’s marketing folks.  The one loss was Northern Iowa over Iowa State back in early December, 63-60.
  4. Jay Bilas gives us his midseason All-Americans, and there are no huge surprises, but c’mon Jay, a month of Evan Turner is still better than Damion James, right?
  5. It appears that suspended Vols Cameron Tatum and Melvin Goins might be coming back at some point soon — both players reportedly passed drug tests immediately following the rental car incident on New Year’s Day, and Gary Parrish reports that the school has cleared those two from any wrongdoing.  The situation with Brian Williams is a little more dicey, as he has allegedly copped to the possession charge, but he may also be back on the team sooner rather than later.
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Checking in on… the MVC

Posted by jstevrtc on January 11th, 2010

Patrick Marshall of White & Blue Review is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley Conference.

Current Records and my standings, (Conference Record) (Last Week):

  1. Northern Iowa  14-1  (5-0) (1)
  2. Wichita State 13-2 (4-1) (2)
  3. Missouri State  13-3 (3-2) (3)
  4. Illinois State  12-4 (3-2) (4)
  5. Indiana State  11-5 (3-2) (6)
  6. Bradley  7-8 (2-3) (7)
  7. Southern Illinois   9-5 (2-3) (5)
  8. Creighton  7-9 (2-3)  (8)
  9. Drake  6-11 (1-4)  (10)
  10. Evansville 6-8 (0-5) (9)

STORIES OF THE WEEK

Valley sitting 10th The Missouri Valley Conference is sitting 10th right now in the Pomeroy ratings with Northern Iowa sitting up on top at #33 with Wichita State and Missouri State at #62 and #68 respectively.  In 2006 when the Valley had so much success and got four teams into the NCAA Tournament, six teams were in the top 60.  It will be interesting to see what kind of rankings they can end up with at this rate.  The conference is getting back to the national scene, but the numbers still are not where they were a few years ago and they are just hoping to get at least more than one team in the Big Dance this season.

Northern Iowa ready to run away — Speaking of Northern Iowa, the Panthers look like they could run away with the Valley this season.  With road victories already at Southern Illinois, Illinois State and Creighton, they have set themselves up for a chance to run away with the conference.  However, they still have all those teams at home.  Last season the Panthers struggled down the stretch, losing a lot of games in their own building.   A game in Wichita on January 19th is one to circle on the calendar as you may see the first game between the two leaders in the Valley.

Teams separating themselves — There are several other teams in the Valley trying to separate themselves from the rest of the pack to make the Valley less weird and wacky compared with past seasons.   Wichita State is playing extremely well right now along with Missouri State and Illinois State wanting to have a say.  A dark horse could be Indiana State.

Historically top teams need to check into rehab — Last season it was Southern Illinois suffering a losing record for the first time in ten years.  This season it may be Creighton headed to a losing season, sitting at 7-9 right now.   Southern Illinois may still end up joining them by the time the season is over as they have now lost three straight.  It is very unusual to see one of these two teams heading to the bottom of the league, but if both end up down there by season’s end, then there will be a lot more questions going forward.

TEAMS TO BEAT

Northern Iowa (2-0 this week)—As mentioned above, the Panthers are getting a lot of attention especially with a 13 game winning streak, but also as the only undefeated team in conference play after big road wins at Southern Illinois and Illinois State this past week.  Some feel that UNI deserves to be ranked.  They better be careful for what they wish for.  This week Northern Iowa gets to host Bradley and Indiana State which looks like an easy enough task, but there might be an upset in there that could turn things upside down.

Wichita State (2-0 this week)—The Shockers keep plugging along, getting wins against Creighton and Missouri State.  Wichita State had a 25 point lead at Missouri State before barely holding on at the end to get the win.  The Shockers, however, still look to play a full 40 minutes but have a lot of weapons.  The controversy in that game was that a fan in the Missouri State crowd shoved Toure Murry to the ground.  Likely no punishment for the fan.  They might have found that full 40 minutes on Saturday night as they took revenge against Creighton over last season’s MVC tournament game shocker with a rowdy home crowd and took Creighton out right from the beginning of the game.   They will be tested this week as they hit the road for both of their games against Indiana State, and a return game with Creighton in Omaha.

AVERAGE WEEK

Missouri State (1-1 this week)—Missouri State thought they could just show up to their JHQ Arena home court and notch a win, but Wichita State kicked them in the mouth to remind them that their non-conference success was nothing on which they could hang their hat.  Though they made a valiant effort to come back, it wasn’t enough, and they lost their first one at home.  They were able to rebound from that game to pound Bradley this week as Kyle Weems led the way with 30 points in that win.  Road trips to Drake and Bradley this week await the Bears.

Illinois State (1-1 this week) –The Redbirds got off on a good note this week to defeat Evansville as expected, but then laid an egg in front of a national television audience in their loss to Northern Iowa.  Though they remember the troubles with Northern Iowa over 300 days ago in the MVC Tournament finals, it was not enough for them to pull the upset.   Illinois State will fly under the radar this week against Evansville and Drake.  If they expect to be in the Valley race, they need to win both of these games this week.

Indiana State (1-1 this week)—The Sycamores have to be kicking themselves in that they had an opportunity to get a win at Bradley before losing in overtime after a furious comeback in the second half.  At least they were able to turn it around to blow out Evansville.  Indiana State is increasingly looking like a better and better team and could be in the mix in the conference race, but they cannot let games like Bradley slip away.  They also need to avoid the injury bug.  Last week it was Jake Kelly, now they hold their breath on leading scorer and rebounder Dwayne Lathan and a leg injury.   With Wichita State and Northern Iowa on the schedule this week, this could be a make or break point for Kevin McKenna and his team.

Bradley (1-1 this week)—Bradley needed overtime to get past Indiana State and then  lost at Missouri State this week.  There are doubters on whether this Bradley team can improve the rest of the season, but do not count them out.  With games against Northern Iowa and Missouri State this week Bradley needs to wake up now if they want to stay in the race.  Really, Sam Singh is in his final year at Bradley.

Creighton (1-1 this week)—Funny how both teams that have the most veteran coaches (Jim Les – Bradley), have teams on which they aren’t sure what they really have.  Creighton survived after a pesky Drake team took them to the wire earlier in the week, and then they were “not ready” for the Koch Arena crowd in Wichita.  In addition, Creighton forward Casey Harriman said, “We think we have it, but we don’t.  We need to recognize our record and where we’re at in the league. We have to do something about it.  Yeah, we are Creighton, but we’re not the Creighton of old. We’re not getting it done, and we need to pick it up.”  They need to do it in a hurry; Southern Illinois and Wichita State come to town this week.

Drake (1-1 this week)—Drake almost pulled out a win at Creighton this week, but then was able to come back against Southern Illinois to steal a victory in Carbondale.  The Bulldogs were looking to turnaround their season against SIU, and that is exactly what happened.  Drake is going to be one of those teams throughout the rest of the season that could play spoiler to other teams’ conference hopes.  This week, Missouri State and Illinois State get to head to Des Moines to play with the Bulldogs.

STRUGGLING THIS WEEK

Southern Illinois (0-2 this week)—Is Chris Lowery’s job really on the line in Carbondale?  Yes, Southern Illinois struggled mightily last season, but they were on their way back up, right?  Well, this week after the loss to Northern Iowa, there were quotes from Lowery criticizing the crowd for not getting behind his team.  Then, a writer at ESPNChicago called for Lowery’s job.  People on the Salukitalk message board were talking about bringing Lowery boo signs to the arena, as well.  There was just a full explosion on that board about Lowery.  With the collapse in the final minutes against Drake this past Saturday to give them a three game losing streak, there are probably even more boo birds out there, and questions as to whether or not Lowery’s job is secure.   They hit the road to Creighton and Evansville this week.

Evansville (0-2 this week)—Another week and another couple of Evansville losses.  But they also lost another player as Bryan Bochie decided to leave school and basketball all together.  But coach Marty Simmons thinks Bochie leaving will be a positive on the team.   Will they show up to play Illinois State and Southern Illinois this week?  Probably, but don’t expect them to walk away with a win.  Maybe when they host Drake in a couple of weeks.

WEEK AHEAD AND GAMES TO WATCH

The Valley does not have a lot of compelling matchups this week due to many top teams playing bottom feeders, but here are the best of the crop (or at least the ones you can watch on TV):

  • 1/12, Bradley @ Northern Iowa (ESPNU)—The Panthers try to stay undefeated in conference play.
  • 1/13, Southern Illinois @ Creighton (Fox Sports Net)—These two teams have historically sat at the top of the conference, but these rivals are fighting to just stay relevant in the conference race.
  • 1/16, Indiana State @ Northern Iowa (Local TV)—The Sycamores want to be in the race, and a win at Northern Iowa would be huge.
  • 1/16, Wichita State @ Creighton (ESPN2)—The second matchup in a week, this time on ESPN2 as the Bluejays try to make it a closer game at home.
  • 1/17, Illinois St. @ Drake (ESPNU)—The Redbirds have been flying a little under the radar with Wichita State, Northern Iowa and Missouri State getting all the attention.  This is a chance to showcase what they bring to the table.
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DePaul Shows Wainwright DeDoor

Posted by jstevrtc on January 11th, 2010

OK, maybe that headline’s a tad unfair, because by just about every account, Jerry Wainwright is a top guy.  Who knows, maybe being a nice guy got him a little more time at DePaul than anyone else would have received.  Either way, Wainwright was let go today as head coach of the Blue Demons.  He took over before the 2005 season and built a 59-80 record while running things there.  In a twist that might make that ol’ Yalie Stephen V. Benet proud, it’s now The Demons and Tracy Webster, the assistant who was promoted to interim head coach for the rest of this season.  The buzz on Wainwright’s departure began in earnest last night, but we should give props to Sporting News’ Mike DeCourcy for listing him as numero uno on his list of coaches under pressure in a pre-season article.

Wainwright in better -- yes, better -- days.

Wainwright’s squad had started out 5-1 this season, scoring wins over a decent Detroit team, losing a close one to current darlings Tennessee, and handing 14-1 Northern Iowa their only blemish on the season.  There were a few cupcake wins and a couple of setbacks to a pair of pretty good SEC teams in Vanderbilt and Mississippi State.  These early performances likely served to mitigate the sting left over from last year’s crippling 0-18 conference record, but then came a home loss to American (3-13), a loss at Florida Gulf Coast (5-10), and eventually three convincing losses to Big East powerhouses (at Pittsburgh, Georgetown, at Villanova) to start the conference slate that put the Blue Demons at 7-8, and turned out to be Wainwright’s undoing.  In that last game against Villanova, by the way, Wainwright actually suffered a torn MCL and broken tibia when he was hit by a diving player near the DePaul bench.

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What You Missed While Watching College Football…

Posted by zhayes9 on January 8th, 2010

Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist plus author of the weekly Ten Tuesday Scribbles and Bubble Watch columns.

With college football crowning another faux-national champion Thursday night in Pasadena, the college sports scene can officially shift its axis to basketball. While a number of college basketball diehards such as yours truly were knee-deep in mid-major box scores and enthralling non-conference tournaments since the season tipped off in mid-November, it’s perfectly understandable for our college football-fan brethren out there to have been entranced in the gridiron scene during this time. For many folks out there, college basketball truly begins when a football champion is crowned and conference play heats up, when Rece and the gang show up on our TVs every Saturday morning at 11 AM and the bubble begins to take its early shape. For those people, you sure missed plenty of exciting hoops action. To get you caught up in what has gone down thus far on the hardwood, here’s a summary for your enjoyment, divvied up into the six major conferences and all the rest:

ACC

What we’ve learned: There was much back-and-forth debate entering this season whether Duke or North Carolina represented the class of this conference. After two solid months of play, it’s fairly evident Duke has separated themselves from their bitter rival as the class of the ACC. While the Tar Heels may top Duke skill-wise up front, Carolina simply does not boast the backcourt to even contend with the Dukies’ tandem of Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith. The primary knock on Duke heading into this season was point guard play with Elliot Williams transferring to Memphis. As a true sharp-shooting 2-guard who creates his shots coming off screens in Redick-like fashion, could Scheyer handle the responsibility of running the Duke offense? The answer has been resounding in the affirmative: 19.7 PPG, 46% FG, 92% FT, 43% 3pt and an otherworldly 4.8 A/TO ratio that currently leads the nation. Another key to Duke’s early season success has been Coach K’s willingness to adjust his defense to fit his roster. Rather than employing the normal Duke on-ball pressure attack, Krzyzewski is utilizing more of a sagging defense that plays into the frontcourt depth Duke enjoys with six players that receive time at 6’8 or taller.

Scheyer Has His Devils Looking Great This Season

What’s still to be determined: After Duke and Carolina (and let’s not go overboard following the Heels loss to Charleston, they’re still clearly the second best team in this conference), who will emerge as the third contender behind the top two dogs? An ever-shifting proposition, the current edge probably goes to Florida State despite their utter lack of point guard play. The Seminoles are one of the tallest teams in the nation and have a few capable long-range shooters that get open looks when defenses collapse on Solomon Alabi and Chris Singleton. Plus, they’re off to a head start with a December win at ACC foe Georgia Tech. Plenty of folks think Clemson could be that team behind powerful big man Trevor Booker, but they lack a second scoring option and I can’t stop thinking back to their collapse at home to an inexperienced Illinois squad. It would be unwise to count out Gary Williams, and the jury’s still out on Virginia Tech and Miami due to their soft schedules, so I’ll give the current edge to Wake Forest as that third team. The road win at Gonzaga’s on-campus arena stands out, Ish Smith has turned into a fine point guard and Al-Farouq Aminu has as much pure talent as anyone in this conference.

NCAA Locks: Duke, North Carolina.

Likely bids: Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest.

Bubble teams: Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech.

Make other plans for March: Boston College, North Carolina State, Virginia.

Big East

What we’ve learned: The NCAA picture is shaping up quite similarly to last season when Louisville (regular season champion), Pittsburgh and Connecticut all received #1 seeds. There will be much back-and-forth debate about whether the top three teams this season — Syracuse, West Virginia and Villanova –– holds the edge in this conference, but does it really matter? Right now you’d be hard-pressed to find someone who doesn’t think Kansas, Texas, Kentucky and Purdue are the likely #1 seeds (of course plenty could change, we have two months of games left), while those top contenders in the Big East are likely all on the second seed line. Even of greater importance though is the obvious revelation that Jamie Dixon can coach basketball. You wouldn’t be alone if you counted out Pittsburgh following a near-loss to Wofford, a 47-point output at home vs. New Hampshire and a second half butt-kicking at the hands of Indiana, but those losses came without their most athletic player, Gilbert Brown, and their best defender, Jermaine Dixon. Those two have returned to action with the most improved Big East player Ashton Gibbs (who recently broke the all-time Pitt record for consecutive free throws made) as a fearsome trio that has carried the Panthers to road wins over previously-undefeated Syracuse and fringe-top 25 Cincinnati. If Dixon is able to coax his Panthers into a NCAA Tournament team after losing such enormous production and leadership in Sam Young, DeJuan Blair and Levance Fields, there is little debate on his merits as National Coach of the Year.

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Checking in on… the MVC

Posted by jstevrtc on January 5th, 2010

Patrick Marshall of White & Blue Review is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley Conference.

Current records and my standings (Conference Standings) (Last Week):

  1. Northern Iowa 12-1 (3-0) (3)
  2. Wichita State 13-2 (2-1) (1)
  3. Missouri State 12-2 (2-1) (2)
  4. Illinois State 11-3 (2-1) (5)
  5. Southern Illinois 9-3 (2-1) (4)
  6. Indiana State 10-4 (2-1) (6)
  7. Bradley 6-7 (1-2) (8)
  8. Creighton 6-8 (1-2) (9)
  9. Evansville 6-7 (0-3) (7)
  10. Drake 5-10 (0-3) (10)

STORIES OF THE WEEK

Northern Iowa mowing down the Valley — Those that don’t consider Northern Iowa the class of the Valley need to have their head examined (including myself, before now).  The Panthers are on an 11-game winning streak after following a tough road win against Creighton in Omaha with victories against Evansville and Missouri State to race out to a 3-0 conference record in the first week.

Should be an interesting Conference Season — After the first week, six teams have gotten out to 3-0 or 2-1 records.  The games have all been mostly competitive so far and it will be interesting to see if a few teams will break out of the pack or if they will be spending the season beating up on each other, which may hurt their postseason plans.  If this conference is going to have multiple bids this season, there will need to be a few teams that need to separate themselves, or it could end up being a one-bid league again.  I am sure Bradley and Creighton still think they have something to say about things as well.

TEAMS TO BEAT

Northern Iowa (3-0 this week) — As mentioned above, the Panthers have won three games to start the conference season.  Their shooting percentage against Creighton was not that great, but they left Omaha with a win.  It took a second half rally to get past Missouri State.  The next big test for them will come this week with a road trip to Southern Illinois and Illinois State.

SOLID WEEK

Southern Illinois (2-1 this week) — The Salukis are trying to re-establish themselves as the cream of the Valley once again.  They are definitely starting off better than they did last season.  Things looked pretty good when they took out Indiana State and Bradley earlier this week, but then they played mediocre basketball against the Illinois State Redbirds and couldn’t get over the hump to steal a victory there.  Luckily for the Salukis they get some home cooking this week as they host conference leader Northern Iowa and Drake.

Missouri State (2-1 this week) — Missouri State will be interesting to watch during conference season.  They have been a surprise so far with their non-conference record as well as two victories over Evansville and Illinois State to start conference season.  A loss against Northern Iowa was a bit expected.  The jury is still out on this team and it will be interesting to see how they react by hosting Wichita State and Bradley this week.  Adam Leonard has the nickname “Iceman” now with his cool demeanor and free throw shooting ability with the game on the line.

Wichita State (2-1 this week) — Wichita had been riding high after getting some votes for the Top 25 and several feature articles on them.   They started off the conference season, however, at Illinois State, and had their nine-game winning streak snapped.  They then summoned the moxie to turn around and get wins at home against Bradley and Drake.  This week will be an important week for them as they go to conference surprise Missouri State and host Creighton.   If Wichita is going to continue to be successful, it falls on the shoulders of David Kyles and Garrett Stutz.   In other news, the city of Wichita is excited to open a brand new arena in town, but the Shockers are probably only going to play once or twice a year there.

Indiana State (2-1 this week) — Kevin McKenna is really starting to show why he was hired to take over the reins of the Indiana State team a couple seasons ago.  This team is really playing at a high level right now.  After starting off on the wrong foot against Southern Illinois and losing Iowa transfer Jake Kelly for the season with a torn ACL, they were been able to turn things around and knock off Creighton (where McKenna used to be an assistant for Dana Altman) and then Drake on the road.  If the Sycamores get wins against Evansville and Bradley this week, look out MVC.  Another family tie for McKenna and Altman is that Altman’s son, Jordan, is the Graduate Assistant at Indiana State this season.

Illinois State (2-1 this week) — The Redbirds were another team flying high after knocking off Wichita State to open conference play with their defense, but then stumbled at Missouri State.  They were able to respond with a nice home victory against Southern Illinois.  A trip to Evansville and then hosting conference leader Northern Iowa is on the slate this week.

ROCKY START

Bradley (1-2 this week) — Bradley broke a three-game losing streak by defeating Drake on the road with Andrew Warren giving the Bulldogs nightmares to start off the conference season, but then suffered two losses against Southern Illinois and Wichita State.  Bradley was also without one of their better players in Taylor Brown against Wichita State on Sunday due to a decision by coach Jim Les.   It doesn’t get any easier for Bradley this week as they have Indiana State and Missouri State waiting in the wings for them.

Creighton (1-2 this week) — Creighton was hoping to start the slate clean after a disappointing non-conference season by getting the first crack at the Northern Iowa Panthers.  But the problems that were plaguing Creighton throughout the season against quality competition hit them again.   Bad free throw shooting and not being able to hold on to leads led to their downfall.  A road trip to Indiana State did not bring any relief either as they lost that one, as well.  This led to a two-hour players-only team meeting.  A salvaged win against Evansville on Sunday might be a start of something.  Some people are a bit too concerned about P’Allen Stinnett’s Facebook status, rather than basketball.  Drake and Wichita State are on the slate this week for the Bluejays.

ALREADY IN TROUBLE

Evansville (0-3 this week) — Evansville has started 0-3, but have been right there the whole way in each of their games, losing by small margins.   One big bright spot for the Purple Aces has been the play of freshman Colt Ryan.  In the game against Creighton on Sunday, he single-handedly kept Evansville in the game with his 26 points on 8-16 from the field and 6-11 from three-point range to go along with five assists.   They could be the spoiler in the conference this season, especially if they get their low post problems solved.  Indiana State and Illinois State probably aren’t looking forward to seeing the Aces this week.

Drake (0-3 this week) — Drake is destined to be the doormat of the league this season, evidenced by losing to Bradley, a second half breakdown against Indiana State at home and then just getting completely dismantled at Wichita State.  They now hit the road to visit Creighton and Southern Illinois, two venues that don’t like to let road teams walk away with victories.

WEEK AHEAD AND GAMES TO WATCH

Conference season is well underway and there are a few great matchups this week.

  • 1/6, Wichita St. @ Missouri State (Local TV)—Missouri State is undefeated at home this season. Can Wichita go in to Springfield to get what would look to be a solid win at this point?
  • 1/6, Northern Iowa @ Southern Illinois (ESPNU)—Both teams are at the top of the Valley right now and this winner gets a leg up in the early MVC race.
  • 1/9, Northern Iowa @ Illinois State (ESPN2) —If Northern Iowa gets past SIU earlier in the week, it will be interesting if they can continue the road run. The Panthers already have three big road wins already against the historically tough Valley home venues.
  • 1/9, Bradley @ Missouri State (Local TV)—Bradley had high expectations heading into the season, but have some very disappointing performances. The winner here will have a turnaround of sorts, whereas the loser could spiral down quickly.
  • 1/9, Creighton @ Wichita State (ESPNU)—Many say that Creighton vs. SIU is the rivalry of the Valley, but I really think that Creighton vs. Wichita State is a bigger rivalry between the fan bases and it has spilled over to the court as well. The first meeting of two within a week of each other.
  • 1/10, Evansville @ Indiana State (Fox Sports Net)—If Indiana State wants to consider themselves a contender, they should win this nationally televised game. For Evansville, it is a chance to showcase their phenom, freshman guard Colt Ryan.
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Weekly Bracketology: 01.04.10

Posted by zhayes9 on January 4th, 2010

Zach Hayes is RTC’s  resident bracketologist.  He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.

The biggest note: this is the most subjective bracket of the process. With RPI still evolving into a tool worth considering substantially, I had to construct this bracket primarily on 1) quality wins and bad losses in non-conference play, 2) non-conference SOS and 3) simple W-L record. Even conference RPI can’t be factored in yet because teams have played, at most, three conference games. With RPI rounding into form as January progresses, the bracket will switch from a more subjective process (had to use the eye test a few times, which I despise) to a more objective compilation.

  • The #1 and #2 seeds were fairly straightforward. Due to Syracuse tripping up at home to Pittsburgh Saturday, the process became much easier and the four undefeated teams remaining earned the #1 nod. Three Big East teams earned nods as a #2 seed, all with one loss: West Virginia, Villanova and Syracuse. Duke was the other obvious choice for the second line.
  • One of the more interesting cases was Ohio State. How much do I penalize them for the loss of Evan Turner? I was fairly harsh in the opening bracket following a discouraging defeat to Michigan and a blowout loss at Wisconsin. I’m fairly sure the Buckeyes will be moving further up the bracket when Turner is back in the fold a few weeks from now, but a #11 seed at 0-2 in the Big 10 and wins over California and Florida State seemed appropriate.
  • USC will not be included in any of my brackets this year. It’s a shame because they have strong computer numbers and are building a handful of quality wins including Tennessee and UNLV. Like the Pac-10 needed to be hurt any further.
  • Some notable snubs were Miami, Oregon and Saint Mary’s.  The point is pretty straightforward: I’m not going to reward you for playing a soft schedule. Miami is 14-1 but has the #85 RPI and #328 SOS in the nation with only notable wins against Minnesota and South Carolina. Oregon may be 2-0 in the Pac-10 but they have some BAD losses and need to do more to find their way into the bracket. The win at Oregon is looking stronger for St. Mary’s, but they still need to do more.
  • Since we’re so early, I did factor in “quality” losses for some teams. For example, Dayton lost by under 10 to both Villanova and Kansas State (both top-10 teams) and by 2 at New Mexico (top-20 team). They deserve some credit for those close losses.
  • Since we’re early in conference play, I determined the automatic bids among undefeated squads by which team had the highest RPI. I figured I should stay consistent with this throughout the season.

Last Four In: Northwestern, Richmond, Missouri State, Vanderbilt.

Last Four Out: Oklahoma State, Miami (FL), Saint Mary’s, Oregon.

Automatic bids: Vermont, Temple, Duke, East Tennessee State, Kansas, West Virginia, Weber State, Radford, Purdue, Pacific, William & Mary, UAB, Butler, Cornell, Siena, Western Michigan, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Quinnipiac, Murray State, California, Army, Kentucky, Western Carolina, UT-San Antonio, Texas Southern, Oakland, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, Louisiana Tech.

Bids per conference: ACC (7), Big East (7), SEC (6), Big 12 (6), Big 10 (6), Mountain West (3), Atlantic-10 (3), Pac-10 (2), Missouri Valley (2).

Next bracket: January 18

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Checking in on… the MVC

Posted by jstevrtc on December 28th, 2009

Patrick Marshall of White & Blue Review is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley Conference.

Current records and my standings (Last Week):

  1. Wichita State (11-1) (2)
  2. Missouri State (10-1) (1)
  3. Northern Iowa (9-1) (3)
  4. Southern Illinois (7-2) (4)
  5. Illinois State (9-2) (5)
  6. Indiana State (8-3) (6)
  7. Evansville (6-4) (7)
  8. Bradley (5-5) (8)
  9. Creighton (5-6) (10)
  10. Drake (5-7) (9)

STORIES OF THE WEEK

Valley wins the first MVC-MWC Challenge — Northern Iowa defeated Wyoming to take the Valley to win 5-4 the first ever MVC-MWC Challenge.   UNI, Illinois State, Missouri State, Indiana State, and Wichita State were the winners while Creighton, Southern Illinois, Bradley, and Drake lost.  But you look at who they lost to (New Mexico, BYU, San Diego State, and UNLV) and it still provides some questions on which conference is actually better.   But for this season, the Valley can claim they are better than the Mountain West Conference.

Surprises at the top — A year ago, you would not have seen Missouri State and Wichita State at the top of the conference with Creighton and Bradley towards the bottom.  But this is how the crazy Valley non-conference season has gone so far.  The Valley is an impressive 80-32 (.714) in non-conference play with some nice wins against top level conferences that have been missing over the past few seasons.

Conference Play starts this week — Missouri Valley Conference play starts with each team playing three games over the next week.  It will start out fast and furious and there will be some teams that will jump out of the pack early, but will be down to the wire this season as most teams feel that they can win the conference.

NON-CONFERENCE EVALUATION

  • Missouri State – 10-1 is a lot better than the 6-5 record I predicted before the season started.  The Bears have been the surprise of the Valley so far this season.  It has been behind the solid play of Kyle Weems and Eastern Kentucky transfer Adam Leonard.  They have wins over Auburn, Tulsa and Air Force with their only blemish being an overtime loss to close out the non-conference at Arkansas last week.  The conference slate starts fast for them with Evansville, Illinois State and Northern Iowa this week.
  • Wichita State — The Shockers are not much of a surprise to me because they have done exactly how I expected them to this season.  Fans in Wichita are excited about seeing what they were expecting when Gregg Marshall came in to run the program after Mark Turgeon left. Wins over Iowa, Texas Tech, and TCU are their big wins with a loss to Pitt in the CBE Classic their only faltering.  A trip to Illinois State awaits and then they host Drake and Bradley this week to open Valley play.
  • Northern Iowa — After losing against Depaul in the opening round of the Paradise Jam, many were skeptical that the Panthers could be as good or better as they turned out to be last season.  However, they turned things around rather quickly and have garnered wins over Boston College and Siena and swept the State of Iowa series against Iowa St. and Iowa.   They are on an eight game winning streak as they visit Creighton to open conference play before hosting Evansville and Missouri State.
  • Southern Illinois – At times, Southern Illinois look like they are back on track this season.   They haven’t gotten key wins against UNLV and St. Louis to make me feel like they are the Salukis of old.   They will be tested early as Indiana State comes to town, then they hit the road to Bradley and Illinois State.
  • Evansville — With all the rebuilding Evansville has had to do this season, they are actually playing like I expected with their 6-4 record.   They took Butler and Western Kentucky to the limit, but came up a little short in those upset bids.  The Purple Aces, however, could start off 0-3 in the conference with Missouri State, Northern Iowa and Creighton on the slate.
  • Indiana State — The Sycamores are an interesting team sitting at 8-3.  They won against Colorado State, Western Kentucky and Oral Roberts, but then lost winnable games against Coastal Carolina and Ball State.  With the on-again/off-again suspension of point guard Harry Marshall, the rollercoaster season could continue.  Three of the first four games are on the road in MVC play with Southern Illinois, Creighton and Drake on the slate this week.
  • Bradley — Expectations were high in Peoria to start the season, but while a season-opening road loss at BYU and another to Oklahoma State in Las Vegas were somewhat expected, their three game losing streak to close out the non-conference season was not.  Injuries have plagued the Braves but there are enough veterans on the team to pick up the slack.  A win against Illinois will look nice down the line and will help the Valley as a whole, but their non-conference record will hurt them in the long run.  Bradley will try to get back on track with a game at Drake, but then next up on the slate is Southern Illinois and Wichita State.  I still question whether a Bradley team can finish in the top four in the Valley.
  • Creighton — Creighton has probably been the most disappointing team in the Valley so far this season with the highest expectations.  Creighton scheduled up this season by playing in a solid Old Spice Classic field and going on the road against Dayton, George Mason and New Mexico.  Unfortunately all of those road games turned into losses.  What made it even worse is that all of those games were winable and Creighton had leads late in the game that they couldn’t close out.  Their five wins at home have been against patsies like Houston Baptist, Savannah St. and Florida A&M.  So unless Creighton end up winning the Valley decidedly, there is a chance they will not fulfill the annual expectation of a 20-win season.  They open up with Northern Iowa at home and then hit the New Year’s road trip to Evansville and Illinois St.
  • Illinois State — Many were skeptical about the Redbirds’ non-conference slate again this season to really know how tough this team might be.  Well, the gravy train stopped with a loss against the Bracketbuster return game with Niagara and then the next game at Ohio.  Illinois State learned from those losses with a nice road win at Utah as part of the MVC/MWC Challenge.  The Redbirds host Wichita State and Southern Illinois and then head over to Missouri State this week.  Will they start 3-0, 0-3 or somewhere in between?
  • Drake — Drake shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone how they have been this season.  Other than their dream season a couple of years ago, Drake has performed at its normal bottom-of-the-conference ways.  Losing to SIU-Edwardsville in Drake’s own tournament was the low point so far, and losing to Iowa who has struggled heavily this season really doesn’t make the Bulldogs look very good.  Bradley, Wichita State and Indiana State start the conference season for them.

WEEK AHEAD AND GAMES TO WATCH

Conference season goes into full swing this week and there are some intriguing matchups to kick things off.

  • 12/29, Northern Iowa @ Creighton (Local TV)—This is the first time the top two conference teams from the previous season have met to kick off the following conference season in about 20 years. Creighton needs to get off on an early start against the conference favorites and needs the win at this point in the season more than the Panthers.
  • 12/29, Wichita State @ Illinois State—This will be a key early matchup between two teams who want to be in the conversation at the end of the season. The Shockers have had problems on the road in conference play. They will need to turn that around to be in the race.
  • 1/1, Southern Illinois @ Bradley—Both teams are going in opposite directions and it will be interesting to see if Bradley can rebound from a disappointing non-conference season.
  • 1/1, Illinois St. @ Missouri State—The Bears are undefeated at home this season so far and the surprise team of the Valley gets its first big conference test.
  • 1/3, Missouri State @ Northern Iowa—Both teams are in the running for the MVC crown at this point. The Panthers want to prove that they are the cream of the Valley.
  • 1/3, Southern Illinois @ Illinois State—Already after one week, one of these teams could be in a lot of trouble after this game is over as both teams have a challenging first week of conference play.

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Ten Tuesday Scribbles…

Posted by zhayes9 on December 22nd, 2009

RTC contributor and bracketologist Zach Hayes will deliver ten permeating thoughts every Tuesday as the season progresses.

1. While the slate en route to West Virginia’s 8-0 start hasn’t been laced with eventual NCAA Tournament participants (the exception being a neutral court win over Texas A&M), the start is nonetheless impressive for a Bob Huggins-coached squad expected to remain near the top-10 from start to finish. While Da’Sean Butler plays the role of go-to scorer and senior leader, it’s sophomore forward Kevin Jones that’s been the stabilizing force behind the undefeated start. Jones has scored in double-figures every single game for Huggins, including 23 on a wildly efficient 9-10 from the floor in the squeaker against Cleveland State last Saturday. Jones also leads West Virginia in rebounding and has upped his FG% nearly 10 points from his up-and-down freshman campaign. As long as Jones keeps playing consistent basketball, he should complete a formidable frontcourt along with Devin Ebanks, Wellington Smith, John Flowers and Cam Thoroughman.

2. Yes, I realize it’s only December, and talking about awards handed out in April seems like a waste of time. Still, just for fun, it’s not out of the question to give Northwestern’s Bill Carmody the early nod for National Coach of the Year. Many preseason prognosticators felt this could be the year the Wildcats break their embarrassing streak of never reaching the NCAA Tournament. When all-Big Ten performer Kevin Coble and complimentary piece Jeff Ryan both went down with season-ending injuries early, all hope was lost. Fast forward to late December and Northwestern has resurrected their season behind the 1-2 punch of Michael Thompson and Jeff Shurna (who should both be back in 2010-11 along with Coble). Carmody’s bunch fell to Butler in November, but have rebounded with wins in Chicago against Notre Dame and Iowa State, a victory at NC State and a home win vs. Stanford.

3. Each and every year, college basketball fans debate which conference holds the mantle as the strongest in the land. A season ago, the Big East clearly garnered that honor. Heading into 2009-10, many felt the ACC or Big Ten would prove the strongest, while the Big East emerged in the early weeks as the frontrunner behind five top-15 teams in Syracuse, West Virginia, Connecticut, Georgetown and Villanova. After that elite group, one can debate eventual in/out status for the rest of the conference. But from top to bottom, no conference tops the Big 12 this season. The best two teams in the nation, Kansas and Texas, reign are supreme at the top. Kansas State is climbing the ranks and Texas A&M appears on the fringe of the top 25. Texas Tech’s first loss came on Saturday at Wichita State following a 10-0 start. Oklahoma State has only one falter and Oklahoma should hit their stride as the season wears on. Even the lower squads like Baylor, Iowa State and Missouri are dangerous. The early nod goes to the Big 12 as the premiere conference in college basketball. Playing the best individual basketball in the conference is not Aldrich or Collins or James or Warren, but Kansas State’s Jacob Pullen.

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Monday’s Conference Check-Ins…

Posted by rtmsf on December 22nd, 2009

We’re back from a busy weekend and heading into a really light week, but that doesn’t mean our correspondents are taking a break!

ACC – Steve Moore  (READ MORE)

UNDER THE BIG TOP:  Much has already been written about the UNC-Texas shootout/circus at The-House-That-Jerry-Built.  The 103-90 Texas win proved that Roy Williams’ Tar Heels still have plenty to do on the defensive end, as UNC gave up 100 points in regulation for the first time in Williams’ tenure there.  Does this mean that UNC is not good enough to reach the Final Four?  Absolutely not.  If there’s any team that needs time to find its identity, it’s this one, considering all the new faces.  I may have bumped UNC out of the top spot this week (and I may think Roy Williams is a crybaby), but I still expect the Heels to rise back to the top of the ACC (notice how I’m already backing off my crazy Maryland prediction from earlier in the year). (…)

Missouri Valley – Patrick Marshall of White & Blue Review (READ MORE)

MVC-MWC Challenge winding down—The Valley continues to lead the challenge against the Mountain West Conference 4-3 heading into the final weekend of games.  Illinois State went on the road to defeat Utah and Creighton had a chance to close out the conference’s victory but lost a huge lead on New Mexico and left Albuquerque with a loss.  Now it is up to Drake and Northern Iowa this coming weekend to close out the first year of a several year agreement for each conference to play one another.  In the coming years all of the Challenge games will be played in a one-week time period instead of throughout the non-conference season.  (…)

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