Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

It was easy to get energized about Vanderbilt’s chances next season once the somewhat surprising news was announced that versatile swingman Jeffery Taylor would return for his senior campaign. Taylor joining forces with an experienced and talented guard tandem of John Jenkins and Brad Tinsley, along with efficient big man Festus Ezeli and quite a bit of depth, immediately gave folks in Nashville reason to believe they could contend with the powerhouse roster Kentucky assembled in the SEC. While those are four legitimate reasons for excitement – it’s awfully rare a team without a brand name like Duke, Carolina, Kentucky or UCLA returns their top four scorers (including three possible first round picks) from a top-15 efficient offense in the one-and-done era – I won’t be completely sold on Vanderbilt’s chances to usurp the Wildcats, or even fend off Florida, if their team defense doesn’t improve dramatically. The ‘Dores ranked a meager 88th in the nation in defensive efficiency last season, a mark good for tenth in the SEC, well behind the likes of both Kentucky and Florida. Their inadequacies on defense were a major reason why those of us tantalized by Vandy’s talent last season was so dumbfounded when they couldn’t quite put it all together on a sustained basis and why they ultimately dropped their final two games of the season to Florida and to #12 seed Richmond. The most confusing part: Vandy seemingly has the ancillary parts to be a strong defensive club. Taylor is regarded by NBA scouts as a premier stopper on the perimeter and Ezeli ranked 16th in block percentage in 2010-11.

Taylor needs to coax his teammates into playing stronger defense

The near-unanimous reaction following the NBA Draft declaration deadline was that Texas was the big loser. This isn’t necessarily false, but were we all that surprised Jordan Hamilton and Tristan Thompson bolted for the pros, especially once it was known Thompson would be a lottery selection? Playing with a fellow Canadian in Myck Kabongo may seem enticing until millions of dollars are staring you in the face. Hamilton was never suited for a structured college game, either, and could really take off in the pros as a polished, explosive scorer capable of putting up points in bunches. The most shocking decision was that of Cory Joseph, who opted to leave school primarily on the basis of one workout just prior to the deadline, a decision that very few saw coming from an undersized point guard without mature floor instincts. Joseph likely saw the writing on the wall – that he’d be playing primarily as a two-guard opposite Kabongo and this move would devastate his draft stock even more – and ditched while he had a chance at the first round. Ben Howland must have been even more crushed than Rick Barnes, though. With Derrick Williams and Momo Jones out in Tucson, the opportunity was there to re-establish UCLA’s status as the premier Pac-10 representative after two tumultuous seasons. Tyler Honeycutt and Malcolm Lee are far from locks to have their name called in the first round, yet both made the abrupt decision to forgo their remaining eligibility and take their talents to the NBA. With Honeycutt and Lee joining forces with Reeves Nelson, Josh Smith, Lazeric Jones, Jerime Anderson, Tyler Lamb and incoming two-guard Norman Powell in the fray, UCLA had a top-10 roster had the parts stayed together. It’s a shame, really.

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Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

Some bad news for those of you expecting the bubble to shrink in the next two weeks: the number of potential bid stealers is smaller than I can ever remember. The most likely candidates in previous years were out of Memphis-dominated Conference USA, Butler-dominated Horizon or WCC-dominated Gonzaga, but this season none of those three perennial powerhouses are locks for the dance, rendering each conference a one (or two in the WCC with Saint Mary’s) league. In fact, all three likely need to win their respective tournaments to feel safe on Selection Sunday. The Missouri Valley is also shaping up as a one-bid league for the fifth straight year and BYU, San Diego State and UNLV (playing the tournament at their home floor in Vegas) are so far ahead their Mountain West competition it’s highly unlikely any major upsets come to fruition. The same theory applies to Utah State in the WAC. One team that I do feel could snag a bid from a mediocre bubble team is Southern California out of the Pac-10 in a replay of 2009 when the #6 seed Trojans at 9-9 in the league rode DeMar DeRozan, Daniel Hackett and Taj Gibson to a surprising automatic berth. With 12 losses overall on the season – including black marks against Rider, Bradley and TCU from early in the campaign– Kevin O’Neill’s squad clearly needs to complete a sweep of the conference tournament to go dancing. Depth and consistent scoring has been a recurring issue all season, but the talent is in place with a frontcourt duo of Nikola Vucevic (17.5 PPG, 10.3 RPG) and Alex Stephenson and the growing comfort level of point guard transfer Jio Fontan, who tied a season-high with 21 points in Thursday’s upset win over Arizona. USC also has the highest defensive efficiency in the Pac-10 and limited Arizona star Derrick Williams to just eight points. Watch out for the Trojans in two weekends as a sneaky candidate to turn the Pac-10 a four-bid league.

Nikola Vucevic and USC is a possible bid stealer in two weeks

A tip of the cap is in order for Frank Martin and his Kansas State Wildcats. Most skewered the hard-nosed coach for losing control of his program during K-State’s numerous low points –from the loss in Kansas City to UNLV sans Jacob Pullen and Curtis Kelly to the embarrassing blowout at rival Kansas with Gameday in the house to once-heralded recruit Wally Judge leaving the team – but it’s my opinion that Martin’s demanding style may have actually kept this team afloat while coaches that run their program with a softer hand may have had a total implosion on their hands. The combination of Martin’s constant yearning for focus, effort and execution out of his players and a senior in Pullen who flat-out refused to let his team hit rock bottom has led to a resurgence that would have been unfathomable three weeks ago. If you told me in early February that Kansas State, amidst all their turmoil and turnover, would win in Austin against what appeared to be a powerhouse Texas squad, I’d never have believed you. The Wildcats now shape up extremely well not only to make the NCAA Tournament – stellar RPI/SOS, wins over Kansas, Texas and Missouri and an ascent up the Big 12 standings – but also to make a Sweet 16-type run behind Pullen, the improving play of Curtis Kelly and the underrated contributions of Rodney McGruder.

BYU doesn’t exactly have the most glowing NCAA Tournament history. In fact, their first round victory over Florida last year was BYU’s first tournament win since 1993. The same reprieve is often played out under the bright lights of March: the softer, finesse, untested Cougars face a tough, physical, athletic opponent from a power six league and go into the fetal position. My admiration for Fredette was the singular reason I chose BYU as my second round upset pick last year to beat K-State. After an opening 10-0 run, BYU was thoroughly dismantled by the springy Wildcats and Jacob Pullen outplayed his counterpart Fredette. This trend was precisely why I believed San Diego State would take care of business last Saturday. Sure, the Cougars took care of business in a building they rarely ever lose in late January, but the Aztecs are that nightmarish matchup – a team full of bouncy, athletic, board-banging skilled players like Kawhi Leonard and Malcolm Thomas – that give the Cougars fits historically. Then BYU came out and blocked seven shots. They were barely out-rebounded. Thomas scored nine points and Leonard was limited to six field goals. Along with Fredette’s wizardry and the jump shooting ability of his teammates, I was doubly impressed by BYU’s attitude and toughness in such a raucous environment against an opponent I perceived as a matchup problem. Their zone defense was fantastic and their offensive execution – both in the halfcourt when Fredette was constantly doubled off of ball screens and in transition opportunities – was picture perfect. I’m a buyer.

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Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

- I deemed Saturday’s Washington-Arizona game appointment viewing with the specific intent of watching Derrick Williams for 40 minutes. I had seen Williams play multiple times this season, but mostly for small snippets against weaker competition in the Pac-10. Williams is an absolutely outstanding collegiate player that flashes moments of brilliance on the basketball court. He attacks the glass with ferocity, can face up or back an opponent down and is outstanding in isolation situations. I’m not sure Williams has the personality or the attitude to completely take over long stretches of a game like Kemba Walker, Jimmer Fredette or Nolan Smith, but nobody utilizes his possessions with more proficiency than Williams. When he chooses to enter another gear, as he did for the majority of the final five minutes of an Arizona win that effectively clinched the Pac-10 regular season title, he’s impossible to contain. If I were the Cavaliers GM – although I shouldn’t assume they’ll win the lottery based on that city’s tortured sports past – I’d snag Williams #1 overall over the likes of Kyrie Irving, Perry Jones, Jared Sullinger or any other entry. You think Williams is a special prospect now, just wait until he’s playing with an NBA-caliber pass-first point guard. His all-around excellence in isolation situations and ability to knock down shots anywhere on the floor are tailor made for the pros. I see him developing into a better David West. The only area Williams needs to shore up is avoiding foul trouble. Arizona must have their superstar on the floor for more than 29.2 PPG in the NCAA Tournament if the Wildcats want to advance. Williams has picked up four or more personals in eight Pac-10 games this year.

Derrick Williams clutch block clinched Saturday's win over Washington

- Duke shouldn’t be #1 in the nation. I think most of us agree with that sentiment. Thankfully, we adore a sport where these kinds of things are irrelevant, especially in late February. What bothers me is that most have Duke pegged as a #1 seed over Kansas and BYU, two candidates much more deserving of this honor than the Blue Devils. The Cougars resume is actually incredibly impressive, more so than their MWC brethren San Diego State. The Fightin Jimmers have five wins vs. the RPI top-30 and Duke has two. BYU beat San Diego State, Arizona, Utah State, Saint Mary’s and swept UNLV. Duke’s best win after North Carolina is Kansas State followed by UAB (currently out) and Michigan State (bubble). The Blue Devils have yet to beat an NCAA Tournament team on the road. Sure, this has plenty to do with the fragile state of the ACC, but don’t overlook Duke’s annual resistance to play true road games out of conference. Plus, since when do we provide Duke a scheduling excuse over a MWC team? The overall records are identical. The reason Duke is first in the polls is basically because they didn’t lose during a week they played Virginia and Georgia Tech. Vaulting Duke on the back of those  two wins over the entire body of work of, say, Ohio State and Pittsburgh, is ridiculous enough in itself. Handing them an undeserving #1 seed at this stage in the season is an even worse idea (luckily we still have 20 days till Selection Sunday, so this is largely irrelevant as well, but it sure is fun to debate, no?).

I’m hearing plenty of candidates thrown out there for National Coach of the Year, and none of them are egregious. Coaches like Mike Brey, Steve Fisher, Matt Painter, Jim Calhoun, Steve Lavin and Sean Miller have all done outstanding jobs this season leading their teams to unforeseen heights. To me, the coach of the year is a runaway and his name hasn’t been mentioned: Rick Pitino. I was initially hesitant to buy into the Cardinals, especially after they won all their non-conference games in the comfort of the KFC Yum Center and both Butler and UNLV underachieved relative to expectations. Now that I’ve watched Louisville sweep Connecticut, edge Syracuse and West Virginia, pull off an epic comeback against Marquette and down St. John’s, the magic act Pitino has pulled in the face of tremendous adversity is becoming more and more evident. All five starters from last year’s #9 seed squad left. His top freshman didn’t qualify. His leading returning scorer hasn’t played a minute. Still, by pulling out his old tricks of a relentless full-court press, switching defenses and an abundance of threes, the ‘Ville has jumped from likely NIT team to a #4 seed in my latest bracket. Say what you want about his forays into the back of Italian restaurants or his failed NBA coaching stints, but in case anyone forgot, this season was a definite reminder: Rick Pitino can motivate, prepare and instruct college athletes better than anyone in the business. Read the rest of this entry »

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

The Bob Cousy Award for the best point guard in college basketball released their finalists last week. The majority of the selections are uncontroversial and fair, from Kemba Walker to Jimmer Fredette and even Cleveland State’s Norris Cole. The biggest problem I have with the list has to be Illinois’ Demetri McCamey over Wisconsin’s Jordan Taylor. This may sound like an easy argument to make after Taylor’s heroic second half to dethrone Ohio State on Saturday, but this was a glaring mistake as early as last Thursday when Illinois coach Bruce Weber benched McCamey for the start of the Minnesota game. The issues involving McCamey are festering and his production has dramatically declined. The senior point guard has scored in double figures just twice in his last six games and Illinois is 2-4 during that stretch. McCamey has notched 25 assists and 21 turnovers during that six-game stretch while Jordan Taylor leads the nation in the category. It’s also the peripheral comments that have stood out involving Weber and his point guard, an on-and-off feud dating back to late last season when his frustration with McCamey extended to the bench in a crucial late March contest with Wisconsin. Weber ranted that runners, agents and third-party people are in McCamey’s ear telling him he should be a pro and, following a 1-10 shooting performance against Purdue, said in his postgame comments that the offensive difference in the second half for the Boilermakers was “all dribble penetration” by Lewis Jackson and that some players “don’t give quite the effort on the other end” when they don’t make a shot. Keep an eye on this developing situation in Champaign. The Illini should feel fairly safe about their NCAA Tournament chances, but their seed is dipping quickly and McCamey is at the epicenter of this slow collapse.

McCamey and Weber are clashing again

Two championship programs, two legendary head coaches, two separate issues with zone defenses. Both Syracuse and Connecticut have slipped a bit from their quick starts to the season and the main reasons are both related to zones. Syracuse’s best offensive lineup is with C.J. Fair and Kris Joseph at the forward spots and Rick Jackson at center, but this leaves them vulnerable in their patented 2-3 zone because it’s such a small lineup. The Orange also miss the length and defensive IQ of Andy Rautins at the top of their zone and Big East teams are shooting 47% from three in Syracuse’s losses as a result. As Casey Mitchell, Kyle Kuric and Jeremy Hazell have shown in recent games, getting open looks from beyond the arc isn’t quite the challenge at it was a season ago. The effort on close-outs, rotation and communication of the 2-3 this year has been inconsistent and could lead to the early demise of a Syracuse team that really only has three quality wins this season – Notre Dame, at St. John’s, at Connecticut. The Huskies have their own issues with a matchup zone and it was glaringly obvious during that loss at home to the Orange. Unlike Pittsburgh who utilized Nasir Robinson around the free throw line to attack holes in the zone through passing, shooting or penetration, Connecticut doesn’t have a forward who’s comfortable in this spot – Alex Oriakhi and Charles Okwandu looked lost at times vs. the Orange — and they haven’t been a particularly good outside shooting team since Kemba Walker’s slump began. Teams are noticing UConn’s struggles against a zone defense. Jim Calhoun better prepare to see it plenty come March.

Kansas State’s season was on the line Monday and it showed. Falter last night and, with a game in Austin still on the slate, the best case scenario for the Wildcats is 8-8 in the Big 12 provided they beat Missouri. Although the NIT remains a respectable tournament that any team should be proud to participate in (contrary to what you may hear from Jacob Pullen), a program ranked #3 in the nation preseason slipping to that type of depth is unacceptable. Last night confirmed one of my longstanding beliefs about the sport: motivation has the power to surpass any other factor – from talent disparity to coaching to home court atmosphere – when it comes to college basketball. With the #1 team in the nation both in the polls and in the RPI coming to Manhattan, along with the emasculation those same Jayhawks put on their in-state foes a few weeks ago in Lawrence, motivation was at a fever pitch. For one night, Jacob Pullen backed up the preseason All-American hype, notching the second most points ever against a #1 ranked team, barely trailing Elvin Hayes’ legendary performance for Houston against #1 UCLA in 1968. The 62^nd most efficient offense in the country shot over 50% and notched 84 points against a top ten efficient defense. They dominated points in the paint and neutralized the Morris twins. Frank Martin has been telling anyone who will listen that his team is making strides. Last night was an enormous leap, and with another top-50 win opportunity in Missouri coming to Bramlage on February 26, Pullen may not have to worry about the torturous NIT after all.

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Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

Isn’t it fantastic that Duke-North Carolina means something again? Last year’s Blue Devil dominance coupled with a bleak NIT season from their Tobacco Road rivals produced a lackluster two-game set between these hated competitors culminating in a Senior Day thrashing for the ages at Cameron. With Kyrie Irving buoying a seemingly unstoppable Duke attack and UNC still figuring themselves out, it looked to be more of the same refrain during non-conference play, but obviously much has transpired since then: Tyler Zeller has grasped a go-to scorers role, Kendall Marshall has supplanted the now-departed Larry Drew at the point and, most importantly, Irving suffered a toe injury that’s kept him on the sidelines and Duke has had to change their style once again. The last point could loom large during Wednesday’s meeting in Durham. I fully expect Duke to win, but the pressurized, relentless, full-court attack that Duke employed with Irving was going to pose a challenge for Marshall setting up the Tar Heel halfcourt offense and containing the much quicker Irving defensively. Given Duke’s adjustment to a halfcourt-oriented offense with an emphasis on screening for Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith, the Blue Devils won’t provide as much of a headache for the inexperienced Marshall. Thus, I expect a closer-knit affair on Wednesday, and any tight Duke-UNC game is a victory for college basketball.

Roy Williams has his Heels peaking as they head into Cameron

It might surprise you to know that Arizona has 20 wins already. The quick-fix rebuilding job Sean Miller has orchestrated in Tucson is nothing short of extraordinary, but it’s appropriate to point out that none of it would have been possible if not for the Tim Floyd disaster at USC. Most forget that Pac-10 POY frontrunner Derrick Williams and Arizona starting point guard Lamont Jones were both USC commits under Floyd until the O.J. Mayo situation surfaced, Floyd resigned and the two talented recruits signed on with Miller at Arizona. Williams (19.5 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 63% FG) has molded into a lottery pick as a sophomore and Jones’ heroics down the stretch at California provided the Wildcats with a breathtaking road victory and propelled them to first in the Pac-10. To claim Miller’s reloading effort as mostly luck is doing the fantastic coach a disservice, though. Miller’s coaching acumen was displayed during his 120-47 run at Xavier and his recruiting has already produced a 2011 recruiting class that rivals Lute Olson’s top efforts. Where this Arizona program stood two springs ago during their frantic and humbling search for a head coach to their position today atop the conference and with a bright future ahead is staggering.

The road ahead is treacherous for Baylor, which is both a good thing and a bad thing. On one hand, the resuscitated Bears have an ample amount of opportunities to collect quality wins down the stretch with trips to Austin, Columbia and Stillwater and a return trip from the Longhorns on the docket. On the other hand, good luck winning those games! The fact that Baylor is even in the discussion (their best non-conference win is Pac-10 bottom feeder Arizona State at home) shows the current state of the bubble in a 68-team environment. Regardless, the development of Perry Jones should give Bears fans hope that a late season surge could be approaching. The multi-talented future lottery pick is making tremendous strides lately. He’s scored in double-digits every game in Big 12 play including 24 points against Oklahoma State and a banner performance on Saturday at A&M where he scored 27 points on 9-16 FG and 9-9 FT. Jones is becoming much more comfortable knocking down a smooth mid-range jumper, attacking the glass and playing within Scott Drew’s offense. At 14.7 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 57% FG in over 33 MPG, Jones has quietly posted a stellar freshman campaign in the shadow of Sullinger, Jones and other prominent diaper dandies.

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Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist at Rush the Court.

- As we head into the crucial weeks of February, three groupings of teams will likely emerge: one group that’s been playing over their heads through the first couple months and will quickly take a nosedive down the rankings as their flaws become more evident and exposed, one that has likely hit their peak and will consistently maintain their current ranking for the remainder of the season and, the most intriguing group, the teams that will continue to improve, develop and progress before hitting their crescendo right around March Madness. Some possible candidates for the third group include Texas, Missouri, Washington, Connecticut and North Carolina. The most obvious possibility for rapid improvement as we head into the stretch run, though, has to be Kentucky. One could make an argument they’ll be a top five team in the nation by tournament time as their trio of ultra-talented freshmen — Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones and the incredibly undervalued Doron Lamb – see their comfort level rise and their overall floor games advance. Regardless of the personnel upheaval that John Calipari welcomes during his recruitment of one-and-done players, his team’s always defend. This Kentucky team, led by the lockdown length of DeAndre Liggins and the wily experience of junior Darius Miller, has proved no different, ranking tenth in the nation in overall defensive efficiency and fourth in opponents two-point FG%. Before you point out that last year’s Kentucky team led by John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins – a team that was probably more talented with five first round selections – flamed out in the Elite 8, remember that this Wildcats squad can do what last year’s version could not: make perimeter jump shots. Kentucky is shooting 40% from three as a unit this season, good for 17^th in the country.

Knight and UK still have room to grow, a scary thought for their SEC opposition

- Jimmer Fredette has become the face of college basketball. Due to his dynamic scoring prowess, cult-like following and unusual name (seriously, if Chris Smith was doing this, would this fad be quite as viral?) my Twitter feed was flooded last Wednesday night with everything Jimmer from friends that I never knew had a real interest in the sport until their post-Super Bowl hangover was complete. With every Kemba Walker misfire, it’s more and more clear the frontrunner for National Player of the Year is currently starring  in Provo. Walker is mired in a prolonged slump over his last four games, shooting a porous 23% from the floor in 74 attempts including a 7-for-23 performance in Saturday’s home loss to Louisville. Fortunately for Walker, the emergence of his young supporting cast, notably Jeremy Lamb and Shabazz Napier, hasn’t caused the Huskies to dip into a considerable funk. Despite Walker’s post-Maui craze and his repeated heroics late in games against Texas and Villanova, Fredette has cleared usurped Walker as the talk of the college basketball world. What ultimately matters, though, is team success, and I still feel the undersized Cougars, who are increasingly over-dependent on Fredette late in games as they were Saturday at the Pit, have a much lower ceiling than Walker’s Huskies.

- What can I possibly say about Texas that hasn’t already been said? Never did I expect to be outwardly commending Jordan Hamilton’s effort on the defensive end at any point in his collegiate career, but the work he and Dogus Balbay did last night against A&M leading scorer Khris Middleton was phenomenal. Hamilton even said after the game he was going to “guard him as hard as I’ve ever guarded before.” We all know the Longhorns have scoring weapons – from the smooth operating of Hamilton to the mid-range game of Gary Johnson and the post ability of Tristan Thompson – but it’s the Longhorns unwavering commitment at the defensive end against capable Big 12 opponents that has college basketball fans bullish about Texas’ prospects of cutting down the nets in Houston. Texas has climbed the defensive efficiency rankings to tops in the nation and also rank first in effective FG% against. They’re third in the country in both two-point and three-point defense and can throw out A-plus perimeter defenders in Cory Joseph and Dogus Balbay and lengthy, shot-blocking, interior weapons like Thompson, Johnson and even Alexis Wangmene off the pine. The Big 12 totals are stellar- no opponent of Texas has scored more than 63 points and they’ve held their last four opponents to 33% shooting from the field and 20% from three. And they’re doing it on the road against ranked teams. If you appreciate aggressive, tenacious, inspired, man-to-man defense, there’s no better team to watch than Texas.

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Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

- The last second Cory Joseph-led triumph over North Carolina in Greensboro opened some eyes to the legitimacy of the Texas Longhorns, but it was directly following their evisceration of Michigan State at the Breslin Center when I pegged Rick Barnes’ squad as my official Final Four sleeper. Following a dismantling of Texas A&M on their home floor and a stunning come-from-behind win in Allen Fieldhouse against previously unbeaten Kansas—for my money the single most impressive win of the season to date – I think it’s time we elevate the Longhorns from Final Four contender to justifiable national champion candidate. It’s difficult to believe that this same program is just eight months removed from a historic and embarrassing collapse that saw a #1 Texas team in the nation in mid-January fall out of the rankings to a #8 seed in the NCAA Tournament and a first-round flameout, but the infusion of heady, intelligent and talented freshmen, the maturation of Jordan Hamilton, the cleansing of players with varying agendas and a severe rotation trimming has convinced most followers of the sport that last season’s disintegration is no longer relevant to discuss. Trying to discover a weakness on this Texas squad is a challenging task; even the free throw headaches that plagued last year’s team have improved from the depths of Division I to the point where it in all likelihood won’t single-handedly cost them a game. Their team defense is tenacious and hounding, ranking second in the nation in efficiency and in the top ten in both two-point and three-point field goal defense with stoppers in the paint (see: Tristan Thompson’s length and athleticism forcing Marcus Morris to become a three-point chucker) and on the perimeter (Dogus Balbay and Cory Joseph are two of the best). With capable scorers that line the roster and a scoring extraordinaire that will take and make any shot in the gym, the Longhorns have jumped from the unranked to the second best team in the nation in many evaluators’ eyes, the polar opposite of a downfall last season that’s long in the past.

Barnes and Johnson are leading Texas up the rankings

- The biggest basketball game in the history of the Mountain West conference will take place Wednesday night when top-ten foes BYU and San Diego State clash at the Marriott Center in Provo. Even though ESPN isn’t broadcasting the game, the hype surrounding this showdown will build considerably in the hours ahead until Wednesday night’s late tip off. The atmosphere should be absolutely electric and the stakes are considerably high: a win over an RPI top ten foe, a leg up in the race to win the fourth ranked RPI conference in the nation, a number one seed and potential undefeated campaign for the Aztecs and a jump to the second seed line for the home Cougars, to name a few. What’s so fascinating about this matchup is the contrast in styles. BYU, led by the captivating Jimmer Fredette and his capable sidekick Jackson Emery, is more backcourt-focused, a team whose guards generate steals and fast break opportunities, shoot 37% from deep, rank third in the nation in turnover percentage and has a member of their backcourt (Fredette) that uses 33% of his teams’ possessions. San Diego State, meanwhile, features an abundance of depth in their frontcourt, led by the explosive trio of Kawhi Leonard, Billy White and Malcolm Thomas. The physical and bruising San Diego State frontline boosts the Aztecs to first in block percentage, eighth in two-point field goal percentage and 23^rd in offensive rebounding percentage in the nation. BYU has crumbled in the past when facing superior athleticism and it’s a legitimate concern as to whether the Cougars have the horses up front to match Leonard, White and Thomas. Playing in front of their raucous home fans in an arena where BYU rarely falters should help tremendously.

- So, raise your hand if you had Kansas and Pittsburgh both losing at home in a span of three days. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention/discuss Notre Dame’s jaw-dropping win last night at a place where Pittsburgh is normally invincible just two days following Kansas surrendering their nation-pacing 69-game home winning streak. It’s especially remarkable when you consider that in Notre Dame’s previous two Big East road games at St. John’s and Marquette, two teams that may not make the NCAA Tournament, the Irish lost by a combined 40 points. Give Mike Brey and his team tons and tons of credit for executing and believing in a “burn” gameplan that exhausted the shot clock continuously, limited possessions (ND totaled 37 of 56 points with 11 seconds or fewer on the shot clock) and trusted Ben Hansbrough to create his own shot under enormous pressure. Pittsburgh insisted on switching ball screens and pick-and-roll situations which left Nasir Robinson and the less-than-agile Gary McGhee trying to front Hansbrough in space. The progress that Hansbrough has made improving his conditioning and all-around repertoire from perimeter gunner to capable penetrator, floor general and three-point marksman since his Mississippi State days has been staggering. Although Hansbrough donned the Superman cape late, it was matchup nightmare Carleton Scott that kept the Irish within striking distance by knocking down critical shots all night long. Scott is truly an X-factor and difference maker for Brey, a weapon the Irish didn’t have during those two blowout losses to St. John’s and Marquette.

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Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

- Outside of Duke, if there’s one team in the ACC that I’m not concerned about, it’s Maryland. The Terps are sitting at a pedestrian 11-6 on the season, but Gary Williams challenged his team on numerous occasions in the non-conference and that strategy should pay off as we head into February and March. Despite losing three senior starters and integral pieces in Greivis Vasquez, Eric Hayes and Landon Milbourne, Maryland hasn’t lost by double digits yet this season, a list of competitive contests that includes Pittsburgh, Duke, Illinois, Villanova, Temple and Boston College. The blown 12-point second half lead at Villanova last Saturday had to be the most heartbreaking for Gary and his staff, a true road game against a top ten team squandered when the jump shot evaded them and their guards forgot that Jordan Williams is their best player for about a six minute stretch. Williams continues to play phenomenal basketball and has to be second behind Jared Sullinger as far as true back-to-the-basket post presences are concerned in college basketball. He’s rebounding at a sky-high rate, drawing fouls with great frequency, shoots 56% from the field and rarely makes bad decisions. The Terps currently rank first in the entire country in defensive efficiency, allowing opponents to shoot just 40% from inside the arc on the season. Other than road trips to Virginia Tech and North Carolina, along with a visit to College Park from Duke, it wouldn’t stun me if the Terps ran the table during the rest of ACC play. At 22-9 (11-5) or 21-10 (10-6) with a stellar RPI/SOS, Williams won’t be sweating come Selection Sunday.

- Speaking of Selection Sunday, I released my first Bracketology of the season on Monday and what stood out had to be the Big East garnering 11 bids to the NCAA Tournament out of 16 conference representatives. That is a staggering total and not necessarily controversial. The team that was closest to the bubble in this week’s edition from the Big East was Marquette, who, like Maryland, posted a plethora of competitive losses to elite teams. Had the Golden Eagles just hung on to an 18-point lead late in the second half at Louisville last Saturday, they would be a shoe-in for the bracket. It’s truly been the perfect storm for the Big East this season in terms of collecting bids with the ACC, SEC and Pac-10 experiencing lackluster campaigns and overachievers relative to preseason expectations like Connecticut, Louisville, Notre Dame and St. John’s all throwing their names into the ring for possible berths. I expect the Big East to collect an absolute minimum of nine teams into the NCAA Tournament this season. The most likely squads to sink into NIT status are probably Cincinnati and St. John’s, but the former has collected such a breadth of victories already and the latter has quality wins at West Virginia and home against Georgetown and Notre Dame with plenty more opportunities ahead.

- This surprising statistic was pointed out during the North Carolina-Virginia Tech contest last Thursday and bears repeating: if Harrison Barnes just made one more field goal per game (these stats compiled before the Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech games), his numbers jump to 14.1 PPG, 47% FG and 40% 3pt. To put that into context, Kentucky’ s Brandon Knight, who has been viewed publicly as putting together a respectable freshman campaign, is averaging 17.5 PPG, 46% FG and 41% 3pt. The pressure placed on Barnes’ shoulders as a preseason All-American and savior of such a heralded program was considerable, and despite his perceived struggles, most believe that this kid’s basketball future remains extremely bright. Barnes is still considered by most NBA scouts and general managers as a top five pick in next year’s Draft. While not the near-consensus number one selection he was anointed months ago, nobody would blame Barnes if he left Carolina after this season to make millions as a lottery pick. Despite all of that, it’s my personal opinion that remaining at Chapel Hill for a sophomore year would do wonders for Barnes. If John Henson and Tyler Zeller elect to return, Carolina will contend for an ACC title. As a second-year player, the pressure and spotlight would wane dramatically from this season. Barnes would also have another year at school to refine, perfect and develop his game and he’d still receive boatloads of publicity and attention playing at a premiere basketball institution. If the stigma wasn’t so strong today for star freshmen staying another season, this decision would seem obvious. I’d like to think a kid with the awareness and intelligence of Barnes will ignore that noise.

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Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist at Rush the Court.

If I had to compile a midseason All-American team, the first four choices seem fairly obvious: Kemba Walker, Jimmer Fredette and Nolan Smith at the three guard spots and Jared Sullinger manning the frontcourt. The final selection is up for debate and valid arguments can be made for JaJuan Johnson, Jon Leuer, Terrence Jones and Derrick Williams. Due to his invaluable status relative to his team, Williams takes the cake. His importance to the success of the Wildcats is immeasurable and the idea that Arizona is barely an NIT team without his presence isn’t far fetched. Williams is compiling a monstrous season not only as far as basic statistics are concerned (19/7 on an incomprehensible 66/75/71 from the floor) but also in most advanced metrics you can dig up (24^th in offensive rating, third in effective FG%, second in true shooting% and second in fouls drawn per 40 minutes). Walker spurted ahead of Sullinger to reclaim frontrunner status for National POY following his heroics late in Austin on Saturday, while Fredette is a must-see spectacle every time he takes the floor. His scoring display against the normally rugged UNLV halfcourt defense was a sight to behold and the 6’2 guard now only trails the aforementioned Walker atop the scoring charts in college basketball. Sullinger has exemplified why it’s preposterous for people to criticize freshmen inclusions on preseason All-American teams. In the one-and-done era where the premier high school talents are forced to play a season on the collegiate level, the last five or so years have shown freshmen are more than capable of making this type of dramatic impact. We just pegged the wrong rookie in early November. Finally, if it’s possible to play for Duke and be underrated, Nolan Smith fits the bill. His seamless transition to point guard in the absence of Kyrie Irving should be applauded. Striking that delicate balance between scoring and distributing is a challenging one. Prior to struggles against Maryland, Smith was playing the best basketball of any player in the nation.

Fredette is a clear choice for midseason AA

It’s too early to make any broad, sweeping statements about which teams are definitely elite and separating themselves from the pack. Remember, at this point last season, Texas was the #1 team in the nation with North Carolina and Connecticut also setting up camp in the top 15. At the same time, Saturday’s action gave us a glimpse into that pecking order possibly starting to take shape. Four of the five remaining unbeaten teams- Duke, Ohio State, Kansas and Syracuse- all survived hard-fought, competitive, high-intensity games over the weekend, while, with the exception of unblemished brethren San Diego State, the rest of the top 25 experienced quite the upheaval. One of the discernable traits of Final Four-caliber teams is the ability to win games despite not playing their best basketball, especially on the road. Nolan Smith shot just 5-18 from the floor, Duke as a team only made 6-21 from three and the Blue Devils still found a way to edge past ACC rival Maryland. The Buckeyes shot just 39% from the floor, blew a double digit second half lead and still managed to survive Minnesota. Kansas shot an ugly 36%, including 4-24 from behind the arc, yet outlasted upstart Michigan in a true road game. The same applied to Syracuse on Saturday in their low-scoring affair with Seton Hall. Elsewhere, ranked teams like Missouri, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Georgetown, Kansas State, Michigan State and UCF succumbed to losses, the majority coming on the road against conference competition. If the season ended today, it’s clear that undefeated Duke, Ohio State, Kansas and Syracuse would be the four #1 seeds. If those squads can continue their habits of winning despite not playing their best basketball, we could see a hierarchy start to take shape. As for the rest of the rankings, be prepared for a jumbled mess for the next two months.

Speaking of Kansas, the more things change, the more they stay the same in the Big 12. The job Bill Self has done with that program cannot possibly be overstated. The depth he has been able to assemble is remarkable. How many teams can lose two lottery picks and their senior point guard and not miss a beat? Self has reached an enviable position in Lawrence: recognizable and historical program, energized fan base, top-flight recruiting and a winning expectation. The reason why Kansas has won the Big 12 every season since 2003-04, and the reason why they’re the prohibitive favorite once again this year, is their ability to play at any tempo, any pace and in any type of game in any environment. Missouri is widely considered a threat to KU in the conference this time around, but their stunning defeat at the hands of struggling Colorado is the perfect example of the contrast between Missouri, and other Big 12 programs to an extent, and rival Kansas. The Tigers are only successful against competitive challengers (North Alabama doesn’t qualify) when they force turnovers and turn the game into a chaotic marathon, and Missouri has historically struggled away from the friendly confines of their home arena. While Kansas enjoys home cooking as much as any program, they’ve shown a much greater propensity to win away from Allen Fieldhouse. They can win games in the 50’s or games in the 90’s. Their offensive and defensive efficiency are both equally top notch year in and year out under Self. Here’s a rule of thumb: until Kansas doesn’t win the Big 12, they should be picked in the preseason. Every single year.

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Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

- Connecticut is facing a daunting week ahead, one that will give us a clearer picture as to whether their November ascendancy in Maui with wins over Wichita State, Michigan State and Kentucky was a blip on the radar screen rather than the emergence of a bona fide contender. The Huskies and their multitude of underclassmen will face Notre Dame and their roster full of fifth-year seniors tonight in South Bend before embarking on an equally-daunting true road game at Texas on Saturday. Connecticut will be underdogs in both contests and don’t necessarily need to win either game. What the goal should be for Jim Calhoun is twofold: stay competitive for 40 minutes and receive contributions from players not named Kemba Walker. If the Huskies can scratch and claw with Notre Dame and exploit their mediocre defense and follow that up with the same type of effort in Texas, the questions over whether Connecticut will have to rely on those Maui victories to propel them to an NCAA berth will be tempered. Calhoun also needs Alex Oriakhi to put his disappearing act in Pittsburgh behind him and contribute as he did against Michigan State and Kentucky when the 6’9 sophomore posted double-doubles of 15/17 and 18/11, respectively. Calhoun will especially need Oriakhi to stay out of foul trouble against the long and athletic Longhorns frontline of Tristan Thompson and Gary Johnson. That Saturday duel in Austin is worth the price of admission to watch two of the top perimeter defenders in college basketball work their craft- Shabazz Napier likely gluing himself to fellow freshman Cory Joseph and Dogus Balbay chasing Walker.

A difficult two-game week for Calhoun's Huskies lies ahead

- Most expected Purdue to move down a few pegs with the loss of Robbie Hummel during preseason practice, but the Boilermakers have done a commendable job persevering through that demoralizing road block in their season and beginning the 2010-11 campaign at 13-1. JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore have been everything Matt Painter could have asked for out of his senior leaders and top players. Both have played a large bulk of Purdue’s minutes and are filling up the stat sheet in every way imaginable. Johnson’s ability to score with his back to the basket or facing his defender and his constant contributions defensively and on the boards makes him indispensable. Moore has been the go-to scorer, a crafty and smooth operator around screens who is now averaging over 20 PPG. The senior guard poured in 31/7/3 on 11-20 FG in the Big Ten opening win against Northwestern. Still, the real key to the Boilermakers success has been their true identity since the Hummel-led recruiting class arrived in West Lafayette four years ago- aggressive, physical, man-to-man defense. Some anticipated the defensive effort would slip with Chris Kramer departing. Truthfully, it has slipped, from third in efficiency to fourth in efficiency. If Painter can just receive scoring punch from one of his secondary players on any given night, whether Ryne Smith, Terone Johnson, Kelsey Barlow or a few other candidates do the honors, Purdue remains a top-ten team and Elite 8 threat.

- The story of the early part of conference play thus far has to be St. John’s. We discussed their triumphant win over Georgetown Monday night in ATB and in a separate post, and I want to look ahead at the daunting route the Johnnies have to navigate to remain atop the Big East. Starting with last night’s win, St. John’s does not play an unranked team the rest of January with two games on the docket against Notre Dame and clashes with Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville and Cincinnati. The Johnnies did schedule a quick Big East breather on January 30 with a non-conference visit from…#1 Duke. The Georgetown win, coupled with surprising road victories at West Virginia and Providence, is certainly getting this brutal stretch off on the right foot for Steve Lavin. But if St. John’s merely wants to tread water over the next three weeks, they’ll need to improve on a defensive efficiency that ranks ninth in the Big East and a team three-point percentage hovering around 32%. Lavin also needs his three primary weapons D.J. Kennedy, Dwight Hardy and Justin Brownlee, all of whom played 40 minutes against the Hoyas, to keep up their tremendous level of play. Luckily for Lavin, he has one of the most experienced teams in the nation at his disposal, a group of seniors that have navigated through these treacherous Big East waters in past seasons, albeit with minimal success. After their win over Georgetown, Lavin’s Red Storm are the talk of college basketball in and around the Big Apple. Survive this stretch and they’ll have lasting power in the Big East as a legitimate contender for a respectable NCAA bid.

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Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist at Rush the Court.

Self's next challenge: incorporating Josh Selby

- I’ve been taken aback by the number of analysts that believe Josh Selby is going to hurt Kansas, at least in the short term. While I understand that the college game is much more predicated on ball movement, teamwork and on-court chemistry than the next level, anyone that believes Selby throws a wrench into the Rock Chalk juggernaut is underestimating Bill Self’s coaching acumen, ignoring that the Jayhawks haven’t played like a well-oiled machine during all ten of their wins and are forgetting just how special Josh Selby is on a basketball court. Kansas doesn’t have a truly threatening foe on their slate until a month from now, January 17 at Baylor. This is plenty of time for the coaching genius of Self to integrate his star-studded freshman into the offensive flow. Every quote I’ve read from Selby shows he’s more than willing to play within Self’s halfcourt style- perimeter ball movement, high-low passing with their bigs and drive-and-kick action to their plethora of capable outside shooters, including Marcus Morris, whom Self insists the offense will still revolve around. Selby provides the Jayhawks with the type of player– a “pro” in scouting circles– that they need, someone who can rekindle a lost possession with seven seconds on the shot clock and find his own shot or draw a foul. Plus, Kansas has beaten Arizona by eight, UCLA by one, Memphis by 13 and USC by two in their stiffest tests to date. It’s not like Selby, the number one recruit in America per Rivals.com, is joining the 1990 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels.

- Re-watching the Syracuse-Michigan State game from the Jimmy V Classic, I was surprised at how the Spartans elected to defend a poor perimeter shooting team like the Orange. Kalin Lucas, Korie Lucious, Keith Appling and Durrell Summers often employed an aggressive defense against the Syracuse guards rather than electing to play softer and dare the Orange into shooting deep jumpers. The Orange are currently ranked a dismal 249^th in the nation in three-point percentage at 31.2% with their biggest offenders being Scoop Jardine at 30%, Kris Joseph at 27% and Brandon Triche at 27%. Luckily for Jim Boeheim, and the main reason why his Orange boast an undefeated record heading into Christmas, is that their length and athleticism allows for a plethora of offensive rebounds on those misses and that 2-3 zone continues to be lethal. But there does appear to be a blueprint for dethroning the Orange: sag off their perimeter players like Jardine and Triche and defy them to jack up long threes rather than allow dribble penetration. This could turn into a fatal flaw come Big East play in a similar fashion to how Kentucky was defended for most of last season.

- All throughout the summer and into the preseason, I couldn’t escape the hype surrounding the SEC East. Florida returned all five starters from an NCAA Tournament team. Kentucky was reloading with another powerful John Calipari recruiting class. Georgia was the sleeper extraordinaire with two all-SEC caliber players. Tennessee and Vanderbilt returned enough talent to be formidable foes for the entire season. Some experts even had the SEC in the discussion with the Big 12 and Big East as the second best conference in the nation after the Big Ten, especially if Mississippi State incorporated Renardo Sidney and Dee Bost and another SEC West squad surprised the masses. As we sit here five days before Christmas, I can’t help but label the SEC as a major disappointment thus far in the 2010-11 campaign. In fact, I’d go as far as to say Vanderbilt may be the class of the lot. Tennessee has continued their bipolar ways of overachieving as a plucky underdog and folding their tent when expectations begin the mount, plainly evident by quality wins over Villanova and Pittsburgh followed by back-to-back losses to sneaky mid-major Oakland and a middling Atlantic 10 team in Charlotte. Kentucky has collected wins over Washington and Notre Dame, but obvious flaws at the point (Brandon Knight is more of a scoring off-guard) and a gaping hole at center leave the Wildcats young and vulnerable. Florida and Georgia are glaring examples of a lesson we should all learn: just because a team returns a large chunk of their talent, it doesn’t mean they’re going to dramatically improve. Finally, the SEC West has proven to be nothing short of a disaster site, with their six representatives already having suffered defeats at the hands of Iowa, Rutgers, South Florida, UAB, Dayton, East Tennessee State, Florida Atlantic, Coastal Carolina, Nicholls State, Saint Peter’s, UNC-Asheville, Samford, Jacksonville, Campbell and Presbyterian (to be fair, Auburn represents a healthy chunk of those truly embarrassing losses).

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Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

Pitt has a team capable of reaching that elusive Final Four

1. I had an opportunity to attend the consolation and championship games of the 2K Sports Classic last Friday and learned a great deal about the four teams participating- Pittsburgh, Texas, Illinois and Maryland. The Panthers were one of my preseason Final Four teams and did nothing to give me second thoughts on that prediction. Ashton Gibbs is a true playmaker at the end of the shot clock, Jamie Dixon has an incredibly deep frontcourt and the Panthers play heady, smart, hard-nosed basketball for 40 minutes. It’s possible we overrated Illinois a bit coming into the year. They lack a bruiser down low that can post up on the block and demand the basketball. Mike Tisdale’s the same player he’s been his entire career at Illinois, a capable mid-range jump shooter that lacks any sort of physicality and is often mired in foul trouble because opposing power forwards constantly out-muscle him. Maryland looks like a middle-of-the-pack ACC team that should sneak into the NCAA Tournament because Gary Williams always receives max effort from his teams and Jordan Williams is a force in the post, although he needs to avoid silly fouls and demand the basketball more often. The team that needed to convince me they were a contender after last season’s disaster is Texas. The Longhorns are a top-20 team with a duo of physical, lockdown defenders on the perimeter in Dogus Balbay and Cory Joseph, an athletic low-post presence in Tristan Thompson and an explosive scorer in Jordan Hamilton. A shortened rotation and accepted roles has helped Rick Barnes develop improved chemistry, as well.

2. The story of the first two weeks of college basketball might just be Minnesota. The Big Ten was the best conference coming into the season with Michigan State and Ohio State shaping up to be Final Four frontrunners, Purdue and Illinois mainstays in the polls and Wisconsin as solid as ever. Minnesota was a team that nobody could quite get a handle on, especially considering it was impossible to predict just how much the additions of Trevor Mbakwe and Al Nolen would help Tubby Smith.  After three statements wins in Puerto Rico over Western Kentucky, North Carolina and West Virginia, the Gophers appear to be yet another contender primed for a deep March run out of the absolutely loaded Big Ten. Al Nolen was superb in the championship game against West Virginia locking down the Mountaineer’s point guard duo of Joe Mazzulla and Darryl Bryant on defense and splitting the West Virginia defense with dribble penetration that either resulted in free throws (11-12 on the night) or open looks for sharpshooting teammate Blake Hoffarber. Where the Gophers have forged their identity, though, is inside with a plethora of size and length. Ralph Sampson, Colton Iverson, Mbakwe and big bodied Mo Walker provide Smith a frontline that can go toe-to-toe with any in the nation. Just wait till they get Devoe Joseph back.

3. The most crippling defeat for any team with NCAA Tournament aspirations could have come Monday afternoon at the Maui Invitational for Wichita State. The Shockers inability to contain Kemba Walker (29 second half points) cost them a chance to pick up a quality win over a Big East opponent and a shot at potential #1-seed Michigan State in the semifinals. Why is this so devastating? One, Wichita just blew their best chance for an RPI/SOS booster. The only other challenging non-conference game on the slate is a road trip to San Diego State, where it’s extremely unlikely the Shockers leave with a victory. Merely the addition of the Spartans on their schedule would improve Wichita’s power rating dramatically. Instead, it’s increasingly likely Gregg Marshall’s team will have to win the MVC Tournament. This task is very possible; after all, the Shockers are the prohibitive favorite, a senior-laden squad with talents like Toure Murry, David Kyles and J.T. Durley. Marshall’s goal in Maui was to pick up two quality wins for the resume in March. That chance has gone by the wayside.

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