Over the long holiday weekend, Syracuse and West Virginia fell from the ranks of the unbeaten, leaving only four teams — Kansas, Texas, Kentucky & Purdue — with a shot at the holy grail of a perfect season.  None of the coaches will admit to it on the record, but they all hate losing, and each of them would welcome a chance to become the first team since Indiana in 1976 to win every game put in front of them.  There’s only one problem.  It’s collectively called the Big 12, SEC and Big Ten gauntlets schedules. 

As you’re well aware, there have only been two schools in the last two decades who have run the regular season table — UNLV in 1991, and St. Joseph’s in 2004 — and of course the aforementioned Hoosiers a generation ago were the last to go unblemished throughout.  There are many reasons for this, especially given that it’s difficult to win every single game with a growing target on your back, but the primary reason that Tark’s Rebels and Martelli’s Hawks were able to do it when so many other great teams were not was because they played in mid-major conferences (the Big West and Atlantic 10, respectively).  This is not to say that those conferences are cakewalks, because they’re not.  Every league has its share of rivalry games, other good programs and rattlesnake pits disguised as home gyms that make life difficult on favorites.  But what those conferences provide that is often missing among the BCS conferences are the true bottom-feeders that give elite teams such as UNLV/St. Joe’s breaks on a given night.  Have a tough shooting night at Vandy or Baylor?  You’re going home with your first L.  A tough shooting night at Fordham or Long Beach, though?  You’re probably still ok. 

With the clear knowledge in mind that all four of the remaining unbeatens are going to lose a regular season game (or several), let’s take a look at the remaining schedules to pinpoint exactly when and where that might happen.  First, let’s see what Pomeroy has to say.  He provides percentage odds on every future game, and if you extrapolate out over the rest of the year, you can start to pinpoint the true likelihood of when that first loss might occur.

This is a good starting point, as Purdue appears to be the most likely candidate to lose next (@ Wisconsin on Saturday), while Kansas seems to be the most likely team to run the table (10.2% isn’t exactly a lock, though).  The statistical analysis Pomeroy provides only tells part of the story, though, so we’re going to break down each team’s likelihood of its next loss using another analytical tool – our brain. 

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Ok, the time for messing around is over.  Let’s get conference play started and see what those top teams are really made of, shall we?  Analysis after the jump…

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s  resident bracketologist.  He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.

The biggest note: this is the most subjective bracket of the process. With RPI still evolving into a tool worth considering substantially, I had to construct this bracket primarily on 1) quality wins and bad losses in non-conference play, 2) non-conference SOS and 3) simple W-L record. Even conference RPI can’t be factored in yet because teams have played, at most, three conference games. With RPI rounding into form as January progresses, the bracket will switch from a more subjective process (had to use the eye test a few times, which I despise) to a more objective compilation.

• The #1 and #2 seeds were fairly straightforward. Due to Syracuse tripping up at home to Pittsburgh Saturday, the process became much easier and the four undefeated teams remaining earned the #1 nod. Three Big East teams earned nods as a #2 seed, all with one loss: West Virginia, Villanova and Syracuse. Duke was the other obvious choice for the second line.
• One of the more interesting cases was Ohio State. How much do I penalize them for the loss of Evan Turner? I was fairly harsh in the opening bracket following a discouraging defeat to Michigan and a blowout loss at Wisconsin. I’m fairly sure the Buckeyes will be moving further up the bracket when Turner is back in the fold a few weeks from now, but a #11 seed at 0-2 in the Big 10 and wins over California and Florida State seemed appropriate.
• USC will not be included in any of my brackets this year. It’s a shame because they have strong computer numbers and are building a handful of quality wins including Tennessee and UNLV. Like the Pac-10 needed to be hurt any further.
• Some notable snubs were Miami, Oregon and Saint Mary’s.  The point is pretty straightforward: I’m not going to reward you for playing a soft schedule. Miami is 14-1 but has the #85 RPI and #328 SOS in the nation with only notable wins against Minnesota and South Carolina. Oregon may be 2-0 in the Pac-10 but they have some BAD losses and need to do more to find their way into the bracket. The win at Oregon is looking stronger for St. Mary’s, but they still need to do more.
• Since we’re so early, I did factor in “quality” losses for some teams. For example, Dayton lost by under 10 to both Villanova and Kansas State (both top-10 teams) and by 2 at New Mexico (top-20 team). They deserve some credit for those close losses.
• Since we’re early in conference play, I determined the automatic bids among undefeated squads by which team had the highest RPI. I figured I should stay consistent with this throughout the season.

Last Four In: Northwestern, Richmond, Missouri State, Vanderbilt.

Last Four Out: Oklahoma State, Miami (FL), Saint Mary’s, Oregon.

Automatic bids: Vermont, Temple, Duke, East Tennessee State, Kansas, West Virginia, Weber State, Radford, Purdue, Pacific, William & Mary, UAB, Butler, Cornell, Siena, Western Michigan, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Quinnipiac, Murray State, California, Army, Kentucky, Western Carolina, UT-San Antonio, Texas Southern, Oakland, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, Louisiana Tech.

Bids per conference: ACC (7), Big East (7), SEC (6), Big 12 (6), Big 10 (6), Mountain West (3), Atlantic-10 (3), Pac-10 (2), Missouri Valley (2).

Next bracket: January 18

Jason Prziborowski is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference.

Two things from the past week:

• Luckily for Michigan State, it is still December, because they have still yet to prove that they can beat a top 10 team, losing to Texas in the biggest game they have played so far this year.
• I don’t know if you looked at the new AP top 25 poll, but if you have, you may have done a double take when you saw Northwestern at number 25. It’s for real, for the team that has never made the NCAA Tournament, they are well on their way.  Now five Big Ten teams are in the top 25: #4 Purdue, #11 Michigan State, #13 Ohio State, #23 Wisconsin and #25 Northwestern.

Standings

1. Purdue 11-0
2. Michigan State 9-3
3. Ohio State 10-2
4. Wisconsin 10-2
5. Northwestern 10-1
6. Illinois 8-4
7. Minnesota 9-3
8. Penn State 8-4
9. Michigan 6-5
10. Indiana 5-6
11. Iowa 5-7

Top Storyline

This past week was relatively calm with the holiday season, but I believe that was just the calm before the storm. This week there are some amazing matchups that will really show who’s who in the Big Ten, both in conference and on the national stage. Be sure to check out RTC throughout the week to make sure you don’t miss any of the action. If you want to see all of these games, you might need to get a little creative.

Coming Up

• December 30th – Northwestern @ Illinois, 9:00 ET – I think this game, if Northwestern wins, adds legitimacy to their ranking and actually makes the January 2nd game against Michigan State even more important. If Northwestern wins, the MSU game doesn’t matter that much.
• December 31st – Ohio State @ Wisconsin, 2:00 ET, ESPN2 – This is the matchup of the week in the Big Ten as far as conference standings shake up. Of course, it will also lead to repercussions on the national stage as well. Wisconsin is super tough at the Kohl Center, but Ohio State is a team with something to prove without Evan Turner.
• January 1st – West Virginia @ Purdue, 2:30 ET, ESPN – This is the marquee matchup nationally, and a chance for Purdue to either show up or fall. It could go either way, as West Virginia is coming off of two solid wins this past week, especially the overtime victory against Seton Hall.
• January 2nd – Michigan State @ Northwestern, 6:30 ET – Like I said earlier, if Northwestern loses against Illinois, this game could be a moot point if Michigan State plays like they can. If not, this could get very interesting, as Northwestern needs to prove they can play against top teams, and see what kind of home court advantage they can have in the Big Ten. A lot is at stake for the Spartans too.
• January 2nd – Gonzaga @ Illinois, 1:00 ET, CBS – Since I have already started to play the scenario game, I am going to keep at it. Let’s say Illinois pulls off the upset against Northwestern at home, and the victory gets them back on track. This is exactly the type of game Illinois needs, and Gonzaga doesn’t want to let slip away. If we want to comparison shop the Big Ten, Wisconsin lost by 13 earlier in the season to Gonzaga, and Michigan State won by four.

Breaking It Down

• West Virginia @ Purdue – It’s on. I have mentioned this game for weeks now, but now it is finally here. This is by most measures, the biggest test for Purdue this year, and since Purdue is carrying the banner for the Big Ten, a great game to showcase the Big Ten against the Big East. Stats of the game: free throws and offensive boards. Purdue has an almost 10% lead from the charity stripe, but West Virginia sends a lot of big men to the offensive glass. If Purdue can hold WVU to their season averages without giving up the boards they will win this game.
• The Spartans were corralled, but must slay a cat. Okay, enough about MSU losing to Texas. They played a solid first half, and couldn’t stop the Longhorns from coming back to win the game. If you want to read more about the game though, check it out here on RTC: ATB: Texas the New Florida? Ok, last week is last week, and this week is well… this week. Michigan State, if they are good team, should beat teams they are expected to beat. Cinderella status notwithstanding, MSU should beat Northwestern, so they need to get it done.
• Ohio State needs to pack a winter coat this week. Ohio State, or should I say, David Lighty and Ohio State put on a show and took down Cleveland State. David Lighty lit it up for a career best 30 against the Vikings (pun intended), so nobody is wondering if he is serious about filling a void. Cleveland might be a past tournament Cinderella, but the Buckeyes might need a more balanced effort to slay the mighty Badgers at the Kohl Center. The Kohl Center holds one of the most sizable home court advantages of anywhere in the nation. OSU can hope that Wisconsin students are still on break, and won’t come back from vacation early for this game. The key word there is hope.
• Northwestern made the rankings, now can they stay? Somebody either has a great sense of humor or has been schooled in irony. Northwestern has been getting votes all year to be in the top 25 while not really playing anybody, but now that they made it, they have to be play Illinois followed by Michigan State. It is completely plausible that the Wildcats could be 0-2 in the Big Ten and definitely be out of the top 25 by the end of the week. Winning on the road at Assembly Hall in Champaign is tough, so if they can do that, their confidence should be sky high to take on the Spartans. That game, given the talent level of the two teams, should go to MSU, but don’t count the Wildcats out yet.
• Wisconsin extinguishes the Flames to get ready for the Bucks. What else can I title the only game Wisconsin played since last week, other than that? Ok, I could think of a few more, but I will leave it at that. Illinois-Chicago was a good filler game to remind the Badgers that they are now concluding the preconference slate, and a 36-point drubbing got the point across. The first week of conference for Wisconsin is what I call The Week of the States: Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State. The Buckeyes game should be very interesting, as Wisconsin would love to slow it down, and OSU would love to hit the century mark. May the team that best plays its game and doesn’t allow the other team to do the same will win.
• Illinois likes a consistent win-loss pattern this year. Lucky for Illinois, so far each time they have won four games, only to follow it up with two losses. Why lucky you ask? In case you weren’t following the embarrassing loss to Mizzou, but that made it two losses in a row. Surely Illinois will follow it up with four wins a row. To pull it off though, they need to take down one Cat and then one Dog. They need to bring in Northwestern and Gonzaga, and beat them both. If they can do that, their four-game win streak gets easier with Iowa at home, and then Indiana on the road.
• Minnesota will be looking for wins 6 and 7 before Purdue. Not much to report on Minnesota since they haven’t played in a week, but I am hoping the break did them well because the easy schedule will be coming to an end very soon, and they will have to prove where they stack up in the Big Ten. I expect them to take down Penn State and Iowa, but it isn’t preposterous that they could lose the next three in Purdue, Ohio State, and Michigan State.
• It’s make or break time for the Michigan Wolverines. Such high hopes for Michigan this year, but as of yet, very little has materialized. Two unpredictable teams will meet up this New Year’s Eve in Michigan and Indiana. If IU brings the team that lost to Loyola, it’s an easy Michigan win. If they bring the team that knocked off Pittsburgh, the Wolverines will be clawing their way through a tough one (yes, another pun for those keeping track). After Indiana, maybe the basketball team can make up for the frustration of the football team when they bring Ohio State to town.
• Penn State takes a break from basketball. Penn State cruised against American, but they will be in trouble against Minnesota on the road, especially having not played in eight days, and then the tough road doesn’t stop. They will have Wisconsin, Michigan, and Illinois. They could be 0-4 before battling it out for the bottom of the Big Ten against Iowa. Hopefully it won’t be the case, but stranger things have happened.
• Indiana without Maurice Creek, what team will emerge? Indiana has had a rollercoaster year thus far, some exciting, some frustrating, all unexpected. The one steady positive variable for the Hoosiers this season has been the superstar freshman Creek, but now Indiana will be without him for the rest of the year, as he fractured his knee against Bryant during a rout, and will have season ending knee surgery about the time you read this. What will happen to Indiana without Creek’s 17 PPG and emerging leadership presence?
• Iowa is in for a long month. Iowa decided to take an 8-game break in between their game against South Carolina State and Purdue, mainly as a way for it to really soak in that they would be kicking off conference play against Purdue. I don’t see a winnable game in much of January until they play Indiana, so they did an ingenious scheduling move to build confidence mid-conference: they scheduled a game against Tennessee State on the 12th of January. The only problem is that move could backfire, as TSU only lost to Northwestern by 7 and Vanderbilt by 13. I wish I had better news for the Hawkeyes.

Jason Prziborowski is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference.

Standings

1. Purdue       10-0
2. Michigan State      9-2
3. Ohio State      9-2
4. Wisconsin       8-2
5. Northwestern      9-1
6. Illinois       8-3
7. Minnesota     8-3
8. Penn State     8-4
9. Michigan      5-5
10. Indiana       5-5
11. Iowa             4-7

Three Things Last Week

• Evan Turner looks like he might be back early – a full four weeks ahead of schedule, which will help Ohio State as well as the Big Ten.
• The Big Ten has speculated on adding another team to its ranks, adding further confusion as to how it will be able to call itself the Big Ten. Apparently if you spell out Ten you can add as many teams to the conference as you want.
• Three Big Ten teams are in the top 25: #4 Purdue, #9 Michigan State, and #17 Ohio State.

Top Storyline

The Big 10 is busy off the court.

• Bobby Knight singles out John Calipari to show the dismal state of the NCAA when it comes to academics.
• Minnesota’s Royce White decides to give it up and leaves Minnesota and college basketball after his mounting legal troubles caused him, his family, and the school undue stress.
• Not to be outdone, Iowa’s Anthony Tucker drops 17 on Drake, gets drunk in public, and is then suspended indefinitely by Iowa.

Coming Up

• December 22^nd – Michigan State @ Texas, 7:00 PM ET, ESPN2 – As far as I am concerned, this is the biggest matchup for a Big Ten team this year. One could argue that the MSU vs. UNC game earlier in the season was bigger, but after Texas’ thrashing of UNC the other day, I would say that this is a biggest test for Tom Izzo and company. They are going to have to come to play down in Austin if they want to stay in this one.
• December 23^rd – Illinois @ Missouri, 9:30 ET, ESPN2  – This is a classic Bi-State rivalry, as the 29^th Annual Busch Braggin’ Rights game happens in St. Louis at the Scottrade Center. This game could be close, or it could be a blowout. If you play the who played who and what happened game, you will find that there could be 17 points separating these two teams, with Illinois having the advantage. That’s the difference in what happened when both teams played Vanderbilt earlier in the year. The other stat that could prove interesting is 6-0. That’s Missouri’s record at home this year. Too bad this game is being played in neutral territory. Watch the game to see if the Vanderbilt proves as an accurate guide. 

Breaking It Down

• Purdue first to Ten in the Big Ten. Robbie Hummel had a 19/9 game and Purdue’s top three scorers were good for 47 of the 69 points that the Boilermakers put on the board against Ball State. Purdue will blow out both SIUE and Iowa, but I can’t wait to see what they do against West Virginia in West Lafayette. To move up in the rankings, though, they will need some help from Michigan State against Texas or Louisville to knock off Kentucky.
• Michigan State has one more blowout before Texas. Admittedly, I had never heard of IPFW and Oakland, but they definitely found out how dominant MSU can be, even on off nights. MSU hasn’t lost to Texas in three years, and hopefully they can make it four. Time will only tell how both of their inside games match up.
• Ohio State could be saved by the Christmas bell. The Buckeyes have done an admirable job in Evan Turner’s absence, but if his recovery is going to be as speedy as he announced this week, they won’t have to keep it up for much longer. They just have to get past Wisconsin and Michigan on the road, and Indiana at home before Turner is back. If they can do it, it’s anyone’s game in the Big Ten.
• Northwestern is the best basketball nerd school in the nation. Two great things about last weekend’s Stanford game for the Wildcats. First, they beat probably the only school that can compete with them on the hardwood and in the classroom. The second is that John Shurna is back. He had a 22/8 game against Stanford, so I hope I don’t jinx him. Stanford actually shot better from the field and from 3-pt territory, but the Wildcats dominated from the free throw line. Northwestern is going to have to find a bench though, as five points from the reserves isn’t going to cut it in the Big Ten.
• Wisconsin gives opponents a nice Madison Tour, they might not come back. It’s no secret that Wisconsin does ok in the Kohl Center, but their game against Cal Poly gave the southern California team a Wisconsin blizzard. The Badgers were up by 52 points at one time in this game, and dominated in every area. That type of performance will be repeated in the next two games, but after that OSU will be sure to give Wisconsin a run for its money.
• Illinois gets cocky, loses to Georgia. Illinois had a good run, and maybe this game is just a hiccup on its way to another four-game win streak. Actually, if you look at earlier in the season, they reeled off four straight, only to lose two straight followed by another four wins. Let’s hope they don’t need two losses to learn their lesson. Let’s see if Demetri McCamey can repeat his 21/5 performance against Mizzou.
• Will Minnesota’s distractions end anytime soon? I already mentioned what hopes to be end of the Royce White era, but is this theme going to repeat itself throughout the year, or will the Gophers make all of their news on the court for the rest of the year? The good news is that Minnesota is torching outmatched opponents on the court, but once conference starts, it could be a different story. Blake Hoffarber set a school record by hitting eight shots from long range in their last game, so that is definitely a bright spot when someone goes off for 26 points after only averaging 10.5 on the year. Look for another three wins for Minnesota before colliding with Purdue on January 5^th.
• Michigan doesn’t get embarrassed by Kansas. Ok, so the good news is that Michigan managed to stay in the game against Kansas. The bad news is that they let a great opportunity to beat Kansas slip away. My main question with Michigan is when will they figure out that they aren’t a very good three-point shooting team? They shot an ice cold 17.9% against the Jayhawks, and on 28 attempts nonetheless. They are now 28.4% on the year on 257 attempts. Kansas in contrast is shooting 43% from long range. Michigan needs to take it to the basket and leave the threes for someone else.
• Penn State hits the Century Mark. Who knew that the Nittany Lions hadn’t hit 100 in a game since a game against Virginia Military Institute three years ago. Penn State was lights out against Gardner-Webb, led by Talor Battle’s 21. Penn State most remarkably shot 87.5% from the free throw line, which I can’t say I have seen much this year in the Big Ten. The bad news is that Penn State has eight days off before traveling up to Minnesota to take on the Gophers.
• Indiana has definitely found the guy to build the program around. Maurice Creek is his name, and lighting it up from three and leading the team last game in rebounds with seven is his game. He followed up his 31-point performance against Kentucky with 29 against North Carolina Central. Want to be amazed by more stats from Creek? Ok, so he is shooting 44.3% from three, 53.3% from two (as a guard), and a respectable 4.1 boards per game. IU should get a couple more wins before battling Michigan at Assembly Hall for a New Year’s Eve special.
• Iowa is not the worst in state, just the Big Ten. Iowa just got worse after suspending their second leading scorer in Anthony Tucker after beating Drake by four. Guess December just isn’t Anthony’s month, as he pulled the same move last year as well. The bad news for Iowa is that they will have to venture outside the state, and the competition is much better. It will be a long year for the Hawkeyes.

If you’re an obsessive schedule-tracker like we are — and you sorta have to be in this business — you quickly realize the rhythms of game scheduling.  It becomes more stark during the conference season when most schools play a regular schedule of two games per week (usually on the same days), but you can still see it in November and December based on general patterns of tv viewership, travel and holidays.  By way of example, Mondays and Fridays are usually not very good nights for games, as most teams are either going into or coming out of a weekend game (usually on Saturday).  Conversely, Tuesdays and Thursdays are often busy, with the penultimate day of the work week being preferred for many western-based teams.  Wednesdays, the Hump Day, are often busy just because it’s the middle of the week and games on that day maximizes rest and practice time for students before the next one on the weekend.  If you’re reading this site, none of this information will be new to you; you already inherently know it. 

Is There a Basketball Under There? Why Yes, There Is.

So it’s a little odd that this week — Christmas week — a random Tuesday night will be the biggest game night of the entire slate of games this week (Mon-Sun).  Most teams take time off for the holiday, allowing their players to spend some quality time at home if they’re close enough to travel and/or with friends and other teammates if they’re not.  To that end, there are a grand total of zero games this Thursday and Friday, one game on Saturday (RTC Live will be at WVU-Seton Hall), and only eleven games on Sunday.  Our point: if you want to satisfy your hoops jones, you’d best tune in tonight (91 games) and tomorrow (39 games) to cure the anxiety. 

And what a schedule of games it is!  Our little box of  Nightly Nonsense listings wasn’t big enough to hold all of tonight’s goodies, so we will do you the service of listing the games you should be tracking along with us throughout the day and evening (yes, there are day games!) and into tomorrow.  It may not be Christmas just yet, but the treats have come early this year.  Settle in for your long winter’s nap with nonstop hoops over the next two days. 

Christmas on December 22

• 3 pm – Nevada vs. BYU (ESPN360).  This game, as part of the Las Vegas Classic, features a MWC/WAC matchup between two talented teams that could really use this RPI-increasing victory. 
• 3 pm – Northeastern vs. St. Mary’s (ESPNU).  This 10 am (local time) game from Hawaii wil be one of your few opportunities to watch SMC’s Omar Samhan, who is averaging 22/12/2 blks while shooting over 60% from the field this season.
• 5:30 pm – Tulsa vs. Nebraska.  Tulsa has looked good this year, but they’ve played nine home games (all wins) and dropped their only game away from home (@ Missouri State).  This neutral-site game in Las Vegas is a must-win if the Golden Hurricane want to position themselves for an at-large berth in March.
• 7 pm – #9 Michigan State @ #2 Texas (ESPN2).  The Horns are plowing through teams to the tune of a 29-pt average margin of victory, but MSU has had their number the last three seasons (all neutral court wins, though).
• 7 pm – South Alabama @ #18 Florida (ESPN360).  The Gators try to get off of a two-game losing streak with a home date against USA.
• 7 pm – Ohio @ Pittsburgh (ESPN360).  These two top 35 defenses should deliver a close game that you probably won’t want to watch, so keep this one on in the background.

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Contributing writer Kevin Chupka will periodically interview a rabid student fan about all things basketball on the court and in the stands… a view from the student section.

College basketball has its casual fans just like any other sport.  There is one group however that elevates it above all else by taking “fandom” to new heights.  A group tasked with truly being that sixth man on the court.  Sure the alumni can open up wallets full of cash from the real world and they can drink their fancy imported beer but the lifeblood of any great team inside the many arenas of division one college basketball are the students.  There are always exceptions (yours truly and Dick Vitale to name but two) but by and large students are the ones who live and breathe based on their team’s fortunes.  And so I sought to find some of those rabid fans.  The ones that paint their bare chests bright red or blue or orange.  The ones that lead the student section in chants that lift up their team and dash the dreams of the other.  In the weeks that follow we’ll get the dirt from inside the foxhole as we pick the brains of those who know their team best.

People like Michael Bleach, the beat writer for The Badger Herald, the paper of record at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.  The senior journalism major has his finger on the pulse of the basketball Badgers; and while he and many in town were still streaming into Camp Randall Stadium to cheer on the gridiron Badgers, Michael was also looking closely at a basketball team that the mainstream media saw clawing for notoriety in a strong Big Ten conference.

In a column previewing the season Michael wrote: “the national media (AP Top 25) has determined the Badgers will finish behind Michigan State, Purdue, Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois and Minnesota. Michigan State and Purdue I will give you. As for the rest of the teams on that list, however, they haven’t invented a word strong enough for me to express my disbelief. I am colossally baffled.”  Baffled he told me because “The team has no holes in the starting five — with everyone on the floor able to shoot from beyond the arc — and it is a Bo Ryan team, so you know they will play strong defense. They have two strong subs coming off the bench in Jordan Taylor (sixth man of the year candidate) and Ryan Evans (typical athletic, defense, hustling guy).”

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The news that the Big Ten was looking to expand from 11 teams (yeah I know 11 > 10) to 12 teams (yeah I know there is already a Big 12) set the college sports world abuzz with speculation about who the 12th team would be. And that set off a chain reaction of questions about who would fill in the spot in the conference that the Big Ten’s 12th member would leave vacant and so on. We will leave the latter for another post if and when the Big Ten finally commits to expansion and selects a school. Right now the schools I have heard mentioned most often are Cincinnati, Connecticut, Iowa State, Louisville, Missouri, Notre Dame, Rutgers, Syracuse, Texas, and West Virginia. I’ll go ahead and make this simple for everybody. Despite what Mike DeCourcy says Texas is not going to the Big Ten. The prospect of Texas leaving the Big 12 is too disastrous for the Big 12 officials to let happen. He can argue about TV revenues and how Texas is a much bigger TV draw than any of its Big 12 competitors, but he is missing a key element here. Unfortunately for Mike, geography destroys his grand scheme of having the Longhorns leave the Big 12 for the Big Ten. As the graphic clearly illustrates, Austin, Texas, is very far away from the members of the Big Ten. In fact the closest school would be Illinois, which is just a short 1,004 mile trip away from Austin (or 3 Mike DeCourcy Sporting News glamour shots).

While I understand a college team expects to have its fans outnumbered in road games, I can’t imagine that they would want to have a scenario where none of their students could go to a road game and none of the opposing team’s fans could watch games in Austin. So in my mind that pretty clearly eliminates Texas from consideration in the Big Ten. You can use this same argument when Mike suggests that UCLA join the Big East after the Big Ten poaches one of their programs for this round of expansion.

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Jason Prziborowski is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten conference.

Three things from the past week.  Wisconsin loses to Wisconsin-Green Bay. The second thing is Ohio State loses without Evan Turner. The third thing is freshman Maurice Creek from Indiana and Drew Crawford from Northwestern are filling it up with more 30 points in their last games. Now three Big Ten teams are in the top 25: #4 Purdue, #12 Michigan State, and #18 Ohio State.

Standings

1. Purdue 9-0
2. Northwestern 7-1
3. Illinois 8-2
4. Michigan State 8-2
5. Ohio State 7-2
6. Wisconsin 7-2
7. Minnesota 7-3
8. Penn State 6-4
9. Michigan 5-4
10. Indiana 4-5
11. Iowa 3-7

Top Storylines

• Can Purdue win on the road against top teams? Purdue had to use the whole game to polish off Alabama down in Tuscaloosa. Granted that Alabama team is now 6-3 and beat Michigan earlier in the year, but still, Alabama is no Wisconsin in Madison. That will be Purdue’s first difficult road test, and a good one at that, as Wisconsin is practically unbeatable in the Kohl Center under Bo Ryan.
• Was Butler a fluke or is Ohio State on the verge of dropping out of the top 25?  Butler is definitely on the way back up, but I am questioning whether OSU has enough in its tank to make up the difference. William Buford, who is averaging 12/4 on the year, stepped up for 20/7 for the Buckeyes. David Lighty, who is 12/5 on the year, went for 16/7 against the bulldogs. OSU is averaging 85.4 points per game this season, and scored just 66 against Butler. That’s about the gap of one Evan Turner.
• Is Illinois as good as their record suggests? It’s hard to say, but after their big Clemson upset, they haven’t played anybody too great. Yes, you could argue that Vandy is tough, but you definitely can’t make the case for Western Michigan. If you play Illinois, just don’t do so at their place. They are 8-0 at Assembly Hall in Champaign. A big test will be against Northwestern on December 30th at home.

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Last weekend’s Villanova loss created the only substantive movement in the RTC Top 25 this week, but we weren’t rating the Wildcats as high as everyone else anyway, so the market on Jay Wright’s team appears to have been corrected.  Analysis after the jump…

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