If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com. We will add to this post throughout the day as the submissions come in so keep on sending them.

Top 25 Games

• #13 Georgetown 64, #12 Syracuse 56: “Georgetown fans have been conditioned to believe that when the going gets tough, we’d falter.  Instead, we did the exact opposite, finishing the game with an 8-1 run to win 64-56 in the most satisfying victory of the season.  John Thompson III earned his first victory in the Carrier Dome as the coach of Georgetown.” (Casual Hoya)

Other Games of Interest

• Michigan 75, Northwestern 66: “On Michigan’s first offensive possession of the game, Jordan Morgan went up soft for an easy layup, missed it, and went crumbling to the floor. It was eerily similar to Morgan’s soft early layups at Ohio State except this time it was Mike Cappocci defending the rim rather than Jared Sullinger. I’m not sure what happened but, after that dismal attempt, the switch flipped. Morgan dominated the next 39 minutes in a way that we haven’t seen this year. He missed just one more shot and finished with 27 points on 13 field goal attempts. That’s not to say Morgan didn’t get any help from his teammates. Tim Hardaway Jr. was phenomenal yet again and Morris, Douglass, Novak, and Smotrycz were all solid in supporting roles.” (UM Hoops: Recap, Post-Game Chat, John Beilein Post-Game Interview, and Player Post-Game Interviews)
• Maryland 106, Longwood 52: “Ah, the joys of cupcakes. Sean Mosley scored 20 points, Dino Gregory had his second double-double of the season, six Terrapins finished in double-digits in points, and Maryland cruised to an easy victory over Longwood, more than doubling up the Lancers with a 106-52 final score. The win was Gary Williams’ 665th, and Maryland fans held up “665” signs in the final minutes commerating the victory.” (Testudo Times)

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If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com. We will add to this post throughout the day as the submissions come in so keep on sending them.

Top 25 Games

• #14 Purdue 67, Indiana 53: “Tonight’s performance reminded us a bit of the Hoosiers of old. Missed shots — 22-of-62 from the field for 35.5 percent, 2-of-13 from three for 15.4 percent. Blocked shots — eight swats for Purdue with JaJuan Johnson notching four of those. Credit is due to Matt Painter’s kids, who entered the game at fourth in the Big Ten in allowing 1.05 points per possession to their opponents. Purdue’s defense — which held the Hoosiers to a season low 24 first-half points and a season low points total in a loss  – was perhaps the best these Hoosiers have seen all season. They were physical. They took away the three-point shot. They protected the paint and the rim. They got after an Indiana team that hadn’t played a road contest in over a week, that had been bolstered by a home crowd of late and that is without Christian Watford and Maurice Creek.” (Inside the Hall: Recap and Tom Crean Quotes; Boiled Sports: Recap)
• #18 Kentucky 73, Tennessee 61: “Ladies and gentlemen of the Big Blue Nation, this was a team that I recognized. I didn’t recognize every player (more on that later), but this was the kind of defense, ball movement and toughness that I remember from the Louisville game, and many other times in the early season. What we saw tonight was Kentucky Wildcats Basketball. The Tennessee Volunteers did not make it easy, and made several runs of the sort that Kentucky has responded poorly to on the road.  Tennessee played physical, tough basketball. But in the comfy confines of Rupp Arena, the Wildcats did not succumb to the never-say-die effort of the Vols, and the very large first half lead proved too much for Tennessee, who is somewhat scoring challenged. The Volunteers deserve credit for a good try, but ultimately it wasn’t nearly good enough.” (A Sea of Blue or Rocky Top Talk)

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1. Bruce Pearl returned to the sidelines last night in a game against Kentucky in Lexington, having served his eight-game SEC suspension.  Gary Parrish believes that the Big Orange head coach will be nailed with a full one-year suspension by the NCAA when it finally metes out its punishment for lying to the governing body (among other things).  This would be a reasonable punishment considering the NCAA simply cannot let one of its star head coaches get over on it like that.  Still, Tony Jones as the interim coach would be a good replacement (he was 5-3 with two close OT losses while Pearl was out), giving him a chance to move on to another top coaching job the following year while keeping a fair amount of continuity within the UT basketball program.
2. Luke Winn uses more graphs than you can shake a frosh at in comparing the offensive progress of nine of the best collegiate rookies in the country this year.  You should read the whole thing, but here’s a synopsis:  Steadily rising – Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones, Harrison Barnes, Will Barton; Marginally Rising – Tristan Thompson, Cory Joseph, Brandon Knight; Decreasing: Terrence Jones, Joe Jackson.
3. And articles like these are why NC State continues to be the laughingstock of ACC basketball.  Not only does the author lose all credibility when he states that Herb Sendek is on the hot seat at Arizona State this season — the same Sendek who won 22, 25 and 21 games in Tempe the last three seasons — but he fails to understand that the key difference between the first five seasons of Sidney Lowe vs. Sendek is that the latter clearly was building toward something.  Lowe only appears to be building toward a stigma of perpetual ACC bottom-dweller.  The other significant fact that he fails to recognize is that the ACC has been a pathetic shell of its former self the last five years — if there was ever an opportunity for a non-Duke/non-UNC team to step into the top tier, it’s been during this period.
4. Georgia Tech’s Brian Oliver will miss up to three weeks with a broken left thumb that will require surgery.  The 6’6 sophomore guard is the team’s third-leading scorer and fourth-leading rebounder for a team that is going nowhere in the ACC and nationally, but the expectation is that he will be back in time for the postseason.
5. Pete Thamel at the NYT gives casual fans just tuning into college basketball a primer as to what the season has been so far.  His argument is that the lack of stars — from the injured Kyrie Irving to the gone-pro Wesley Johnson and Greg Monroe, has led to a wide-open season of parity.  We agree with the last part of the statement — the field is wide open this year.  But wasn’t it wide open last year as well?  Duke wasn’t an extremely popular pick to win it all, but they did anyway.  The two other teams considered most likely to do so — Kansas and Kentucky — never even got to Indianapolis.  As for the lack of star power, well, again, this happens just about every year — guys like Johnson and Monroe go league, while the next generation of stars, the Fredettes and Sullingers, take their place.  This wasn’t Thamel’s best work.

The Lede.  The second night of Rivalry Week continued, but frankly those games were rather boring.  The juiciest matchups occur on Wednesday night when a few old, bitter rivals re-acquaint themselves with each other.  We thought that this gave us a chance to explore some of the lesser-known teams who played on Tuesday and are having excellent second halves this year.

Another Mason Miracle in Store in 2011?

Your Watercooler Moment.  Celebrating Surprise Teams in the Mid-Major World: George Mason, Princeton and Xavier.  Tonight gave us a good opportunity to discuss three teams that people didn’t necessarily expect to be playing so well at this point in this season, but each continues to win games.  First, how about Jim Larranaga’s George Mason Patriots?  Could it be Mason Madness all over again?  With a win tonight at UNC-Wilmington, 78-63, GMU won its tenth CAA game in a row and has started the whispering around Fairfax about another big-time March run for the small school in northern Virginia.  Their remaining big CAA game is a week from tonight at 11-2 VCU.  A little up the coast in New Jersey, the Princeton Tigers defeated their rival Penn tonight, 62-59, in overtime, the Ivy League school’s seventh win in a row and fifth in the conference.  The Tigers’ key win, of course, was last Friday over expected Ivy champion Harvard, but with that win and the Penn victory, Sydney Johnson’s team is off to a 5-0 start for the second consecutive year.  The caveat is that all five of their Ivy wins have come at home, but with no Cornell juggernaut to compete with, Princeton is well-positioned to make a run at the Ivy title for the first time since 2004.  The last name, Xavier, may surprise you.  After all, the Musketeers are always good, right?  But having lost stars Jordan Crawford and Jason Love from last year’s Sweet Sixteen team and a rough non-conference slate, not many folks expected XU to once again rise to the top of the Atlantic 10.  Yet here they are, sitting at 8-1 in league play and going into a hostile environment tonight in Athens, Georgia, and coming out with a big-time win over a power conference team.  Tu Holloway has been outstanding, and his 18-point second half ensured that the Musketeers of two months ago who lost to every good team they played is no longer wearing the same uniform.  These three teams may not get a lot of press the final month of the season, but they’re definitely worth keeping an eye on the rest of the way.

Tonight’s Quick Hits…

• Clemson as the Fourth ACC Team.  The Tigers have gotten virtually no attention this season at all, but Brad Brownell has done a tremendous job in his first season in South Carolina and Clemson could be well-positioned to finish behind Duke, UNC and possibly Florida State as the fourth NCAA team from the conference.  The Tigers have been outstanding at home this season, going 5-0 in conference play and appearing a different team in the friendly confines of Littlejohn Coliseum.  The key has been offensive balance, as Brownell is getting between 8.0 and 13.7 PPG from six players, led by seniors Demontez Stitt and Jerai Wright (12.8).
• Kentucky at Home.  The Wildcats are simply a different team than they are on the road this season, and it’s in large part due to how the Wildcats’ role players play much more comfortably in Rupp Arena.  The crystal-clear case in point is DeAndre Liggins, a guard who averages 11/4/4 APG and shoots 46% at home and contributes 5/3 and shoots 26% on the road.  Tonight he was arguably John Calipari’s most effective Cat, going for 19/5/3 assts/5 stls in a complete floor game where he missed only a single field goal and free throw on the evening.  In SEC play, UK is 4-0 with an average margin of victory of 20.0 points, but on the road they are only 1-4 with a margin of -0.8 points.  If the Cats can get just a little better production from the likes of Liggins and company, they would be a much better team.

… and Misses.

• MVC Leaders.  Does anyone want to win this conference this year?  After Missouri State ran out to a 9-1 record, the Bears lost two games last week; meanwhile, UNI won eight games in a row to get to 9-3 before dropping a game over the weekend to Drake and tonight against Evansville.  Wichita State moved to the forefront with an 11-2 record only to get dropped by a weak Southern Illinois team tonight.  With five games left, Wichita and Missouri State appear to be in the best position to win the league, and the two teams will play each other on the last day of the regular season three weeks from now.

Tweet of the Night.  It was a light night on Twitter, but Wolken brings up a good point that will much discussed in the early offseason not that long from now about the NBA lockout and its (possible) impact on students leaving school early.

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

An intriguing non-conference game, Bruce Pearl’s return and an ACC bubble battle headline tonight’s schedule. All rankings from RTC and all times Eastern.

Xavier @ Georgia – 7 pm on ESPNU (***)

Mack Is Still An Underrated Coach, In Our Opinion

These teams last met in the first round of the 2008 NCAA Tournament, the year Dennis Felton’s Georgia team made an incredible run through the SEC Tournament to steal the automatic bid. Xavier has won eight of nine games coming into tonight’s matchup while Georgia has won two straight after starting 3-4 in SEC play.

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Tuesday night Bruce Pearl will return to the sidelines for Tennessee for the first time this season during an SEC game.  He served an eight-game suspension as meted out by the conference office, and his Volunteers navigated the league waters all right without him in the interim (5-3 with two overtime losses).  Pearl’s top assistant, Tony Jones, adequately took over for him during his time off, but it should be noted that UT has so far played the tenth-best schedule (or third-worst, depending on how you like to view it) in the conference — beginning with tomorrow night’s rivalry game at Kentucky, the games get significantly tougher.  In addition to that one, UT faces road trips to Vandy and Florida in coming weeks, not to mention the season-ending game in Knoxville versus the Wildcats. 

Pearl is Smiling to Be Back in Action.

Pearl is a larger-than-life figure in the national landscape and especially on the Tennessee campus, but it might be overstating things to say that his return will suddenly catapult UT back into the thick of the SEC race or the Top 25.   Remember that in the midst of the eight-game hiatus, Pearl made a one-game return appearance in the Vols’ trip to Connecticut, a game where they played well before succumbing to Kemba Walker and company, 72-61.  But they still lost, as they had done to four other teams in the non-conference schedule, including home defeats to Oakland, USC and Charleston.  While it may be a nice storyline to discuss whether the Vols will rally around their returning leader as they head into the home stretch of the season, the question in our minds is whether such an expectation is realistic.  We took a look at a couple of team performance statistics to see if there were any significant changes between the with- and without-Pearl games.

A couple of things jump right out at us from an eyeballing of the data.  First, the Vols under Jones went from a team that rated among the top twenty fastest teams in America at 72.1 possessions to a much-slower middle-of-the-pack 66.5 possesssions in SEC play.  This is partially the result of playing slower teams like Florida, LSU, Alabama and Auburn, but we also think it represents a slight strategy shift from Jones to emphasize taking better care of the ball and utilizing more patience than before.  The second thing we noticed is that it actually appears through defensive points per possession that the Vols, while slowing things down a smidge, have played better defensively as a unit since Jones took over the reins.  This makes sense, as in four of its five SEC wins Tennessee held its opponents under sixty points.  In the two home losses in overtime, UT had shots in the air to win in regulation, suggestive that if there’s a deficiency, it’s probably on the offensive end — otherwise, the Vols could be sitting at 7-1 and leading the SEC East at the moment. 

Of course, some of the improvement defensively could be attributed to a better understanding of the schemes and player development over the past several weeks while Pearl has been out of game action.  Keep in mind that he’s been allowed to continue holding practices and preparing his team for each game despite not being allowed to actually attend those contests.  It’ll be interesting to see if the Tennessee defense remains better throughout the rest of the SEC season or if the Vols revert back to some of their older, pre-conference season habits.  We’ll certainly continue to track this team, as they remain one of the most interesting squads of anybody in the country, both from an off-court and a basketball perspective. 

Jesse Baumgartner is an RTC contributor. In this weekly piece he’ll review the five things he loved and hated about the previous seven days of college basketball. This week, Jesse goes nuts (as did most people) on the whole Larry Drew II situation and claims Brandon Knight isn’t a real point guard (God help us), and then takes his place in the long line of Wild Bill fans.

The Five Things I Loved This Week

I LOVED…..“Wild Bill” from the Utah State student section. Apparently I missed this guy last year, but you sure can’t miss him when you’re an opposing player at the free throw line. You get a couple options, too, when you’re playing the Aggies. Wild Bill could choose to expose his rather robust cleavage, or he might switch things up and don an elephant costume – like he did this last week against Nevada. Of course there’s also the Winnie the Pooh outfit, too. Personally I’m waiting for the first free-throw line victim that just starts cracking up. You know they want to, so I’d just let it loose for a few seconds so you could concentrate on the freebie.

How Can One Not Love This?

I LOVED…..three things that came out of Larry Drew II’s decision to quit on UNC (don’t worry, I rant about it in the HATE section, too). First off, UNC looked dynamite without him on Sunday against Florida State and showed again that the team is bigger than the decisions of one disgruntled player. Then there was Roy Williams, who said in the wake of Drew’s decision that “Z (7-footer Tyler Zeller) thinks that he can” be a factor at the point. And finally, check out Tar Heel swing man Dexter Strickland’s hilarious Tweet after realizing he’ll be the back-up point guard: “I gotta get on my Deron Williams swag for Sunday…lol @KButter5 (PG Kendall Marshall) I got u son!”

I LOVED…..some innovative expression from the Pac-10. This time it was Arizona point guard Lamont “MoMo” Jones, who went off for 27 points and hit multiple clutch shots in a dramatic 3OT-road win against Cal. “I’ve played like this my whole life,” said Jones. “To other people it might be something new, but to me it’s just another day in the life of MoMo Jones.” Players take note. If you want to be quoted, nothing does it faster than referring to yourself in the third person. Gets ‘em every time.

I LOVED…..that for all the talk of a weak SEC and a strong, dynamic Kentucky, the Wildcats are now 4-4 in conference play after taking a spill against Florida this weekend. Once again, that which we take for granted in college basketball comes back to bite us in the…whatever you call it. I stand by a statement I made after watching UK in Maui at the start of the season – Brandon Knight must become an actual point guard. Point guards don’t have assist-turnover ratios of 83-75. This UK team can make a run, but they need Knight to perhaps limit his scoring a bit (which is tough, since he’s a stud in that department) and get his teammates better looks on a consistent basis.

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If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com. We will add to this post throughout the day as the submissions come in so keep on sending them.

Top 25 Games

• #2 Texas 76, Texas Tech 60: “The No. 3 Texas Longhorns remained undefeated in the Big 12 conference with a 76-60 victory over the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Texas has now navigated half its conference season unscathed and is off to its best ever start in the Big 12 at 8-0. That is the good news. However, for the first time in Big 12 play, the Longhorns failed to play a full 40 minutes, and the lack of effort and execution should give Rick Barnes plenty of game tape to refocus the ‘Horns for the rest of February and March.” (Burnt Orange Nation)
• #3 Kansas 86, Nebraska 66: “In the Jayhawks final trip to Lincoln during Big 12 Conference play Kansas continued their recent run on the offensive end. Since the Jayhawks dropped the one and only game of the season to Texas things have turned for the better at Kansas as the Jayhawks have taken what was already one of the most efficient offenses in the country to another level. The game in Lincoln certainly had a different feel than the matchup earlier this season between these two teams in Lawrence. In the first game the tempo and style went exactly the way Nebraska wanted it to. The game was ugly, it was slow and Kansas barely squeaked out a win.” (Rock Chalk Talk)
• #12 Villanova 66, West Virginia 50: “Having nibbled two points off of Villanova’s lead (47-40) and with just over 11 minutes left in the game, West Virgninia went 1-11 and 1-4 from the line over an eight minut stretch as Villanova blew the game open with a 17-3 run that made the score 64-43 with just over three minutes left.” (Villanova by the Numbers)
• #17 Georgetown 83, Providence 81: “The Georgetown Hoyas extended its Big East winning streak to six games today with a 83-81 win over the Providence Friars.  BARELY. The Hoyas were paced by Austin Freeman with 23 points. Marshon Brooks led the Friars with 43 points in a virtuoso performance for the ages.” (Casual Hoya)

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If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com. We will add to this post throughout the day as the submissions come in so keep on sending them.

Pre-Game Analysis

• #3 Kansas at Nebraska: “While the faces have remained the same, some things have in fact changed about Nebraska since the first meeting in Lawrence. Or perhaps it’s more a matter of Nebraska has actually shown the ability to win a few games and be who they claimed to be on paper prior to the Big 12 season beginning. The Huskers are now 15-6 overall and 3-4 in the conference. Are they the most difficult matchup for the Jayhawks, hardly. What they do though is ugly it up and play defense. A few have circled this one as a potential stumbling block. “(Rock Chalk Talk)
• Colorado at #11 Missouri: Previewing the rematch of a Big 12 game that the Buffs won earlier this year by 13 points. (Rock M Nation)
• West Virginia at #12 Villanova: A big game for both teams as the short-handed Mountaineers try to stay on the top half of the Big East and the Wildcats try to keep pace with Pittsburgh atop the conference. (Villanova by the Numbers)
• Providence at #17 Georgetown: Breaking down a big game for the Hoyas if they hope to keep pace with the rest of the contenders in the Big East against a Providence team that has racked up some big wins over the years. (Casual Hoya)
• #19 Syracuse at USF: The Orange are coming off a big win at UConn, but will need to win another game on the road to build momentum if they want to move back up the Big East standings. (Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician)
• #24 Illinois at Northwestern: “I have braced myself for an upset loss to Northwestern on Saturday. Not because I don;t think the Illini are better than Northwestern, they showed that last month, but because the trends of this season all point toward the Illini playing poorly against lesser talented teams away from the Assembly Hall. The Illini are 3-6 in games played outside of Champaign Illinois, with the three wins coming against Gonzaga in Seattle, Maryland in New York, and at Iowa. The Illini have lost every road game since Iowa, and have been held below their season scoring average in every game. Its no coincidence we have also caught every team in absolute desperation mode, where the teams have absolutely needed a win to keep their season from going completely off the rails, we have caught teams on their biggest promoted home games of the year, and are viewed as a big enough name to rush the court on, but a vulnerable enough opponent to have it happen to us three times.” (Hail to the Orange)
• St. John’s at UCLA: Previewing Steve Lavin’s return to Los Angeles and a big game for both teams. (Bruins Nation or Rumble in the Garden: Part 1 or Part 2)
• Wake Forest at Maryland: After their loss at home against Duke the Terrapins look to rebound against a significantly weaker opponent. (Testudo Times: Part 1 and Part 2)
• Alabama at Tennessee: “The biggest opportunity of Tennessee’s season will unfold over the next eight days:  today’s home date with league leading Alabama, followed by road trips to Lexington and Gainesville.  It’s not make-or-break – recall that last year the Vols went to Lexington and Nashville in the same week and lost by a combined 30 points.  That dropped us from 6-2 to 6-4,  but the Vols followed up by winning five of their last six and then made the Elite Eight.  The season won’t be over if things go poorly in the next eight days, but if Tennessee wants to win the SEC, there’s no bigger opportunity than beating the league leader and winning on the road in Rivalry Week. We thought Alabama would be the final turn of a four game victory lap against the SEC West, but they’ve become the beginning of a much longer and much more difficult home stretch.” (Rocky Top Talk)
• Michigan at Penn State: Previewing the Wolverines trip to play the Nittany Lions. (UM Hoops)

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

On paper, this isn’t the best weekend of games. However, this is college basketball where anything can happen. You just never know what could happen and it may end up being a thrilling couple of days, anyway. All rankings from RTC and all times Eastern.

West Virginia @ #12 Villanova – 12 pm Saturday on ESPN (****)

Yet another big game in the Big East features two teams tied for third place at 6-3 in league play. The winner will tie second place Notre Dame, just a game and a half behind first place Pittsburgh. West Virginia has won seven of nine games and rebounding has been a big reason why. The Mountaineers have not been out-rebounded by an opponent since a New Year’s Day game at Marquette, plus their defense has been solid. West Virginia has scored only 58 PPG over their last four games (three of them without leading scorer Casey Mitchell) but has held opponents to an average of 50 PPG over the same stretch, culminating in holding Seton Hall to 44 points on Wednesday. Bob Huggins’ team is #5 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage but will have to bring their A-game on the glass against Villanova. The Wildcats rank 20^th in keeping opponents off the offensive boards and were led by the interior duo of Antonio Pena and Mouphtaou Yarou in their most recent win over Marquette. They combined for 32/15 and have been huge factors this season as Jay Wright isn’t counting exclusively on his guards to win games anymore. Although West Virginia has rebounded the ball extremely well of late, they still rank only #291 in opponent’s offensive rebounding percentage, allowing teams to grab 35.6% of their misses. Villanova will likely miss a lot of long range shots against West Virginia’s #2 ranked three point defense (allowing 27%) so offensive rebounding will be important for both teams, especially the Wildcats, in this game. Coach Huggins used 6’7 John Flowers on Seton Hall’s Jeremy Hazell in their last game and he successfully shut down the Pirates’ gunner. Might we see the same thing on Villanova’s Corey Stokes? It’s a good possibility, though Flowers may be needed inside more often to double Pena and Yarou. Flowers leads the Big East in blocked shots and needs to have another good defensive game against a Villanova team that can score in bunches. The Wildcats score 25.6% of their points from the foul line and attempted 33 free throws against Marquette. Villanova is very difficult to beat when they get to the stripe because they shoot 78% and get there so often. Dribble penetration from Corey Fisher and Maalik Wayns leads to good looks inside and plenty of free throw opportunities. West Virginia has to do a good job defending the dribble drive and Kevin Jones will be a key player in doing so. Jones is a taller player who, along with Flowers, will form the second line of defense if the Wildcat guards are able to get into the lane. Jones is also a warrior on the glass, going for 13/12 in his last game. With the status of Casey Mitchell still uncertain, West Virginia will have to stick to typical “Huggy-ball” more than ever, and that’s physical defense and great rebounding. Villanova is 16-0 when they score at least 70 points but only 2-4 when they fail to do so. With the way West Virginia is rebounding and playing defense right now, it’s very possible that this game could be in the 50’s or 60’s. We’re going to go with the upset and take the Mountaineers on the road in this game.

#10 Kentucky @ Florida – 9 pm Saturday on ESPN (****)

With a win on Saturday night, Florida can really create some separation between themselves and Kentucky. With a win against the Wildcats, Florida will hold a two and a half game lead over UK and remain ahead of Tennessee, a team they beat on the road already. Quite simply, a win here puts Florida in a commanding position in the SEC East. Of course, that won’t be so easy against the nation’s fourth ranked team in eFG% defense. The Gators have won 9 of 11 games but Kentucky will be their toughest test since a meeting with Ohio State back in November. The Wildcats are coming off a loss at Ole Miss earlier this week, a game in which they committed 18 turnovers and didn’t defend the three point line well at all. Freshman point guard Brandon Knight had six of those turnovers and needs to do a better job tonight. Young teams can’t turn it over and expect to win on the road no matter how talented they are and Kentucky is finding out the hard way. With a 2-4 record in true road games, the Wildcats need to grow up quick if they want to play deep into March. Knight needs to create shots for himself and others, taking advantage of UK’s 40% shooting from deep. With Doron Lamb shooting the ball very well recently, Kentucky has plenty of threats to win this game. A key battle in this game will be at the forward spot as Kentucky’s freshman Terrence Jones goes up against Florida senior Chandler Parsons. Jones averages 18/9 and had 22/12 at Ole Miss while Parsons has been on an absolute tear on the glass of late. Controlling the boards will be critically important in a game that could be all about pace. The Gators would like to slow the game down and work in the half court while the Wildcats are comfortable at a quicker pace. To keep the tempo in their favor, Florida has to win the rebounding battle and make shots. The Gators are #10 in offensive rebounding percentage but the matchup between Jones and Parsons, as well as Vernon Macklin and Josh Harrellson at the center position, will likely determine who controls the glass in this game. If Harrellson can shut down Macklin (Festus Ezeli of Vanderbilt did a good job of this in the last game), the onus will be on Parsons to carry the Gators yet again. With Erving Walker hitting only 7 of his last 33 threes (21%), Florida will work the ball inside even more than they already do. The Gators get 56.8% of their points from two point range but will face the #4 interior defense in the country. Kentucky allows opponents to shoot only 41% from two point range while Florida is making 50.5% of their two point shots. This should be a physical game and whoever controls the interior will likely come out on top. Despite their road woes, we think John Calipari’s team will be ready to play tonight and hand the Gators their fourth home loss, disappointing the big crowd sure to be at the O-Dome for ESPN Game Day.

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