Throughout Monday, we will roll out our region-by-region analysis on the following schedule: East (9 AM), South (11 AM), Midwest (2 PM), West (4 PM). Here, Brian Otskey (@botskey) breaks down the East Region from top to bottom. Also, be sure to follow our RTC East Region handle on Twitter for continuous updates the next two weeks (@RTCeastregion).

You can also check out our RTC Podblast with Brian breaking down the East Region here.

East Region

Favorite: #1 Syracuse (31-2, 17-1 Big East). Despite losing to Cincinnati in the Big East semifinals, the Orange are the clear favorites and will have plenty of fans in Beantown to cheer them on, assuming they advance. SU features a transition attack that’s arguably the best in the nation, usually sparked by Dion Waiters off the bench.

Jim Boeheim and Syracuse Are The Favorites, But The Path to New Orleans Is Loaded With Tough Opponents (AP)

Should They Falter: #2 Ohio State (27-7, 13-5 Big Ten). I was tempted to slot #3 Florida State in this space but the Seminoles are too inconsistent for my liking to be a legitimate Final Four threat. Ohio State is a terrific team but not nearly as good as last year’s outfit which had Jon Diebler to bury a perimeter jumper. Even so, the Buckeyes are still capable of reaching New Orleans.

Grossly Overseeded: #11 Texas (20-13, 9-9 Big 12). This is an exaggeration because I thought the Selection Committee did a very nice job with the seeding across all regions. But I have to pick someone, right? I’ll go with the Longhorns, a team I didn’t have in my projected field of 68. Texas has four RPI top 50 wins but three of those came against teams seeded on the eighth line in this tournament. The Longhorns are 4-11 against top 100 competition, a fact that I felt should have kept them out of the Big Dance.

Grossly Underseeded: #5 Vanderbilt (24-10, 10-6 SEC). Again, this is a very minor quibble. As I said before, I thought the Committee did an admirable job seeding the teams. I had Vanderbilt pegged for a #4 seed after beating the best team in the country (Kentucky) in the SEC championship on Sunday. The Commodores won 16 games against the RPI top 100, with two of those coming against top 10 opponents either on the road (Marquette) or a neutral site (Kentucky). In fact, only one of Vandy’s five RPI top 25 wins has come at home. That’s impressive and an indicator of a team that can do some damage in this event despite its recent history of early flameouts.

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1. Just a few days after we dismissed a Charles Robinson report as being rather mundane, he comes back with a big story on the FBI investigation into Varez Ward and alleged point-shaving at Auburn. Ward, who was suspended prior to the team’s game on February 25, reportedly attempted to convince members of the team to shave points. According to the report, at least two games (a January 25 loss to Arkansas and a February 7 loss to Alabama) are drawing the most interest as potentially suspect games. Based on Robinson’s reports of those games, Ward’s play seems to be more problematic in the second while the first is a little less clear. We have not reviewed the game tapes and have not have any access to the FBI report, but this is certainly a story worth following.
2. It probably should not be a newsworthy decision, but given all of the dumb early entries we have seen over the years it is worth noting that LeBryan Nash announced yesterday that he will be returning to Oklahoma State for his sophomore season. Coming into the season, Nash was projected to be a potential one-and-done player with his athleticism and the potential to shine on a stage devoid of another elite NBA talent, but Nash’s season was hindered by several nagging injuries. While Nash still projects as a potential late first round pick, his game is still rough around the edges and he needs work both shooting (39.4% FG and 23.5% from 3) and becoming a consistent defender. Cowboys fans may have been somewhat disappointed in Nash’s performance this year, but they should be thrilled to have him for at least one more season.
3. Connecticut‘s main focus for next season is the pending decision by the NCAA on whether or not the team will be allowed to play in the 2013 NCAA Tournament, but it appears that it is not that clear if they would even be allowed to play in next year’s Big East Tournament. According to the conference, they need to address their conference championship across all sports to create a conference-wide policy, but in the case of the Huskies there is also the underlying concern that the conference would award its automatic bid to a team that would not be able to use it. It is extremely unlikely that the Big East would be a one-bid conference, but all the same it would be fairly embarrassing to a conference that has received a lot of negative publicity recently with all of the schools defecting from it.
4. Over the years there have been plenty of organizations that have worn patches to honor a fallen colleague. They are typically for an injured or deceased individual or in rare cases a disenfranchised individuals. We are guessing the patch worn by officials during the ACC Tournament to honor Karl Hess falls under the latter category. Hess, who has long been a controversial official, declined to participate in the ACC Tournament following his decision to remove NC  State legends Tom Gugliotta and Chris Corchiani from the stands last month during a game and Hess was removed from his next ACC assignment. When he was offered an opportunity to officiate the ACC Tournament, Hess, a regular at the ACC Tournament opted to work the Big East Tournament instead. While at some level we can appreciate the solidarity of the officials here, it does seem like a rather idiotic statement to make and the officials in the latter games removed the patches after being instructed to do so by the conference.
5. Over the past two years, we have read plenty of articles about the rise of Harvard basketball, but this piece in The Harvard Crimson is probably the most exhaustive we have seen on the subject so far. If you haven’t been keeping up with Harvard basketball and want to know pretty much everything there is to know about how the program was overhauled, this would be a very good place to start. One of the more interesting aspects is that the writers (all Harvard students) do not hold back with any of the criticisms of the school including questionable recruiting practices and objections to lowering academic standards to bring in the players to create a basketball of this caliber.

As we move through Championship Week, we’ll continue to bring you short reviews of each of the automatic qualifiers to help you fill out your bracket next week. In this post, we have your SoCon, Ivy, NEC, Patriot, and Big Sky conference champions. Here’s what you need to know about these recent bid winners.

Davidson

• Southern Conference Champion (25-7, 19-2)
• RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin = #66/#67/#69
• Adjusted Scoring Margin = +8.8
• Likely NCAA Seed: #13-#14

Davidson Is Back in the Dance Looking For More McKillop Magic (AP/B. Leverone)

Three Bruce Pearls of Wisdom.

1. First of all, let’s put this to rest immediately. Although Davidson’s record of 25-7 is nearly the same as it was in 2008 when the Wildcats came within a long three-pointer of the Final Four, this year’s team is not nearly as good as that one, led by a young Stephen Curry. But it wouldn’t be a Bob McKillop-coached team if it wasn’t dangerous, and the Wildcats are certainly that, as their mid-December upset win over likely #1 seed Kansas attests. Led by a group of sophomores and juniors who can score inside and out, Davidson likes to get out in transition and spread the floor in the halfcourt. All five starters are capable of hitting the three-ball (34% to 37%), and although the Wildcats won’t beat you that way, they use the threat of it to find easy looks inside. Whoever draws this team in its first game will have its hands full with the Davidson offense.
2. McKillop’s defense, however, is a bit of a different story. The Wildcats don’t turn teams over and, at least against good opponents, have a lot of trouble stopping dribble penetration. Duke dropped 82 on the Wildcats as Austin Rivers and Seth Curry had 17 points each; Vanderbilt went for 87 as Jeffery Taylor and John Jenkins combined for 52 points; Wichita State had 91 in a win where Joe Ragland dropped 30 and his backcourt mate Toure’ Murray added 16 more. You get the point. Athletic scoring guards are a big problem for the Wildcats.
3. Given those conditions, Davidson is projected to play a #3 or #4 seed in next week’s NCAA Tournament. Among the teams in that group, there are a few that they absolutely do not want to see under any circumstances. For example, Michigan’s Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr., would be disastrous. On the other hand, Georgetown’s Jason Clark and Martel Starks would be much more manageable. As the Wildcats have already shown against the Jayhawks once this year, they are a dangerous squad if the conditions are right. We wouldn’t bet on them pulling another first game upset this year, but keep an eye on teams built like them (high offense, no defense) for possible victims.

Harvard

• Ivy League Champion (26-4, 12-2)
• RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin = #36/#38/#43
• Adjusted Scoring Margin = +8.4
• Likely NCAA Seed: #10-#11

Tommy Amaker Has His Harvard Team Focused on the NCAAs (US Presswire/G. Cooper)

Three Bruce Pearls of Wisdom.

1. Harvard basketball has been in the news a lot lately, mostly due to former player Jeremy Lin’s emergence as an NBA star point guard. But when Tommy Amaker and his team watched Penn lose to Princeton on Tuesday night, the Crimson sealed their first NCAA Tournament berth in 66 years. Not once did this team make it during Lin’s tenure, and Harvard is finally back in the Big Dance this year thanks to a terrific defense and overall efficient team. This squad challenged itself in the non-conference and won the Battle for Atlantis Tournament that included a field of Connecticut and Florida State. They also defeated St. Joseph’s and finished with a strong 12-2 record in the Ivy League with only two close losses to top competitors Princeton and Penn. Read the rest of this entry »

Michael James is the RTC correspondent for the Ivy League. You can also find his musings on Twitter at@mrjames2006 and @ivybball.

Reader’s Take

A Look Back

In by far the toughest Ivy since the 1970s, Harvard delivered exactly as expected, slogging through the treacherous league slate with a 12-2 mark and a second Ivy title. What wasn’t expected was the company the Crimson would have at the top. The average expectation had no other Ivy teams eclipsing the 10-win plateau, but Penn paid no heed to those projections. After losing to Harvard 56-50 at home to fall two games off the pace, the Quakers ripped off an amazing stretch of seven straight wins to climb even in the loss column after the final Ivy back-to-back weekend. But tradition left Penn with work to do. Its second-most difficult game of the season still remained – the annual meeting with rival Princeton after the rest of the league’s regular seasons had already drawn to a close. The Tigers double-teamed Quaker star Zack Rosen all game, stifling the Penn offense, and executed efficiently on the other end, cruising to a 10-point victory and ending the Quakers’ title hopes.

It was a historic year for the league by a variety of metrics. The league has never posted a higher Pomeroy Rating in the efficiency era, has never had seven non-conference wins over Pomeroy Top 100 teams in a season, and has never had a higher ranked team in the Pomeroy era than Harvard at No. 37. It is also currently hanging on to the 13th spot in the Conference RPI rankings, which would eclipse the 2001-02 mark of 14th, and could have as many as four teams earn postseason bids. With so many pivotal seniors, it will be hard for the Ivies to avoid a collective step back, but with a solid incoming freshman class, don’t expect a return to the dark ages of 2008 and 2009.

Tommy Amaker and Harvard Paced An Outstanding Ivy League Campaign (AP)

Yale and Princeton each posted solid campaigns, flirting with the RPI Top 100 for most of the season and building postseason-worthy resumes – the former by its quantity of wins and the latter with its quality. Columbia had a great non-conference run followed by an incredibly unlucky Ivy campaign, while Cornell did just the opposite, stumbling a bit outside the league, before putting together a solid 7-7 mark in Ivy play. Brown and Dartmouth had forgettable seasons, but the Bears will return several players from injury and ineligibility while the Big Green will see its talented freshmen continue to grow and mature.

Conference Accolades

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Last Update: Wednesday, March 7, 5:49 PM ET.

Changes:

• Connecticut jumps to the #9 seed line following their Big East Tournament win over West Virginia. The Huskies boast six RPI top-50 wins including a sweep of the Mountaineers, a true road win at Notre Dame and a neutral court victory over Harvard. UConn is safely in the field and they face Syracuse on Thursday in a game where they have nothing to lose and everything to gain.
• West Virginia is now a horribly mediocre 19-14 overall and 9-10 in Big East play. During most other seasons that would punch their ticket to the NIT, but due to the soft bubble, Pac-12 struggles and lack of bid stealers thus far, Bob Huggins’ team is still projected to make the tournament by a decent margin. At the moment they sit as the final #10 seed on the S-Curve but will likely drop as teams below them have opportunities to gather quality wins during the week. Despite the shoddy record, WVU does boast a #45 RPI, #16 SOS and has beaten projected NCAA teams Georgetown, Kansas State, Miami, Cincinnati, USF and Akron, while UConn isn’t considered a “bad” loss.

• Last Four In: Northwestern, Xavier, Texas, South Florida.
  
• First Four Out: Seton Hall, Drexel, Tennessee, Oregon.
  
• Next Four Out: Dayton, NC State, Oral Roberts, St. Joseph’s.            

3/7 S-Curve

1 Seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, North Carolina

2 Seeds: Duke, Michigan State, Missouri, Ohio State

3 Seeds: Marquette, Michigan, Baylor, Georgetown

4 Seeds: Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida State, Temple

5 Seeds: Wichita State, Murray State, UNLV, Louisville

6 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Florida, Notre Dame, Creighton

7 Seeds: Saint Mary’s, Iowa State, San Diego State, Gonzaga

8 Seeds: New Mexico, Kansas State, Purdue, Memphis

9 Seeds: Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Alabama, Connecticut

10 Seeds: Southern Miss, Virginia, Harvard, West Virginia

11 Seeds: Colorado State, Mississippi State, California, BYU

12 Seeds: VCU, Miami, Washington, South Florida, Long Beach State

13 Seeds: Texas, Xavier, Northwestern, Nevada, Davidson

14 Seeds: South Dakota State, Akron, Belmont, Montana

15 Seeds: Loyola (MD), Bucknell, Detroit, UT-Arlington

16 Seeds: UNC-Asheville, LIU-Brooklyn, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State, Savannah State, Western Kentucky

Automatic bids: Stony Brook, Temple, North Carolina, Belmont, Kansas, Syracuse, Montana, UNC-Asheville, Michigan State, Long Beach State, VCU, Memphis, Detroit, Harvard, Loyola (MD), Akron, Savannah State, Creighton, San Diego State, LIU Brooklyn, Murray State, Washington, Bucknell, Kentucky, Davidson, UT-Arlington, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky, South Dakota State, Saint Mary’s, Nevada.

Bids per conference: Big East (9), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), ACC (5), Mountain West (4), Atlantic 10 (3), WCC (3), Conference USA (2), Missouri Valley (2), Pac-12 (2).

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[Ed. note: Technical difficulties last night led to late publication of this post. For that, we apologize.]

Last Night’s Lede. For some in the Northeast, the Big East Tournament is the most spectacular event in the college basketball season. The classic six overtime Connecticut-Syracuse game from the 2009 tourney was replayed last night on ESPNU and brought us all on a trip down (recent) memory lane to one of the best games of the past decade. The conference’s powerhouses will hopefully bring us some more classic moments in Madison Square Garden this week, though Tuesday night’s first round didn’t include a single close game. Elsewhere, three more NCAA Tournament bids were earned in small conference tournaments, and the Ivy League’s champion was also determined a bit earlier than expected. Let’s get into the rundown of another fun Championship Week night…

Your Watercooler Moment.  South Dakota State Finally Dances.

SDSU Celebrates Its First Ever Trip to the Dance (Summit League)

It was a shocker when top-seeded Oral Roberts fell in the semifinals of the Summit League Tournament last night to Western Illinois, and last night’s heavily favored Jackrabbits nearly suffered the same fate. WIU led for much of the night on Tuesday and had a chance to win this game in regulation but could not convert. The Leathernecks (great team name, by the way) had another chance to tie or win it in overtime down by two but again fell short, giving South Dakota State its first ever Summit League championship and NCAA Tournament berth. The Jackrabbits have a mid-major star in Nate Wolters, who averages 21.5 points, 6.1 assists, and 5.1 rebounds per game, and will look to lead SDSU to an upset victory in next week’s Big Dance. South Dakota State has a fine RPI of #55 and could actually end up as a #14 or even #13 seed, giving it a realistic chance to bust open a bracket with an upset or two. Wolters scored just 14 points on 5-22 shooting in Tuesday’s low-scoring, 52-50 affair, but the guard is capable of going for 30 in any game.

Last night’s Quick Hits…

• Western Kentucky the Most Unlikely Bid Winner Thus Far. In early January, Western Kentucky was a 5-14 team that had just fired its head coach after one of the strangest finishes you’ll ever see to a game, in which WKU’s opponent used six players on the final possession to win the game. Interim coach/permanent coach Ray Harper is now two months later leading the Hilltoppers to the NCAA Tournament after their 74-70 win over North Texas on Tuesday night. This Sun Belt champion was the #7-seed in the tournament and will enter the NCAA’s as the sixth team in the past decade to have a record below .500, at 15-18. This resilient Western Kentucky team has gone through a wild ride and now will surely be playing early next week as part of the tournament’s ‘First Four’ games, looking to advance to take on a #1 seed. Read the rest of this entry »

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

• Last Four In: Northwestern, Xavier, Texas, South Florida.
  
• First Four Out: Seton Hall, VCU, Tennessee, Oregon.
  
• Next Four Out: Dayton, NC State, Arizona, St. Joseph’s.              

click on bracket to enlarge

S-Curve

• 1 Seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, North Carolina
• 2 Seeds: Duke, Michigan State, Missouri, Ohio State
• 3 Seeds: Marquette, Michigan, Baylor, Georgetown
• 4 Seeds: Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida State, Temple
• 5 Seeds: Wichita State, Murray State, UNLV, Louisville
• 6 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Florida, Notre Dame, Creighton
• 7 Seeds: Iowa State, Gonzaga, San Diego State, New Mexico
• 8 Seeds: Kansas State, Purdue, Memphis, Saint Mary’s
• 9 Seeds: Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Alabama, Southern Miss
• 10 Seeds: Virginia, Harvard, Connecticut, West Virginia
• 11 Seeds: Colorado State, Mississippi State, California, BYU
• 12 Seeds: Miami, Washington, South Florida, Texas, Long Beach State
• 13 Seeds: Xavier, Northwestern, Drexel, Nevada, Oral Roberts
• 14 Seeds: Davidson, Belmont, Akron, Montana
• 15 Seeds: Denver, Valparaiso, Loyola (MD), Bucknell
  
• 16 Seeds: UT-Arlington, UNC-Asheville, LIU-Brooklyn, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley, Savannah State

Read the rest of this entry »

Tonight’s Lede. Friday night is usually reserved for the likes of the Ivy League and the MAAC, but that’s not the case during Championship Fortnight. With eight mid-major conference tournaments in action and 22 more teams eliminated from national title contention tonight, there were plenty of reasons to stay interested. Furthermore, we were treated with some compelling Ivy action as well as another look at one of the surprise teams of not only the Big East but also the entire country this year. Let’s jump into it…

Your Watercooler Moment. Cooley Than You.

Jack Cooley Is One of the Big East's Biggest Surprises This Year (US Presswire)

Just four days after Jack Cooley’s worst game of the year — a two-point, zero-rebound outing at Georgetown — the junior center returned to the lineup with a vengeance tonight, going for a 27/17 masterpiece on 10-15 shooting from the field to lock his team into a double-bye at next week’s Big East Tournament. The fact that we just wrote the previous sentence — that Notre Dame finished in the top four of the Big East standings and received a double-bye — is nothing less than phenomenal and a testament to the vast improvement of Cooley and several of his teammates this season. After losing its top three players to graduation (Ben Hansbrough, Carleton Scott) and injury (Tim Abromaitis), nobody expected the youthful Irish to do much of anything this year. Instead, Mike Brey’s team is now locked into the #3 seed in next week’s conference tournament and owns the only victory of the season over the Syracuse juggernaut. We’re not completely sold on the Irish making a deep run into March Madness, but the fact of the matter is that Mike Brey is one of the most underrated coaches in the country given that he’s pushed his team to six straight 20-win seasons and will make the NCAAs for the fifth time in six seasons.

Tonight’s Quick Hits…

• Harvard Keeps Hope Alive. It’s seemed a foregone conclusion for months that Harvard would win the Ivy League’s automatic bid this season and earn its first trip to the NCAA Tournament in over six decades. After last weekend’s home loss to Penn, however, the Crimson and Quakers were locked in a tie with two defeats each in the loss column. The Ivy doesn’t do artificial tiebreakers — like last year’s Harvard-Princeton classic, they decide their ties on the court. With alumnus Jeremy Lin watching from the stands in Morningside Heights tonight, Harvard barely survived Columbia in a nail-biting game that went to overtime. Penn kept the pace with an easier win over Brown, but HU will travel next to Cornell while the Quakers still have a home game against Yale before its rivalry game at Princeton on Tuesday. With one more win Saturday, the Crimson are at least guaranteed a berth in the Ivy playoff game again, but they probably do not want to tempt the basketball gods by losing that one.

• Read the rest of this entry »

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

• Last Four In: Xavier, Miami, BYU, South Florida
• First Four Out: Northwestern, VCU, Oregon, Arizona
• Next Four Out: St. Joseph’s, Dayton, NC State, UCF

(italics indicates auto bid)

1 Seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke, Kansas

2 Seeds: Michigan State, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio State

3 Seeds: Baylor, Michigan, Georgetown, Marquette

4 Seeds: Indiana, Wisconsin, Wichita State, Florida State

5 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Louisville, Temple, Murray State

6 Seeds: Florida, UNLV, Notre Dame, San Diego State

7 Seeds: New Mexico, Creighton, Gonzaga, Purdue

8 Seeds: Iowa State, Saint Mary’s, Kansas State, Cincinnati

9 Seeds: Alabama, Memphis, Southern Miss, Saint Louis

10 Seeds: Virginia, California, Harvard, Seton Hall

11 Seeds: Long Beach State, West Virginia, Connecticut, Washington

12 Seeds: Mississippi State, Texas, Colorado State, South Florida, BYU

13 Seeds: Miami, Xavier, Oral Roberts, Iona, Drexel

14 Seeds: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, Akron, Davidson

15 Seeds: Belmont, Valparaiso, Montana, UT-Arlington

16 Seeds: Bucknell, LIU-Brooklyn, UNC-Asheville, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley, Savannah State

Read the rest of this entry »

Brian Otskey is the Big East correspondent for RTC and a regular contributor. You can find him @botskey on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

We are going to mix it up a bit for the final three days of the season. There are so many good games on the schedule that it wouldn’t do them justice to leave them unmentioned, not to mention the games with an impact for bubble teams. Here are some quick hitters on all the games you need to be following.

Top games:

West Virginia @ South Florida – 12:00 PM EST Saturday on ESPN FullCourt/ESPN3.com (****)

The Bulls notched a huge win over Louisville earlier this week, but many feel they still have to win this game to ensure their spot in the NCAA Tournament. The Mountaineers are hanging on by a thread but could really enhance their chances with a nice road victory in Tampa. This game has Big East Tournament implications as well, but both teams need it more for their NCAA chances. As a member of the Big East, South Florida has beaten 14 of the 15 other teams in the league. West Virginia is the only team they have yet to knock off. This would be one heck of a time to grab that win in West Virginia’s last regular season game as a member of the Big East. Pretty much everything is on the line in this game.

Can West Virginia Win A Big One On The Road?

#11 Georgetown @ #8 Marquette – 2:00 PM EST Saturday on ESPN FullCourt/ESPN3.com (****)

Both teams are obviously in the NCAA Tournament so this game is about seeding more than anything. A win over the Golden Eagles would be Georgetown’s ninth against the RPI top 50 and fifth against the top 25. Marquette has just one RPI top 25 win (Wisconsin) so adding another could really help Marquette’s seeding when the NCAA committee debates next Sunday in Indianapolis. The winner of this game will grab the #2 seed in next week’s Big East Tournament. The contrast of styles in this game will be fascinating as Marquette looks to run at home against a disciplined Georgetown defensive unit.

Read the rest of this entry »