Bracketology S-Curve Update: 03.05.12

Posted by zhayes9 on March 5th, 2012

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

  • Last Four In: Northwestern, Xavier, Texas, South Florida.
  • First Four Out: Seton Hall, VCU, Tennessee, Oregon.
  • Next Four Out: Dayton, NC State, Arizona, St. Joseph’s.              

click on bracket to enlarge


  • 1 Seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, North Carolina
  • 2 Seeds: Duke, Michigan State, Missouri, Ohio State
  • 3 Seeds: Marquette, Michigan, Baylor, Georgetown
  • 4 Seeds: Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida State, Temple
  • 5 Seeds: Wichita State, Murray State, UNLV, Louisville
  • 6 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Florida, Notre Dame, Creighton
  • 7 Seeds: Iowa State, Gonzaga, San Diego State, New Mexico
  • 8 Seeds: Kansas State, Purdue, Memphis, Saint Mary’s
  • 9 Seeds: Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Alabama, Southern Miss
  • 10 Seeds: Virginia, Harvard, Connecticut, West Virginia
  • 11 Seeds: Colorado State, Mississippi State, California, BYU
  • 12 Seeds: Miami, Washington, South Florida, Texas, Long Beach State
  • 13 Seeds: Xavier, Northwestern, Drexel, Nevada, Oral Roberts
  • 14 Seeds: Davidson, Belmont, Akron, Montana
  • 15 Seeds: Denver, Valparaiso, Loyola (MD), Bucknell
  • 16 Seeds: UT-Arlington, UNC-Asheville, LIU-Brooklyn, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley, Savannah State

Automatic bids: Stony Brook, Temple, North Carolina, Belmont, Kansas, Syracuse, Montana, UNC-Asheville, Michigan State, Long Beach State, Drexel, Memphis, Valparaiso, Harvard, Loyola (MD), Akron, Savannah State, Creighton, San Diego State, LIU Brooklyn, Murray State, Washington, Bucknell, Kentucky, Davidson, UT-Arlington, Mississippi Valley State, Oral Roberts, Denver, Saint Mary’s, Nevada.

Bids per conference: Big East (9), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), ACC (5), Mountain West (4), Atlantic 10 (3), WCC (3), Conference USA (2), Missouri Valley (2), Pac-12 (2).

To clinch a bid:

  • Southern Miss- Reach the Conference USA Tournament semifinals by beating East Carolina/Rice in the quarterfinals then Tulsa/Marshall/SMU in the semifinals
  • Virginia- Beat NC State in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals (quarterfinal win vs. BC would not clinch bid)
  • Harvard- Win the Ivy League regular season title
  • Connecticut- Beat DePaul in the Big East Tournament first round then West Virginia in the second round
  • West Virginia- Beat Connecticut in the Big East Tournament second round
  • Colorado State- Beat TCU in the Mountain West tournament quarterfinals then San Diego State in the semifinals
  • Mississippi State- Beat Georgia in the SEC Tournament first round then Vanderbilt in the quarterfinals
  • California- Beat Stanford/Arizona State in the Pac-12 Tournament quarterfinals then Oregon in the semifinals (semifinal game vs. Colorado/Utah would not clinch bid)
  • BYU– regular season over
  • Miami- Beat Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament first round then Florida State in the quarterfinal and Duke in the semifinal (semifinal win vs. Clemson/Virginia Tech would not clinch bid)
  • Washington- Win the Pac-12 Tournament
  • South Florida– Beat Villanova/Rutgers in the Big East Tournament second round then beat Notre Dame in the quarterfinals
  • Texas- Beat Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinal (may need to beat Missouri in the semifinal depending on bubble picture)
  • Long Beach State- Reach the Big West Tournament final
  • Xavier- Beat Dayton in the Atlantic 10 Tournament final then Saint Louis in the semifinal (semifinal game vs. La Salle/Richmond would not clinch bid)
  • Northwestern- Beat Minnesota in the Big Ten Tournament first round then Michigan in the quarterfinal (may need to beat Ohio State in semifinal depending on bubble picture)
  • Seton Hall- Beat Providence in the Big East Tournament first round then Louisville in the second round
  • VCU- Win the CAA Tournament
  • Tennessee- Beat Ole Miss/Auburn in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals then Vanderbilt/Mississippi State in the semifinals (semifinal game vs. Georgia would not clinch bid)
  • Oregon– Win the Pac-12 Tournament
  • Dayton– Reach the Atlantic 10 Tournament final by beating Xavier and Saint Louis
  • NC State– Reach the ACC Tournament finals by beating Boston College, Virginia and then Florida State/Miami/Georgia Techno
  • Arizona– Win the Pac-12 Tournament
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