Bracketology S-Curve Update: 03.07.12

Posted by zhayes9 on March 7th, 2012

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Last Update: Wednesday, March 7, 5:49 PM ET.


  • Connecticut jumps to the #9 seed line following their Big East Tournament win over West Virginia. The Huskies boast six RPI top-50 wins including a sweep of the Mountaineers, a true road win at Notre Dame and a neutral court victory over Harvard. UConn is safely in the field and they face Syracuse on Thursday in a game where they have nothing to lose and everything to gain.
  • West Virginia is now a horribly mediocre 19-14 overall and 9-10 in Big East play. During most other seasons that would punch their ticket to the NIT, but due to the soft bubble, Pac-12 struggles and lack of bid stealers thus far, Bob Huggins’ team is still projected to make the tournament by a decent margin. At the moment they sit as the final #10 seed on the S-Curve but will likely drop as teams below them have opportunities to gather quality wins during the week. Despite the shoddy record, WVU does boast a #45 RPI, #16 SOS and has beaten projected NCAA teams Georgetown, Kansas State, Miami, Cincinnati, USF and Akron, while UConn isn’t considered a “bad” loss.
  • Last Four In: Northwestern, Xavier, Texas, South Florida.
  • First Four Out: Seton Hall, Drexel, Tennessee, Oregon.
  • Next Four Out: Dayton, NC State, Oral Roberts, St. Joseph’s.            

3/7 S-Curve

1 Seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, North Carolina

2 Seeds: Duke, Michigan State, Missouri, Ohio State

3 Seeds: Marquette, Michigan, Baylor, Georgetown

4 Seeds: Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida State, Temple

5 Seeds: Wichita State, Murray State, UNLV, Louisville

6 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Florida, Notre Dame, Creighton

7 Seeds: Saint Mary’s, Iowa State, San Diego State, Gonzaga

8 Seeds: New Mexico, Kansas State, Purdue, Memphis

9 Seeds: Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Alabama, Connecticut

10 Seeds: Southern Miss, Virginia, Harvard, West Virginia

11 Seeds: Colorado State, Mississippi State, California, BYU

12 Seeds: VCU, Miami, Washington, South Florida, Long Beach State

13 Seeds: Texas, Xavier, Northwestern, Nevada, Davidson

14 Seeds: South Dakota State, Akron, Belmont, Montana

15 Seeds: Loyola (MD), Bucknell, Detroit, UT-Arlington

16 Seeds: UNC-Asheville, LIU-Brooklyn, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State, Savannah State, Western Kentucky

Automatic bids: Stony Brook, Temple, North Carolina, Belmont, Kansas, Syracuse, Montana, UNC-Asheville, Michigan State, Long Beach State, VCU, Memphis, Detroit, Harvard, Loyola (MD), Akron, Savannah State, Creighton, San Diego State, LIU Brooklyn, Murray State, Washington, Bucknell, Kentucky, Davidson, UT-Arlington, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky, South Dakota State, Saint Mary’s, Nevada.

Bids per conference: Big East (9), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), ACC (5), Mountain West (4), Atlantic 10 (3), WCC (3), Conference USA (2), Missouri Valley (2), Pac-12 (2).

To clinch a bid:

  • Southern Miss- Reach the Conference USA Tournament semifinals by beating East Carolina/Rice in the quarterfinals then Tulsa/Marshall/SMU in the semifinals
  • Virginia- Beat NC State in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals (quarterfinal win vs. BC would not clinch bid)
  • Colorado State- Beat TCU in the Mountain West tournament quarterfinals then San Diego State in the semifinals
  • Mississippi State- Beat Georgia in the SEC Tournament first round then Vanderbilt in the quarterfinals
  • California- Beat Stanford/Arizona State in the Pac-12 Tournament quarterfinals then Oregon in the semifinals (semifinal game vs. Colorado/Utah would not clinch bid)
  • BYU– regular season over
  • Miami- Beat Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament first round then Florida State in the quarterfinal and Duke in the semifinal (semifinal win vs. Clemson/Virginia Tech would not clinch bid)
  • Washington- Win the Pac-12 Tournament
  • South Florida– Beat Villanova/Rutgers in the Big East Tournament second round then beat Notre Dame in the quarterfinals
  • Texas- Beat Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinal (may need to beat Missouri in the semifinal depending on bubble picture)
  • Long Beach State- Reach the Big West Tournament final
  • Xavier- Beat Dayton in the Atlantic 10 Tournament final then Saint Louis in the semifinal (semifinal game vs. La Salle/Richmond would not clinch bid)
  • Northwestern- Beat Minnesota in the Big Ten Tournament first round then Michigan in the quarterfinal (may need to beat Ohio State in semifinal depending on bubble picture)
  • Seton Hall- Beat Louisville in the Big East Tournament second round
  • Tennessee- Beat Ole Miss/Auburn in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals then Vanderbilt/Mississippi State in the semifinals (semifinal game vs. Georgia would not clinch bid)
  • Oregon– Win the Pac-12 Tournament
  • Dayton– Reach the Atlantic 10 Tournament final by beating Xavier and Saint Louis
  • NC State– Reach the ACC Tournament finals by beating Boston College, Virginia and then Florida State/Miami/Georgia Techno
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