Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.   He’ll be regularly out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.

Welcome to the first edition of Your Bubble Has Burst here on the new and improved RTC. I’m your resident bracketologist Zach Hayes here to give you a midweek update on the state of the all-important bubble, my favorite topic of conversation this time of year. I’ve classified every team in NCAA contention under four categories: locks (certainly in the field), comfortably in (they can pretty much depend on their name being called barring an epic collapse), work left to do (teams that need to win games to ensure their spot or risk being left out) and on the brink (teams not quite on the bubble that need to win and win often immediately). Let’s get right into it:

Note: all computer numbers prior to Thursday’s games.

Atlantic Coast

Locks: The three ACC locks- Duke, North Carolina and Clemson– are all likely top-four seeds in the NCAA Tournament. They boast RPIs in the top 15, with Duke landing at #4 and North Carolina at #5. The Tar Heels victory Wednesday in Durham drops Duke to a likely #2 seed with Clemson in the 3-4 range. These three teams should stay around this spot and are all Final Four threats in the top-heavy ACC.

Comfortably in: Wake Forest’s loss to their fourth unranked ACC team pushes them down a level. We’d still bet on them being a top-four seed on Selection Sunday, but you never know with this amount of youth, inexperience and inconsistency. Wins over Duke and Carolina help tremendously. Florida State has established themselves as a likely top-6 seed in the field by nearly defeating #1 seeds Pitt and North Carolina at home along with a huge comeback win at Clemson on Saturday. They also have excellent computer totals (20 RPI, 32 SOS) and 4 wins against the RPI top 50. The Seminoles need to stay focused due to a challenging schedule down the stretch, with vengeful Clemson and desperate-for-wins Miami and Virginia Tech visiting Tallahassee and trips to Wake, Duke, BC and Virginia Tech. There are no softies down the stretch.

Work left to do: Boston College could have used a win over Clemson Tuesday at home; instead, they risk going 0-4 (Duke and @ Miami) during a crucial ACC stretch. Luckily, they finish with Florida State and Georgia Tech at home with a visit to NC State, so they should be able to end strong and feel fairly good. Virginia Tech is aided by Duke and North Carolina visiting Blacksburg down the stretch, but let’s not forget those are games against Duke and North Carolina. They must take advantage of games at home vs. Georgia Tech and Florida State, along with a road contest at ACC punching bag Virginia. Miami is only 4-6 in the conference but seems to be improving with a beatdown of Wake Forest and near win at Cameron. They sit squarely on the bubble but end the campaign with BC, @Virginia, @Georgia Tech and NC State, four very winnable games. It could come down to the ACC Tournament for these four teams.

On the brink: Believe it or not, 15-8 (4-5) Maryland is still alive. They absolutely MUST beat Virginia Tech at home on Valentine’s Day to have a chance. Then they’d hope to win at NC State and Georgia Tech while stealing a home game against the top 3- Wake, Duke and North Carolina. This is a very high hill to climb for Gary Williams who I’m sure wishes he could have another shot at Miami and Florida State (two last second losses). They really hope to get to 8-8 and make an ACC Tournament run.

Big East

Locks: The Big East currently boasts two projected #1 seeds- RPI #1 Pittsburgh and #3 Connecticut. It’s extremely likely the Big East will garner two #1 seeds on Selection Sunday, and I’d be shocked if Pitt and Connecticut weren’t the two represented at the top of the bracket given their non-conference performance (as opposed to Louisville) and overall talent level. Louisville has rebounded nicely to a #2 seed in the projected field and have a favorable yet dangerous schedule down the stretch with road games against Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Georgetown and West Virginia (combined: 18-25). Villanova made tremendous progress towards moving to a 2-seed with their convincing win against Marquette last night. They hold a 10 RPI and 22 SOS down the stretch, while Marquette is trending the other way with a horrifying schedule (UConn, @Pittsburgh, @Louisville, Syracuse, @Georgetown remaining).

Comfortably in: Syracuse has hit a rough patch lately, but still should feel pretty good about where they stand. A 22 RPI and 21 SOS are solid numbers. They still have home games vs. Cincinnati, Rutgers and Georgetown with a visit to St. John’s on the slate.

Work left to do: West Virginia didn’t qualify for the comfortably in category because of their 5-6 conference record, but I’ll be shocked if they don’t make the field. They have a great chance in every single game the rest of the way with road contests at Rutgers, Cincinnati and South Florida and Louisville posing the toughest home threat. Their 15 RPI and 6 SOS are excellent totals. Bob Huggins’ former school, Cincinnati, still needs more wins to make up for a lacking non-conference resume. The win at Georgetown on Saturday was huge as are home games vs. West Virginia and Louisville near the end of February. Providence holds a 7-5 record in the conference with word before the season that 10-8 should be enough. Considering they have two games vs. Rutgers and Notre Dame at home, it may happen. Georgetown is also lurking as a team that probably needs to get to 9-9 and win twice in New York. They’ll have to sweep Marquette, Louisville and DePaul at home and steal a game on the road, a daunting task.

On the brink: Seton Hall has won five in a row to creep within bubble territory, fattening up against inferior competition. With their next three vs. Connecticut and at Marquette and pesky St. John’s, it could end soon. Much like Georgetown, the goal is to find a way to get to 9-9 and make a Big East Tournament run. Notre Dame is 3-7 and needs a miracle to find themselves in the field with a 79 RPI and weak non-conference SOS. They also play road games against Connecticut, West Virginia and Providence.

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A few notes:

• As you’ll notice, I included a comment about each and every team in the bracket. I’ll be doing this in each of my final four brackets (2/16, 2/23, 3/2 and 3/7) as we head towards Selection Sunday.
• Expect a Bubble Watch post from me on Thursday updating the current bubble picture, a feature that will run very similar to ESPN’s weekly bubble watch.
• As always, any questions/comments/complaints about this week’s bracket, feel free to comment.

Automatic Bids: Boston University, Xavier, North Carolina, East Tennessee State, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Weber State, VMI, Michigan State, Long Beach State, Northeastern, Memphis, Butler, Princeton, Siena, Buffalo, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, San Diego State, Robert Morris, Morehead State, UCLA, Holy Cross, LSU, Davidson, Sam Houston State, Alabama State, North Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, Utah State

Last Four In: Arizona, Miami, Nebraska, Michigan
Last Four Out: Wisconsin, BYU, UNLV, Kansas State
Next Four Out: Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, Providence, Penn State
Also Considered: Georgetown, Texas A&M, Baylor, Creighton, Maryland, Saint Mary’s, Northwestern, Tulsa

1 Seeds

• Connecticut- The #1 overall seed and #1 team in the polls, Connecticut boasts 6 wins against the top 50 and still has two contests against Pittsburgh remaining on the schedule.
• Oklahoma– The Sooners have the most wins vs. the top 100 (15) of any team, but only 1 of those victories has come vs. the top 25. They’re the #2 overall seed.
• North Carolina– The projected ACC champion has continued to win while Duke and Wake Forest slipped up multiple times. The showdown with Duke on Wednesday is for a #1 seed.
• Pittsburgh– Despite two conference losses, Pitt garners the final #1 seed due to their #2 RPI, 4 wins vs. the top 25 and a much stronger non-conference resume than Louisville.

2 Seeds

• Duke– Despite the throttling by Clemson, Duke still owns the top overall RPI and have 7 wins against the RPI top 50. They can reclaim the ACC automatic bid this week.
• Louisville– A sexy 9-1 Big East record and 4 wins vs. the RPI top 25 keep Louisville a comfortable 2. They should watch out for pesky Notre Dame this week.
• Michigan State– The projected Big Ten champion has stayed the same all season- Michigan State. A 7 RPI, 6 SOS and comfortable lead over Ohio State and Illinois means they should stay there.
• Marquette– The final #2 seed goes to the fourth Big East team in the field already- Marquette. They slipped in Tampa but still 9-1 and 20 wins overall is enough to grab the honor.

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A few notes for this week’s edition:

– Louisville is a 1-seed because they’re the projected Big East champions. This could change in less than 24 hours should they fall to Connecticut at home, a very plausible scenario. Both Louisville and Marquette are undefeated in the conference, but I gave the edge to the Cardinals because I feel they’re the slightly better team. It’s my bracket and I’ll do what I want.

– As much as some will be screaming for Wake to garner the final #1 seed over Duke because of the win on Wednesday, the RPI advantage (Duke: 1, Wake: 13) and 1.5 game advantage in the ACC standings stand taller. Wake and North Carolina grab 2 seeds.

– One thing I anticipated that came to fruition when doing this bracket is the amount of muddled mediocre teams in the 4 seed to 7 seed range of the bracket. It seems as if just a couple outcomes could change vault a team like Kansas from a 4 to a 7/8 or California the other direction. Kansas and Villanova made huge progress this week in the seeding because so many teams in that very range faltered.

– The two conferences that seem to always shift projected winners from week to week are the SEC and Pac-10. It was difficult to deny South Carolina the SEC automatic bid and subsequent leap to a 7-seed after they beat Kentucky in Rupp (5 seed slide for the Wildcats this week). In the Pac-10, UCLA had an impressive couple of games while Arizona State collapsed, California slid and Washington lost to Arizona. The Bruins re-claim the Pac-10 auto bid and a 3-seed, jumping 3 seeds from a week ago.

– Penn State makes their first appearance in the field as a 10-seed. Their 71 RPI and 128 SOS stand out as lacking, but a 6-3 Big Ten record and win at Michigan State and home vs. climbing Purdue help greatly.

– The highest rated RPI team to miss the field? You probably guessed correctly with Georgetown at 17. Oklahoma State missed with a 27 RPI and the highest team to not even be remotely considered was UAB at 44. Disappointing season for Mike Davis.

– Michigan and Wisconsin finally fell out of the bracket. Both still have a chance to make a run, though. Michigan has the wins over Duke and UCLA to boast, while Wisconsin has the #37 RPI and #3 SOS. The Badgers have a crucial week ahead.

– Notre Dame has a long way to go to get back into the bracket. 12-8 (3-6) with a  77 RPI and just 2 wins over the RPI top 100 is a very porous resume at this point. They look like an NIT team.

– Tennessee desperately needed that win over Florida at home and pulled it out. A 19 RPI and 2 SOS with a victory over Marquette will help them. Improved guard play and defensive effort and they’re not out of the picture for the SEC championship.

– Just when you think Arizona is dead, they sweep the Washington schools at home and are lurking.

– Saint Mary’s still remained solidly in the field after their loss to Gonzaga, but fell out following the blowout loss to Portland on Saturday. They have the 179 SOS and zero wins vs.. the top 50. With Patrick Mills out for 4 weeks, they may miss the madness.

– As always, the results/predictions for winners of each game are just for fun.

Last Four In: Providence, San Diego State, Utah, Virginia Tech
Last Four Out: Georgetown, Saint Mary’s, Northwestern, Miami (FL)
Next Four Out: Oklahoma State, Michigan, BYU, Arizona

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As always, a few bracket notes:

– Shocker: The Missouri Valley and Mountain West are now 1-bid leagues. The strength of the Big 6 “BCS” conferences has never been stronger. Both of the aforementioned conferences are stuck in a period of spread out mediocrity and lack the two or three standout teams to make the field. I simply cannot put Illinois State anywhere near the bracket with three conference losses and a total lack of quality wins. The Mountain West I expect to be a 2-bid league on Selection Sunday. BYU was one of three teams left for the last spot that went to Boston College and Utah was the highest RPI team to be left out of the bracket. San Diego State is also lurking.

– If I asked you to name the team with the most wins against the RPI top 100, you’d probably guess Duke. Or Connecticut. Or Pittsburgh. Maybe North Carolina. Nope, the team with the most top-100 wins is Oklahoma at 12-1, including a 7-0 record against the top 50. The Sooners are surely deserving of their #1 ranking, along with two Big East teams- Connecticut (my projected winner) and Pittsburgh (#2 in RPI). Duke is the #1 overall seed and #1 in RPI, with North Carolina and Wake Forest barely missing the cut.

– Michigan State may have been stunned by Northwestern at home this week, but they still have the computer numbers and the projected Big 10 championship, meaning the Spartans hang on to the last #2 seed. Surging Louisville at 6-0 earns the other, along with UNC and Wake.

– Following their huge win over UCLA at home, the Washington Huskies are now the projected Pac-10 winners. They’re slightly over-seeded at 4 because of that honor. Congrats, you get Tennessee in the first round!

– Wouldn’t guess that Siena has the #20 RPI, #29 SOS and 7 wins against the RPI #51-100, would you? It’s true, folks. Speaking of mid-majors, I’m not sure why anyone can have Davidson higher than a 10 seed. The 37 RPI is decent, but a 115 SOS and 1-3 vs. the RPI top 100 (West Virginia) doesn’t jump out for me. And last year is completely irrelevant.

– The last team out, USC, and the last team in, Boston College, have nearly identical resumes. Fortunately for the Eagles, they have two more wins vs. the RPI top 100 and are boosted by the completely inexplicable win in Chapel Hill. They’ll be riding that win all the way to Selection Sunday.

– UCLA drops all the way to a 6 seed? Considering they haven’t beaten a team in the field of 65, yes. I may have even been generous.

– The most significant Saturday game may have been Xavier toppling LSU in Baton Rouge. An LSU win would have given them a win against the RPI top 25. Instead, they were barely considered at all. Xavier jumps up to a 3 seed with the win. The #4 RPI and #6 SOS doesn’t hurt, either. Runner up: Oklahoma State winning at Nebraska in overtime. They’d likely be out with a loss in that one.

– Notre Dame somehow managed a 68 RPI and 83 SOS in the Big East, meaning their 12-6 (3-4) record looks poor. They need to beat Marquette on Monday night to stay in the field.

– Virginia Tech may have had the best week of any team in the nation, taking down #1 Wake Forest on the road, then beating Miami on the road in overtime Sunday night. That effort is enough to propel them to a #8 seed after they were completely left out of the bracket last week.

Last Four In: Boston College, Tennessee, South Carolina, Dayton
Last Four Out: BYU, Southern Cal, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
Next Four Out: Penn State, Utah, Providence, Stanford

Automatic bids: Binghamton, Xavier, Duke, East Tennessee State, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Weber State, VMI, Michigan State, Long Beach State, VCU, Memphis, Butler, Cornell, Siena, Buffalo, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, UNLV, Robert Morris, Austin Peay, Washington, Navy, Kentucky, Davidson, Texas A&M-Corpus Christ, Alabama State, North Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, Utah State.

Multiple bids per conference: Big East (9), ACC (8), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (6), Pac-10 (4), SEC (4), Atlantic 10 (2), West Coast (2).

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As always, a few notes to consider as you scavenge the bracket:

• Two of the four top seeds were clear: Wake Forest as the #1 overall and their ACC counterpart Duke. The other two were to go to conference champions, meaning North Carolina is out of the running even though you could make the case they’re the 3rd best team in the country. As strong as the Big East is this season, their projected champion deserves the nod. Pittsburgh receives the slight edge and the third #1 over Connecticut because Pitt’s one loss (@Louisville) is a tad less regretful than UConn’s (vs. Georgetown). Big 12 champion Oklahoma barely edges Big Ten champion Michigan State with one less game in the loss column for the final #1 seed. Spartan fans won’t be quite as upset once they see the bracket.
• You may be asking: How can Georgetown with 2 Big East losses receive a #2 seed, while 4-0 Louisville gets a 3, 17-2 (overall) Syracuse gets a 3 and 5-0 Marquette gets a 4 seed? For one, the two Hoya losses were vs. Pittsburgh and at Notre Dame, two very excusable defeats (not to mention @ Duke OOC). Louisville’s bad losses out of conference (Western Kentucky, UNLV) still hurt and Marquette’s 5-0 Big East record comes without a truly impressive victory. Georgetown is also boosted by a 6 RPI and 1 SOS with 7 wins vs. the RPI top 100. While Marquette probably deserves a 3 seed along with Louisville and Syracuse, three Big East teams with the same seed causes conflicts. Sorry, Buzz, you get the bump down to a 4.
• Kentucky does not have the resume or quality wins to garner a 6 seed by themselves, but since I have them projected to win the lowly SEC tournament, the committee should give them a boost on Selection Sunday like they have past conference champions.
• Even with California‘s defeat at the hands of rival Stanford on Saturday, UCLA‘ s loss at home to Arizona State (and ASU’s prior loss to USC earlier in the week) means Cal keeps the automatic Pac-10 bid and remains a 3 seed. Instead UCLA falls to a 6 seed with surprisingly weak computer numbers (45 RPI, 98 SOS, 4-3 vs. top 100).
• You might be wondering: Notre Dame an 8 seed? It’s true, folks. A 61 RPI, 102 SOS, 3-3 Big East record, a bad loss to St. John’s and a complete inability to win on the road will do that. Big game for them Saturday vs. Connecticut.

Last Four In: Dayton, Missouri, Utah, Texas A&M
Last Four Out: UNLV, Mississippi State, Illinois State, Arkansas
Next Four Out: Maryland, LSU, Southern Cal, Virginia Tech

– Dayton and Illinois State have eerily similiar resumes, but it was hard to ignore ISU’s atrocious SOS (232) and Dayton’s huge win over Marquette, so the Flyers get the nod. Missouri creeps in riding that win over California in November and with a decent 39 RPI on the season. Texas A&M defeated Baylor earlier in the week to keep them in the field and Utah is boosted by outstanding computer numbers (21 RPI, 13 SOS). Mississippi State boasts a 3-0 SEC record, but hasn’t even played a team in the RPI top 50. Arkansas is the polar opposite- big wins over Texas and Oklahoma, but fall out of the field with their 0-3 SEC start. Maryland had a brutal week blowing a huge second half lead at Miami and losing in overtime to Florida State.

Multiple bids per conference: Big East (9), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (7), ACC (6), Pac 10 (5), SEC (3), West Coast (2), Atlantic 10 (2), Mountain West (2).

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.   He’ll be regularly out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.

Conference play is beginning to heat up (what a game between Wake Forest and North Carolina on Sunday night) and that means the bracket is starting to become a bit less muddled. This week saw 10 teams trade places in the bracket and a major shift amongst the top four seeds. I used RPI, SOS, record, conference record and wins vs. RPI top 1-50 while evaluating the true bubble teams by their individual resumes. Please leave any thoughts/gripes in the comments.

Quick notes:

• By now you know the routine: I factor in conference tournaments for the automatic bids. Meaning that while Tennessee probably doesn’t deserve their 5-seed, I have them projected to win their conference tournament. That results in three extra wins prior to Selection Sunday and a seed boost. This used to apply for Oklahoma (1), California (3) and Michigan State (3), but now you can make the argument those are proper seeds regardless of the conference championship. Memphis (6), Gonzaga (7) and San Diego State (9) do receive the slight boost.
• The top seeds are much more clear this week with the #1’s going to Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Duke and Oklahoma. North Carolina drops to 0-2 in the ACC and a 2 seed, joining undefeated Clemson and one-loss Connecticut and Syracuse. Not too much debate there. Projected Big 10 champion Michigan State garners a 3-seed, while the Cal Bears huge 3OT victory in Seattle mean they move ahead of UCLA as the projected Pac-10 champion. The other 3-seeds are Georgetown and those Bruins.
• Arkansas had a golden opportunity to claim the projected SEC champion berth, but fell at home in a stunner to Mississippi State. Tennessee at 1-0 remains in that position with their squeaker over Georgia.
• Dayton barely sneaks into the field as my Last Team In, carrying two wins over the RPI Top 50 (most notably Marquette), while Kentucky’s best win is a squeaker over 8-seed West Virginia. Oklahoma State’s 21 SOS, 2 wins over the RPI Top 50, 12-3 record and conference victory over Texas A&M on Saturday carry them barely into the bracket. Maryland (bad loss to Morgan State but have those quality wins over both Michigan schools) and Florida State (riding that win over Cal, also beat Florida) also sneak in.
• Illinois State’s bad loss at Indiana State, along with a 251 SOS, mean they’re removed from the field. Boston College had a terrible week after their monumental upset in Chapel Hill, losing to Harvard and Miami at home, dropping the Eagles out. Missouri losing at Nebraska was a crucial defeat.

Last Four In: Dayton, Oklahoma State, Maryland, Florida State
Last Four Out: Kentucky, Illinois State, Boston College, Missouri
Next Four Out: Creighton, Stanford, Arizona, South Carolina

Multiple bids per conference: Big East (9), Atlantic Coast (7), Big 10 (7), Big 12 (6), Pacific 10 (4), SEC (3), Mountain West (3), West Coast (2), Atlantic 10 (2).

Automatic bids: Binghamton, Xavier, Wake Forest, East Tennessee State, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Weber State, VMI, Michigan State, Long Beach State, George Mason, Memphis, Butler, Cornell, Siena, Miami (OH), Morgan State, Northern Iowa, San Diego State, Robert Morris, Morehead State, California, Navy, Tennessee, Davidson, Stephen F. Austin, Alabama State, North Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, Utah State.

New additions: Binghamton, East Tennessee State, Long Beach State, Miami (OH), Morgan State, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma State, Robert Morris, San Diego State, Weber State.

Dropped out: Belmont, Boston College, Illinois State, Missouri, LSU, Oakland, Portland State, Stanford, Quinnipiac, Vermont.

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.   He’ll be regularly out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.

Some notes before you check out the bracket:

• You’ll notice I have Oklahoma, a 1-loss team from the Big 12, as a #1 seed over undefeated Wake Forest from the much more strong ACC. The reasoning for this is simple: 1) I take into account what will happen in the future in terms of conference champions, and I have the Sooners projected to win the Big 12 regular season and conference tournament, giving them a huge boost before Selection Sunday and 2) it’s simply unrealistic to have three #1 seeds from the same conference. Although Wake Forest is undefeated and Duke/UNC have 1 loss each, their SOS sits at a dismal #224 with their best wins vs. Baylor and @ BYU, while Duke and North Carolina have more quality wins and better computer numbers. If I’m ranking the top four teams in the nation, Wake is there. But a team finishing in third in the ACC (where I have them projected, could change) simply cannot receive a #1 seed. Sorry Deacon fans.
• Once again, both Michigan State (#2), Tennessee (#3) and Memphis (#5) are slightly over-seeded for the same reason as Oklahoma. I have those teams winning their respective conference titles.
• Hard to believe, but Mike Montgomery’s California Bears have earned the right to a #4 seed with their wins @ UNLV, @ Utah and home this week against Arizona and Arizona State. I spent like 15 minutes trying to find the last 4 seed.
• Notre Dame took the hardest shot, slipping to a #7 seed with their bad loss at St. John’s. That Texas win looks excellent, but they need to take care of at home to avoid a 1-2 Big East start.Georgetown
• Boston College‘s stunning upset of North Carolina launched them to a #9 seed from the Last Team In.
• On my bracket, Syracuse and Louisville could meet in the second round. The committee would obviously not let that happen, but I’m leaving it to avoid switching teams to seeds they don’t deserve.
• George Mason took over the Colonial bid from Virginia Commonwealth while Saint Mary’s (13-1) earned the automatic bid from the West Coast Conference (Gonzaga is still in the field). With Illinois State’s thrashing of Creighton, they claim the Missouri Valley auto bid and jump a few seeds, while Creighton barely misses the field. UNLV now has the Mountain West bid with BYU still making the field. Stephen F. Austin, Oakland, Pacific and Morehead State are also new additions. Arkansas jumps into the bracket with their outstanding record and huge home win over Oklahoma.
• In the end, four spots remained for 13 teams. Edgar Sosa’s buzzer beater gave Louisville the very last spot, edging out Miami (lacked quality wins), Creighton, Oklahoma State (best win was Rhode Island) and, speaking of which, Rhode Island. Also in consideration were South Carolina (beat Baylor this week but still has a 304 SOS), Washington (lacked quality wins), Utah (bad losses) and Arizona (what happened?). USC almost sneaked into consideration before losing to Oregon State. Yikes.

Last Four In: Louisville, LSU, Missouri, Florida State
Last Four Out: Miami (FL), Creighton, Oklahoma State, Rhode Island
Next Four Out: Washington, Utah, South Carolina, Arizona

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.   He’ll be regularly out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.

Rather than wallow in my own pity after my Patriots were knocked out of the playoffs, it’s my duty here at RTC to provide our readers with another Monday morning bracketology. While the week was somewhat quiet due to the holiday, there were some significant upsets (Portland State!) and big wins (Texas winning in Madison) to shake up the bracket from last week’s edition. Once again, I took a still-developing RPI with a grain of salt and factored in non-conference SOS, but mostly I’m just digging through each team’s schedule to find quality wins/bad losses and comparing them to the other teams in the field for seeding.

As always, I mixed in a few upsets in the bracket for fun.

Some quick notes about the bracket:

• You might be thinking that Tennessee, Michigan State and UCLA are overseeded. While that may be true, I had to factor in each of those teams winning their respective conference tournaments before Selection Sunday, meaning they’d garner three significant wins and take the conference title.
• The four 1-seeds remained the same from last week: North Carolina, Connecticut, Pittsburgh and Oklahoma (I added the individual regions to the bracket and seeded these four teams closest to home).
• Texas received the final 2 seed with their road win over Wisconsin, slightly edging out Notre Dame.
• Baylor edged Syracuse for the final 4 seed. Baylor has a nice win over Arizona State and hung with Wake Forest while Syracuse’s three big wins- Florida, Kansas, Memphis– are all overrated.
• Biggest jump goes to Butler (10 to 7) while the biggest drop goes to Xavier (3 to 6). Butler won at Xavier on Monday.
• Kansas also took a three seed drop from 8 to 11 after their second half collapse at Arizona. Much like Illinois over Missouri, that was a very important game for a Kansas team looking for a signature win.
• Maryland continues to be boosted by their two wins over Michigan and Michigan State
• Portland State moves from a 15 seed to 14 seed with their shocking win over Gonzaga, with the Zags dropping to the last 3 seed on the table

Conference Winners: Vermont, Xavier, North Carolina, Belmont, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Portland State, VMI, Michigan State, Cal State Fullerton, VCU, Memphis, Butler, Cornell, Siena, Miami (OH), Hampton, Creighton, BYU, Quinnipiac, Austin Peay, UCLA, Navy, Tennessee, Davidson, Lamar, Alabama State, North Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, Utah State

Last Four In: California, Boston College, Kansas, Dayton

Last Four Out: Kentucky, Miami (FL), Cincinnati, Louisville

Departures: Murray State, Stetson

Arrivals: Austin Peay, Belmont

Bids per conference: Big East (8), ACC (7), Big 10 (7), Big 12 (6), Pac 10 (5), SEC (3), MVC (2), WCC (2), Atlantic 10 (2), MWC (2).

Not much change from last week in terms of the teams in the field. Next Sunday it could shake up a bit with all of these key bubble games:

Key Bubble Games for 12/29-1/5:

• Cincinnati at Memphis, 12/29- This would be a stellar win for Cincinnati, who are currently in the last four out.
• Seton Hall at Syracuse, 12/30- The Hall probably need wins over Syracuse and West Virginia to climb back into the picture.
• George Mason at Dayton, 12/30- Big game for Dayton in the bubble picture. If Mason should win this game, I may replace Vermont with the Patriots.
• Oklahoma at Arkansas, 12/30- Arkansas has a shiny record and zero good wins. This would qualify.
• Northwestern at Penn State, 12/31- Reaching here a bit, but you never know this early.
• UNLV at Louisville, 12/31- Louisville needs this game at home for a win over an NCAA team.
• USC at Oregon, 1/2- If USC wants to start creeping back, winning at Oregon is a good start.
• South Carolina at Baylor, 1/2- See Arkansas for South Carolina.
• Arizona at California, 1/2- Huge bubble game for both teams.
• Missouri at Georgia, 1/3- The Tigers cannot afford to slip up here.
• Tennessee at Kansas, 1/3- Believe it or not, KU is on the bubble. A win over 2-seed Tennessee would go a long way towards securing a bid down the road.
• NC State at Florida, 1/3- See Kansas for Florida. They’re lacking quality wins.
• Charlotte at Maryland, 1/3- If Maryland slips up here, they could be out of the field.
• West Virginia at Seton Hall, 1/3- Seton Hall needs this one at home.
• Washington at Washington State, 1/3- Washington State dropped from consideration for this bracket. This is the first step in working their way back.
• Creighton at Illinois State, 1/3- HUGE game in the Missouri Valley.
• Cincinnati at Marquette, 1/4- Cincinnati with another chance for a big win here.
• Kentucky at Louisville, 1/4- Biggest bubble game on the slate this week.
• Virginia Tech at Duke, 1/4- Virginia Tech can creep back into consideration if they can spring a huge upset at Cameron.
• Arizona State at California, 1/4- California is barely in. A win over Arizona State gives them more comfort.
• Arizona at Stanford, 1/4– Another big bubble game for Arizona.

Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.   He’ll be regularly out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.

Happy Holidays, everyone. My name is Zach Hayes and you might know me as a college hoops writer for the blog Northwestern Wins. Due to the unfortunate folding of that site, the head honchos here at Rush the Court graciously invited me on board as their Senior Bracketologist from now until Selection Sunday. Just think of me as Joe Lunardi but seven inches taller and without a hairpiece. Every Monday morning for the next six weeks or so a new bracket will be revealed until February heats up and multiple brackets per week will be released. I hope you guys enjoy this new RTC feature. For me, it’s just a ton of fun.

Quick disclaimers: The obvious one- it’s probably too early for bracketology (blasphemy! It’s never too early for this, how dare you! You know what I mean). RPI is still rounding into form at this point, and many key numbers I use from ESPN (Wins vs. Top 50, etc.) have yet to be released. I didn’t use much for this first bracket: record, conference strength, SOS, perused the individual schedules for quality wins/bad losses, and took RPI with a grain of salt. On the bracket you’ll notice I also made predictions for the entire tournament based on my matchups.  Syracuse as the monumental upset should surprise no one that follows college basketball.

These seedings are based purely on performance thus far. If I was projecting future performance, I’d probably have Louisville in the tournament because they have to improve, right? Other than some of the mid-major/small conference auto-bids (i.e., I’m predicting Creighton takes the Missouri Valley even though you’d go with Illinois State by default), these are all based on the small amount of games played thus far. As you know, this entire operation will improve once teams complete more of their resumes.

RTC Bracket 12.22.08

Some explanations about the first edition (click brackets or right-click/view image to see a larger version):

• The 1 seeds were pretty clear to me even before I began gathering info: North Carolina, Connecticut, Oklahoma and Pittsburgh. In fact, Pittsburgh and Oklahoma are 1-2 in RPI, respectively. Butler is #4 and Northwestern is #9, so take it for what it’s worth.
• #2 seed Tennessee and #3 seed Michigan State are probably over-seeded for their performance this season. But I had to take into account that I have both teams pegged to win their conference tournaments, meaning three extra wins before Selection Sunday that will certainly boost their seed.
• My bracket came down to 12 teams for 8 positions: California, Maryland, Florida State, Stanford, Miami, Boston College, Louisville, Kentucky, Dayton, Cincinnati, Illinois State and Arizona. As much as I wanted to deny Illinois State and Stanford because of their lack of any semblance of a quality win, they’re undefeated and I had to slip them in the field. Maryland has the wins over Michigan and Michigan State and Arizona has the win over Gonzaga, with two of their three losses by the narrowest of margins. Dayton is 10-1 and has the Marquette win, with their only loss at Creighton. Florida State has nice computer numbers and beat California, Cincinnati and Florida, meaning if they’re in, Cal has to be. Painfully, the final seed came down to Louisville (only average win: depleted Mississippi) and Boston College (only average wins: UAB, Providence, @Massachusetts). I went with BC.

Conference Winners: Vermont, Xavier, North Carolina, Stetson, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Portland State, VMI, Michigan State, Cal State Fullerton, VCU, Memphis, Butler, Cornell, Siena, Miami (OH), Hampton, Creighton, BYU, Quinnipiac, Murray State, UCLA, Navy, Tennessee, Davidson, Lamar, Alabama State, North Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, Utah State

Multiple bids per conference: Big East (8), ACC (7), Big 10 (7), Big 12 (6), Pac 10 (5), SEC (3), MVC (2), WCC (2), Atlantic 10 (2), MWC (2).

Last Four In: Boston College, Stanford, Florida State, California
Last Four Out: Louisville, Cincinnati, Miami (FL), Kentucky

Any questions please leave them in the comments and I’ll do my best to respond.

As you know, over the course of the last month and with the invaluable assistance of our correspondent brigade, we’ve rolled out 31 conference primers.  For each conference primer, we made a conscious attempt to provide a postseason seed for each and every NCAA team.  Now that we’ve finished, we thought it would be interesting to slot each team into a bracket taking into consideration the standard rules of seeding that the NCAA uses, and taking it one step further, play out the games as we would currently pick them.  Our results are below, so here is the first annual RTC Preseason Bracket.  (sorry for the small size, but if you click the image, you can see our predictions)

Just some brief additional information on conference affiliation (avg. seed):

• Big East – 9 teams  (4.8)
• Big 12 – 7 teams  (6.3)
• SEC – 6 teams  (7.2)
• ACC – 5 teams  (5.4)
• Big 10 – 4 teams  (6.3) 
• Pac-10 – 4 teams (5.8)
• A10, CUSA, Mtn West, Missouri Valley, WCC – 2 teams each  (7.9)
• All Other Conferences (20) – 1 team each  (13.8)

Tell us how stupid we are below in the comments.  (trust us, we know this bracket isn’t perfect)