RTC Top 25: Week 2
Posted by zhayes9 on November 22nd, 2010Here’s the RTC Top 25 for Week Two of the season. Please note that these games do not include any Monday results.
QnD Analysis.
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Here’s the RTC Top 25 for Week Two of the season. Please note that these games do not include any Monday results.
QnD Analysis.
Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.
Every year, coaches around the country will say there are 10-12 teams that have a legitimate shot to win the national championship. The regular season is the four-month grind where these teams are separated into clusters, from the favorites (as Kansas and Kentucky were a year ago), to the contenders (Duke and Syracuse) to the semi-contenders (Villanova, West Virginia and Ohio State) and the fringe contenders (Kansas State, Butler and Michigan State). Prior to tip-off 2010-11, it was a near consensus that the national champion would emerge from this group of 11 teams: Duke, Michigan State, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Kansas State, Villanova, Kansas, Florida, Syracuse, Gonzaga and Illinois. It was also common knowledge that one team stood taller than the rest of the pack: Duke.
After Ohio State’s 93-75 road thrashing of fellow title contender and preseason SEC favorite Florida, a dominating performance in which the Buckeyes shot 63% as a team and committed just eight turnovers against the Gators unrelenting pressure, Duke has company at the top. Anyone who watched the Buckeyes systematically and thoroughly deconstruct the Gators in front of their pom-pom waving raucous home crowd will confirm this bold statement: Ohio State can win the national championship in April.
The Buckeyes didn’t exactly surface out of nowhere. Thad Matta’s team was ranked a lofty #4 in the AP poll and our RTC rankings placed Ohio State even higher at #3. Yet, questions lingered regarding the legitimacy of Ohio State. Most pressing was an obvious query: could they replace national player of the year Evan Turner, a complete package that Matta relied on not only for late game scoring, but also as his steadfast point guard? And could they replace Turner with a freshman at that so very vital position? Would Jared Sullinger live up to the weight placed on his wide-bodied back since his first dunk at Columbus’ Northland High School as the Buckeyes first reliable low-block scoring presence in years?
Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist at Rush the Court.
Even though nearly every team has at least one game under their belt this season, Tuesday’s 24-hour hoops marathon is the unofficial day college basketball gets underway. ESPN did a fantastic job scheduling games that are meaningful, including a battle of top ten teams in Gainesville, reigning national runner-up Butler helping to open Louisville’s new arena and a matchup of two of the West’s best. In order for these teams to pick up resume-building wins at this early stage, here is one facet of the game they absolutely must control to give themselves the best chance at victory:
Miami at Memphis (12 AM ET)
How Memphis wins: Win the turnover battle. The Canes ranked a paltry 206th in the nation in turnover percentage a year ago and ranked just 195th in the country in forcing turnovers at the other end. Although departed senior Dwayne Collins was the biggest offender, starting guards Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant had a major hand in piling up the giveaways. If the Tigers unleash their speedy new backcourt, led by freshmen Joe Jackson, Will Barton and Chris Crawford, turning Miami over and taking care of the basketball on their end should lead to a sufficient number of possessions to take advantage of a Canes defense that was equally mediocre in 2010-11.
How Miami wins: Control the offensive glass. Memphis struggled mightily preventing their opponents from gathering offensive rebounds last season, ranking 305th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage surrendered. The Tigers allowed opponents to snatch a second chance opportunity on 36.4% of their possessions compared to the Division I average of 32.7%. Trotting out 6’11 Angel Garcia for more than 12 games this season should aid the cause, but if the Hurricanes can use their glut inside (most notably 6’10 behemoth Reggie Johnson who collected eight boards in Miami’s opening win over Jacksonville) for extra kick-out threes to Malcolm Grant (41% last year), Frank Haith’s squad may have the firepower to upset a Memphis team still trying to figure out rotations.
St. John’s at St. Mary’s (2 AM ET)
How St. John’s wins: Feed the big fellas. Remember Omar Samhan? The fun-loving, quotable, double-double machine that crept into the lexicon of every college basketball fan last March? Samhan and his 21/11 average graduated as a senior last year, leaving a gaping hole in the middle of the Gaels frontcourt. Samhan was as important to his squad as any player in the nation, playing over 80% his teams’ minutes and placing in the top 60 in the nation in numbers of possessions used, percentage of shots taken, offensive and defensive rebounding percentage and block percentage. The Gaels will try to plug the gap in the middle with Rob Jones, Clint Steindl, Kenton Walker and Mitchell Young, but a Big East-level talented bunch like the Johnnies should feed the paint over and over again. Justin Brownlee, Justin Burrell, Sean Evans and freshman Dwayne Polee all stand over 6’7 and leading scorer D.J. Kennedy is 6’6. It’s not like the Gaels were that proficient in defending two-point buckets with Samhan, anyway, ranking 116th in the country.
How St. Mary’s wins: Stick with your bread and butter: three-point shooting. St. John’s might be returning nearly all of their scoring from a year ago, but they also return the same core that allowed opponents to sink 36% of their threes, ranking 264th in the nation. This is splendid news for Randy Bennett and a Gaels team that averaged a stellar 41% from the same range a year ago and returns their two most accurate gunners — Mickey McConnell (51%, not a typo) and Matthew Dellavedova (40%). While St. John’s did a respectable job at guarding the paint in 2010-11, their perimeter defense is suspect.
Virginia Tech at Kansas State (4 PM ET)
How Virginia Tech wins: Let Malcolm Delaney draw fouls. Few players in the nation were as proficient as Delaney at finding the charity stripe last season. The all-ACC candidate ranked 32nd in the nation in fouls drawn per 40 minutes and in the last two seasons his free throw percentages are 87% and 84%. Delaney gets to the line plenty and takes advantages of those opportunities. His opponent on Tuesday, Kansas State, followed Delaney’s lead by getting to the line fewer than only three teams last season, but they also ranked near the dregs of Division I at allowing opponent free throw opportunities. This plays right into the hands of Delaney, especially when one considers the player that fouled with the lowest frequency is departed senior guard Denis Clemente. If Seth Greenberg can isolate Delaney 1-on-1 with Pullen, Tech may coax Kansas State’s All-American guard into foul trouble and leave Manhattan with a stunning victory in the process.
How Kansas State wins: Utilize their superior frontcourt depth. The story of this game isn’t necessarily the Delaney-Pullen duel in the backcourt, but how Virginia Tech can manage to keep this game competitive in a tough road environment with so little depth among the trees. Without J.T. Thompson or Allan Chaney to man the paint, it’s up to 6’8 Victor Davilla, 6’7 freshman Jarell Eddie and 6’6 wing Terrell Bell to contain the Wildcats assembly line of big men. Kansas State, meanwhile, can rotate Curtis Kelly, Jamar Samuels, Freddy Asprilla and Wally Judge in a fearsome foursome against the over-matched, outsized and likely fatigued Tech big men. Dominate the paint and Pullen may not even have to contribute too much scoring-wise. What could help Tech is Curtis Kelly’s appearance in Frank Martin’s doghouse at the end of the bench last Friday. We’ll see if the UConn transfer suits up for this one.
Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist at Rush the Court.
It would be foolish to draw too many sweeping conclusions after one rust-filled outing against inferior competition, but there are certain elements within a game that can provide a glimpse into what to expect during the season ahead. After watching a handful of games last night and tracking each and every box score this morning, these ten things caught my eye:
1. As is often the case in the SEC, Vanderbilt flew under the radar in the preseason. Kentucky’s ballyhooed freshmen class received the buzz, Florida was crowned the prohibitive favorite due to the return of five starters, Bruce Pearl’s recruiting indiscretions vaulted Tennessee into the spotlight for the wrong reasons and Mississippi State could certainly be dangerous when Dee Bost and Renardo Sidney return nine games into the campaign. The Commodores, coming off a 24-9 season and a #4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, didn’t receive the same publicity as their SEC brethren. But that’s just how Kevin Stallings, one of the best X’s and O’s coaches in the business, prefers it. The loss of senior point guard Jermaine Beal (and the premature departure of A.J. Ogilvy inside) was a big reason why many pegged Vanderbilt to take a step back from a season ago, even with returnees John Jenkins and Jeffrey Taylor oozing with talent and potential. The question was how junior point guard Brad Tinsley would step in for the grizzled veteran Beal and run the Commodores offense with the same aplomb, finding Jenkins off curls and screens for open threes or big man Festus Ezeli in scoring position on the block. Tinsley showed he’s up for the task in a 41-point romp of Presbyterian at Memorial Gymnasium on Friday, notching Vandy’s first triple-double in school history with 11 points and a career high 10 assists and 10 rebounds (not too shabby for a 6’3 guard). Tinsley also collected three steals and only turned the ball over twice. If Tinsley provides playmaking and stability at the point, Taylor lives up to his future lottery pick billing as an impact wing, Jenkins continues his proficiency from deep and Ezeli gives Vandy a presence inside, the Commodores will win 24 games again.
2. Two wins on Friday night may fly under the radar a bit, but are absolutely worth highlighting. The first is Minnesota’s convincing home victory over Wofford. I expected the Terriers to give Tubby Smith’s squad all kinds of trouble and possibly even win this game straight up. Wofford returns four starters, including potential SoCon POY Noah Dahlman, from a stout defensive team that gave Wisconsin a scare in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Heck, I even pegged them as my Cinderella last week. Throw in yet another Minnesota suspension on Thursday (this time off-guard Devoe Joseph) and this had all the makings of a super competitive test for the Gophers. Instead, Minnesota controlled the game throughout, leading by ten at half and winning 69-55 behind 20/13 from Ralph Sampson and 14/10 in Trevor Mbakwe’s debut in maroon and gold. The Gopher bigs also contained Dahlman to 15 points and the Wofford guards couldn’t find their stroke from deep. Don’t be surprised if this is an RPI top-100 win for Minnesota by season’s end. A second win that stood out is West Virginia’s romp of Oakland, another squad favored to win their conference behind potential first round pick Keith Benson. Benson did his thing with 22/15 but received no help as the Mountaineers utilized a balanced attack- Joe Mazzulla, Dalton Pepper, John Flowers, Deniz Kilicli, Casey Mitchell and Darryl Bryant all scored in double figures- to romp the Golden Grizzlies 95-71. Without an all-Big East perimeter threat like Da’Sean Butler at their disposal, this type of team effort is imperative if the Mountaineers want to vault themselves into the upper echelon of the Big East this season.
3. It’s painfully obvious that Georgetown is going to live and die with their backcourt this season. Their frontcourt pieces- Julian Vaughn, Nate Lubick, Jerelle Benimon and Henry Sims– are unspectacular, role players that can crash the boards, provide versatility and dish from the top of the key in the Georgetown halfcourt offense, but simply cannot be relied upon as consistent scoring threats. The Hoyas opener at reigning CAA champion and preseason favorite Old Dominion exposed this weakness inside. The Monarchs out-rebounded Georgetown by 11, blocked nine more shots and the Hoya forwards only scored eight of the team’s 62 points. Yet Georgetown eked out an enormous road victory on the heels of their experienced and savvy backcourt trio of Chris Wright, Austin Freeman and Jason Clark. The threesome led Georgetown back from a second-half deficit with clutch threes and free throws down the stretch, including one from Wright on a crosscourt Hollis Thompson feed where the 6’1 senior wasn’t even able to even land as the shot clocked expired. Given the Monarchs defensive prowess and the return of four starters from a team that advanced to the second round of the NCAA Tournament, this is in all likelihood a top-50 RPI win for Georgetown in the first week of the campaign. If more of those marquee wins are to come, Wright, Freeman and Clark will be the reasons.
It took 345 hours but we just wrapped up our second annual Tweeting the Preview series, and unsurprisingly, Duke is the choice for everyone here at RTC to repeat as national champions. In the interest of transparency, we’ll be publishing our Top 25 each Monday with the editors’ ballots attached so that if you’re wondering how on earth your favorite team could be ranked so low, you’ll know exactly who is responsible. This will also be the official RTC ballot that we submit each week to the Blogpoll folks, assuming someone is running that again this year. We’ll also try to note any trends and interesting items each week to give the poll a little more context, and that will be located below the poll and after the jump each week. To see how we did last year, check out our 2009-10 preseason poll — some good (Butler, WVU); some not (UNC, Texas).
QnD Analysis.
Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.
With the season tipping off on Monday, there’s a few questions rolling around the minds of college basketball fans regarding the upcoming season. Let’s tackle the ten most pressing questions, from Duke’s expected dominance to a battle at the top of the Big East and one special freshman:
1. What’s Purdue’s season outlook without Robbie Hummel?
Purdue fans don’t need to read another rehash of Hummel tearing his ACL for the second time in eight months, so we’ll skip the gory details. With that setback in the past, the question now becomes: is Purdue still a legitimate contender to cut down the nets in Houston? The short answer is probably not. Hummel was the most important piece to the Boilermakers’ puzzle — a gritty, tough-minded, versatile scoring threat and can rebound and defend. The haunting memory of Purdue’s 11-point first half performance against Minnesota in the absence of Hummel is still fresh in some minds. The hoppers off the Boilermakers bandwagon have been countless, the injury considered so devastating that ESPN’s Andy Katz dropped Purdue from #2 to #23 in his Preseason Top 25.
Although the impact of Hummel’s injury shouldn’t be diminished, it is in no way a crushing blow to Purdue’s entire season and absolutely does not deserve a 21-spot decline in the preseason polls. Take a step back and remember that Matt Painter still has two all-Big Ten players on his roster even in a grueling year for the league- preseason All-American center JaJuan Johnson and scoring guard E’Twaun Moore. Those are building blocks the majority of major conference coaches would bend over backwards to have at their disposal. Point guard Lewis Jackson is finally 100% and ready to build on an encouraging freshman season before his foot injury. Kelsey Barlow is a multi-positional threat while secondary players D.J. Byrd and Ryne Smith have practiced for weeks knowing they’ll be thrust into a larger role. Most of all, it’s Matt Painter’s insistence on defending aggressively in the halfcourt keeps Purdue in any contest no matter the talent differential.
This isn’t Purdue unexpectedly thrown into limbo when Hummel tore his ACL last February. The Boilermakers enter the season knowing who must step up to prove the doubters wrong. Even in an unforgiving Big Ten, I expect Purdue to be a mainstay in the top 15 all season long.
2. Who is this year’s first round Cinderella?
If you picked Ohio over Georgetown in last year’s NCAA Tournament, congratulations. That’s a pick you brag about to your buddies for years. The majority of the tournament pool participators did not have such a keen eye for upsets, though. Searching for this year’s preseason candidate to shock the hoops world and knock off a major conference powerhouse as a #13 or #14 seed? Look no further than the Southern Conference and the Wofford Terriers.
Start with the fact they took Wisconsin down to the wire last March in their first NCAA Tournament appearance. Sure, the Badgers play a style that can produce closer outcomes against weaker opposition, but degrading that accomplishment is unfair. It’s the building block for what could be a special 2010-11 campaign with Noah Dahlman, Tim Johnson, Cameron Rundles and Jamar Diggs all back in the fold. Don’t overlook the urgency factor with ten seniors and juniors knowing this is the Terriers last chance to secure a NCAA Tournament victory.
Ranking #41 in the nation in defensive efficiency a season ago, head coach Mike Young has instilled a lockdown mentality on that end of the floor. Dahlman returning is also a huge deal. The best player in the SoCon, Dahlman is a double-double threat and extremely efficient scoring the basketball. He’ll be a handful for Wofford’s first round opponent and one of those names that won’t soon be forgotten around the college hoops landscape. Young challenged his team with a brutal schedule with road games at Minnesota, Clemson, Xavier, South Carolina and VCU in the non-conference, so we’ll see fairly quickly whether the Terriers can challenge stiff opposition this season.
3. How many games will Duke lose this season?
Couple Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith’s decisions to return for their senior years with a down year in talent around the ACC and the potential is there for a remarkable season in Durham. Although the ultimate goal will only be reached in March, the Blue Devils could run off a season similar to what Kansas and Kentucky did in 2009-10. The backcourt is the best in the nation with Smith, Kyrie Irving, Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins all expected to see minutes (not to mention Singler’s guard-like skills), a group that should allow Coach K to run, run, run, run and run some more. Prepare yourself to see Duke total 100+ points on more than a few occasions this season.
Just how good can Duke really be? Do they have a chance to go undefeated? With a frontcourt that lost key cogs Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas, it’s extremely unlikely. If one of the Plumlee brothers falls into foul trouble and Duke has to play the inexperienced Ryan Kelly or freshman Josh Hairston too many minutes, a forward-oriented squad may knock them off. I have two games circled as losses for Duke: at NC State and at Virginia Tech. If the Wolfpack could pull the upset last year with a cellar-dwelling team, they have a fighter’s chance to beat Duke again with Lorenzo Brown, Tracy Smith, Ryan Harrow and C.J. Leslie. The contest in Blacksburg should produce a raucous environment with the Hokies granted a golden chance for a signature win that has evaded Seth Greenberg the last couple seasons.
Other possibilities include the CBE Classic when Duke runs into Kansas State or Gonzaga in the final. Of course, the Blue Devils could fall to North Carolina in Chapel Hill on the season’s last Saturday, but I expect Duke to squeak by with a memorable win. It was immediately a possibility when Singler opted to return for one last hurrah that Duke would lose only two or three games all year long. Barring injury, I predict they’ll do just that.
4. Could the Pac-10 actually be worse?
Zach Hayes is an RTC editor, contributor and bracketologist.
The AP has weighed in with their preseason All-American teams. Now it’s our turn at Rush the Court to identify the 15 players on three top teams that will dominate the headlines in college basketball in 2010-11. From seasoned seniors to impact freshmen, our teams are littered with names prepared to fill up the box scores, carry their teams to unforeseen heights and enter the annals of the sport’s history. Through a simple voting process among the powers-that-be here at RTC, these are the 15 players we identified as the class of college hoops this upcoming season:
First Team
G- Jacob Pullen, Kansas State, Sr. (19.3 PPG, 3.4 APG, 1.8 SPG, 42% FG, 82% FT, 40% 3pt) – Behind pinpoint shooting and a beard that took on cult status by the end of his breakout junior season, Pullen established himself as one of the best off-guards in the country scoring the basketball. With former backcourt mate Denis Clemente no longer in Manhattan, Pullen must pull double duty, continuing his scoring prowess while also balancing the responsibility of distributing to an array of talented big men. Pullen is a candidate to lead the Big 12 in scoring and propel his Wildcats to a Final Four berth.
G- Jimmer Fredette, BYU, Sr. (22.1 PPG, 4.7 APG, 3.1 RPG, 46% FG, 89% FT, 44% 3pt) – One of the more crafty scorers in college basketball, Fredette operates with such smoothness and efficiency, it’s almost impossible to prevent him from finding a spot on the floor to put points on the board. Fredette is one of the highest-usage players in the nation, ranking at the top in assist rate, fouls drawn per 40 minutes, offensive rating and percentage of shots taken. He’s the early favorite to lead the nation in scoring during a senior season that the Cougars hope takes them into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
F- Kyle Singler, Duke, Sr. (17.7 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.4 APG, 42% FG, 80% FT, 40% 3pt) – The AP and RTC both agreed on this point — Kyle Singler is the preseason national player of the year. Fresh off of garnering MOP of the Final Four and leading Duke to their first title since 2001, Singler passed on a near-certain first round selection to experience all the goodness of a senior season on a #1-ranked team. Singler is a versatile and skilled forward that can operate around the perimeter or get dirty inside. He’s the MVP of the best team in the country.
F- Harrison Barnes, North Carolina, Fr. (ranked #1 overall in 2010 ESPNU100) – How good can Harrison Barnes be? Here’s two clues: 1) he is the first freshman EVER to earn AP All-American status in the preseason; and 2) he’s projected by nearly every NBA Draft prognosticator to be chosen #1 overall in June 2011. Barnes could be the best newcomer to college hoops since Kevin Durant. He excels in the mid-range, rebounds, possesses an otherworldly basketball IQ for an 18-year old and makes his teammates better. Simply, he’s the savior for Carolina.
F- JaJuan Johnson, Purdue, Sr. (15.5 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 2.1 BPG, 51% FG, 72% FT) – Johnson isn’t necessarily a dominating big man. In fact, he’s battled some inconsistencies during his time at Purdue. Still, he earned this spot based on what most project as a ceiling that keeps getting higher. He displayed that skill in the NCAA Tournament and is a defensive presence that can also score from the mid-range or paint. Johnson should pile up the double-doubles for a Purdue squad that needs him to be a constant force in 2010-11.
Second Team
Zach Hayes is an RTC editor, contributor and bracketologist.
College basketball fans: get your calendars out. Over the next few Wednesdays until opening night arrives on November 8, we’ll unveil a portion of our 68 Can’t-Miss Games of 2010-11, a countdown of the matchups that you need to make sure to see this season. From the early season headliners to the best rivalries conference play has to offer, this list has you covered with the game, date, time (ET), network and a brief synopsis of what to expect. Remember, folks: this list doesn’t even include another eight to ten must-see early-season tournament games, for which we’ll have a separate post later this month. Without further ado, here is the fourth installment of the list — set your Tivos/DVRs now.
To see the #14-68 games on this list, click here.
#13. January 18 – Michigan State at Illinois, 7 pm (ESPN) – The Illini are one of the more intriguing teams in the preseason. It’s a big leap of faith to project a team to bolt from NIT to the top 15 without a Harrison Barnes-type impact freshman, but many believe Illinois has the tools to accomplish such a feat, even while playing in the best conference in college basketball this season. With Demetri McCamey back at the point, the improving D.J. Richardson manning the other backcourt spot, incoming McDonalds All-American wing Jereme Richmond and the twin towers of Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale in the post, it’s evident that Bruce Weber has one of the most complete starting fives in the nation. His team knocked off Michigan State last year at Assembly Hall; of course, that victory came without Kalin Lucas on the floor. He should be back to 100% when the rematch occurs in mid-January, an early crucial conference clash in the Big Ten.
#12. February 27 – Purdue at Michigan State, 2 pm (CBS) – Full disclosure: This game was #1 on the list prior to Robbie Hummel’s ACL tear. A late February game possibly for the Big Ten title between two of the top three teams in the preseason was an easy call to head the must-see games of 2010-11. Unfortunately, when Hummel’s knee buckled on the first day of practice, Purdue slid from potential top dog in a loaded conference to third fiddle behind the Michigan State and Ohio State. Even if it’s not the best game of the entire season, the importance cannot be overstated. Counting Purdue completely out of the Big Ten race would be foolish, especially considering preseason First Team All-American JaJuan Johnson is still manning the middle and head coach Matt Painter always receives maximum effort from his troops. Enhancing this matchup even further is the revenge factor that Kalin Lucas, Durrell Summers and the rest of the Spartans should feel after E’Twaun Moore put on his Superman cape last year at the Breslin Center.
#11. March 6 – Kentucky at Tennessee, 12 pm (CBS) – The last day of the regular season produces one of the top rivalries in the sport: Kentucky vs. Tennessee amidst the shouts of Rocky Top at Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville. Question marks surround the Vols program from their head coach to their post play and whether Scotty Hopson can perform at an all-SEC level on a consistent basis. Much like victories over #1 Kansas (and eventual #1 Kentucky) distracted the Tennessee faithful from the Tyler Smith situation a season ago, a successful year on the court will take the spotlight away from Pearl’s past indiscretions off the court. There’s no better way to endear yourself to those orange-clad faithful than downing Kentucky, especially on the final Sunday of the season and with a possible SEC championship on the line. Unless freshman Tobias Harris is an immediate star, Hopson is the entire key for the Vols this season. His periodic disappearing acts from the offense cannot be tolerated.
#10. February 20 – Ohio State at Purdue, 1 pm (CBS) – This Big Ten grinder could come down to which post stud has the superior game. Purdue’s JaJuan Johnson will need to take on an even bigger load this season with the absence of Hummel. The preseason All-America is a lanky, talented shot-blocker extraordinaire that runs the floor and can hit the mid-range jumper for Matt Painter. This is a crucial year for Johnson, not only in taking on more of a leadership role in West Lafayette, but also vaulting his draft stock into the first round. He’ll be matched up against the Buckeyes’ own stud in the paint, heralded freshman Jared Sullinger. The Columbus native has game beyond his years and can play with the likes of Johnson, Jon Leuer, Rodney Williams, Mike Tisdale and other forwards/centers in the rugged Big Ten. Mark it down: whoever has a better all-around game between Johnson and Sullinger will give their team the edge in what promises to be a physical battle.
Zach Hayes is an RTC editor, contributor and bracketologist.
Bids per conference (auto bid listed first):
Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.
With college basketball approaching in a matter of days, fans across the nation can look forward to one of the major draws of the sport: pre-conference tournaments. Aside from catering to hungry fans that want to see highly ranked teams do battle even in the earliest stages of the season, these tournaments are golden opportunities for coaches to judge and evaluate where their teams stands against elite competition. It presents our first chance to surmise that, say, Kentucky’s fabulous freshmen may not quite stack up to last year’s history-making class, that Duke may miss Brian Zoubek and Jon Scheyer more than originally expected or that Jacob Pullen can adequately handle point guard duties for Kansas State. The teams we label in early November as the prime contenders to cut down the nets five months later in Houston are revealed for the first time in tournament settings that allow programs to build early season momentum, confidence and quality wins that stand out come Selection Sunday. No other sport provides such drama in tournament settings at such an early point in the season.
As usual, a handful of headlining programs have elected to participate in these tournaments. Duke will encounter their first true tests in the CBE Classic, Pitt eyes a difficult field in the 2K Sports Classic and North Carolina heads out to Puerto Rico in a wide open field. All of these fields could provide intense drama and classic clashes normally reserved for the first days of spring. Here’s a preview of the best tournaments college basketball has to offer in pre-conference play and the main storylines heading into each event. Mark your calendars now.
2K Sports Classic (Opening Rounds: November 8-10, Semifinals: November 19, Finals: November 20)
The Field: Ever since the Gardner-Webb shocker upended plans for Kentucky and their rabid fans to travel to Madison Square Garden, this has been an event where the four regional hosts automatically advance to NYC. This year’s participants are Pittsburgh, Illinois, Texas and Maryland. The prohibitive favorite has to be preseason Big East topper Pittsburgh and their four starters returning from an overachieving squad that garnered a #3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Ashton Gibbs is a game-changing scoring guard and the athletic Gilbert Brown is an x-factor on the wing for Jamie Dixon. Illinois has expectations of reaching the second weekend in March for the first time since the national championship defeat in 2005, while Texas hopes that addition by subtraction helps avenge last season’s collapse from #1 team in the nation to first round victim. Maryland will likely still be figuring out a rotation at this stage after their three leading scorers were all lost to graduation. One player that may vault into stardom is Terps big man Jordan Williams, who nearly averaged a double-double as a freshman in the ACC.
The Sleeper: It’s difficult to fathom that losing Damion James and Dexter Pittman can possibly make a team better, but one has to prescribe to the notion that more defined roles and a clear-cut rotation should translate into improved chemistry for Texas following last season’s bitter disappointment. Rick Barnes still has tremendous talent up and down his roster including the infusion of two McDonalds All-American recruits in point guard Cory Joseph and power forward Tristan Thompson. If he utilizes more discretion on when to pull the trigger, it wouldn’t shock us if Jordan Hamilton had a breakout campaign. This also provides an early chance for Florida transfer Jai Lucas to shine on a big stage. Remember, Lucas is just two seasons removed from averaging 8.5 PPG and shooting 44% from deep as a freshman.
The Pick: While Texas has a strong chance of advancing, we’re even more bullish on Illinois in the preseason. Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale bring height and scoring inside, Demetri McCamey is an assist machine at the point and freshman Jereme Richmond is the perfect answer on the wing for Bruce Weber. If they were to face Pitt in the final, McCamey out-muscles Ashton Gibbs on the perimeter, Richmond’s length contains Gilbert Brown on the wing and Tisdale’s versatility pushes Pitt big man Gary McGhee from his comfort zone in the paint. With the victory, the buzz around Illinois’ chances in the ultra-competitive Big Ten will only escalate.
CBE Classic (Opening Rounds: November 12-18, Semifinals: November 22, Finals: November 23)
The Field: While Duke, Marquette, Kansas State and Gonzaga will play two warm-up games on their home floor, all four advance to Kansas City for a star-studded doubleheader (controversy could certainly unfold should San Diego State, the preseason MWC favorite and a top-25 caliber squad in some experts’ minds, upset Gonzaga and still be forced to play in Oxford, Ohio rather than KC). As the near-consensus #1 team heading into the season’s tip-off, Duke is the favorite and receives the easier semifinal matchup in Marquette. The Golden Eagles enter the season as a likely second tier Big East team along with West Virginia, Seton Hall, Notre Dame and possibly Connecticut or Louisville. Look for the Kansas State–Gonzaga matchup to be one of the best games of the entire month. The Wildcats boast one of the best players in the nation in Jacob Pullen and a bruising, deep frontline, while Mark Few has the Zags loaded with talent, notably German import Elias Harris and sharpshooting swingman Steven Gray.
The Sleeper: Gonzaga has a golden opportunity in this tournament to do some major damage, boost their portfolio with two quality wins and become the storyline of the month of November. Defeating two top-five teams is a daunting task, but all Gonzaga has to do is escape Kansas State and at least remain competitive with Duke to make a positive impression nationally. Last year, it would have been the hard-nosed Matt Bouldin to contain Pullen around the perimeter. With Few’s ability to match his frontcourt to at least a draw with the Kansas State paint patrollers, how defensive-minded junior guard Demetri Goodson handles the challenging assignment of slowing down Pullen could ultimately determine Gonzaga’s success in KC.
The Pick: We’ve seen the role of contrarian playing by some prognosticators pegging Michigan State at #1 rather than Duke, but I’ll abstain. Duke will win this tournament, although Frank Martin’s bunch should be an awfully difficult draw in the final with their physicality and the scoring prowess of Pullen. The Blue Devils’ remarkable perimeter depth has the tools to wear down either opponent. Expect both Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins to drain some key treys that help keep the Blue Devils atop the rankings.