We’d originally hoped to track this better than we have throughout the pre-conference slate, but sometimes life gets in the way. A little over a month ago, we noted that the ACC and Pac-10 were leading the early charge with several marquee wins over the other BCS conferences. How has that changed in the interim?

Data Source: www.basketballstate.com

Thoughts:

• The Pac-10 and ACC continue to lead the way, showing 1-2 in overall winning pct., with the ACC earning a commanding record against other BCS conferences (28-14), while every other league has struggled to reach .500. Most impressively, the ACC has a winning record against every other league but the Pac-10 so far this season (1-1). The Pac-10 has only lost eight games against mid- and low-major teams thus far. This comports with the RPI and Sagarin computer rankings, which has these two leagues in the top three in both measurements.
• Overall, the SEC has proven to be a joke thus far. Sure, the league can beat the low-majors (it certainly plays enough of them), but a 13-20 record against the other BCS conferences shows that this league just isn’t very good this year. It currently holds only one winning record against a BCS opponent – 5-4 versus the Big East.
• The other three leagues – Big 10, Big 12, Big East – all have shown to be various grades of average. The Big 12 has the advantage over the other two at this point, with its 21-20 record against the other leagues, but it tends to lose more often to mid-majors than the others.
• Quick rankings based on solely this measure: 1) ACC (h2h record is impressive); 2) Pac-10 (only loses to BCS teams); 3) Big 12 (generally good across the board); 4) Big East (more teams = more bad teams to bring it down); 5) Big 10 (sigh… 3-10 v. the ACC, again); 6) SEC (may not be better than the MVC or A10 this year).

Marquee Win to date –

• ACC – Duke 77, Marquette 73.
• Big East – Pittsburgh 65, Duke 64.
• Big 10 – Michigan St. 78, Texas 72.
  
• Big 12 – Texas 63, UCLA 61.
  
• Pac-10 – UCLA 68, Michigan St. 63.
  
• SEC – Ole Miss 85, Clemson 82.
  

Ugliest Loss to date –

• ACC – American 67, Maryland 59.
  
• Big East – Dayton 70, Louisville 65.
  
• Big 10 – Wofford 69, Purdue 66.
• Big 12 – Stephen F. Austin 66, Oklahoma 62.
• Pac-10 – Mercer 96, USC 81.
• SEC – Gardner-Webb 84, Kentucky 68

What a week. So we’re a little late on this week’s blogpoll, among several other things, but we’re slowly getting caught up and feel that this week’s poll is the first one that accurately captures how teams are playing several weeks into the season. We’ve had a chance to watch most of the teams in the poll ourselves, and our illustrious blogging brethren have ostensibly done likewise. So here’s Week 3 (blogger ballots located here)…

Note: blogpoll does not include 11/27-28 games.

Justifying Our Ballot. We still rank UCLA #1 and UNC #2 ahead of overall #1 Memphis simply based on the fact that we believe UCLA and UNC have beaten better teams than Memphis thus far. Memphis looked solid in CvC wins versus Oklahoma and UConn, but those teams are probably mid-conference finishers this year. UCLA has a marquee win (w/o Darren Collison) against #13 Michigan St., a team that is better than we thought; and UNC has solid wins over likely NCAA teams Davidson, Old Dominion and #20 BYU (w/o Ty Lawson). Memphis will have an opportunity this weekend to improve its standing in our eyes with a win vs. #25 USC. Like everyone else, we raised #9 Texas A&M and #6 Duke on the strength of their wins in the PNIT and Maui, respectively, and #8 Texas got a nod into the top ten by virtue of its destruction of #12 Tennessee. In the lower reaches of the top 25, we still refuse to vote for #18 Clemson despite their win at Mississippi St. We’ve been down this road before with them, and if the Tigers are 14-0 going into the game vs. UNC on January 6, then we’ll consider it. We also left BYU, Miami (FL), and USC off of our ballot, figuring that Stanford, Ohio St., Wisconsin and Baylor had put together better resumes to this point. After the ACC/Big 10 meetings the last two nights, we’re really questioning our sanity on those two midwestern teams above.

Uncertainty. We’re still seeing blogger indecisiveness when it comes to Indiana and Michigan St., but some new additions at the low range of the top 25 populate our list this week. Here are the top five most uncertain teams (remember, a high std dev means greater variation in blogger rankings of that team):

• Indiana (std dev = 6.43; range = 10 to nr)
• Pittsburgh (6.39; 8 to nr)
• Clemson (5.74; 11 to nr)
• BYU (5.44; 13 to nr)
• Michigan St. (4.83; 8 to 21)

The top seven teams in the blogpoll are also the top seven lowest standard deviation this week.

Conference Call.

• Big East – 5
• ACC & Pac-10 – 4
• Big 12 – 3
• Big 10 – 2
• Atlantic 10 , CUSA, Horizon, MVC, Mtn West, SEC, WCC – 1

Wow, the SEC is really struggling right now, with only one team ranked (Tennessee) and that squad getting its doors blown off by Texas last week. The ACC only has four ranked teams, but leads all conferences with 6 of the 31 remaining unbeaten teams in D1. Impressive that half of that league is still flawless. Other BCS unbeatens: (Big East & Big 12 – 4 each; Pac-10 – 3; SEC – 1; Big 10 – 0).

The blogpoll blogpool continues to grow, as we’re now up to 13 contributors, with two more expected to begin next week. Memphis remains #1, but UCLA is rising..

Note: blogpoll does not include Tues. 11/20 games.

Justifying Our Ballot. This week we didn’t have much movement in our top ten. We switched UNC and Memphis based on UNC’s struggle with Davidson. We also jumped Louisville (#9 to #6) and Duke (#13 to #11) up a few spots based on the way they’re both playing right now. We dropped Stanford down from #12 to #24 based on their loss at Siena, and VCU was knocked completely out due to its two losses in Puerto Rico. Arizona and Arkansas were also left out, while Pitt, K-State and Villanova were added to our ballot this week.

Two Left Out. The two teams we voted for that were left out of the blogpoll this week were Florida (#23) and Stanford (#24). The Gators are 5-0 and have been mowing down opponents lately, but they lack a marquee win and they haven’t left their home court yet, so we understand that omission. Stanford’s loss at Siena was a bad loss, but they had several solid wins (vs. UCSB, @ Northwestern) prior to that, so we weren’t completely ready to drop them altogether. There was a bit of a clamor amongst the bloggers to include Miami (FL) this week, as the Hurricanes performed well in defeating VCU and Providence in the Puerto Rico Tipoff. We also considered Baylor after its impressive wins over Wichita St., Notre Dame and Winthrop in the Paradise Jam last week. We’re definitely going to be keeping an eye on the Bears.

Tightening Up. The bloggers are still unsure where to rank the two Big Ten teams, Indiana and Michigan St. Amazingly, there is still one blogger who refuses to rank the Hoosiers at all, but we won’t name names. Here are the top five most uncertain teams (remember, a high std dev means greater variation in blogger rankings of that team):

• Indiana (std dev = 5.41; range = 4 to nr)
• Michigan St. (5.09; 9 to nr)
• Kansas St. (4.37; 11 to nr)
• Syracuse (4.27; 16 to nr)
• Villanova (4.12; 12 to nr)

Conversely, the top seven teams in the blogpoll are extremely well-supported by the bloggers. Only two other ballots than ours (with Indiana at #4) supported a team other than the Memphis/UCLA/UNC/Kansas/GTown/UL/Tenn septoika. One ballot had Wazzu at #7 and another ballot had Indiana at #6. Now that’s conformity!

Conference Call.

• Big East – 6
• ACC & Big 12 – 4
• Pac-10 – 3
• Big 10 – 2
• CUSA, Horizon, MVC, SEC, SoCon, WCC – 1

Today marks two weeks from the start of the season, so we thought it would be an appropriate time to take a look at how the BCS conferences have done thus far against each other as well as the mids and lows. There’s not a lot of data available yet, but already we’re starting to see a little separation amongst the top conferences. It’ll be interesting to track this throughout the preconference schedule to see if it holds up. With the Maui, NIT and various conference challenges kicking off soon, this could change in a hurry.

Data Source: www.basketballstate.com

Thoughts:

• So far, and we realize this is super early, the ACC and Pac-10 have led the way, going 10-2 (ACC) and 9-2 (Pac-10) against BCS and mid-major opponents. The other four are roughly .500 (Big East – 9-7; Big 10 – 3-3; Big 12 – 5-4; SEC – 4-4).
• The Big 10 has the best early record at 20-3 (.870), but is only 1-3 against other BCS schools.
• The SEC needs to protect home court better – two of its three losses against other BCS opponents (and three of the overall five) were at home.

Marquee Wins (best overall win in bold) –

• ACC – Virginia 75, Arizona 72; Clemson 84, Mississippi St. 82 (both on the road)
• Big East – Providence 67, Arkansas 51
• Big 10 -none
• Big 12 – none
• Pac-10 – none
• SEC – Arkansas 70, VCU 60

Ugly Losses (worst overall loss in bold) –

• ACC – UNC-Greensboro 83, Ga Tech 74; Cleveland St. 69, Florida St. 66
• Big East – Buffalo 76, S. Florida 69; Bowling Green 69, Cincinnati 67
• Big 10 – Georgetown 74, Michigan 52 (the margin, not the result)
• Big 12 – Sam Houston St. 56, Texas Tech 54; N. Texas 82, Oklahoma St. 73
• Pac-10 – Mercer 96, USC 81; Siena 79, Stanford 67
• SEC – Gardner-Webb 84, Kentucky 68; Tulane 77, Auburn 62

… since they can’t seem to handle D2 teams at home.

Another UF is Coming For You, Buckeyes!!!

First Michigan St. lost to Grand Valley St. on Saturday. Tonight Ohio St. went down 70-68 at the hands of Findlay (OH). To be fair, Findlay is the #5 ranked team in the D2 preseason poll, and they were 29-2 last year. But still… Findlay? Guard Marcus Parker led the way for the Oilers with 18 pts, and said that MSU’s loss inspired his team.

“I saw Grand Valley beat a Big Ten team (Michigan State),” Parker said, “and I felt we could come down here and do the same thing.”

He was right. From the OSU side of things, the few that are paying attention to hoops this time of year are stressing that this was from a lack of effort, not a lack of talent. From the Ohio St. blog Eleven Warriors:

Thad Matta’s squad simply didn’t match Findlay’s intensity, especially at the defensive end of the floor losing the rebounding battle 34-27 (13 offensive) while surrendering 10 threes. The lack of passion combined with another poor night at the stripe (11/17 64%) was more than enough to hand OSU their most embarassing defeat in the Thad Matta Era.

The good news is that freshman center Kosta Koufos led a second-half comeback with 20/7, but the other forward Othello Hunter laid a prodigious egg (0/1). Jamar Butler had a nice game with 22/3 asst, but the rest of the Buckeyes contributed very little. Looking at their lineup, we’re just not sure where their offense is going to come from this year outside of Butler and Koufos. Please don’t say Terwilliger.

To crib from Doug Gottlieb tonight, you think it might be time to consider replacing the ACC with the Great Lakes Conference in the ACC-B10 Challenge? You know, a league with some teams the Big 10 could bea… uh, nevermind.

We’re counting down – just over one week until the first tipoffs…

• Didn’t Coach K wait a couple of years after winning B2B titles before using the back excuse? Whatsup Billy D, we realize your team is young, but come on!
• Georgia’s Dennis Felton is officially screwed – he just kicked leading scorer Takais Brown off the team. AOL Fanhouse wonders why UGa players are being charged $10 cashmoney for missing classes – we wonder the same thing.
• One week later, Mizzou’s Darryl Butterfield is at it again.
• Bill Self is in tight with half of the top 15 in the class of 09… will they beat Bucknell in 2011?
• More brilliance from BBall Prospectus – how similar is one player to another?
• Faustian bargains – why you should never marry a rival fan.
• Plissken takes a sensible look at why student-athletes shouldn’t be paid for their services.
• Will Kentucky build a new Rupp Arena?
• Duke and Carolina have special water needs.
• Speaking of special needs, Basketball Times chose Duke as the top program of the last decade.
• We don’t even know what to make of this ridiculous thing.
• Preseason Materials by Conference –
  • ACC –
    • Is the ACC going to have another “down” year?
    • Could be a tough year ahead for Va Tech.
    • The Grey Lady breaks down the league.
    • Luke Winn spends a day at NC State.
  • Big East –
    • Georgetown and Louisville are the co-favorites – the Fanhouse and Jeff Goodman have the scoop.
    • Turns out that it’s actually better when Syracuse is unranked to start the season.
    • Pitt freshman Darnell Dodson leaves school.
  • Big 10 –
    • Sometimes I dream… that he was me… like Mike… if I could be like Mike…
    • Goodman reports that Matt Painter at Purdue is probably going to start three freshmen.
    • Seth Davis is high on Michigan St.
    • Ohio St. knows how to make money with sports.
  • SEC –
    • We can’t help but root for Tyler Smith at Tennessee after reading this story.
    • Notes from SEC Media Days.
    • Billy Gillispie’s already dealing with a lot of injuries in his first month at UK.
    • One of those injuries is not Patrick Patterson’s heart.
    • SEC:TGTBTD on Takais Brown’s dismissal and their pick for COY.
  • Others –
    • The long road back for Josh Heytvelt.
    • Xavier is the runaway favorite in the A10.
    • Nevada’s Mark Fox deals with losing two NBA players from his roster.
    • Luke Winn checks in on Mark Turgeon at Texas A&M.
    • Andy Glockner chronicles the rise of Air Force.
    • Rivals is working through the top 25 storylines of the season.
    • We Suck at Sports notes some season preview tidbits.
    • Gary Parrish argues with his readers over his preseason picks.

Per ESPN today…

Initial reactions:

• UNC is #1, yet UCLA garnered more first-place votes (12-10).
• 9 of the top 10 match the online Blogpoll – the one difference is that coaches like Indiana more than Marquette. Fwiw, so do we. (come on blogpollers! We should represent the non-MSM contrarian voice!)
• Did the coaches go with the “name” programs over Calipari’s squad at #1? Interesting that the bloggers voted Memphis a solid #1 while UNC/UCLA were left behind.
• Only one coach agreed with us that Kansas is preseason #1 (Bill Self?), although we aren’t predicting KU to win it all.
• Buy: Oregon (mighty mite Tajuan Porter!), Gonzaga (magic mushroomania), Texas (hey mr. DJ put that record on…), S. Illinois (you sexy mother Falker!), Davidson (spicy Curry), VCU (Eric Maynor alone is worth more than five votes).
• Sell: Duke (anxiously awaiting the Brian Zoubek experiment), USC (Young+Pruitt > Mayo+Jefferson), NC State (folks, they were 5-11 in the ACC last year!!), Alabama (no Steele = no chance).
• Conference breakdown (top 25, all 54 teams receiving votes): Pac-10 (6, 8), Big East (5, 8), ACC (3, 6), Big 12 (3, 5), SEC (3, 6), Big 10 (2, 5), MVC (1, 2), CUSA (1, 1), WCC (1, 1), Colonial (0, 3), WAC (0, 3), A10 (0, 2), Mountain West (0, 2), Horizon (0, 1), Southern (0, 1).
• Word to the Colonial and WAC with three teams each receiving votes even though none are in the Top 25.
• Is there any value in this meaningless poll whatsoever? Some. Last year the top 6 (and 8 of the top 10) in the preseason coaches poll finished in the top 11 of the final poll (before the NCAA Tournament), and every team in the final top 11 had been ranked somewhere in the top 25 before the season started. Additionally, all four F4 teams were ranked in last year’s preseason top 8 (#1 Florida, #4 Ohio St., #5 UCLA, #8 Georgetown).
• Only six of the preseason top 25 last year didn’t make the NCAA Tournament (#7 LSU, #12 Alabama, #16 Washington, #18 Connecticut, #20 Syracuse, #23 Creighton), so that’s fair evidence that the coaches (at least last year) have a bit of a clue. Note we said only a bit.

Who will be this year’s Wooden Award Winner?

This afternoon the 2007-08 Wooden Award candidates were released to the public. The top 50 vote-getters (who gets to vote for this anyway – is the Wizard of Westwood sitting in his apt filling out ballots?) are listed below (organized by conference, then by team):

Quick ruminations:

• Conference Rundown: Pac-10 (10), Big East (8), ACC (7), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), Big 10 (2), Mid-Majors + Low Majors (12).
• We like the love thrown to the non-BCS leagues – nearly a quarter of the selections are from eleven other leagues.
• It’s no surprise the Pac-10 is held in such high esteem this coming season, while the Big 10 isn’t – look at the difference in good players returning.
• For some reason, the Wooden doesn’t consider freshmen in its preseason picks, even though it does at the end of the year (Kevin Durant was the recipient last year). If it did, you’d figure the Pac-10 would look even better, with OJ Mayo and Kevin Love added to the mix.
• Other than freshmen, who are some notable omissions around the country? First thought was Josh Heytvelt (Gonzaga), but maybe that has something to do with his propensity to ingest hallucinogens – can’t see the WoW signing off on that selection. We might have chosen Darrell Arthur over Mario Chalmers at Kansas, but maybe the Jayhawk fans would disagree with us. Raymar Morgan (Michigan St.), anyone? Edgar Sosa (Louisville)? What about Alex Harris down at UCSB?
• Some guys we’d take off the list – Tyrese Rice at BC has shown he can shoot a lot and turn the ball over a lot – what else? Choosing DeMarcus Nelson smacks of making sure someone from Duke is on the list. We’re also not sure about the selection of Texas Tech’s Martin Zeno to the list. None of this really matters, though, as the list will eventually whittle itself down based on actual performance.
• Anybody else have any thoughts?

An absolute ton of newsworthy stuff to catch up on from the weekend…

• 2008 #1 player Greg Monroe committed to Georgetown after his visit there this weekend.  It couldn’t have had anything to do with that now-ubiquitous Jerry Rice dance, could it?  “Hoops” Weiss has the definitive take on how Monroe will impact the Hoyas.  Above the Rim writes that Duke (who was hot-n-heavy for Monroe) isn’t used to losing out on these guys. 
• Making the Dance reports that after Georgetown (who obviously had the best MM weekend), Illinois (Bruce Weber can recruit after all?!?!), Indiana, Louisville and several others had good weekends. 
• Lots of Midnight Madness and practice coverage from the weekend…
  • Huggins taking over the reins at his alma mater.  (there’s an amusing wmv file floating around where Huggins is giving a speech to some WVU booster club – it’s longwinded and rambling, but the DerMarr Johnson payoff is funny) 
  • A general roundup of MM from Lexington to Lawrence.
  • Catching up with Tubby in Minnesota. 
  • Pat Forde takes in the scene at UK with Billy Gillispie.  Apparently Goodman did the same.   
  • Andy Katz checks in on the hype surrounding Memphis. 
  • Goodman also took a road trip to Saluki country to report on the best mid-major not named Gonzaga, while en route to seeing Pitino in Louisville. 
  • Wake’s first practice without Skip Prosser. 
  • Dave Odom tries to save his job with transfers at South Carolina.
  • Pitt has XXXL expectations for DeJuan Blair. 
  • The defending champs (2x) start the rebuilding process.
• Sad news that former Georgia star and current surgeon Alec Kessler died of a heart attack last weekend. 
• Injuries, suspensions and dismissals:
  • Gonzaga’s Josh Heytvelt was reinstated on Friday but will miss the first week of practice due to shroom farming foot pain.
  • Louisville’s Juan Palacios injured his ankle and may have to redshirt his senior season. 
  • Brandon Rush reports that he’s on target for his Dec. 1 return to Kansas.
  • Georgia suspended three players for not attending classes, including top two scorers Takais Brown (9 games) and Mike Mercer (15 games).  Seriously, fellas?  SEC Hoops:TGTBTD has the take on how this will affect the Bulldogs.
  • Northwestern’s best player Kevin Coble is taking a leave of absence to be with his sick mother. 
  • Ball St. coach Billy Taylor booted two more players off the team, making a total of six since he was hired in August. 
• More Preseason goodies:
  • Gary Parrish and Ben Howland converse about whether the Pac-10 will have the most first round picks ever this year.
  • Pitino bitches about the difficulty of the unbalanced league schedule Louisville is being forced to play. 
  • MMAS continues its comprehensive review with its non-BCS top 25. 
  • Seth Davis asks us 20 questions, then he answers them. 
  • Gary Parrish lists his start-of-practice top 26.  Memphis, eh?
  • The Fanhouse wonders if Memphis is even the best team in its own state.
  • Jeff Goodman takes a realistic look at Duke’s expectations for this season.
  • ESPN plans on showing a grand total of TWO Pac-10 games this year!  Up from zero last year. 
  • The Big 12 handed out its preseason awards – DJ Augustin is the projected POY. 
  • Shawn Siegel lists his top 25 Big 12 players and top 25 Big 10 players for 07-08. 

Yesterday the NCAA released its latest graduation rate figures for all D1 athletes who entered school in the classes of 1997-2000. Unlike the federally-mandated graduation rate, the GSR (Graduate Success Rate) is more realistic for athletes – it gives each player six years to complete his degree and it does not count transfer students against a school (reflecting the reality of athlete puddle-jumping for playing time in D1).

Here are the NCAA’s key findings:

The latest GSR figures show that 77 percent of student-athletes who began college from 1997-2000 graduated within six years. That four-year graduation rate is unchanged from last year’s data and up from 76 percent two years ago.

The Graduation Success Rate for men’s basketball rose from 55.8 percent in 1995 to 63.6 percent in 2000, a 7.8 percent increase. Football increased from 63.1 percent to 66.6 percent for teams competing in the Bowl Subdivision and from 62 percent to 64.7 percent for teams competing in the Championship Subdivision. Baseball increased from 65.3 percent to 67.3 percent.

Gary is Too Busy to Worry About Graduation Rates

Since the NCAA doesn’t provide a sortable database of team information (or at least we can’t find it), we decided to quickly throw together some tables showing how the BCS schools performed in this cohort. Gary Williams should be especially proud of himself. Seriously, Gary, the best you can do with those Juan Dixon/Lonny Baxter teams is zero?!? Not even ONE player???

Thoughts.

• At the high end, Florida St. at 100% makes us wonder if any of these stats are credible. Then again, Florida is also at 100%, and these numbers are around 2000, so maybe there was a hanging chad issue or something. We’re also amazed that Eddie Sutton’s band of merry criminals men led the Big 12.
• At the low end, Jim Calhoun at UConn, Lute Olson at Arizona, Tim Floyd/Larry Eustachy at Iowa St., Ron Jirsa/Jim Harrick at Georgia, and the seediest of all, Clem Haskins at Minnesota, join Gary Williams in the dregs of their respective conferences. What a list of slimy characters there.
• The Pac-10 is surprisingly low, given that Stanford, Cal, UCLA and USC are all great schools. Especially Stanford – how can Mike Montgomery justify graduating only 2/3 of his players? Guess he doesn’t have to at this point – or does he? And the SEC is surprisingly high, with Alabama, the Mississippi schools and South Carolina doing well.

We may have more thoughts on this later, but we’re heading for the airport at the moment, so it’ll have to wait.