Update (03.09):  Zach realized that Butler and VCU were missing, so after we fished him out of the lake, he sent us a revised version.  Apologies to all Bulldog and Ram fans. 

Zach Hayes is RTC’s  resident bracketologist.  He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.

Next Four In: New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan, UNLV
Last Four In: South Carolina, Providence, Penn State, Arizona
Last Four Out: San Diego State, Creighton, Maryland, Saint Mary’s
Next Four Out: Florida, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, Auburn
Also Considered: Davidson, George Mason, Rhode Island, Temple, Nebraska, Kentucky, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Tulsa, USC, Kansas St.

Bids per conference: Big Ten (8), Big East (8), ACC (6), Big 12 (6), Pac-10 (5), Mountain West (4), SEC (3), Atlantic 10 (2), Missouri Valley (2).

Automatic bids: Binghamton, Xavier, North Carolina, East Tennessee State, Kansas, Louisville, Weber State, Radford, Michigan State, Cal State Northridge, VCU, Memphis, Butler, Cornell, Siena, Bowling Green, Morgan State, Utah, Northern Iowa, Robert Morris, Morehead State, Washington, American, LSU, College of Charleston, Stephen F. Austin, Alabama State, North Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, Utah State.

Next bracket: Saturday morning, March 14.

Final bracket: Sunday afternoon, March 15.

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Midweek bracketology special for the loyal readers here at Rush the Court.

– Three Big East teams in the Final Four. Don’t think it can’t happen, folks.

– Kansas‘ loss to Texas Tech drops them from the highest #2 seed to a #3 seed. Duke climbs up the charts to the final #1 seed, edging out Oklahoma and Michigan State (can’t have three Big East #1 seeds, sorry Cardinals) with their 1 RPI, 4 SOS and 8 wins against the RPI top 50. I just can’t put Memphis on the top line beating up on a bad Conference USA with their mediocre non-conference performance. Oklahoma slips to a #2 seed for the first time in forever. Missouri moves up the #3 seed ranks with their big win over the Sooners.

– Some stunning losses last night: LSU losing at home to Vanderbilt drops them to the last #5 seed. Purdue losing to Northwestern actually didn’t move them at all due to Marquette and LSU losing and a superior overall resume to both Florida State and Xavier. Kentucky‘s unreal loss to Georgia knocks them totally out of the picture at this point, and Florida‘s loss to Mississippi State hurts badly.

– Creighton is an at-large team in this bracket with Northern Iowa capturing the regular season #1 seed in the Missouri Valley. Creighton is the last #10 seed and Northern Iowa the last #12 seed.

– Barely getting in this time around: Providence, Texas A&M, Creighton, UNLV, Arizona, Michigan and Penn State. All of those teams are still on the bubble big time.

Last Four In: Michigan, Arizona, Texas A&M, Penn State
Last Four Out: San Diego State, Maryland, Florida, New Mexico
Next Four Out: Kentucky, Saint Mary’s, Rhode Island, Virginia Tech
Also considered: Miami, Kansas State, Auburn, Tulsa, Washington State, Cincinnati, USC, Temple, Mississippi State, George Mason, Notre Dame

Bids per conference: Big East (8), Big Ten (8), ACC (6), Big 12 (6), Pac-10 (5), SEC (3), Mountain West (3), Missouri Valley (2), Atlantic-10 (2).

Automatic bids: Binghamton, Xavier, North Carolina, Jacksonville, Connecticut, Kansas, Weber State, Radford, Michigan State, Cal State Northridge, VCU, Memphis, Butler, Cornell, Siena, Bowling Green, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, Utah, Robert Morris, Tennessee-Martin, Washington, American, LSU, Davidson, Stephen F. Austin, Alabama State, North Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, Utah State.

Next bracket: Monday, March 9.

Two weeks until Selection Sunday and the bracket is really starting to take form…

– Maybe we say this every year but the bubble field seems especially weak this time around. Those coaches calling for expansion of the tournament are out of their minds. Maryland is a 10 seed, Providence is an 11 seed and Saint Mary’s has a very decent chance to sneak in should they get to the WCC tournament final. With only a handful of locks from non-BCS conferences, it doesn’t appear too many conference tournament upsets will narrow the bubble field, either.

– Bubble analysis: Texas A&M has really emerged out of nowhere to put together a decent resume. The quality wins are lacking (they get Missouri this week) but a 35 RPI, 41 SOS and 3 wins against the RPI #26-50 was enough to edge both Florida and Kentucky for one of the final nods. Michigan will have a difficult time making the field, but their 3 wins against the RPI top 25 will definitely help come Selection Sunday. Maryland at 18-10 (7-7) grabbed the last #10 seed playing in the #1 conference and with 8 wins against the RPI top 100, including victories vs. North Carolina and Michigan State. Penn State and Providence snuck in with their conference records, respectively.

– The #1 seeds are not set in stone. Louisville is emerging as a possible alternative should either North Carolina or Oklahoma continue to slip up. Kansas and Oklahoma have nearly identical resumes when you factor in head-to-head. Memphis just continues to win and there’s a small chance they sneak into the top line if they win out. North Carolina isn’t a lock at all, either. There’s still plenty to be determined.

– Two teams that clinched at least a share of their conferences Saturday, Washington and LSU, jumped a full seed from the last bracket. Washington climbed to a #3 seed with their 13-4 Pac-10 record, 12 RPI and 17 SOS. The one factor holding them back is zero wins against the RPI top 25 with UCLA at 26 representing the second highest Pac-10 team. LSU continues to build an impressive record. It’s going to be awfully hard to deny LSU a top-four seed if they finish with one loss in the SEC, as weak as it may be.

– The best part of the college basketball season is ahead with the conference tournaments and March Madness. It’s phenomenal that college hoops provides nearly everyone with one last chance to make a run for the ultimate goal in March, even if you’ve completely bombed during the season. Some of these low-major spots in the field will start to be written in Sharpie (well, bolded) in the coming brackets as teams punch their ticket. It’s an exciting time.

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s  resident bracketologist.  He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.

What changed (just from Wednesday night)-

– Connecticut re-acquainted itself with the #1 overall seed by downing Marquette on the road last night. The way this season is going, that will last about a week. With the loss, Marquette drops to a #4 seed and allows Missouri to move up a line after their dismantling of Kansas State.

– Duke picked up a hard-fought road win at Maryland and stayed put as a #3 seed. Elsewhere in the ACC, Clemson’s shocking home loss to Virginia Tech does two things: drops Clemson to a #4 seed and pushes the suddenly alive Virginia Tech  to a #11 seed.

– South Carolina’s sound defeat of Kentucky puts the Gamecocks in a strong position as a #9 seed while Kentucky drops to a #11. They badly need to beat LSU on Saturday at home.

– Oklahoma State made the biggest jump since Tuesday, climbing from the Last Team Out to a #10 seed mostly due to plenty of bubble movement. Their 32 RPI and 15 SOS are certainly helping, but they need to pick up some quality wins down the stretch to feel safe.

– UNLV falls to Utah last night but stays as a #11 seed due to 4 wins against the RPI top 25, a number no other bubble team can come close to matching.

– Dayton‘s last second loss to Rhode Island drops the Flyers to 4th in the Atlantic 10. The wins against Marquette and Xavier are nice, but Dayton is now firmly on the bubble with Temple and Rhode Island making late runs for bids.

1 Seeds: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Oklahoma
2 Seeds: Memphis, Louisville, Kansas, Michigan State
3 Seeds: Duke, Villanova, Missouri, Wake Forest
4 Seeds: Marquette, Clemson, Washington, Purdue
5 Seeds: Xavier, LSU, Arizona State, Illinois
6 Seeds: West Virginia, California, UCLA, Florida State
7 Seeds: Syracuse, Utah, Texas, Gonzaga
8 Seeds: Arizona, Minnesota, Butler, Boston College
9 Seeds: Ohio State, BYU, South Carolina, Utah State
10 Seeds: Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Florida
11 Seeds: Siena, Kentucky, Dayton, UNLV
12 Seeds: Davidson, Creighton, Providence, Virginia Tech
13 Seeds: VCU, Western Kentucky, Penn State, Buffalo
14 Seeds: Weber State, North Dakota State, American, Binghamton
15 Seeds: Radford, Cornell, Robert Morris, Sam Houston State
16 Seeds: Jacksonville, Morgan State, Morehead State, Cal State Northridge, Alabama State

Last Four In: Penn State, Providence, UNLV, Virginia Tech
Last Four Out: Saint Mary’s, San Diego State, Maryland, Miami (FL)
Next Four Out: Southern Cal, Kansas State, Michigan, Cincinnati
Also considered: Notre Dame, Temple, UAB, Rhode Island, Northern Iowa, Texas A&M

Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.  He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.

We kick off this week’s edition of Your Bubble Has Burst with a fitting segment: teams whose bubbles have successfully burst since last Thursday. These teams can begin making NIT/CBI reservations barring an unprecedented conference tournament run:

Note: all computer numbers prior to Tuesday’s games.

Georgetown– The Hoyas had two great opportunities to get right back into the thick of the bubble race by at least splitting two home games against Marquette and Louisville. Instead, they hung around with Marquette and were dismantled by Louisville, dropping both games and sending the spiraling Hoyas to a 5-10 conference record. Their next game: @ Villanova, meaning the best case scenario is 7-11 in the Big East. They’ll have to reach the Big East Tournament final now. Good luck.

Baylor– The disappointing Baylor Bears finally broke a six-game losing streak at home against Texas A&M before falling to Oklahoma State and dropping to 4-8 in the Big 12. Even if they should win 3 out of their next 4, a 7-9 record in the #4 RPI conference won’t be enough to make the field. They’ll have to make a run in Oklahoma City, but how can anyone expect that the way this team plays defense?

Seton Hall– The Pirates had an outside chance to at least put themselves in a position to earn bubble consideration with a late-season run. That went up in flames with their close loss to St. John’s on Sunday night. They have some bad losses out-of-conference and now welcome Pittsburgh to the Prudential Center. The Pirates should be a threat in the NIT.

Northwestern- The schedule gods were not kind to poor Northwestern, who finishes their Big Ten campaign with four out of five on the road. They were thrashed at Minnesota and trips to Purdue and Ohio State still remain. At 5-9 in the conference, their bubble has officially burst.

Mississippi State– How can a team with a 7-5 record in conference make this list? 1) when you’ve lost your last two games to Auburn and Alabama (home win in the middle), 2) you play in this year’s SEC, 3) you have 1 win against the RPI top 50, 4) you have an 84 RPI. The Bulldogs needed to win at Alabama on Saturday and didn’t. There’s no way the committee considers a team with their resume.

Nebraska– Their computer numbers are horrible and they saw their NCAA chances end last night with the home loss to Texas A&M. Simple as that.

On to the conferences:

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s  resident bracketologist.  He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.   

With roughly three weeks to go until Selection Sunday, we are now truly into the stretch run.

That said, the head honchos at Rush the Court have allowed me to change my Weekly Bracketology into a Daily Bracketlet from now until March 15. I’ll still provide my bracket for Monday mornings with crazy predictions like Villanova going to the title game. For the other days of the week, you’ll see a post like this one: summing up the previous night’s action in college basketball and how that influences any changes in the seeding. Only two games last night, but one team made a huge statement:

What Changed- Louisville’s dismantling of a finished Georgetown team in DC last night probably gives them the upper hand for a Big East regular season title. They have winnable home games against Marquette and Seton Hall and a tough road visit to West Virginia on the last Saturday of the season. With Connecticut and Pittsburgh still set to face each other on that same day, Louisville could very well surpass the loser of that game for a #1 seed. There’s no way the Big East receives 3 #1 seeds, so it will likely come down to the Big East Tournament, anyway. But Louisville is creeping.

The biggest story of Monday night is out of Norman, where the Blake Griffin-less Sooners fell at the hands of a young Kansas Jayhawks team quickly ascending up the ranks. Sherron Collins, Cole Aldrich and Tyshawn Taylor are playing phenomenal basketball, and Kansas now has the upper hand for the Big 12 title. Does Kansas have enough to pass Oklahoma for a #1 seed? Check out how close their resumes are (RPI vs. top 25, 26-50 and 51-100):

• Oklahoma- 25-3 (11-2), 4 RPI, 26 SOS, 2-1, 6-1, 8-0, beat UAB, Purdue, Davidson, USC, Utah, VCU, Kansas State, Texas, Oklahoma State.
• Kansas– 23-5 (12-1), 7 RPI, 16 SOS, 4-2, 3-2, 6-0, beat Washington, Temple, Tennessee, Siena, Kansas State (2), Oklahoma State, Oklahoma.

Oklahoma still maintains a top-4 RPI, but Kansas holds the lead in SOS and wins over the RPI top 25. Oklahoma has the better overall record and quality wins, yet Kansas has the 1-game lead in conference and a victory at Oklahoma. The overall resumes are eerily close. Slight, slight edge to Oklahoma right now. And before you argue that head-to-head should trump all, you’re wrong. It’s your overall performance throughout the season that trumps head-to-head.

1 Seeds: Pittsburgh, Connecticut, North Carolina, Oklahoma
2 Seeds: Memphis, Louisville, Kansas, Michigan State
3 Seeds: Duke, Marquette, Villanova, Clemson
4 Seeds: Wake Forest, Washington, Missouri, Purdue
5 Seeds: Xavier, LSU, Arizona State, Illinois
6 Seeds: Florida State, West Virginia, California, UCLA
7 Seeds: Utah, Syracuse, Texas, Gonzaga
8 Seeds: Arizona, Minnesota, Butler, Dayton
9 Seeds: Kentucky, Utah State, Boston College, Ohio State
10 Seeds: Tennessee, Penn State, BYU, Florida
11 Seeds: UNLV, South Carolina, Siena, Wisconsin
12 Seeds: Davidson, Kansas State, Creighton, Maryland
13 Seeds: VCU, Western Kentucky, San Diego State, Buffalo
14 Seeds: Weber State, North Dakota State, American, Binghamton
15 Seeds: Cornell, Radford, Sam Houston State, Robert Morris
16 Seeds: Morgan State, Long Beach State, Jacksonville, Alabama State, Morehead State

Last Four In: Kansas State, San Diego State, Maryland, UNLV
Last Four Out: Michigan, Oklahoma State, Saint Mary’s, Miami (FL)
Next Four Out: Cincinnati, Southern Cal, Virginia Tech, Providence
Also Considered: Notre Dame, Temple, Nebraska, UAB, Rhode Island, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, Mississippi State

Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.  He’ll be regularly out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.

02.23.09 Bracketology

 Last Four In: Kansas State, San Diego State, Maryland, UNLV
Last Four Out: Michigan, Oklahoma State, Saint Mary’s, Miami (FL)
Next Four Out: Cincinnati, Southern Cal, Virginia Tech, Providence
Also Considered: Notre Dame, Temple, Nebraska, Georgetown, UAB, Rhode Island, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, Mississippi State

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.   He’ll be regularly out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.

Selection Sunday is sneaking up on us, folks. The conversations around college basketball are focused squarely on the bubble as we crawl closer and closer to March 15th and the unveiling of the new bracket. Whose schedule is looking favorable down the stretch? Which teams need to win out? Is the ACC approaching the Big East in terms of expected bids? Here’s your latest bubble update on Your Bubble Has Burst here at Rush the Court:

Note: all computer numbers prior to Wednesday’s games.

Atlantic Coast

Locks: North Carolina built a hefty lead in the ACC this week with their wins over Duke and Miami, while their rival Blue Devils have fallen in 4 out of 6 to drop 2.5 games behind the Tar Heels. Both Duke and Carolina, along with 7-4 Clemson and 7-4 Wake Forest, appear to be locks at this point. Despite Wake’s slip-ups to unranked ACC opposition, their home wins against Duke and North Carolina and road wins at BYU, Clemson and Boston College should be enough.

Comfortably in: Sure, they laid an egg in Winston-Salem, but Florida State still sits in a nice position. A 21 RPI and 32 SOS with 2 wins against the RPI top 25 in the #1 RPI conference means Leonard Hamilton will finally lead his Seminoles to tournament action. The schedule down the stretch does provide room for a collapse, though, with a home-and-home against Virginia Tech, trips to BC and Duke and home contests vs. Clemson and Miami. No gimmes on that schedule.

Work left to do: Those buzzer-beater losses to Xavier and Wisconsin would look very good as wins on Seth Greenberg’s resume right about now. Virginia Tech has done a nice job turning it around in ACC play to compile a 51 RPI, 49 SOS and wins at Wake and Miami. Still, the loss to Virginia hurts big and their non-conference wins are less than impressive. With @Clemson, Duke, North Carolina and two games vs. Florida State left on the slate, they are far from a sure thing. Boston College will probably hear their name called on Selection Sunday after the win against Duke on Sunday. They really only need to go 2-2 down the stretch and 9-7 should be enough. Their last three games are favorable: FSU, @NCST, GT. At 4-8 in the ACC, Miami needs to win out to get to 8-8. Period.

On the brink: Maryland’s throttling at the hands of halfway decent opponents in seemingly every game save Michigan State can’t impress the tournament committee. At 5-6, they’re still alive. They absolutely need to steal one of their three remaining home games with Carolina, Duke and Wake Forest while also knocking off NC State and Virginia on the road. It’s a tall task for coach Williams.

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We haven’t seen much written on this yet, so we thought it would be worth our 1000th post here at RTC (woohoo!) to mock the media’s mock bracket that came out last Friday.   You remember the drill – the NCAA invites twenty distinguished members of the hoops cognoscenti to Indianapolis to go through the same exercise of filling the bracket in twelve hours that the NCAA Selection Committee goes through in five days (we’re still awaiting RTC’s invite).  According to Mike DeCourcy, this abridged media experience somehow proves that there’s no time for shenanigans amongst the committee in terms of potential made-for-tv matchups and backroom wheeling and dealing – “demystifying and demythifying” were the words used – even though the fact that the Selection Committee has five full days (vs. 12 hours) to consider other variables, such as ensuring compelling matchups, seems lost on him.  Demythifying?  We’re still trying to figure out how UNLV was selected over Vanderbilt and Notre Dame in the 2000 Tourney.  Oh yeah, Craig Thompson.

Anyway, here’s the media mock bracket (as of last Friday):

Clemson as an overall #2 seed is abominable, and that was true even before the Tigers’ loss to Virginia on Sunday.  And we have to agree with the commenters on Decourcy’s piece who take issue with Florida as a #8 seed ranked ahead of SEC leader LSU (#10 seed).  He’s right in that LSU’s out-of-conference schedule reads like a Big South slate, but credit has to be given for essentially dominating a BCS conference, which is what LSU at 9-1 has done to date.   The fairer way would have been to give both #9 seeds and be done with that dilemma.  Butler as a #3 seed, Utah as a #5 seed and USC as a #9 seed are so absurd it’s not even worth further mention.

We were also really surprised to see Georgetown in the bracket anywhere, much less as a #10 seed.  The Hoyas have top-tier talent and a decent RPI, but goodness, at 13-9 and 4-7 in the Big East at the time of this bracket, this has every hallmark of a rep pick.  And what happened at the #11-seed level of this bracket?  Cornell (ok, which reporter went to Cornell?), South Carolina (ok), Davidson (will be higher) and Arizona (will be a good bit higher)?   Decourcy mentioned the Davidson dilemma, but if the Wildcats win the SoCon again, they’ll be no lower than a #10 this year – mark that down.

Cross-referencing with our bracketologist Zach Hayes’ latest report which came out yesterday, we see that our guy’s analysis is significantly stronger and well contemplated than the bracket that the media came up with by themselves.  Seriously, we can’t believe some of their seeding selections.  This is comprised of America’s college hoops experts?  Wethinks that the bloggers could have done a better job, even in such a small slice of time as twelve hours.

Update:  we were tipped to Kyle Whelliston’s excellent column describing the events of the media mock selection process, and it makes things considerably clearer.  First, the mock committee were given scenarios based on automatic qualifiers that helps to explain why some of the seedings are out of whack with current relative positions; second, there was a major technical glitch during the proceedings that led to the seed lines 6 and below getting filled based purely on RPI.  Whelliston made pains to say that this is not how it would typically go.  DeCourcy never mentioned it.  This makes us feel a little better about the process, and the resultant bracket, although we still don’t think that it proves anything about conference affiliation considerations and/or other backroom shenanigans.  After all, the real committee has more time and are better versed in how to do this. 

Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.  He’ll be regularly out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.

Here’s the latest edition of RTC Bracketology from our resident bracketologist Zach. This was created before the Pitt-UConn game last night so it does not reflect that game or any others from last night.

RTC Bracket as of February 16th

More on the key games this week and a rationale of the seeds and snubs after the jump.

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