1. George Schroeder argues that the writing is on the wall of the brand-spanking-new Matthew Knight Arena at Oregon — head coach Ernie Kent is dead man walking at the school.  Regardless of the past successes of Kent (two Elite Eights), we think Shroeder is correct.  The sense around UO is that Kent got a little too comfortable in his spot there, and this isn’t the business where comfort wears well when you’re losing Pac-10 games hand over fist.  Especially with a new $200M arena across campus to fill.
2. Alabama suspended its best player JaMychal Green indefinitely for a violation of undisclosed team rules.  It’s been a very tough year for head coach Anthony Grant in his first campaign in Tuscaloosa, but an NIT is salvageable if the Tide can capture its last game to ensure a .500 season.  They currently stand at 15-14 (5-10 SEC) after beating South Carolina in Columbia last night.
3. Some early bracket science (note: not bracketology)…  every seed matchup from #1 vs. #16 broken down statistically.  Everybody already knows that the #9 seed wins more often over the #8 than vice versa (54-46), but we bet you didn’t know that #8 seeds are three times more likely than #9 seeds to knock off the top seed in the second round.
4. A couple of good pieces on NCAA Expansion 96 this week.  George Dorhmann gives us four good reasons that expansion is (say it altogether now…) a bad idea, while Stewart Mandel offers a very informative and insightful article on the multiple layers of decisionmaking and issues involved in this decision.  His key statement that every college basketball fan should take to heart: “This much is certain. Nearly all the various parties with a vested interest in the tourney seem far more open to expansion possibilities than the general public.” Folks, if you do nothing else for the rest of your lives, let interim NCAA president James Isch know how you feel about this possibility coming directly from the fans themselves.  If they’re going ostrich on us, then let’s make sure they hear us through the sand.  Contact him directly at jisch@ncaa.org.
5. ESPN’s Rick Reilly joined the ‘when to RTC’ conversation yesterday just in time for Maryland’s RTC against Duke last night.  Using his Ironclad and Unbreakable RTCing Rules, Terp fans will not be eligible for an RTC until the 2022-23 season.  Hyperbole, yes, but we do agree with his primary sentiment in that it’s happening far too often.  We have no  hard data on this, but it’s getting to the point where every school seems to be RTCing at least once a season.  If everyone is doing it for any reason under the sun, then nobody is doing anything unique or special.  The best idea we’ve heard from the twitterati in recent weeks was the idea that a student body would ‘fake RTC,’ as in threatening to rush without actually doing so.  The first student body that actually pulls that one off would forever be in our debt and gratitude.

Large Wednesday.  It was a big-time night of games, the kind of evening that has you checking the clock all day long in nervous anticipation.  Most of the games ended in predictable fashion, but that didn’t make them any less interesting.  To get this out of the way, ranked teams #3 Kentucky, #6 Purdue, #10 New Mexico, #13 Tennessee, #15 BYU, #16 Temple, #17 Wisconsin and #24 Texas A&M all won, most easily.  UNM won the Mountain West title outright, and Kentucky grabbed at least a share of the SEC title tonight.  We’ll focus on the biggest games, the key games of bubbular interest, and the conference tourneys in this space tonight, though.

• #2 Kansas 82, #5 Kansas State 65. ESPN got lucky that this game was only interesting for about thirty minutes tonight.  At the 15:39 mark of the second half, K-State’s Luis Colon hit a layup to pull the Wildcats back within one point, and we thought this battle between Big 12 stalwarts was destined to go down to the wire in Lawrence.  We were wrong.  Kansas seemingly awakened from its halftime slumber and went on a quick 9-0 run to open its lead back up to double digits.  KSU made one more push to get it back to six, but the Jayhawks used a 13-1 run to put the game away for the 59th consecutive time in Allen Fieldhouse.  The Kansas defense, virtually nonexistent in their loss at Oklahoma State on Saturday, was back in action here, holding their in-state rival to 40% shooting and limiting the opponents not named Denis Clemente or Jacob Pullen to a mere 24 points.  The old barn was rocking as Kansas won the Big 12 regular season outright and likely wrapped up a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament as well, but we’re not completely certain because we could hardly see the action on our ESPN360 feed.  KU walks into a trap game at Missouri on Saturday, while K-State should still finish second in the league with a win over Iowa State this weekend.

Sherron Collins: Winningest Player in KU History (KC Star/R. Sugg)

• #23 Maryland 79, #4 Duke 72.  The better big game of the night took place in College Park, as Maryland outlasted Duke in a back-and-forth contest that resulted in the Terps tying the rival Blue Devils at the top of the ACC standings with one game remaining.  Ultimately, it was Gary Williams’ team, led by the animated and spectacular Greivis Vasquez (20/4/5 assts), who broke a 69-all tie with two minutes to go and ended the game on a 10-3 closing run.  In particular, it was Vasquez’s running, fading, only-the-kind-of-shot-he-would-take-and-make jumper that gave Maryland a four-point lead with 39 seconds left and forced Duke to start fouling soon thereafter.  We really shouldn’t read too much into one result in a rivalry game, so we won’t, but one thing is very clear in that Maryland has been playing the better part of two months much, much better than their ranking might 0therwise indicate.  Since the new year turned, the Terps have only lost at Wake (when WFU was playing well), Clemson and Duke.  That’s it.  Pollsters have been holding four nonconference losses against them, but if Maryland isn’t a top four seed in the NCAA Tournament, then we haven’t seen one.  As for the regular season title, the Terps will play in a trap game at Virginia this weekend, while Duke will actually have the easier home game against rival UNC.  If both win (or lose), then Duke will win the top seed in the ACC Tournament, but suffice it just to say that these two are clearly the best two teams in the ACC.  Now, about that RTC, Terp fans…  we love the quick, full coverage of the court, and we know it’s been a few years since you last beat Duke, but, what if you’re the better team?

Huge Bubble Games.

• Notre Dame 58, Connecticut 50. There’s absolutely no question that the Irish are playing better without all-american Luke Harangody than they were with him.  Notre Dame won its third straight game over a solid team to put themselves squarely back into the NCAA picture, but with an RPI in the 60s, a win over Marquette this weekend and another in the Big East Tourney are needed.  The Ls keep piling up for UConn (13 now), but how long can you hide behind the excuse of a tough schedule and some big wins before you cut them out of the picture?
• Florida State 51, Wake Forest 47.  Wake is busily playing itself from a projected #4 seed to outside the field in a short span of two weeks with the Deacs’ fourth straight loss tonight.  Al-Farouq Aminu had a ridiculous zero-point, five-foul performance in the loss, and with a game versus surging Clemson on Sunday, Wake could be staring at five Ls in a row to end the regular season.
• Memphis 70, UAB 65.  In a battle of CUSA bubble teams, Memphis was able to get a big win while also wrapping up the #2 seed in next week’s Conference USA Tournament in Tulsa.  In most mock brackets, UAB is the second team out of this conference, but now Memphis has swept the season series between the two.  It will be interesting if they meet again in Tulsa with Memphis taking a third game as well.

Helped/Hurt Themselves.

Read the rest of this entry »

March 4, 1990.

Quarterfinals, West Coast Conference Tournament.

Loyola Marymount vs Portland.  13:34 left, first half.

Hank Gathers had just scored on a dunk to put his Lions ahead, 25-13.  Unfortunately, we all know what happened soon after.

Twenty years to the day have passed since that moment, one of the most tragic in the history of college basketball.  Gathers, of course, was much more than the leader of the most exciting college team ever to take the floor, and what he meant to people as a friend and family member cannot be explained or summarized in a hundred articles on this or any other website, or by the various 20-year remembrances of both Gathers and that 1990 Loyola Marymount team that you’re likely to see in the next few weeks.   After that moment, the entire WCC Tournament was stopped.  As regular season champions, Loyola Marymount was awarded the WCC’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.  They were cast as a #11 seed in the West region, and given the “opportunity” to decline the bid for obvious reasons.  This was a good basketball team; they had posted a 13-1 WCC record and were 26-6 overall.  But if they chose to sit this one out — who could blame them?

The remaining Lions decided to play on, knowing that it was the most fitting way to honor their departed friend.  What came after that was probably the most remarkable three-game run in NCAA Tournament history, and not just because LMU was an underdog in each game.  Knowing that not playing was not an option, these guys had to find a way to go out and win games and enjoy basketball without feeling like they were minimizing the life of their fallen teammate.  Working this out in your head would be difficult at any age, let alone when you’re a college kid between 18-22.  Still, they found a way to get through the first game and defeat New Mexico State, 111-92.  They found a way to annihilate defending champion Michigan 149-115 — that is not a typo — hitting 21 three-pointers and forcing UM into 27 turnovers.  They found a way to endure and win the Sweet 16 game against Alabama, 62-60,  a game in which Alabama would actually pull the ball out even when the Tide had 3-on-1 and 4-on-2 fastbreaks so as not to get caught up in the LMU style.  It took the eventual champion in UNLV — one of the best college basketball teams of all time — to defeat them in the Elite Eight.

Fryer (#21) Celebrating

The entire nation had become fascinated with LMU even before Gathers’ death.  Everyone remembers the hyperdrive, speed of light, is-this-really-happening pace that coach Paul Westhead employed (LMU averaged 122.4 PPG that year).  Everyone remembers Bo Kimble’s tribute of shooting his first free throw of each game left-handed, and that he was 3-3  in the NCAA Tournament with the left hand.  The greatest part of the LMU run, though, was the 41-point performance by Jeff Fryer in the second round game against Michigan.  A perfect fit for Westhead’s offense, Fryer was a skilled shooter with classic form and unbelievable range who had the green light to go up with it pretty much as soon as he crossed half-court.  Against Michigan, he entered a rarified state of shooting consciousness, hitting 15-20 on the night — and an unbelievable 11-15 from behind the three point arc.  And if you ever get to see a replay of this game, you’ll notice — a lot of them weren’t exactly with his toes near the line.  It was phenomenal.  The 11 threes still stand as a record number for an NCAA Tournament game, and it was one of the great individual performances in the history of the event.  Mr. Fryer still lives in California and was kind enough to answer some of our questions about those days.

The Righty Kimble Going Lefty

RTC: To this day, when people think of Loyola Marymount, they think of the fast-paced style, the great tournament run in 1990, and Hank Gathers’ untimely death in the West Coast Conference Tournament quarterfinals that year.  The WCC Tournament begins on Friday.  It’s been 20 years.  What has been the impact of Gathers’ death on your life?

JF: The impact of Hank’s life on my life would be the privilege of playing hoops with one of the best college ball players ever.  I’m thankful that he decided to play his college years at LMU and the timing couldn’t have been more perfect.  I try not to dwell on his death, just try to remember his life, and that everybody has a time to pass on, and that was his time.

Read the rest of this entry »

Patrick Marshall of White & Blue Review is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley Conference.

PRESEASON vs. ACTUAL RESULTS

As you can see from the preseason predictions I made on the Missouri Valley conference back in October versus how things ended up, the MVC turned out to be difficult to predict this year as none of the teams performed as expected other than Northern Iowa and Wichita State.

I originally was not sold on the Panthers, but as the season wore on, I could see the cohesiveness and all the little things this group of players do to win games.  Even with the suspension of Jordan Eglseder in three of the final four games, they were able to rally for the most part and continue their dominance in the Valley.  Wichita State may have surprised some, but the Shockers appear to be back in the Valley picture after a few year absence from relevance.  The work Gregg Marshall has done to build this team back up from scratch has paid off.  The question now is whether it is enough to get to an NCAA Tournament postseason.

HELLO SAINT LOUIS

The Missouri Valley Conference tournament will take place this coming week at the Scottrade Center in downtown Saint Louis.  Rush the Court will be live in St. Louis this week to keep you updated on the things going on at Arch Madness.  Here is how the bracket shapes up:

Read the rest of this entry »

Joe Dzuback of Villanova by the Numbers is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference.

Conference Offensive and Defensive Efficiencies

The top half of the conference has separated clearly from the lower half, despite a number of upsets over the last two weeks. Temple, lurking in the ranking just below the top, emerged as the top team according to the offensive-defensive differential. The statistics apparently provide a numeric affirmation to the AP pollsters at last. It is reassuring to find that the eyeball test and the numbers agree, Dayton notwithstanding. George Washington appears to have joined Dayton as an unlucky team; Pythagoras (based on conference games only) projects a .500 record for the Colonials, a development that if true, should come as very bad news for the Owls (and good news for Xavier). Saint Joseph’s and Fordham have separated from the rest of the conference, settling at the bottom with rather large negative differentials. La Salle sports a record similar to Saint Joseph’s, but their differential suggests this may be more a case of bad luck, than bad defense. This is a good illustration of how the won-loss record tend to more accurately reflect the loss of seniors Ruben Guillandeaux and Kimmani Barrett than the differentials. The differentials are slow to reflect significant (and rapid) changes in personnel (among other game-influencing factors), a fact frequently overlooked. In La Salle’s case, Pomeroy, using a calculation which also relies on cumulative statistical data, continues to project the Explorers as winners in one of their two remaining games. To the observer this may seem to be unjustifiably optimistic, but the rumored collapse of morale on Hawk Hill may eventually make Pomeroy’s projection correct. Right record, wrong opponent.

The Last Week

The teams are down to their last one-to-two games before Atlantic City. The Richmond-Xavier game eliminated Richmond from contention for the #1 seed. Temple can take the #1 spot by winning out. Xavier will take the #2 seed (unless the Musketeers lose both of their remaining games), and Richmond should take the #3 seed (though if the Spiders stumble very badly their fall could scramble seeds #3 through #7). George Washington, Duquesne and St. Bonaventure are locked in a three-way tie for eighth place, but the head-to-head game between St. Bonaventure and Duquesne should drop the loser to the bottom of that cluster (unless Massachusetts puts on a closing rush). The winner is not, however, guaranteed the #8 seed. La Salle and Saint Joseph’s are also tied (for twelfth place), but their season-closing game should settle the seed, and other issues.

Standings (as of 03/02/2010)

1. Temple (12-2, 24-5, #16 AP)
2. Xavier (12-2, 21-7, #25 AP)
3. Richmond (11-3, 22-7)
4. St. Louis (10-4, 19-9)
5. Charlotte (9-5, 19-9)
6. Rhode Island (8-6, 20-7)
7. Dayton (8-6, 19-9)
8. George Washington (6-8, 16-11)
9. Duquesne (6-8, 15-13)
10. St. Bonaventure (6-8, 13-14)
11. Massachusetts (4-10, 10-18)
12. La Salle (3-11, 11-17)
13. Saint Joseph’s (3-11, 9-19)
14. Fordham (0-14, 2-14)

Team Rundowns

• Charlotte.  February was a cruel month for Coach Lutz and the 49ers. They closed the books for the month going 3-4, and 1-4 in their last five games. They opened the month at the top of the conference and very much in the dicussion for an NCAA bid, but they have fallen to #5 in the conference and among Zach Hayes’ “Next Four Out”. Their last two games will not be easy, as both come against conference rivals who compete directly for seeds #3 through #6. First they travel to New England for a game at Rhode Island on Wednesday (3/3). The Rams, ranked #6 in the conference this week, are listed among the “Last Four Out”. The loser will most likely fall off the bubble. Their regular season final versus Richmond (currently #3 in conference standings) provides the 49ers with an opportunity to wreak a little havoc. Should Charlotte sweep both games they will find themselves in a two or three way tie for the #3 seed. Lose both and they will most likely draw the #7 seed.
• Dayton.  The Flyers started the week with a big (but hardly unexpected) 49-41 loss at Temple. The low score hints at a defensive struggle, which indeed it was. The pace, about 60 for each team, is low for D1 (the average, per Ken Pomeroy, is 67.5), but certainly enough possessions had the teams played to their offensive ratings for a score in the mid-to-high 60s. The Flyers did manage 45 rebounds (against 41 points) and about 0.67 points per possession on offense. The rebounds were overwhelmingly defensive — the Flyers snagged 75% of Temple’s misses, but only 28% of their own. Dayton took their revenge on the Minutemen 96-68, on Saturday (2/27). Tied at sixth in conference with an 8-6 record, the Flyers have opportunities to improve their conference tournament seed and, listed as one of “The Last Four Out” by Zach Hayes (and among the #1 seeds by NIT-ology), to work their way back into the field of 65. Dayton travels to Richmond for a Thursday (3/4) game, then back to Dayton to close the season versus St. Louis. Both teams are higher in the conference pecking order, so a Flyer sweep could scramble the tournament seeds (#3 through #7) going into Atlantic City.
• Duquesne.  Duquesne lost their only game last week, a 69-59 road loss to St. Louis, on Saturday (2/27). The Dukes are in a three-way tie with St. Bonaventure and George Washington, for the eighth seed in the conference tournament. Should they sweep their last two games, at rival St. Bonaventure on Wednesday (3/3) and a home closer against Fordham on Friday (3/5), Duquesne can square their conference record at eight, and secure the #8 seed in Atlantic City. Lose both, and the Dukes could fall to #10.
• Fordham.  The Rams dropped their only game last week, and the prospects for a winless conference run loom larger. Ken Pomeroy’s projection moved up to 94%, and with a home game versus Xavier next, the road closer at Duquesne is most likely their last best chance.
• George Washington.  The Colonials ran off two wins last week, an 81-72 win over a staggering La Salle squad, and 75-70 win that hurt Charlotte’s postseason prospects rather badly. At 6-8, George Washington is playing for seed, specifically #8, at the conference tournament. They have a harder road than Duquesne, but easier than St. Bonaventure, as they play Saint Joseph’s on Wednesday (3/3) and Temple on the road Saturday (3/6).
• La Salle.  The Explorers ran their losing streak to eight with losses last week to George Washington 81-72, on Wednesday (2/24) and Temple (for the second time) 65-53, on Sunday (2/28). They have two more games left before they head into Atlantic City (as either a #12 or #13 seed) and close the book on this season. They host Massachusetts on Wednesday (3/3), then close out their Big 5 series with a game at Saint Joseph’s on Saturday (3/6) in a game that will most likely decide the fourth place team in the Big 5 series and the #11 through #13 seeds in Atlantic City. Temple wins it outright this year with a 4-0 record. Villanova finishes second with a 3-1 record, while La Salle and Saint Josephs’s both have a 1-2 record going into their last game. Penn finishes last with an 0-4 record.  If the Explorers can salvage anything from this season, it may be a win over cross city rival Saint Joseph’s.
• Massachusetts.  The Minutemen dropped their only game last week 96-68 on the road to Dayton. They finish out the regular season with a last road trip to Philadelphia on Wednesday (3/3) to take on La Salle, then return home to close the regular season against Rhode Island on Saturday (3/6). Lose to La Salle, and Massachusetts drops into an 11th-place tie with La Salle. Unfortunately for Massachusetts, they lose that particular tiebreaker. Though Rhode Island dropped a late season game to St. Bonaventure last week, the chances they drop a second late season upset is probably very small.
• Rhode Island.  Their loss to St. Bonaventure 81-74 on Saturday (2/27) was unexpected and a case of very inconvenient timing. The Rams have little time and opportunity to “get that one back.” The Rams have two games left — a home game versus Charlotte on Wednesday (3/3) and a road closer in Amherst, MA, on Saturday (3/6). The Charlotte game has both conference tournament seed and postseason implications. Though both teams are considered, by consensus, out of the field of 65, the winner will most likely remain on the bubble, pending conference play and the state of the field at the end of next week.
• Richmond.  The Spiders took a very tough road loss in Cincinnati on Sunday (2/28). Their game with Xavier went to two overtimes before they lost by two points, 78-76. The loss cost them not only the #1 seed in the conference tournament, but it also dropped them out of the AP’s Top 25 poll, Xavier moving into it in their stead. Coach Mooney’s squad has two more games, nearly as difficult, before Atlantic City. The first is a home game with Dayton on Thursday (3/4); the second is a road game at Halton Arena, with Charlotte, on Saturday (3/6). Should the Spiders sweep they will secure their spot in the conference tournament (and the NCAA’s field of 65), but also burst both Dayton’s and Charlotte’s bubbles.
• Saint Joseph’s.  Saint Joseph’s losing streak has extended to five games with a road loss to Charlotte last Wednesday (2/24). The Hawks travel to DC to play George Washington on Wednesday (3/3), in a game they are expected (according to Ken Pomeroy) to lose. They close out regular season play by hosting La Salle in a game that will close out both school’s conference play and their Big 5 series play. Tied with La Salle, both in the conference (3-11) and in the City Series (1-2), the Saturday game will determine who gets the #12 (and #13) seed in Atlantic City and who finishes #3 (and #4) in the Philadelphia City Series.
• St. Bonaventure.  The Bonnies sprung an upset on Rhode Island 81-74, on Saturday (2/27), extending their winning streak to three games, matching the longest winning streak of their 2010 season. Coach Schmidt’s squad reached their 2009 conference win total with two games in hand. Wednesday (3/3) they host Duquesne, probably their best opportunity for win number seven. A win over Duquesne would provide a temporary advantage for the #9 seed in the conference tournament, they close out the regular season with a road game in Cincinnati, versus Xavier, on Saturday (3/6).
• St. Louis.  Coach Majerus’ team notched their only loss in February when they dropped a 73-71 decision to Xavier, on Wednesday (2/24). They closed February with a 7-1 record as they beat Duquesne 69-59, Saturday (2/27). St. Louis’ current record, 19-9, is a decided improvement over last season, but the Billikens will be hard pressed to notch win number 20 before Atlantic City, as they host Temple Wednesday (3/3), then take to the road to close the regular season at Dayton on Saturday (3/6).
• Temple.  The Owls had a good week, beating Dayton 49-41, in a defensive tug-of-war, on Wednesday (2/24), then clinching the Big 5 title outright with a 4-0 record, by beating La Salle 65-53, on Sunday (2/28). The Owls moved up to #16 in the AP poll on Monday and, by consensus, is projected as a #4 seed in the NCAA tournament. Coach Dunphy’s squad has two more games in the conference regular season. They travel to St. Louis to play the Billikens on Wednesday (3/3), then return home to close out the season by hosting George Washington on Saturday (3/6). The Billikens will be a good test for Temple. The game will most likely be a defensive struggle, though not on the “rock fight” style of the Temple-Dayton game last week. A second consecutive 2-0 week would put Temple’s winning streak at seven, and give the Owls a 9-1 “Last Ten” record going into Atlantic City.
• Xavier.  In a make-or-break week, the Musketeers and their rookie head coach came through with two close but necessary wins. They earned a #25 rank in the AP poll after beating a challenging St. Louis team 73-71, on the road Wednesday (2/24), and taking down the conference-leading Richmond Spiders 78-76, in a game that went into two overtimes, on Sunday (2/28). They have largely secured at least a #2 seed for Atlantic City, with the potential to move up should Temple stumble this week. With only a stricken Fordham squad on Wednesday (3/3) and a middle-of-the-pack St. Bonaventure team on Saturday (3/6) left on their schedule, Xavier, 9-1 in their last 10 games, is catching fire at the right time. They could sail into Atlantic City with a seven-game winning streak at their back.

Games to Catch

• Charlotte at Rhode Island – Wednesday 3/3 — Each team has inside and outside scorers who drive their offense — Shamari Spears, DiJuan Harris and Derrio Green for Charlotte versus Delroy James, Lamonte Ulmer and Keith Cothran for Rhode Island. The “tie breaker” may well come down to their star freshmen, Akeem Richmond for Rhode Island and Chris Braswell for Charlotte. The 49ers and Rams took turns at the top of the conference back in January. The winner may be contention for the #4 seed and the last bye in the conference tournament and a place on the bubble for the NCAAs. The loser plays Tuesday night and gets the fast track to the NIT.
• Temple at St. Louis – Wednesday 3/3 — Temple’s last big road test in the conference this season. The Owls have virtually clinched a #1 or #2 seed in the conference tournament next week, but winning this game would give them a strong leg up for the top spot. St. Louis has been tough in Chaifetz Arena, going 14-2 this season. The Billikens are off the radar for the NCAA Tournament, the product of a young team and inconsistent run through their out of conference schedule, but a win here would turn a few heads, and give them some momentum going into Dayton (on Saturday) and then to Atlantic City.
• Dayton at Richmond – Thursday 3/4 — Dayton needs another good win to bolster their NCAA resume. Richmond, after a tough loss at Xavier on Sunday, needs a bounceback game to rebuild their momentum going into Atlantic City. The game will match two of the conference’s more deliberate (and efficient) offenses and best defenses. Dayton’s more athletic frontcourt could present some match-up problems for Richmond. On the other hand, which Flyer will draw Justin Harper as their defensive assignment?
• St. Louis at Dayton – Saturday 3/6 — Another weekend, and the conference-makers give Dayton another low possession, highly efficient offense to test the Flyers’ defense. If St. Louis comes in having taken a loss on Wednesday, while Dayton comes in having won on Thursday, a Dayton win would bring in the tie breaker rules to sort out seeds #4 and #5 (and maybe #6).

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Connecticut @ Notre Dame – 7:00 pm on ESPN (***)

This game will be absolutely crucial to the tournament stock of both teams.  If UConn gets in the tournament this year, it will be by the skin of their teeth, and if Notre Dame is actually dancing in March, they will likely be one of the last teams in.  Both of these teams are dangerous right now, as the Huskies have recently beaten Villanova and West Virginia, while the Irish are coming off victories against Pitt and Georgetown.  What is ironic about Notre Dame is that their recent run has come without superstar Luke Harangody.  If the Irish win their last two contests and win a game in the Big East tournament, how will the NCAA selection committee view his absence?  The more that ND wins without him, the less it seems they will be punished come selection time.  Tim Abromaitis, who has been Harangody’s sidekick this year, scored 53 points in the first two games Harangody was out (both games were losses), but when his point totals and shooting percentages dropped in his team’s last two games, the Irish won.  The team has only had seven bench points in their last two games, but every other starter has stepped up at times to take the weight off of Abromaitis.  In the previous matchup of these teams early in the year, Harangody scored 31 points and the bench did not score at all in a 12-point loss for the Irish.  If they can get double figure efforts from at least three starters and keep up their 1.7:1 assist to turnover ratio, they have an excellent shot of moving into one of those last spots in the field.

#5 Kansas St. @ #2 Kansas – 8:00 pm on ESPN 360 (*****)

Can KU's Mr. Big Shot Do It Again (Getty/P. Aiken)

KSU coach Frank Martin has already built up the game to be one of the biggest in school history, and nobody can blame him.  With a win tonight, Kansas State would make a huge jump in their bid for a top seed.  Unfortunately, the viewing for this game could be tricky.  It is being broadcast on the Big 12 network, which is not accessible to many fans across the country, and ESPN360 is available intermittently.  Fans can try to access channelsurfing.net and atdhe.net in order to view this game, because almost everybody can agree it is worth watching.  When these teams met earlier in Manhattan, Sherron Collins came up with a huge three-point play at the end of overtime to give Kansas the key victory.  The Jayhawks were unable to pull away earlier because they missed 11 free throws in the game.  Kansas actually shoots below 70% from the line on the year, and if the game goes down to the wire again, their free throw shooting could become a factor.  Kansas State has won seven consecutive games, and their wins have become increasingly more impressive, with solid victories at Texas Tech and against Missouri in their last two contests.  Now that some of KSU’s former opponents are now struggling, the Wildcats are still looking for a win against a great team, and if they can keep up their outstanding defensive efforts like they had against the Red Raiders and Tigers, they will have a great chance to win tonight.  Still, Kansas has an even better defense (the Jayhawks rank third in Ken Pomeroy’s defensive rankings), and with 58 consecutive wins at Allen Fieldhouse, the Jayhawks should likely win again in a highly entertaining matchup.

Read the rest of this entry »

Sam Wasson of bleedCRIMSON.net and Travis Mason-Bushman of Vandal Nation are the RTC correspondents for the Western Athletic Conference.

As the WAC enters its final week of regular season play, Utah State has clinched at least a share of the WAC regular season title for the third consecutive season. The navy-clad Aggies earned the share with a 76-39 pasting of Fresno State. New Mexico State takes to the road with a chance to tie for the regular season title as the crimson-clad Aggies will face Nevada and Utah State. At the bottom of the standings it’s three teams — Idaho, Hawai’i and Boise State — fighting for the final two spots in the conference tournament which begins next week.

Current Standings

• 1) Utah State, 24-6 (13-2)
• 2) New Mexico State, 19-9 (11-3)
• T3) Louisiana Tech, 22-7 (9-5)
• T3) Nevada 17-11 (9-5)
• 5) San Jose State 14-14 (6-8)
• 6) Fresno State, 14-17 (6-9)
• 7) Idaho, 13-15 (4-10)
• 8) Hawai’i, 10-18 (3-11)
• 9) Boise State, 13-16 (3-11)

Team Breakdowns

Boise State, 13-16 (3-11)

The week’s results:  02/25 W @ Louisiana Tech, 72-59, 02/27 L @ New Mexico State, 95-92

Upcoming games:  03/04 vs. Hawai’i, 03/06 vs. San Jose State

After looking like they were going to be the odd man out of the conference tournament just a week ago, the Broncos have been re-energized by a road split at Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State. BSU pulled off the stunning upset over La. Tech, winning by 13 points, and then nearly pulled off another shocker mounting a huge second half comeback before falling just short by three at New Mexico State. The Broncos can play their way into the tournament as they host Hawai’i and San Jose State to end the regular season. A split by the Broncos could still end their season as Hawai’i would then own the tiebreaker over Boise State and a pair of losses would guarantee their missing the conference tournament.

Fresno State, 14-17 (6-9)

The week’s results:  02/23 W vs. Cal State-Bakersfield, 79-68, 02/27 L @ San Jose State, 72-45, 03/01 L @ Utah State, 76-39

Upcoming games:  03/04 vs. Louisiana Tech

The Bulldogs had a disastrous week of conference play, losing on the road at San Jose State and at Utah State by 27 and 37, respectively. In both games Fresno State was down big at halftime. FSU hosts Louisiana Tech on Senior Night in Fresno but a loss could drop them all the way to the seventh seed in the conference tournament.

Hawai’i, 10-18 (3-11)

The week’s results:  02/26 L vs. Utah State, 61-50, 02/28 W vs. Nevada, 74-63

Upcoming games:  03/04 @ Boise State, 03/06 @ Idaho

The Warriors finally broke through by snapping a nine-game losing streak, eight of those in conference. It couldn’t have come at a better time for Hawaii as their win over Nevada on Saturday came on a tumultuous day that saw the islands threatened by a tsunami. It was coupled with a loss by Boise State at New Mexico State and enabled the Warriors to have a chance to play their way into the WAC tournament in the final week of the regular season. Hawai’i will travel to the mainland to face Boise State and Idaho. UH lost to Idaho and defeated Boise State on the islands in the first meeting but all that matters to the Warriors is winning two games this week and they’re in the conference tournament.

Idaho, 13-15 (4-10)

The week’s results:  02/24 L @ New Mexico State, 74-57, 02/27 L @ Louisiana Tech, 60-49

Upcoming games:  03/04 vs. San Jose State, 03/06 vs. Hawai’i

After looking like they had earned themselves a spot in the conference tournament, the Vandals are in danger of missing it after getting swept on the road at New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech. Combined with stunning victories by Hawai’i vs. Nevada and Boise State at Louisiana Tech, the Vandals have just a one-game lead over the two schools with two games left to play. Idaho will host San Jose State and Hawai’i. The Vandals just need one victory to earn their spot in the conference tournament, however, they would certainly want to win both to ensure they don’t drop to the eighth seed and have to face Utah State or New Mexico State in the first round.

Louisiana Tech, 22-7 (9-5)

The week’s results:  02/25 L vs. Boise State, 72-59, 02/27 W vs. Idaho, 60-49

Upcoming games:  03/04 @ Fresno State, 03/06 @ Nevada

The Bulldogs finish the week on the road visiting Fresno State and Nevada with a chance to lock up the third seed in the conference tournament. Louisiana Tech was stunned by Boise State and dropped into fourth place but they were aided when Hawai’i returned the favor against Nevada to tie things up between the Wolf Pack and Bulldogs.

Nevada 17-11 (9-5)

The week’s results:  02/25 W @ San Jose State, 83-79, 02/28 L @ Hawai’i, 74-63

Upcoming games:  03/04 vs. New Mexico State, 03/06 vs. Louisiana Tech

The Wolf Pack split a pair of road games last week but are assured a top four finish in the conference. Nevada can lock up second place in the league behind Utah State if they can take care of business at home against New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech.

New Mexico State (19-9, 11-3)

The week’s results:  02/24 W vs. Idaho, 74-57, 02/27 W vs. Boise State, 95-92

Upcoming games:  03/04 @ Nevada, 03/06 @ Utah State

New Mexico State took care of business at home last week to set themselves up for one of the biggest road trips they’ve had in a long time. A pair of wins would give the Aggies a share of the regular season title with Utah State and the number one overall seed in the WAC tournament. A split would give them second place in the league but a pair of losses could potentially drop them to the three seed.

San Jose State 14-14 (6-8)

The week’s results:  02/25 L vs. Nevada, 83-79, 02/27 W vs. Fresno State, 72-45

Upcoming games:  03/04 @ Idaho, 03/06 @ Boise State

The Spartans split a pair last week but moved up to fifth place in the league where they’ll look to stay with a pair of games at Idaho and at Boise State. SJSU is looking for their best conference record and finish in over ten seasons. Should the Spartans lose both games they could potentially drop to the seven seed.

Utah State, 24-6 (13-2)

The week’s results:  02/25 W @ Hawai’i, 61-50, 03/01 W vs. Fresno State, 76-39

Upcoming games: 03/06 vs. New Mexico State

The UtAgs clinched at least a share of the WAC’s regular season title for the third consecutive season with a pair of victories over Hawai’i and Fresno State. Utah State will look to win the title outright as they host New Mexico State on Saturday. The crimson Aggies are one of only two losses suffered by Utah State in conference play this season. The UtAgs have already avenged their only other loss when they defeated Louisiana Tech.

UPCOMING GAMES

• 03/04 – Nevada vs. New Mexico State – 7:00 p.m. PT
• 03/04 – Idaho vs. San Jose State – 7:00 p.m. PT
• 03/04 – Boise State vs. Hawai’i – 7:00 p.m. MT
• 03/04 – Fresno State vs. Louisiana Tech – 7:00 p.m. PT
• 03/06 – Boise State vs. San Jose State – 3:15 p.m. MT
• 03/06 – Idaho vs. Hawai’i – 5:00 p.m. PT
• 03/06 – Utah State vs. New Mexico State – 7:00 p.m.
• 03/06 – Nevada vs. Louisiana Tech – 8:00 p.m. PT

Jason Prziborowski is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference.

The big thing from the past week:

Hummel-less Purdue headed for free fall? Robbie Hummel tore his ACL against Minnesota last week, and now he is out for the season. Purdue hasn’t been the same since. Hummel was the second leading scorer and the leader of the Boilermakers, a void that has yet to be filled. Purdue survived against Minnesota, but couldn’t repeat the same result against Michigan State. How will Purdue respond in the postseason to his injury?

Now four Big Ten teams are in the top 25: #6 Ohio State, #7 Purdue, #11 Michigan State, and #15 Wisconsin.

Power Rankings

1. Ohio State 24-7, 14-4
2. Purdue 24-4, 12-4
3. Michigan State 22-7, 12-4
4. Wisconsin 21-7, 11-5
5. Illinois 18-12, 10-7
6. Northwestern 18-11, 7-10
7. Minnesota 17-12, 8-9
8. Michigan 14-15, 7-10
9. Iowa 10-19, 4-12
10. Penn State 11-17, 3-13
11. Indiana 9-19, 3-13

Coming Up

• Indiana @ Purdue – March 3rd – 6:30 ET – Nobody expected their last matchup to be a 3-point thriller, but this is a cross-state rivalry that has endured no matter how each team is doing. Indiana has never really recovered from that last loss to Purdue, but maybe this is the game they need to salvage their season. Purdue is reeling from the loss of Robbie Hummel and this is the type of game they need to win to figure out just how good they will be come tournament time.
• Michigan @ Michigan State – March 7th – 4:00 ET – Don’t underestimate this intrastate rivalry, even though Michigan State has dominated the series in recent years. Their first meeting was a one-point thriller won by Michigan State; this one is the end of the regular season for both teams, so this is their last chance to prove themselves before the Big Ten Tournament.
• Wisconsin @ Illinois – March 7th – 12:00 ET – Their last matchup was a big Illinois upset over Wisconsin at the Kohl Center, but this one could be much different. Illinois has struggled of late, losing to Minnesota in addition to OSU and Purdue. Wisconsin, on the other hand, has been playing extremely well, especially with Jon Leuer starting to get his groove back. Illinois has played well at home this year, so that could be the advantage they need to win this one.

Breaking It Down

• Ohio State downs Michigan State and Illinois, good enough to share. Ohio State has done everything they could lately by winning their last four in the Big Ten, including a big win at Michigan State. They got a little help of their own this past week when the Spartans took down the Boilers, leading to a possible three-way tie for first place in the Big Ten. Evan Turner joined forces with William Buford and Dallas Lauderdale to take down Michigan. Turner was his usual self, taking over at times, but also making the rest of the team better. Most impressive has been the play of Lauderdale, dunking his way to 14 points against the Wolverines. Jon Diebler hasn’t been too shabby either, pouring in 21 points all from long range against Illinois.
• Purdue should get a share of the Big Ten, but what happens next? Purdue had just gotten its highest ranking of the year at #3 in the country when Robbie Hummel went down, so it is even more unfortunate that the top two teams (Kansas and Kentucky) lost this past weekend before Purdue did. Now they have been leapfrogged by Syracuse and others on the way to dropping to #7, right behind OSU. In watching the Michigan State game I was curious as to who would step up for Purdue, and I think I got my answer: Chris Kramer. Kramer poured in 11 points, 5 points above his average. The downside for Purdue though is that E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson both had off games. That led to their lowest point production of the year, but more importantly, I think it left Purdue wondering what their potential is now without Hummel. They have Indiana and Penn State, two teams that might not test Purdue, but once the Big Ten Tournament begins, a new Purdue must emerge or they will be exiting the Big Dance early.
• Is Michigan State ready for the dance? Their last game was bittersweet for the Spartans. They beat Purdue at Mackey Arena, giving them a chance for a three-way tie in the Big Ten, but the way in which they won is a problem. It was rather fortunate that MSU could win a game in which they barely shot 40% from the field, 22% from long range, and committed 22 turnovers. It was partly their defense that held Purdue to 30% from the field, but it was also Purdue’s offense sans Hummel that was to blame. Raymar Morgan had a monster 16/11 game and Draymond Green’s 12/11 game wasn’t bad either. The problem for the Spartans had to do with Kalin Lucas and the rest of the team. Lucas was responsible for eight turnovers to go with his eight points, so he will need to cut down on that before the Spartans head into the postseason. MSU should handle Penn State and Michigan, but consistency is an issue with this team.
• Wisconsin blowing away the bottom. Since their unexpected loss to Minnesota on the road, Wisconsin has been getting it done against teams they should be beating. It’s a little hard to say if they are back to their pre-Jon Leuer broken wrist shape or not, but all signs are pointing to yes. Jon Leuer himself is getting more comfortable and is close to putting up the same type of numbers as he was before the injury. Just tracking his games shows that he is getting close in terms of points: four against Minnesota, 11 against Northwestern, and 13 against Indiana. More impressively and demonstrating his impact on defense is his progression of blocks: one against Minnesota, three against Northwestern, and four against Indiana. Trevon Hughes hasn’t been a slouch either, taking over against Indiana while going 3-4 from long range. They have Iowa and then Illinois to close out the regular season before the Big Ten Tournament.
• Can Illinois stop the slide and go to the dance? Illinois has now lost four out of their last five games, including two against OSU and Purdue. Those games were somewhat expected, but the real killer was the Minnesota game. They should have been beaten Minnesota, especially at home, but that was a game that really hurt their postseason chances and added a layer of pressure that they really didn’t need going into their last regular season game against Wisconsin. Demetri McCamey really struggled against Minnesota, but at least he showed the type of offensive aggressiveness that they need from him. I think he could lay off a couple of threes and take it to the basket a little more. He actually played very well against OSU, putting up the type of numbers they need from him. Unfortunately they couldn’t stop Evan Turner and that was the reason why they lost. They will need to bring everything to beat a team in Wisconsin that is starting to heat up.
• Oh where, oh where, has Northwestern gone? Northwestern took care of business against Iowa behind a 29-point effort from John Shurna. The Iowa game was payback for an earlier loss that took away their tournament hopes. That was the high note for the past week, as they took a shellacking from Penn State and Talor Battle next. The question of that game was, John Shurna, where did you go? Shurna struggled from the field on his way to nine points, and fortunately for the Wildcats, Michael Thompson really picked it up on his way to 21 points and was the only player to score in double figures. That’s the type of consistency that has plagued Northwestern during their losses. Next up is Chicago State before closing out their regular season on the road against Indiana. They will be going somewhere in the postseason — it just won’t be the Big Dance.
• The peaks and valleys of Minnesota’s season. Minnesota was making a strong push to finish out the season and maybe trying to surprise some teams in the Big Ten Tournament, but then the wheels just fell off against Michigan. Minnesota has proved they can play with the big dogs in Purdue and Wisconsin, but then they have also lost to the likes of Indiana and now Michigan twice, the second being a blowout. Devoe Joseph and Lawrence Westbrook led the Gophers against Illinois, but it was all Damian Johnson and Colton Iverson in their loss to Michigan. You just never know what you are going to get from this team, as they continue to prove. I am sure Tubby Smith is looking to next year so he can get some sleep at night.
• Michigan snaps its third three game losing streak of the season. Michigan has struggled of late, not being able to get more than two guys on the scoreboard. That all changed during their blowout of Minnesota at home, putting up 83 points, their biggest total of the Big Ten season. It happened that Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims both lit it up on the same night, while getting help from Stu Douglass as well. The key to the win, though, was that Harris drove to the basket much more than normal, beating his man for easy layups. That high percentage and not relying on the long range shots led Michigan to a scorching 60.4% from the field. That’s what they should have been doing all year. They could be dangerous come Big Ten Tournament time. They close out at Michigan State before then.
• Iowa sweeps Indiana. Iowa was supposed to be the team that Indiana should beat, but the Hawkeyes didn’t agree. They swept the Hoosiers and passed them in the standings, ensuring a good possibility of avoiding the bottom of the Big Ten to end the year. Matt Gatens was sensational for Iowa, dropping 25 points on the Hoosiers. They also got their usual performance from Aaron Fuller inside, and that’s all it took to take down Indiana. It will be a rough journey ahead for the Hawkeyes as they finish their season on the road against Wisconsin and Minnesota, as both teams that play very well at home.
• The Lions bury the Cats. All I have to say here is, who knew? Penn State couldn’t win a game in the Big Ten all year, and now they have won three of four. They have distributed the scoring load which has really helped them not have to rely entirely on scoring from Talor Battle. They have two tough teams coming up in Michigan State and Purdue, but they could upset one of them, as their last matchup against MSU was close. They play a different Purdue team this time at home though, so maybe they could be a spoiler.
• Indiana’s loses the fight along with their confidence. Count them, ten straight losses for Indiana, and the formula has been pretty clear lately. Indiana sticks around in the first half, or at least for the first 10 minutes, and then lets the other teams pull away, never to be seen again. Indiana is throwing the ball away close to 20 times a game, including a lot of unforced turnovers. The most exciting moment for Indiana in the past week is the first ejection of their coach, Tom Crean. The crowd loved it and was chanting Crean’s name. Too bad for the Hoosiers, Crean isn’t able to suit up, as it is now evident that he has a lot more passion than the young Hoosiers, who have packed it in since their game at home against Purdue. There is some hope that Indiana could come alive against Purdue, but most fans have given up on this team for the year.

RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every week until Madness ensues.

Only 11 days until the brackets are revealed. This calls for another bubble update. Here are the teams joining the esteemed lock category this week:

Clemson– The Tigers avoided a late-season collapse and secured a bid last night with their win over Georgia Tech. The Sunday night road win at Florida State was also of great importance. Clemson now has five wins vs. the RPI top-50 and guaranteed themselves an above .500 record in the ACC.

Marquette– The Golden Eagles finally didn’t play a nail-biter last night, instead blowing out Louisville in exclamatory fashion. Marquette is now 11-6 in the Big East with a home game vs. Notre Dame remaining. The committee won’t deny an 11-win Big East team.

California– I have a hard time seeing the committee leaving a regular season champion of a Power 6 conference out of the NCAA Tournament. The Pac-10 will be a two-bid league if anyone else wins the conference tournament next week.

Northern Iowa– The RPI remains very high (20) and the Panthers dominated the Missouri Valley from start to finish. Even with an early loss in St. Louis, they won’t fall enough to lose out on a bid.

Atlantic 10

Locks: Xavier, Temple, Richmond

Rhode Island (35 RPI, 67 SOS)– The Rams have lost four of five at the least opportune time and now face the realistic possibility of another February collapse to the NIT. The loss on Saturday at St. Bonaventure was an absolute killer. Rhode Island features just two wins vs. the RPI top-50 and their best non-conference win came in a virtual home game with Oklahoma State. They face a must-win scenario tonight at home against Charlotte in a virtual elimination game. With the bubble only shrinking in the coming days, this is a make-or-break game for the Rams unless they win the A-10 Tournament.

Dayton (41 RPI, 37 SOS)– The Flyers did defeat Georgia Tech, Old Dominion and Xavier this season, but close losses at the hands of New Mexico, Duquesne, Rhode Island and St. Louis are really hurting their chances. Dayton has now dropped out of a large majority of projected brackets and faces a daunting task tonight at Richmond. If they’re able to overcome their road woes and take down the Spiders, Dayton would be a candidate to re-claim a bid. If not, they’ll need to win a handful of games in Atlantic City next week. The Flyers are just 5-8 vs. the RPI top-100.

Charlotte (62 RPI, 111 SOS)– Despite the 9-5 conference mark, the 49ers resume is looking weaker and weaker by the day. They were blown out by Duke, Old Dominion and Tennessee in non-conference play and have recently lost four of five, including Duquesne at home and at George Washington. The computer numbers are also tanking. The opportunity is present, though, to creep back. Charlotte’s final two games are at Rhode Island and home vs. Richmond. At the very worst, they need to split those two games and make the A-10 Tournament finals with just four wins vs. the RPI top-100.

ACC

Locks: Duke, Maryland, Clemson

Wake Forest (29 RPI, 34 SOS)– The Deacons looked to be safe just a mere ten days ago, but two stunning defeats at the hands of ACC bottom-feeders NC State and North Carolina are reminding Wake fans of their teams’ stunning collapse last season. Don’t fret too much: Wake has a handful of quality wins- at Gonzaga, Richmond, Xavier, Maryland, Georgia Tech- and a respectable RPI/SOS. All the Deacons have to do is win more game and they’re in, whether it comes at Florida State tonight, home vs. Clemson on Sunday night or in the first round of the ACC Tournament.

Georgia Tech (33 RPI, 22 SOS)– The RPI/SOS and four wins vs. the RPI top-50 are nice, but there’s certainly holes in the Jackets portfolio. Their best non-conference wins came over USC and Charlotte and the yo-yo ACC season continued last night with a blowout loss at Clemson, dropping Georgia Tech back under .500 in the ACC. Paul Hewitt won’t have to sweat out Selection Sunday if they just take care of business Saturday at home against fellow bubble squad Virginia Tech. 8-8 in the ACC with wins over Duke, Clemson and Wake Forest should be enough for a bid, even if a double-digit seed is likely.

Florida State (42 RPI, 49 SOS)– If one looks closer at the Seminoles overall portfolio, it’s glaringly unimpressive. They have two wins vs. the RPI top-50- a sweep of Georgia Tech. They have one quality non-conference win on a neutral floor against Marquette. Luckily for Leonard Hamilton, Florida State did win the majority of games they were supposed to and also knocked off fellow ACC bubble team Virginia Tech in Tallahassee. The last two games- Wake Forest and at Miami- also lean towards the favorable side. The ‘Noles should probably win both to feel safe, but even am 9-7 ACC mark might be enough as long as they are not upset in the opening round of the ACC Tournament.

FSU faces Wake tonight in one of many big games

Virginia Tech (52 RPI, 157 SOS)– The Hokies have lost three in a row in late February to put themselves in a precarious position. The defeats at Duke and in double-OT to Maryland are excusable, but the 20-point blowout at Boston College is one the committee won’t overlook. We’ve beaten the horrid non-conference schedule to death, a factor that will prove as an anchor to their resume on Selection Sunday. Virginia Tech needs to win twice to make absolutely sure of a spot in the field. It starts tonight with NC State in Blacksburg. Win that and split their final two games- at Georgia Tech and ACC Tournament first round- and Seth Greenberg can breathe a sigh of relief.

Big 12

Locks: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State

Read the rest of this entry »

Michael Hurley is the RTC correspondent for the Patriot League and America East Conference.

Patriot League Tournament

In a league in which the first five teams finished within three games of each other any team could win three games in a row to secure the NCAA bid. Lehigh was the best team throughout the year with a 10-4 record. If they face Navy in the semis there could be problems posed after dropping both against the Midshipmen this year. American could also beat Navy and ride the hot hand of Vlad Moldoveanu as far as he will take them. Holy Cross has a lot of skill for a #7 seeded team, but who knows if Coach Kearny can get them to perform. Lafayette faded huge down the stretch, but started out 5-1 in conference. Any of the teams could end up hosting the Patriot League trophy at the end of the tournament, but I will go with Lehigh, the favorite, to win it. Tune in for the league championship on ESPN2 on March 12 at 4:45 pm.

First Round Matchups

• #8 (14-14, 4-10) Army at #1 (19-10, 10-4) Lehigh – 03/03/10 Wednesday 7 pm.  Lehigh should roll in this game against Army. Every victory Lehigh has had this year has been by double figures including both over Army. The matchup problem comes in the second round. If Navy manages to beat American, Lehigh will not be pleased. Navy beat Lehigh as many times this year as the rest of the league combined.
• #7 (8-21, 5-9) Holy Cross at #2 (14-16, 9-5) Bucknell – 03/03/10 Wednesday 7 pm.  If Holy Cross can put together some defense this game they stand a good chance. The Crusaders beat Bucknell once at home, but lost in mid-February on the road. It seems that the Crusaders just never bought into Kearny’s system, so it will be hard to start in the playoffs. Especially after dropping four of the last five in the regular season.
• #6 (10-18, 6-8) Colgate at #3 (17-12, 8-6) Lafayette – 03/03/10 Wednesday 7 pm.  The away team came away with a victory in each of the games this year between these two teams. Colgate’s win over Lafayette was only one of three home losses on the year for the Leopards. It was also only one of three home victories on the road for the Raiders. I can see Lafayette continuing their second half swoon and dropping this first rounder.
• #5 (13-16, 7-7) Navy at #4 (10-19, 7-7) American – 03/03/10 Wednesday 7:30 pm.  American came out on top of both matchups during the regular season including a 80-77 overtime victory at Navy during the last week in February. Moldoveanu hit the go ahead layup, but a huge game out of Stephen Lumpkins won the Eagles that game. Moldoveanu scored 37 points the first time the two teams met. Navy is only 3-10 on the road this year, so the home court advantage was huge for American. The Eagles come in having won three out of their last four while Navy has dropped three in a row. American, 8-0, has never lost in a first round matchup since joining the league in 2002. Expect the Eagles to continue to live on.

Award Winners

Read the rest of this entry »