RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every week until Madness ensues.

Only 11 days until the brackets are revealed. This calls for another bubble update. Here are the teams joining the esteemed lock category this week:

Clemson– The Tigers avoided a late-season collapse and secured a bid last night with their win over Georgia Tech. The Sunday night road win at Florida State was also of great importance. Clemson now has five wins vs. the RPI top-50 and guaranteed themselves an above .500 record in the ACC.

Marquette– The Golden Eagles finally didn’t play a nail-biter last night, instead blowing out Louisville in exclamatory fashion. Marquette is now 11-6 in the Big East with a home game vs. Notre Dame remaining. The committee won’t deny an 11-win Big East team.

California– I have a hard time seeing the committee leaving a regular season champion of a Power 6 conference out of the NCAA Tournament. The Pac-10 will be a two-bid league if anyone else wins the conference tournament next week.

Northern Iowa– The RPI remains very high (20) and the Panthers dominated the Missouri Valley from start to finish. Even with an early loss in St. Louis, they won’t fall enough to lose out on a bid.

Atlantic 10

Locks: Xavier, Temple, Richmond

Rhode Island (35 RPI, 67 SOS)– The Rams have lost four of five at the least opportune time and now face the realistic possibility of another February collapse to the NIT. The loss on Saturday at St. Bonaventure was an absolute killer. Rhode Island features just two wins vs. the RPI top-50 and their best non-conference win came in a virtual home game with Oklahoma State. They face a must-win scenario tonight at home against Charlotte in a virtual elimination game. With the bubble only shrinking in the coming days, this is a make-or-break game for the Rams unless they win the A-10 Tournament.

Dayton (41 RPI, 37 SOS)– The Flyers did defeat Georgia Tech, Old Dominion and Xavier this season, but close losses at the hands of New Mexico, Duquesne, Rhode Island and St. Louis are really hurting their chances. Dayton has now dropped out of a large majority of projected brackets and faces a daunting task tonight at Richmond. If they’re able to overcome their road woes and take down the Spiders, Dayton would be a candidate to re-claim a bid. If not, they’ll need to win a handful of games in Atlantic City next week. The Flyers are just 5-8 vs. the RPI top-100.

Charlotte (62 RPI, 111 SOS)– Despite the 9-5 conference mark, the 49ers resume is looking weaker and weaker by the day. They were blown out by Duke, Old Dominion and Tennessee in non-conference play and have recently lost four of five, including Duquesne at home and at George Washington. The computer numbers are also tanking. The opportunity is present, though, to creep back. Charlotte’s final two games are at Rhode Island and home vs. Richmond. At the very worst, they need to split those two games and make the A-10 Tournament finals with just four wins vs. the RPI top-100.

ACC

Locks: Duke, Maryland, Clemson

Wake Forest (29 RPI, 34 SOS)– The Deacons looked to be safe just a mere ten days ago, but two stunning defeats at the hands of ACC bottom-feeders NC State and North Carolina are reminding Wake fans of their teams’ stunning collapse last season. Don’t fret too much: Wake has a handful of quality wins- at Gonzaga, Richmond, Xavier, Maryland, Georgia Tech- and a respectable RPI/SOS. All the Deacons have to do is win more game and they’re in, whether it comes at Florida State tonight, home vs. Clemson on Sunday night or in the first round of the ACC Tournament.

Georgia Tech (33 RPI, 22 SOS)– The RPI/SOS and four wins vs. the RPI top-50 are nice, but there’s certainly holes in the Jackets portfolio. Their best non-conference wins came over USC and Charlotte and the yo-yo ACC season continued last night with a blowout loss at Clemson, dropping Georgia Tech back under .500 in the ACC. Paul Hewitt won’t have to sweat out Selection Sunday if they just take care of business Saturday at home against fellow bubble squad Virginia Tech. 8-8 in the ACC with wins over Duke, Clemson and Wake Forest should be enough for a bid, even if a double-digit seed is likely.

Florida State (42 RPI, 49 SOS)– If one looks closer at the Seminoles overall portfolio, it’s glaringly unimpressive. They have two wins vs. the RPI top-50- a sweep of Georgia Tech. They have one quality non-conference win on a neutral floor against Marquette. Luckily for Leonard Hamilton, Florida State did win the majority of games they were supposed to and also knocked off fellow ACC bubble team Virginia Tech in Tallahassee. The last two games- Wake Forest and at Miami- also lean towards the favorable side. The ‘Noles should probably win both to feel safe, but even am 9-7 ACC mark might be enough as long as they are not upset in the opening round of the ACC Tournament.

FSU faces Wake tonight in one of many big games

Virginia Tech (52 RPI, 157 SOS)– The Hokies have lost three in a row in late February to put themselves in a precarious position. The defeats at Duke and in double-OT to Maryland are excusable, but the 20-point blowout at Boston College is one the committee won’t overlook. We’ve beaten the horrid non-conference schedule to death, a factor that will prove as an anchor to their resume on Selection Sunday. Virginia Tech needs to win twice to make absolutely sure of a spot in the field. It starts tonight with NC State in Blacksburg. Win that and split their final two games- at Georgia Tech and ACC Tournament first round- and Seth Greenberg can breathe a sigh of relief.

Big 12

Locks: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State

Big East

Locks: Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette

Louisville (32 RPI, 6 SOS)– The fashion in which they lost at Marquette Tuesday night surely didn’t impress the committee, so there’s still a decent possibility Rick Pitino is sweating it out next Sunday. The Cardinals boast a signature win that no other bubble team can top- at Syracuse- and welcome the Orange into Freedom Hall for its swan song Saturday afternoon. Sweep the season series with Syracuse and they’re in the field. Lose and the situation becomes dicey. A 10-8 Big East record, the high RPI, the aforementioned Syracuse win and a sweep of Connecticut are factors nudging the Cardinals in the bracket. They’ll likely need to win twice in New York to feel absolutely safe.

Connecticut (45 RPI, 2 SOS)– The good news is that Connecticut boasts three top-25 wins at Villanova, vs. West Virginia and vs. Texas, a feat pretty much no other bubble team can match. The bad news is a 7-9 Big East mark hurt by losses at Providence and a 0-2 record against Cincinnati with two road games to finish the docket at Notre Dame and at South Florida. A loss tonight in South Bend may knock the Huskies out of the projected field temporarily, but they still have a shot to play their way into one of the final spots with a win at USF and two wins in the Big East Tournament. A win tonight, though, would be enormous. Not only would it prove the likely death blow for fellow Big East bubble team Notre Dame, it moves Connecticut closer to safe status on the heels of those quality wins.

Notre Dame (68 RPI, 62 SOS)– The Irish were proclaimed dead by most following their home loss to St. John’s and Luke Harangody’s lingering knee injury, but Mike Brey has rallied the troops to two season-saving wins over Pitt and Georgetown in the last week. Couple those two wins with an earlier victory vs. West Virginia, and the Irish jumped into my projected field last Monday. They’d fall right back out with a home loss tonight to Connecticut and may remain NIT-bound with their season finale at Marquette. Notre Dame’s woeful RPI/SOS and pitiful non-conference resume (St. Louis and UCLA = best wins) certainly are not helping their cause.

Big Ten

Locks: Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin

Illinois (72 RPI, 51 SOS)– The Illini have one of the more confusing resumes I can ever remember and could give the selection committee a collective headache. The RPI/SOS and bad losses to Utah, Bradley, Northwestern and Minnesota screams NIT, but the young Illini also beat Vanderbilt, Michigan State, took Gonzaga to OT and won true road games at Clemson and Wisconsin. Bruce Weber’s squad has a crucial game this Sunday at home against Wisconsin. A season sweep of the Badgers and an 11-7 Big Ten record will likely prove worthy of an NCAA bid. Lose and Illinois backs into the Big Ten Tournament having lost five of six and would need another scalp for their portfolio.

It's been a tough stretch for DJ Richardson and the Illini

Mountain West

Locks: New Mexico, BYU, UNLV

San Diego State (39 RPI, 56 SOS)– The Aztecs were the only team Monday where Lunardi differed with my bracket. He likely pointed to the #39 RPI, while I focused more on Notre Dame’s quality wins as my reasoning. It will come down to the Mountain West Tournament for Steve Fisher’s team. Their final two games vs. Colorado State and at Air Force won’t help their portfolio in any way. The Aztecs need to advance to the finals as a #4 seed, meaning they’d have to beat New Mexico in the semifinals, to earn a spot in the Dance. They knocked off the Lobos by 10 on January 5.

Pac-10

Locks: California

Arizona State (53 RPI, 74 SOS)– The only way I see the Sun Devils maintaining any chance is if they win every game up to the Pac-10 Tournament finals. That would mean finishing the regular season with a sweep of USC and UCLA in Tempe and winning a couple contests in Los Angeles. Arizona State is a rather pathetic 1-5 vs. the RPI top-50 and 3-7 vs. the RPI top-100. The Pac-10 just didn’t present many opportunities to enhance portfolios. They do have a December win over San Diego State by three.

SEC

Locks: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee

Florida (48 RPI, 59 SOS)– The Gators lost a crucial game Tuesday night at home against Vanderbilt. A win would have put them firmly into the field, but the opportunity was wasted. Now they finish their SEC season at Kentucky in what seems like a certain tally in the loss column. The Gators boast November wins over Michigan State and Florida State, a blowout of Tennessee last week and victories over SEC bubble teams Mississippi State and Mississippi. It’ll come down to the SEC Tournament for Florida in their quest to avoid the NIT for the third straight season.

Mississippi (53 RPI, 63 SOS)– This is another team whose fate will be determined at the SEC Tournament. The Rebels kept their hopes alive with a road win at Alabama on Saturday and now face two more must-win games vs. LSU and at Arkansas to conclude the regular season. Ole Miss is just 2-6 vs. the RPI top-50 but do have a November win over likely-#2 seed Kansas State on a neutral floor. The sweep at the hands of rival and fellow bubble team Mississippi State certainly puts a damper on their portfolio.

Mississippi State (54 RPI, 126 SOS)– The Bulldogs were my last team in the field Monday. Their final two games- at Auburn and vs. Tennessee- could go either way.  A sweep would make it awfully hard for the committee to deny a 11-5 SEC team in the dance, but I could see them sending Mississippi State NIT-bound if they were to split and lose in their first SEC Tournament game. The Bulldogs swept Ole Miss and won at South Carolina, but don’t have much in terms of quality wins (1-4 vs. the RPI top-50) and their SOS is atrocious. The Tennessee game is absolutely crucial.

Others

Locks: Butler, Northern Iowa, Gonzaga

Utah State (32 RPI, 96 SOS)– The Aggies haven’t lost since January 4, boast a stellar RPI and beat BYU at home back in early December, so the case for an at-large bid can be made. They also own just two wins vs. the RPI top-50 and suffered a handful of bad losses during non-conference play. Put me down for Utah State receiving serious at-large consideration if they reach the WAC Finals. Teams with an RPI that high are rarely left out of the Dance. A five-point home loss to St. Mary’s could hurt if that type of scenario does emerge. The likely bid-stealers out of the WAC could be New Mexico State, Nevada and Louisiana Tech.

UAB (34 RPI, 112 SOS)– Destiny is in their hands. The Blazers of course have the C-USA Tournament as a possibility if all goes awry, but here’s how I see this last week- Memphis, at UTEP- shaping up for UAB. If they lose both games, they have to win the conference tournament. Win at UTEP, regardless of what happens against Memphis, and UAB is bubble-in but still feeling nervous. Win both games and the Blazers are in the field. Their December win over Butler keeps looking stronger.

Old Dominion (39 RPI, 78 SOS)– The Monarchs need to reach the CAA Finals in my estimation. They had plenty of chances out-of-conference to knock off bubble teams and fell in nearly every chance- vs. Missouri, vs. Mississippi State, at Dayton and also at Richmond. They also lost at Northern Iowa in BracketBusters and are just 1-4 vs. the RPI top-50. Obviously the win at Georgetown stands out as their signature victory. ODU won a competitive CAA regular season title at 15-3.

Siena (40 RPI, 136 SOS)– The Saints just simply lack quality wins out-of-conference at this point. They’ve lost to Georgia Tech, Temple, Northern Iowa and Butler, putting Siena in a position where they must win the MAAC Tournament to receive a bid in all likelihood, unless the committee factors in their recent success in the NCAA Tournament. With the conference tournament in Albany, it’s going to be absolutely stunning if Siena doesn’t garner an automatic bid.

UTEP (44 RPI, 135 SOS)– The Miners just keep winning and continue to make a case for an at-large bid if they lose in Tulsa at the C-USA Tournament. If they knock off UAB at home to finish the campaign at 15-1 in conference play, the committee probably won’t deny a team that’s playing so well down the stretch. Their best non-conference wins are underwhelming, though, with wins over New Mexico State and Oklahoma.

UTEP coach Tony Barbee is inching closer to lock status

Saint Mary’s (45 RPI, 137 SOS)– What to do with the Gaels? The pluses: non-conference wins over San Diego State and at Utah State, a place where nobody wins. The minuses: another sweep by Gonzaga and a two-point loss vs. Vanderbilt the Gaels could certainly use. Saint Mary’s is in the field at this moment in time. As long as they reach the WCC Finals and don’t embarrass themselves, they should sneak in. Lose to Portland or anyone else in the semifinals and it’s going to be a long Selection Sunday.

zhayes9 (301 Posts)

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