One Pac-12 early-season tournament remains, and we break down the road ahead this Christmas for Oregon State.
What They’ve Done So Far: If you could use one word to describe the start to Oregon State‘s season, strange would fit the bill. The Beavers opened with a loss to now 4-5 Coppin State, but they were without starting forward Devon Collier, who is averaging 21.3 PPG and 9.6 RPG, who served a one game suspension because of a failed drug test administered during the summer. They have since won six of their last seven, two of which coming against possible NCAA Tournament teams in Maryland and Towson.
Combo Forward Devon Collier Has Been A Force Down Low For The Beavers So Far This Season (credit: Andy Wooldridge)
First Round Preview: The Beavers kickoff play in Honolulu on Sunday afternoon against Akron. Everything goes through senior forward Demetrius Treadwell for the Zips, who averages 14.6 PPG. But while Treadwell dominates the post, there are plenty of other targets that the soft Beaver defense will have to keep an eye on. Sophomore small forward Reggie McAdams has good range and has knocked down 12 of 25 three-point attempts for a 48% clip. Another senior big, Quincy Diggs is a top ten player in the MAC and can play any position except center. Diggs is the team’s second leading scorer, but his defense his key. When playing man, expect head coach Keith Dambrot to put him on the Beavers’ senior Roberto Nelson, who leads the team with 22.1 PPG. If the Zips have any shot of an at-large bid come March, they will need a win here, so I expect them to come out firing on all cylinders. This one should come down to a battle between Collier and Treadwell in the paint. The winner of that battle advances into the winner’s bracket. Definitely a game to watch late Sunday as you enter your Christmas vacation.
Potential Later Round Matchup: Considering the Beavers tend to play up to their competition, and that they will have a decided home court advantage with at least 300 Oregon State fans making the trip with the football team playing in the Hawaii Bowl two days later, I’m going to project a tight win and send them into a semifinal matchup, most likely against #17 Iowa State, who faces 5-4 George Mason in its opener. I don’t see the Beavs springing a Top 20 upset, however, and if the bracket holds to form, they would face Boise State in the third place game (less than 24 hours after the Beavers and Broncos meet on the gridiron across the way at Aloha Stadium). Another possible choice in that third game is Saint Mary’s, who comes to the Islands boasting a 9-0 record.
Outlook: For the Beavers to have any decent chance at the NCAA Tournament, they need two wins in Honolulu. And with teams like Southern Illinois Edwardsville and Arkansas-Pine Bluff dragging down Oregon State’s RPI, a trip to the winner’s bracket is also a must. A loss to Akron would mean George Mason on day two and most likely Hawaii in the final game, much less appealing games. You can catch Oregon State’s opener at 4:45 PM Pacific on Sunday on ESPNU.