1. This is around the time of the year when the felonies start.  We guess that players get out of school, start feeling the summer heat and lose their minds.  Or something.  UNLV’s Tre’Von Willis, a first team all-MWC junior guard last season, was arrested Tuesday on felony charges of domestic battery by strangulation and grand larceny.  The person Willis allegedly strangled was his 28-year old girlfriend, which begs the question whether Willis may have been watching old Chapelle episodes before the incident.  There’s been no comment from UNLV head coach Lon Kruger yet, but obviously Willis is a big part of what he is expecting to put on the floor next season.  It’ll be interesting to see how he handles this one.
2. We figure that you’ve been on pins and needles all summer waiting for this decision, but the WAC announced yesterday that it will not expand in 2011.  What does this mean?  Well, with the loss of Boise State to the MWC after the 2010-11 season, the WAC will operate as an eight-team league for at least one year.  How quaint — an eight-team league.
3. What, no Craigslist?  This AP report examines the secondary market for tickets to NCAA events in light of the recent Kansas scandal.  Although we didn’t know that the NCAA had embraced Razorgator as its online ticket broker, it’s nice to see folks waking up as to how many people acquire ducats to these events.
4. So how much will Colorado have to pay for the privilege of leaving the Big 12 and moving to the Pac-10?  Probably about $10M more than they expected (had the Big 12 dissolved, as they undoubtedly thought would happen).
5. Coach K will talk one-on-one with Alabama football head coach Nick Saban on Wednesday night on Sirius XM radio, and we’re half tempted to listen to it just to see if the irresistible force/immovable object thing is really true.  Well, that and to see if the Russian spies show up.

Zach Hayes is a regular RTC writer and resident bracketologist. You can follow his sports-related thoughts at Twitter.

This past weekend, the NBA Draft early entry deadline came and went. With most of the incoming freshman having decided their destination next fall (looking at you Terrence Jones) and underclassmen making their final announcements about next year’s plans, we finally have a solid sense of how the rosters will shake out for the 2010-11 college basketball season. Sounds like a fantastic time for another top 25 to me. I did my best to project each team’s starting lineup (which of course could change with injuries, suspensions, academic ineligibility, etc. from now until November) and even strapped on some predictions at the end. Enjoy.

1. Duke

Starting Lineup: G Kyrie Irving, G Nolan Smith, F Kyle Singler, F Mason Plumlee, F Miles Plumlee

The Blue Devils established themselves as the near-consensus top team as soon as Kyle Singler opted to return to Durham for another campaign. The losses of big bodies Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek could leave them a bit thin up front and slightly vulnerable against sizable opponents like Kansas State (both will participate in the CBE Classic) or ACC foe Florida State, but Mason Plumlee is a tremendous candidate to break out in his sophomore season. Jon Scheyer is replaced at the point by who scouts are saying might be the best guard to ever come out of New Jersey in Kyrie Irving. Pair him with returnee Nolan Smith and the Blue Devils are a prime candidate to push the tempo this season. Singler and Smith are both definite ACC POY candidates and Irving is the biggest recruit for Coach K since Josh McRoberts. Seth Curry was a 20+ PPG scorer at Liberty in 2008-09 and should be the first guard off the bench, while Andre Dawkins gives Coach K a deadeye shooter for crunch time. This combination of talent plus a championship trophy from April equates to an easy #1 ranking in the preseason.

2. Michigan State

Starting Lineup: G Kalin Lucas, G Durrell Summers, F Draymond Green, F Delvon Roe, C Derrick Nix

The only contributing player missing from last year’s Final Four squad is Raymar Morgan, meaning Tom Izzo is primed for another run deep into March. There are question marks- the readiness of Lucas after his devastating Achilles injury, the focus of Summers for an entire season in a loaded conference and the health of Roe up front. If Lucas returns to form, he’s an All-America candidate, while wings Summers and Chris Allen can spring for six treys on any night. Draymond Green is a bulky point-forward with an improving mid-range jumper that makes him extremely difficult to guard. The bench should also be stellar with Allen, Korie Lucious- who garnered valuable experience in place of Lucas last March- and two highly regarded recruits in Adreian Payne and Keith Appling. As usual, Izzo chose to challenge his Spartans in the preseason. They’ll head to Maui, face Syracuse in the Jimmy V and also have the Big 10/ACC Challenge contest on the docket.

3. Purdue

Starting Lineup: G Lewis Jackson, G Kelsey Barlow, G E’Twaun Moore, F Robbie Hummel, C JaJuan Johnson

The most important announcement of this past weekend was the decision of both E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson to return for their final season in West Lafayette. Both players made the right call- Johnson isn’t strong or consistent enough for the NBA and Moore may have gone undrafted. Plus, the Boilers have a decent shot at bringing home a national title next April. Robbie Hummel is way ahead of schedule recovering from his knee injury and Lewis Jackson will have a full season to blossom without any foot injury hindrances. Matt Painter will miss the leadership and work of lockdown perimeter defender Chris Kramer, but there’s more than enough production on both ends to contemplate beating out Michigan State and Ohio State for a conference title. Look for Kelsey Barlow to step in at Keaton Grant’s spot in the lineup, but I also wouldn’t count out incoming freshman Terone Johnson earning substantial minutes.

4. Kansas State

Starting Lineup: G Jacob Pullen, G Rodney McGruder, F Dominique Sutton, F Curtis Kelly, F Jamar Samuels

I’m not trying to underestimate the value of Denis Clemente to the Wildcats, but Frank Martin’s team could be even better protecting the Octagon of Doom than last season. Nobody will be out-manning or out-working Kansas State on the boards this season. They feature an assembly line of big bodies that can dominate the backboards and score respectably with UConn transfer Curtis Kelly being the most skilled. Jacob Pullen enters his senior season as the frontrunner for Big 12 Player of the Year and could be a First Team All-American. Pullen has tremendous range on his jumper, but the blow-by-ability (h/t Clark Kellogg) is also sensational. Look for athletic freak Wally Judge to break out in a big way during his sophomore campaign.

5. Villanova

Starting Lineup: G Maalik Wayns, G Corey Fisher, G Corey Stokes, F Antonio Pena, F Mouphtaou Yarou

I started this Top 25 thinking Villanova would be right around the #10-#13 range. After all, they lost clutch extraordinaire and four-year team leader Scottie Reynolds. But they kept moving up my rankings, mostly because I loved what I saw from Maalik Wayns in short spurts last season. He’s the next great Villanova guard and a clone of former Wildcat Kyle Lowry with even better passing ability. Corey Fisher is more than capable of running the Nova offense and could lead the Big East in free throws attempted. No guard duo will get to the line more often than Wayns and Fisher, plus Stokes provides a kick-out dimension for open threes. The frontline should be respectable led by much-improved Antonio Pena and the bench is capable with Dominic Cheek, Taylor King and Isaiah Armwood all bringing different facets to the table. Villanova is the best team in the Big East.

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1. Iowa State is set to hire former Cyclone star Fred Hoiberg as its new head coach after Greg McDermott took off earlier this week for greener pastures in Omaha.  “The Mayor” is a legend at ISU, but he’s never coached at any level of basketball before so this hire is raising some eyebrows.  The Big 12 is no place to learn on the fly, after all.  Gary Parrish thinks this move is either brilliant or imbecilic, but he makes a comparison to John McCain picking Sarah Palin as his veep and we know how well that gamble worked out.
2. In an effort to increase Pac-10 representation in future NCAA Tournaments, the University of Washington got its man into the catbird seat at the NCAA yesterday, as UW president Mark Emmert will take over for Jim Isch as the next president of the NCAA.  We were obviously joking about the above comment, but now, how does he feel about expansion?
3. We’re going to see a lot of these types of articles in the next two weeks discussing  those players who are in the NBA Draft pool who should return to school next season.  Here are a couple that are already out — Mike DeCourcy’s five players who should return (M. Delaney, M. Davis, J. Crawford, S. Samuels, G. Hayward) and Luke Winn’s ten teams awaiting decisions (with a healthy implication that most should return).
4. UNLV’s Matt Shaw, a key junior forward who started a handful of games for Lon Kruger’s NCAA Tournament team this year, has tested positive for a banned substance and has been suspended for the entirety of next year, his senior season.
5. Are there NCAA violations pending at UConn this spring?  According to this Wall Street Journal article, an NCAA source has stated that the university is facing a report on violations which is due to be released soon.  Furthermore, despite repeated admonitions to the contrary, head coach Jim Calhoun still doesn’t have a signed and sealed contract.  His current deal is set to expire at the end of June.

Andrew Murawa is the RTC correspondent for the Pac-10 and Mountain West Conferences and an occasional contributor.

Overview

College sports fans dodged a major bullet last week when the NCAA announced that the men’s basketball tournament would only be expanding to 68 entrants, rather than the 96-team field that had been widely rumored. However, the face of college sports as we know it is still in jeopardy, as the specter of widespread conference realignment still looms, with the much-speculated-upon expansion of the Big Ten as the key domino that could start a wave of changes leaving the college sports landscape drastically altered.

The elephant in the room issue is the consolidation of power away from the existing six BCS conferences and into a smaller number of “superconferences” with the possibility looming that once any realignment sorts itself out and we’ve got four 16-team conferences, those conferences break away from the NCAA and form their own structure. As Kansas athletic director Lew Perkins puts it: “At some time, the major conferences are going to have their own quasi-NCAA. They’re going to do their own thing.” Former Syracuse AD Jake Crouthamel was even more specific, saying that eventually the Big Ten, ACC, SEC and Pac-10 would expand and ultimately leave the NCAA, even to the point of forming their own competing basketball tournament: “If you look at the history of what’s been going on for the last decade, I think it’s leading in that direction.”

We Promise It Won't Get This Complicated

The potential expansion of conferences detailed below is not the first shot fired in the consolidation of power, but the next step in an already-existing series of moves that has widened the financial gap between the biggest athletic departments and the rest of the supporting cast. And, as those at the top get bigger and bigger, the underdogs not only fall behind in terms of funding, but they may ultimately be left completely behind: no more Boise State and Utah to steal BCS bowl spots from big-money institutions during the winter, and no more Butler and George Mason sneaking into the Final Four in the spring. While that type of doomsday scenario is still several decision points down the line, what happens in the Big Ten over the next twelve months or so could be the monumental tipping point to drastically move things in that direction.

At present, the most widely rumored targets for Big Ten expansion are Pittsburgh, Rutgers and Syracuse from the Big East and Nebraska and Missouri from the Big 12, although as always occurs when the Big Ten thinks about expansion, Notre Dame is in the mix and likely their number one choice. With the Pac-10 also in the midst of contemplating expansion within the next year, these moves could send a ripple effect throughout all of the Division I conferences causing some conferences to get bigger, others to contract, and even some to disappear.  While the specifics remain conjecture and speculation at this point, there are enough common-sense scenarios out there to fuel theories to create one of the most helter-skelter flowcharts ever seen. We’ll take a look conference-by-conference at what could happen, and what kind of fallout might be created by each move, starting with our eleven midwestern friends.

Big Ten

Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany confirmed last Wednesday that his conference is considering not only expanding to 12, but also perhaps even 14 or 16 teams. While some of the rationale for the expansion would be the addition of a football championship game for more revenue, the accumulation of more content and more markets for the Big Ten Network is probably more important to their plans. Delany noted that while discussions for this expansion are ongoing, the 12-18 month timetable that was originally announced in December is still the current framework.

Starting with the first domino, there is little doubt that the Fighting Irish would be the Big Ten’s first choice and the most logical fit for the conference, in terms of geography, academics and, frankly, football. Notre Dame and the Big Ten have flirted with each other many times in the past, but there is likely a greater chance that they will consummate their relationship this time around than any time before. For the Big Ten, the attraction is obvious: a huge fan base in historic “Big Ten country,” a ton of athletic history, and excellent academics. For Notre Dame, however, the question is a lot tougher. The Irish have been a football independent throughout their history and current athletic director Jack Swarbrick recently said that their “highest priority is maintaining football independence.” Notre Dame is currently in the middle of a television contract with NBC for the rights to broadcast home football games, a contract that runs through 2015 and an issue that will need to be confronted somehow if the Irish are eventually invited and accept Big Ten membership. The amount of the NBC deal (about $15 million annually) is not prohibitive enough to prevent them from considering membership in the Big Ten, whose member schools currently receive about $20 million annually from their television contracts. It is even possible that if the Big Ten and Notre Dame can come to an agreement, all this expansion talk will end right there: Notre Dame joins up, the Big Ten stops at 12 teams, the Big East poaches a team from CUSA like Central Florida as an additional football school and geographic partner to South Florida or a basketball-only school from the A-10 like Rhode Island or Massachusetts and the end-of-the-world scenario is averted. At present, however, it is being reported that Notre Dame is not being considered in the Big Ten’s expansion plans (a report that nobody in their right mind believes), but if Notre Dame is interested, the Big Ten will certainly be interested as well.

Figure 1: Big Ten Best Case Scenario

However, it is also realistic that with or without Notre Dame, the Big Ten is aiming for 14 or 16 teams to become the first superconference. While the addition of teams such as Missouri and Nebraska makes the most geographic sense, this expansion thing is not really about logic but about dollars, and Delany seems most interested in all the potential viewers that the bigger east coast markets present — notably Rutgers and Syracuse, but also Pittsburgh and potentially Connecticut. Adding three or even all four of those schools would effectively kill Big East football as we know it and potentially damage the Big East basketball enough to persuade a fence-sitting Notre Dame to leap off onto the Big Ten side as well. Swarbick himself admitted in March that “there are things that are large enough to challenge our ability to remain independent and remain in the Big East.” All four (or even three) of those flagship Big East programs bolting for the Big Ten could be one of those “large enough” things.

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The 2009-10 college basketball season has just ended. Rather than dwell on the past, let’s look towards the future. That’s right, folks, hot off the presses: the first 2010-11 Top 25. Our assumptions on who is staying/leaving are within the team breakdowns.

1. Duke- Assuming Singler stays for his senior campaign, the defending champs are the clear preseason #1. Kyrie Irving and Seth Curry join the fun already started by Singler and Nolan Smith.

2. Butler– The Bulldogs should be a favorite to make another Final Four run. Hayward bolting while his stock is sky high would drop them a bit, but Matt Howard, Shelvin Mack and Ronald Nored all return.

3. Purdue– Losing Chris Kramer will hurt in the defense/leadership category, but the core should be back for another run in the loaded Big Ten: JaJuan Johnson, E’Twaun Moore and a healthy Robbie Hummel.

4. Michigan State– Lucas’ injury likely means he’s back for a senior season. Raymar Morgan is the only subtraction of note. Big years for Draymond Green and Durrell Summers should be expected.

5. Georgetown– Assuming Monroe goes into the lottery, the Hoyas should still be loaded. The other four starters return and it wouldn’t shock us if Chris Wright and Austin Freeman both contended for Big East Player of the Year.

6. Kansas State– The Wildcats will miss Denis Clemente, but nearly every other important piece is back, including Jacob Pullen. Curtis Kelly, Dominique Sutton and Jamar Samuels boost the frontcourt.

7. Ohio State-Evan Turner was Mr. Everything for the Buckeyes, but Thad Matta’s program won’t miss a beat. William Buford could be primed to break out and Jared Sullinger will contend for freshman of the year honors.

8. Tennessee– Bruce Pearl certainly lost some important pieces, but we also like their returning weapons, led by Scotty Hopson, Melvin Goins and Brian Williams and stud frosh Tobias Harris.

9. West Virginia– Their jump shooting issues could be even more pronounced without Da’Sean Butler, but Devin Ebanks, Kevin Jones and a healthier point guard duo is enough for a top ten ranking.

10. Kentucky– As presently constituted, the Wildcats are not a top ten team or anywhere close. But this is John Calipari we’re talking about. He should nab Brandon Knight and either C.J. Leslie or Josh Selby.

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How far-reaching is the NCAA Tournament?  Check out these tweets from famous people in other walks of life — actors, musicians, mostly athletes — who have nothing to do with this year’s tournament but are just fans of a particular school, a player, or college hoops in general.  We like that John Legend is diggin’ Ohio State.  Not surprising, since he attended Penn but was born in Ohio.  But given Evan Turner’s versatility, we wonder if a duet with Legend could be in the works.  Anyway, other than one spot where we xxx’d out an innocent person’s Twitter ID, every tweet here is presented exactly as it was found on each user’s account, and none of them are re-tweets. We think it’s pretty cool — you never know who’s watching.

Dara Torres (American Olympic swimmer, gold medalist x 4) — U guys watchn college hoops?? Kinda dig when there’s upsets…except not when it happens to the Gators!! Hehe!

Joel McHale (ex-Washington, and star of NBC’s Community and E!’s The Soup) — Holy crap.  Way to go Northern Iowa.

Pete Yorn (musician) — Wow! Kansas. [Ed. note — posted moments after KU’s loss to UNI]

Conan O’Brien — Hey sports fans, here’s my NCAA pick: bet it all on the Savannah College of Art & Design. Go Fighting Acrylics!

Unless you WANT to be told on, Ms. Banks...

John Legend (musician) — Great day today. Ohio St going to the Sweet 16. I had a great show in Miami Gardens. And the health care bill passed. Happy Sunday

Elizabeth Banks — No, dummies. I didn’t go to Cornell. I went to Penn (*cough* better school). But def pulling for the Ivy League team. Big Cornell win!

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We already talked about how great the first set of games today were , but it looks like the outstanding play didn’t stop. While Danero Thomas will be the name du jour to drop around the water cooler on Friday to act like you know what you are talking about, he wasn’t the only one etching his name into his school’s lore. In between another series of ridiculous games (Ohio shooting Georgetown right out of the NCAA Tournament and Washington mounting a huge comeback against Marquette), Northern Iowa was battling UNLV in a game that was tied at 66 with time winding down. Kwadzo Ahelegbe appeared to be dribbling out the clock and for a moment it seemed that the Panthers might not even get a shot off before the ball end up in the hands of Ali Farokhmanesh, who launched a shot that will only grow in legend in Cedar Falls, Iowa:

Farokhmanesh’s shot help UNI win its first game in the NCAA Tournament since 1990 when they were a #14 seed playing against #3 Missouri and they were facing a very similar situation with the game tied with 10 seconds left when the ball ended up in the hands of Maurice Newby:

Amazing, Farokhmanesh took his game-winning shot from almost the same spot on the court in the same situation as Newby did almost 20 years ago to the day. Unfortunately for UNI they lost their next game in 1990 to Minnesota. This year, they will play will play overall #1 Kansas. For the sake of the Panthers and their fans, hopefully that part of history does not repeat itself.

h/t to Ray Curren for digging up the 1990 video

Best first flight of games ever?  It just might be.  Right now the Selection Committee are looking like a bunch of geniuses.  We have confidence in the second flight of games bringing some excitement, too.  We popped for the DirecTV package so we’ll be monitoring every game:

• Ohio vs Georgetown
• East Tennessee State vs Kentucky
• Northern Iowa vs UNLV
• Washington vs Marquette
• San Diego State vs Tennessee
• Wake Forest vs Texas
• Lehigh vs Kansas
• Montana vs New Mexico

After what we saw this afternoon, we suggest you join us for our live-blogging feature this evening.  Get that refresh-button finger warmed up, and by all means let us know in the comments section what you’re watching and how you’re celebrating this unofficial national holiday.  We’ll start at around 7 PM ET.  See you there!

7:00: That’s OK Hemogoblin.  Though scheduling a fantasy baseball draft TODAY??  Hmmm…  Anyway, Butler is polishing off UTEP in a game that is going to screw up a lot of brackets.  UTEP was a popular upset pick for the first round, and sometimes beyond.  Frankly, I expected more from Arnett Moutrie at the forward spot.  Zero points today.

7:30: OK, sorry there, folks.  Had a quick  dinner break, which I tried to time right so it would happen during the single-game interval.  Didn’t hit it.  We haven’t missed much.  Kentucky has started pretty hot against ETSU and UNLV has taken an early lead over Northern Iowa.

7:52: Kentucky is shooting 70% to start this game.  YEESH.  They’re already up 41-16 against ETSU.  At what point do you pull the starters to rest for the second game against either Wake or Texas?

7:58: Anyone want to wake up Georgetown?  The Armon Bassett/D.J. Cooper tandem has been quite effective for the Bobcats, so far a combined 6-12 and 15 of Ohio U.’s 33 points.

8:02: Goodness.  John Wall already has seven assists.  Let’s see what else is on…

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Each day this week during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament we’re asking some of our top correspondents to put together a collection of notes and interesting tidbits about each region.  If you know of something that we should include in tomorrow’s submission, hit us up at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.

East Region Notes (Ryan Restivo of SienaSaintsBlog)

• President Barack Obama picked Kentucky to lose in his bracket’s final game but Coach John Calipari is worried about just getting momentum. “Land the plane. Survive and advance,” Calipari told Chris Low of ESPN. “That’s all we’re thinking about. We’re not worried about the score and who scores and what. Just land the plane and move on.” To that end, East Tennessee State lost by ten to Pitt last year as a #16 seed in the first round. Can they be the first to pull off the historic upset?
• Perhaps both Texas and Wake Forest should just throw out their recent struggles.
• Temple is only favored by 4 points over Cornell. Meanwhile Lafayette head coach Fran O’Hanlon has worked with both coaches and is rooting for both.
• Would professors at Wofford dare to not pick the Terriers over Wisconsin in their office pool? And apparently message boards hounded Badger junior Tim Jarmusz earlier this season as he moved from starting forward to coming off the bench.
• Washington’s Isaiah Thomas has a broken bone in his shooting hand, which is why he wears a glove.
• Last year Marquette’s players shaved their heads in solidarity, but this time they got a different haircut.
• New Mexico’s Darington Hobson is predicting a run to the regional finals. Meanwhile the New York Times has a great profile on Montana’s Anthony Johnson.
• Is this Mike Anderson’s best coaching job at Missouri?
• West Virginia is looking to beat Morgan State after losing to Dayton as a #6 seed last year.

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Over the next two days in a series of separate posts, RTC will break down all 32 of the first round games using our best analytical efforts to understand these teams, the matchups and their individual strengths and weaknesses.  Our hope is that you’ll let us know in the comments where you agree, disagree or otherwise think we’ve lost our collective minds.  Here are the Thursday evening games.

7:10 pm – #8 Northern Iowa vs. #9 UNLV  (Oklahoma City pod)

The Midwest Region’s first game of the tournament features two teams battling for the privilege of going up against Kansas in the next round. What press there is about Northern Iowa, Jordan Eglseder gets most of it. UNLV will also have to watch out for senior guard Ali Farokhmanesh, a streaky three-point shooter who’s had five straight games in single figures and is due for a run. It was thought at the beginning of the year that UNLV’s Tre’Von Willis and Oscar Bellfield would do a little more sharing of the scoring burden for the Runnin Rebels this year, but it’s been Willis who’s shouldered most of the load. At 17.5 PPG, he averages a full seven points more than the Rebels’ next leading scorer, sophomore forward Chace Stanback. Both of these teams take good care of the basketball and, even though neither of them is going to give the scoreboard operator much of a workout, the game itself should be a good one between two teams of similar talent. We hope all these guys get to enjoy the trappings of the tournament… because it won’t last long, sorry to say.

The Skinny: In a game played in the mid-50s (both in tempo and era), look for UNI to make the key plays down the stretch to win this one by four.

7:15 pm – #1 Kentucky vs. #16 ETSU  (New Orleans pod)

If any #16 seed is going to be the first to topple a top seed in this bracket, here’s your best shot. East Tennessee State was in this exact position one March ago and took #1 Pittsburgh to the wire. In fact, the Buccaneers trailed by just three points with 2:47 left in a contest usually reserved for monumental blowouts. ETSU was expected to rebuild after losing four starters from the Atlantic Sun champion of 2008-09, but the Bucs pulled off two upsets in the A-Sun Tournament and toppled Mercer in a true road game, meaning ETSU and former UAB headman Murry Bartow are dancing for the second straight campaign. One player who may give the top seed Wildcats some trouble is a 6’4 wing named Tommy Hubbard that has finally harnessed his talent and is one of the most improved players in the nation. Let’s be honest here, though: Kentucky should roll over the underdog Bucs. The Big Blue has more athleticism and pure ability than any team in the field, never mind the A-Sun champion that finished the season with 14 losses. No guard can come close to contain the blazing speed of John Wall. DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson should have their way on the boards. Even a few breathtaking alley-oops could be in store for the ESPN folks to feast on. Last year Cal State Northridge gave John Calipari’s Memphis team a real scare in the first round. Expect the Kentucky head coach to learn from that game and have his squad prepared to blow the doors off ETSU from the opening tip to the final buzzer.

The Skinny: Kentucky will spend most of the game up 20+ before calling off the dogs Cats to win by fifteen or so.

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