Checking In On… the ACC

Posted by Brian Goodman on January 11th, 2011

Matt Patton is the RTC correspondent for the ACC.

RTC is interested in learning how to improve our Checking In On… series in each conference.  Let us know in the below poll where we can improve this weekly piece (feel free to add specific comments).  Thanks.

A Look Back

The biggest news came out of Charlottesville when Virginia announced that Mike Scott needs season-ending surgery on his ankle.  Scott was Virginia’s best player and only post threat.  I was just starting to buy into Tony Bennett’s squad as a potential sleeper for the top half of the conference, but without Scott, they don’t stand a chance.  Don’t get me wrong, this Virginia team will still win some games in the ACC, but I don’t think there’s any chance they can sneak into the Tournament (despite having the best non-conference win of the ACC, a November road triumph at Minnesota ).

ACC Vault Film Session

In honor of the crushing loss Virginia sustained at home against North Carolina last week, our historical matchup will feature the same two teams, this time in Chapel Hill from 1983.  Virginia was in a better place then as far as a post presence goes, with superstar big man Ralph Sampson.  On the other side of the court, North Carolina wasn’t really slumming talent-wise with Sam Perkins, Michael Jordan and Brad Daugherty.  That’s three top five NBA Draft picks on the same team (the next season they added sixth overall pick Kenny Smith).  Like our game last week, Virginia led most of the game by as much as 16 points.  But the Tar Heels came storming back, and the Cavaliers led by three with just under three to play.  That doesn’t sound like much, but in the age without a shot clock (which was introduced three seasons later), they should have had no trouble holding the ball.  But Sampson missed the front end of a one-and-one, and what follows is must-see basketball.  Jordan got the putback to close the deficit to one with a minute to play.  Then His Airness (with four fouls) picks Rick Carlisle’s pocket and finishes it off with a huge tomahawk jam.  All in all, it was an epic game, even if Virginia finished with a loss.

  • Bizarro Team of the Week: Boston College Wait; am I allowed to give the award to a team undefeated in conference play with the second best overall record?  Yes.  That’s what happens when you start conference play 2-0, including a road win at Maryland, but go 0-2 in the Ivy League portion of your schedule.  In addition to an early season slip-up at home against Yale, Boston College lost to Harvard for the third year running.  Maybe Harvard and Yale were bitter they couldn’t beat Steve Donahue when he was at Cornell last season and played their best games of the season.  Or maybe Boston College is just grossly inconsistent.  I’ll hear arguments for a little of both, but I’m starting to lean towards the latter.  Truthfully, the Harvard loss wasn’t nearly as bad as the Yale one, but there’s no excuse for going winless at home against the Ivy League.
  • Team of the Week: Clemson – The Tigers have quietly won seven straight since losing at Florida StateDemontez Stitt and Jerai Grant combined for 35 points and Grant added 11 boards in the win against Miami.  The Tigers may not be loaded with star talent, but Brad Brownell has done a fantastic job getting the Tigers back on track after three straight losses earlier this season.  He’s looking like a solid early choice for ACC Coach of the Year if he can get Clemson back to the Big Dance this year without Trevor Booker.
  • Player of the Week: Tracy Smith is back.  He looked absolutely dominant in NC State’s game against Wake Forest.  Now, I don’t want to look too much into a big-time performance against an abysmal team, but Smith controlled all aspects of the game.  He was very vocal on offense, even away from the ball; made great passes; and was virtually unstoppable when he wanted to score.  He’ll definitely challenge Jordan Williams for the conference’s best big man this year, and Smith brings solid range that Williams can’t match.  He also pulled down 11 boards in the dominant conference opener.

Power Rankings

  1. Duke (15-0, 2-0) dominated UAB before getting the job done against Maryland.  Duke’s two close wins to start conference play might be cause for concern, but no one has waltzed through their schedule so far.  The Blue Devils are going to lose a couple of games this year, probably on the road when threes aren’t falling–and the other team is shooting well.  But wins are wins, and it’s very important to know how to win close games as well as blowouts.
  2. North Carolina (11-4, 1-0) got a tough, conference road win this week at Virginia.  After the game, Roy Williams was very pleased with his team’s aggressive play, even if the execution wasn’t flawless.  The Tar Heels are still woefully inconsistent on offense, but never scoff at a road win.
  3. Maryland (10-5, 0-2) moves up after a tough loss at Duke and a woodshed beating of Colgate.  The Terrapins gave Duke everything they could handle at Cameron.  Jordan Williams, as usual, was phenomenal, but the guard play left a lot to be desired.  If Gary Williams can figure out a way to get his backcourt to start performing well, look out.  The Terrapins still haven’t shown they can close out a close game, but I think they’ll develop that skill as the season progresses.  The Duke game at College Park on February 2nd is looking to be one of the best games of the season (and maybe Duke’s best chance for a regular season loss).
  4. NC State (11-4, 1-0) got a couple of wins against unimpressive teams this week.  That said, I was at the Wake Forest game, and the second half was an offensive showcase for the Wolfpack.  Sidney Lowe needs this team to keep up that sort of offensive efficiency and challenge for an at-large bid.
  5. Clemson (12-4, 1-1) has bounced back from an ugly stretch earlier.  Now they must prove they can beat better teams.
  6. Virginia Tech (10-4, 1-1) will have trouble overcoming all of their injuries, but they played a very strong game against Florida State.  I don’t think they have the depth to be the team everyone expected, but Seth Greenberg’s squad shouldn’t be the nations biggest disappointment.
  7. Boston College (12-4, 2-0) had a disappointing week.  See above.
  8. Miami (11-5, 0-2) may be showing their true colors, having lost their first two games of 2011.  Both were road games, but I expected the Hurricanes to do a little more at Clemson.  More specifically, I expected more of Reggie Johnson.  After he had a dominant game at Duke, he was a total nonfactor at Little John, playing 26 minutes but only attempting three field goals.  He has to be one of their primary options unless Malcolm Grant or Durand Scott are having career games.  Johnson will be the key for Miami going forward.  When he’s playing well (and isn’t in foul trouble), they will be a very tough team.  When he’s not, Frank Haith might want to start checking out potential job openings.
  9. Virginia (10-6, 1-1) needs an inside threat, but I don’t think they have one now that Mike Scott is out for the year.  They were able to hang with North Carolina for most of the game but couldn’t close it out.  They also only managed 19 points in the second half.  You’re not going to win many games scoring 19 points in either half (just ask Florida State).  Tony Bennett has done a very good job getting this team to the level it’s at.  I know it’s probably frustrating for Cavaliers fans, but I think he’s building a good program.  His style isn’t spectacular, but I see him as a Herb Sendek-esque coach: never elite, but very consistent.
  10. Florida State (11-5, 1-1) lost an ugly game at Virginia Tech.  One thing is clear about the Seminoles: they don’t run an offense.  Chris Singleton is a great player.  There’s no denying that.  But the rest of the team has some real trouble on offense.  Take the game in Blacksburg: Singleton was 9-14 from the field; rest of the team was 13-48.  That’s not going to cut it.
  11. Georgia Tech (7-7, 0-1) looks like they’re ready to join Wake Forest in the ACC cellar after falling in three of their last four (and to .500).  Can’t say I’m that surprised.  If Paul Hewitt couldn’t win with Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal, he’s going to have a real tough team winning without them.
  12. Wake Forest (7-9, 0-1) finally got a win at the Big South!  That’s right, the Demon Deacons took care of the Panthers to improve to 1-2 in Big South play.  Unfortunately the Deacs play in the ACC, where even in a down year victories are going to be harder to come by.  I count three winnable games for Jeff Bzdelik’s squad: Georgia Tech at home, Virginia at home and Florida State at home.  Florida State is probably a stretch, but hey, they lost to Auburn right?

A Look Ahead

Conference play is in full swing.  Below are chances for teams to make big statements this week (all times EST), with one big non-con game this weekend.

  • Wednesday Upset Watch: Duke at Florida State (9:00PM, ESPN): Duke hasn’t played in an environment like Tallahassee yet this season.  They’ve also had two pretty close games in ACC play.  I fully expect the Seminole defense and atmosphere to lead to an off shooting night.  The only question is whether Florida State will be able to score.  I’m guessing not, but they need to make a statement.
  • Thursday: Virginia Tech at North Carolina (9:00PM, ESPN): This should be an interesting measuring-stick game for both of these teams.  Virginia Tech doesn’t have any big bodies inside, so I think the Carolina frontcourt will be too much, not to mention homecourt advantage.
  • Saturday: Maryland at Villanova (1:00PM, CBS) gives Maryland a much-needed chance for a marquee win.  Call me a homer, but I think they’ve got a shot.  Jordan Williams will be unguardable, and the Villanova guards haven’t been as good as advertised.  Gary Williams just needs to figure out how to get a serviceable game out of his backcourt, which might be asking a lot.
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Set Your Tivo: 01.11.11

Posted by Brian Otskey on January 11th, 2011

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

Three key conference clashes from different leagues take place tonight with two of the home clubs desperately needing a win. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

#17 Wisconsin @ #20 Michigan State – 7 pm on ESPN (****)

Leuer Made the Midseason Top 30 Wooden Award List, Yet Many Fans Couldn't Pick Him Out of a Lineup.

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That’s Debatable: Mid-Season Awards

Posted by rtmsf on January 6th, 2011

That’s Debatable is back for another year of expert opinions, ridiculous assertions and general know-it-all-itude.  Remember, kids, there are no stupid answers, just stupid people.  We’ll try to do one of these each week during the season.  We’re fairly discerning around here, but if you want to be included, send us an email with your take telling us why at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.

This Week’s Topic: Unbelievably, we’re already halfway through the regular season.  Who are your mid-season award winners for POY, COY and FrOY, and who is your surprise team for the second half of the season?

Brian Otskey, RTC contributor

I still have to go with Kemba Walker for POY at this point. The Connecticut guard just about single-handedly won the Maui Invitational for the Huskies and poured in 20+ points in every game from November 17 to December 31. Big East teams undoubtedly are going to defend him better but if the season ended today, he’s my choice. Staying in the Big East, my mid-season COY is Notre Dame’s Mike Brey. The Irish coach, now in his eleventh (!) year in South Bend, has made a contender out of a team picked to finish seventh in the league. Notre Dame has a great chance for a double-bye at MSG in March and has already knocked off Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Georgetown and Connecticut. Freshman of the year has to go to Jared Sullinger and it’s not even close. Sorry, I’m not taking Kyrie Irving who’s missed almost half of Duke’s games (through no fault of his own mind you). I just can’t do it. As for my sleeper, I’m with Seth Davis. Watch out for North Carolina in the second half. Provided they stay healthy, the Tar Heels will roll to second place in the down ACC and get back in the top 25 at some point.

Kellen Carpenter, RTC contributor

Half-way through and I feel like things have barely even started. That said, the season could last until May and I still doubt I would change my mind about Jared Sullinger. I just love watching him get crafty around the basket. He is a rare talent and the clear choice in my mind for Player of the Year, and I guess that means I have to give him Freshman of the Year too. Sorry, Kyrie: just bad luck. As for Coach of the Year, I’d give it to Steve Donahue. Though Boston College’s defense has gotten worse, he has supercharged the offense and when the players are rolling, it is a thing of terrifying and undeniable beauty. Seldom have I seen a team so completely and suddenly transformed. And for the second half of the season, I’d urge everyone to stay up a little bit later than usual and take in some Arizona games. Don’t let the loss to Oregon State fool you: This team is for real. Derrick Williams is a terrific player and I have a feeling that the Wildcats are going to be dangerously underestimated in March.

Matt Patton, RTC contributor

Player of the Year is totally up in the air, but right now I like Jon Leuer from Wisconsin.  Without him the Badgers are a low-end Big 10 team with a good point guard (think Penn State with Talor Battle).  With him they’re a sleeper contender and top 25 team.  I think I’d give Coach of the Year to Mike Brey of Notre Dame with San Diego State’s Steve Fisher coming in a close second.  I think Brey has taken a team with very little buzz to a place not many people outside South Bend were expecting.  He’s done a terrific job getting the most out of his players so far, and after their win over Georgetown I think the Fighting Irish are for real.  Freshman of the Year goes to Jared Sullinger.  Kyrie Irving would have a shot if he wasn’t hurt, but with him sidelined and Terrence Jones’ recent struggles I think Sullinger is a no brainer.  He makes Ohio State a truly elite team and is arguably the most polished interior force in college basketball.

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Checking in on… the ACC

Posted by Brian Goodman on January 4th, 2011

Matt Patton is the RTC correspondent for the ACC.

A Look Back

Another miserable week of basketball in the ACC.  By my count, the ACC notched zero good wins.  That said they only had three shots (Wake Forest against Richmond and Gonzaga or Miami at Duke).  The conference still managed to finish 15-7 (14-6 discounting the conference game), even against middling competition.

Bizarro Team of the Week:  Florida State.  Hands down.  Unanimous decision.  That’s what happens when you lose to a team projected to be the worst major conference team in Division I history.  The Seminoles handed Auburn its first (and very likely only) victory over a BCS-conference team in a hideous game of basketball.  You can blame it on Chris Singleton’s horrific free throw shooting (he went 4-12), but this game shouldn’t have been within 20.  Before this win Auburn had lost at home to UNC-Asheville, Samford, Campbell, Jacksonville and Presbyterian.  The only team the Tigers had beaten in the top 300 (out of the 345 total D-I institutions) according to Ken Pomeroy was number 210, Middle Tennessee State.  That’s epically bad.  And the Seminoles played worse.  They looked lazy and complacent the entire game, giving up uncharacteristic open threes and making more characteristic possessions of offensive ineptitude.  I used to think this team was the second best team in the ACC, but if that’s true, the ACC is much worse than anyone thought.

Team of the Week:  North Carolina has quietly won six of their last seven with the one loss coming to a very good Texas team (by two).  While they didn’t face particularly tough competition, the Tar Heels put away Rutgers and St. Francis handily.  I covered the St. Francis game, and, while it wasn’t perfect, the Tar Heels are better than when they started the season.  I’m still perplexed as to why Roy Williams insists on playing Larry Drew II over Kendall Marshall, but I haven’t won two national championships, so I won’t complain too much.  Carolina showed stretches of offensive and defensive brilliance (really the entire second half was a defensive show).  While pretty much everyone assumed Reggie Bullock was going to be their sharpshooter, it looks more and more like Leslie McDonald may be stepping up to that role.  I’m still not confident McDonald will be an elite scorer at the ACC level, but I think he could be just as solid as Will Graves was last year.  I think the other major concern in the backcourt will be developing an identity: last year Texas never really chose one point guard, and they paid the price.  That could be why Williams is sticking with Drew.  In the frontcourt, there’s as much talent as any team in the nation (and probably more), but there’s not a whole lot of toughness.  Tyler Zeller still allows smaller players to push him around; John Henson is pretty slight himself; and Harrison Barnes has looked much more willing to put up jumpers than take the ball to the basket.

Player of the Week:  Nolan Smith takes the honors this week after a dominant performance for Duke against Miami.  The Blue Devils were struggling offensively, but Smith scored 28 points with five rebounds and five assists to boot.  In the game against UNC Greensboro, Smith finished with 26 points, five rebounds and nine assists.  Especially when Kyle Singler isn’t having great nights, Smith is going to be crucial for Duke if they want to stay undefeated.

Power Rankings

1.  Duke (13-0, 1-0) struggled a lot against Miami.  Their offense still hasn’t found a real flow since losing Kyrie Irving to a toe injury.  They are still running tests to see how long he’ll be out, so we’ll keep updating you as news surfaces.  Kyle Singler and Seth Curry had an off night, but the bigger issue was the Plumlee brothers.  Mason and Miles Plumlee looked soft all night against Reggie Johnson and the Miami frontline.  They’re going to be crucial if Duke wants to cut down the nets again this season.  They can’t continue to be nonfactors (or worse) on both ends of the floor.  Both are athletic–especially Mason–and they’re going to have to start reaping the benefits of that athleticism and living up to the hype if Duke is going to reach its potential.  As an important aside, Mike Krzyzewski passed Dean Smith for second on the all time wins list with the win over UNC-Greensboro.

2.  North Carolina (10-4) took care of business (see above).  The most interesting moment from the Saint Francis postgame presser came when a reporter asked Roy Williams if Kendall Marshall’s increased minutes were a sign of things to come.  Williams responded that Marshall’s extra minutes were a product of Larry Drew’s defensive intensity (apparently Drew gave the “I’m tired” signal twice during the game).  But clearly Williams is not on the “bench Larry Drew” bandwagon.  They start conference play at Virginia Saturday.

3.  Maryland (9-4, 0-1) is rising largely thanks to losses by much of the conference.  The Terrapins throttled North Florida in their only game of the week.  The game was highlighted by strong performances from Jordan Williams (who finished with 17 points and 11 boards) and Sean Mosley (15 points, four rebounds and six assists).  Although one dark spot was Williams’ 1-10 effort from the charity stripe…  Still, Maryland fans have to like Mosley starting to look more like last season.

4.  Miami (11-4, 0-1) slaughtered Pepperdine before taking a respectable defeat in Cameron Indoor.  Reggie Johnson in particular was just terrific, finishing with 22 points on 9-10 shooting.  He’s starting to look like the third best big man in the ACC behind Williams and Zeller.  Assuming Johnson can keep out of foul trouble, the Hurricanes have a very impressive trio in Malcolm Grant (junior), Durand Scott and Johnson (both sophomores).  Assuming all three develop, Miami could be a contender next year.

5.  Clemson (11-4, 0-1) had the best record for the week (3-0) with dominant wins over Delaware State, Eastern Carolina and Citadel.  While none are elite teams, three wins are three wins (especially this week). Jerai Grant has exploded as of late and is 63.9% from the field.

6.  Virginia Tech (9-4, 0-1) took care of South Carolina Upstate before absolutely demolishing Mount Saint Mary’s.  The Hokies still have major injury woes, which will only add pressure to Malcolm DelaneyDorenzo Hudson may be the toughest of them all, as I expected him to be their number two option this season.  It’s hard to think of a way the Hokies could live up to their preseason hype between injuries and underperformance, and I still think they’re on the wrong side of the bubble.

7.  NC State (9-4) got Tracy Smith back, which is huge.  They also blew out Alabama A&M and San Diego, which was expected.  With Smith I think the Wolfpack can right the ship and at least finish in the top half of the conference.  I’m not sure if they’ll be able to get the ten conference wins I think will be necessary to garner an at-large bid, but I think they’ll make a decent run.

8.  Boston College (11-3, 1-0) lost at heartbreaker at Rhode Island and beat South Carolina.  I may be punishing Steve Donahue’s squad a little too much (Rhode Island is a pretty good team) because I still think this team has a good shot to make the tournament.  Would you believe me if I told you the Eagles have the fourth most efficient offense in the country?  That’s got to get you somewhere, even if you do have a very subpar defense.  Now they just need to end their two-year losing streak to Harvard this week…

T9. Georgia Tech (7-6) is 7-6?  That’s awful.  If not for Wake’s infamous season, there would be a lot more negative press surrounding Paul Hewitt‘s squad, but I guess it pays to be not quite the worst.  The Yellow Jackets are still shooting horrendously from beyond the arc–although they made over 40% in a crazy double overtime loss to UNC Charlotte.  The two big issues with that loss are that Charlotte dismissed their best player earlier this season and the game was in Atlanta.

T9. Florida State (11-4, 1-0) lost to the worst major conference team in the country…see above for more.

T9. Virginia (9-5, 1-0) was blown out by Big 12 (normal) cellar-dweller Iowa State in Charlottesville.  Not really a promising outing.  Mike Scott is still out with an injury, and it shows: not one Cavalier player scored in double figures.  None.  KT Harrell (off the bench) led all Virginia scorers with 9.

12. Wake Forest (6-8) got a real boost in the worst major conference team in the country race thanks to wins out of Oregon State and Auburn.  Now if DePaul can go on a little run, the Demon Deacons might have it locked up.  Seriously.  Jeff Bzdelik’s squad lost at Richmond and to Gonzaga this week.  Both losses were expected, but they were also both red line upsets (for those fans of mid-majors).

A Look Ahead

If you look closely at the power rankings you’ll notice that the three teams that lost their first game of conference play are in the top half of the conference, while two of the three winning teams inhabit the lower portion of the rankings.  This means one of three things: (1) the rankings are totally off base; (2) the games were not good measurements of the teams’ talents; or (3) the conference is bad enough that pretty much every game is a toss-up.  I’m hoping the answer is 1 or 2, but I’m worried it’s 3.  I think Duke and North Carolina are going to rack up a ton of conference wins.  Maryland, Miami, Clemson, NC State, Boston College and a healthy Virginia might too, but I think there are much larger flaws on these teams that will lead to more inconsistency.  It’s looking like a lot of low seeds again this year from the Big Dance, buffered by lots of wins over middling and even plain bad conference opponents.  The good news is there’s not much place to go but up.

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Set Your Tivo: 12.29.10

Posted by Brian Otskey on December 29th, 2010

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

A terrific Big East game and two Pac 10 games highlight tonight’s schedule while Marquette seeks a quality win on the road against an underrated SEC squad. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

#8 Georgetown @ #16 Notre Dame – 7 pm on ESPN2 (****)

Two highly efficient offenses meet in each team’s first Big East game of the season. The visiting Hoyas are the top team in the nation when it comes to effective field goal percentage and rank in the top five in both two and three point shooting. Each team scores 81 PPG and is highly experienced, their key players all being veterans. Notre Dame starts four seniors, one of the most experienced teams in the entire country. Georgetown will look to take advantage of their superior marksmanship against an Irish defense that’s better but wouldn’t be confused with any of the top defenses in college basketball. Austin Freeman doesn’t need much room to shoot (49% from deep) and should find ample opportunities for good looks against Notre Dame tonight. Georgetown’s talented guards have the advantage but you can make the argument that the Irish have more balance. Notre Dame’s freshman point guard Eric Atkins has played well but Mike Brey counts on his seniors to do most of the damage. Ben Hansbrough and Tim Abromaitis can stroke it from deep and have the ability to score inside as well. Notre Dame has to rebound the ball well and get to the free throw line to win. If they do both, Julian Vaughn should be minimized. The Georgetown big man has had a nice year and gives them a threat up front where teams can’t just concentrate on the perimeter. However, foul trouble will open up the interior for Tyrone Nash and company while making it easier for the Irish to rebound. Notre Dame is already #3 in keeping opponents off the offensive boards and third in opponents free throw rate as well. Playing at home, ND should hold a significant advantage at the line against a Georgetown team that doesn’t get there often. Both teams shoot it well from the stripe but the Hoya offense doesn’t offer many chances to get fouled. Georgetown has played in quite a few tough environments this year and has emerged victorious all but once. The Irish are good but we love this Hoya team and expect them to earn another solid road win in a difficult atmosphere.

Marquette @ #22 Vanderbilt – 9 pm on ESPN2 (***)

The Golden Eagles desperately need a quality win out of conference and this is their final chance to get one. However, it’s a tall order playing on the road against a Vanderbilt team that hasn’t received the respect it deserves. This is Marquette’s second true road game and the first was against city rival Milwaukee at U.S. Cellular Arena, literally a short walk from the Bradley Center. Memorial Gym will be an entirely different test for Buzz Williams and his team. Looking at this matchup, one immediately notices the height advantage the Commodores will enjoy. Marquette doesn’t really have anyone near the size of Vanderbilt center Festus Ezeli, having a tremendous season. Jae Crowder and Jimmy Butler are good players but it’s hard to see them containing Ezeli for the whole game. Williams may have to turn to Davante Gardner, though the big freshman hasn’t been able to play any kind of extended minutes. Getting the Vanderbilt big man in foul trouble is highly encouraged if you’re a Marquette fan considering MU scores 61% of its points inside the arc. Ezeli has the potential to disrupt the flow inside and keep the men in gold off the boards. Kevin Stallings puts a balanced starting five on the court, a unit that’s efficient on both ends of the floor. Vanderbilt has a smart point guard, a three point gunner, good forwards and a strong interior presence. John Jenkins is the three point gunner and he’s caught fire of late, shooting 52% from deep over his last three games. He’ll look to take care of a soft Golden Eagles perimeter defense, ranked just #258 against the triple. Marquette will need an answer to Jenkins’ shooting prowess and Darius Johnson-Odom figures to be the most likely candidate. DJO has struggled most of the year with his shot but you can never count him out. He took the Big East by storm last year, making himself known to thousands of opposing fans. While he hasn’t been nearly the same shooter he was last season, you have to respect his ability and potential to break out at any point. Marquette needs a good game from their dynamic guard in order to pull the road upset tonight. Also key for Buzz Williams and his team will be turnover margin. Vanderbilt should have the edge on the glass so Marquette must come up with extra possessions by forcing turnovers and taking care of the ball on their own end.  Vanderbilt has lost just two games, each by three points. On paper this looks like a bad matchup for Marquette but that’s why they play the games. Still, we expect Vanderbilt to come away with a good home win against a middle of the pack Big East team that should improve as the season moves along.

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Checking in on… the ACC

Posted by Brian Goodman on December 28th, 2010

Matt Patton is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic Coast Conference.

A Look Back

Happy holidays. In honor of the holiday season, this post is going to be short and sweet. ACC basketball had another slow week. Only Florida State played games of note in the Diamond Head Classic. As the conference only played 15 games this week, I’ll try and give season summaries for each team, as we get ready to really kick off conference play.

  • Bizarro Team of the Week: Virginia took the prize this week with a loss to Seattle. At home. I understand Mike Scott is still out, but one player shouldn’t be the difference between a decent team and one ranked near the bottom of D-I. Especially when the Cavaliers were playing at home. No excuses.
  • Team of the Week: Florida State – The Seminoles came up big at the Diamond Head Classic this week, notching wins against Baylor and Hawaii. Even though they lost to eventual champion Butler, the Seminoles showed that you can win with some shutdown defense. Baylor was probably overrated to start the season, but they have about as much talent as any team in the nation (excluding the point guard position). Florida State definitely won’t win any offensive beauty pageants, but they finally showed they can really hurt opponents by keeping them out of an offensive flow.

Power Rankings

  1. Duke (11-0): Coach K’s team sat idle last week. The Blue Devils are clearly tops in the ACC with or without Kyrie Irving. However, they haven’t shown the same smooth offense that I think will be necessary in March to take the national championship. There’s still a whole lot of time for either Mike Krzyzewski to figure out a viable alternative to Irving at point, or let Irving’s toe heal. I think one (or both) are pretty likely, but until we hear more news from Durham we can only speculate.
  2. Florida State (11-3, 1-0): FSU had their most productive week of the year. I think the Seminoles are going to be most dangerous against teams with shaky point guard play (think North Carolina, Wake Forest and to a much smaller extent Duke). I think their game in January against the Blue Devils may be Duke’s best chance to lose in ACC play, since Florida State plays an elite defense that could really fluster Duke’s offensive weapons. That said, Florida State runs one of the ugliest offenses in the country. Essentially, they don’t run an offense. This means I doubt they will be able to win many games that reach the 70s.
  3. Boston College (10-2, 1-0): BC eked out a win over Bucknell. The Eagles have one of the most efficient offenses in the country, and I think they’ll be much better than expected during ACC play (given much of that credit goes to the ACC’s lack of depth). That said, barely beating Bucknell is probably not a great sign for future success. Regardless, Steve Donahue’s team looks like they’ve really bought into his program, which has helped reduce the new coach growing pains.
  4. North Carolina (8-4): UNC has only “good losses” but only one “good win” (Kentucky). Not really something to brag about. That said the Heels do look better on offense (though they struggle with offensive consistency), and they’re the second ranked ACC team according to Ken Pomeroy (after Duke). But Tar Heel fans won’t take “moral victories.” The Tar Heels probably should finish second in conference play, but they need to show the ability to win on the road (their only true road game, at Illinois, was very ugly).
  5. Miami (10-3): won three games in as many days against Oral Roberts, Rice and Akron. Durand Scott, Malcolm Grant and Reggie Johnson are real playmakers, but Johnson especially needs to learn to stay out of foul trouble (currently he’s averaging six fouls in 40 minutes). Scott and Grant have been lights out from downtown, and that will need to continue in conference play. I think the real key for the Hurricanes is defense. Although the Hurricanes are also question marks on the road: they’re only truly ugly loss came at Rutgers (and their only road win came against a horrendous Florida Gulf Coast squad).
  6. Maryland (8-4, 0-1): nothing too impressive out of Gary Williams and company. They beat up on New Jersey Institute of Technology as they should have. Not to come off sounding like a broken record, the Terrapins still need a leader. They need that player who can take over the game with two minutes to play, even if it’s only from the foul line. So far Sean Mosley has been a total flop, and Jordan Williams is at least another year from being that kind of player.
  7. Clemson (9-4, 0-1): beat a decent College of Charleston team on the road and dominated Delaware State (who almost beat N.C. State earlier in the week). Demontez Stitt’s return is good news for Tiger fans.
  8. Virginia Tech (7-4, 0-1): beat Saint Bonaventure in overtime. But the big news came when Dorenzo Hudson required surgery for a foot injury and will be out the rest of the season. To put it another way: the Hokies are done. If there was ever any hope that they could put it back together and live up to expectations, this erased it. The Hokies are hobbled (and just not all that talented). Expect them to drop from here on out. They could pull a Tennessee and beat Duke… but Seth Greenberg is no Bruce Pearl, so don’t count on it.
  9. Georgia Tech (6-5): didn’t do themselves any favors by losing to Siena this week. Admittedly, Siena is a solid mid-major squad (and the game was on the road). I’m worried about leadership here. No offense to Iman Shumpert intended, but he’s not the player I want running my offense on the road. He’s very streaky and can singlehandedly win games and singlehandedly lose games. Additionally, Georgia Tech shoots an abysmal 26.1% from three (only two of their players on the entire roster break 30%).
  10. Virginia (8-4, 0-1) took one on the chin this week from Seattle. This is a totally different team without Mike Scott, who has proved to be a real player. He’s the key to a successful ACC season. I’d still be surprised if this team can finish in the top half of the ACC (barring a totally superhuman season out of Scott).
  11. N.C. State (7-4): looked really bad against Delaware State. That’s not a game the Wolfpack can afford to win on a putback with 2.1 seconds to play. Tracy Smith still isn’t back, and he should add a totally new dimension to this team in a low post threat. The Wolfpack will need to finish solidly in the top half of the conference and might have to win a game in the NCAA Tournament to save Sidney Lowe’s job though. That looks like a long shot from where we’re standing now.
  12. Wake Forest (6-6): continued the nightmarish start by dropping a game to Presbyterian, a team still making the transition into D-I, at home this week. The Demon Deacons are looking like they’re going to go into conference play under .500, and they’re not going to be favored in any conference games this season. They’ve also got a couple of tough games (Richmond and Gonzaga) before they start conference play, and they’ve already shown they can lose to a Big South team. I’m not sure this season could end faster for Jeff Bzdelik unless Tony Chennault turns out to be a top-notch point guard.

Looking Ahead

In case you can’t tell, the ACC has major leadership issues. Most teams have point guard questions, and I’m not confident any of these teams (outside of Duke) are ready to win in hostile environments. The conference is marred by underachieving squads (N.C. State and Virginia Tech), inconsistent squads (North Carolina and Florida State) and just plain bad squads (Wake Forest and Georgia Tech). The only pleasant surprises have been Boston College and Miami. I’m seeing a lot of high seeds come Selection Sunday unless someone drastically improves (Florida State and North Carolina are in the best shape). But the season is still less than halfway done, and there’s still a lot of basketball to play. Here’s to a better 2011. Happy holidays.

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Set Your Tivo: 12.10-12.12

Posted by Brian Otskey on December 10th, 2010

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

Friday’s schedule is barren but Saturday has a bunch of terrific matchups. Two ACC conference games highlight a soft Sunday to close out the weekend. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

#13 UNLV @ Louisville – 12 pm Saturday on ESPNU (****)

Rick Pitino’s Cardinals are a surprising 7-0 but when you really look at their schedule you realize they haven’t played top teams. Louisville’s best win is over Butler, a team clearly not even near the level it was last year. Including Butler, Louisville’s opponents have an aggregate record of just 25-31. That changes on Saturday when 9-0 UNLV heads to the KFC Yum! Center. The Rebels have already played five games away from home so they’ll be ready for a tough environment. UNLV is a strong team on both sides of the ball but they’ve really piled up the numbers on offense. They’re in the top ten in effective field goal percentage behind Chace Stanback and his 59% shooting. Stanback is a 6’8 wing/forward type player who can cause a lot of problems for the opponent matching up with him. His game extends to the three point arc as well, hitting 41% of his treys this year. It’ll be interesting to see if Pitino puts Rakeem Buckles (10/9) or Terrence Jennings (56% FG) on Stanback. Buckles is the better rebounder so Louisville may not want him drifting away from the basket trying to defend UNLV’s leading scorer. Buckles has made significant strides in his sophomore season, a theme seen throughout Louisville’s starting lineup. Pitino’s top five scorers have increased their scoring by a total of 31 PPG, making up for a lot of what they lost from last year’s team. We recall Pitino saying he’d have a bunch of guys averaging 8-15 PPG and that’s exactly what he has so far. Louisville is a strong defensive club, rated eighth in defensive efficiency. UNLV gets a lot of points from two point range (#5 in two point %) so Louisville will have to live up to their defensive billing in order to win. The Cardinals rank in the top ten in three point defense and effective field goal percentage against so UNLV point guard Oscar Bellfield (53% from three) has to have a good game controlling the ball and getting quality shots for himself and his teammates. Louisville will look to use their pressure defense to push the pace and create turnovers. Pitino said he’s been using a 24-second shot clock in practice so expect Louisville to really get up and down the floor looking for extra possessions. The Cardinals like to shoot a lot of three’s but they aren’t very good at it (32%). Mike Marra should hoist the most, averaging nine three point attempts per game while converting just 30% of the time. With Tre’Von Willis back in the fold, Lon Kruger can go nine-deep if he so chooses. Fresh legs will be needed against Louisville and could play a role late in the second half. UNLV should look to get to the free throw line to stop the flow of the game and take advantage of a Louisville team rated just #252 in opponents’ free throw attempts per field goal attempts. The Cardinals should have an edge on the boards (42 RPG) as UNLV struggles to keep opponents off the offensive glass. This is going to be a really good game, one that may come down to the very end. Louisville will probably be favored to win at home but we wouldn’t be surprised to see the Runnin’ Rebels pick up a key road victory, either.

Wisconsin @ Marquette – 2:30 pm Saturday on ESPN2 (****)

This annual rivalry is one of the most underrated in the country. Wisconsin holds a 63-53 edge but there’s an added twist this season. Marquette freshman Vander Blue originally committed to Wisconsin before signing with Buzz Williams and the Golden Eagles giving Marquette a valuable piece for the future. Each team has a star player going at it in this one, Marquette’s Jimmy Butler and Wisconsin’s Jon Leuer. They’re similar, but Leuer is taller and has a better three point game. The UW big man shoots 48% from deep and is the key man in Bo Ryan’s deliberate offensive system. With Marquette giving up 39% shooting from three on average, expect Leuer and his Badger teammates to have a big game from long range. Wisconsin’s tempo is one of the slowest in the country but they run their offense well and take terrific care of the basketball with Jordan Taylor running the show at the point guard position. Taylor has a stunning 3.92 assist to turnover ratio and teams with Leuer to provide Wisconsin with just under half of their points. Taylor is also a strong defender who will look to disrupt Marquette’s offensive flow. With Dwight Buycks questionable for this game (he did not play Tuesday against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi), Buzz Williams will turn to the inexperienced Junior Cadougan who missed most of last season with a ruptured Achilles tendon. Wisconsin is solid just about everywhere but they’re vulnerable on the three point line. Unfortunately for Marquette, they shoot just 31% as a team from three and that’s where Darius Johnson-Odom comes in. When hot, the dynamic junior can be one of the best shooters you’ll see. He broke out against Milwaukee on November 27 (29 points, 5-7 from three) but struggled in the two games since. For the year DJO is shooting just 29% from three, down almost 20% from last season’s 47% mark. He can get it going at any time though and that’s what makes this game unpredictable. If Johnson-Odom is on, Marquette has an even better chance to pick up a home win over their rival. Tuesday night’s Marquette game saw Vander Blue break out, scoring 21 points on 9-13 shooting. However it also included the loss of Joseph Fulce, an important glue guy for Marquette. The 6’7 Fulce went down with what appeared to be a serious knee injury, the same knee that had been giving him problems before. How Marquette responds to the loss of one of their emotional leaders will be important in this game. Don’t expect Wisconsin to get to the foul line much at all so they’ll have to make up for that disadvantage with strong defense and efficient offensive sets. Marquette is third in the country in keeping opponents off the line while Wisconsin is near the bottom of D1 in getting there. The Badgers are a very good rebounding team and they should hold an edge there against smaller Marquette. Though inexperienced, Cadougan is a talented player who’s capable of replacing Buycks at the point if necessary. Look for Marquette to use Butler and fellow forward Jae Crowder inside the arc, trying to penetrate the stout Wisconsin defense. Rivalry games are usually close and this one figures to be no exception. There are a lot of unknowns on the Marquette side in this game but it would be a very big resume-building win if they can get it in front of the home folks at the Bradley Center.

SEC/Big East Invitational: #11 Tennessee @ #3 Pittsburgh (CONSOL Energy Center) – 3:15 pm Saturday on ESPN (*****)

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RTC Live: Providence @ Boston College

Posted by zhayes9 on December 8th, 2010

Game #66.  RTC Live is back in Chestnut Hill for what has become a very interesting matchup as the early season has worn on.

This year’s edition of New England’s finest hoops rivalry gets underway tonight at 7 PM ET when Providence travels north to face Boston College at Conte Forum. While both teams were considered long shots to make the NCAA Tournament before the season, the Friars (9-1) and Eagles (6-2) are off to surprising starts. Providence’s #99 ranking in defensive efficiency is a dramatic improvement from last year’s squad and the Friars have early wins against Wyoming, Northeastern and in-state foe Rhode Island to show for it. The versatile duo of Marshon Brooks (21.4 PPG) and emerging star Vincent Council (17.1 PPG) lead the scoring attack in a crucial season for Keno Davis. Despite a shocking loss to Yale, Boston College has rebounded to beat both Texas A&M and California on a neutral floor and defeated Indiana in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Junior Reggie Jackson (18.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG) is one of the most gifted and exciting players in the ACC while first-year coach Steve Donahue also has senior cogs Joe Trapani and Corey Raji at his disposal. Join me tonight from Conte Forum for RTC Live to see if Providence can notch their first quality win of the campaign or if the Eagles protect their home turf and continue to build their own NCAA Tournament resume.

Ed. Note: We had some technical difficulties at Conte Forum tonight. We will have a full write-up tomorrow.

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Set Your Tivo: 12.08.10

Posted by Brian Otskey on December 8th, 2010

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

Two clashes featuring SEC East schools headline tonight’s slate, plus we have a couple interesting west coast games later tonight. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

#24 Vanderbilt @ #15 Missouri – 9 pm on ESPNU (****)

Vandy's Festus Ezeli is Playing Great This Year

Vanderbilt has flown under the radar for the most part but they’ve now been recognized and cracked our RTC Top 25 this week. Kevin Stallings seems to produce a solid program every year in Nashville, winning at least 20 games in five of the past seven seasons. Vandy is 7-1, their only loss coming by three to West Virginia in Puerto Rico. The Commodores knocked off North Carolina to finish third in that tournament, the first win in a five-game winning streak since the WVU game. Vanderbilt is a solid defensive club that also likes to play at a quick pace, something they’ll see a lot of from their opponent tonight. Missouri loves the pressure defense and fast pace, ranking #14 in tempo. Mizzou is a prolific offensive team because of all the extra possessions they create, averaging 85 PPG on 48% shooting. The Tigers love to force turnovers (#8 in defensive turnover percentage) and should get quite a few against a Vanderbilt team ranked #226 in turnover percentage, but defense has been a struggle for them. Missouri is ranked in the 200’s in effective field goal percentage against, three and two point defense as well as opponents free throws per field goals meaning they foul a lot. Mike Anderson’s team also gives the ball away an average of 15 times per contest, less than they force but still a cause for concern. Aside from the great game against Georgetown last week, Missouri hasn’t been tested by a strong opponent. They were down early against the Hoyas and it was interesting to look at the box score and see the minutes break down for the Mizzou players. Anderson stuck with his starters, playing them for 202 of the 225 (90%) available minutes in the game. While it’s inconclusive, that may have resulted in lots of tired legs towards the end of regulation and certainly in the overtime session. Michael Dixon and Marcus Denmon anchor the Tiger back court. Dixon takes great care of the ball, averaging 2.56 assists for every turnover, and will match up against Brad Tinsley (9/5/5), also a good distributor. Denmon is Anderson’s biggest three point threat, hitting 56% of his treys this season. Denmon against Vanderbilt’s John Jenkins will be a great matchup to watch. Jenkins, one of the best three point shooters in the nation last season at 48%, struggled early but has hit 14-29 (48%) over his last four games, right on his number from last year. Overall he’s still at 38% but leads the team in scoring at 19 PPG. Jenkins struggled in Vandy’s last game against Belmont but expect him to be fired up and ready to go against a guy like Denmon. The Commodores need a good outing from Jenkins to be able to win but they also have a secondary deep threat in Jeffery Taylor, something Missouri doesn’t have at this time with their other shooters struggling a bit. As a team, Vanderbilt attempts an average of 21 three’s a game. Another great matchup will occur in the paint between Mizzou’s Ricardo Ratliffe and Vandy’s Festus Ezeli. Ezeli has three inches and 15 pounds on Ratliffe but the Missouri forward is more athletic and can move the Nigerian center around. Ezeli averages 13/8 on 67% FG while blocking two shots a game. Ratliffe will have his hands full but should be able to draw fouls with his superior athleticism. With Ezeli in the fold, Vanderbilt has a rebounding advantage and they do a great job keeping their opponents off the offensive boards. That’ll be important against a Missouri team that’s always looking for extra shots and possessions. Should this game come down to free throws, advantage Vandy. The Commodores shoot 76% from the line as a team led by Jenkins’ 91%. Vanderbilt can definitely win this game but it’ll be tough in the raucous environment of Mizzou Arena. While this game probably won’t be as good as the Mizzou/Georgetown game, expect a great one in Columbia this evening.

SEC/Big East Invitational: #21 Kentucky vs. #22 Notre Dame (in Louisville, KY) – 9:30 pm on ESPN (****)

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RTC Instant Analysis: Evening Games

Posted by nvr1983 on December 4th, 2010

As part of our on-going attempt to bring you the best college basketball coverage on-line, we are introducing a new feature where we give your our thoughts after each set of games over the weekend. We’ll be back later tonight for the late game analysis.

  1. Illinois is back: Illinois might have missed the NCAA Tournament last year, but this year they should be a Sweet 16 team and have an outside shot of making the Final Four. Much like Florida, who actually made the NCAA Tournament last year, the Fighting Illini did not that much in terms of new players (freshman Jereme Richmond is the one major addition with 9.0 PPG and 4.4 RPG), but unlike the Gators they have made significant strides this year. A convincing win at Gonzaga along with solid wins against Maryland and UNC should help ensure that Bruce Weber gets back to the NCAA Tournament agian barring a major me)ltdown in the Big Ten.
  2. Demetri steals the show: Kyrie Irving may be dominating the headlines in the early season and he might be the best point guard in the country already, but Demetri McCamey isn’t far behind. The Illinois senior has been nothing short of sensational this season as he has averaged 15.3 PPG (on 52.3% FG and 51.6% 3-point shooting) and 7.8 APG (2nd in the nation) thus far. He has also shown the leadership ability that Bruce Weber expects coming up big in big games so far against Texas, Maryland, UNC, and Gonzaga. The Fighting Illini may not win the loaded Big Ten this year, but because of McCamey they will have a chance in every game they play this year.
  3. Is Syracuse a top 10 team?: Syracuse may have escaped yet again, but I can’t believe that anyone would be buying this team after what we have seen this season. They will probably still be a top 10 team next week, but they have been underwhelming so far as they have yet to play a legitimate NCAA Tournament team yet, but have struggled with a 3-point win at home against William & Mary, a 3-point win against Michigan, a 4-point win against Georgia Tech (lost to Kennesaw State by 16), and a 6-point win at home against NC State (lost to Wisconsin by 39). Simply put, Jim Boeheim cannot be looking forward to their game against Michigan State on Tuesday. If the Orange don’t improve significantly before that time, I would expect the Spartans to rebound from their loss against Duke and expose the Orange.
  4. Steve Donahue is getting it done at BC: Boston College might not threaten Duke this year, but things are looking good in Chestnut Hill where new coach Steve Donahue has the Eagles playing solidly. Outside of an early loss to Yale (perhaps he thought he was still at Cornell), the Eagles only loss has been against Wisconsin. The Eagles also piled up wins against Texas A&M, California, and Indiana before beating an undefeated UMass team today. The Eagles don’t have a “star”, but the combination of Reggie Jackson, Joe Trapani, and Corey Raji provide them with a solid nucleus and they have a good group of role players who can contribute on any given night (like Josh Southern tonight with 16 points on 7/7 FG and 7 rebounds). Look for the Eagles to compete for a NCAA Tournament spot in the weak ACC this year.
  5. Who is in charge of scheduling?: Who is in charge of planning these big in-season match-ups? I understand that it is hard to do too much because every school has a lot of committments and there are a ton of sports, but why would you schedule Duke-Butler, a rematch of the national title game against the SEC title game? I’m not going to blame the people who “run” college basketball for scheduling against Oregon-Oregon State because nobody expected that to be for a BCS title game bid, but the SEC title game has essentially been a game that is a direct bid for the BCS title game. Even if it was scheduled on this date was scheduled well ahead of time ESPN should have been able to adjust the time to give the game the attention it deserves.
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