Zach Hayes is RTC’s  resident bracketologist.  He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.

The biggest note: this is the most subjective bracket of the process. With RPI still evolving into a tool worth considering substantially, I had to construct this bracket primarily on 1) quality wins and bad losses in non-conference play, 2) non-conference SOS and 3) simple W-L record. Even conference RPI can’t be factored in yet because teams have played, at most, three conference games. With RPI rounding into form as January progresses, the bracket will switch from a more subjective process (had to use the eye test a few times, which I despise) to a more objective compilation.

• The #1 and #2 seeds were fairly straightforward. Due to Syracuse tripping up at home to Pittsburgh Saturday, the process became much easier and the four undefeated teams remaining earned the #1 nod. Three Big East teams earned nods as a #2 seed, all with one loss: West Virginia, Villanova and Syracuse. Duke was the other obvious choice for the second line.
• One of the more interesting cases was Ohio State. How much do I penalize them for the loss of Evan Turner? I was fairly harsh in the opening bracket following a discouraging defeat to Michigan and a blowout loss at Wisconsin. I’m fairly sure the Buckeyes will be moving further up the bracket when Turner is back in the fold a few weeks from now, but a #11 seed at 0-2 in the Big 10 and wins over California and Florida State seemed appropriate.
• USC will not be included in any of my brackets this year. It’s a shame because they have strong computer numbers and are building a handful of quality wins including Tennessee and UNLV. Like the Pac-10 needed to be hurt any further.
• Some notable snubs were Miami, Oregon and Saint Mary’s.  The point is pretty straightforward: I’m not going to reward you for playing a soft schedule. Miami is 14-1 but has the #85 RPI and #328 SOS in the nation with only notable wins against Minnesota and South Carolina. Oregon may be 2-0 in the Pac-10 but they have some BAD losses and need to do more to find their way into the bracket. The win at Oregon is looking stronger for St. Mary’s, but they still need to do more.
• Since we’re so early, I did factor in “quality” losses for some teams. For example, Dayton lost by under 10 to both Villanova and Kansas State (both top-10 teams) and by 2 at New Mexico (top-20 team). They deserve some credit for those close losses.
• Since we’re early in conference play, I determined the automatic bids among undefeated squads by which team had the highest RPI. I figured I should stay consistent with this throughout the season.

Last Four In: Northwestern, Richmond, Missouri State, Vanderbilt.

Last Four Out: Oklahoma State, Miami (FL), Saint Mary’s, Oregon.

Automatic bids: Vermont, Temple, Duke, East Tennessee State, Kansas, West Virginia, Weber State, Radford, Purdue, Pacific, William & Mary, UAB, Butler, Cornell, Siena, Western Michigan, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Quinnipiac, Murray State, California, Army, Kentucky, Western Carolina, UT-San Antonio, Texas Southern, Oakland, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, Louisiana Tech.

Bids per conference: ACC (7), Big East (7), SEC (6), Big 12 (6), Big 10 (6), Mountain West (3), Atlantic-10 (3), Pac-10 (2), Missouri Valley (2).

Next bracket: January 18

Patrick Marshall of White & Blue Review is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley Conference.

Current records and my standings (Last Week):

1. Wichita State (11-1) (2)
2. Missouri State (10-1) (1)
3. Northern Iowa (9-1) (3)
4. Southern Illinois (7-2) (4)
5. Illinois State (9-2) (5)
6. Indiana State (8-3) (6)
7. Evansville (6-4) (7)
8. Bradley (5-5) (8)
9. Creighton (5-6) (10)
10. Drake (5-7) (9)

STORIES OF THE WEEK

Valley wins the first MVC-MWC Challenge — Northern Iowa defeated Wyoming to take the Valley to win 5-4 the first ever MVC-MWC Challenge.   UNI, Illinois State, Missouri State, Indiana State, and Wichita State were the winners while Creighton, Southern Illinois, Bradley, and Drake lost.  But you look at who they lost to (New Mexico, BYU, San Diego State, and UNLV) and it still provides some questions on which conference is actually better.   But for this season, the Valley can claim they are better than the Mountain West Conference.

Surprises at the top — A year ago, you would not have seen Missouri State and Wichita State at the top of the conference with Creighton and Bradley towards the bottom.  But this is how the crazy Valley non-conference season has gone so far.  The Valley is an impressive 80-32 (.714) in non-conference play with some nice wins against top level conferences that have been missing over the past few seasons.

Conference Play starts this week — Missouri Valley Conference play starts with each team playing three games over the next week.  It will start out fast and furious and there will be some teams that will jump out of the pack early, but will be down to the wire this season as most teams feel that they can win the conference.

NON-CONFERENCE EVALUATION

• Missouri State – 10-1 is a lot better than the 6-5 record I predicted before the season started.  The Bears have been the surprise of the Valley so far this season.  It has been behind the solid play of Kyle Weems and Eastern Kentucky transfer Adam Leonard.  They have wins over Auburn, Tulsa and Air Force with their only blemish being an overtime loss to close out the non-conference at Arkansas last week.  The conference slate starts fast for them with Evansville, Illinois State and Northern Iowa this week.
• Wichita State — The Shockers are not much of a surprise to me because they have done exactly how I expected them to this season.  Fans in Wichita are excited about seeing what they were expecting when Gregg Marshall came in to run the program after Mark Turgeon left. Wins over Iowa, Texas Tech, and TCU are their big wins with a loss to Pitt in the CBE Classic their only faltering.  A trip to Illinois State awaits and then they host Drake and Bradley this week to open Valley play.
• Northern Iowa — After losing against Depaul in the opening round of the Paradise Jam, many were skeptical that the Panthers could be as good or better as they turned out to be last season.  However, they turned things around rather quickly and have garnered wins over Boston College and Siena and swept the State of Iowa series against Iowa St. and Iowa.   They are on an eight game winning streak as they visit Creighton to open conference play before hosting Evansville and Missouri State.
• Southern Illinois – At times, Southern Illinois look like they are back on track this season.   They haven’t gotten key wins against UNLV and St. Louis to make me feel like they are the Salukis of old.   They will be tested early as Indiana State comes to town, then they hit the road to Bradley and Illinois State.
• Evansville — With all the rebuilding Evansville has had to do this season, they are actually playing like I expected with their 6-4 record.   They took Butler and Western Kentucky to the limit, but came up a little short in those upset bids.  The Purple Aces, however, could start off 0-3 in the conference with Missouri State, Northern Iowa and Creighton on the slate.
• Indiana State — The Sycamores are an interesting team sitting at 8-3.  They won against Colorado State, Western Kentucky and Oral Roberts, but then lost winnable games against Coastal Carolina and Ball State.  With the on-again/off-again suspension of point guard Harry Marshall, the rollercoaster season could continue.  Three of the first four games are on the road in MVC play with Southern Illinois, Creighton and Drake on the slate this week.
• Bradley — Expectations were high in Peoria to start the season, but while a season-opening road loss at BYU and another to Oklahoma State in Las Vegas were somewhat expected, their three game losing streak to close out the non-conference season was not.  Injuries have plagued the Braves but there are enough veterans on the team to pick up the slack.  A win against Illinois will look nice down the line and will help the Valley as a whole, but their non-conference record will hurt them in the long run.  Bradley will try to get back on track with a game at Drake, but then next up on the slate is Southern Illinois and Wichita State.  I still question whether a Bradley team can finish in the top four in the Valley.
• Creighton — Creighton has probably been the most disappointing team in the Valley so far this season with the highest expectations.  Creighton scheduled up this season by playing in a solid Old Spice Classic field and going on the road against Dayton, George Mason and New Mexico.  Unfortunately all of those road games turned into losses.  What made it even worse is that all of those games were winable and Creighton had leads late in the game that they couldn’t close out.  Their five wins at home have been against patsies like Houston Baptist, Savannah St. and Florida A&M.  So unless Creighton end up winning the Valley decidedly, there is a chance they will not fulfill the annual expectation of a 20-win season.  They open up with Northern Iowa at home and then hit the New Year’s road trip to Evansville and Illinois St.
• Illinois State — Many were skeptical about the Redbirds’ non-conference slate again this season to really know how tough this team might be.  Well, the gravy train stopped with a loss against the Bracketbuster return game with Niagara and then the next game at Ohio.  Illinois State learned from those losses with a nice road win at Utah as part of the MVC/MWC Challenge.  The Redbirds host Wichita State and Southern Illinois and then head over to Missouri State this week.  Will they start 3-0, 0-3 or somewhere in between?
• Drake — Drake shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone how they have been this season.  Other than their dream season a couple of years ago, Drake has performed at its normal bottom-of-the-conference ways.  Losing to SIU-Edwardsville in Drake’s own tournament was the low point so far, and losing to Iowa who has struggled heavily this season really doesn’t make the Bulldogs look very good.  Bradley, Wichita State and Indiana State start the conference season for them.

WEEK AHEAD AND GAMES TO WATCH

Conference season goes into full swing this week and there are some intriguing matchups to kick things off.

• 12/29, Northern Iowa @ Creighton (Local TV)—This is the first time the top two conference teams from the previous season have met to kick off the following conference season in about 20 years. Creighton needs to get off on an early start against the conference favorites and needs the win at this point in the season more than the Panthers.
• 12/29, Wichita State @ Illinois State—This will be a key early matchup between two teams who want to be in the conversation at the end of the season. The Shockers have had problems on the road in conference play. They will need to turn that around to be in the race.
• 1/1, Southern Illinois @ Bradley—Both teams are going in opposite directions and it will be interesting to see if Bradley can rebound from a disappointing non-conference season.
• 1/1, Illinois St. @ Missouri State—The Bears are undefeated at home this season so far and the surprise team of the Valley gets its first big conference test.
• 1/3, Missouri State @ Northern Iowa—Both teams are in the running for the MVC crown at this point. The Panthers want to prove that they are the cream of the Valley.
• 1/3, Southern Illinois @ Illinois State—Already after one week, one of these teams could be in a lot of trouble after this game is over as both teams have a challenging first week of conference play.

RTC contributor and bracketologist Zach Hayes will deliver ten permeating thoughts every Tuesday as the season progresses.

1. While the slate en route to West Virginia’s 8-0 start hasn’t been laced with eventual NCAA Tournament participants (the exception being a neutral court win over Texas A&M), the start is nonetheless impressive for a Bob Huggins-coached squad expected to remain near the top-10 from start to finish. While Da’Sean Butler plays the role of go-to scorer and senior leader, it’s sophomore forward Kevin Jones that’s been the stabilizing force behind the undefeated start. Jones has scored in double-figures every single game for Huggins, including 23 on a wildly efficient 9-10 from the floor in the squeaker against Cleveland State last Saturday. Jones also leads West Virginia in rebounding and has upped his FG% nearly 10 points from his up-and-down freshman campaign. As long as Jones keeps playing consistent basketball, he should complete a formidable frontcourt along with Devin Ebanks, Wellington Smith, John Flowers and Cam Thoroughman.

2. Yes, I realize it’s only December, and talking about awards handed out in April seems like a waste of time. Still, just for fun, it’s not out of the question to give Northwestern’s Bill Carmody the early nod for National Coach of the Year. Many preseason prognosticators felt this could be the year the Wildcats break their embarrassing streak of never reaching the NCAA Tournament. When all-Big Ten performer Kevin Coble and complimentary piece Jeff Ryan both went down with season-ending injuries early, all hope was lost. Fast forward to late December and Northwestern has resurrected their season behind the 1-2 punch of Michael Thompson and Jeff Shurna (who should both be back in 2010-11 along with Coble). Carmody’s bunch fell to Butler in November, but have rebounded with wins in Chicago against Notre Dame and Iowa State, a victory at NC State and a home win vs. Stanford.

3. Each and every year, college basketball fans debate which conference holds the mantle as the strongest in the land. A season ago, the Big East clearly garnered that honor. Heading into 2009-10, many felt the ACC or Big Ten would prove the strongest, while the Big East emerged in the early weeks as the frontrunner behind five top-15 teams in Syracuse, West Virginia, Connecticut, Georgetown and Villanova. After that elite group, one can debate eventual in/out status for the rest of the conference. But from top to bottom, no conference tops the Big 12 this season. The best two teams in the nation, Kansas and Texas, reign are supreme at the top. Kansas State is climbing the ranks and Texas A&M appears on the fringe of the top 25. Texas Tech’s first loss came on Saturday at Wichita State following a 10-0 start. Oklahoma State has only one falter and Oklahoma should hit their stride as the season wears on. Even the lower squads like Baylor, Iowa State and Missouri are dangerous. The early nod goes to the Big 12 as the premiere conference in college basketball. Playing the best individual basketball in the conference is not Aldrich or Collins or James or Warren, but Kansas State’s Jacob Pullen.

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Patrick Marshall of White and Blue Review is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley Conference.

Current Records and My Standings (Last Week’s Rank)

1. Missouri St. (9-0) (1)
2. Wichita St. (9-1) (2)
3. Northern Iowa (7-1) (5)
4. Illinois St. (7-1) (3)
5. Southern Illinois (5-2) (8)
6. Bradley (5-3) (4)
7. Indiana St. (6-3) (6)
8. Evansville (4-3) (7)
9. Drake (5-5) (10)
10. Creighton (3-5) (9)

STORIES OF THE WEEK

• Missouri St. wins two more games.  The Bears are continuing to win, much to the chagrin of my pre-season rankings. I thought they would have at least 3 losses by now. Home court advantage was probably a help to their early success, but they also have two wins on the road and are in the middle of a three-game road trip. It would be pretty amazing if they finish the non-conference season undefeated by getting road wins at St. Louis and Arkansas, both very winnable games.
• Creighton loses on the road again.  Creighton is now 0-5 on the road this season and could finish 2009 with a losing record which would be the first time in a long time. This week it was to George Mason as they led most of the game and collapsed in the last few minutes of the game, helped by a technical foul on coach Dana Altman with 18 seconds left in the game with Creighton up by two.  Creighton lost the game, 75-72.
• Shockers looking pretty good.  Other than the loss to Pittsburgh in the CBE Classic, Wichita State  is playing some good basketball lately and have gained a lot of confidence with a couple road wins at UMKC and Cleveland State as well as some guarantee games at Koch Arena.  They will be a force come conference play.
• UNI sweeps Iowa teams.  For the first time since 2006-07 season, UNI beat both Iowa and Iowa St. in the annual matchup between the Iowa schools. The Panthers are on a roll as of late and creating quite the resume’ with wins over Iowa, Iowa St., Boston College, and Siena.
• Read the rest of this entry »

Patrick Marshall of the White and Blue Review is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley conference.

MY STANDINGS (current record/last week’s)

1. Missouri St.  7-0 (1)
2. Wichita St.   7-1 (2)
3. Illinois St.  7-0 (4)
4. Bradley  5-2 (3)
5. Northern Iowa  5-1 (7)
6. Indiana St.  5-2 (5)
7. Evansville  4-2 (8)
8. Southern Illinois  3-2 (6)
9. Creighton  3-4 (10)
10. Drake  3-5 (9)

STORIES OF THE WEEK

• Still two undefeated teams — Missouri St. is still undefeated seven games into their season.  The Bears have had some nice wins against Tulsa and Auburn along with some outside sharpshooting.  They are shooting almost 42% from three point range and holding opponents to under 60 points per game.
• The Redbirds on the other hand are also 7-0, but against some questionable competition.  As expected, though, the veterans of Osiris Eldridge, Lloyd Phillips and Dinma Odiakosa have led the way for Illinois St. in scoring and minutes played.  At the same time this team has also escaped some close calls.  We may not know more about the Redbirds until their trip to Utah in a couple of weeks.
• Evansville double OT thriller — Evansville went into Tennessee Tech this week trying to rebound from a couple of losses.  Who knew it would be one of the more dramatic games of the season so far.  Freshman Colt Ryan hit a 12-foot shot with five seconds remaining in the second overtime to lead the them to a thrilling 91-90 victory.  Ryan played a game high 47 minutes of the contest.
• Drake hits new low — Usually when you setup your own tournament, schools usually set it up so they are likely to win it.  With Drake opening up against SIU-Edwardsville who is playing a full D-1 conference slate this season, you expected Drake to advance to the next day final at home.  Well instead, SIU-E knocked off the Bulldogs, 60-58.  SIU-E, by the way, went on to win the Drake weekend tourney.

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Patrick Marshall of White & Blue Review is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley Conference.

Current Records and My Standings:

1. Missouri State  (5-0)
2. Wichita State  (5-1)
3. Bradley  (4-2)
4. Illinois State  (6-0)
5. Indiana State  (5-2)
6. Southern Illinois  (3-1)
7. Northern Iowa  (4-1)
8. Evansville  (2-2)
9. Drake  (2-4)
10. Creighton  (2-4)

STORIES OF THE WEEK

Creighton lays an egg.  Creighton had Michigan on the ropes in their opening game of the Old Spice Classic with a five point lead in the closing minutes but let Michigan back.  It took a full court drive by Creighton’s Antoine Young to send the game to overtime, but the Bluejays could not stop Manny Harris from taking over the OT period and sending Creighton to a loss. They then looked like they were stuck in quicksand against Xavier in the losers’ bracket and then finished things off with a loss against a young Iona squad. Many thought Creighton had a chance to really make some noise in this tournament and even an opportunity to win it all, but they had the worst possible scenario happen to them, going 0-3 in the tournament and creating only negative buzz for themselves on the national stage.

Missouri St. On Fire.  Missouri St. took out an undefeated Tulsa team to up their record to 5-0.  They already have two nice wins on the season with their first road contest coming up this week.

Performance in tourney play.   The Valley had varying degrees of success in the holiday tourneys held last week. Wichita St. lost to Pittsburgh, but then came back to defeat Iowa in the CBE Classic.  Bradley kept Oklahoma St. close before losing to them, but turned around to defeat Illinois.  Creighton, as mentioned earlier, went 0-3 in the Old Spice Classic.  The conference is now 36-17 in the non-conference season.

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David Sanchirico is the RTC correspondent for the MAC.

Current Standings

East Division

Team Record

1. Ohio   3-0
2. Kent State   3-0
3. Bowling Green   1-1
4. Buffalo   1-1
5. Akron   0-1
6. Miami (Ohio)   0-2

West Division

Team Record

1. Ball State   1-0
2. Eastern Michigan   1-0
3. Central Michigan   2-1
4. Western Michigan   1-1
5. Northern Illinois   0-2
6. Toledo   0-2

The MAC continues to struggle during out-of-conference play as potential upsets slipped out of teams’ hands, others succumbed in blowouts, and teams that were expected to win, didn’t.

But there were also some good showings from a few surprise teams, including a club from Oxford, Ohio that almost pulled off the biggest upset in recent memory.  The first week of basketball really set the stage for what should be an intense and competitive season in the MAC.

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Patrick Marshall of Bluejay Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Big 12 and Missouri Valley Conferences.

Current Records and My Standings (Conference Record)(Last Week Rank)

1. Northern Iowa (18-8) (12-3)(1)
2. Creighton (21-6)(11-4) (2)
3. Illinois St. (21-5) (10-5)(3)
4. Bradley (14-12) (8-7) (4)
5. Evansville (15-10) (7-8) (5)
6. Wichita St. (13-13) (7-8) (8)
7. Drake (15-12) (6-9) (6)
8. Indiana St. (7-19) (5-10) (10)
9. Southern Illinois (11-15) (6-9) (7)
10. Missouri St. (10-16) (3-12) (9)

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Patrick Marshall of Bluejay Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Big 12 and Missouri Valley Conferences.

Current Records and My Standings (Conference Record)(Last Week Rank)

1. Northern Iowa (17-7) (11-2)(1)
2. Creighton (19-6)(9-4) (2)
3. Illinois St. (19-5) (8-5)(3)
4. Bradley (13-11) (7-6) (4)
5. Evansville (15-8) (7-6) (5)
6. Drake (15-10) (6-7) (6)
7. Southern Illinois (11-13) (6-7) (7)
8. Wichita St. (11-13) (5-8) (8)
9. Missouri St. (10-14) (3-10) (9)
10. Indiana St. (5-19) (3-10) (10)

The Missouri Valley Conference is part of the ESPNU Bracketbusters event (February 21st) once again this season and received 4 games on one of the ESPN family of networks:

• Illinois State at Niagara (2/20)
• Miami (OH) at Evansville
• Northern Iowa at Siena
• George Mason at Creighton

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Patrick Marshall of Bluejay Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Big 12 and Missouri Valley Conferences.

Current Records and My Standings (Conference Record) (Last Week Rank)

1. Northern Iowa (14-6) (8-1)(1)
2. Illinois State (17-3) (6-3)(2)
3. Bradley (12-8) (6-3) (4)
4. Drake (14-7) (5-4) (3)
5. Creighton (15-6)(5-4) (5)
6. Evansville (12-7) (4-5) (6)
7. Southern Illinois (9-11) (4-5) (7)
8. Wichita State (9-11) (3-6) (9)
9. Missouri State (9-11) (2-7) (8)
10. Indiana State (4-16) (2-7) (10)

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