Vegas Odds: Season Edition Vol. 2
Posted by rtmsf on January 6th, 2009John Stevens is a featured columnist for RTC. His columns will appear on Tuesdays throughout the season.

John Stevens is a featured columnist for RTC. His columns will appear on Tuesdays throughout the season.
Far be it from us to question Louisville head coach Rick Pitino’s motivational techniques with his players. After all, success is a choice, he leads to succeed and all that (not to be confused with his lesser-known tome, Cruise to Lose, favored by Boston-area readers). But even we were a little perplexed with the tactics Coach P employed last week with his emotionally fragile confounding PG, Edgar Sosa. And what makes it even more interesting is that Pitino decided to share the gory details of this alleged conversation with the entire world! From Kentucky.com:
U of L Coach Rick Pitino had a heart-to-heart with Sosa and suggested that the 6-foot-1 junior from New York transfer. Sosa had been playing the worst ball of his career coming into Sunday’s game. He was averaging just five points on 30 percent shooting from the field and 20 percent shooting behind the three-point line. Sosa also struggled on the defensive end to contain dribble penetration. “I basically told him that if I were you I’d transfer, and I wouldn’t wait,” Pitino said. “You could go somewhere and have a year to learn the system. The fans aren’t happy with you, you’re not happy with yourself, and you’re not having fun. We’ll look at some schools that don’t play any defense. There aren’t that many, but I know a few.“
Wow. What a tremendous display of passive-aggressive admonition from coach to player!
What’s even better is how Pitino phrased Sosa’s “decision” after he had a great game against arch-rival Kentucky (18 pts incl. the game-winning three) on Sunday:
“He decided to stay, and I’m happy he made that choice,” Pitino said.
Success is indeed a choice, right? Nevermind that Pitino was the one strongly suggesting Sosa transfer (Sosa made it clear he didn’t want to leave the U of L program), not the other way around. So we’re wondering, which of Pitino’s SIAC rules does this fall under? From a quick perusal, it appears that #3, #5, and #7 are particularly appropriate here. Let’s take a quick glance.
#3. Build a Team Ego. Yep, nothing says building confidence like throwing a player who is struggling with confidence issues under the team bus by strongly suggesting that he to transfer to a school that doesn’t “play any defense.” He might as well have publicly called Sosa “the biggest disappointment of my career” and/or “someone I wouldn’t trust with your ____.”
#5. Act Decisively (cf. with #6. Be Adaptable). Acting decisively would have been to simply quit pussyfooting around and kicking Sosa off the team. Sure, he wasn’t necessarily breaking any team rules (other than sucking), but that hasn’t stopped Pitino before (see: Rodrick Rhodes, Kentucky, 1995). Of course, maybe Coach P was really following the corollary rule #6, and he was being adaptable, allowing Sosa another chance to suck the life out of his backcourt before finally getting booted. (note: of course we realize that Sosa broke out of his slump, but does anyone alive expect that to continue through March?).
# 9. Live for the Future, Not in the Past. Well, it certainly appears that Pitino was dwelling on the past, as in Sosa’s past performance, when he invited Sosa to transfer elsewhere. But we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt here, because surely Pitino foresaw that Sosa would have a great game against Kentucky and all of Louisville’s point guard problems would be solved forever more. Right? He’s Nostradomus like that.
Obsessed With Sports will be providing coverage to RTC throughout the season.
Tuesday, January 6
Connecticut(5) at West Virginia(22)
Behind the Line: WVU is on fire and have covered their last 3 games while Uconn has failed to cover their last 2.
Ohio St. at Michigan St(12)
Behind the Line: The Buckeyes have dropped their last 3 against the spread while the Spartans have done the exact opposite.
Wednesday, January 7
Davidson at Duke(2)
Behind the Line: Similar to the first game, Davidson is not so hot while Duke is scorching. Davidson has dropped 4 straight against the spread and Duke has covered their last 3.
Gonzaga at Tennessee(25)
Behind the Line: Two teams that are not playing their best ball. The Zags have lost 3 straight and the Vols are coming off a loss at Kansas. Tennessee is undefeated at home while Gonzaga is just 1-2 on the road. Both of these teams score a lot of points. Combined, 6 out of their last 9 games have gone to the over.
Thursday, January 8
Wright St. at Butler(20)
Behind the Line: Wright State is 7-7 this season and are 1-5 on the road. However, they have covered their last 4 games against the spread albeit against lesser competition. Butler has covered 4 of their last 5 games. There is a possibility that the line could be friendly due to these occurrences.
With most conference schedules starting to get into full swing, I thought I would start doing Set Your Tivos daily with a weekend edition to cover the games on Saturday and Sunday.
7 PM
– #5 UConn at #22 West Virginia on ESPNU: Just another night in the Big East for the Huskies, who responded to last week’s loss to Georgetown with a 80-49 beatdown over an exhausted Rutgers team. Tonight, Jim Calhoun’s Huskies go to Morgantown, WV to face Bob Huggins and the Mountaineers. Joe Alexander is gone, but Alex Ruoff and Da’Sean Butler have stepped up to fill the void. The Mountaineers have been impressive this season with wins over Ohio State (on the road), Iowa, Ole Miss (on the road), and Cleveland State. However, their lack of a solid interior presence could mean a big game for Hasheem Thabeet IF (big if) the Huskies decide to use him. If A.J. Price and the Huskies utilize Thabeet, they should roll in this one.
– Ohio State at #12 Michigan State on ESPN2 and ESPN360.com: The Spartans are finally starting to show the form that earned them an early-season #5 ranking. Honestly, outside of this being a league game, I don’t really expect this one to be close just based on the momentum these two teams have (along with the continued absence of David Lighty). Of course, since it’s a league game, I’ll probably be completely wrong. In either case, this game will be worth watching to see what kind of shape the Buckeyes are in. I don’t think they will be able to beat the Spartans in East Lansing if Raymar Morgan and Kalin Lucas are playing well, but it should be entertaining to watch.
9 PM
– #7 Texas at Arkansas on ESPN2 and ESPN360.com: A week ago I wouldn’t have even thought about watching this game and I think the Longhorns may have been just as disinterested. However, with the Razorbacks victory over Oklahoma on New Year’s Eve this game has suddenly become more interesting. I’m not quite sure what to make of the Razorbacks who lost to Missouri State back in November, but haven’t lost since before Thanksgiving. The key to the game will the play of Michael Washington, the Razorback center who played national POY favorite Blake Griffin to a virtual standstill on New Year’s Eve. It will be interesting to see the match-up at the 5 as Rick Barnes will likely counter with Connor Atchley, who has the outside game to take Washington away from the post. I’ll also be intrigued to see what Arkansas does to neutralize A.J. Abrams after Willie Warren went for 35 points against the Razorback guards.
– Alabama at #11 Clemson on Fox Sports South and ESPN Full Court: I’m interested in this game more to see if the Tigers are legit. It just seems like they always start the season off undefeated amassing a 15-0 record before falling apart and usually missing the NCAA tournament. However, this year they managed to win a few good out-of-conference games (Temple along with road wins at Illinois, Miami, and South Carolina). The Crimson Tide will need big games out of their backcourt of Alonzo Gee, Ronald Steele, and Senario Hillman if they want to pull off the upset. The Tigers will need to start winning games like this if they ever want to break into the ACC elite and compete with UNC, Duke, and Wake Forest for a league title.
– #14 Purdue at Penn State on The Big Ten Network: The Boilermakers will be looking to rebound after opening Big Ten playing with an OT loss to Illinois. Prior to that, the Boilermakers had been playing very well with a big win over Davidson. They will have to do it against the Nittany Lions who also are coming off a loss (at Wisconsin). The game will likely come down to how each team’s top 3 players play. The Boilermakers will be relying on E’Twaun Moore, Robbie Hummel, and JaJuan Johnson while the Nittany Lions will count on Talor Battle, Jamelle Cornley, and Stanley Pringle (possibly the only college basketball player in the nation who would be advised to stay out of the library).
Since the ATB writers have been in a self-induced coma as a result of last week’s NYE festivities (hey, it’s hard living in your mom’s basement), rather than rehashing a bunch of stale games from Wed-Sun, we thought it’d make more sense to just hit some highlights and trends of things we’re watching as the haze continues to wear off from our vision and the strange burning sensations subside.
Some News & Notes.
The Big East is insane this year. In just the last three weeks, we’ve seen UConn look like the most likely hurdle for North Carolina through its clutch win in Seattle vs. Gonzaga. Then we jumped on the Georgetown bandwagon after the Hoyas proceeded to go up to Storrs and thump those Huskies behind a balanced offensive attack and its standard sticky defense. Only for our mis/pre-conceptions to be challenged again when Pittsburgh chose to use this weekend’s matchup in DC at Georgetown to manhandle (manhandle? try superman-handle… the Panthers had more o-rebs – 18 – than the Hoyas had total – 17) the same team that looked so fantastic against UConn five days prior. We really don’t know what to make of this league with these performances. Given the way things have gone so far, Pitt should now be in position to get its bell rung by UConn in Western Pa. We just don’t know. One thing we think we can say without too much hedging is that UConn, Georgetown, Pitt, and possibly Notre Dame, Syracuse and Louisville (if those three ever get it completely going), are the best top six to a conference we’ve ever seen. It’s likely that all six of those teams would win the SEC and compete with UCLA for the Pac-10 crown. In 1995, the ACC had a really strong top four, but nothing like this group. As for Georgetown, we noted after the UConn game that their lack of strong bench production could end up biting them in the arse down the stretch, and it was absolutely exhibited here (2 pts). This will ultimately be the Hoyas’ downfall, as their 29-game homecourt winning streak was snapped when Pitt went on a 17-4 run to blow open a 40-40 tie game. As much as we love Greg Monroe, he was schooled by the savvier Dejuan Blair, who dropped 20/17 on the bigger player.
Monday update: Notre Dame 73, Georgetown 67. Notre Dame defeated Georgetown at home tonight, keeping their 44-game homecourt (and 19-game conference) winning streak alive. This occurred a mere two days after the Irish laid a leprechaun egg against St. John’s in NYC. Just like that, Georgetown is now 1-2 in the conference, when one week ago tonight they looked like the team to beat. Wow.
Is the SEC surging? It’s probably too little, too late, for the SEC to save its sinking sunk RPI in time to matter much come Selection Sunday, but the last few days of games showed that the league may have some fight left in it, following up on Arkansas’ upset of Oklahoma and pulling off a few key wins in games that its teams would have lost in November or early December. Consider the following scores:
Most Impressive Win of the Weekend. Wake Forest 94, BYU 87. It was televised to all of six people in America on The Mountain network, but Wake going into the viper’s pit known as the Marriott Center in Provo where the Cougars had won their last 53 games against all comers was very impressive. This was especially so given that Wake was teetering in the mid-second half before their assassin Jeff Teague (30/4/4) and muscle man James Johnson (22/15) took over the game, as the tired BYU players starting coming up short on their shots. What’s the difference between this Wake team and some others (most notably, the Chris Paul teams) in the recent past? This Deacon squad plays defense. Whether it’s by design or simply the absurd athleticism that three potential lottery picks in the starting lineup (Teague/Johnson/Aminu) provide, their length and size bothers teams, and as a result, the Deacs are currently the fifth most efficient defensive team in America. The UNC-Wake game next Sunday in Winston-Salem looms large to see just how good this Deacon team can be.
What Has Happened to the Zags? Utah 66, Gonzaga 65. It’s almost as if that loss to UConn two weeks ago took all the wind out of the sails of the Zags. Since that game, they’ve lost at home to Portland St. and now away at Utah in a game they had multiple chances to win. Next they’re at Tennessee on Wednesday before WCC play starts. Meanwhile, conference foe St. Mary’s is cruising along at 14-1, although against admittedly lesser competition. As for the Zags, there is top ten talent on this team, and they need to stop feeling sorry for themselves because they lost a heartbreaking game. Jeremy Pargo in particular needs to get his team’s attention and back on the right track, and Austin Daye needs to improve his shot selection (a 6’11 guy shouldn’t be shooting 44% from the field); otherwise, America’s favorite “underdog” from the Pacific Northwest will once again disappoint in March.
USC is the Most Confounding Team in America. USC 83, Oregon 62 & Oregon St. 62, USC 58 (OT). USC once again has several future NBA Draft picks on its roster, but as has been a trend in recent years for the Trojans, they are just as likely to shock you with an efficient evisceration of an opponent as they are to simply not show up for the engagement at all. Case in point was the Oregon two-fer last weekend. On Friday night, the Trojans went into Oregon’s Macarthur Court (one of the tougher venues in the Pac-10, even in a year when Oregon is clearly down) and completely humiliated the Ducks with a +21-pt second half (probably its best half of the year). Then, riding that wave of success, USC visited Oregon St. on Sunday – remember, the Beavers went 0-18 in the Pac-10 last season – and managed to hand OSU its first conference victory in 683 days. If anyone can explain this team, let us know.
Some Other Scores That Caught Our Eye.
On Tap Tuesday. check our now-daily Set Your Tivos feature for the games to watch tomorrow.
Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist. He’ll be regularly out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next three months.
Some notes before you check out the bracket:
Last Four In: Louisville, LSU, Missouri, Florida State
Last Four Out: Miami (FL), Creighton, Oklahoma State, Rhode Island
Next Four Out: Washington, Utah, South Carolina, Arizona
We felt tonight’s ATB of #1 UNC losing to Boston College deserves its own post.
Boston College 85, UNC 78. It’s conference season, isn’t it? In just the last seven days, we’ve now had the consensus way-better-than-everyone-else teams (UNC and UConn for those of you just tuning in) lose to conference foes. At home. In games where neither appeared to be the better team. There was considerable talk in the last couple of weeks of the likelihood of Carolina going undefeated this season, and we always sorta rolled our eyes when we heard such talk. There are several reasons for this:
So what happened tonight? It’s simple and it’s the same problem that Carolina had last year. Their offense is unmatched by anybody in the country, but their defense sometimes takes nights off. Against the 68th toughest schedule to date, the UNC offense is the second-most efficient offense in America, but only the 18th most efficient defense. Most of that ranking is attributable to Carolina’s ability to force turnovers (4th in the nation), but the Heels simply don’t get enough stops from their halfcourt defense – it ranks 60th at defending twos and 81st at defending threes – not exactly national-title defensive numbers there. (To be fair, last year’s Heels were even worse defensively, but UNC’s schedule will only get tougher from here on out, which should negatively impact those numbers.)

Let's Hope For His Sake He Didn't Get a Ticket After All (photo credit: Robert Willett/Raleigh News-Observer)
Tonight BC never flinched, shooting 45% from the field and hitting nine threes in the Dean Dome, led by Tyrese Rice’s 25/5/8 assts (who continues his torching of Carolina with 91 pts in his last three games against UNC) and Rakim Sanders’ 22/6/7 stls. BC not only got the lead in the first half (no big deal), but they held on to as UNC repeatedly got it down to two and even in the last few minutes as BC predictably went cold and UNC made its last-ditch efforts. Carolina didn’t help itself, though as the Heels were ice cold, especially in the second half (29%) and even more especially Ty Lawson (3-13), and the typically excellent Tar Heel free throwers (#13 nationally at 75%) only managed 5-12 in the last 8 minutes and 15-27 for the game. Perhaps most importantly, the Heels only forced BC into 10 turnovers, and it was clear that this was something head coach Al Skinner had drilled into his players’ heads, realizing that TOs are the kindling that fuels the UNC attack.
But BC was not to be denied tonight, and #1 goes down, only slightly spoiling the juicy UNC @ Wake matchup scheduled for next weekend. Whether BC uses this win as a springboard to a surprising season remains to be seen, as its only truly bad loss thus far was at St. Louis, but for tonight they are the giant-killers and the Eagles should be commended for taking it to the vaunted Heels in their house. Come Monday morning, we’d expect to see BC ranked for the first time in a couple of years, and that gasp you hear from western Pennsylvania has nothing to do with the Steelers – rather, it’s Jamie Dixon’s team prepping itself for it’s school-first #1 ranking in the AP Poll. College hoops, you gotta love it.
Since his 40 point explosion in Davidson’s first round victory over Gonzaga last March, college basketball fans have been bombarded with the Stephen Curry lovefest that has been spearheaded by Dick Vitale and ESPN. The WWL and other hoops aficionados loves to point out that Curry was ignored by every major school including Virginia Tech, the alma mater of his father NBA All-Star Dell Curry. Like every other basketball fan we love the way Stephen plays and his sweet stroke from the perimeter that has been augmented by a surprising ability to get to the hoop and finish. Since last March, it has been hard to find anybody that would be critical of the baby-faced assassin from Davidson, but here at Rush the Court we like to let our minds not our hearts analyze the situation.

Credit: www.zimbio.com
Like many NBA scouts, I have had my reservations about anointing Stephen the next great NBA player much to the chagrin of some Davidson fans. However, I continued to marvel (see my post minutes after Davidson knocked Gonzaga out of the NCAA tournament in the first round last year) at his ability to put up numbers despite the best efforts of the opposition (with the exception of the antics of Jimmy Patsos). After watching his performance against Purdue (5/26 FG), his third sub-par game this year against quality (BCS-level) competition, I started to wonder if all those BCS conference coaches and NBA scouts may have been on to something. So I started to crunch the numbers, which led to some very surprising results.
As you know if you read this blog, we take pride in providing our readers with the most comprehensive coverage of all 31 Division I conferences available in the so-called alt-media. But given our pitiful pay scale, sometimes perfectly good correspondents lose interest in providing their usual excellent coverage, and we need to find some new reliable bloggers/writers who are willing to step in and take over for certain leagues. This is especially important as we move into conference season and start thinking about bubbles and brackets over the next ten weeks until Selection Sunday. So please, if you have any interest in becoming an RTC correspondent for one or more of the below conferences, or if you know of someone who would, please drop us a comment below or send us an email.
Conferences Needing Correspondents
Email us at rushthecourtATyahooDOTcom if you think you can help…
Here’s this week’s blogpoll. Keep in mind that the votes were tallied including games through Monday night only…