Game #111.  RTC Live is back at Notre Dame this evening to see what this Cincinnati team is all about this season.

Notre Dame comes reeling into Wednesday’s match-up with Mick Cronin’s Cincinnati Bearcats following last week’s losses at Marquette and at St. John’s. The good news for Mike Brey’s squad is that their home court has been very kind to them this season, as they are undefeated at the Purcell Pavilion. The play of Irish seniors Ben Hansbrough and Tim Abromaitis will be key in igniting Notre Dame’s turnaround. Cincinnati comes into Wednesday’s showdown following a loss at Syracuse on Saturday. Cincinnati began the season with a sizzling 15-0 start and are still seen as a force to be reckoned with within the Big East. Juniors Yancy Gates an Dion Dixon lead the charge for the Bearcats, who are still searching for their first conference road victory. The frontcourts of each team will dictate who will win this game and this might be a problem for the Irish, who are still without starting forward Carleton Scott, who suffered a hamstring injury earlier this month. However, if Abromaitis, senior Tyrone Nash, and sophomore Jack Cooley are able to contain Gates and senior Ibrahima Thomas then the Irish will be in good shape to continue their home court winning ways.

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As of Wednesday, January 19, we are down to three unbeaten teams in college basketball — #1 Ohio State, #2 Kansas and #5 San Diego State.  Previously undefeated Duke lost last week at Florida State and Syracuse lost Monday at Pittsburgh, proving once again that conference play is a completely different animal than the non-conference slate.  With only a little over six weeks left in the regular season (which seems rather impossible), it is at least feasible that one of these three schools could run the regular season table and join 1991 UNLV and 2004 St. Joseph’s as the only two teams to have done so since Bob Knight’s dominant Indiana Hoosiers way back in 1976. 

If you look at the above teams and hoped to draw a conclusion from it, you might note that UNLV and St. Joe’s played in high mid-major conferences when they ran the regular season table.  Although there were a few decent opponents who could challenge the Rebels and Hawks in those leagues, they generally enjoyed more ‘nights off’ where they didn’t have to bring their best stuff to win the game.  Does this give Steve Fisher’s Aztecs an inherent advantage over OSU and Kansas by virtue of its Mountain West affiliation?  You might initially believe so, but not according to Pomeroy’s projections. 

We talked about how difficult it is for any team to run the table in the regular season back in December when Duke was gettting some buzz in that respect prior to Kyrie Irving’s toe injury.  There are any number of factors that can cause an off night, but the biggest confounding factor is how the schedule lays out in front of them.  According to the Pomeroy data, SDSU will be favored in all but two remaining games, Ohio State all but one, and Kansas will be the favorite in each of its final thirteen games.  But that’s just the math — it doesn’t account for the increasing attention and pressure that builds on a team as it approaches March with a zero in the right-hand column, nor does it consider all the other issues (injuries, team chemistry, tiring out, etc.) that teams face as the season wears on.  That’s what we’re here for, the analysis. 

Let’s take a look at the three unbeaten teams and make an educated prediction as to when each will finally lose.  It’s going to happen; the only question is the when and where.  Last year we went 3-1 in this exercise, and if we can do so well as to keep our head above .500 again this year, we’ll be pleased. 

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

Three interesting contests headline tonight’s schedule, including NC State’s endeavor to pull a shocker of its own over now-#4 Duke. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

#25 Cincinnati @ #16 Notre Dame – 7 pm on ESPN2 (****)

Abromaitis Plays the Most MPG for the Irish But Has Been Held Under His Season Average for Three Straight Games

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Pittsburgh, as Syracuse most recently learned, is a contender to win the national championship because they do one thing incredibly well and a lot of other things at a pretty high level. The one excellent thing they do is crash the offensive boards. They lead the nation in offensive rebounding rate, which is the driving force behind their current position as the most efficient offense in the country.  The Panthers do a lot of other things well– shooting, defensive rebounding, controlling turnovers– but nothing they do, in terms of advanced stats, really jumped out at me until I noticed that they are second in the nation in assists to field goals made. 69.8% of Pittsburgh’s field goals are assisted. This is interesting and pretty cool, but I began to wonder if it even mattered.

Assists are really weird, because in a way that’s not true of any other individual stat, they don’t really measure individual performance at all. To get a credited assist, the passer’s teammate has to knock down shots. Surround a healthy Kyrie Irving with four clones of someone who shoots as well as I do, and as crisp, creative, and well-timed as his passes are, he is not going to get too many assists, solely because, well, I am a terrible shooter.The box score for this game will show he got no assists. Did Kyrie have a bad game? Were his passes worse than usual?

Jamie Dixon's Team Moves the Ball Well

No, probably not, and that’s a tricky question. From close to the beginning of basketball box scores, assists have been tracked. In fact, in the early days of individual statistics, assists were really about the only thing tracked besides points and rebounds. Why do we even track assists? Maybe just because we always have. On some level, it’s easy to see what assists are supposed to do: assists are supposed to be a measure of play-making through passing. But as I mentioned, assists really aren’t all that great at measuring true ball movement because the statistic is hopelessly tangled up with field goal percentage. A team that makes more shots should generally have more assists. We don’t keep track of who made a great pass that led to a missed shot, and that really throws off our view of skilled passing and playmaking, which, after all, assists are supposed to measure.

There are more problems than that. We largely assume that assists are almost always positive. Passing is good. The problem is that sometimes it isn’t. Let’s suppose that we are on the fast-break, and I have the ball and my man beat. It would be easy for me to hit an uncontested layup. Instead, I drop the ball back to you, and you hit a slightly more difficult uncontested mid-range shot. I decreased the chance of us scoring with that pass, but got credited with the assist. That was a bad assist and these happen all the time. If you don’t believe me, watch Rajon Rondo “gun” for assists the next time you watch the Boston Celtics play.

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If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com. We will add to this post throughout the day as the submissions come in so keep on sending them.

Top 25 Games

• Alabama 68, #12 Kentucky 66: “Well, let’s make no mistake about it, the Kentucky Wildcats deserved to lose this basketball game, and they did. Once again, the Wildcats allowed an SEC team to physically dominate them in the interior, at least for one half of basketball, and that half was enough. It is a tough loss for Kentucky fans to swallow, and raises some serious questions about how far this team can realistically go in the post-season. It shouldn’t be overstated, but this loss was a major setback for Kentucky, one that could end up costing them at least one and possibly two seed positions in the tournament.” (A Sea of Blue)
• #18 Illinois 71, #19 Michigan State 62: “There is no overstating the importance of this win for the Fighting Illini, after suffering a heart breaking road loss against Penn State, and a soul crushing defeat against the Badgers in Madison, the team needed a win badly to keep themselves in the hunt for the Big Ten championship.” (Hail to the Orange)
• #22 Georgetown 80, Seton Hall 75: “Such is life in this year’s Big East. The conference is as competitive as it has ever been and every victory should be cherished, nurtured, and adored. Georgetown was down six points with three minutes to go, and rebounded to win 80-75 on the backs of their three seniors – Austin Freeman, Chris Wright and Julian Vaughn. Say what you will about New Jersey, but it will forever be known as the state where Austin got his groove back. Freeman scored an otherworldly 28 points on 13 shots, while Wright added 17 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists. Vaughn, much maligned for the first 35 minutes of the game, took over after Herb Pope fouled out, scoring a quick bucket and grabbing a crucial rebound.” (Casual Hoya)

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1. Former Mississippi State forward Elgin Bailey of the refusal to move his legs for His Heiness Renardo Sidney’s passing fame, will re-surface at Southeastern Louisiana next season for his final year of eligibility.  The 6’8, 265-lb forward was kicked off the team for getting into a fight with Sidney even though he was the team captain at the time and Sidney had already been suspended once for bad behavior.  Bailey is a nice pickup for the Lions — teams in the Southland typically don’t have that kind of skilled size in the post (5/4 in 19 MPG).  We think he’ll do well there.
2. Over at Memphis, Wesley Witherspoon, he of the let’s mock the assistant coach on the team bus fame, will remain suspended through Wednesday’s game versus Southern Mississippi, but he will be back at practice on Thursday and available to play in this weekend’s game at UAB on Saturday.  Perhaps Witherspoon has learned a lesson about comedic timing (e.g., probably not great when your season is headed back to the NIT), but Josh Pastner’s hope for the preseason all-CUSA forward is that he’ll start producing — the four games prior to his suspension resulted in a 7/4 average, well below his season numbers of 12/5.
3. On a similar note, Washington State’s Reggie Moore hasn’t been officially reinstated by head coach Ken Bone just yet, but all indications are that the player who was charged with marijuana possession in December will be back in action soon.  Bone allowed him back at practice yesterday and he said to reporters that “there’s a chance” he could be back in the lineup for Thursday night’s game against Arizona State.
4. It’s not always the best situation when the coach’s kid is starting as a freshman, but Creighton’s Doug McDermott is one such exception.  The son of head coach Greg has taken over the MVC by storm with a 13/7 average this year, good for first in both scoring and rebounding on the team and fourth in the conference.  The wild part is that if Dana Altman hadn’t taken off for Nike Nation up in Eugene last spring, then McDermott would be playing for league rival and tearing it up for Northern Iowa instead of Creighton.  Big, big things are already being predicted for the  young forward’s career, as White & Blue Review outlines here.
5. In an attempt to become the Maui Invitational for the eastern time zone, the Bahamas have passed NCAA eligibility requirements for its new tournament (called the Battle 4 Atlantis… and yes, we hate the name already) that will begin next Thanksgiving.  While in theory this sounds like a great idea, we’re a little concerned about using a converted ballroom as the “gym” (similar to what the Cancun Challenge and some of the Vegas tourneys have done in the past).  There isn’t a high school gym somewhere on those islands that could do the trick?

The Lede.  There weren’t a multitude of games tonight, but that never stopped us before.  And in fact, there were quite a number of good storylines coming out of a Tuesday night of college basketball.  From the zaniness that is UT basketball to Calipari’s foul mouthed motivational techniques to Jimmer’s bombs to the continuing humiliation of a Clemson visit to Chapel Hill, it’s all here.

Brian Williams Was the Hero On This Night (C. Compton/AJC)

Your Watercooler Moment.  Tennessee’s Season is a Four-Month Comedy Show.  Honestly, if you told us that the next thing Tennessee plans on doing is crushing Connecticut by 40 points in Hartford this weekend followed by Bruce Pearl chaining Scotty Hopson and Tobias Harris to a dogsled to get back to Knoxville after the game, we’d probably just shake our heads and figure that you were telling us the truth.  It’s just been that kind of a season for the Vols, and all indications are that it’s only going to continue on the crazy track.  Witness tonight’s game-winning play against Georgia in Athens.  With Bruce Pearl still watching his team from home during his eight-game SEC suspension, UT’s Tobias Harris threw up a wild airball from the corner as regulation time was running out.  Somehow Brian Williams reached over the top of Georgia’s Chris Barnes and, as the refs all swallowed their whistles, wrestled the ball from behind Barnes’ head as they both fell backwards.  Williams then threw the ball toward the rim while pulling Barnes down on top of him, and, of course… it went in.  He later went on to say that he’s “Kobe mixed with a little Dirk,” clearly aware of the fact that Kobe and Dirk both get away with murder down the stretch of close games.  You can watch the sequence below, but with the win tonight, the Vols have safely navigated the more difficult half of the SEC schedule with Pearl suspended — UT will play LSU and Alabama at home with road trips to Ole Miss and Auburn next.  Again, we wouldn’t be shocked if they lost to Auburn and won the other three at this point — it’s been that kind of a season in Knoxville.

Tonight’s Quick Hits…

• Jimmer Pulls Up From the Marriott.  Yeah, his range is ridiculous, as witnessed by this jumper from Al Dillard/JJ Redick-range during the first half of BYU’s win versus TCU this evening.  Fredette only went for 21/5 assts tonight, bringing down his nation-leading scoring average to 25.8 PPG one week after torching rival Utah for 47.  The Cougars moved to 4-0 in the Mountain West, though, with the easy win, but they’d be smart to focus carefully on their road trip to play Colorado State this weekend prior to the massive showdown against SDSU next week.  The CSU game has all the markings of a classic trap game.

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Game #109.  RTC Live is back at Northwestern for another Big 10 matchup; both of these teams need a win tonight in the worst way.

A struggling, young, Michigan team comes to Welsh-Ryan Arena tonight looking to break a four-game losing streak. The Wolverines have been competitive against some of the best teams in the country, including Kansas and Ohio State, but lost to Indiana by 19 their last time out. Northwestern looks to get back on track after blowing its second chance to beat Michigan State last week in overtime in Lansing. Star John Shurna scored just six points in that game and he’ll certainly be looking to rebound. On the other side, Darius Morris is one of the best young players in the Big Ten. He’s an exciting playmaker that averages 7.3 assists per game and also leads the team in scoring at 15.7 points per game. You can catch the game on the Big Ten Network and/or follow along with all the action right here live from Evanston, Ill. with John Templon of Chicago College Basketball.

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It’s no revelation to say that basketball is a city game.  More specifically, it’s an inner-city game.  And inner-city has essentially become code for urban decline, crime and unsavories — a more politically correct way of saying a place that a dude doesn’t want to find himself walking through late at night.  So basketball and hard-knock stories overcoming them are almost cliche at this point in our history — few high-level D1 players come from environments that anyone would describe as safe, and even fewer were raised in wealthy enclaves.  These days, it’s more surprising to hear about someone like Notre Dame’s Ben Hansbrough and his millionaire surgeon father than it is to learn of Missouri’s Marcus Denmon and his troubling childhood.  Crime or the threat of it is simply a fact of life for vast swaths of this country, and especially so in nearly every urban core across America where many of today’s players hail from.  Witness Jeremy Hazell’s shooting on Christmas Eve in New York as a stark example — all Hazell was doing was visiting family and friends during a couple days off but unlucky happenstance nearly cost him his life.  This is an all-too-familiar hometown storyline among many of today’s players, as a great deal of the United States’ 13,000+ annual murders occur in those places. 

Gutierrez Faces Far More Worries Off the Court Than On

That said, we’ve heard countless tales of players making it through rough-and-tumble environments over the years, but we’re not sure we’ve ever heard of anything like what Cal guard Jorge Gutierrez’s old haunts have turned into.  You see, Gutierrez is originally from the Mexican border state of Chihuahua, a place where drug cartel violence has reached astronomical proportions in recent years, to the point where regular folks like Gutierrez’s mother (a retired nurse), father (a teacher), siblings, grandparents and cousins no longer feel safe doing menial tasks such as going to the market or walking the dog.  As the Oakland Tribune discusses in this piece on Gutierrez’s family, the weight of constant peril on his mind is beyond what most of us will ever deal with.

My mom and dad tell me a little bit about it.  I don’t think they tell me a whole lot because they don’t want me to worry about it.  We used to be very friendly, but things changed.  It’s pretty bad right now. When I was there, it was all good. You could walk around the streets at night.  It changed (because of) the drug war. Right now it’s one of the most dangerous cities or states in the world. Nobody’s safe down there.

And it’s not just woe-is-me hyperbole on Gutierrez’s part.  There have been over 15,000 drug-related murders in Mexico in the last year (a country with a population one-third as large as the U.S.), over 34,000 in the last four years, and his state is ground zero for many of the beheadings and execution-style killings that make the news stateside.  In fact, the only other places in the entire world with as many bodies piling up on a regular basis are Iraq and Afghanistan, which as we all know are quite literally war-torn provinces.  The power of a group of battling druglords has created war-like conditions for many formerly-quiet places with our neighbors to the south, and even though the Gutierrez family has not  yet been specifically impacted, you have to wonder if it’s only a matter of time.  Hopefully the junior guard who has more than doubled his scoring output this season for Mike Montgomery’s squad will be able to use his versatile talents as a scorer and defender in the next year or so to earn enough money as a professional player to move his family to a safer place — if that’s not something we should all be rooting for, we don’t know what is.    

Game #108.  RTC Live returns to north Jersey for another Big east tilt between two teams that absolutely cannot afford another loss this early.

A winter advisory was issued for New York and New Jersey yesterday. Seton Hall fans know that means it is time for a basketball game, and true to form, Georgetown, off to an unexpectedly poor 2-4 start to their Big East regular season, will come to the Rock Tuesday evening, in search of conference win number three. The Hoyas will be led by guards Chris Wright and Austin Freeman, one of the acclaimed back courts in the conference, along with wing Jason Clark and a front court that features Hollis Thompson and Julian Vaughn. Seton Hall, also off to a 2-4 start, will be led by a veteran nucleus that includes starting wing Jeremy Hazell, forwards Jeff Robinson and Herb Pope. Seton Hall will match Georgetown’s backcourt with the veteran duo of Keon Lawrence and Jordan Theodore. The teams have split their last six metropolitan New York City meetings at an even 3-3, and with the return of Jeremy Hazell, Tuesday night’s game promises to be another shootout. RTC Live will be at the Rock at 7:00 PM Tuesday to describe the action and discuss these two talented teams.

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